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359:. He explains that significance "is the average value added by bringing about a certain state of affairs", persistence means "how long that state of affairs lasts, once it has been brought about", and contingency "refers to the extent to which the state of affairs depends on an individual’s action". Moreover, MacAskill acknowledges the pervasive uncertainty, both moral and empirical, that surrounds longtermism and offers four lessons to help guide attempts to improve the long-term future: taking robustly good actions, building up options, learning more, and avoiding causing harm.
102:... is especially concerned with the impacts of our actions upon the longterm future. It takes seriously the fact that our own generation is but one page in a much longer story, and that our most important role may be how we shape—or fail to shape—that story. Working to safeguard humanity's potential is one avenue for such a lasting impact and there may be others too." In addition, Ord notes that "longtermism is animated by a moral re-orientation toward the vast future that existential risks threaten to foreclose."
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contingency rather than an inevitable event. Brown has argued that a moral revolution made slavery unacceptable at a time when it was still hugely profitable. MacAskill suggests that abolition may be a turning point in the entirety of human history, with the practice unlikely to return. For this reason, bringing about positive value changes in society may be one way in which the present generation can positively influence the long-run future.
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298:, have, for the first time, given humanity the power to annihilate itself, which would impact the long-term future by preventing the existence and flourishing of future generations. At the same time, progress made in the physical and social sciences has given humanity the ability to more accurately predict (at least some) of the long-term effects of the actions taken in the present.
245:. Reducing any of these risks may significantly improve the future over long timescales by increasing the number and quality of future lives. Consequently, advocates of longtermism argue that humanity is at a crucial moment in its history where the choices made this century may shape its entire future.
628:
can be justified on the basis of kinship. That is, common-sense morality allows us to be partial to those more closely related to us, so "we can permissibly weight the welfare of each succeeding generation less than that of the generation preceding it." This view is called temporalism and states that
301:
MacAskill also notes that our present time is highly unusual in that "we live in an era that involves an extraordinary amount of change"—both relative to the past (where rates of economic and technological progress were very slow) and to the future (since current growth rates cannot continue for long
663:
Advocates of longtermism reply that the kinds of actions that are good for the long-term future are often also good for the present. An example of this is pandemic preparedness. Preparing for the worst case pandemics—those which could threaten the survival of humanity—may also help to improve public
382:
of population ethics, on which bringing more happy people into existence is good, all other things being equal. Accepting such a view makes the case for longtermism particularly strong because the fact that there could be huge numbers of future people means that improving their lives and, crucially,
276:
Another way to achieve a trajectory change is by changing societal values. William MacAskill argues that humanity should not expect positive value changes to happen by default. He uses the abolition of slavery as an example, which historians like
Christopher Leslie Brown consider to be a historical
121:
The term "longtermism" was coined around 2017 by Oxford philosophers
William MacAskill and Toby Ord. The view draws inspiration from the work of Nick Bostrom, Nick Beckstead, and others. While its coinage is relatively new, some aspects of longtermism have been thought about for centuries. The oral
672:
A further objection to longtermism is that it relies on accepting low probability bets of extremely big payoffs rather than more certain bets of lower payoffs (provided that the expected value is higher). From a longtermist perspective, it seems that if the probability of some existential risk is
642:
One objection to longtermism is that it relies on predictions of the effects of our actions over very long time horizons, which is difficult at best and impossible at worst. In response to this challenge, researchers interested in longtermism have sought to identify "value lock in" events—events,
248:
Proponents of longtermism have pointed out that humanity spends less than 0.001% of the gross world product annually on longtermist causes (i.e., activities explicitly meant to positively influence the long-term future of humanity). This is less than 5% of the amount that is spent annually on ice
418:
Effective altruism promotes the idea of moral impartiality, suggesting that people’s worth does not diminish simply because they live in a different location. Longtermists like MacAskill extend this principle by proposing that "distance in time is like distance in space". Longtermists generally
331:
Because the arrow of time makes it so much easier to help people who come after you than people who come before, the best way of understanding the partnership of the generations may be asymmetrical, with duties all flowing forwards in time—paying it forwards. On this view, our duties to future
680:
Advocates of longtermism have adopted a variety of responses to this concern. Some argue that, while unintuitive, it is ethically correct to favor infinitesimal probabilities of arbitrarily high-impact outcomes over moderate probabilities with moderately impactful outcomes. Others argue that
289:
wrote that we "live during the hinge of history" and
William MacAskill states that "the world’s long-run fate depends in part on the choices we make in our lifetimes" since "society has not yet settled down into a stable state, and we are able to influence which stable state we end up in".
326:
However, other non-consequentialist moral frameworks may also inspire longtermism. For instance, Toby Ord considers the responsibility that the present generation has towards future generations as grounded in the hard work and sacrifices made by past generations. He writes:
651:
Another concern is that longtermism may lead to deprioritizing more immediate issues. For example, some critics have argued that considering humanity's future in terms of the next 10,000 or 10 million years might lead to downplaying the nearer-term effects of
605:. Ord also considers that modeling the uncertainty that the benefit will occur with an exponential decrease poorly reflects the reality of changing risks over time, particularly as some catastrophic risks may diminish or be mitigated in the long term.
664:
health in the present. For example, funding research and innovation in antivirals, vaccines, and personal protective equipment, as well as lobbying governments to prepare for pandemics, may help prevent smaller scale health threats for people today.
347:, William MacAskill discusses how individuals can shape the course of history. He introduces a three-part framework for thinking about effects on the future, which states that the long-term value of an outcome we may bring about depends on its
61:... we can positively affect future peoples' lives." These three ideas taken together suggest, to those advocating longtermism, that it is the responsibility of those living now to ensure that future generations get to survive and flourish.
581:, who devised the discounting model, also believed that while pure time preference might describe how people behave (favoring immediate benefits), it does not offer normative guidance on what they should value ethically. Furthermore,
293:
According to Fin
Moorhouse, for most of human history, it was not clear how to positively influence the very long-run future. However, two relatively recent developments may have changed this. Developments in technology, such as
681:
longtermism need not rely on tiny probabilities as the probabilities of existential risks are within the normal range of risks that people seek to mitigate against— for example, wearing a seatbelt in case of a car crash.
401:
Longtermism is often discussed in relation to the interests of future generations of humans. However, some proponents of longtermism also put high moral value on the interests of non-human beings. From this perspective,
158:
Longtermist ideas have given rise to a community of individuals and organizations working to protect the interests of future generations. Organizations working on longtermist topics include
Cambridge University's
126:, encourages all decision-making to “have always in view not only the present but also the coming generations”. This has been interpreted to mean that decisions should be made so as to be of benefit to the
323:
such as utilitarianism may generally be sympathetic to longtermism since whatever the theory considers morally valuable, there is likely going to be much more of it in the future than in the present.
319:
may motivate longtermism given the importance it places on pursuing the greatest good for the greatest number, with future generations expected to be the vast majority of all people to ever exist.
660:
has argued that avoiding this will require societies to adopt a "more textured, multifaceted, multidimensional longtermism that defies insular information silos and disciplinary echo chambers".
410:
may be a particularly important longtermist cause area, notably because a moral norm of caring about the suffering of non-human life might persist for a very long time if it becomes widespread.
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257:
Existential risks are extreme examples of what researchers call a "trajectory change". However, there might be other ways to positively influence how the future will unfold. Economist
1548:
656:. They also worry that the most radical forms of strong longtermism could in theory justify atrocities in the name of attaining "astronomical" amounts of future value. Anthropologist
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493:
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very low, and the value of the future is very high, then working to reduce the risk, even by tiny amounts, has extremely high expected value. An illustration of this problem is
249:
cream in the U.S., leading Toby Ord to argue that humanity “start by spending more on protecting our future than we do on ice cream, and decide where to go from there”.
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Because it is generally infeasible to use traditional research techniques such as randomized controlled trials to analyze existential risks, researchers such as
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have used methods such as expert opinion elicitation to estimate their importance. Ord offered probability estimates for a number of existential risks in
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1571:
1269:"Longtermism - Frequently Asked Questions: Is longtermism asking that we make enormous sacrifices for the future? Isn't that unreasonably demanding?"
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677:, which involves the exploitation of an expected value maximizer via their willingness to accept such low probability bets of large payoffs.
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such as human extinction, which we may influence in the near-term but that will have very long-lasting, predictable future effects.
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is a top moral priority because it will make future generations wealthier. Other researchers think that improving institutions like
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as "the view that positively influencing the longterm future is a key moral priority of our time". He distinguishes it from
19:
1441:"Longtermism - Frequently Asked Questions: Isn't much of longtermism obvious? Why are people only just realising all this?"
1317:
John, Tyler M.; MacAskill, William (2021). "Longtermist institutional reform". In
Cargill, Natalie; John, Tyler M. (eds.).
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1301:
187:, thereby ensuring civilisation’s survival; or by changing civilisation’s trajectory to make it better while it lasts.
3170:
1399:"Will MacAskill on balancing frugality with ambition, whether you need longtermism, and mental health under pressure"
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1352:"Why I prioritize moral circle expansion over reducing extinction risk through artificial intelligence alignment"
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57:... there may well be more people alive in the future than there are in the present or have been in the past; and
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Broadly, ensuring survival increases the quantity of future life; trajectory changes increase its quality".
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Researchers studying longtermism believe that we can improve the long-term future in two ways: "by averting
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is "a risk that threatens the destruction of humanity’s longterm potential", including risks which cause
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with how far they are in time. In the standard Ramsey model used in economics, the social discount rate
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generations may thus be grounded in the work our ancestors did for us when we were future generations.
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combines the "catastrophe rate" (discounting for the risk that future benefits won't occur) and
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Stubborn
Attachments: A Vision for a Society of Free, Prosperous, and Responsible Individuals
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Stubborn
Attachments: A Vision for a Society of Free, Prosperous, and Responsible Individuals
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2255:
1492:"Utilitarianism and Practical Ethics – Longtermism: Expanding the Moral Circle Across Time"
710:
584:
567:
501:
437:
427:
420:
1997:
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plays an important part in longtermist thinking. Many advocates of longtermism accept the
8:
3491:
3374:
3369:
3114:
3033:
2852:
2832:
2822:
2490:
1841:
674:
629:"temporal proximity (...) strengthens certain moral duties, including the duty to save".
136:
1670:"Time discounting, consistency and special obligations: a defence of Robust Temporalism"
3436:
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3028:
2985:
2904:
2571:
2531:
2516:
2470:
2435:
2405:
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2171:
2017:"The future is vast: longtermism's perspective on humanity's past, present, and future"
695:
525:
123:
50:
39:
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1514:
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2185:
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1901:
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1487:
1394:
1374:
1327:
1297:
982:
972:
899:
889:
705:
375:
218:
70:
1002:"Probabilities, methodologies and the evidence base in existential risk assessments"
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3109:
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2975:
2926:
2847:
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2812:
2769:
2650:
2301:
2291:
2230:
2096:
1796:
1249:
1036:
715:
574:
320:
214:
608:
In contrast, Andreas
Mogensen argues that a positive rate of pure time preference
3404:
3314:
3299:
3165:
3130:
2939:
2420:
2395:
2215:
720:
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141:
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3329:
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2250:
2205:
653:
396:
316:
295:
242:
2130:
2101:
1219:
Beckstead, Nick (2013). "Chapter 1.1.2: How could we affect the far future?".
986:
167:, the Global Priorities Institute, the Stanford Existential Risks Initiative,
3726:
3634:
3359:
3344:
3339:
3324:
3145:
3099:
2857:
2546:
2526:
2450:
2110:
1622:
1191:"How effective altruism went from a niche movement to a billion-dollar force"
1800:
1781:
1253:
601:
only applies to monetary benefits, not moral benefits, since it is based on
130:. These ideas have re-emerged in contemporary thought with thinkers such as
3607:
3005:
2764:
2425:
2347:
2321:
2316:
2306:
2281:
1765:
1416:
426:
When evaluating future benefits, economists typically use the concept of a
286:
168:
131:
106:
1237:
3190:
3185:
3150:
3013:
2400:
2016:
258:
3349:
3334:
3160:
3140:
2276:
2134:
1873:
The Long View: Essays on Policy, Philanthropy, and the Long-term Future
1171:
392:
315:
Longtermism has been defended by appealing to various moral theories.
285:
Longtermists argue that we live at a pivotal moment in human history.
3618:
3564:
3018:
2326:
2140:
690:
423:, which values future benefits less simply because they occur later.
3411:
2561:
2430:
2311:
962:
667:
226:
95:
38:
is a key moral priority of our time. It is an important concept in
49:
The key argument for longtermism has been summarized as follows: "
3384:
2699:
823:"Would you donate to a charity that won't pay out for centuries?"
1122:
758:"Longtermism – why the million-year philosophy can't be ignored"
570:(valuing future benefits intrinsically less than present ones).
3048:
573:
Toby Ord argues that a nonzero pure time preference applied to
81:, "the view that positively influencing the longterm future is
35:
31:
2127:, Online introduction and resource compilation on longtermism
1712:"Why longtermism is the world's most dangerous secular credo"
383:
ensuring that those lives happen at all, has enormous value.
1842:"Longtermism: how much should we care about the far future?"
1225:. New Brunswick Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey.
966:
2124:
2047:"Longtermism: the moral significance of future generations"
1914:
1515:"Longtermism: the moral significance of future generations"
430:, which posits that the value of future benefits decreases
23:
Comparing the number of human lives in the past and present
968:
The
Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
91:
The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
175:, The Forethought Foundation, and Longview Philanthropy.
16:
Philosophical view which prioritises the long-term future
1862:
On the overwhelming importance of shaping the far future
1222:
On The Overwhelming Importance of Shaping the Far Future
42:
and a primary motivation for efforts that aim to reduce
3589:
UN Conference on the Human Environment (Stockholm 1972)
2066:"Safeguarding the long-term future: Cause area profile"
1009:
Working Paper, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
646:
371:
Illustrating the potential number of future human lives
273:
bodies could bring about positive trajectory changes.
2537:
Existential risk from artificial general intelligence
1176:
Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research
614:
587:
552:
528:
504:
463:
440:
2357:
All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations
2040:. Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford.
1947:"Transcript: Ezra Klein interviews Holden Karnofsky"
1940:. Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford.
336:
1371:Moral Capital: Foundations of British Abolitionism
620:
593:
558:
534:
510:
487:
446:
53:matter morally just as much as people alive today;
1486:
3724:
1933:
1534:
1238:"Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority"
668:Reliance on small probabilities of large payoffs
1870:Cargill, Natalie; John, Tyler M., eds. (2021).
1846:1000-Word Philosophy: An Introductory Anthology
1710:Torres, Phil (2021-10-19). Dresser, Sam (ed.).
1423:. Oxford: Oxford University Press. p. 611.
1123:"About us: what do we do, and how can we help?"
3613:Rio Declaration on Environment and Development
2376:Centre for Enabling EA Learning & Research
2131:The Last Human – A Glimpse Into the Far Future
1644:"'The only ethical argument for positive 𝛿'?"
798:"Effective altruism's most controversial idea"
122:constitution of the Iroquois Confederacy, the
98:describes longtermism as follows: "longtermism
2715:
2665:Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies
2156:
1960:"What is longtermism and why does it matter?"
1584:
1316:
520:elasticity of marginal utility of consumption
305:
2241:Psychological barriers to effective altruism
1934:Greaves, Hilary; Macaskill, William (2021).
1635:
1535:Greaves, Hilary; MacAskill, William (2021).
1368:
993:
957:
2085:"The Case for Animal-Inclusive Longtermism"
1869:
955:
953:
951:
949:
947:
945:
943:
941:
939:
937:
603:diminishing marginal utility of consumption
280:
3684:
2722:
2708:
2211:Distributional cost-effectiveness analysis
2163:
2149:
1915:Global Priorities Institute (2022-09-01).
231:climate change and civilizational collapse
178:
34:that positively influencing the long-term
3624:Convention on Biological Diversity (1992)
2100:
1995:
1976:
1957:
1858:
1820:Global Priorities Institute Working Paper
1813:
1674:Global Priorities Institute Working Paper
1541:Global Priorities Institute Working Paper
1438:
1393:
1266:
1218:
1096:
999:
921:
888:
577:is arbitrary and illegitimate. Economist
3652:UN Conference on Sustainable Development
2386:Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
2063:
1693:"The epistemic challenge to longtermism"
1641:
1188:
934:
386:
366:
161:Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
18:
2466:Machine Intelligence Research Institute
2082:
2033:
1839:
1779:
1690:
1561:
1235:
3725:
3222:Corporate environmental responsibility
2170:
2037:The epistemic challenge to longtermism
1709:
1415:
1071:
852:
820:
795:
755:
2703:
2144:
2014:
1944:
1893:
1758:
1667:
1530:
1528:
1461:
1434:
1432:
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1349:
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1289:
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884:
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868:
848:
846:
844:
842:
751:
749:
747:
488:{\displaystyle \rho =\eta g+\delta ,}
252:
3595:Brundtlandt Commission Report (1983)
2044:
1512:
1097:MacAskill, William (8 August 2022).
1037:Constitution of the Iroquois Nations
917:
915:
791:
789:
787:
785:
783:
781:
779:
777:
647:Deprioritization of immediate issues
362:
194:
2381:Center for High Impact Philanthropy
1585:Godfrey-Smith, Peter (2024-09-24).
1464:"The Toxic Ideology of Longtermism"
1172:"About Us – Forethought Foundation"
1074:"What we owe to future generations"
1018:from the original on 27 August 2018
1000:Rowe, Thomas; Beard, Simon (2018).
961:
637:
261:argues that increasing the rate of
13:
3237:Environmental full-cost accounting
2729:
2083:O’Brien, Gary David (2024-01-19).
1833:
1807:
1703:
1642:Mogensen, Andreas (October 2019).
1574:from the original on 14 July 2022.
1525:
1502:from the original on 16 June 2022.
1451:from the original on 14 July 2022.
1427:
1387:
1369:Leslie Brown, Christopher (2006).
1362:
1340:
1279:from the original on 14 July 2022.
1207:
865:
853:Setiya, Kieran (August 15, 2022).
839:
744:
413:
221:. Examples of these risks include
14:
3759:
3171:Run-of-the-river hydroelectricity
2118:
1977:MacAskill, William (2022-08-05).
1958:MacAskill, William (2022-08-08).
1761:"Risks of catastrophic pandemics"
1587:"Is Longtermism Such a Big Deal?"
1564:"Longtermism and animal advocacy"
1551:from the original on 9 July 2022.
1537:"The case for strong longtermism"
1496:An Introduction to Utilitarianism
1061:from the original on 11 May 2022.
971:. London: Bloomsbury Publishing.
922:MacAskill, William (2019-07-25).
912:
774:
404:expanding humanity's moral circle
302:before hitting physical limits).
237:, and emerging technologies like
85:key moral priority of our time".
3683:
3672:
3671:
3641:UN Millennium Declaration (2000)
2221:Equal consideration of interests
1350:Reese, Jacy (20 February 2018).
337:Evaluating effects on the future
128:seventh generation in the future
3227:Corporate social responsibility
3156:Ocean thermal energy conversion
3095:Community-supported agriculture
2780:Human impact on the environment
2623:Famine, Affluence, and Morality
2391:Development Media International
1937:The case for strong longtermism
1900:. San Francisco: Stripe Press.
1773:
1752:
1728:
1684:
1661:
1603:
1578:
1555:
1506:
1480:
1455:
1409:
1326:. UK: FIRST Strategic Insight.
1310:
1283:
1260:
1229:
1182:
1164:
1139:
1115:
1090:
1065:
1042:
321:Consequentialist moral theories
310:
3467:Socially responsible marketing
2587:Risk of astronomical suffering
2137:covering key longtermist ideas
1189:Matthews, Dylan (2022-08-08).
1030:
814:
1:
3658:Sustainable Development Goals
3462:Socially responsible business
2371:Centre for Effective Altruism
2201:Disability-adjusted life year
1998:"Introduction to longtermism"
1996:Moorhouse, Fin (2021-01-27).
1865:(Thesis). Rutgers University.
1840:Balfour, Dylan (2021-09-17).
1649:. Global Priorities Institute
1568:Center for Reducing Suffering
738:
64:
2486:Raising for Effective Giving
2411:Future of Humanity Institute
1072:Samuel, Sigal (2021-07-02).
1049:Lyons, Oren (October 2004).
821:Samuel, Sigal (2021-11-03).
796:Samuel, Sigal (2022-09-06).
756:Steele, Katie (2022-12-19).
632:
205:Global catastrophe scenarios
153:
7:
3487:Sustainability organization
3272:Standards and certification
2863:Social return on investment
2637:Living High and Letting Die
2582:Neglected tropical diseases
2089:Journal of Moral Philosophy
2034:Tarsney, Christian (2019).
1921:Global Priorities Institute
1691:Tarsney, Christian (2019).
1490:; Meissner, Darius (2022).
1147:"Global Catastrophic Risks"
855:"The New Moral Mathematics"
684:
10:
3764:
2912:Systemic change resistance
2353:Against Malaria Foundation
2246:Quality-adjusted life year
2064:Townsend, Michael (2021).
1979:"The case for longtermism"
1816:"In defence of fanaticism"
1814:Wilkinson, Hayden (2020).
726:Timeline of the far future
390:
306:Theoretical considerations
198:
116:
3667:
3578:
3515:
3287:
3214:
3123:
3090:Climate-smart agriculture
3075:
3047:
3004:
2958:
2925:
2798:
2755:
2737:
2689:Effective Altruism Global
2681:
2616:The End of Animal Farming
2600:
2509:
2476:Nuclear Threat Initiative
2361:Animal Charity Evaluators
2340:
2264:
2178:
2102:10.1163/17455243-20234296
2015:Roser, Max (2022-03-15).
1421:On What Matters, Volume 2
898:. New York: Basic Books.
225:, natural and engineered
3232:Environmental accounting
2981:Sustainable architecture
2971:Environmental technology
2644:The Most Good You Can Do
2557:Intensive animal farming
2542:Global catastrophic risk
2416:Future of Life Institute
1859:Beckstead, Nick (2013).
1562:Baumann, Tobias (2020).
1356:Effective Altruism Forum
1055:Center for New Economics
928:Effective Altruism Forum
701:Intergenerational equity
281:Living at a pivotal time
271:international governance
201:Global catastrophic risk
165:Future of Life Institute
3105:Sustainable agriculture
2446:The Good Food Institute
2196:Demandingness objection
2045:Todd, Benjamin (2017).
1759:Lewis, Gregory (2020).
1611:"What is long-termism?"
1513:Todd, Benjamin (2017).
1439:Moorhouse, Fin (2021).
1267:Moorhouse, Fin (2021).
1254:10.1111/1758-5899.12002
621:{\displaystyle \delta }
559:{\displaystyle \delta }
419:reject the notion of a
239:artificial intelligence
179:Implications for action
3648:(Rio+10, Johannesburg)
3517:Sustainable management
3502:Urban drainage systems
3242:Environmental planning
3206:Water recycling shower
3196:Tidal stream generator
2991:Sustainable industries
2950:Sustainable population
2935:Demographic transition
2917:Tragedy of the commons
2672:What We Owe the Future
2501:Wild Animal Initiative
2236:Moral circle expansion
1917:"What is longtermism?"
1780:Bostrom, Nick (2009).
1468:Radical Philosophy 214
1236:Bostrom, Nick (2013).
1099:"What is longtermism?"
895:What We Owe the Future
732:What We Owe the Future
622:
595:
560:
536:
512:
489:
448:
372:
344:What We Owe the Future
334:
185:permanent catastrophes
24:
3540:Humanistic capitalism
3355:Environmental finance
2996:Sustainable packaging
2630:The Life You Can Save
2592:Wild animal suffering
2133:, a YouTube video by
1894:Cowen, Tyler (2018).
1801:10.1093/analys/anp062
1736:"Deep Time Reckoning"
1668:Lloyd, Harry (2021).
1617:. November 22, 2022.
1462:Crary, Alice (2023).
1290:Cowen, Tyler (2018).
623:
596:
594:{\displaystyle \eta }
561:
537:
513:
511:{\displaystyle \eta }
490:
449:
447:{\displaystyle \rho }
387:Other sentient beings
370:
329:
147:The Fate of the Earth
22:
3507:Urban infrastructure
3201:Water heat recycling
3024:Conservation biology
2868:Steady-state economy
2843:Micro-sustainability
2828:Ecological footprint
2785:Planetary boundaries
2256:Venture philanthropy
1945:Klein, Ezra (2021).
1051:"The Ice is Melting"
711:Social discount rate
612:
585:
568:pure time preference
550:
526:
502:
461:
438:
428:social discount rate
421:pure time preference
267:national governments
3608:Earth Summit (1992)
3262:Metrics and indices
3115:Sustainable fishery
3034:Holocene extinction
2853:Product stewardship
2823:Earth Overshoot Day
2491:Sentience Institute
137:Reasons and Persons
3733:Effective altruism
3067:Sustainable energy
3029:Endangered species
2986:Sustainable design
2900:Consumer behaviour
2572:Malaria prevention
2532:Economic stability
2517:Biotechnology risk
2471:Malaria Consortium
2436:Giving What We Can
2406:Fistula Foundation
2191:Charity assessment
2172:Effective altruism
2070:Giving What We Can
2002:Effective Altruism
1951:The New York Times
1782:"Pascal's mugging"
1488:MacAskill, William
1395:MacAskill, William
890:MacAskill, William
696:Effective altruism
618:
591:
556:
532:
508:
485:
444:
373:
253:Trajectory changes
79:strong longtermism
40:effective altruism
25:
3720:
3719:
3646:Earth Summit 2002
3629:Lisbon Principles
3601:Our Common Future
3279:Sustainable yield
3085:Civic agriculture
2838:Green consumption
2775:Global governance
2697:
2696:
2609:Doing Good Better
2481:Open Philanthropy
2461:Mercy for Animals
2456:The Humane League
2332:Eliezer Yudkowsky
2297:William MacAskill
2272:Sam Bankman-Fried
2186:Aid effectiveness
2021:Our World in Data
1907:978-1-73226-513-4
1886:978-0-9957281-8-9
1879:. London: FIRST.
1697:GPI Working Paper
1380:978-0-8078-5698-7
1333:978-0-9957281-8-9
1151:Open Philanthropy
978:978-1-5266-0021-9
905:978-1-5416-1862-6
706:Population ethics
535:{\displaystyle g}
376:Population ethics
363:Population ethics
219:societal collapse
195:Existential risks
173:Open Philanthropy
144:in his 1982 book
134:in his 1984 book
71:William MacAskill
44:existential risks
3755:
3743:Ethical theories
3687:
3686:
3675:
3674:
3619:Agenda 21 (1992)
3590:
3555:Natural resource
3442:Organic movement
3417:Impact investing
3136:Hydroelectricity
3110:Sustainable diet
3062:Renewable energy
3057:Carbon footprint
3039:Invasive species
2976:Natural building
2927:World population
2888:Marketing myopia
2848:Over-consumption
2818:Circular economy
2813:Anti-consumerism
2770:Environmentalism
2724:
2717:
2710:
2701:
2700:
2651:Practical Ethics
2302:Dustin Moskovitz
2292:Holden Karnofsky
2231:Marginal utility
2165:
2158:
2151:
2142:
2141:
2114:
2104:
2079:
2077:
2076:
2060:
2058:
2057:
2041:
2030:
2028:
2027:
2011:
2009:
2008:
1992:
1990:
1989:
1973:
1971:
1970:
1954:
1941:
1930:
1928:
1927:
1911:
1890:
1878:
1866:
1855:
1853:
1852:
1828:
1827:
1811:
1805:
1804:
1786:
1777:
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1725:
1723:
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1707:
1701:
1700:
1688:
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1665:
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1656:
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1607:
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1559:
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1532:
1523:
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1510:
1504:
1503:
1484:
1478:
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1436:
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1413:
1407:
1406:
1391:
1385:
1384:
1366:
1360:
1359:
1347:
1338:
1337:
1325:
1314:
1308:
1307:
1296:. Stripe Press.
1287:
1281:
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1227:
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1017:
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959:
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919:
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909:
886:
863:
862:
850:
837:
836:
834:
833:
818:
812:
811:
809:
808:
793:
772:
771:
769:
768:
762:The Conversation
753:
716:Space governance
675:Pascal’s mugging
638:Unpredictability
627:
625:
624:
619:
600:
598:
597:
592:
575:normative ethics
565:
563:
562:
557:
541:
539:
538:
533:
517:
515:
514:
509:
494:
492:
491:
486:
453:
451:
450:
445:
233:, stable global
215:human extinction
211:existential risk
190:
101:
60:
56:
3763:
3762:
3758:
3757:
3756:
3754:
3753:
3752:
3748:2017 neologisms
3738:Futures studies
3723:
3722:
3721:
3716:
3663:
3588:
3580:
3579:Agreements and
3574:
3511:
3315:Climate finance
3283:
3210:
3166:Reclaimed water
3119:
3071:
3043:
3000:
2954:
2940:Family planning
2921:
2794:
2751:
2733:
2728:
2698:
2693:
2677:
2596:
2562:Land use reform
2505:
2421:Founders Pledge
2396:Evidence Action
2336:
2260:
2216:Earning to give
2174:
2169:
2125:Longtermism.com
2121:
2074:
2072:
2055:
2053:
2025:
2023:
2006:
2004:
1987:
1985:
1968:
1966:
1925:
1923:
1908:
1887:
1876:
1850:
1848:
1836:
1834:Further reading
1831:
1812:
1808:
1784:
1778:
1774:
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1627:
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1609:
1608:
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1595:
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1583:
1579:
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1556:
1533:
1526:
1511:
1507:
1485:
1481:
1472:
1470:
1460:
1456:
1445:Longtermism.com
1437:
1428:
1414:
1410:
1397:(23 May 2022).
1392:
1388:
1381:
1367:
1363:
1348:
1341:
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1315:
1311:
1304:
1288:
1284:
1273:Longtermism.com
1265:
1261:
1234:
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1199:
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1187:
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1021:
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979:
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920:
913:
906:
887:
866:
851:
840:
831:
829:
819:
815:
806:
804:
794:
775:
766:
764:
754:
745:
741:
721:Suffering risks
687:
670:
658:Vincent Ialenti
649:
640:
635:
613:
610:
609:
586:
583:
582:
551:
548:
547:
527:
524:
523:
503:
500:
499:
462:
459:
458:
439:
436:
435:
416:
414:Time preference
408:sentient beings
399:
389:
365:
339:
313:
308:
296:nuclear weapons
283:
263:economic growth
255:
235:totalitarianism
207:
199:Main articles:
197:
188:
181:
156:
142:Jonathan Schell
119:
99:
67:
58:
54:
17:
12:
11:
5:
3761:
3751:
3750:
3745:
3740:
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3718:
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3715:
3714:
3707:
3700:
3693:
3681:
3668:
3665:
3664:
3662:
3661:
3655:
3654:(Rio+20, 2012)
3649:
3643:
3638:
3632:
3626:
3621:
3616:
3610:
3605:
3597:
3592:
3584:
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3562:
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3469:
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3459:
3454:
3449:
3444:
3439:
3434:
3429:
3424:
3419:
3414:
3409:
3408:
3407:
3402:
3400:Infrastructure
3397:
3387:
3382:
3377:
3372:
3367:
3362:
3357:
3352:
3347:
3342:
3337:
3332:
3330:Eco-capitalism
3327:
3322:
3317:
3312:
3307:
3302:
3297:
3291:
3289:
3285:
3284:
3282:
3281:
3276:
3275:
3274:
3269:
3264:
3259:
3254:
3247:Sustainability
3244:
3239:
3234:
3229:
3224:
3218:
3216:
3215:Accountability
3212:
3211:
3209:
3208:
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3168:
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3125:
3121:
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3117:
3112:
3107:
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3097:
3092:
3087:
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3073:
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3069:
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3041:
3036:
3031:
3026:
3021:
3016:
3010:
3008:
3002:
3001:
2999:
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2993:
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2909:
2908:
2907:
2902:
2892:
2891:
2890:
2885:
2880:
2873:Sustainability
2870:
2865:
2860:
2855:
2850:
2845:
2840:
2835:
2830:
2825:
2820:
2815:
2810:
2808:Anthropization
2804:
2802:
2796:
2795:
2793:
2792:
2787:
2782:
2777:
2772:
2767:
2761:
2759:
2753:
2752:
2750:
2749:
2744:
2738:
2735:
2734:
2731:Sustainability
2727:
2726:
2719:
2712:
2704:
2695:
2694:
2692:
2691:
2685:
2683:
2679:
2678:
2676:
2675:
2668:
2661:
2654:
2647:
2640:
2633:
2626:
2619:
2612:
2604:
2602:
2598:
2597:
2595:
2594:
2589:
2584:
2579:
2577:Mass deworming
2574:
2569:
2567:Life extension
2564:
2559:
2554:
2552:Global poverty
2549:
2544:
2539:
2534:
2529:
2524:
2522:Climate change
2519:
2513:
2511:
2507:
2506:
2504:
2503:
2498:
2496:Unlimit Health
2493:
2488:
2483:
2478:
2473:
2468:
2463:
2458:
2453:
2448:
2443:
2441:Good Food Fund
2438:
2433:
2428:
2423:
2418:
2413:
2408:
2403:
2398:
2393:
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2334:
2329:
2324:
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2314:
2309:
2304:
2299:
2294:
2289:
2287:Hilary Greaves
2284:
2279:
2274:
2268:
2266:
2262:
2261:
2259:
2258:
2253:
2251:Utilitarianism
2248:
2243:
2238:
2233:
2228:
2223:
2218:
2213:
2208:
2206:Disease burden
2203:
2198:
2193:
2188:
2182:
2180:
2176:
2175:
2168:
2167:
2160:
2153:
2145:
2139:
2138:
2128:
2120:
2119:External links
2117:
2116:
2115:
2080:
2061:
2042:
2031:
2012:
1993:
1983:New York Times
1974:
1955:
1942:
1931:
1912:
1906:
1891:
1885:
1867:
1856:
1835:
1832:
1830:
1829:
1806:
1795:(3): 443–445.
1772:
1751:
1727:
1702:
1683:
1660:
1634:
1602:
1591:Foreign Policy
1577:
1554:
1524:
1505:
1479:
1454:
1426:
1408:
1386:
1379:
1361:
1339:
1332:
1309:
1303:978-1732265134
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1114:
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654:climate change
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397:Animal welfare
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317:Utilitarianism
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243:nanotechnology
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94:, philosopher
66:
63:
15:
9:
6:
4:
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3642:
3639:
3636:
3635:Earth Charter
3633:
3630:
3627:
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3620:
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3525:Environmental
3523:
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3480:
3478:
3475:
3473:
3470:
3468:
3465:
3463:
3460:
3458:
3457:Refurbishment
3455:
3453:
3450:
3448:
3447:Organizations
3445:
3443:
3440:
3438:
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3433:
3430:
3428:
3425:
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3386:
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3376:
3373:
3371:
3368:
3366:
3363:
3361:
3360:Green economy
3358:
3356:
3353:
3351:
3348:
3346:
3345:Eco-socialism
3343:
3341:
3340:Eco-investing
3338:
3336:
3333:
3331:
3328:
3326:
3325:Disinvestment
3323:
3321:
3318:
3316:
3313:
3311:
3308:
3306:
3303:
3301:
3298:
3296:
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3280:
3277:
3273:
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3258:
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3184:
3182:
3179:
3177:
3174:
3172:
3169:
3167:
3164:
3162:
3159:
3157:
3154:
3152:
3149:
3147:
3146:Marine energy
3144:
3142:
3139:
3137:
3134:
3132:
3129:
3128:
3126:
3122:
3116:
3113:
3111:
3108:
3106:
3103:
3101:
3100:Cultured meat
3098:
3096:
3093:
3091:
3088:
3086:
3083:
3082:
3080:
3078:
3074:
3068:
3065:
3063:
3060:
3058:
3055:
3054:
3052:
3050:
3046:
3040:
3037:
3035:
3032:
3030:
3027:
3025:
3022:
3020:
3017:
3015:
3012:
3011:
3009:
3007:
3003:
2997:
2994:
2992:
2989:
2987:
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2906:
2903:
2901:
2898:
2897:
2896:
2893:
2889:
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2884:
2881:
2879:
2876:
2875:
2874:
2871:
2869:
2866:
2864:
2861:
2859:
2858:Simple living
2856:
2854:
2851:
2849:
2846:
2844:
2841:
2839:
2836:
2834:
2831:
2829:
2826:
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2821:
2819:
2816:
2814:
2811:
2809:
2806:
2805:
2803:
2801:
2797:
2791:
2788:
2786:
2783:
2781:
2778:
2776:
2773:
2771:
2768:
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2760:
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2732:
2725:
2720:
2718:
2713:
2711:
2706:
2705:
2702:
2690:
2687:
2686:
2684:
2680:
2674:
2673:
2669:
2667:
2666:
2662:
2660:
2659:
2658:The Precipice
2655:
2653:
2652:
2648:
2646:
2645:
2641:
2639:
2638:
2634:
2632:
2631:
2627:
2625:
2624:
2620:
2618:
2617:
2613:
2611:
2610:
2606:
2605:
2603:
2599:
2593:
2590:
2588:
2585:
2583:
2580:
2578:
2575:
2573:
2570:
2568:
2565:
2563:
2560:
2558:
2555:
2553:
2550:
2548:
2547:Global health
2545:
2543:
2540:
2538:
2535:
2533:
2530:
2528:
2527:Cultured meat
2525:
2523:
2520:
2518:
2515:
2514:
2512:
2508:
2502:
2499:
2497:
2494:
2492:
2489:
2487:
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2482:
2479:
2477:
2474:
2472:
2469:
2467:
2464:
2462:
2459:
2457:
2454:
2452:
2451:Good Ventures
2449:
2447:
2444:
2442:
2439:
2437:
2434:
2432:
2429:
2427:
2424:
2422:
2419:
2417:
2414:
2412:
2409:
2407:
2404:
2402:
2399:
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2394:
2392:
2389:
2387:
2384:
2382:
2379:
2377:
2374:
2372:
2369:
2367:
2366:Animal Ethics
2364:
2362:
2359:
2356:
2354:
2351:
2349:
2346:
2345:
2343:
2341:Organizations
2339:
2333:
2330:
2328:
2325:
2323:
2320:
2318:
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2222:
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2209:
2207:
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2202:
2199:
2197:
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2183:
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2173:
2166:
2161:
2159:
2154:
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2147:
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2143:
2136:
2132:
2129:
2126:
2123:
2122:
2112:
2108:
2103:
2098:
2095:(aop): 1–24.
2094:
2090:
2086:
2081:
2071:
2067:
2062:
2052:
2048:
2043:
2039:
2038:
2032:
2022:
2018:
2013:
2003:
1999:
1994:
1984:
1980:
1975:
1965:
1961:
1956:
1952:
1948:
1943:
1939:
1938:
1932:
1922:
1918:
1913:
1909:
1903:
1899:
1898:
1892:
1888:
1882:
1875:
1874:
1868:
1864:
1863:
1857:
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1687:
1679:
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1671:
1664:
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1638:
1624:
1620:
1616:
1615:The Economist
1612:
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1573:
1569:
1565:
1558:
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1501:
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1442:
1435:
1433:
1431:
1422:
1418:
1417:Parfit, Derek
1412:
1404:
1400:
1396:
1390:
1382:
1376:
1373:. UNC Press.
1372:
1365:
1357:
1353:
1346:
1344:
1335:
1329:
1322:
1321:
1320:The Long View
1313:
1305:
1299:
1295:
1294:
1286:
1278:
1274:
1270:
1263:
1255:
1251:
1247:
1243:
1242:Global Policy
1239:
1232:
1224:
1223:
1215:
1213:
1211:
1196:
1192:
1185:
1177:
1173:
1167:
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1148:
1142:
1128:
1124:
1118:
1104:
1100:
1093:
1079:
1075:
1068:
1060:
1056:
1052:
1045:
1038:
1033:
1014:
1010:
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996:
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970:
969:
964:
958:
956:
954:
952:
950:
948:
946:
944:
942:
940:
938:
929:
925:
924:"Longtermism"
918:
916:
907:
901:
897:
896:
891:
885:
883:
881:
879:
877:
875:
873:
871:
869:
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859:Boston Review
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803:
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505:
482:
479:
476:
473:
470:
467:
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457:
456:
455:
454:is given by:
441:
433:
432:exponentially
429:
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398:
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288:
278:
274:
272:
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264:
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224:
220:
217:or permanent
216:
212:
206:
202:
192:
186:
176:
174:
170:
166:
162:
151:
149:
148:
143:
139:
138:
133:
129:
125:
124:Gayanashagowa
114:
112:
111:The Precipice
108:
103:
97:
93:
92:
86:
84:
80:
76:
72:
62:
52:
51:future people
47:
46:to humanity.
45:
41:
37:
33:
29:
21:
3709:
3702:
3695:
3688:
3676:
3600:
3365:Construction
3288:Applications
3006:Biodiversity
2765:Anthropocene
2670:
2663:
2656:
2649:
2642:
2635:
2628:
2621:
2614:
2607:
2426:GiveDirectly
2348:80,000 Hours
2322:Peter Singer
2317:Derek Parfit
2307:Yew-Kwang Ng
2282:Nick Bostrom
2225:
2092:
2088:
2073:. Retrieved
2069:
2054:. Retrieved
2051:80,000 Hours
2050:
2036:
2024:. Retrieved
2020:
2005:. Retrieved
2001:
1986:. Retrieved
1982:
1967:. Retrieved
1963:
1950:
1936:
1924:. Retrieved
1920:
1896:
1872:
1861:
1849:. Retrieved
1845:
1823:
1819:
1809:
1792:
1788:
1775:
1766:80,000 Hours
1764:
1754:
1743:. Retrieved
1739:
1730:
1719:. Retrieved
1715:
1705:
1696:
1686:
1677:
1673:
1663:
1651:. Retrieved
1637:
1626:. Retrieved
1614:
1605:
1594:. Retrieved
1590:
1580:
1567:
1557:
1544:
1540:
1519:80,000 Hours
1518:
1508:
1495:
1482:
1471:. Retrieved
1467:
1457:
1444:
1420:
1411:
1403:80,000 Hours
1402:
1389:
1370:
1364:
1355:
1319:
1312:
1292:
1285:
1272:
1262:
1248:(1): 15–31.
1245:
1241:
1231:
1221:
1198:. Retrieved
1194:
1184:
1175:
1166:
1155:. Retrieved
1153:. 2016-03-02
1150:
1141:
1130:. Retrieved
1127:80,000 Hours
1126:
1117:
1106:. Retrieved
1102:
1092:
1081:. Retrieved
1077:
1067:
1054:
1044:
1032:
1020:. Retrieved
1008:
995:
967:
927:
894:
858:
830:. Retrieved
826:
816:
805:. Retrieved
801:
765:. Retrieved
761:
730:
679:
671:
662:
650:
641:
607:
579:Frank Ramsey
572:
497:
425:
417:
400:
374:
356:
352:
349:significance
348:
342:
341:In his book
340:
330:
325:
314:
311:Moral theory
300:
292:
287:Derek Parfit
284:
275:
256:
247:
208:
182:
169:80,000 Hours
157:
145:
135:
132:Derek Parfit
120:
110:
107:Nick Bostrom
104:
89:
88:In his book
87:
82:
78:
74:
69:Philosopher
68:
48:
32:ethical view
27:
26:
3581:conferences
3452:Procurement
3395:Development
3295:Advertising
3257:Measurement
3191:Tidal power
3186:Small hydro
3151:Micro hydro
3014:Biosecurity
2966:Appropriate
2895:Sustainable
2878:Advertising
2800:Consumption
2790:Development
2510:Focus areas
2401:Faunalytics
2265:Key figures
2226:Longtermism
1653:30 December
544:growth rate
357:contingency
353:persistence
259:Tyler Cowen
223:nuclear war
75:longtermism
28:Longtermism
3727:Categories
3472:Sanitation
3427:Livelihood
3350:Ecovillage
3335:Eco-cities
3252:Accounting
3161:Pico hydro
3141:Hydropower
2959:Technology
2757:Principles
2601:Literature
2277:Liv Boeree
2135:Kurzgesagt
2075:2022-08-08
2056:2022-05-11
2026:2022-03-16
2007:2021-11-09
1988:2022-08-08
1969:2022-08-08
1964:BBC Future
1926:2022-10-21
1851:2022-05-30
1745:2022-08-14
1721:2021-11-02
1699:(10–2019).
1628:2024-09-23
1596:2024-09-23
1473:2023-04-11
1200:2022-08-27
1157:2021-11-28
1132:2021-11-28
1108:2024-07-14
1083:2021-11-27
987:1143365836
832:2021-11-13
807:2024-07-14
767:2024-07-22
739:References
393:Speciesism
391:See also:
380:total view
65:Definition
3565:Recycling
3560:Planetary
3550:Materials
3545:Landscape
3530:Fisheries
3497:Transport
3422:Landscape
3405:Marketing
3380:Gardening
3320:Community
3267:Reporting
3131:Footprint
3019:Biosphere
2327:Cari Tuna
2111:1740-4681
1740:MIT Press
1623:0013-0613
1022:26 August
963:Ord, Toby
691:AI safety
633:Criticism
616:δ
589:η
554:δ
506:η
480:δ
471:η
465:ρ
442:ρ
406:to other
227:pandemics
154:Community
3678:Category
3477:Sourcing
3412:Greening
3305:Business
3181:Security
3176:Scarcity
2431:GiveWell
2312:Toby Ord
2179:Concepts
1789:Analysis
1572:Archived
1549:Archived
1500:Archived
1449:Archived
1419:(2011).
1277:Archived
1059:Archived
1013:Archived
965:(2020).
892:(2022).
685:See also
96:Toby Ord
73:defines
3711:Degrees
3704:Studies
3697:Science
3492:Tourism
3385:Geopark
3375:Finance
3370:Fashion
2945:Control
2833:Ethical
2742:Outline
1178:. 2022.
1039:, 1910.
542:is the
518:is the
117:History
30:is the
3660:(2015)
3637:(2000)
3631:(1997)
3615:(1992)
3603:(1987)
3535:Forest
3437:Market
3432:Living
3049:Energy
2905:Market
2682:Events
2109:
1904:
1883:
1621:
1377:
1330:
1300:
985:
975:
902:
546:, and
498:where
355:, and
189:
163:, the
140:, and
100:
59:
55:
36:future
3690:Lists
3570:Waste
3482:Space
3390:Green
3124:Water
2883:Brand
2747:Index
1877:(PDF)
1785:(PDF)
1647:(PDF)
1324:(PDF)
1016:(PDF)
1005:(PDF)
3310:City
3077:Food
2107:ISSN
1902:ISBN
1881:ISBN
1716:Aeon
1655:2021
1619:ISSN
1375:ISBN
1328:ISBN
1298:ISBN
1024:2018
983:OCLC
973:ISBN
900:ISBN
395:and
269:and
241:and
203:and
3300:Art
2097:doi
1797:doi
1250:doi
1195:Vox
1103:BBC
1078:Vox
827:Vox
802:Vox
209:An
83:the
3729::
2105:.
2093:-1
2091:.
2087:.
2068:.
2049:.
2019:.
2000:.
1981:.
1962:.
1949:.
1919:.
1844:.
1822:.
1818:.
1793:69
1791:.
1787:.
1763:.
1738:.
1714:.
1695:.
1678:11
1676:.
1672:.
1613:.
1589:.
1570:.
1566:.
1547:.
1543:.
1539:.
1527:^
1517:.
1498:.
1494:.
1466:.
1447:.
1443:.
1429:^
1401:.
1354:.
1342:^
1275:.
1271:.
1244:.
1240:.
1209:^
1193:.
1174:.
1149:.
1125:.
1101:.
1076:.
1057:.
1053:.
1011:.
1007:.
981:.
936:^
926:.
914:^
867:^
857:.
841:^
825:.
800:.
776:^
760:.
746:^
522:,
351:,
229:,
171:,
150:.
113:.
2723:e
2716:t
2709:v
2164:e
2157:t
2150:v
2113:.
2099::
2078:.
2059:.
2029:.
2010:.
1991:.
1972:.
1953:.
1929:.
1910:.
1889:.
1854:.
1826:.
1824:4
1803:.
1799::
1769:.
1748:.
1724:.
1680:.
1657:.
1631:.
1599:.
1545:5
1521:.
1476:.
1405:.
1383:.
1358:.
1336:.
1306:.
1256:.
1252::
1246:4
1203:.
1160:.
1135:.
1111:.
1086:.
1026:.
989:.
930:.
908:.
861:.
835:.
810:.
770:.
530:g
483:,
477:+
474:g
468:=
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.
