Population decline

2144: 526:. There have been many estimates of Earth's carrying capacity, each generally predicting a high-low range of maximum human population possible. The lowest low estimate is less than one billion, the highest high estimate is over one trillion. A statistical analysis of these historical estimates revealed that the median of high estimates of all of the ranges would be 12 billion, and the median of low estimates would be about 8 billion. According to this analysis, this planet may be entering a zone where its human carrying capacity could be exceeded. However, the large variance in these studies’ estimates diminishes our confidence in them, as such estimates are very difficult to make with current data and methods. 2326: 1754: 1649: 2991: 1938: 2314: 395: 802: 180: 2759:

researcher, estimates the Lebanese population including undocumented migrants to be 8 million. Regardless, the population of Lebanese nationality continues to age and decline as financial struggles increase emigration and decrease marriages. Consequentially, the share of Lebanese nationals in Lebanon may have decreased to between 45 and 50 percent, a sharp decline from 80 percent in 2004, although a 2024 report estimated the share at 65 to 69 percent of the resident population.

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count put the population as of October 1, 2015, at 127.1 million, down by 947,000 or 0.7% from the previous quinquennial census. The gender ratio is increasingly skewed; some 106 women per 100 men live in Japan. In 2019, Japan's population fell by a record-breaking 276,000; if immigration is excluded from the figures, the drop would have been 487,000. Given the population boom of the 1950s and 1960s, the total population is still 52% above 1950 levels.

835: 1260: 1465: 1189: 1013: 872: 732: 1330: 908: 767: 1366: 1117: 2751:, according to the UN's population division, Lebanon's population increased massively from 5.05 million in 2011 to 6.5 million in 2015, but the population began declining again in 2016, with a total population of 6.26 million, 6.11 million in 2017, 5.95 million in 2018, and 5.76 million in 2019. Between 2018 and 2023, the decline in the number of Lebanese accelerated from 25,000 per year to 78,000 due to massive emigration caused by the 978: 2132: 1432: 1953:

highest of all nations; this includes loss of territory and heavy net emigration. Eastern Ukraine may yet lose many Russian-speaking citizens due to the new Russian citizenship law. An editorial projects significant gender and age imbalance in the population in Ukraine as a substantial problem if most refugees, as in other cases, do not return over time. Approximately 3.8 million more people have left the country during the

1225: 616: 1049: 1400: 1083: 598:, the "static" theory saw a population's absolute size as being one of the components of a country's national power. More recently, the "human capital" theory has emerged. This view holds that the quality and skill level of a labor force and the technology and resources available to it are more important than simply a nation's population size. While there were in the past advantages to high fertility rates, that " 9179: 7547: 2242:

has started to cause the population to decline rapidly, with over 117,000 people reportedly dying from COVID-19 in Poland by October 2022. However, Poland also saw a large number of Ukrainian Refugees move into Poland, with over 7.8 million people having crossed the border by October 2022 between Poland and Ukraine since the war began, of which 1.4 million have stayed in Poland.

479:'s economy also began to grow rapidly from 1999 onward, even though its population had been shrinking since 1992–93. Many Eastern European countries have been experiencing similar effects to Russia. Such renewed growth calls into question the conventional wisdom that economic growth requires population growth, or that economic growth is impossible during a population decline. 487:

stability, however, would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. Fertility moderately below replacement and population decline would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account.

2037:. From 2001 and 2011 main reason for the drop in population is due to a difference in the definition of permanent residency used in censuses till 2001 (censuses of 1948, 1953, 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001) and the one used in 2011. By 2021 the population dropped to 3,888,529, a 9.25% decrease from 2011 numbers. 2155:

Russia has become increasingly reliant on immigration to maintain its population; 2021 had the highest net immigration since 1994, despite which there was a small overall decline from 146.1 million to 145.4 million in 2021, the largest decline in over a decade. The natural death rate in January 2020,

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Although Italy had recorded more deaths than births continuously since 1993, the country's population only peaked in 2015 at 60,796,000 due to substantial immigration. The Italian population fell by a record amount in 2020, and in 2021, it recorded the lowest number of births since its unification in

1977:

Hungary's population peaked in 1980, at 10,709,000, and has continued its decline to under 10 million as of August 2010. This represents a decline of 7.1% since its peak; however, compared to neighbors situated to the East, Hungary peaked almost a decade earlier yet the rate has been far more modest,

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More recently (2009–2017) Japan has experienced a higher growth of GDP per capita than the United States, even though its population declined over that period. In the United States, the relationship between population growth and growth of GDP per capita has been found to be empirically insignificant.

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The table shows UN predictions of long-term decline of population growth rates in every region; however, short-term baby booms and healthcare improvements, among other factors, can cause reversals of trends. Population declines in Russia (1994–2008), Germany (1974–1984), and Ireland (1850–1961) have

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However, even assuming that more women would want to join the workforce, increasing their participation would give these countries only a short-term increase in their workforce, because at some point a participation ceiling is reached, further increases are not possible, and the impact on GDP growth

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The population of Poland in the last 20 years has caused many years of recorded growth and decline with the population. The recorded population of Poland between 2002 and 2006 had shown a decreasing trend while between 2007 and 2012 the population had an increasing trend. Though since 2020, COVID-19

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of 2.1 since the beginning of the 1990s and reached a new low in 2022, at 1. Thailand 's population decline started in 2020 and Thailand for the first time recorded more deaths than births in 2021. This negative natural population change amplified in 2022 and 2023 and, in the absence of substantial

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definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship, except for refugees not permanently settled in the country of asylum, who are generally considered part of the population of the country of origin. This means that population growth in this table includes

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A country can increase the size of its workforce by importing more migrants into their working age population. Even if the indigenous workforce is declining, qualified immigrants can reduce or even reverse this decline. However, this policy can only work if the immigrants can join the workforce and

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When Latvia split from the Soviet Union, it had a population of 2,666,567, which was very close to its peak population. The latest census recorded a population of 2,067,887 in 2011, while the state statistics reported an estimate of 1,986,086 for 2015. This represents a 25.5% decline since the peak

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turned negative as early as 2005, the 2010 census result figure was slightly higher, at just above 128 million, than the 2005 census. Factors implicated in the puzzling figures were more Japanese returnees than expected as well as changes in the methodology of data collection. However, the official

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economic (and other) effects from a slow and continuous population decline (e.g. due to low fertility rates) are mainly theoretical since such a phenomenon is a relatively new and unprecedented one. The results of many of these studies show that the estimated impact of population growth on economic

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After World War I birth rates in the United States and many European countries fell below replacement level. This prompted concern about population decline. The recovery of the birth rate in most western countries around 1940 that produced the "baby boom", with annual growth rates in the 1.0 – 1.5%

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The table below summarizes the United Nations projections for future population growth. Any such long-term projections are necessarily highly speculative. The UN divides the world into six regions. Under their projections, during the period 2045–2050, Europe's population will be in decline and all

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For example, starting in 2019 Japan, a country with a declining workforce, will allow five-year visas for 250,000 unskilled guest workers. Under the new measure, between 260,000 and 345,000 five-year visas will be made available for workers in 14 sectors suffering severe labor shortages, including

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A country with a declining population will struggle to fund public services such as health care, old age benefits, defense, education, water and sewage infrastructure, etc. To maintain some level of economic growth and continue to improve its citizens’ quality of life, national efforts to confront

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The decline in Russia's total population is among the largest in numbers, but not in percentage. After having peaked at 148,689,000 in 1991, the population then decreased, falling to 142,737,196 by 2008. This represents a 4.0% decrease in total population since the peak census figure. However, the

2012:

Bulgaria's population declined from a peak of 9,009,018 in 1989 and since 2001, has lost yet another 600,000 people, according to 2011 census preliminary figures to no more than 7.3 million, further down to 7,245,000. This represents a 24.3% decrease in total population since the peak and a −0.82%

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When Lithuania split from the Soviet Union, it had a population of 3.7 million, which was close to its peak population. The latest census recorded a population of 3.05 million in 2011, down from 3.4 million in 2001, further falling to 2,988,000 on September 1, 2012. This represents a 23.8% decline

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In Germany, a continuously low birth rate has been offset by waves of immigration. From 2002 to 2011 the population declined by 2 million, the most since the Cold War. The 2011 national census recorded a population of 80.2 million people, following which official estimates showed an increase of 3

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The UN is projecting that the decline that started in 2021 will continue, and if current demographic conditions persist, Russia's population would be 120 million in fifty years, a decline of about 17%. The UN's 2024 scenarios project Russia's population to be between 74 million and 112 million in

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The effects of a declining population can also be negative. As a country's population declines, GDP growth may grow even more slowly or may even decline. If the decline in total population is not matched by an equal or greater increase in productivity (GDP/capita), and if that condition continues

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stated that "egardless of how long the war lasts and whether or not there is further military escalation, Ukraine is unlikely to recover demographically from the consequences of the war. Even in 2040 it will have only about 35 million inhabitants, around 20% fewer than before the war (2021: 42.8

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Attempting to better understand the economic impact of these pluses and minuses, Lee et al. analyzed data from 40 countries. They found that typically fertility well above replacement and population growth would be most beneficial for government budgets. Fertility near replacement and population

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Uruguay's fertility rate had been consistently low in Latin America since the 20th century at 3 children per women, with the fertility rates in Latin American countries converging at 2 children beginning in the 1990s, but Uruguay's fertility rate declined sharply from 2 in 2015 to 1.28 in 2022,

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to 4,456,096 (by the old statistical method) of which 4,284,889 are permanent residents (by the new statistical method), in 2011, a decline of 8% (11.5% by the new definition of permanent residency in 2011 census). The main reasons for the decline since 1991 are: low birth rates, emigration and

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and subsequently experiencing war, the population dropped to 42,981,850 as of August 2014. This represents a 19.7% decrease in total population since the peak figure, but 16.8% above the 1950 population even without Crimea. Its absolute total decline (9,263,000) since its peak population is the

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The effects of a declining population can be positive. The single best gauge of economic success is the growth of GDP per person, not total GDP. GDP per person (also known as GDP per capita or per capita GDP) is a rough proxy for average living standards. A country can both increase its average

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Armenia's population peaked at 3,604,000 in 1991 and declined to a post-Soviet low of 2,961,500 at the beginning of 2020, in spite of a continuous natural population increase. This represented a 17.2% decrease in the total population since the peak census figure. Armenia's population began to

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reported that "Over the past three years the country has lost around 2 million more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war , disease and exodus." According to Russian economist Alexander Isakov, "Russia’s population has been declining and the war will reduce it further.

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Albania's population in 1989 recorded 3,182,417 people, the largest for any census. Since then, its population declined to an estimated 2,893,005 in January 2015. The decline has since accelerated with a 1.3% drop in population reported in 2021 leaving a total population of 2.79 million. This

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However, the number of births to refugees has been increasing and the country hosts a large population of unregistered refugees, other illegal residents, and other people without legal documentation, making it difficult to count the population of Lebanon. Dr. Ali Faour, a population affairs

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opportunities. It may also be noted that in recent times, a large proportion of white South African emigrants have chosen to return home. For instance, in May 2014, Homecoming Revolution estimated that around 340,000 white South Africans had returned to South Africa in the preceding decade.

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and Maxim Mironov, Russia may lose more than 10% of men aged 20–29 as a result of losses in the war and emigration. In June 2024, it was estimated that approximately 2% of all Russian men between the ages of 20 and 50 may have been killed or seriously wounded in Ukraine since February 2022.

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In the context of a stable or declining population, increasing workforce productivity is better than mostly short-term efforts to increase the size of the workforce. Economic theory predicts that in the long term, most growth will be attributable to intensive growth, that is, new

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China's population peaked at 1.41 billion in 2021 and began declining in 2022. China recorded more deaths than births for the first time in 2022 with a net decrease of 850 thousand, and this trend continued in 2023 when deaths overnumbered births by a margin of more than 2 million.

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declining populations will tend to focus on the threat of a declining GDP. Because a country's GDP is dependent on the size and productivity of its workforce, a country confronted with a declining population, will focus on increasing the size and productivity of that workforce.

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and later emigration. The population of the Republic of Ireland hit a bottom at 2.8 million in the 1961 census, but it then rose and in 2011 it was 4.58 million. As of 2020, it is estimated to be just under 5 million according to the country's Central Statistics Office.

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faster than its population is declining, the results, in terms of its economy, the quality of life of its citizens, and the environment, can be net positive. If it cannot increase workforce productivity faster than its population's decline, the results can be negative.

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The U.S. court of Appeals ruled that Norfolk was rightly concerned with the white exodus from public schools and that the decision to end mandatory busing was not based on discriminatory intent, but on the desire to keep enough whites in the school system to prevent

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Increasing workforce productivity through intensive growth can only succeed if workers who become unemployed through the introduction of new technology can be retrained so that they can keep their skills current and not be left behind. Otherwise, the result is

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currently (2018) lags men's in all but three countries worldwide. Among developed countries, the workforce participation gap between men and women can be especially wide. For example, currently (2018), in South Korea 59% of women work compared with 79% of men.

102:. To maintain its population, ignoring migration, a country requires a minimum fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman of childbearing age (the number is slightly greater than 2 because not all children live to adulthood). However, most societies experience a 428:

The era of rapid global population increase, and concomitant concern about a population explosion, has been short compared with the span of human history. It began roughly at the beginning of the industrial revolution and appears to be now drawing to a close.

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Pension reform. Many retirement policies encourage early retirement. For example, in 2018 less than 10% of Europeans between ages 64–74 were employed. Instead of encouraging work after retirement, many public pension plans restrict earnings or hours of

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Russian population then rose to 146,870,000 in 2018. This recent trend can be attributed to a lower death rate, higher birth rate, the annexation of Crimea and continued immigration, mostly from Ukraine and Armenia. It is some 40% above the 1950 population.

1685:'s total fertility rate has been consistently lower than that of Japan, breaking below 1 in 2018, and fell to 0.778 in 2022. As a result, its population fell in 2020 for the first time in the country's history from 51.8 million in 2020 to 51.6 in 2022. 3017:

other regions will experience significant reductions in growth; then, by the end of the 21st century (the period 2095–2100) three of these regions will be showing population decline and global population will have peaked and started to decline.

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difficult, but the UN estimates that it peaked in 2012 at 22.9 million and dropped to 18.9 million in 2018, a decline of 17%. Since then Syria's population has resumed growing, and the UN projects that by 2025 it will have reached 24.9 million.

630:. It is unclear how the threshold that constitutes a low birth rate, high death rate, etc. has been determined. It is also unclear what about footnotes 3, 4, 5, and 6 makes them significant enough for inclusion compared to other similar events. 114:

and a reduced need for children as a source of family labor or retirement welfare, both of which reduce the incentive to have many children. Better access to education for young women, which broadens their job prospects, is also often cited.

2016:

The Bulgarian population has fallen by more than 844,000 people, or 11.5 percent, in the last decade, the National Institute of Statistics in Sofia said during a presentation of the results so far of the 2021 census, the first since 2011.

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of India have one of the lowest fertility rates in the world (0.8 children per woman in 2017); this coupled with emigration has resulted in population decline at least since the 1940s. Their population has more than halved from its peak.

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Romania's 1991 census showed 23,185,084 people, and the October 2011 census recorded 20,121,641 people, while the state statistical estimate for 2014 is 19,947,311. This represents a decrease of 16.2% since the historical peak in 1991.

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In the last Soviet census of 1989, it had a population of 1,565,662, which was close to its peak population. The state statistics reported an estimate of 1,314,370 for 2016. This represents a 19.2% decline since the peak census figure.

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All these negative effects could be summarized under the heading of “Underpopulation”. Underpopulation is usually defined as a state in which a country's population has declined too much to support its current economic system.

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Furthermore, immigration from Europe has also supplemented the white population. The 2011 census found that 63,479 white people living in South Africa were born in Europe; of these, 28,653 had moved to South Africa since 2001.

6322: 69:, the global population grew very slowly, at about 0.04% per year. After about 1800, the growth rate accelerated to a peak of 2.1% annually during the 1962–1968 period, but since then, due to the worldwide collapse of the 5201: 2192:

Between 2011 and 2021, Portugal's population declined from 10.56 to 10.34 million people. The fertility rate has been consistently below 2 since the early 1980s, and the gap is increasingly being made up by immigrants.

1710:, thus starting an era of demographic decline for the foreseeable future. Taiwan's population fell from 23.6 million in 2020 to 23.4 in 2023, while the total fertility rate decreased from 1.05 in 2020 to 0.85 in 2023. 2879:

Raising the retirement age has the effect of increasing the working-age population, but raising the retirement age requires other policy and cultural changes if it is to have any impact on the size of the workforce:

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The UN's Population Division, assuming that South Korea's total fertility rate will rise from 0.72 in 2023 to 1.3 by 2100, projects its population to fall to nearly 22 million by 2100, a decline of about 58%.

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But after 1968 the global population growth rate started a long decline, and in the period 2022–2027 the UN estimates it to be about 0.9%, less than half of its peak during the period 1962 - 1968. Although

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is the ratio between the size of the workforce and the size of the working-age population. In 1969 the labor force participation rate of men in their prime years of 25–54 was 96% and in 2015 was under 89%.

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Belarus's population peaked at 10,151,806 in the 1989 Census and declined to 9,480,868 as of 2015 as estimated by the state statistical service. This represents a 7.1% decline since the peak census figure.

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Workplace cultural reform. Employer attitudes towards older workers must change. Extending working lives will require investment in training and working conditions to maintain the productivity of older

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Support for parents to combine family and work. This includes maternity-leave policies, parental-leave policies that grant (by law) leaves of absence from work to care for their children, and childcare

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One study estimated that increasing the retirement age by 2–3 years per decade between 2010 and 2050 would offset declining working-age populations faced by "old" countries such as Germany and Japan.

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Ukraine census in 1989 resulted in 51,452,034 people. Ukraine's own estimates show a peak of 52,244,000 people in 1993; however, this number has plummeted to 45,439,822 as of December 1, 2013. Having

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The UN's Population Division, assuming that Taiwan's total fertility rate will rise from 0.87 in 2023 to 1.33 by 2100, projects its population to fall to 10 million by 2100, a decline of about 57%.

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A combination of long-term trends, housing affordability, falling birthrates and rising death rates from the COVID-19 pandemic have caused as many as 16 US states to start declining in population.

1865:, and death rates generally rose sharply. In addition, in the 25 years after 1989, some 20 million people from Eastern Europe are estimated to have migrated to Western Europe or the United States. 5868: 1668:

The UN's Population Division, assuming that Japan's total fertility rate will rise from 1.2 in 2023 to 1.47 by 2100, projects its population to fall to 77 million by 2100, a decline of about 38%.

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went into recovery around the time their populations began to decline (2003–2006). In other words, both the total and per capita GDP in both countries grew more rapidly after 2005 than before.

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largely due to decreased births to women under 20. Uruguay recorded more deaths than births for the first time in 2021 and the population decline has been only offset slightly by immigration.

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report ... concluded that "Our nation is moving toward two societies, one black, one white" ... Black urban in-migration and White exodus had developed concentrations of impoverished persons.

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Regionallu, the mountainous and Christian-majority areas have low fertility rates comparable to European nations, with most of the population increase being concentrated in northern Lebanon.

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that produced tens of thousands of civilian victims and refugees. The latest census of 2016 reported a population of 3,511,372. This represents a 19.8% decline since the peak census figure.

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The UN's Population Division, assuming that China's total fertility rate will rise from 1 in 2022 to 1.34 by 2100, projects its population to be 633 million by 2100, a decline of about 56%.

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census figure, with only one of two nations worldwide falling below 1950 levels. The decline is caused by both a negative natural population growth (more deaths than births) and a negative

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Serbia recorded a peak census population of 7,822,795 in 1991 in the Yugoslav era, falling to 7,186,862 in the 2011 census. That represents a decline of 5.1% since its peak census figure.

8275: 91:, whose population has peaked and is currently (2022 – 2026) declining at the rate of about 0.04%. By 2050, Europe's population is projected to be declining at the rate of 0.3% per year. 2834:", published in 1934. Today, (2017) Sweden has extensive parental leave that allows parents to share 16 months of paid leave per child, the cost divided between both employer and State. 583:. This is particularly true in regions where different ethnic or racial groups have different growth rates. Low fertility rates that cause long-term population decline can also lead to 8713: 8422: 7717: 7943: 3240: 399: 5708: 2045:

Greece's population declined by about half a million people between its 2011 and 2021 censuses. The main drivers are increased emigration rates and lower birth rates following the

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Because of the global decline in the fertility rate, projections of future global population show a marked slowing of population growth and the possibility of long-term decline.

2374:'s population peaked at almost 2 million in 1953, and then declined to less than 700,000 by 2020. Other cities whose populations have dramatically shrunk since the 1950s include 8354: 8339: 8157: 8050: 375:

accelerated to around 0.6% per year, a rate that was over ten times the rate of population growth of the previous 12,000 years. This rapid increase in global population caused

5317: 6777: 3683:"Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study" 387:

range, and which peaked during the period 1962 -1968 at 2.1% per year, temporarily dispelled prior concerns about population decline, and the world was once again fearful of

73:, it has slowed to 0.9% as of 2023. The global growth rate in absolute numbers accelerated to a peak of 92.8 million in 1990, but has since slowed to 64.7 million in 2021. 6162:

Even success in desegregating downtown stores and buses was now undercut by the white exodus. As they fled the cities, many whites lost interest in the civil rights issue.

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is a set of government policies and cultural changes that promote parenthood and encourage women to bear more children. These generally fall into three broad categories:

7646: 2705:, or parts of that continent, driven by levels of violent crime and anti-colonial state policies. In recent decades, there has been a steady and proportional decline in 8137: 6791: 587:, an imbalance in the population age structure. Population aging in Europe due to low fertility rates has given rise to concerns about its impact on social cohesion. 7789: 7588: 2207:

increase again to 2,962,300 in 2021; 2,969,200 in 2022 and 2,990,900 in 2023. As of the beginning of 2024 the population had rebounded to 3,015,400 at 1978 levels.

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growth is generally small and can be positive, negative, or nonexistent. A recent meta-study found no relationship between population growth and economic growth.

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Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy

5764: 8611: 8236: 2709:'s white community, due to higher birth rates among other South African ethnic groups, as well as a high rate of emigration. In 1977, there were 4.3 million 2104:

of almost 1% per year, Venezuela's population has declined during the 2015-20 period due to emigration caused by threats of violence as well as shortages of

98:, from 5.3 in 1963 to 2.3 in 2021. The decline in the total fertility rate has occurred in every region of the world and is a result of a process known as 8589: 7581: 3445: 135:

to date have been focused on the possible negative economic consequences and have been centered on increasing the size and productivity of the workforce.

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The table below shows the countries that have been affected by population decline between 2010 and 2020. The term "population" used here is based on the

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Derek D. Headey; Andrew Hodge (2009). "The Effect of Population Growth on Economic Growth: A Meta-Regression Analysis of the Macroeconomic Literature".

8242: 7727: 6375: 5384: 4800: 5664: 3811: 425:. The decline in the total fertility rate has occurred in every region of the world and has brought renewed concern from some for population decline. 8408: 2216:

million over the next decade. The official estimate for 2020 was a slight decrease from 2019. Third-party estimates show a slight increase, instead.

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indicate that the growth rate of the human population of the planet will continue to slow and that before the end of the 21st century, it will reach

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Population decline can cause internal population pressures that then lead to secondary effects such as ethnic conflict, forced refugee flows, and

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of that workforce "intensive growth". In this case, GDP growth is driven by increased output per worker, and by extension, increased GDP/capita.

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seen long-term reversals. The UK, having seen almost zero growth during the period 1975–1985, is now (2015–2020) growing at 0.6% per year.

3002:, coupled with a net immigration rate that fails to compensate for the excess of deaths over births. A long-term decline is accompanied by 4094: 2930:

has also found that emigration can have net positive effects on sending countries, so this would argue against any attempts to reduce it.

8601: 8574: 8547: 8522: 8349: 8344: 7908: 7476: 5683:"Призванная республика – Из-за войны Россия может потерять больше 10% молодых мужчин. Анализ экономистов Олега Ицхоки и Максима Миронова" 3168: 1941: 438: 6667: 5144: 4734: 3495: 2849:

Encouraging those women in the working-age population who are not working to find jobs would increase the size of the workforce. Female

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is that segment of its working-age population that is employed. Working age population is generally defined as those people aged 15–64.

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In spite of these short-term population shocks, world population has continued to grow. From around 10,000 BC to the beginning of the

8933: 8673: 8080: 8006: 7679: 5491: 5453: 5341: 3362:"World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Medium variant tab, Population Growth Rate (percentage) column" 2815:

Financial incentives. These may include child benefits and other public transfers that help families cover the cost of children.

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In spite of a growing population at a national level, some formerly large American municipalities have dramatically shrunk after the

1895:. The state statistics reported an estimate of 4,010,000 for the 2014 Census, which includes estimated numbers for quasi-independent 6768: 6208: 3010:

to workers and children. When a sub-replacement fertility rate remains constant, population decline accelerates over the long term.

9203: 9198: 8918: 8542: 8287: 8001: 7948: 7892: 7864: 7722: 7686: 7669: 7421: 7112: 5789: 2686: 343: 59: 5599:. Институт демографии НИУ ВШЭ имени А.Г. Вишневского (Institute of Demography, National Research University A.G. Vishnevsky). 2022 414:, the UN predicts that global population will level out around 2086, and some sources predict the start of a decline before then. 9193: 8537: 8359: 8075: 7859: 7854: 7849: 7844: 7839: 7834: 7829: 7824: 7819: 7814: 7809: 7804: 7763: 7654: 5937: 5474:"World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Natural Change - Births minus Deaths column" 3982: 2143: 4706: 9244: 8923: 8369: 8364: 8247: 3664:"World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Population Growth Rate(percentage) column" 2147:

Stamp depicting Russian soldier killed in Ukraine. The war in that country has further exacerbated Russia's demographic crisis.

6031:"World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Total Population, as of 1 January column" 9182: 8938: 8616: 8099: 8040: 7928: 7923: 7913: 7664: 6973: 5335: 5092:"Albania: Prefectures, Municipalities, Municipal Units, Cities and Agglomerations – Population Statistics in Maps and Charts" 4114: 3528: 2169: 2080:

1861 at only 399,431, with its population being projected to shrink to 47.2 million in 2070, a decline of nearly 20 percent.

678: 17: 6748: 5177: 4247:"World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Variant tab, Total Population, as of 1 January column" 9033: 8881: 8329: 8282: 8177: 7966: 7799: 7712: 7079: 6493: 6447: 6278: 6218: 5073: 4949: 4774: 1903:. This represents a 25.7% decline since the peak census figure, but nevertheless somewhat higher than the 1950 population. 1862: 356:

grew very slowly, around 0.04% per year. During that period, population growth was governed by conditions now labeled the “

5199:

Naselja i stanovništvo Republike Hrvatske 1857.-2001. (eng. Settlements and Population of Croatia 1857–2001) (in Croatian)

2944:

Development economists would call increasing the size of the workforce "extensive growth". They would call increasing the

2530: 2519:

decreased from about 76.3 – 78% of the state's population in 1970 to 36.6%% in 2018 and 39.3% of the total population was

1304: 8886: 8532: 8517: 7938: 7481: 2702: 2228:, the population has fluctuated dramatically. The population of Ireland was 8 million in 1841, but it dropped due to the 247: 5622:"Natural population decrease in Russia down by 21% in Jan 2022 vs Jan 2021, but twice higher than in Jan 2020 - Rosstat" 5266: 467:

living standard and grow its total GDP even though its population growth is low or even negative. The economies of both

8983: 8797: 8787: 8708: 8631: 8214: 8055: 8035: 7551: 6536: 6155: 6122: 6086: 3489: 2490: 1964:

in Ukraine was 28% lower in the first six months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2021. A July 2023 study by the

6867: 4604: 4265: 3682: 143:

A reduction over time in a region's population can be caused by sudden adverse events such as outbursts of infectious

62:; however, current projections suggest that this long-term trend of steady population growth may be coming to an end. 9208: 8817: 8802: 8636: 8584: 8334: 8162: 8147: 7373: 6563: 6247: 6057: 5116: 4534: 2831: 2303: 1892: 951: 659: 200:

Historical episodes of short-term human population decline have been common and have been caused by several factors.

6514: 3291:

Coleman, David (25 January 2011). "Who's afraid of population decline? A critical examination of its consequences".

2927: 641: 9239: 8864: 8678: 8569: 8559: 7127: 6941: 2985: 2423: 1954: 76: 6888: 4804: 8998: 8747: 8725: 8683: 8653: 8606: 8489: 8472: 8455: 8431: 8089: 8070: 7933: 7522: 7456: 5231: 5029: 3401:"World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Total Fertility Rate column" 2713:, constituting 16.4% of the population at the time. An estimated 800,000 emigrated between 1995 and 2016, citing 591: 254: 184: 535:

from one calendar quarter to the next, it follows that a country would experience a decline in GDP, known as an

8703: 8698: 8383: 8209: 8094: 7471: 6814:"Men who do not work during their prime years: What do the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth data reveal?" 5840: 4825: 4504: 4312:"World Population Prospects 2024, Standard Projections, Compact File, Variant tab, Total Fertility Rate column" 4163: 2867: 2743:

Lebanon has recorded major waves of emigration from the late 19th century to early 20th century and during the

2046: 2020:

The country currently employs just over 6.5 million people, compared to 7.3 million in the previous workforce.

626: 3380:"World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Population Change column" 590:

A smaller national population can also have geo-strategic effects, but the correlation between population and

380: 8869: 8807: 8085: 7732: 6401: 5239: 5047: 4464: 2520: 107: 8465: 8324: 8319: 6989: 6147: 2126: 495: 9018: 5891:"Census Population (Germany): Federal States, Cities and Communes – Population Statistics, Charts and Map" 4526: 2325: 1969:

million) and the decline in the working-age population is likely to be the most severe and far-reaching."

1653: 9249: 8836: 8720: 8477: 7496: 7486: 7399: 7305: 6990:"World Population Prospects 2019, Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections" 6922: 6323:"B03002 HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN BY RACE – California – 2018 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates" 6297: 5750: 3892: 3738: 2495: 1677: 403: 6424: 272:

and other disasters which caused large-scale population losses (approximately 60 million excess deaths).

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of long-term national population decline can be net negative or positive. If a country can increase its

8194: 8065: 7794: 7659: 7368: 7026: 5597:"Миграция в России, предварительные итоги 2021 года (Migration in Russia, preliminary results of 2021)" 5509: 4837: 4144: 3598: 3260: 3188: 2969: 2466: 2462: 2454: 2355: 2299: 372: 353: 2866:

In the United States, the labor force participation of men has been falling since the late 1960s. The

539:. If these conditions become permanent, the country could find itself in a permanent recession. 9229: 9106: 9058: 8953: 8846: 8730: 7636: 7278: 7102: 5682: 4024:"Economic Downturns and Population Mental Health: Research Findings, Gaps, Challenges and Priorities" 3183: 3153: 2999: 2752: 2288: 1731: 1573: 1162: 368: 156: 9013: 5253: 4992: 3305: 9111: 9066: 8968: 8693: 8509: 7283: 7072: 4654:"Georgia: Regions, Major Cities & Urban Settlements – Population Statistics in Maps and Charts" 2534: 2458: 2101: 1758: 1722: 1661: 1269: 844: 321: 5432: 32:

This article is about human population decline. For radical losses in any particular species, see

9158: 9096: 8499: 8292: 8204: 8104: 7225: 6813: 6625: 6078: 5548: 4363: 4344: 3788: 2718: 2512: 1339: 1198: 1022: 881: 776: 741: 637: 559:

Difficulties in funding entitlement programs because there are fewer workers relative to retirees

6485: 6479: 677:

net changes from immigration and emigration. For a table of natural population changes, see the

9101: 8928: 7758: 7608: 7394: 7352: 7347: 7230: 7107: 4626:"Estonia: Regions, Municipalities, Cities and Towns – Population Statistics in Maps and Charts" 3300: 3158: 2850: 2533:

peaked in 2000 at 3.8 million and has since declined to 3.3 million in 2020, due to a negative

2411: 2229: 2000:

Bosnia and Herzegovina's population peaked at 4,377,033 in the 1991 Census, shortly before the

1698: 1648: 1234: 1126: 987: 806: 801: 556:

A crisis in end-of-life care for the elderly because there are insufficient caregivers for them

422: 314: 229: 215: 99: 80: 7573: 6270: 4682:"Latvia: Regions, Municipalities, Cities and Towns – Population Statistics in Maps and Charts" 3518: 1735:

immigration, this trend will continue in the coming years due to the very low fertility rate.

483:

This evidence shows that individual prosperity can grow during periods of population decline.

8484: 8257: 7461: 7325: 7164: 6792:"Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki: The "500+" Programme is an investment in Poland's future" 5951: 5151: 4838:"Population (by estimate) as of August 1, 2014. Average annual populations January–July 2014" 4738: 3479: 2748: 2714: 2674: 2566: 2550: 2470: 2259: 1058: 376: 364: 88: 84: 66: 6030: 5473: 5219:

Census of Population, Households and Dwellings 2011, First Results by Settlements (PDF file)

4388: 4311: 4246: 3663: 3400: 3379: 3361: 2922:

The table above shows that long-term persistent emigration, often caused by what is called "

2433:

In addition, starting from the 1950s, the United States has witnessed the phenomenon of the

1960:

The Russian invasion of Ukraine considerably deepened the country's demographic crisis. The

1891:

In the last Soviet census of 1989, it had a population of 5,400,841, which was close to its

1753: 1707: 1706:

recorded more deaths than births for the first time in 2020, despite recording virtually no

633: 511:

the environment through more money for investment in more stringent environmental protection

421:, from 5.3 in 1963 to 2.3 in 2021, as the world continues to move through the stages of the 9086: 8854: 8494: 8460: 8450: 7491: 7446: 7414: 7409: 7335: 7310: 7266: 6189: 5915: 4106: 4072: 3907: 3842: 3255: 3193: 3178: 2923: 2710: 2650: 2538: 2419: 2029: 599: 523: 518:

Another approach to possible positive effects of population decline is to consider Earth's

418: 388: 233: 192: 103: 95: 70: 5330:(in Serbian and English). Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. 2012. p. 14. 2507:

in some areas led to more families moving out of former areas. More recently, as of 2018,

297: 8: 9148: 9141: 9081: 8978: 8973: 8648: 8314: 7562: 7340: 7171: 7122: 7065: 6646: 5218: 3782:

Nicholas Eberstadt. 2005. "Russia, the Sick Man of Europe". Public Interest, Winter 2005

2990: 2957: 2678: 2553:

that have low or declining populations. Due to continued emigration, many departments in

2516: 2359: 2280: 2225: 1611: 1598: 1092: 411: 349: 337: 106:. The tendency of women in wealthier countries to have fewer children is attributed to a 3941: 3911: 3846: 2313: 87:, whose population is currently (2022–2026) declining at the rate of 0.5% per year, and 9163: 9121: 9116: 9076: 9028: 8792: 8688: 8564: 8045: 7874: 7466: 7404: 7192: 7181: 7159: 7143: 7030: 6848: 6729: 6395: 6326: 5596: 5410: 4923: 4210: 4185: 4048: 4023: 3863: 3717: 3636: 3326: 2744: 2670: 2646: 2638: 1913: 237: 33: 5890: 4186:"Adjusting to the fertility bust. What is the best response to declining populations?" 1937: 494:

growth that leads to an increase in both per capita GDP and total GDP can bring other

394: 9038: 8913: 8859: 8658: 8643: 7441: 7315: 7208: 7117: 6969: 6852: 6608: 6489: 6443: 6274: 6243: 6236: 6214: 6151: 6118: 6094: 6082: 6053: 5718: 5331: 4927: 4915: 4907: 4215: 4110: 4053: 3923: 3868: 3713: 3640: 3574: 3524: 3485: 3453: 3427: 3318: 3314: 3213: 3203: 3139:

Note: the UN's methods for generating these numbers are explained at this reference.

2618: 2578: 2438: 2379: 2272: 2136: 946: 941: 519: 333: 310: 285: 3785:"Russia, the sick man of Europe | Public Interest | Find Articles at BNET" 3593: 3520:

Accounting for War: Soviet Production, Employment, and the Defence Burden, 1940–1945

2926:", is often one of the major causes of a county's population decline. However, 594:

is a tenuous one. Technology and resources often play more significant roles. Since

8993: 8988: 8963: 8762: 8735: 8388: 7616: 7517: 7512: 7298: 7293: 7176: 7132: 6840: 6144:

After the Dream: Black and White Southerners since 1965 (Civil Rights and Struggle)

5726: 5621: 4897: 4205: 4197: 4102: 4043: 4035: 3915: 3858: 3850: 3709: 3626: 3330: 3310: 3198: 3173: 3003: 2779: 2415: 2339: 2251: 1585: 584: 580: 547: 444: 289: 111: 55: 8400: 4902: 4885: 4760: 3831:"Is Low Fertility Really a Problem? Population Aging, Dependency, and Consumption" 9234: 9126: 9043: 9023: 9003: 8903: 8752: 8199: 7958: 7527: 7288: 7022: 6559: 6518: 6050:

The world's cities : contrasting regional, national, and global perspectives

5938:"Population and Migration Estimates April 2019 - CSO - Central Statistics Office" 5205: 4608: 3245: 2915: 2775: 2391: 2343: 1744: 1569: 448: 357: 183:

Collapse of population in Mexico during the 16th century, attributed to repeated

164: 4941: 4778: 4482: 2489:, although racial segregation of public schools had ended there long before the 250:

in the 13th century, which may have reduced the population of Hungary by 20–40%,

9153: 9048: 8948: 8876: 8663: 7532: 7050:

Population and the Japanese Economy: Longevity, Innovation, and Economic Growth

5528: 5293:"Romania: Counties and Major Cities – Population Statistics in Maps and Charts" 5292: 5270: 3812:"The Great Growth Disconnect: Population Growth Does Not Equal Economic Growth" 3566: 3250: 3235: 2698: 2626: 2450: 2034: 1992:

represents a decrease of 12% in total population since the peak census figure.

1842: 1643: 261: 179: 4039: 2747:

which led to the exodus of almost one million people from Lebanon. Due to the

2606: 2371: 1857:), as well as high emigration rates. In Russia and the former communist bloc, 1845:

is rapidly shrinking due to low birth rates, very high death rates (linked to

522:. Global population decline would begin to counteract the negative effects of 94:

Population growth has declined mainly due to the abrupt decline in the global

9223: 9136: 9091: 9071: 8893: 8668: 7271: 7220: 6035: