1092:
241:
49:
414:
931:. Therefore, an accurate track forecast is essential in order to produce an accurate tropical cyclone rainfall forecast. However, as a result of global warming, the heat that has built up on the ocean's surface has allowed storms and hurricanes to capture more water vapour and, given the increased temperatures in the atmosphere also, retain the moisture for a longer capacity. This results in incredible amounts of rainfall upon striking land which can often be the most damaging aspect of a hurricane.
289:'s center, and its effects, are expected to be at some point in the future. There are several elements to tropical cyclone forecasting: track forecasting, intensity forecasting, rainfall forecasting, storm surge, tornado, and seasonal forecasting. While skill is increasing in regard to track forecasting, intensity forecasting skill remains unchanged over the past several years. Seasonal forecasting began in the 1980s in the Atlantic basin and has spread into other basins in the years since.
446:
940:
858:
1040:. An accurate forecast track is required in order to produce accurate storm surge forecasts. However, if the landfall point is uncertain, a maximum envelope of water (MEOW) map can be generated based on the direction of approach. If the forecast track itself is also uncertain, a maximum of maximums (MoM) map can be generated which will show the worst possible scenario for a hurricane of a specific strength.
430:
of the forces that act on tropical cyclones, and a wealth of data from Earth-orbiting satellites and other sensors, scientists have increased the accuracy of track forecasts over recent decades. An accurate track forecast is important, because if the track forecast is incorrect, forecasts for intensity, rainfall, storm surge, and tornado threat will also be incorrect.
1281:...1984...Gray also launched the endeavor that would make him most famous: a seasonal forecasting scheme for the Atlantic basin, which would predict the number of hurricanes and tropical storms months before their actual arrival. ... It's hard to overstate the breakthrough that Gray had achieved with his forecasting scheme.
391:(QBO), and Caribbean basin sea-level pressures. The endeavour proved modestly successful. He subsequently issued forecasts ahead of the start of the Atlantic hurricane season in May and before the peak of the season in August. Students and colleagues joined his forecast team in the following years, including
1667:
Rappaport, Edward N; Franklin, James L; Avila, Lixion A; Baig, Stephen R; Beven II, John L; Blake, Eric S; Burr, Christopher A; Jiing, Jiann-Gwo; Juckins, Christopher A; Knabb, Richard D; Landsea, Christopher W; Mainelli, Michelle; Mayfield, Max; McAdie, Colin J; Pasch, Richard J; Sisko, Christopher;
429:
Because of the forces that affect tropical cyclone tracks, accurate track predictions depend on determining the position and strength of high- and low-pressure areas and predicting how those areas will change during the life of a tropical system. Combining forecast models with increased understanding
342:
The launch of the first weather satellite, TIROS-I, in 1960, introduced new forecasting techniques that remain important to tropical cyclone forecasting to the present. In the 1970s, buoys were introduced to improve the resolution of surface measurements, which until that point, were not available at
512:
Forecasters say they are less skilful at predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones than cyclone track. Available computing power limits forecasters' ability to accurately model a large number of complex factors, such as exact topology and atmospheric conditions, though with increased experience
425:
determines 70 to 90 percent of a tropical cyclone's motion. The deep-layer mean flow is the best tool in determining track direction and speed. If storms are significantly sheared, use of a lower-level wind is a better predictor. Knowledge of the beta effect can be used to steer a tropical cyclone,
528:
An accurate track forecast is essential to creating accurate intensity forecasts, particularly in an area with large islands such as the western north
Pacific and the Caribbean Sea, as proximity to land is an inhibiting factor to developing tropical cyclones. A strong hurricane/typhoon/cyclone can
382:
Utilizing his findings, Gray developed an objective, statistical forecast for seasonal hurricane activity; he predicted only the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, foregoing specifics on tracks and potential landfalls due to the aforementioned inconsistencies. Gray issued
1048:
The location of most tropical cyclone-related tornadoes is their northeast quadrant in the
Northern Hemisphere and southeast quadrant in the Southern Hemisphere. Like most of the other forecasts for tropical cyclone effects, an accurate track forecast is required in order to produce an accurate
497:
at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. These numbers were close to the 10-year average for the 1982–1991-time frame. However, these errors have decreased to near 50-100-150 as NHC forecasters become more accurate. The "danger area" to be avoided is constructed by expanding the forecast path by a
969:
Historically, tropical cyclone tracking charts were used to include the past track and prepare future forecasts at
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers. The need for a more modernized method for forecasting tropical cyclones had become apparent to
363:
years. He was the first researcher to make a connection between such events and positive results led him to pursue further research. He found numerous factors across the globe influence tropical cyclone activity, such as connecting wet periods over the
African
1067:
By looking at annual variations in various climate parameters, forecasters can make predictions about the overall number and intensity of tropical cyclones that will occur in a given season. For example, when constructing its seasonal outlooks, the
994:. This provided the NHC with a multitasking software environment which allowed them to improve efficiency and cut the time required to make a forecast by 25% or 1 hour. ATCF was originally developed for use within
326:
in tropical cyclone forecasting. The next decade saw the advent of aircraft-based reconnaissance by the military, starting with the first dedicated flight into a hurricane in 1943, and the establishment of the
513:
and understanding, even models with the same resolution can be tuned to more accurately reflect real-world behaviour. Another weakness is lack of frequent wind speed measurements in the eye of the storm. The
426:
since it leads to a more northwest heading for tropical cyclones in the
Northern Hemisphere. It is also best to smooth out short term wobbles of the storm centre to determine a more accurate trajectory.
529:
weaken if an outer eye wall forms (typically around 80–160 kilometres (50–99 mi) from the centre of the storm), choking off the convection within the inner eye wall. Such weakening is called an
974:
was using paper maps, acetate, grease pencils, and disparate computer programs to forecast tropical cyclones. The
Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) software was developed by the
1036:
urricanes. It uses the size of a storm, its intensity, its forward motion, and the topography of the coastal plain to estimate the depth of a storm surge at any individual grid point across the
302:
The methods through which tropical cyclones are forecast have changed with the passage of time. The first known forecasts in the
Western Hemisphere were made by Lt. Col. William Reed of the
640:
871:
Tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting is important, since between 1970 and 2004, inland flooding from tropical cyclones caused most of the fatalities from tropical cyclones in the
1571:
923:, can lead to excessive amounts even from systems moving at an average forward motion. A combination of two of these factors could be especially crippling, as was seen during
489:) tracking and prediction. The 1-2-3 rule has two parts, the 34-Knot Rule which is the danger area to be avoided. The 1-2-3 rule itself refers to the rounded long-term
847:
314:
during the 1870s. Before the early 1900s, though, most forecasts were done by direct observations at weather stations, which were then relayed to forecast centres via
821:
795:
709:
879:
is common to tropical cyclones near a landmass, there are a few factors which lead to excessive rainfall from tropical cyclones. Slow motion, as was seen during
769:
749:
729:
682:
662:
1416:
Frequently Asked
Questions: What are "concentric eyewall cycles" (or "eyewall replacement cycles") and why do they cause a hurricane's maximum winds to weaken?
919:
acts to magnify amounts due to upslope flow into the mountains. Strong upper level forcing from a trough moving through the
Westerlies, as was the case during
1411:
454:
336:
1583:
Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson & Ted L. Tsui (December 1990). "The
Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)".
1729:
215:
1378:
Annual average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1989–2005, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.
1317:
Annual average model track errors for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1994–2005, for a homogeneous selection of "early" models.
1805:
987:
960:
219:
514:
143:
383:
his first seasonal forecast ahead of the 1984 season, which used the statistical relationships between tropical cyclone activity, the
269:
193:
1400:
1570:
Welch, C. (2017). How climate change likely strengthened recent hurricanes. National Geographic . 20 September 2017. Available at:
211:
199:
1498:
310:
measurements as the basis of his forecasts. Benito Vines introduced a forecast and warning system based on cloud cover changes in
203:
1800:
1528:
1296:
1274:
1188:
866:
322:
in the early twentieth century that observations from ships at sea were available to forecasters. The 1930s saw the usage of
207:
168:
163:
100:
138:
1389:
1532:
1341:
L. T. William Schulz and Patrick Dixon (Fall 1994). "Hurricane Emily Threatens the Atlantic Fleet: Tale of Two Sorties".
971:
234:
849:, the graph generated by this function corresponds to the 99th percentile of empirical tropical cyclone intensity data.
384:
404:
188:
95:
1058:
991:
964:
558:
408:
379:. However, his findings also showed inconsistencies when only looking at a single factor as a primary influence.
1649:
1624:
1604:
1472:
1445:
1156:
1129:
1073:
578:
1762:
1668:
Stewart, Stacy R; Tribble, Ahsha N (April 2009). "Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center".
1062:
262:
110:
979:
230:
153:
88:
1205:
517:, launched by NASA in 2016, is expected to provide much more data compared to sporadic measurements by
422:
388:
17:
1721:
1373:
1312:
1262:
1252:
1069:
983:
975:
944:
887:, can lead to high amounts. The presence of topography near the coast, as is the case across much of
530:
490:
115:
1690:
1097:
948:
376:
335:
began to be used in the United States, and research reconnaissance flights by the precursor of the
303:
255:
245:
1779:
1666:
1134:
554:
439:
181:
148:
133:
1685:
1559:
Fifth International Workshop On Tropical Cyclones: Topic 2 Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes.
880:
65:
826:
1266:
561:. Maps created from this equation show values of the maximum achievable intensity due to the
507:
498:
radius equal to the respective hundreds of miles plus the forecast 34-Knot wind field radii.
70:
1582:
800:
774:
1766:
1677:
1636:
1592:
1459:
1316:
1143:
687:
1515:
8:
982:(JTWC) beginning in 1986, and used since 1988. During 1990 the system was adapted by the
392:
307:
1681:
1640:
1596:
1463:
1147:
1703:
1495:
1450:
896:
754:
734:
714:
667:
647:
546:
356:
1431:
1360:
1558:
1477:
1377:
1270:
1184:
522:
413:
328:
1725:
1707:
1695:
1644:
1600:
1467:
1427:
1151:
286:
40:
1536:
1293:
48:
1502:
1446:"Sea Surface Temperature and the Maximum Intensity of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones"
1300:
928:
924:
920:
900:
884:
369:
352:
562:
486:
450:
684:
is the sea surface temperature underneath the center of the tropical cyclone,
1794:
1699:
1481:
1415:
1328:
1037:
872:
542:
494:
332:
75:
1767:
Storm Prediction Center Forecast Support For Landfalling Tropical Cyclones.
518:
553:
or MPI, to compute the upper limit of tropical cyclone intensity based on
445:
1256:
1007:
939:
565:
of the atmosphere at the time of the last model run (either 0000 or 1200
105:
1750:
1230:
1176:
1105:
1077:
904:
570:
323:
1340:
908:
360:
951:
is light blue, while the storm's actual track is the white line over
482:
315:
857:
1367:
970:
operational weather forecasters by the mid-1980s. At that time the
372:
27:
Science of forecasting how a tropical cyclone moves and its effects
1625:"The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (Version 3.2)"
1622:
952:
1306:
888:
474:
311:
1012:
The main storm surge forecast model in the Atlantic basin is
916:
912:
892:
876:
478:
365:
319:
1175:
1650:
10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<1231:tatcfs>2.3.co;2
1605:
10.1175/1520-0434(1990)005<0653:TATCFS>2.0.CO;2
1473:
10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1324:SSTATM>2.0.CO;2
1157:
10.1175/1520-0434(1990)005<0185:TNHCPA>2.0.CO;2
573:
into account. MPI is computed using the following formula:
1181:
Hurricane Watch: Forecasting the Deadliest Storms on Earth
1720:
1401:
Predicting A Hurricane's Intensity May Have Gotten Easier
995:
566:
1726:"Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH)"
1130:"The National Hurricane Center—Past, Present and Future"
664:
is the maximum potential velocity in meters per second;
1437:
1418:
Hurricane Research Division. Retrieved on 2006-12-14.
829:
803:
777:
757:
737:
717:
690:
670:
650:
581:
438:"1-2-3 rule" redirects here. Not to be confused with
1412:
Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
1087:
1443:
1390:Why Is It Hard To Predict A Hurricane's Intensity?
1206:"Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane For 1984"
1072:in the United States considers the effects of the
841:
815:
789:
763:
743:
723:
703:
676:
656:
634:
1623:Sampson, Charles R; Schrader, Ann J (June 2000).
1294:SECTION 1. INFLUENCES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION.
1123:
1121:
1063:Tropical cyclone § Long-term_activity_trends
355:noticed a trend of low hurricane activity in the
1792:
1245:
1171:
1169:
1167:
1080:over the oceans, and ocean surface temperature.
998:, before later being adapted to Unix and Linux.
1782:National Public Radio. Retrieved on 2013-05-03.
1730:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
1629:Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
1508:
1521:
1203:
1118:
536:
417:Track errors for the Atlantic Basin since 1970
1444:DeMaria, Mark; John Kaplan (September 1994).
1164:
988:National Centers for Environmental Prediction
961:Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System
263:
1197:
711:is a reference temperature (30 °C) and
395:, Paul W. Mielke Jr., and Kenneth J. Berry.
1780:What's on the Horizon for Hurricane Season?
1405:
1255:(2007). "Chapter 4: Lay that Matrix Down".
515:Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System
306:at Barbados in 1847. Reed mostly utilized
270:
256:
1778:Ira Flatow, Science Friday (2009-08-21).
1689:
1648:
1471:
1155:
635:{\displaystyle V=A+B\cdot e^{C(T-T_{0})}}
1662:
1660:
1618:
1616:
1614:
938:
856:
444:
412:
1421:
943:Forecast model tracks within ATCF. The
569:). However, MPI does not take vertical
14:
1793:
1251:
1127:
934:
285:is the science of forecasting where a
1657:
1611:
1576:
867:Tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting
1806:Numerical climate and weather models
1052:
473:) is a guideline commonly taught to
1533:Federal Emergency Management Agency
1361:"What is the Mariner's 1-2-3 rule?"
972:United States Department of Defense
24:
1231:"The Tropical Meteorology Project"
1223:
557:and atmospheric profiles from the
457:shown with 1-2-3 rule predictions.
405:Tropical cyclone track forecasting
47:
25:
1817:
1059:Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
1233:. Colorado State University. n.d
1090:
992:Central Pacific Hurricane Center
318:. It wasn't until the advent of
239:
1772:
1756:
1743:
1714:
1564:
1551:
1488:
1394:
1383:
1353:
1128:Sheets, Robert C. (June 1990).
965:Tropical cyclone tracking chart
493:forecast errors of 100-200-300
409:Tropical cyclone forecast model
331:in 1944. In the 1950s, coastal
1535:. 5 April 2006. Archived from
1334:
1322:
1286:
1204:William M Gray (24 May 1984).
1183:. Knopf Doubleday Publishing.
1001:
771:are curve-fit constants. When
627:
608:
523:hurricane-penetrating aircraft
13:
1:
1432:Maximum Intensity Estimation.
1111:
1076:, 25–40 year tropical cycle,
433:
297:
1801:Tropical cyclone meteorology
1074:El Niño-Southern Oscillation
980:Joint Typhoon Warning Center
533:, and is usually temporary.
501:
385:El Niño–Southern Oscillation
346:
283:Tropical cyclone forecasting
246:Tropical cyclones portal
7:
1211:. Colorado State University
1083:
852:
551:maximum potential intensity
537:Maximum potential intensity
337:Hurricane Research Division
10:
1822:
1179:and Jack Williams (2001).
1056:
1043:
1005:
986:(NHC) for use at the NHC,
958:
864:
861:r-CLIPER for Isabel (2003)
505:
437:
402:
389:Quasi-biennial oscillation
292:
1751:Slosh Data... what is it.
1722:National Hurricane Center
1374:National Hurricane Center
1313:National Hurricane Center
1070:Climate Prediction Center
1049:tornado threat forecast.
984:National Hurricane Center
976:Naval Research Laboratory
531:eyewall replacement cycle
423:large-scale synoptic flow
1769:Retrieved on 2013-05-03.
1753:Retrieved on 2007-04-15.
1700:10.1175/2008WAF2222128.1
1561:Retrieved on 2007-04-17.
1518:Retrieved on 2006-06-24.
1505:Retrieved on 2013-05-03.
1434:Retrieved on 2006-10-20.
1380:Retrieved on 2006-11-30.
1319:Retrieved on 2006-11-30.
1303:Retrieved on 2007-04-10.
1098:Tropical cyclones portal
842:{\displaystyle C=0.1813}
559:latest global model runs
549:around 1988, called the
398:
377:United States East Coast
304:Corps of Royal Engineers
198:Lists of retired names:
194:List of historical names
128:Climatology and tracking
1670:Weather and Forecasting
1585:Weather and Forecasting
1299:5 February 2012 at the
1135:Weather and Forecasting
555:sea surface temperature
440:1-2-3 rule (statistics)
182:Tropical cyclone naming
956:
947:official forecast for
862:
843:
817:
816:{\displaystyle B=55.8}
791:
790:{\displaystyle A=28.2}
765:
745:
725:
705:
678:
658:
636:
458:
418:
343:all oversea surfaces.
139:Climate change effects
66:Central dense overcast
52:
1749:PC Weather Products.
1573:(accessed 9-11-2017).
942:
860:
844:
818:
792:
766:
746:
726:
706:
704:{\displaystyle T_{0}}
679:
659:
637:
508:Tropical cyclogenesis
448:
416:
51:
1765:(1998-01-11 to 18).
1343:Mariners Weather Log
827:
801:
775:
755:
735:
715:
688:
668:
648:
579:
467:mariner's 1-2-3 rule
357:North Atlantic basin
169:Rainfall climatology
164:Rainfall forecasting
101:Warnings and watches
1682:2009WtFor..24..395R
1641:2000BAMS...81.1231S
1597:1990WtFor...5..653M
1464:1994JCli....7.1324D
1148:1990WtFor...5..185S
1016:, which stands for
935:Operational methods
393:Christopher Landsea
351:In the late 1970s,
308:barometric pressure
35:Part of a series on
1724:(3 October 2011).
1557:William M. Frank.
1501:2007-05-02 at the
1451:Journal of Climate
957:
897:Dominican Republic
863:
839:
813:
787:
761:
741:
721:
701:
674:
654:
632:
547:mathematical model
459:
419:
368:to an increase in
53:
1276:978-0-15-101287-9
1190:978-0-375-70390-4
1053:Seasonal forecast
764:{\displaystyle C}
744:{\displaystyle B}
724:{\displaystyle A}
677:{\displaystyle T}
657:{\displaystyle V}
329:Hurricane Hunters
280:
279:
204:Pacific hurricane
41:Tropical cyclones
16:(Redirected from
1813:
1783:
1776:
1770:
1760:
1754:
1747:
1741:
1740:
1738:
1736:
1718:
1712:
1711:
1693:
1664:
1655:
1654:
1652:
1635:(6): 1231–1240.
1620:
1609:
1608:
1580:
1574:
1568:
1562:
1555:
1549:
1548:
1546:
1544:
1529:"Are You Ready?"
1525:
1519:
1516:Inland Flooding.
1512:
1506:
1492:
1486:
1485:
1475:
1458:(9): 1324–1334.
1441:
1435:
1428:Kerry A. Emanuel
1425:
1419:
1409:
1403:
1398:
1392:
1387:
1381:
1371:
1365:
1364:
1357:
1351:
1350:
1338:
1332:
1326:
1320:
1310:
1304:
1290:
1284:
1283:
1249:
1243:
1242:
1240:
1238:
1227:
1221:
1220:
1218:
1216:
1210:
1201:
1195:
1194:
1173:
1162:
1161:
1159:
1125:
1100:
1095:
1094:
1093:
848:
846:
845:
840:
822:
820:
819:
814:
796:
794:
793:
788:
770:
768:
767:
762:
750:
748:
747:
742:
730:
728:
727:
722:
710:
708:
707:
702:
700:
699:
683:
681:
680:
675:
663:
661:
660:
655:
641:
639:
638:
633:
631:
630:
626:
625:
287:tropical cyclone
272:
265:
258:
244:
243:
242:
32:
31:
21:
1821:
1820:
1816:
1815:
1814:
1812:
1811:
1810:
1791:
1790:
1787:
1786:
1777:
1773:
1761:
1757:
1748:
1744:
1734:
1732:
1719:
1715:
1691:10.1.1.207.4667
1665:
1658:
1621:
1612:
1581:
1577:
1569:
1565:
1556:
1552:
1542:
1540:
1539:on 29 June 2006
1527:
1526:
1522:
1513:
1509:
1503:Wayback Machine
1493:
1489:
1442:
1438:
1426:
1422:
1410:
1406:
1399:
1395:
1388:
1384:
1372:
1368:
1359:
1358:
1354:
1339:
1335:
1329:Mariner's Guide
1327:
1323:
1311:
1307:
1301:Wayback Machine
1291:
1287:
1277:
1250:
1246:
1236:
1234:
1229:
1228:
1224:
1214:
1212:
1208:
1202:
1198:
1191:
1174:
1165:
1126:
1119:
1114:
1096:
1091:
1089:
1086:
1065:
1055:
1046:
1010:
1004:
967:
959:Main articles:
937:
929:Central America
925:Hurricane Mitch
921:Hurricane Floyd
901:Central America
885:Hurricane Wilma
881:Hurricane Danny
869:
855:
828:
825:
824:
802:
799:
798:
776:
773:
772:
756:
753:
752:
736:
733:
732:
716:
713:
712:
695:
691:
689:
686:
685:
669:
666:
665:
649:
646:
645:
621:
617:
604:
600:
580:
577:
576:
539:
510:
504:
443:
436:
411:
401:
370:major hurricane
349:
339:began in 1954.
300:
295:
276:
240:
238:
237:
233:
225:
224:
208:Pacific typhoon
184:
174:
173:
129:
121:
120:
91:
81:
80:
61:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
1819:
1809:
1808:
1803:
1785:
1784:
1771:
1755:
1742:
1713:
1656:
1610:
1591:(4): 653–600.
1575:
1563:
1550:
1520:
1514:Ed Rappaport.
1507:
1487:
1436:
1430:(1997-08-07).
1420:
1404:
1393:
1382:
1366:
1352:
1333:
1321:
1315:(2013-04-03).
1305:
1285:
1275:
1244:
1222:
1196:
1189:
1163:
1142:(2): 185–232.
1116:
1115:
1113:
1110:
1109:
1108:
1102:
1101:
1085:
1082:
1054:
1051:
1045:
1042:
1003:
1000:
949:Ernesto (2006)
936:
933:
854:
851:
838:
835:
832:
812:
809:
806:
786:
783:
780:
760:
740:
720:
698:
694:
673:
653:
629:
624:
620:
616:
613:
610:
607:
603:
599:
596:
593:
590:
587:
584:
563:thermodynamics
538:
535:
503:
500:
495:nautical miles
487:tropical storm
481:(specifically
435:
432:
400:
397:
348:
345:
333:weather radars
299:
296:
294:
291:
278:
277:
275:
274:
267:
260:
252:
249:
248:
235:Media coverage
227:
226:
223:
222:
196:
191:
185:
180:
179:
176:
175:
172:
171:
166:
161:
156:
151:
146:
141:
136:
130:
127:
126:
123:
122:
119:
118:
113:
108:
103:
98:
92:
87:
86:
83:
82:
79:
78:
73:
68:
62:
59:
58:
55:
54:
44:
43:
37:
36:
26:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
1818:
1807:
1804:
1802:
1799:
1798:
1796:
1789:
1781:
1775:
1768:
1764:
1763:Roger Edwards
1759:
1752:
1746:
1731:
1727:
1723:
1717:
1709:
1705:
1701:
1697:
1692:
1687:
1683:
1679:
1675:
1671:
1663:
1661:
1651:
1646:
1642:
1638:
1634:
1630:
1626:
1619:
1617:
1615:
1606:
1602:
1598:
1594:
1590:
1586:
1579:
1572:
1567:
1560:
1554:
1538:
1534:
1530:
1524:
1517:
1511:
1504:
1500:
1497:
1491:
1483:
1479:
1474:
1469:
1465:
1461:
1457:
1453:
1452:
1447:
1440:
1433:
1429:
1424:
1417:
1413:
1408:
1402:
1397:
1391:
1386:
1379:
1375:
1370:
1362:
1356:
1348:
1344:
1337:
1330:
1325:
1318:
1314:
1309:
1302:
1298:
1295:
1289:
1282:
1278:
1272:
1268:
1264:
1260:
1259:
1254:
1253:Mooney, Chris
1248:
1232:
1226:
1207:
1200:
1192:
1186:
1182:
1178:
1172:
1170:
1168:
1158:
1153:
1149:
1145:
1141:
1137:
1136:
1131:
1124:
1122:
1117:
1107:
1104:
1103:
1099:
1088:
1081:
1079:
1075:
1071:
1064:
1060:
1050:
1041:
1039:
1038:United States
1035:
1031:
1027:
1023:
1019:
1015:
1009:
999:
997:
993:
989:
985:
981:
977:
973:
966:
962:
954:
950:
946:
941:
932:
930:
926:
922:
918:
914:
910:
906:
902:
898:
894:
890:
886:
882:
878:
874:
873:United States
868:
859:
850:
836:
833:
830:
810:
807:
804:
784:
781:
778:
758:
738:
718:
696:
692:
671:
651:
642:
622:
618:
614:
611:
605:
601:
597:
594:
591:
588:
585:
582:
574:
572:
568:
564:
560:
556:
552:
548:
544:
543:Kerry Emanuel
534:
532:
526:
524:
520:
519:weather buoys
516:
509:
499:
496:
492:
488:
484:
480:
476:
472:
468:
464:
456:
452:
447:
441:
431:
427:
424:
415:
410:
406:
396:
394:
390:
386:
380:
378:
374:
371:
367:
362:
358:
354:
344:
340:
338:
334:
330:
325:
321:
317:
313:
309:
305:
290:
288:
284:
273:
268:
266:
261:
259:
254:
253:
251:
250:
247:
236:
232:
229:
228:
221:
220:South Pacific
217:
213:
209:
205:
201:
197:
195:
192:
190:
187:
186:
183:
178:
177:
170:
167:
165:
162:
160:
157:
155:
152:
150:
147:
145:
142:
140:
137:
135:
132:
131:
125:
124:
117:
114:
112:
109:
107:
104:
102:
99:
97:
94:
93:
90:
85:
84:
77:
74:
72:
69:
67:
64:
63:
57:
56:
50:
46:
45:
42:
39:
38:
34:
33:
30:
19:
1788:
1774:
1758:
1745:
1733:. Retrieved
1716:
1673:
1669:
1632:
1628:
1588:
1584:
1578:
1566:
1553:
1541:. Retrieved
1537:the original
1523:
1510:
1490:
1455:
1449:
1439:
1423:
1407:
1396:
1385:
1369:
1355:
1346:
1342:
1336:
1331:nhc.noaa.gov
1324:
1308:
1292:U. S. Navy.
1288:
1280:
1257:
1247:
1235:. Retrieved
1225:
1213:. Retrieved
1199:
1180:
1139:
1133:
1066:
1047:
1033:
1029:
1025:
1021:
1017:
1013:
1011:
968:
870:
643:
575:
550:
540:
527:
511:
470:
466:
462:
460:
428:
420:
381:
353:William Gray
350:
341:
301:
282:
281:
158:
111:Preparedness
29:
1496:Hurricanes.
1258:Storm World
1008:Storm surge
1002:Storm surge
477:for severe
471:danger area
449:Hurricanes
324:radiosondes
159:Forecasting
154:Observation
106:Storm surge
71:Development
1795:Categories
1676:(2): 409.
1265:. p.
1177:Bob Sheets
1112:References
1106:Hebert Box
1078:wind shear
1057:See also:
1032:urge from
1006:See also:
905:Madagascar
899:, much of
865:See also:
571:wind shear
545:created a
506:See also:
463:1-2-3 rule
434:1-2-3 rule
403:See also:
375:along the
298:Short term
216:Australian
212:Philippine
18:1-2-3 rule
1686:CiteSeerX
1482:1520-0442
1028:verland,
875:. While
615:−
598:⋅
502:Intensity
483:hurricane
373:landfalls
347:Long term
316:telegraph
96:By Region
60:Structure
1708:14845745
1499:Archived
1414:(2006).
1297:Archived
1263:Harcourt
1237:16 April
1215:17 April
1084:See also
990:and the
978:for the
877:flooding
853:Rainfall
475:mariners
455:Philippe
387:(ENSO),
200:Atlantic
116:Response
1678:Bibcode
1637:Bibcode
1593:Bibcode
1543:24 June
1460:Bibcode
1349:(4): 4.
1144:Bibcode
1044:Tornado
953:Florida
909:Réunion
491:NHC/TPC
361:El Niño
359:during
293:History
231:Outline
189:History
89:Effects
1706:
1688:
1494:FEMA.
1480:
1273:
1187:
915:, and
895:, the
889:Mexico
837:0.1813
823:, and
644:Where
312:Havana
149:Scales
134:Basins
1735:3 May
1704:S2CID
1209:(PDF)
1024:ake,
1014:SLOSH
917:Japan
913:China
893:Haiti
479:storm
399:Track
366:Sahel
320:radio
144:RSMCs
1737:2013
1545:2006
1478:ISSN
1271:ISBN
1239:2016
1217:2016
1185:ISBN
1061:and
1020:ea,
963:and
883:and
811:55.8
785:28.2
751:and
541:Dr.
521:and
485:and
461:The
453:and
451:Rita
421:The
407:and
1696:doi
1645:doi
1601:doi
1468:doi
1152:doi
996:DOS
945:NHC
927:in
567:UTC
469:or
76:Eye
1797::
1728:.
1702:.
1694:.
1684:.
1674:24
1672:.
1659:^
1643:.
1633:81
1631:.
1627:.
1613:^
1599:.
1587:.
1531:.
1476:.
1466:.
1454:.
1448:.
1376:.
1347:38
1345:.
1279:.
1269:.
1267:70
1261:.
1166:^
1150:.
1138:.
1132:.
1120:^
911:,
907:,
903:,
891:,
797:,
731:,
525:.
218:,
214:,
210:,
206:,
202:,
1739:.
1710:.
1698::
1680::
1653:.
1647::
1639::
1607:.
1603::
1595::
1589:5
1547:.
1484:.
1470::
1462::
1456:7
1363:.
1241:.
1219:.
1193:.
1160:.
1154::
1146::
1140:5
1034:H
1030:S
1026:O
1022:L
1018:S
955:.
834:=
831:C
808:=
805:B
782:=
779:A
759:C
739:B
719:A
697:0
693:T
672:T
652:V
628:)
623:0
619:T
612:T
609:(
606:C
602:e
595:B
592:+
589:A
586:=
583:V
465:(
442:.
271:e
264:t
257:v
20:)
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.
-_Good_pic.jpg)