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Bellwether

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4197:. By 2016, Ohio and, with almost double its electors, Florida, were seen by political pundits and national campaigns as the most important swing states due to their large number of electoral votes and politically mixed breakdown. No Republican has won the presidency while losing Ohio, so the party campaigns there intensively. The period from 1964 to 2016 ties Ohio with Pennsylvania, from 1828 to 1880, as the longest consecutive bellwether streak in US history. In the 258: 204: 80: 3165:
elections have matched those of the party who run (usually with the GLA, or more lately Mayor of London and Assembly) the most London authorities except went its "miss" to Labour's majority of London councils in 2010 (which has endured since) and the reverse miss in 1978 and 1982. In the latter two
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Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972. In 2005 SPD and CDU/CSU were only separated by one percentage point and
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By 2022, the status of bellwethers in Sweden often moved to post-industrial towns for differences between the various municipalities, but also some commuter towns being candidates. This status shifted rapidly due to the big cities moving to the left and smaller towns to the right. Among sizeable
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respectively), nor large rural Catholic populations, the traditional base of the SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. Schleswig-Holstein is also famous for having had several state elections result in a one-seat majority for the winning coalition and Lower Saxony's 1998 election (in which
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is a U.S. example of a bellwether. As one of the major banks in the United States, its stock sets the tone for the rest of the banking industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries, so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market.
2746:, apart from a few island seats. It is possible to dispute any long-term bellwether, citing such changes. However, those below have kept the bulk of their electors in the main, named constituency identified with the place they are named after. 3525:
Another way to measure how much a state's results reflect the national average is how far the state deviates from the national results. The states with the least deviation from a two-party presidential vote from 1896 to 2012 include:
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in South Australia was a bellwether division from 1984 to 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote,
2727:. These municipalites were won by the right coalition with narrow margins. In addition, several smaller municipalities came close to the national coalition differential, although no locations closely mirrored exact party results. 4732: 261:
Map highlighting in red five bellwethers who since 1965 every election have swung to the President in the second (final) round of the Présidentielles. All these are within Metropolitan France, on the mainland of Europe.
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hosts these provinces. Aragon is, moreover, the sole Autonomous Community to have done so. It has more than a million residents and combines much rural land with mountains and socially diverse urban communities.
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in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984 until 2016. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status at the
132:, a 'bellwether' is a company or stock taken to be a leading indicator of the direction in a sector, in an industry or in the market as a whole. Bellwether stocks therefore serve as short-term guides. 3153:(Labour since 1964) was often used in election programming to predict the swing of a general election - principally because it was often the first to declare - though with variable accuracy. 2707:
showing voting intentions in the area. Karlstad swung to the left in the 2010s and by 2022 was seven points to the left of Sweden. Therefore, Karlstad is no longer a proper bellwether town.
2124:. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the 4729: 3242: 3214: 3116: 503:
Below are seats that have been classified as bellwether seats won by the party forming government at least once at one of the past 10 elections. Below the winning party is the
2066: 218: 2969: 495:. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia. 3230: 3218: 2829: 2825: 3278: 3250: 1906: 3844:
shifted to become overwhelmingly Democratic, the state lost its bellwether status. No Republican had ever won the White House without taking Illinois prior to 2000.
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has previously been a bellwether since 1959, with three exceptions: in 1979 and 2017, when the seat leaned to the left but the Tories formed a government; and in
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that accurately reflects how a geographic region (state, province, etc.) will vote during elections. Bellwethers in the United States typically change every
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was still returned as the largest party in Parliament, however, the two electorates did in fact retain their bellwether status, albeit to a limited extent.
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was not included in this bellwether run, Virginia was actually the closest state to the national vote in 2012. Donald Trump, however, managed to win in
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were the closest to the national results for three consecutive elections around the turn of the 21st century, a fact often highlighted by media through
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is also seen as a bellwether, with the national government having been formed the majority of times by the party that won the most seats in the state.
5040: 3296:; their streaks date back to 2008. The American bellwether states can also be determined in different ways (with respect to presidential elections): 2833: 2807: 2105: 4934: 3246: 3198: 3138: 5064: 4634: 3254: 3034: 2965: 2885: 1862: 4852: 4538: 5153: 4186: 3238: 2781: 102:(the castrated male sheep). A shepherd could then note the movements of the animals by hearing the bell, even when the flock was not in sight. 4216:, meaning the number of swing states has increased and a winning Democratic campaign could, potentially, focus much less on Ohio and Florida. 2187:'s North Shore. Hamilton West and Northcote missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively — the 3234: 3162: 3150: 3110: 2943: 2931: 2793: 2785: 2065:
borders both Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein, but Scholz did not run in Hamburg during that election, instead representing the District
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the SPD placed first in 12 out of 16 states, including Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony as well as federally while being led by former
3183: 1937: 1898: 222: 2953: 2935: 2915: 2939: 2907: 2777: 2045:(also located in Schleswig-Holstein) has voted for the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor in all elections except for 1949. 176: 4213: 4209: 4198: 4178: 4174: 4162: 4158: 4154: 4150: 4146: 4136: 4132: 4128: 4118: 4114: 4110: 4100: 4096: 4092: 4075: 4071: 4067: 4063: 4059: 4049: 4045: 4041: 4037: 4033: 4023: 4019: 4015: 4011: 4007: 3997: 3993: 3989: 3985: 3981: 3971: 3967: 3963: 3959: 3955: 3945: 3941: 3937: 3933: 3929: 3919: 3915: 3911: 3907: 3903: 3893: 3889: 3885: 3881: 3877: 3867: 3863: 3859: 3855: 3851: 3837: 3833: 3829: 3825: 3821: 3814: 3810: 3806: 3802: 3798: 3794: 3784: 3780: 3776: 3772: 3762: 3758: 3754: 3750: 3740: 3736: 3732: 3728: 3718: 3714: 3710: 3700: 3696: 3692: 3682: 3678: 3674: 3664: 3660: 3656: 3646: 3642: 3638: 3634: 3617: 3613: 3603: 3599: 3589: 3585: 3575: 3563: 3559: 3513: 3509: 3499: 3495: 3485: 3481: 3471: 3467: 3457: 3453: 3443: 3433: 3387: 3383: 3379: 3375: 3365: 3361: 3357: 3353: 3343: 3339: 3335: 3331: 3321: 3317: 3313: 3309: 2877: 2021:, 1969 and 2005). Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities (the biggest being 4317: 4313: 3120: 3076: 2865: 2857: 1975:, has voted for the candidate from the governing party in every general election since it was first contested except for that of 1894: 483:, which has the largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a "bellwether", as, until the 5148: 3006: 3002: 2893: 2869: 2841: 2773: 2739: 2172: 2168: 3090: 2981: 2977: 2973: 2961: 2911: 2889: 2849: 2755: 2275: 2271: 2260: 2240: 2236: 2232: 352:
All-Or-Nothing Bellwether — states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Examples include the counties of
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Barometric Bellwether — a place that accurately reflects the national share of votes. Vigo County, Indiana, is one example.
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became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the
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on local election day. From 1996 through 2012, Ohio was within 1.85% of the national popular vote result. Due to the
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was the SPD candidate) is often seen as a "trial run" for the subsequent federal election (which Schröder also won).
2018: 2006: 244: 2141: 2137: 2224: 685: 680: 675: 670: 665: 660: 655: 650: 645: 640: 574: 569: 564: 559: 554: 549: 544: 539: 534: 529: 492: 484: 476: 448: 431: 427: 416: 146: 4345: 2086: 226: 1909:(called Peterborough until 2015) has consistently elected the party which has won the provincial election since 2650: 2642: 2638: 2628: 2620: 2616: 2606: 2602: 2598: 2594: 2584: 2580: 2576: 2572: 2562: 2558: 2554: 2550: 2540: 2536: 2532: 2528: 2518: 2510: 2500: 2492: 2482: 2478: 2474: 2464: 2460: 2456: 2446: 2442: 2438: 2428: 2424: 2420: 2410: 2406: 2402: 2392: 2388: 2384: 2374: 2370: 2366: 2356: 2342: 2042: 1976: 1972: 1964: 1960: 1956: 1952: 1926: 1922: 1918: 1902: 1890: 1874: 1870: 1866: 2524: 278:
often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in
4699: 4671: 2735: 2689: 1910: 3809:. Was traditionally Republican at the time. Otherwise, the state was traditionally Democratic. Although the 2692:
this had further extended. In that election Ljungby was 17 points more to the right than Sweden in general.
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system, bellwethers of sufficient size form the focus of political attention and presidential campaigns as
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The American states with the current longest streak of voting for the winners in the electoral college are
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has voted for the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. (Note that following the
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without winning either Ohio or Florida. He won Arizona, which no other Democratic candidate had won since
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Since democracy was restored in 1977, up to 2019 two provinces have always voted for the winning party (
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have all elected MSPs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every
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has been a bellwether since 1983, with one exception in the 1992 General Election, electing Labour MP
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then had the longest active streak, having its provincial winners be the elected president since the
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and his student Richard Sun defined electoral bellwethers (in the US) into the following categories:
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elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from
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votes, Sweden votes') was coined in the early-1970s, but more recently (in 2006) voting results in
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may contain an excessive amount of intricate detail that may interest only a particular audience
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has consistently become the national winner. It has more than one and half million residents.
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for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993,
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has only elected three opposition MPs since it contested its first election, as St. Paul's, in
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of more than a million residents, is where the preference has matched the elected president.
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currently share the longest active streak, having elected an MP from the winning party since
1809: 1799: 1720: 591: 581: 468: 439: 408: 391: 334: 142: 2720: 2302:, a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.) 4337: 3571: 2310: 850: 353: 8: 4830: 4804: 4757: 4417: 4324:
is the only one of the 17 first-tier divisions in which the most voted candidate for the
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States that were considered bellwether states from the mid-to-late 20th century include:
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on. The highest rate (88%, 7/8). The longest continuous streak (6 in a row: 1990–2009).
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on. The highest rate (88%, 7/8). The longest continuous streak (6 in a row: 1990–2009).
2002: 1789: 1661: 1548: 978: 310: 287: 263: 122: 54: 4470: 2711:
municipalities that came within half a point of the national average in 2022 included
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due to shifts in the electorate. Bellwethers also differ by the type of elections: a
64: 179:(IPA), monitors trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry. 5116:"Election Resources on the Internet: Elections to the Spanish Congress of Deputies" 4412: 4387: 4238: 4142: 3100: 2985: 2897: 2811: 2759: 2743: 2546: 2485:
on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
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on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
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on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
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on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
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on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
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on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
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on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
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voted for the party or coalition that won the highest percentage in the elections.
2252: 1602: 1553: 919: 855: 692: 330: 188: 3145:, when the Conservative candidate held the seat amidst a Labour landslide victory. 2416: 4736: 4366: 4268:), it is considered as a microcosm of Brazil's society and economics as a whole. 2228: 1917:(also called Peterborough until 2015) elected a member of the winning party from 1725: 1607: 1499: 1302: 1052: 983: 480: 412: 157: 68: 5115: 4212:, and Georgia (of similar population size to Ohio), which no Democrat had since 2568: 2470: 2148: 1963:
inclusive, voted against the national winner only three times, most recently in
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Political scientists have long regarded 1896 as a seminal, realigning election.
4297: 4250: 3574:), voters tend to lean strongly Democratic. That county had been a bellwether: 3066: 2612: 2488: 2306: 2295: 1948: 1940:
has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905.
326: 133: 88: 5038: 4397: 2145: 5132: 5069: 4826: 4392: 4003: 3491: 2256: 338: 161: 5003:"Ballots Cast by Blacks and Older Voters Were Tossed in Far Greater Numbers" 4961: 2001:) matched the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor the most times is 225:
any relevant information, and removing excessive detail that may be against
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This article is about the concept of a trend indicator. For other uses, see
4234: 4205: 4088: 3595: 3566:. As a result of a massive Democrat-strong growth in housing/population in 3505: 3289: 2506: 2452: 2398: 2167:
In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates:
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has voted for the winning party in each election since it was re-formed in
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in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a
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reflected every result from its creation in 1974 to its abolition in 2010.
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more closely resembled the result of the whole nation in elections to the
4912:"How Delaware Lost its Bellwether Mojo and Joined the Northeast Corridor" 4407: 4194: 2704: 2434: 2380: 2362: 2058: 383: 165: 49:
in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In
2688:. While since long having shifted right versus the national results, by 5039:
Gabriel Maia; Gabriel Zanlorenssi; Rodolfo Almeida (28 February 2018).
4591:"Germany's electoral oracle struggles to divine the post-Merkel future" 3847: 3768: 3449: 3349: 2267: 2093:, have successfully voted for the victorious party for the last eleven 1992: 1885:
won government, and the riding has become reliably Conservative since.
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is similarly a bellwether for technology stocks in the Indian markets,
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Electoral record of the states for presidential elections, 1896–2020:
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The counties that voted in the first round for the winning candidate:
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have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the
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to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence, or set
60: 50: 4257:) and has been birthplace of the record of nine presidents to date. 1979:; it also elected opposition MLAs at by-elections in 1979 and 1993. 5022:"Category:Brazilian presidential election maps - Wikimedia Commons" 4233:'s direct presidential elections the winner has taken the state of 4029: 3977: 3951: 3790: 3706: 3545: 3539: 3477: 3409: 3285: 2700: 2681: 2673: 2184: 2151:
in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of
2026: 1968: 1944: 1440: 776: 697: 322: 283: 271: 46: 38: 1913:. In federal politics, the coterminous federal electoral district 105:
The word was first used in the above meaning in the 15th century.
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presidential election, the central, thus somewhat mountainous,
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as it produced the same outcome as the national results in the
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has always gone on to form the national government since 1998.
498: 31: 294:, the control of which tends frequently to change, can have a 5065:
Brazil’s election is tight ahead of a run-off on October 30th
5041:"Os presidentes do Brasil: mandato, formação, cidade e idade" 4827:"Valresultat 2022 - för riksdagsvalet, region- och kommunval" 3724: 3688: 2309:, mayoral (except 2009), or presidential elections since the 164:
are believed to show the future direction of the rest of the
4853:"Parliamentary bellwether Nuneaton votes strongly for Leave" 2097:. Furthermore, the party that wins the majority of seats in 1987:
Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (then
79: 4935:"Missouri slips from political bellwether status this fall" 4635:"With just 7 Lok Sabha seats, Delhi decides who becomes PM" 4055: 3873: 3429: 3305: 2022: 1893:, although it has become reliably Liberal in recent years. 314: 4260:
Because of its varied topography, large area (larger than
2251:). After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016, 2120:
electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the
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Swingometric Bellwether — a county that mirrors important
4249:. The state has more than 21 million residents, includes 3279:
List of election bellwether counties in the United States
4653:"Will Uttar Pradesh be 'bellwether' or exception again?" 4165:. Had the most electoral votes during the entire period. 3570:(suburban Philadelphia, with the old industrial city of 1793: 1179: 487:
the party which wins government has won the majority of
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since its creation in December 1973 (first election in
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or shifts in the national electorate. Examples include
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all see a change at least every few decades to avoid
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From the first competitive multi-party elections in
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Since the substantial role began in 1958, under the
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Since Greater London formed during 1964–1965,
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formed the government after the election. Since the
4855:. Reuters (editorial). 24 June 2016. Archived from 4284:in the final (second) round always won: diminutive 2270:has voted for the winner in all elections save for 2067:
Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming II
4985:"Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections" 4949: 4932: 4691: 4663: 3221:each elected an MSP from the largest party in the 2069:in Brandenburg (where he incidentally ran against 282:those of a wider area, such that the result of an 45:those of a wider area, such that the result of an 4697: 3166:results no overall control was the local result. 2946:constituencies have reflected every result since 5130: 3406:New Mexico – 25 wins out of 28 elections (89.3%) 4801:"Valresultat 2022 för Karlstad i riksdagsvalet" 4724: 4722: 3229:elections. This continues the trend that their 2896:have all reflected the overall result in every 83:A bellwether sheep, with a bell around its neck 4955: 4754:"Valresultat 2022 för Ljungby i riksdagsvalet" 3300:Highest percentage for varying lengths of time 2159:TDs when those parties formed the government. 344:American statistician and political scientist 121:, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an 94:, which referred to the practice of placing a 53:, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an 4897:The Bellwether – Why Ohio Picks The President 4879:The Bellwether – Why Ohio Picks The President 4659:. May 20, 2019 – via Business Standard. 3163:Hammersmith and Fulham London Borough Council 2663: 1967:. Also in Manitoba, the provincial riding of 298:that mirrors the result on a national scale. 4894: 4876: 4719: 4669: 3521:Smallest deviation from the national average 3415:Nevada – 27 wins out of 32 elections (84.4%) 499:List of electorates described as bellwethers 491:seats in that state at every election since 479:. In purely statistical terms, the state of 4539:"The Bellwether Model - Suffolk University" 4288:and with about double its population each, 4157:). It previously had a perfect streak from 3840:, the most reliable in this period. As the 3395:Highest percentage for a set length of time 3156: 2984:have reflected the overall result in every 3633:96.2% of the time for the century between 3403:Ohio – 29 wins out of 32 elections (90.6%) 2810:has reflected the overall result in every 2758:has reflected the overall result at every 4255:third-largest metropolitan area in Brazil 3113:reflected every result from 1966 to 2010. 245:Learn how and when to remove this message 177:Institute of Practitioners in Advertising 3127:) had reflected the overall result from 256: 78: 3277:For a list of bellwether counties, see 1991:) in 1949, the state where the leading 5131: 4910:Sullivan, Robert David (8 June 2015). 4698:Shepheard, Nicola (7 September 2008). 4633:Prabhash K. Dutta New (May 11, 2019). 4564: 3623:Missouri was often referred to as the 3390:on (87.5%, slightly "too Republican"). 3368:on (89.3%, slightly "too Democratic"). 3346:on (90.0%, slightly "too Democratic"). 3324:on (90.6%, slightly "too Republican"). 3169: 3099:reflected the overall result in every 3079:has reflected the overall result from 3051:had reflected the overall result from 2792:have reflected every result since the 2750:Long-running bellwether constituencies 2223:In the Philippines, the winner of the 2199:, and 2005. They were all held by the 2049:four seats in the final tally. In the 16:Person or group which indicates trends 5154:Metaphors referring to sheep or goats 4881:. Ohio University Press. p. 22. 3412:– 27 wins out of 32 elections (84.4%) 4958:"Illinois as a bellwether: So what?" 4899:. Ohio University Press. p. 23. 4560: 4558: 4492: 4490: 4465: 4463: 4461: 4443: 4441: 4439: 3009:) reflected the overall result from 1936:, the provincial electoral district 197: 4933:Shesgreen, Deirdre (24 June 2012). 4730:Som Karlstad röstar, röstar Sverige 4672:"Eyes on tussle in bellwether seat" 3023:has reflected the result since the 2294:in 1975, the electoral district of 434:, when the record was broken after 13: 3013:with the only exception being the 2037:Of the first vote constituencies ( 14: 5165: 4567:"What Is An Election Bellwether?" 4555: 4487: 4458: 4436: 4383:As Maine goes, so goes the nation 3149:While not strictly a bellwether, 3037:reflected every result since the 2730: 2665:Som Ljungby röstar röstar Sverige 2286:In every general election to the 2266:For vice presidential elections, 4982: 4956:Everson, David (February 1990). 4670:Ihaka, James (13 October 2008). 3272: 3243:Edinburgh East & Musselburgh 3083:, with the only exception being 2997:Former bellwether constituencies 2225:Philippine presidential election 2175:, both based around the city of 290:-style election, for example, a 202: 5108: 5094: 5076: 5058: 5032: 5014: 4995: 4976: 4926: 4903: 4888: 4870: 4845: 4819: 4793: 4772: 4746: 4645: 2970:North Warwickshire and Bedworth 108: 4626: 4608: 4583: 4531: 4514: 4307: 3027:with the only exception being 2218: 2162: 193: 1: 5149:Political science terminology 4565:Berkes, Howard (2008-10-24). 4430: 3069:whilst the country elected a 2830:Blackpool North and Cleveleys 2826:Blackpool North and Fleetwood 2736:United Kingdom constituencies 2144:, have elected a majority of 4083:Historic bellwether states: 3215:Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley 3197:Also, the constituencies of 3192:Scottish Parliament election 3139:Keighley/Keighley and Ilkley 3107:until its abolition in 2024. 2313:, the Portuguese capital of 2288:Portuguese National Assembly 2073:candidate for chancellor of 2051:2021 German federal election 2013:), followed by the state of 1881:held the district while the 1873:. This streak was broken in 398: 227:Knowledge's inclusion policy 98:around the neck of the lead 74: 7: 4700:"Street shows swing voters" 4376: 3568:New Castle County, Delaware 2834:Burton/Burton and Uttoxeter 2281: 2118:proportional representation 34:or an indicator of trends. 21:Bellwether (disambiguation) 10: 5170: 4498:"Definition of BELLWETHER" 4280:, the president has since 4241:of every election between 3647:2008 presidential election 3420:Highest percentage of the 3276: 3231:predecessor constituencies 2854:Finchley and Golders Green 2320: 2191:for Hamilton West and the 2111: 2095:general elections in India 1982: 1971:, which has existed since 1947:, the federal district of 634: 523: 518: 422:Previously, the electoral 333:bellwether differs from a 186: 87:The term derives from the 18: 4403:Peer-mediated instruction 4356: 4271: 4224: 4219: 3842:Chicago metropolitan area 2846:Sittingbourne and Sheppey 2657: 1848: 1813: 1808: 1798: 1788: 1783: 1739: 1734: 1729: 1724: 1719: 1680: 1675: 1670: 1665: 1660: 1621: 1616: 1611: 1606: 1601: 1562: 1557: 1552: 1547: 1508: 1503: 1498: 1493: 1454: 1444: 1439: 1434: 1395: 1385: 1375: 1370: 1365: 1326: 1311: 1306: 1301: 1296: 1257: 1247: 1242: 1237: 1199: 1174: 1169: 1130: 1120: 1115: 1110: 1071: 1061: 1056: 1051: 1046: 1007: 997: 992: 987: 982: 977: 938: 933: 928: 923: 918: 913: 869: 864: 854: 849: 810: 795: 785: 775: 770: 731: 716: 706: 696: 691: 590: 585: 580: 515: 512: 182: 139:Tata Consultancy Services 4782:. Fof.se. September 2006 4741:Statistiska Centralbyrån 4331: 3558:Delaware – Perfect from 3251:Kilmarnock & Loudoun 3157:London Borough elections 2292:restoration of democracy 2122:single transferable vote 2080: 505:two-party-preferred vote 489:House of Representatives 438:won the seat, while the 4657:Business Standard India 4528:. Retrieved 2022-01-22. 4502:www.merriam-webster.com 4455:. Retrieved 2022-01-22. 4424:Will it play in Peoria? 4187:presidential straw vote 3219:Mid Fife and Glenrothes 3049:Brentford and Isleworth 2231:in all instances since 2041:), the constituency of 424:division of Eden-Monaro 407:federal elections, the 5088:www.politiquemania.com 4705:The New Zealand Herald 4677:The New Zealand Herald 4185:votes, but conducts a 3119:(and its predecessors 2862:Gillingham and Rainham 2794:February 1974 election 2770:Hertford and Stevenage 2699:, election results in 2664: 2326:Presidential elections 2085:Two individual seats, 2075:Alliance 90/The Greens 2055:First Mayor of Hamburg 267: 84: 63:apply the term in the 5120:electionresources.org 5026:commons.wikimedia.org 4895:Kondik, Kyle (2016). 4877:Kondik, Kyle (2016). 4278:French Fifth Republic 3820:Illinois – 3 misses ( 3631:presidential election 3063:Rossendale and Darwen 3039:October 1974 election 3025:October 1974 election 3005:(and its predecessor 2958:Chatham and Aylesford 2800:Rochester and Chatham 2130:2011 general election 2126:1981 general election 1915:Peterborough—Kawartha 1907:Peterborough—Kawartha 485:2016 federal election 477:1998 federal election 449:2016 federal election 417:1983 federal election 409:Division of Robertson 260: 82: 5073:, October 27th, 2022 5011:(November 12, 2001). 4526:Cambridge Dictionary 4453:Cambridge Dictionary 4346:Autonomous Community 3422:current party system 3188:Na h-Eileanan an Iar 2808:Rochester and Strood 2311:Carnation Revolution 2136:and its successors, 442:won government. The 362:Van Buren County, AR 303:electoral bellwether 4989:uselectionatlas.org 4833:. 11 September 2022 4807:. 11 September 2022 4760:. 11 September 2022 4418:Tipping-point state 4262:Metropolitan France 4204:defeated incumbent 4181:(100.0%); it lacks 4173:had no misses from 3626:Missouri bellwether 3170:Scottish Parliament 1905:. Also in Ontario, 524:Government elected 444:Division of Lindsay 388:Sandoval County, NM 175:, published by the 5008:The New York Times 4914:. America Magazine 4735:2017-03-26 at the 3641:, only missing in 3257:) achieved in the 3035:Bristol North West 2966:North Warwickshire 2886:Stafford and Stone 2305:In every general, 2005:(with two misses: 2003:Schleswig-Holstein 1887:Toronto—St. Paul's 1879:Conservative Party 358:Lincoln County, MT 268: 85: 5144:Economic concepts 5001:Fessenden, Ford. 4322:North Chungcheong 4294:Charente-Maritime 4191:Electoral College 4183:electoral college 4171:Territory of Guam 3817:without Virginia. 3815:the next election 3533:New Mexico – 2.8% 3211:Glasgow Southside 3207:Edinburgh Eastern 3180:Cunninghame North 3017:general election. 2782:Northampton North 2697:Statistics Sweden 2300:elections of 2015 2205:the 2017 election 2071:Annalena Baerbock 1855:Canadian province 1846: 1845: 592:Lib/Nat Coalition 582:Lib/Nat Coalition 456:Division of Makin 392:Washoe County, NV 255: 254: 247: 173:Bellwether Report 160:whose changes in 5161: 5124: 5123: 5112: 5106: 5105: 5098: 5092: 5091: 5080: 5074: 5062: 5056: 5055: 5053: 5051: 5036: 5030: 5029: 5018: 5012: 4999: 4993: 4992: 4980: 4974: 4973: 4971: 4969: 4960:. Archived from 4953: 4947: 4946: 4944: 4942: 4930: 4924: 4923: 4921: 4919: 4907: 4901: 4900: 4892: 4886: 4885: 4874: 4868: 4867: 4865: 4864: 4859:on June 25, 2016 4849: 4843: 4842: 4840: 4838: 4823: 4817: 4816: 4814: 4812: 4797: 4791: 4790: 4788: 4787: 4776: 4770: 4769: 4767: 4765: 4750: 4744: 4726: 4717: 4716: 4714: 4712: 4695: 4689: 4688: 4686: 4684: 4667: 4661: 4660: 4649: 4643: 4642: 4630: 4624: 4623: 4612: 4606: 4605: 4603: 4602: 4587: 4581: 4580: 4578: 4577: 4562: 4553: 4552: 4550: 4549: 4535: 4529: 4518: 4512: 4511: 4509: 4508: 4494: 4485: 4484: 4482: 4481: 4467: 4456: 4445: 4413:Sentinel species 4388:Bellwether trial 4371:region of Taiwan 4145:– One miss from 4127:– One miss from 4109:– One miss from 4091:– One miss from 3203:Dundee City West 3151:Sunderland South 3111:Southampton Test 3101:general election 2986:general election 2944:South Derbyshire 2932:Hastings and Rye 2898:general election 2812:general election 2786:Portsmouth North 2760:general election 2744:malapportionment 2740:House of Commons 2667: 2662:The expression " 2253:Agusan del Norte 2032:Gerhard Schröder 2017:(with misses in 1682:Liberal National 1397:Liberal National 1387:Liberal National 1259:Liberal National 1132:Liberal National 516:State/territory 510: 509: 374:Ferry County, WA 366:Logan County, AR 337:bellwether or a 250: 243: 239: 236: 230: 206: 205: 198: 189:Bellwether trial 113:In the world of 5169: 5168: 5164: 5163: 5162: 5160: 5159: 5158: 5139:Social concepts 5129: 5128: 5127: 5114: 5113: 5109: 5100: 5099: 5095: 5082: 5081: 5077: 5063: 5059: 5049: 5047: 5037: 5033: 5020: 5019: 5015: 5000: 4996: 4981: 4977: 4967: 4965: 4964:on 4 March 2016 4954: 4950: 4940: 4938: 4931: 4927: 4917: 4915: 4908: 4904: 4893: 4889: 4875: 4871: 4862: 4860: 4851: 4850: 4846: 4836: 4834: 4825: 4824: 4820: 4810: 4808: 4799: 4798: 4794: 4785: 4783: 4778: 4777: 4773: 4763: 4761: 4752: 4751: 4747: 4743:, 6 March 2006. 4737:Wayback Machine 4727: 4720: 4710: 4708: 4696: 4692: 4682: 4680: 4668: 4664: 4651: 4650: 4646: 4631: 4627: 4614: 4613: 4609: 4600: 4598: 4595:Financial Times 4589: 4588: 4584: 4575: 4573: 4563: 4556: 4547: 4545: 4543:www.suffolk.edu 4537: 4536: 4532: 4522:bellwether bond 4519: 4515: 4506: 4504: 4496: 4495: 4488: 4479: 4477: 4469: 4468: 4459: 4446: 4437: 4433: 4379: 4369:, a west coast 4367:Changhua County 4359: 4334: 4310: 4274: 4227: 4222: 3612:– Perfect from 3598:– Perfect from 3584:– Perfect from 3536:Illinois – 3.6% 3282: 3275: 3172: 3159: 2822:Blackpool North 2733: 2660: 2525:Bistrița-Năsăud 2323: 2284: 2229:Negros Oriental 2221: 2165: 2114: 2083: 2061:, the State of 1985: 1925:and 1984 until 1851: 1810:Country Liberal 1800:Country Liberal 501: 481:New South Wales 413:New South Wales 401: 370:Eddy County, NM 354:Vigo County, IN 251: 240: 234: 231: 217:Please help by 216: 207: 203: 196: 191: 185: 158:government bond 154:bellwether bond 111: 77: 24: 17: 12: 11: 5: 5167: 5157: 5156: 5151: 5146: 5141: 5126: 5125: 5107: 5093: 5075: 5057: 5031: 5013: 4994: 4975: 4948: 4925: 4902: 4887: 4869: 4844: 4829:(in Swedish). 4818: 4803:(in Swedish). 4792: 4771: 4756:(in Swedish). 4745: 4718: 4690: 4662: 4644: 4625: 4607: 4582: 4554: 4530: 4513: 4486: 4457: 4434: 4432: 4429: 4428: 4427: 4420: 4415: 4410: 4405: 4400: 4395: 4390: 4385: 4378: 4375: 4358: 4355: 4333: 4330: 4309: 4306: 4298:Indre-et-Loire 4273: 4270: 4251:Belo Horizonte 4226: 4223: 4221: 4218: 4167: 4166: 4140: 4122: 4104: 4080: 4079: 4053: 4027: 4001: 3975: 3949: 3923: 3897: 3871: 3845: 3818: 3788: 3766: 3744: 3722: 3709:– 1 miss from 3704: 3691:– 1 miss from 3686: 3673:– 1 miss from 3668: 3655:– 1 miss from 3650: 3621: 3607: 3593: 3579: 3550: 3549: 3543: 3537: 3534: 3531: 3518: 3517: 3503: 3489: 3475: 3461: 3447: 3437: 3417: 3416: 3413: 3407: 3404: 3392: 3391: 3369: 3347: 3325: 3274: 3271: 3176:constituencies 3171: 3168: 3158: 3155: 3147: 3146: 3136: 3114: 3108: 3094: 3088: 3074: 3067:Janet Anderson 3060: 3046: 3032: 3018: 2994: 2993: 2951: 2905: 2819: 2797: 2767: 2732: 2731:United Kingdom 2729: 2659: 2656: 2655: 2654: 2653:on (63%, 5/8). 2632: 2631:on (63%, 5/8). 2610: 2609:on (63%, 5/8). 2588: 2587:on (63%, 5/8). 2566: 2565:on (63%, 5/8). 2544: 2543:on (63%, 5/8). 2522: 2521:on (75%, 6/8). 2504: 2503:on (75%, 6/8). 2486: 2468: 2450: 2432: 2414: 2396: 2378: 2360: 2346: 2322: 2319: 2307:European Union 2283: 2280: 2220: 2217: 2213:National Party 2201:National Party 2164: 2161: 2116:Ireland has a 2113: 2110: 2082: 2079: 1984: 1981: 1949:Winnipeg South 1899:St. Catharines 1863:Sarnia—Lambton 1850: 1847: 1844: 1843: 1840: 1837: 1834: 1831: 1828: 1825: 1822: 1818: 1817: 1812: 1807: 1802: 1797: 1792: 1787: 1781: 1780: 1777: 1774: 1771: 1768: 1765: 1762: 1759: 1756: 1753: 1749: 1748: 1743: 1738: 1733: 1728: 1723: 1717: 1716: 1713: 1710: 1707: 1704: 1701: 1698: 1695: 1692: 1689: 1685: 1684: 1679: 1674: 1669: 1664: 1658: 1657: 1654: 1651: 1648: 1645: 1642: 1639: 1636: 1633: 1630: 1626: 1625: 1620: 1615: 1610: 1605: 1599: 1598: 1595: 1592: 1589: 1586: 1583: 1580: 1577: 1574: 1571: 1567: 1566: 1561: 1556: 1551: 1545: 1544: 1541: 1538: 1535: 1532: 1529: 1526: 1523: 1520: 1517: 1513: 1512: 1507: 1502: 1497: 1491: 1490: 1487: 1484: 1481: 1478: 1475: 1472: 1469: 1466: 1463: 1459: 1458: 1453: 1448: 1443: 1438: 1432: 1431: 1428: 1425: 1422: 1419: 1416: 1413: 1410: 1407: 1404: 1400: 1399: 1394: 1389: 1384: 1379: 1374: 1369: 1363: 1362: 1359: 1356: 1353: 1350: 1347: 1344: 1341: 1338: 1335: 1331: 1330: 1325: 1320: 1315: 1310: 1305: 1300: 1294: 1293: 1290: 1287: 1284: 1281: 1278: 1275: 1272: 1269: 1266: 1262: 1261: 1256: 1251: 1246: 1241: 1235: 1234: 1231: 1228: 1225: 1222: 1219: 1216: 1213: 1209: 1208: 1203: 1198: 1193: 1188: 1183: 1178: 1173: 1167: 1166: 1163: 1160: 1157: 1154: 1151: 1148: 1145: 1142: 1139: 1135: 1134: 1129: 1124: 1119: 1114: 1108: 1107: 1104: 1101: 1098: 1095: 1092: 1089: 1086: 1083: 1080: 1076: 1075: 1070: 1065: 1060: 1055: 1050: 1044: 1043: 1040: 1037: 1034: 1031: 1028: 1025: 1022: 1019: 1016: 1012: 1011: 1006: 1001: 996: 991: 986: 981: 975: 974: 971: 968: 965: 962: 959: 956: 953: 950: 947: 943: 942: 937: 932: 927: 922: 917: 911: 910: 907: 904: 901: 898: 895: 892: 889: 886: 883: 879: 878: 873: 868: 863: 858: 853: 847: 846: 843: 840: 837: 834: 831: 828: 825: 822: 819: 815: 814: 809: 804: 799: 794: 789: 784: 779: 774: 768: 767: 764: 761: 758: 755: 752: 749: 746: 743: 740: 736: 735: 730: 725: 720: 715: 710: 705: 700: 695: 689: 688: 683: 678: 673: 668: 663: 658: 653: 648: 643: 637: 636: 632: 631: 628: 625: 622: 619: 616: 613: 610: 607: 604: 600: 599: 594: 589: 584: 578: 577: 572: 567: 562: 557: 552: 547: 542: 537: 532: 526: 525: 521: 520: 519:Winning party 517: 514: 500: 497: 400: 397: 396: 395: 380: 377: 327:election cycle 253: 252: 210: 208: 201: 195: 192: 187:Main article: 184: 181: 171:The quarterly 134:JPMorgan Chase 123:economic trend 110: 107: 89:Middle English 76: 73: 55:economic trend 15: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 5166: 5155: 5152: 5150: 5147: 5145: 5142: 5140: 5137: 5136: 5134: 5121: 5117: 5111: 5103: 5097: 5089: 5085: 5079: 5072: 5071: 5070:The Economist 5066: 5061: 5046: 5042: 5035: 5027: 5023: 5017: 5010: 5009: 5004: 4998: 4990: 4986: 4983:Leip, David. 4979: 4963: 4959: 4952: 4936: 4929: 4913: 4906: 4898: 4891: 4884: 4880: 4873: 4858: 4854: 4848: 4832: 4828: 4822: 4806: 4802: 4796: 4781: 4775: 4759: 4755: 4749: 4742: 4738: 4734: 4731: 4725: 4723: 4707: 4706: 4701: 4694: 4679: 4678: 4673: 4666: 4658: 4654: 4648: 4640: 4636: 4629: 4621: 4617: 4611: 4596: 4592: 4586: 4572: 4568: 4561: 4559: 4544: 4540: 4534: 4527: 4523: 4517: 4503: 4499: 4493: 4491: 4476: 4472: 4466: 4464: 4462: 4454: 4450: 4444: 4442: 4440: 4435: 4426: 4425: 4421: 4419: 4416: 4414: 4411: 4409: 4406: 4404: 4401: 4399: 4396: 4394: 4393:Early adopter 4391: 4389: 4386: 4384: 4381: 4380: 4374: 4372: 4368: 4364: 4354: 4351: 4347: 4343: 4339: 4329: 4327: 4323: 4319: 4315: 4305: 4303: 4299: 4295: 4291: 4287: 4283: 4279: 4269: 4267: 4263: 4258: 4256: 4252: 4248: 4244: 4240: 4236: 4232: 4217: 4215: 4211: 4207: 4203: 4200: 4199:2020 election 4196: 4192: 4188: 4184: 4180: 4176: 4172: 4164: 4160: 4156: 4152: 4148: 4144: 4141: 4138: 4134: 4130: 4126: 4123: 4120: 4116: 4112: 4108: 4105: 4102: 4098: 4094: 4090: 4087: 4086: 4085: 4084: 4077: 4073: 4069: 4065: 4061: 4057: 4054: 4051: 4047: 4043: 4039: 4035: 4031: 4028: 4025: 4021: 4017: 4013: 4009: 4005: 4004:New Hampshire 4002: 3999: 3995: 3991: 3987: 3983: 3979: 3976: 3973: 3969: 3965: 3961: 3957: 3953: 3950: 3947: 3943: 3939: 3935: 3931: 3927: 3924: 3921: 3917: 3913: 3909: 3905: 3901: 3898: 3895: 3891: 3887: 3883: 3879: 3875: 3872: 3869: 3865: 3861: 3857: 3853: 3849: 3846: 3843: 3839: 3835: 3831: 3827: 3823: 3819: 3816: 3812: 3811:2012 election 3808: 3804: 3800: 3796: 3792: 3789: 3786: 3782: 3778: 3774: 3770: 3767: 3764: 3760: 3756: 3752: 3748: 3745: 3742: 3738: 3734: 3730: 3726: 3723: 3720: 3716: 3712: 3708: 3705: 3702: 3698: 3694: 3690: 3687: 3684: 3680: 3676: 3672: 3669: 3666: 3662: 3658: 3654: 3651: 3648: 3644: 3640: 3636: 3632: 3628: 3627: 3622: 3619: 3615: 3611: 3608: 3605: 3601: 3597: 3594: 3591: 3587: 3583: 3580: 3577: 3573: 3569: 3565: 3561: 3557: 3556: 3555: 3554: 3547: 3544: 3541: 3538: 3535: 3532: 3529: 3528: 3527: 3523: 3522: 3515: 3511: 3507: 3504: 3501: 3497: 3493: 3492:New Hampshire 3490: 3487: 3483: 3479: 3476: 3473: 3469: 3465: 3462: 3459: 3455: 3451: 3448: 3445: 3441: 3438: 3435: 3431: 3428: 3427: 3426: 3425: 3423: 3414: 3411: 3408: 3405: 3402: 3401: 3400: 3397: 3396: 3389: 3385: 3381: 3377: 3373: 3370: 3367: 3363: 3359: 3355: 3351: 3348: 3345: 3341: 3337: 3333: 3329: 3326: 3323: 3319: 3315: 3311: 3307: 3304: 3303: 3302: 3301: 3297: 3295: 3291: 3287: 3280: 3273:United States 3270: 3268: 3264: 3260: 3256: 3252: 3248: 3247:Glasgow Govan 3244: 3240: 3236: 3232: 3228: 3224: 3220: 3216: 3212: 3208: 3204: 3200: 3199:Almond Valley 3195: 3193: 3189: 3185: 3181: 3177: 3167: 3164: 3154: 3152: 3144: 3140: 3137: 3134: 3130: 3126: 3122: 3118: 3115: 3112: 3109: 3106: 3102: 3098: 3095: 3092: 3089: 3086: 3082: 3078: 3075: 3072: 3068: 3064: 3061: 3058: 3054: 3050: 3047: 3044: 3040: 3036: 3033: 3030: 3026: 3022: 3019: 3016: 3012: 3008: 3004: 3001: 3000: 2999: 2998: 2991: 2987: 2983: 2979: 2975: 2971: 2967: 2963: 2959: 2955: 2954:Cannock Chase 2952: 2949: 2945: 2941: 2937: 2936:Norwich North 2933: 2929: 2925: 2921: 2917: 2916:Calder Valley 2913: 2909: 2906: 2903: 2899: 2895: 2891: 2887: 2883: 2879: 2875: 2871: 2867: 2863: 2859: 2855: 2851: 2847: 2843: 2839: 2835: 2831: 2827: 2823: 2820: 2817: 2813: 2809: 2805: 2801: 2798: 2795: 2791: 2787: 2783: 2779: 2775: 2771: 2768: 2765: 2761: 2757: 2754: 2753: 2752: 2751: 2747: 2745: 2741: 2737: 2728: 2726: 2722: 2718: 2714: 2708: 2706: 2702: 2698: 2695:According to 2693: 2691: 2687: 2683: 2679: 2675: 2671: 2666: 2652: 2648: 2644: 2640: 2636: 2635:Caraș-Severin 2633: 2630: 2626: 2622: 2618: 2614: 2611: 2608: 2604: 2600: 2596: 2592: 2589: 2586: 2582: 2578: 2574: 2570: 2567: 2564: 2560: 2556: 2552: 2548: 2545: 2542: 2538: 2534: 2530: 2526: 2523: 2520: 2516: 2512: 2508: 2505: 2502: 2498: 2494: 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1935: 1930: 1929:, inclusive. 1928: 1924: 1920: 1916: 1912: 1908: 1904: 1900: 1896: 1892: 1888: 1884: 1883:Liberal Party 1880: 1876: 1872: 1868: 1864: 1860: 1856: 1841: 1838: 1835: 1832: 1829: 1826: 1823: 1820: 1819: 1816: 1811: 1806: 1803: 1801: 1796: 1795:Did not exist 1791: 1786: 1782: 1778: 1775: 1772: 1769: 1766: 1763: 1760: 1757: 1754: 1751: 1750: 1747: 1744: 1742: 1737: 1732: 1727: 1722: 1718: 1714: 1711: 1708: 1705: 1702: 1699: 1696: 1693: 1690: 1687: 1686: 1683: 1678: 1673: 1668: 1663: 1659: 1655: 1652: 1649: 1646: 1643: 1640: 1637: 1634: 1631: 1628: 1627: 1624: 1619: 1614: 1609: 1604: 1600: 1596: 1593: 1590: 1587: 1584: 1581: 1578: 1575: 1572: 1569: 1568: 1565: 1560: 1555: 1550: 1546: 1542: 1539: 1536: 1533: 1530: 1527: 1524: 1521: 1518: 1515: 1514: 1511: 1506: 1501: 1496: 1492: 1488: 1485: 1482: 1479: 1476: 1473: 1470: 1467: 1464: 1461: 1460: 1457: 1452: 1449: 1447: 1442: 1437: 1433: 1429: 1426: 1423: 1420: 1417: 1414: 1411: 1408: 1405: 1402: 1401: 1398: 1393: 1390: 1388: 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Index

Bellwether (disambiguation)
leader
politics
microcosm
election
economics
economic trend
Sociologists
active sense
trends

Middle English
bell
economics
finance
economic trend
stock market
JPMorgan Chase
Tata Consultancy Services
BSE
NSE
government bond
interest rate
bond market
Institute of Practitioners in Advertising
Bellwether trial
spinning off
relocating
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