1660:
130:: by lowering admission standards to the military, enlistment was increased. Key to this decision was the idea that one soldier is, in the abstract, more or less equal to another, and that with the right training and superior equipment, he would factor positively in the mathematics of warfare. Inductees of the project died at three times the rate of soldiers who met the earlier standards.
153:... the sense of urgency attached to the mission came from little more than a bureaucratic fixation on meeting arbitrary deadlines so missions could be checked off a list and tallied as 'accomplished'. This emphasis on quantification has always been a hallmark of the military, but it was carried to new heights of fatuity during Donald Rumsfeld's tenure at
56:
But when the McNamara discipline is applied too literally, the first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. The second step is to disregard that which can't easily be measured or given a quantitative value. The third step is to presume that what can't be measured easily really isn't
210:
processes—such as those used for graduate medical education—evaluating candidates using only numerical metrics results in ignoring non-quantifiable factors and attributes which may ultimately be more relevant to the applicant's success in the position.
99:
were taken to be a precise and objective measure of success. War was reduced to a mathematical model: By increasing estimated enemy deaths and minimizing one's own, victory was assured. Critics such as
Jonathan Salem Baskin and
115:
reportedly told McNamara, who was trying to develop a list of metrics to allow him to scientifically follow the progress of the war, that he was not considering the feelings of the common rural
182:
There has been increasing discussion of the McNamara fallacy in medical literature. In particular, the McNamara fallacy is invoked to describe the inadequacy of only using
777:
782:
369:
119:. McNamara wrote it down on his list in pencil, then erased it and told Lansdale that he could not measure it, so it must not be important.
190:
simply because PFS is an endpoint which is merely measurable, while failing to capture outcomes which are more meaningful, such as overall
342:
1689:
468:
415:
317:
1160:
817:
659:
41:
971:
239:
157:. Rumsfeld was obsessed with achieving positive 'metrics' that could be wielded to demonstrate progress in the
628:
108:, widespread resistance, and inevitable inaccuracies in estimates of enemy casualties can thwart this formula.
1579:
787:
57:
important. The forth step is to say that what can't be easily measured really doesn't exist. This is suicide.
1684:
1615:
1591:
1180:
527:
1192:
936:
1202:
1610:
1167:
1063:
183:
52:) and ignoring all others. The reason given is often that these other observations cannot be proven.
74:
The quote originally referred to McNamara's ideology during the two months that he was president of
1605:
1445:
913:
749:
705:
1625:
1440:
956:
652:
486:
207:
1547:
1537:
1487:
1461:
1237:
1111:
1078:
979:
961:
861:
710:
692:
1585:
1573:
1553:
1542:
1457:
1270:
1246:
1068:
1024:
876:
802:
715:
309:
297:
236: – Tendency for decision-makers to place excessively large emphases on selected metrics
145:, sought to prosecute wars with better data, clear objectives, and achievable goals. Writes
1600:
1504:
1468:
1383:
1339:
1175:
1106:
896:
725:
700:
221:
95:
The McNamara fallacy is often considered in the context of the
Vietnam War, in which enemy
8:
1478:
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1324:
1300:
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49:
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187:
158:
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866:
269:
260: – Psychological phenomenon; replacement of a construct with its measurement
233:
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45:
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20:
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1116:
1042:
682:
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101:
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1000:
944:
812:
807:
541:
522:
327:
1427:
846:
601:
550:
154:
146:
637:
254: – Observational bias from only searching where it is easiest to look
1620:
1397:
1334:
257:
79:
1530:
1524:
1451:
1363:
308:. Harper torchbooks (first ed.). New York: HarperCollins. p.
96:
499:
78:, but has since been interpreted to refer to his attitudes during the
1637:
1421:
1405:
1088:
1567:
1515:
195:
186:(PFS) as a primary endpoint in clinical trials for agents treating
669:
438:
484:
Basler, Michael H. (2009). "Utility of the McNamara fallacy".
523:"Progression-Free Survival: Meaningful or Simply Measurable?"
434:
McNamara's Folly: The Use of Low-IQ Troops in the
Vietnam War
263:
122:
McNamara's interest in quantitative figures is also seen in
304:
Historians' fallacies: toward a logic of historical thought
521:
Booth, Christopher M.; Eisenhauer, Elizabeth A. (2012).
201:
566:"On residency selection and the quantitative fallacy"
387:
370:"According To U.S. Big Data, We Won The Vietnam War"
16:
Erroneous reasoning based solely on numeric metrics
463:(1st ed.). New York: Doubleday. p. 246.
301:
1676:
520:
461:Where Men Win Glory: The Odyssey of Pat Tillman
248: – Philosophical problem-solving principle
778:Affirmative conclusion from a negative premise
48:based solely on quantitative observations (or
783:Negative conclusion from affirmative premises
653:
266: – Being in accord with fact or reality
177:
667:
340:
660:
646:
1361:
591:
581:
540:
341:Yankelovich, Daniel (November 15, 1971).
1514:
458:
405:
368:Baskin, Jonathan Salem (July 25, 2014).
347:Sales Management, the Marketing Magazine
230: – Adage about statistical measures
563:
430:
296:
133:
1677:
618:
483:
424:
393:
367:
85:
65:, "Interpreting the New Life Styles",
641:
570:Journal of Graduate Medical Education
431:Gregory, Hamilton (April 29, 2016).
202:In competitive admissions processes
13:
343:"Interpreting the New Life Styles"
14:
1701:
1659:
1658:
141:, US Secretary of Defense under
612:
557:
111:US Air Force Brigadier General
1156:Correlation implies causation
514:
477:
452:
399:
361:
334:
290:
278: – Resemblance to reality
272: – Philosophical doctrine
90:
1:
1690:Metaphors referring to people
283:
528:Journal of Clinical Oncology
240:Newton's flaming laser sword
44:from 1961 to 1968, involves
7:
242:– Verificationist principle
214:
10:
1706:
1580:I'm entitled to my opinion
18:
1654:
1563:
1502:
1436:
1352:
1261:
1236:
1211:
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1087:
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970:
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839:
830:
768:
734:
690:
681:
583:10.4300/JGME-D-19-00453.1
410:. Naval Institute Press.
224: – Allegory by Plato
184:progression-free survival
178:In modern clinical trials
1606:Motte-and-bailey fallacy
706:Affirming the consequent
619:Karnow, Stanley (1983).
542:10.1200/JCO.2011.38.7571
406:Phillips, Rufus (2008).
19:Not to be confused with
1626:Two wrongs make a right
957:Denying the correlative
188:metastatic solid tumors
42:US Secretary of Defense
1611:Psychologist's fallacy
1548:Argument to moderation
1538:Argument from anecdote
1488:Chronological snobbery
1112:Quoting out of context
1079:Overwhelming exception
962:Suppressed correlative
862:Quoting out of context
737:quantificational logic
711:Denying the antecedent
459:Krakauer, Jon (2009).
349:. Dartnell Corporation
208:competitive admissions
175:
72:
1574:The Four Great Errors
1554:Argumentum ad populum
1543:Argument from silence
1247:Argumentum ad baculum
1025:Faulty generalization
716:Argument from fallacy
151:
54:
1592:Invincible ignorance
1398:Reductio ad Stalinum
1384:Reductio ad Hitlerum
1340:Wisdom of repugnance
1107:Moving the goalposts
972:Illicit transference
897:Begging the question
818:Undistributed middle
726:Mathematical fallacy
701:Affirming a disjunct
623:. New York: Viking.
564:Carmody, JB (2019).
222:Allegory of the cave
159:Global War on Terror
134:Global war on terror
34:quantitative fallacy
1685:Inductive fallacies
1325:Parade of horribles
1301:In-group favoritism
1127:Syntactic ambiguity
770:Syllogistic fallacy
693:propositional logic
408:Why Vietnam Matters
169:Where Men Win Glory
86:Examples in warfare
32:(also known as the
1411:Poisoning the well
1228:Proof by assertion
1203:Texas sharpshooter
1137:Questionable cause
1074:Slothful induction
1033:Anecdotal evidence
893:Circular reasoning
788:Exclusive premises
750:Illicit conversion
252:Streetlight effect
76:Ford Motor Company
63:Daniel Yankelovich
1672:
1671:
1650:
1649:
1646:
1645:
1586:Ignoratio elenchi
1498:
1497:
1348:
1347:
1310:Not invented here
1015:Converse accident
937:Correlative-based
914:Compound question
857:False attribution
852:False equivalence
826:
825:
621:Vietnam A History
535:(10): 1030–1033.
500:10.1136/bmj.b3141
470:978-0-385-52226-7
417:978-1-682-47310-8
319:978-0-06-131545-9
117:Vietnamese people
106:guerrilla warfare
46:making a decision
1697:
1662:
1661:
1633:Special pleading
1512:
1511:
1373:Appeal to motive
1359:
1358:
1335:Stirring symbols
1315:Island mentality
1253:Wishful thinking
1234:
1233:
950:Perfect solution
927:No true Scotsman
922:Complex question
907:Leading question
886:Question-begging
872:No true Scotsman
837:
836:
760:Quantifier shift
755:Proof by example
688:
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128:McNamara's Folly
70:
67:Sales Management
30:McNamara fallacy
21:McNamara's folly
1705:
1704:
1700:
1699:
1698:
1696:
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1675:
1674:
1673:
1668:
1642:
1616:Rationalization
1559:
1506:
1494:
1432:
1354:Genetic fallacy
1344:
1257:
1232:
1207:
1131:
1122:Sorites paradox
1102:False precision
1083:
1064:Double counting
1019:
994:
966:
931:
918:Loaded question
902:Loaded language
881:
822:
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730:
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295:
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270:Verificationism
234:Metric fixation
217:
204:
192:quality of life
180:
174:
165:
139:Donald Rumsfeld
136:
124:Project 100,000
113:Edward Lansdale
93:
88:
71:
61:
38:Robert McNamara
24:
17:
12:
11:
5:
1703:
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1471:
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1455:
1448:
1446:Accomplishment
1437:
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1200:
1198:Slippery slope
1195:
1190:
1185:
1184:
1183:
1173:
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1164:
1154:
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1152:
1141:
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1129:
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1119:
1117:Slippery slope
1114:
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1104:
1099:
1093:
1091:
1085:
1084:
1082:
1081:
1076:
1071:
1066:
1061:
1052:
1051:
1050:
1045:
1043:Cherry picking
1035:
1029:
1027:
1021:
1020:
1018:
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993:
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987:
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723:
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629:
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611:
608:
607:
576:(4): 420–421.
556:
513:
476:
469:
451:
423:
416:
398:
396:, p. 253.
386:
360:
333:
318:
298:Fischer, D. H.
288:
287:
285:
282:
280:
279:
276:Verisimilitude
273:
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255:
249:
243:
237:
231:
228:Goodhart's law
225:
218:
216:
213:
203:
200:
179:
176:
166:Jon Krakauer,
163:
143:George W. Bush
135:
132:
102:Stanley Karnow
92:
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84:
59:
15:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
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1489:
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1355:
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1333:
1331:
1328:
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1323:
1321:
1318:
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1313:
1311:
1307:
1306:Invented here
1304:
1302:
1299:
1297:
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1289:
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1210:
1204:
1201:
1199:
1196:
1194:
1191:
1189:
1186:
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1179:
1178:
1177:
1174:
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1169:
1165:
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1158:
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1155:
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1128:
1125:
1123:
1120:
1118:
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1113:
1110:
1108:
1105:
1103:
1100:
1098:
1095:
1094:
1092:
1090:
1086:
1080:
1077:
1075:
1072:
1070:
1069:False analogy
1067:
1065:
1062:
1060:
1056:
1053:
1049:
1046:
1044:
1041:
1040:
1039:
1038:Sampling bias
1036:
1034:
1031:
1030:
1028:
1026:
1022:
1016:
1013:
1011:
1008:
1007:
1005:
1003:
1002:
1001:Secundum quid
997:
991:
988:
986:
983:
981:
978:
977:
975:
973:
969:
963:
960:
958:
955:
951:
948:
947:
946:
945:False dilemma
943:
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928:
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923:
919:
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908:
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855:
853:
850:
848:
845:
844:
842:
838:
835:
833:
829:
819:
816:
814:
813:Illicit minor
811:
809:
808:Illicit major
806:
804:
801:
799:
796:
794:
791:
789:
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781:
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560:
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529:
524:
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466:
462:
455:
444:September 25,
440:
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375:
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300:(June 1970).
299:
293:
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253:
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247:
246:Occam's razor
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1238:Consequences
1219:Law/Legality
1193:Single cause
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847:Equivocation
840:Equivocation
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1378:Association
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877:Reification
793:Existential
745:Existential
394:Karnow 1983
258:Surrogation
194:or overall
104:noted that
97:body counts
91:Vietnam War
80:Vietnam War
1679:Categories
1597:Moralistic
1531:Sealioning
1525:Ad nauseam
1452:Ipse dixit
1364:Ad hominem
1188:Regression
990:Ecological
803:Four terms
721:Masked man
630:0140265473
284:References
1638:Straw man
1516:Arguments
1505:fallacies
1479:Tradition
1469:Etymology
1441:Authority
1422:Tu quoque
1406:Bulverism
1176:Gambler's
1145:Animistic
1089:Ambiguity
1055:Base rate
798:Necessity
670:fallacies
494:: b3141.
379:April 12,
353:March 11,
328:185446787
1664:Category
1296:Ridicule
1281:Flattery
1271:Children
1168:Post hoc
1048:McNamara
1010:Accident
985:Division
832:Informal
602:31440336
551:22370321
508:71916631
215:See also
196:survival
164:—
60:—
1483:Novelty
1458:Poverty
1320:Loyalty
1286:Novelty
1263:Emotion
1212:Appeals
1181:Inverse
1161:Cum hoc
1150:Furtive
668:Common
593:6699544
439:YouTube
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1568:Cliché
1503:Other
1474:Nature
1462:Wealth
1097:Accent
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1330:Spite
1224:Stone
504:S2CID
264:Truth
1416:Tone
1291:Pity
1276:Fear
674:list
625:ISBN
598:PMID
547:PMID
465:ISBN
446:2019
412:ISBN
381:2023
355:2023
324:OCLC
314:ISBN
126:aka
28:The
735:In
691:In
588:PMC
578:doi
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