3341:. Syndor (2010) suggests that the probability weighting aspect of prospect theory aims to explain the behaviour of the consumers who choose a higher premium for a reduced deductible even when the annualised claim rate is very low (approximately 5%). In a study of 50,000 customers, they had four options for the deductibles on their policy; $ 100, $ 250, $ 500, $ 1000. From this it was found that a $ 500 deductible resulted in a $ 715 annual premium and $ 1000 deductible being $ 615. The customers that chose the $ 500 deductible were paying an additional $ 100 per year even though the chance that a claim will be made is extremely low, and the deductible be paid. Under the expected utility framework, this can only be realised through high levels of risk aversion. Households place a greater weight on the probability that a claim will be made when choosing a policy, thus it is suggested that the reference point of the household significantly influences the decisions when it comes to premiums and deductibles. This is consistent with the theory that people assign excessive weight to scenarios with low probabilities and insufficient weight to events with high probability.
3297:(IR). But prospect theory, unlike the alternative models, (1) is "founded on empirical data", (2) allows and accounts for dynamic change, (3) addresses previously-ignored modular elements, (4) emphasizes the situation in the decision-making process, (5) "provides a micro-foundational basis for the explanation of larger phenomena", and (6) stresses the importance of loss in utility and value calculations. Moreover, again unlike other models, prospect theory "asks different sorts of questions, seeks different evidence, and reaches different conclusions." However, there exist shortcomings inherent in prospect theory's political application, such as the dilemma regarding an actor's perceived position on the gain-loss domain spectrum, and the discordance between ideological and pragmatic (i.e. 'in the lab' versus 'in the field') assessments of an actor's propensity toward seeking or avoiding risk.
3273:
attempting to explain consumer behavior during auctions, out-of-sample predictions were shown to be more accurate than a corresponding expected utility model. Specifically, prospect theory was boiled down to certain elements: preference, loss aversion and probability weighting. These elements were then used to find a backward solution on 537,045 auctions. The greater accuracy may be explained by the new model having the ability to correct for two behavioral irrationalities: The sunk cost fallacy and average auctioneer revenues above current retail price. These findings would also imply that the using prospect theory as a descriptive theory of decision making under risk is also accurate in situations where risk arises through the interactions of different people.
3077:
person is not concerned enough with the outcome of the probability). The exact point in which probability goes from over-weighted to under-weighted is arbitrary, but a good point to consider is probability = 0.33. A person values probability = 0.01 much more than the value of probability = 0 (probability = 0.01 is said to be over-weighted). However, a person has about the same value for probability = 0.4 and probability = 0.5. Also, the value of probability = 0.99 is much less than the value of probability = 1, a sure thing (probability = 0.99 is under-weighted). A little more in depth when looking at probability distortion is that
22:
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riding by others. In Chile, this process led domestic interest groups to form unlikely political coalitions. Zeynep Somer-Topcu's research suggests that political parties respond more strongly to electoral defeat than to success in the next election cycle. As prospect theory predicts, parties are more likely to shift their policies in response to a vote loss in the previous election cycle compared to a vote gain. Lawrence Kuznar and James Lutz find that loss frames can increase support of individuals for terrorist groups.
3325:
decisions to explore the role of framing effects in choice selection. For example, Rose McDermott applied prospect theory to a series of case studies in
American foreign policy, including the Suez Crisis in 1956, the U-2 Crisis in 1960, the U.S. decision to admit the Iranian shah to the United States in 1979, and the U.S. decision to carry out a hostage rescue mission in 1980. Jeffrey Berejikian employed prospect theory to analyze the genesis of the Montreal Protocol, a landmark environmental agreement.
3384:, has been suggested as an alternative model. While it can predict the majority choice in all (one-stage) gambles in Kahneman and Tversky (1979), and predicts the majority choice better than cumulative prospect theory across four different data sets with a total of 260 problems, this heuristic, however, fails to predict many simple decision situations that are typically not tested in experiments and it also does not explain heterogeneity between subjects.
3301:
it as the former puts the citizenry in a "domain of gain," which is thereby conducive to greater populace satisfaction. On a broader scale: Consider an administration debating the implementation of a controversial reform, and that such a reform yields a small chance for a widespread revolt. "he disutility induced by loss aversion," even with minute probabilities of said insurrection, will dissuade the government from moving forward with the reform.
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define what a “gain” and a “loss” actually is. Kőszegi and Rabin (2007) present the idea of a personal equilibrium in decision making. This is essentially the premise that expectations and context have a large impact on determining the reference point and therefore the perception of “gains” and “losses”. Considering personal equilibrium and choice with risk creates even more ambiguity about the perception of what the reference point may be.
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to be risky gambits initiated by politically vulnerable regimes. He suggests that in Latin
America, politically weakened governments were more likely to implement fundamental and economically painful market-oriented reforms, even though they were more vulnerable to political backlash. Barbara Vis and Kees van Kersbergen have reached a similar conclusion in their investigation of Italian welfare reforms.
136:, where the observation is that agents asymmetrically feel losses greater than that of an equivalent gain. It centralises around the idea that people conclude their utility from "gains" and "losses" relative to a certain reference point. This "reference point" is different for each person and relative to their individual situation. Thus, rather than making decisions like a rational agent (i.e using
3115:
3353:. That is, prospect A might be preferred to prospect B even if the probability of receiving a value x or greater is at least as high under prospect B as it is under prospect A for all values of x, and is greater for some value of x. Later theoretical improvements overcame this problem, but at the cost of introducing
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Scholars have employed prospect theory to shed light on a number of issue areas in politics. For example, Kurt
Weyland finds that political leaders do not always undertake bold and politically risky domestic initiatives when they are at the pinnacle of their power. Instead, such policies often appear
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an outcome or transaction in their mind affects the utility they expect or receive. Narrow framing is a derivative result which has been documented in experimental settings by
Tversky and Kahneman, whereby people evaluate new gambles in isolation, ignoring other relevant risks. This phenomenon can be
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Myopic loss aversion (MLA) stems from prospect theory. MLA refers to the propensity for people to focus on short-term losses and gains and to weigh them more heavily than long-term losses and gains. This bias causes people to make worse decisions due to the prioritization of avoiding immediate losses
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Some critics have charged that while prospect theory seeks to predict what people choose, it does not adequately describe the actual process of decision-making. For example, Nathan Berg and Gerd
Gigerenzer claim that neither classical economics nor prospect theory provide a convincing explanation of
3308:
Maria Fanis uses prospect theory to show how risk acceptance can help domestic groups overcome collective action problems inherent to coalition building. She suggests that collective action is more likely in a perceive domain of loss because individuals become more willing to accept the risk of free
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Moreover, scholars have raised doubts about the degree to which framing effects matter. For instance, John List argues that framing effects diminish in complex decision environments. His experimental evidence suggests that as actors gain experience with the consequences of competitive markets, they
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Early applications of prospect theory in
International Relations emphasized the potential to explain anomalies in foreign policy decision-making that remained difficult to account for on the basis of rational choice theory. They developed detailed qualitative case studies of specific foreign policy
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That said, political scientists have applied prospect theory to a wide range of issues in domestic and comparative politics. For example, they have found that politicians are more likely to phrase a radical economic policy as one ensuring 90% employment rather than 10% unemployment, because framing
3182:
In addition, the study found that participants that were provided with a higher amount of money at the beginning of the study tended to be more risk-averse than those who were given a lower starting amount. This result is consistent with the diminishing sensitivity to changes in wealth predicted by
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The results of the study exhibited that participants were more likely to place a bet when they had just lost money in the previous round, and they were more likely to avoid a bet when they had just won money in the previous round. This behavior is consistent with myopic loss aversion theory, as the
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Probability distortion is that people generally do not look at the value of probability uniformly between 0 and 1. Lower probability is said to be over-weighted (that is, a person is overly concerned with the outcome of the probability) while medium to high probability is under-weighted (that is, a
3019:
Below is an example of the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes. The first item in each quadrant shows an example prospect (e.g. 95% chance to win $ 10,000 is high probability and a gain). The second item in the quadrant shows the focal emotion that the prospect is likely to evoke. The third item
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240:. It also aims to resolve isolation effects stemming from individuals' propensity to often isolate consecutive probabilities instead of treating them together. The editing process can be viewed as composed of coding, combination, segregation, cancellation, simplification and detection of dominance.
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Although
Prospect Theory is a largely celebrated idea in behavioural economics it does have limitations. The reference point has been argued to be difficult to precisely determine in any given context. Many external factors can influence what the reference point is and thus makes it difficult to
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Critics from the field of psychology argued that even if
Prospect Theory arose as a descriptive model, it offers no psychological explanations for the processes stated in it. Furthermore, factors that are equally important to decision making processes have not been included in the model, such as
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Online pay-per bid auction sites are a classic example of decision making under risk. Previous attempts at predicting consumer behavior have shown that utility theory does not sufficiently describe decision making under risk. When prospect theory was added to a previously existing model that was
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Overall, the study by Gneezy and
Potters gives light to the existence of myopic loss aversion, and it specifically exhibits how this bias can result in people making poorer decisions. By analysing how prospect theory and myopic loss aversion influence decision-making, it provides the ability for
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To see how prospect theory can be applied, consider the decision to buy insurance. Assume the probability of the insured risk is 1%, the potential loss is $ 1,000 and the premium is $ 15. If we apply prospect theory, we first need to set a reference point. This could be the current wealth or the
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William
Boettcher integrated elements of prospect theory with psychological research on personality dispositions to construct a “Risk Explanation Framework,” which he used to analyze foreign-policy decision making. He then evaluated the framework against six case studies on presidential foreign
3174:
A prolific study that examined myopic loss aversion was conducted by Gneezy and Potters in 1997. In this study, participants were asked to play a simple betting game in which they could either bet on a coin landing on heads or tails, or they could choose to not bet at all. The participants were
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The reference point in the prospect theory inverse s-shaped graph also could lead to limitations due to it possibly being discontinuous at that point and having a geometric violation. This would lead to limitations in regards to accounting for the zero-outcome effect, the absence of behavioral
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The theory continues with a second concept, based on the observation that people attribute excessive weight to events with low probabilities and insufficient weight to events with high probability. For example, individuals may unconsciously treat an outcome with a probability of 99% as if its
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Steven Kachelmeier and Mohamed Shehata find little support for prospect theory among experimental subjects in China. They do not, however, make a cultural argument against prospect theory. Rather, they conclude that when payoffs are large relative to net wealth, the effect of prospect theory
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seen in practice in the reaction of people to stock market fluctuations in comparison with other aspects of their overall wealth; people are more sensitive to spikes in the stock market as opposed to their labor income or the housing market. It has also been shown that narrow framing causes
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must be linear; however, dominated alternatives are brought to the evaluation phase since they are eliminated in the editing phase. Although direct violations of dominance never happen in prospect theory, it is possible that a prospect A dominates B, B dominates C but C dominates A.
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in 2017, confirmed that prospect theory describes decisions on lotteries well, not only in Western countries, but across many different cultures. The study also found cultural and economic factors influencing systematically average prospect theory parameters.
3321:, policy-makers, when in a perceived domain of loss, are more likely to take risks that would otherwise have been avoided, e.g. "gambling on a risky rescue mission", or implementing radical domestic reform to support military efforts.
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indicates how most people would behave given each of the prospects (either Risk Averse or Risk Seeking). The fourth item states expected attitudes of a potential defendant and plaintiff in discussions of settling a civil suit.
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probability were 95%, and an outcome with probability of 1% as if it had a probability of 5%. Under- and over-weighting of probabilities is importantly distinct from under- and over-estimating probabilities, a different type of
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is a function that assigns a value to an outcome. The value function that passes through the reference point is s-shaped and asymmetrical. Losses hurt more than gains feel good (loss aversion). This differs from
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These two examples are thus in contradiction with the expected utility theory, which only considers choices with the maximum utility. Also, the concavity for gains and convexity for losses implies diminishing
3248:
has brought the implementation of prospect theory in software. Framing and prospect theory has been applied to a diverse range of situations which appear inconsistent with standard economic rationality: the
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Ruggeri, Kai; Alí, Sonia; Berge, Mari Louise; Bertoldo, Giulia; Bjørndal, Ludvig D.; Cortijos-Bernabeu, Anna; Davison, Clair; Demić, Emir; Esteban-Serna, Celia; Friedemann, Maja; Gibson, Shannon P. (2020).
236:. In particular, people decide which outcomes they consider equivalent, set a reference point and then consider lesser outcomes as losses and greater ones as gains. The editing phase aims to alleviate any
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in 2020 replicated research on prospect theory and concluded that it successfully replicated: "We conclude that the empirical foundations for prospect theory replicate beyond any reasonable thresholds."
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with increasing gains/losses. In other words, someone who has more money has a lower desire for a fixed amount of gain (and lower aversion to a fixed amount of loss) than someone who has less money.
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3016:: risk-averse behavior when gains have moderate probabilities or losses have small probabilities; risk-seeking behavior when losses have moderate probabilities or gains have small probabilities.
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Rieger, M. & Wang, M. (2008). What is behind the Priority Heuristic? – A mathematical analysis and comment on Brandstätter, Gigerenzer and Hertwig. Psychological Review, 115, 1, 274–280.
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506:, in which a rational agent is indifferent to the reference point. In expected utility theory, the individual does not care how the outcome of losses and gains are framed. The function
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1304:. The value function is thus defined on deviations from the reference point, generally concave for gains and commonly convex for losses and steeper for losses than for gains. If
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Kachelmeier, Steven J., and Mohamed Shehata (1992). “Examining Risk Preferences under High Monetary Incentives: Experimental Evidence from the People’s Republic of China.”
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conditionality in risky decisions as well as limitations in deriving the curve. A transitionary concave-convex universal system was proposed to eliminate this limitation.
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how people actually make decisions. They go so far as to claim that prospect theory is even more demanding of cognitive resources than classical expected utility theory.
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This means that for a fixed ratio of probabilities the decision weights are closer to unity when probabilities are low than when they are high. In prospect theory,
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Rieger, M. O., Wang, M., & Hens, T. (2017). Estimating cumulative prospect theory parameters from an international survey. Theory and Decision, 82(4), 567-596.
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Barberis, Nicholas; Heung, Ming; Thaler, Richard H. (2006). "Individual preferences, monetary gambles, and stock market participation: a case for narrow framing".
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3009:. In this case, the concavity of the value function in gains and the underweighting of high probabilities can also lead to a preference for buying the insurance.
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International relations theorists have applied prospect theory to a wide range of issues in world politics, especially security-related matters. For example, in
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is a probability weighting function and captures the idea that people tend to overreact to small probability events, but underreact to large probabilities. Let
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Brandstätter, E., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R. (2006). The priority heuristic: Making choices without trade-offs. Psychological Review, 113, 409–432.
70:). For example, for some individuals, the pain from losing $ 1,000 could only be compensated by the pleasure of earning $ 2,000. Thus, contrary to the
3253:, the excess returns puzzle and long swings/PPP puzzle of exchange rates through the endogenous prospect theory of Imperfect Knowledge Economics, the
1989:
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2247:{\displaystyle {\frac {\pi \left(p\right)-\pi (p')}{\pi \left(q'\right)-\pi \left(q\right)}}\leq {\frac {\nu \left(y\right)}{\nu \left(x\right)}}}
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participants were placing greater magnitude on their short-term gains and losses instead of their overall earnings over the course of the study.
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theory. Cumulative prospect theory can also be used for infinitely many or even continuous outcomes (for example, if the outcome can be any
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Agents will choose the 50% chance to lose $ 1100 even though the expected utility is lower, due to the chance that they lose nothing at all
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provided with a particular amount of money to commence the experiment with, and told to maximize their earnings over a series of rounds.
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Kahneman, Daniel, Jack L. Knetsch, and Richard H. Thaler (1991). “Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias.”
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3369:). An alternative solution to overcome these problems within the framework of (classical) prospect theory has been suggested as well.
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2. Enter a lottery with possible outcomes of $ 0 (probability 99%) or −$ 1,000 (probability 1%), which yields a prospect-utility of
1447:
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researchers and policymakers to create interventions that help people make more informed choices and attain their long-term goals.
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95% chance to win $ 10,000 or 100% chance to obtain $ 9,499. So, 95% × $ 10,000 = $ 9,500 > $ 9,499. Fear of disappointment.
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Given the necessary degree of uncertainty for which prospect theory is applied, it should come as no surprise that it and other
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Rieger, M. & Wang, M. (2008). Prospect Theory for continuous distributions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 36, 1, 83–102.
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95% chance to lose $ 10,000 or 100% chance to lose $ 9,499. So, 95% × −$ 10,000 = −$ 9,500 < −$ 9,499. Hope to avoid loss.
251:), based on the potential outcomes and their respective probabilities, and then choose the alternative having a higher utility.
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4253:"Violations at the Reference Point of Discontinuity: Limitations of Prospect Theory and an Alternative Model of Risk Choices"
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The interplay of overweighting of small probabilities and concavity-convexity of the value function leads to the so-called
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1727:{\displaystyle {\frac {\pi \left(pq\right)}{\pi \left(p\right)}}\leq {\frac {\pi \left(pqr\right)}{\pi \left(pr\right)}}}
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Fanis, Maria (2004). “Collective Action Meets Prospect Theory: An Application to Coalition Building in Chile, 1973–75.”
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5% chance to lose $ 10,000 or 100% chance to lose $ 501. So, 5% × −$ 10,000 = −$ 500 > −$ 501. Fear of large loss.
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Quattrone, George A., and Amos Tversky (1988). “Contrasting Rational and Psychological Analyses of Political Choice.”
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3265:. It has also been argued that prospect theory can explain several empirical regularities observed in the context of
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5% chance to win $ 10,000 or 100% chance to obtain $ 501. So, 5% × $ 10,000 = $ 500 < $ 501. Hope of large gain.
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Staddon, John (2017) Scientific Method: How science works, fails to work or pretends to work. Taylor and Francis.
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Dacey, Raymond; Zielonka, Piotr (2013). "High volatility eliminates the disposition effect in a market crisis".
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Somer-Topcu, Zeynep (2009). “Timely Decisions: The Effects of Past National Elections on Party Policy Change.”
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McDermott, Rose (April 2004). "Prospect Theory in Political Science: Gains and Losses from the First Decade".
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Berg, Nathan, and Gerd Gigerenzer (2010). “As-If Behavioral Economics: Neoclassical Economics in Disguise?”
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among stock market investors. And the work of Tversky and Kahneman is largely responsible for the advent of
93:. However, prospect theory can also be applied to the prediction of other forms of behaviors and decisions.
3135:
Includes unnecessary repetition of basic definitions from the beginning of the article. Very few citations.
2913:. That is, a strong overweighting of small probabilities is likely to undo the effect of the convexity of
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The formula that Kahneman and Tversky assume for the evaluation phase is (in its simplest form) given by:
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worst case (losing $ 1,000). If we set the frame to the current wealth, the decision would be to either
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Vis, Barbara, and Kees van Kersbergen (2007). “Why and how do political actors pursue risky reforms?”
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Rosenkranz, Stephanie; Schmitz, Patrick W. (2007). "Reserve Prices in Auctions as Reference Points".
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4941:; Kahneman, Daniel (1992). "Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty".
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For an overview, see Berejikian, Jeffrey D. (2020). “Prospect Theory in International Relations,”
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Agents will choose the certain $ 450 even though the expected utility of the risky gain is higher
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Benartzi, Shlomo; Thaler, Richard (1995). "Myopic loss aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle".
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3269:(such as secret reserve prices) which are difficult to reconcile with standard economic theory.
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https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199743292/obo-9780199743292-0163.xml
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List, John A. (2004). “Neoclassical versus Prospect Theory: Evidence from the Marketplace.”
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The Politics of Market Reform in Fragile Democracies: Argentina, Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela
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128:. The value function is steeper for losses than gains indicating that losses outweigh gains.
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Chadee, Aaron Anil; Chadee, Xsitaaz T.; Chadee, Clyde; Otuloge, Festus (February 1, 2022).
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Risk Taking in International Politics: Prospect Theory in Post-War American Foreign Policy
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is the overall or expected utility of the outcomes to the individual making the decision,
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3910:"Prospect theory in a dynamic game: Theory and evidence from online pay-per-bid auctions"
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An important implication of prospect theory is that the way economic agents subjectively
2588:{\displaystyle \pi (0.01)\times v(-1000)+\pi (0.99)\times v(0)=\pi (0.01)\times v(-1000)}
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Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (1986). "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions".
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Post, Thierry; van den Assem, Martijn J; Baltussen, Guido; Thaler, Richard H (2008).
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and choosing the maximum value), decisions are made in relativity not in absolutes.
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Pesendorfer, Wolfgang. 2006. "Behavioral Economics Comes of Age: A Review Essay on
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Kuznar, Lawrence A., and James M. Lutz (2007). “Risk Sensitivity and Terrorism.”
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Brünner, Tobias; Reiner, Jochen; Natter, Martin; Skiera, Bernd (August 1, 2019).
3554:"The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2002"
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models are applied extensively in the context of political decision-making. Both
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Applications of prospect theory in the context of insurance seek to explain the
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is not immediately evident. However, for typical value and weighting functions,
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behave more like rational actors and the impact of prospect theory diminishes.
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The original version of prospect theory gave rise to violations of first-order
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Nations and Households in Economic Growth: Essays in Honor of Moses Abramovitz
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overcame this problem by using a probability weighting function derived from
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models generate significant predictive power in the analysis of politics and
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The value function that passes through the reference point is s-shaped and
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4799:"Deal or No Deal? Decision Making under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game Show"
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in 1979. The theory was cited in the decision to award Kahneman the 2002
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4203:"Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment"
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in 1944 and constitutes one of the first economic theories built using
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3051:. Rejects favorable settlement, chooses 95% chance to lose $ 10,000
66:
assess their loss and gain perspectives in an asymmetric manner (see
4690:
4309:
Newell, Benjamin, R.; Lagnado, David, A.; Shanks, David, R. (2007).
3806:
3717:"THE FOURFOLD PATTERN OF RISK ATTITUDES IN CHOICE AND PRICING TASKS"
3523:
4922:
79:
3063:. Rejects favorable settlement, chooses 5% chance to win $ 10,000
4378:"Replicating patterns of prospect theory for decision under risk"
3445:
3266:
3044:. Accept unfavorable settlement of 100% chance to obtain $ 9,499
248:
90:
4796:
4559:
Abramovitz, Moses; David, Paul A.; Reder, Melvin Warren (1974).
4189:
Presidential Risk Behavior in Foreign Policy: Prudence or Peril?
164:, preferring the certain outcome with a lower expected utility (
120:
3464:
1757:
3216:), can also be explained by referring to the prospect theory.
2447:
1. Pay $ 15 for insurance, which yields a prospect-utility of
1538:{\displaystyle \pi (p)\nu (x)+\pi (pq)\nu (y)=\pi (pq)\nu (y)}
3070:. Accept unfavorable settlement of 100% chance to lose $ 501
2359:{\displaystyle \pi (p)-\pi (p')\rightarrow \pi (q')-\pi (q)}
232:, outcomes of a decision are ordered according to a certain
178:
When faced with a risky choice leading to losses agents are
4758:"On the Evolutionary Origin of Prospect Theory Preferences"
224:
The theory describes the decision processes in two stages:
158:
When faced with a risky choice leading to gains agents are
2936:
If we set the frame to -$ 1,000, we have a choice between
4756:
McDermott, Rose; Fowler, James H.; Smirnov, Oleg (2008).
4250:
3907:
78:
would make), prospect theory aims to describe the actual
4855:
Shafir, Eldar; LeBoeuf, Robyn A. (2002). "Rationality".
4176:
International Relations under Risk: Framing State Choice
918:{\displaystyle V(x,p;y,q)=\pi (p)\nu (x)+\pi (q)\nu (y)}
4374:
3738:
247:
phase, people behave as if they would compute a value (
4755:
3726:
3387:
An international survey in 53 countries, published in
150:
100% chance to lose $ 500 or 50% chance to lose $ 1100
147:
100% chance to gain $ 450 or 50% chance to gain $ 1000
4662:"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk"
3958:
Vieider, Ferdinand M.; Vis, Barbara (June 25, 2019).
3758:"An Experiment on Risk Taking and Evaluation Periods"
3495:"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk"
2971:
2942:
2919:
2854:
2787:
2735:
2706:
2644:
2636:, because low probabilities are usually overweighted;
2607:
2491:
2453:
2420:
2372:
2288:
2262:
2126:
1992:
1938:
1886:
1829:
1798:
1766:
1742:
1630:
1551:
1450:
1412:
1377:
1342:
1310:
1297:{\displaystyle \nu (-y)+\nu (-x)>\nu (x)+\nu (-x)}
1227:
1147:
1031:
997:
965:
933:
830:
796:
764:
732:
688:
656:
636:
616:
596:
576:
532:
512:
487:
428:
369:
349:
264:
43:, judgment and decision making that was developed by
4558:
1615:{\displaystyle \pi (pr)\nu (x)\leq \pi (pqr)\nu (y)}
1214:{\displaystyle \nu (y)+\nu (-y)>\nu (x)+\nu (-x)}
333:{\displaystyle V=\sum _{i=1}^{n}\pi (p_{i})v(x_{i})}
85:
In the original formulation of the theory, the term
4590:(1997). "The frame of reference as a public good".
4311:
Straight choices: The psychology of decision making
4308:
3842:." Journal of Economic Literature, 44 (3): 712-721.
3580:
2906:{\displaystyle \pi (0.01)\times v(-1000)<v(-15)}
3673:
3671:
3488:
3486:
3380:A relatively simple ad hoc decision strategy, the
3001:
2957:
2925:
2905:
2840:
2773:
2721:
2688:
2628:
2587:
2471:
2426:
2406:
2358:
2274:
2246:
2110:
1978:
1921:
1872:
1815:
1784:
1748:
1726:
1614:
1537:
1436:
1398:
1363:
1328:
1296:
1213:
1131:
1015:
983:
951:
917:
814:
782:
750:
718:
674:
642:
622:
602:
582:
562:
518:
493:
473:
414:
355:
332:
4720:Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky, eds. (2000).
4543:: CS1 maint: DOI inactive as of September 2024 (
3854:
5006:
4937:
4891:
4659:
3960:"Prospect Theory and Political Decision Making"
3914:Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
3677:
3668:
3492:
3483:
3200:Some behaviors observed in economics, like the
2696:, by the convexity of value function in losses.
1141:It can be deduced from the first equation that
1132:{\displaystyle V(x,p;y,q)=\nu (y)+\pi (p)\left}
4894:"Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions"
3782:
1444:, but from the first equation it follows that
4854:
4555:"Does Economic Growth Improve the Human Lot?"
4514:
4178:. Albany: State University of New York Press.
3104:
2841:{\displaystyle \pi (0.01)>v(-15)/v(-1000)}
4493:(4th ed.). Cambridge University Press.
4333:: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (
4083:. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
2933:in losses, making the insurance attractive.
4165:. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
3957:
3660:: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (
3625:
3357:in preferences. A revised version, called
3312:
74:(which models the decision that perfectly
4954:
4912:
4822:
4680:
4603:
4528:
4401:
4268:
4218:
4056:
4004:
3876:
3796:
3691:
3594:
3513:
3158:Learn how and when to remove this message
415:{\displaystyle x_{1},x_{2},\ldots ,x_{n}}
89:referred to the predictable results of a
4892:Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (1986).
4724:. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
4660:Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos (1979).
4628:
4200:
3964:Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics
3732:
3493:Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos (1979).
3344:
3257:, various gambling and betting puzzles,
3002:{\displaystyle \pi (0.99)\times v(1000)}
2689:{\displaystyle v(-15)/v(-1000)>0.015}
474:{\displaystyle p_{1},p_{2},\dots ,p_{n}}
119:
20:
4058:10.1146/annurev.polisci.8.082103.104911
4041:"Prospect Theory and Political Science"
3212:in case of gains or losses (termed the
32:for his work developing prospect theory
5007:
4869:10.1146/annurev.psych.53.100901.135213
4038:
3972:10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.979
3171:instead of achieving long-term gains.
3101:) is probability in prospect theory).
4586:
4483:
4034:
4032:
4030:
4028:
4000:
3998:
3953:
3951:
3850:
3848:
3834:
3832:
3744:
4727:
3714:
3576:
3574:
3108:
3056:Low probability (possibility effect)
726:is a regular prospect (i.e., either
4187:Boettcher, William A. III. (2005).
3037:High probability (certainty effect)
481:their respective probabilities and
13:
4995:An introduction to Prospect Theory
4614:10.1111/j.1468-0297.1997.tb00086.x
4477:
4045:Annual Review of Political Science
4039:Mercer, Jonathan (June 15, 2005).
4025:
3995:
3948:
3845:
3829:
3785:The Quarterly Journal of Economics
3762:The Quarterly Journal of Economics
3632:(Third ed.). Abingdon, Oxon.
3014:fourfold pattern of risk attitudes
2629:{\displaystyle \pi (0.01)>0.01}
14:
5061:
4988:
4849:American Political Science Review
3571:
53:Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics
30:Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics
4715:Journal of Economic Perspectives
4207:Journal of Economic Perspectives
4019:10.1111/j.1467-9221.2004.00372.x
3869:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2007.02044.x
3840:Advances in Behavioral Economics
3113:
4943:Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
4731:The Wars of Louis XIV 1667-1714
4460:
4447:
4434:
4368:
4359:
4350:
4341:
4302:
4293:
4244:
4235:
4194:
4181:
4174:Berejikian, Jeffrey D. (2004).
4168:
4155:
4138:
4125:
4112:
4099:
4094:Journal of Theoretical Politics
4086:
4073:
3901:
3776:
3363:rank-dependent expected utility
3190:
2774:{\displaystyle v(-15)/v(-1000)}
1873:{\displaystyle p+q=p'+q'<1,}
570:denote a prospect with outcome
422:are the potential outcomes and
228:During an initial phase termed
154:Prospect theory suggests that;
96:Prospect theory challenges the
4533:(inactive September 19, 2024).
4313:. New York: Psychology Press.
4201:Barberis, Nicholas C. (2013).
3750:
3708:
3619:
3546:
2996:
2990:
2981:
2975:
2952:
2946:
2900:
2891:
2882:
2873:
2864:
2858:
2835:
2826:
2815:
2806:
2797:
2791:
2768:
2759:
2748:
2739:
2716:
2710:
2677:
2668:
2657:
2648:
2617:
2611:
2598:According to prospect theory,
2582:
2573:
2564:
2558:
2549:
2543:
2534:
2528:
2519:
2510:
2501:
2495:
2466:
2457:
2353:
2347:
2338:
2327:
2321:
2318:
2307:
2298:
2292:
2275:{\displaystyle y\rightarrow x}
2266:
2161:
2150:
2105:
2099:
2093:
2082:
2073:
2067:
2061:
2050:
2041:
2035:
2029:
2023:
2014:
2008:
2002:
1996:
1973:
1939:
1916:
1887:
1609:
1603:
1597:
1585:
1576:
1570:
1564:
1555:
1532:
1526:
1520:
1511:
1502:
1496:
1490:
1481:
1472:
1466:
1460:
1454:
1431:
1413:
1393:
1378:
1358:
1343:
1323:
1311:
1291:
1282:
1273:
1267:
1258:
1249:
1240:
1231:
1208:
1199:
1190:
1184:
1175:
1166:
1157:
1151:
1121:
1115:
1106:
1100:
1089:
1083:
1074:
1068:
1059:
1035:
912:
906:
900:
894:
885:
879:
873:
867:
858:
834:
713:
689:
557:
533:
327:
314:
308:
295:
16:Theory of behavioral economics
1:
4638:. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
4191:New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
3232:, and is used extensively in
815:{\displaystyle x\leq 0\leq y}
783:{\displaystyle x\geq 0\geq y}
650:and nothing with probability
3407:
3332:
3195:
212:observed for example in the
7:
4857:Annual Review of Psychology
4722:Choices, Values, and Frames
3702:10.1007/978-3-642-74919-3_4
3626:Cartwright, Edward (2018).
3428:
3276:
3239:
3133:. The specific problem is:
1979:{\displaystyle (x,p';y,q')}
1785:{\displaystyle x>y>0}
1016:{\displaystyle x<y<0}
984:{\displaystyle x>y>0}
132:Prospect theory stems from
115:
10:
5066:
4270:10.28991/ESJ-2022-06-01-03
3926:10.1016/j.jebo.2019.05.032
3441:Description-experience gap
3359:cumulative prospect theory
3105:Myopic Loss Aversion (MLA)
3093:) < 1 (where
2722:{\displaystyle \pi (0.01)}
2438:
1922:{\displaystyle (x,p';y,q)}
5045:Framing (social sciences)
4774:10.1017/S0022381608080341
4442:History of Economic Ideas
4394:10.1038/s41562-020-0886-x
3259:intertemporal consumption
2407:{\displaystyle p-p'=q'-q}
719:{\displaystyle (x,p;y,q)}
563:{\displaystyle (x,p;y,q)}
5050:1979 in economic history
4803:American Economic Review
4468:American Economic Review
4257:Emerging Science Journal
4161:McDermott, Rose (1998).
3583:American Economic Review
3476:
3329:policy decision-making.
751:{\displaystyle p+q<1}
219:
143:Consider two scenarios;
4901:The Journal of Business
4762:The Journal of Politics
4635:Thinking, Fast and Slow
4530:10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.9
3680:The Journal of Business
3459:Thinking, Fast and Slow
3313:International relations
3295:international relations
2700:The comparison between
1816:{\displaystyle p>p'}
1437:{\displaystyle (y,pqr)}
504:expected utility theory
138:expected utility theory
98:expected utility theory
72:expected utility theory
4728:Lynn, John A. (1999).
4382:Nature Human Behaviour
4079:Weyland, Kurt (2002).
3400:Nature Human Behaviour
3003:
2959:
2958:{\displaystyle v(985)}
2927:
2907:
2842:
2775:
2723:
2690:
2630:
2589:
2473:
2472:{\displaystyle v(-15)}
2428:
2414:, it would imply that
2408:
2360:
2276:
2248:
2112:
1980:
1923:
1874:
1817:
1786:
1750:
1728:
1616:
1539:
1438:
1400:
1399:{\displaystyle (x,pr)}
1365:
1364:{\displaystyle (y,pq)}
1330:
1298:
1215:
1133:
1017:
985:
953:
919:
816:
784:
752:
720:
676:
644:
624:
604:
584:
564:
520:
495:
475:
416:
357:
334:
291:
129:
58:Based on results from
33:
4552:Easterlin, Richard A.
4490:Thinking and Deciding
4146:Oxford Bibliographies
3605:10.1257/aer.96.4.1069
3452:The Paradox of Choice
3397:A study published in
3345:Limits and extensions
3251:equity premium puzzle
3004:
2960:
2928:
2908:
2843:
2776:
2724:
2691:
2631:
2590:
2474:
2429:
2409:
2361:
2277:
2249:
2113:
1981:
1924:
1875:
1818:
1787:
1751:
1729:
1617:
1540:
1439:
1401:
1366:
1331:
1329:{\displaystyle (x,p)}
1299:
1216:
1134:
1018:
986:
954:
952:{\displaystyle p+q=1}
920:
817:
785:
753:
721:
677:
675:{\displaystyle 1-p-q}
645:
625:
605:
585:
565:
521:
496:
476:
417:
358:
335:
271:
214:overconfidence effect
123:
24:
5025:Behavioral economics
4592:The Economic Journal
4220:10.1257/jep.27.1.173
4107:Political Psychology
4007:Political Psychology
3857:The Economic Journal
3629:Behavioral economics
3351:stochastic dominance
3230:behavioral economics
3204:or the reversing of
3140:improve this section
3129:to meet Knowledge's
2969:
2940:
2917:
2852:
2785:
2733:
2704:
2642:
2605:
2489:
2451:
2427:{\displaystyle \pi }
2418:
2370:
2286:
2260:
2124:
1990:
1936:
1884:
1827:
1796:
1764:
1749:{\displaystyle \pi }
1740:
1628:
1549:
1448:
1410:
1406:is not preferred to
1375:
1340:
1308:
1225:
1145:
1029:
995:
963:
931:
828:
794:
762:
730:
686:
654:
634:
614:
594:
574:
530:
519:{\displaystyle \pi }
510:
485:
426:
367:
347:
262:
110:experimental methods
41:behavioral economics
4815:10.1257/aer.98.1.38
4120:Journal of Politics
3747:, pp. 264–266.
3715:Harbaugh, William.
3390:Theory and Decision
1986:, which means that
1760:. In the case that
62:, it describes how
28:, who won the 2002
5040:1979 introductions
5020:Behavioral finance
4965:10.1007/BF00122574
4598:(445): 1832–1847.
4565:. Academic Press.
4470:82 (5): 1120–1141.
4021:– via JSTOR.
3764:. academic.oup.com
3382:priority heuristic
3202:disposition effect
2999:
2955:
2923:
2903:
2838:
2771:
2719:
2686:
2626:
2585:
2469:
2424:
2404:
2356:
2272:
2244:
2108:
1976:
1919:
1870:
1813:
1782:
1746:
1724:
1612:
1535:
1434:
1396:
1361:
1326:
1294:
1211:
1129:
1013:
981:
949:
915:
812:
780:
748:
716:
672:
640:
620:
600:
580:
560:
516:
491:
471:
412:
353:
330:
243:In the subsequent
130:
60:controlled studies
34:
4645:978-1-4299-6935-2
4572:978-0-12-205050-3
4500:978-1-139-46602-8
4133:Political Studies
3639:978-1-138-09712-4
3234:mental accounting
3214:reflection effect
3183:prospect theory.
3168:
3167:
3160:
3131:quality standards
3122:This section may
3074:
3073:
2926:{\displaystyle v}
2242:
2203:
1722:
1670:
1545:, which leads to
1336:is equivalent to
643:{\displaystyle q}
630:with probability
623:{\displaystyle y}
603:{\displaystyle p}
590:with probability
583:{\displaystyle x}
494:{\displaystyle v}
356:{\displaystyle V}
188:value function).
168:value function).
106:Oskar Morgenstern
5057:
5035:Finance theories
4984:
4958:
4934:
4916:
4898:
4888:
4851:82 (3): 719–736.
4844:
4826:
4793:
4752:
4750:
4748:
4710:
4684:
4666:
4656:
4654:
4652:
4630:Kahneman, Daniel
4625:
4607:
4588:Frank, Robert H.
4583:
4581:
4579:
4548:
4542:
4534:
4532:
4511:
4509:
4507:
4471:
4464:
4458:
4457:72 (2): 615–625.
4451:
4445:
4444:18 (1): 133–166.
4438:
4432:
4431:
4405:
4372:
4366:
4363:
4357:
4354:
4348:
4345:
4339:
4338:
4332:
4324:
4306:
4300:
4297:
4291:
4290:
4272:
4248:
4242:
4239:
4233:
4232:
4222:
4198:
4192:
4185:
4179:
4172:
4166:
4159:
4153:
4142:
4136:
4135:55 (2): 341–361.
4129:
4123:
4122:71 (1): 238–248.
4116:
4110:
4109:25 (3): 363–388.
4103:
4097:
4096:19 (2): 153–172.
4090:
4084:
4077:
4071:
4070:
4060:
4036:
4023:
4022:
4002:
3993:
3992:
3990:
3988:
3955:
3946:
3945:
3905:
3899:
3898:
3880:
3863:(520): 637–653.
3852:
3843:
3836:
3827:
3826:
3800:
3780:
3774:
3773:
3771:
3769:
3754:
3748:
3742:
3736:
3730:
3724:
3723:
3721:
3712:
3706:
3705:
3695:
3675:
3666:
3665:
3659:
3651:
3623:
3617:
3616:
3598:
3589:(4): 1069–1090.
3578:
3569:
3568:
3566:
3564:
3550:
3544:
3543:
3517:
3499:
3490:
3339:consumer choices
3291:game theoretical
3263:endowment effect
3163:
3156:
3152:
3149:
3143:
3117:
3116:
3109:
3023:
3022:
3008:
3006:
3005:
3000:
2964:
2962:
2961:
2956:
2932:
2930:
2929:
2924:
2912:
2910:
2909:
2904:
2847:
2845:
2844:
2839:
2822:
2780:
2778:
2777:
2772:
2755:
2728:
2726:
2725:
2720:
2695:
2693:
2692:
2687:
2664:
2635:
2633:
2632:
2627:
2594:
2592:
2591:
2586:
2478:
2476:
2475:
2470:
2433:
2431:
2430:
2425:
2413:
2411:
2410:
2405:
2397:
2386:
2365:
2363:
2362:
2357:
2337:
2317:
2281:
2279:
2278:
2273:
2253:
2251:
2250:
2245:
2243:
2241:
2240:
2225:
2224:
2209:
2204:
2202:
2201:
2184:
2180:
2164:
2160:
2143:
2128:
2117:
2115:
2114:
2109:
2092:
2060:
1985:
1983:
1982:
1977:
1972:
1955:
1928:
1926:
1925:
1920:
1903:
1879:
1877:
1876:
1871:
1860:
1849:
1822:
1820:
1819:
1814:
1812:
1791:
1789:
1788:
1783:
1755:
1753:
1752:
1747:
1733:
1731:
1730:
1725:
1723:
1721:
1720:
1716:
1700:
1699:
1695:
1676:
1671:
1669:
1668:
1653:
1652:
1648:
1632:
1621:
1619:
1618:
1613:
1544:
1542:
1541:
1536:
1443:
1441:
1440:
1435:
1405:
1403:
1402:
1397:
1370:
1368:
1367:
1362:
1335:
1333:
1332:
1327:
1303:
1301:
1300:
1295:
1220:
1218:
1217:
1212:
1138:
1136:
1135:
1130:
1128:
1124:
1022:
1020:
1019:
1014:
990:
988:
987:
982:
958:
956:
955:
950:
924:
922:
921:
916:
821:
819:
818:
813:
789:
787:
786:
781:
757:
755:
754:
749:
725:
723:
722:
717:
681:
679:
678:
673:
649:
647:
646:
641:
629:
627:
626:
621:
609:
607:
606:
601:
589:
587:
586:
581:
569:
567:
566:
561:
525:
523:
522:
517:
500:
498:
497:
492:
480:
478:
477:
472:
470:
469:
451:
450:
438:
437:
421:
419:
418:
413:
411:
410:
392:
391:
379:
378:
362:
360:
359:
354:
339:
337:
336:
331:
326:
325:
307:
306:
290:
285:
202:marginal utility
102:John von Neumann
5065:
5064:
5060:
5059:
5058:
5056:
5055:
5054:
5030:Decision theory
5015:Prospect theory
5005:
5004:
5000:Prospect Theory
4991:
4956:10.1.1.320.8769
4914:10.1.1.463.1334
4896:
4746:
4744:
4742:
4717:5 (1): 193–206.
4691:10.2307/1914185
4682:10.1.1.407.1910
4664:
4650:
4648:
4646:
4605:10.1.1.205.3040
4577:
4575:
4573:
4536:
4535:
4505:
4503:
4501:
4485:Baron, Jonathan
4480:
4478:Further reading
4475:
4474:
4465:
4461:
4452:
4448:
4439:
4435:
4373:
4369:
4364:
4360:
4355:
4351:
4346:
4342:
4326:
4325:
4321:
4307:
4303:
4298:
4294:
4249:
4245:
4240:
4236:
4199:
4195:
4186:
4182:
4173:
4169:
4160:
4156:
4143:
4139:
4130:
4126:
4117:
4113:
4104:
4100:
4091:
4087:
4078:
4074:
4037:
4026:
4003:
3996:
3986:
3984:
3982:
3956:
3949:
3906:
3902:
3853:
3846:
3837:
3830:
3807:10.2307/2118511
3798:10.1.1.353.2566
3781:
3777:
3767:
3765:
3756:
3755:
3751:
3743:
3739:
3731:
3727:
3719:
3713:
3709:
3693:10.1.1.463.1334
3676:
3669:
3653:
3652:
3640:
3624:
3620:
3596:10.1.1.212.4458
3579:
3572:
3562:
3560:
3552:
3551:
3547:
3524:10.2307/1914185
3515:10.1.1.407.1910
3497:
3491:
3484:
3479:
3474:
3436:Decision theory
3431:
3410:
3347:
3335:
3315:
3287:rational choice
3279:
3255:status quo bias
3242:
3198:
3193:
3164:
3153:
3147:
3144:
3137:
3118:
3114:
3107:
3089:(1 −
2970:
2967:
2966:
2941:
2938:
2937:
2918:
2915:
2914:
2853:
2850:
2849:
2818:
2786:
2783:
2782:
2751:
2734:
2731:
2730:
2705:
2702:
2701:
2660:
2643:
2640:
2639:
2606:
2603:
2602:
2490:
2487:
2486:
2452:
2449:
2448:
2441:
2419:
2416:
2415:
2390:
2379:
2371:
2368:
2367:
2330:
2310:
2287:
2284:
2283:
2261:
2258:
2257:
2230:
2226:
2214:
2210:
2208:
2191:
2173:
2169:
2165:
2153:
2133:
2129:
2127:
2125:
2122:
2121:
2085:
2053:
1991:
1988:
1987:
1965:
1948:
1937:
1934:
1933:
1896:
1885:
1882:
1881:
1853:
1842:
1828:
1825:
1824:
1805:
1797:
1794:
1793:
1765:
1762:
1761:
1741:
1738:
1737:
1709:
1705:
1701:
1685:
1681:
1677:
1675:
1658:
1654:
1641:
1637:
1633:
1631:
1629:
1626:
1625:
1550:
1547:
1546:
1449:
1446:
1445:
1411:
1408:
1407:
1376:
1373:
1372:
1341:
1338:
1337:
1309:
1306:
1305:
1226:
1223:
1222:
1146:
1143:
1142:
1096:
1092:
1030:
1027:
1026:
996:
993:
992:
964:
961:
960:
932:
929:
928:
829:
826:
825:
795:
792:
791:
763:
760:
759:
731:
728:
727:
687:
684:
683:
655:
652:
651:
635:
632:
631:
615:
612:
611:
595:
592:
591:
575:
572:
571:
531:
528:
527:
511:
508:
507:
486:
483:
482:
465:
461:
446:
442:
433:
429:
427:
424:
423:
406:
402:
387:
383:
374:
370:
368:
365:
364:
348:
345:
344:
321:
317:
302:
298:
286:
275:
263:
260:
259:
238:framing effects
222:
118:
76:rational agents
45:Daniel Kahneman
39:is a theory of
37:Prospect theory
26:Daniel Kahneman
17:
12:
11:
5:
5063:
5053:
5052:
5047:
5042:
5037:
5032:
5027:
5022:
5017:
5003:
5002:
4997:
4990:
4989:External links
4987:
4986:
4985:
4949:(4): 297–323.
4935:
4923:10.1086/296365
4889:
4863:(1): 491–517.
4852:
4845:
4794:
4768:(2): 335–350.
4753:
4740:
4725:
4718:
4711:
4675:(2): 263–291.
4657:
4644:
4626:
4584:
4571:
4549:
4512:
4499:
4479:
4476:
4473:
4472:
4459:
4446:
4433:
4388:(6): 622–633.
4367:
4358:
4349:
4340:
4320:978-1841695891
4319:
4301:
4292:
4243:
4234:
4213:(1): 173–196.
4193:
4180:
4167:
4154:
4137:
4124:
4111:
4098:
4085:
4072:
4024:
4013:(2): 289–312.
3994:
3980:
3947:
3900:
3844:
3828:
3791:(1): 453–458.
3775:
3749:
3737:
3735:, p. 317.
3725:
3707:
3686:(4): 251–278.
3667:
3638:
3618:
3570:
3558:NobelPrize.org
3545:
3508:(2): 263–291.
3481:
3480:
3478:
3475:
3473:
3472:
3470:Ultimatum game
3467:
3462:
3455:
3448:
3443:
3438:
3432:
3430:
3427:
3409:
3406:
3355:intransitivity
3346:
3343:
3334:
3331:
3314:
3311:
3278:
3275:
3241:
3238:
3197:
3194:
3192:
3189:
3166:
3165:
3121:
3119:
3112:
3106:
3103:
3085:) +
3072:
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3064:
3057:
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3052:
3045:
3038:
3034:
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3027:
2998:
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2239:
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2229:
2223:
2220:
2217:
2213:
2207:
2200:
2197:
2194:
2190:
2187:
2183:
2179:
2176:
2172:
2168:
2163:
2159:
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2107:
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2043:
2040:
2037:
2034:
2031:
2028:
2025:
2022:
2019:
2016:
2013:
2010:
2007:
2004:
2001:
1998:
1995:
1975:
1971:
1968:
1964:
1961:
1958:
1954:
1951:
1947:
1944:
1941:
1918:
1915:
1912:
1909:
1906:
1902:
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1889:
1869:
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1177:
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1127:
1123:
1120:
1117:
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1111:
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1049:
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1037:
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977:
974:
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968:
948:
945:
942:
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936:
914:
911:
908:
905:
902:
899:
896:
893:
890:
887:
884:
881:
878:
875:
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869:
866:
863:
860:
857:
854:
851:
848:
845:
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839:
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833:
811:
808:
805:
802:
799:
779:
776:
773:
770:
767:
747:
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741:
738:
735:
715:
712:
709:
706:
703:
700:
697:
694:
691:
671:
668:
665:
662:
659:
639:
619:
599:
579:
559:
556:
553:
550:
547:
544:
541:
538:
535:
515:
490:
468:
464:
460:
457:
454:
449:
445:
441:
436:
432:
409:
405:
401:
398:
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390:
386:
382:
377:
373:
352:
341:
340:
329:
324:
320:
316:
313:
310:
305:
301:
297:
294:
289:
284:
281:
278:
274:
270:
267:
253:
252:
241:
221:
218:
210:cognitive bias
197:
196:
195:
194:
176:
175:
174:
152:
151:
148:
117:
114:
15:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
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5028:
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5018:
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5012:
5010:
5001:
4998:
4996:
4993:
4992:
4982:
4978:
4974:
4970:
4966:
4962:
4957:
4952:
4948:
4944:
4940:
4939:Tversky, Amos
4936:
4932:
4928:
4924:
4920:
4915:
4910:
4906:
4902:
4895:
4890:
4886:
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4800:
4795:
4791:
4787:
4783:
4779:
4775:
4771:
4767:
4763:
4759:
4754:
4743:
4741:9780582056299
4737:
4734:. Routledge.
4733:
4732:
4726:
4723:
4719:
4716:
4712:
4708:
4704:
4700:
4696:
4692:
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4647:
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4409:
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4379:
4371:
4362:
4353:
4344:
4336:
4330:
4322:
4316:
4312:
4305:
4296:
4288:
4284:
4280:
4276:
4271:
4266:
4262:
4258:
4254:
4247:
4238:
4230:
4226:
4221:
4216:
4212:
4208:
4204:
4197:
4190:
4184:
4177:
4171:
4164:
4158:
4151:
4147:
4141:
4134:
4128:
4121:
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4108:
4102:
4095:
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4082:
4076:
4068:
4064:
4059:
4054:
4050:
4046:
4042:
4035:
4033:
4031:
4029:
4020:
4016:
4012:
4008:
4001:
3999:
3983:
3981:9780190228637
3977:
3973:
3969:
3965:
3961:
3954:
3952:
3943:
3939:
3935:
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3927:
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3919:
3915:
3911:
3904:
3896:
3892:
3888:
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3833:
3824:
3820:
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3812:
3808:
3804:
3799:
3794:
3790:
3786:
3779:
3763:
3759:
3753:
3746:
3741:
3734:
3733:Kahneman 2011
3729:
3718:
3711:
3703:
3699:
3694:
3689:
3685:
3681:
3674:
3672:
3663:
3657:
3649:
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3641:
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3614:
3610:
3606:
3602:
3597:
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3555:
3549:
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3529:
3525:
3521:
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3463:
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3444:
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3439:
3437:
3434:
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3422:
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3405:
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3401:
3395:
3392:
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3360:
3356:
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3340:
3330:
3326:
3322:
3320:
3310:
3306:
3302:
3298:
3296:
3292:
3288:
3284:
3283:psychological
3274:
3270:
3268:
3264:
3260:
3256:
3252:
3247:
3237:
3235:
3231:
3227:
3226:loss aversion
3222:
3217:
3215:
3211:
3207:
3206:risk aversion
3203:
3188:
3184:
3180:
3176:
3172:
3162:
3159:
3151:
3141:
3136:
3132:
3128:
3127:
3120:
3111:
3110:
3102:
3100:
3096:
3092:
3088:
3084:
3080:
3069:
3065:
3062:
3058:
3055:
3054:
3050:
3046:
3043:
3039:
3036:
3035:
3031:
3028:
3025:
3024:
3021:
3017:
3015:
3010:
2993:
2987:
2984:
2978:
2972:
2949:
2943:
2934:
2920:
2897:
2894:
2888:
2885:
2879:
2876:
2870:
2867:
2861:
2855:
2832:
2829:
2823:
2819:
2812:
2809:
2803:
2800:
2794:
2788:
2765:
2762:
2756:
2752:
2745:
2742:
2736:
2713:
2707:
2683:
2680:
2674:
2671:
2665:
2661:
2654:
2651:
2645:
2638:
2623:
2620:
2614:
2608:
2601:
2600:
2599:
2596:
2579:
2576:
2570:
2567:
2561:
2555:
2552:
2546:
2540:
2537:
2531:
2525:
2522:
2516:
2513:
2507:
2504:
2498:
2492:
2483:
2480:
2463:
2460:
2454:
2445:
2436:
2421:
2401:
2398:
2394:
2391:
2387:
2383:
2380:
2376:
2373:
2350:
2344:
2341:
2334:
2331:
2324:
2314:
2311:
2304:
2301:
2295:
2289:
2269:
2263:
2254:
2237:
2234:
2231:
2227:
2221:
2218:
2215:
2211:
2205:
2198:
2195:
2192:
2188:
2185:
2181:
2177:
2174:
2170:
2166:
2157:
2154:
2147:
2144:
2140:
2137:
2134:
2130:
2119:
2118:, therefore:
2102:
2096:
2089:
2086:
2079:
2076:
2070:
2064:
2057:
2054:
2047:
2044:
2038:
2032:
2026:
2020:
2017:
2011:
2005:
1999:
1993:
1969:
1966:
1962:
1959:
1956:
1952:
1949:
1945:
1942:
1931:
1913:
1910:
1907:
1904:
1900:
1897:
1893:
1890:
1867:
1864:
1861:
1857:
1854:
1850:
1846:
1843:
1839:
1836:
1833:
1830:
1809:
1806:
1802:
1799:
1779:
1776:
1773:
1770:
1767:
1759:
1743:
1734:
1717:
1713:
1710:
1706:
1702:
1696:
1692:
1689:
1686:
1682:
1678:
1672:
1665:
1662:
1659:
1655:
1649:
1645:
1642:
1638:
1634:
1623:
1622:, therefore:
1606:
1600:
1594:
1591:
1588:
1582:
1579:
1573:
1567:
1561:
1558:
1552:
1529:
1523:
1517:
1514:
1508:
1505:
1499:
1493:
1487:
1484:
1478:
1475:
1469:
1463:
1457:
1451:
1428:
1425:
1422:
1419:
1416:
1390:
1387:
1384:
1381:
1355:
1352:
1349:
1346:
1320:
1317:
1314:
1288:
1285:
1279:
1276:
1270:
1264:
1261:
1255:
1252:
1246:
1243:
1237:
1234:
1228:
1205:
1202:
1196:
1193:
1187:
1181:
1178:
1172:
1169:
1163:
1160:
1154:
1148:
1139:
1125:
1118:
1112:
1109:
1103:
1097:
1093:
1086:
1080:
1077:
1071:
1065:
1062:
1056:
1053:
1050:
1047:
1044:
1041:
1038:
1032:
1024:
1010:
1007:
1004:
1001:
998:
978:
975:
972:
969:
966:
946:
943:
940:
937:
934:
925:
909:
903:
897:
891:
888:
882:
876:
870:
864:
861:
855:
852:
849:
846:
843:
840:
837:
831:
823:
809:
806:
803:
800:
797:
777:
774:
771:
768:
765:
745:
742:
739:
736:
733:
710:
707:
704:
701:
698:
695:
692:
669:
666:
663:
660:
657:
637:
617:
597:
577:
554:
551:
548:
545:
542:
539:
536:
513:
505:
488:
466:
462:
458:
455:
452:
447:
443:
439:
434:
430:
407:
403:
399:
396:
393:
388:
384:
380:
375:
371:
350:
322:
318:
311:
303:
299:
292:
287:
282:
279:
276:
272:
268:
265:
258:
257:
256:
250:
246:
242:
239:
235:
231:
227:
226:
225:
217:
215:
211:
205:
203:
193:
190:
189:
187:
183:
182:
177:
173:
170:
169:
167:
163:
162:
157:
156:
155:
149:
146:
145:
144:
141:
139:
135:
134:loss aversion
127:
122:
113:
111:
107:
103:
100:developed by
99:
94:
92:
88:
83:
81:
77:
73:
69:
68:loss aversion
65:
61:
56:
54:
50:
46:
42:
38:
31:
27:
23:
19:
4946:
4942:
4907:(S4): S251.
4904:
4900:
4860:
4856:
4848:
4809:(1): 38–71.
4806:
4802:
4765:
4761:
4745:. Retrieved
4730:
4721:
4714:
4672:
4669:Econometrica
4668:
4649:. Retrieved
4634:
4595:
4591:
4576:. Retrieved
4561:
4539:cite journal
4523:(20): 5–20.
4520:
4516:
4504:. Retrieved
4489:
4467:
4462:
4455:Econometrica
4454:
4449:
4441:
4436:
4385:
4381:
4370:
4361:
4352:
4343:
4310:
4304:
4295:
4263:(1): 37–52.
4260:
4256:
4246:
4237:
4210:
4206:
4196:
4188:
4183:
4175:
4170:
4162:
4157:
4145:
4140:
4132:
4127:
4119:
4114:
4106:
4101:
4093:
4088:
4080:
4075:
4048:
4044:
4010:
4006:
3985:. Retrieved
3963:
3917:
3913:
3903:
3860:
3856:
3839:
3788:
3784:
3778:
3766:. Retrieved
3761:
3752:
3740:
3728:
3710:
3683:
3679:
3628:
3621:
3586:
3582:
3561:. Retrieved
3557:
3548:
3505:
3502:Econometrica
3501:
3457:
3450:
3425:diminishes.
3423:
3419:
3415:
3411:
3398:
3396:
3388:
3386:
3379:
3375:
3371:
3348:
3336:
3327:
3323:
3316:
3307:
3303:
3299:
3280:
3271:
3243:
3218:
3213:
3210:risk seeking
3199:
3191:Applications
3185:
3181:
3177:
3173:
3169:
3154:
3145:
3138:Please help
3134:
3123:
3098:
3094:
3090:
3086:
3082:
3078:
3075:
3067:
3061:Risk seeking
3060:
3049:Risk seeking
3048:
3041:
3018:
3013:
3011:
2935:
2848:, and hence
2699:
2597:
2484:
2481:
2446:
2442:
2366:, but since
2255:
2120:
1735:
1624:
1140:
1025:
927:However, if
926:
824:
610:and outcome
342:
254:
244:
229:
223:
206:
198:
191:
181:risk seeking
180:
171:
160:
153:
142:
131:
126:asymmetrical
95:
86:
84:
57:
49:Amos Tversky
36:
35:
18:
4824:10419/86601
4051:(1): 1–21.
3920:: 215–234.
3367:real number
3246:digital age
3142:if you can.
3068:Risk averse
3042:Risk averse
959:and either
161:risk averse
82:of people.
64:individuals
5009:Categories
4403:10641/2613
3878:1874/14990
3745:Baron 2006
3648:1001251180
3563:August 12,
3261:, and the
245:evaluation
4973:0895-5646
4951:CiteSeerX
4909:CiteSeerX
4877:0066-4308
4833:0002-8282
4782:0022-3816
4747:March 10,
4699:0012-9682
4677:CiteSeerX
4651:March 10,
4622:0013-0133
4600:CiteSeerX
4578:March 10,
4506:March 10,
4428:218682847
4412:2397-3374
4329:cite book
4287:245640686
4279:2610-9182
4229:0895-3309
4067:1094-2939
3942:197830487
3934:0167-2681
3895:154566025
3887:1468-0297
3793:CiteSeerX
3768:March 18,
3688:CiteSeerX
3656:cite book
3591:CiteSeerX
3532:0012-9682
3510:CiteSeerX
3408:Critiques
3377:emotion.
3333:Insurance
3196:Economics
3148:July 2023
2985:×
2973:π
2895:−
2877:−
2868:×
2856:π
2830:−
2810:−
2789:π
2763:−
2743:−
2708:π
2672:−
2652:−
2609:π
2577:−
2568:×
2556:π
2538:×
2526:π
2514:−
2505:×
2493:π
2461:−
2422:π
2399:−
2377:−
2345:π
2342:−
2325:π
2322:→
2305:π
2302:−
2290:π
2267:→
2228:ν
2212:ν
2206:≤
2189:π
2186:−
2167:π
2148:π
2145:−
2131:π
2097:ν
2080:π
2065:ν
2048:π
2033:ν
2021:π
2006:ν
1994:π
1932:prospect
1930:dominates
1880:prospect
1756:is never
1744:π
1703:π
1679:π
1673:≤
1656:π
1635:π
1601:ν
1583:π
1580:≤
1568:ν
1553:π
1524:ν
1509:π
1494:ν
1479:π
1464:ν
1452:π
1286:−
1280:ν
1265:ν
1253:−
1247:ν
1235:−
1229:ν
1203:−
1197:ν
1182:ν
1170:−
1164:ν
1149:ν
1113:ν
1110:−
1098:ν
1081:π
1066:ν
904:ν
892:π
877:ν
865:π
822:), then:
807:≤
801:≤
775:≥
769:≥
667:−
661:−
514:π
456:…
397:…
293:π
273:∑
234:heuristic
4885:11752494
4841:12816022
4632:(2011).
4487:(2006).
4420:32424259
3987:June 21,
3823:55030273
3613:16524520
3429:See also
3319:war-time
3277:Politics
3267:auctions
3240:Software
3124:require
2395:′
2384:′
2335:′
2315:′
2178:′
2158:′
2090:′
2058:′
1970:′
1953:′
1901:′
1858:′
1847:′
1810:′
1023:, then:
116:Overview
87:prospect
80:behavior
4981:8456150
4931:2817965
4790:1788641
4707:1914185
4517:Decyzje
3815:2118511
3540:1914185
3446:Minimax
3126:cleanup
3032:Losses
3026:Example
2439:Example
249:utility
230:editing
166:concave
91:lottery
4979:
4971:
4953:
4929:
4911:
4883:
4875:
4839:
4831:
4788:
4780:
4738:
4705:
4697:
4679:
4642:
4620:
4602:
4569:
4497:
4426:
4418:
4410:
4317:
4285:
4277:
4227:
4065:
3978:
3940:
3932:
3893:
3885:
3821:
3813:
3795:
3690:
3646:
3636:
3611:
3593:
3538:
3530:
3512:
3465:TOTREP
1758:linear
758:, or
343:where
186:convex
4977:S2CID
4927:S2CID
4897:(PDF)
4837:S2CID
4786:S2CID
4703:JSTOR
4665:(PDF)
4557:, in
4424:S2CID
4283:S2CID
3938:S2CID
3891:S2CID
3819:S2CID
3811:JSTOR
3720:(PDF)
3609:S2CID
3536:JSTOR
3498:(PDF)
3477:Notes
3221:frame
3029:Gains
2684:0.015
1371:then
790:, or
682:. If
220:Model
4969:ISSN
4881:PMID
4873:ISSN
4829:ISSN
4778:ISSN
4749:2016
4736:ISBN
4695:ISSN
4653:2016
4640:ISBN
4618:ISSN
4580:2016
4567:ISBN
4545:link
4508:2016
4495:ISBN
4416:PMID
4408:ISSN
4335:link
4315:ISBN
4275:ISSN
4225:ISSN
4063:ISSN
3989:2020
3976:ISBN
3930:ISSN
3883:ISSN
3770:2023
3662:link
3644:OCLC
3634:ISBN
3565:2020
3528:ISSN
3289:and
3244:The
2994:1000
2979:0.99
2965:and
2886:<
2880:1000
2862:0.01
2833:1000
2801:>
2795:0.01
2766:1000
2729:and
2714:0.01
2681:>
2675:1000
2624:0.01
2621:>
2615:0.01
2580:1000
2562:0.01
2532:0.99
2517:1000
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2045:>
1862:<
1823:and
1803:>
1777:>
1771:>
1262:>
1221:and
1179:>
1008:<
1002:<
976:>
970:>
743:<
104:and
47:and
4961:doi
4919:doi
4865:doi
4819:hdl
4811:doi
4770:doi
4687:doi
4610:doi
4596:107
4525:doi
4398:hdl
4390:doi
4265:doi
4215:doi
4053:doi
4015:doi
3968:doi
3922:doi
3918:164
3873:hdl
3865:doi
3861:117
3803:doi
3789:110
3698:doi
3601:doi
3520:doi
2950:985
2482:OR
2256:As
991:or
5011::
4975:.
4967:.
4959:.
4945:.
4925:.
4917:.
4905:59
4903:.
4899:.
4879:.
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4859:.
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4807:98
4805:.
4801:.
4784:.
4776:.
4766:70
4764:.
4760:.
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4667:.
4616:.
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4537:{{
4521:10
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4211:27
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4061:.
4047:.
4043:.
4027:^
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4009:.
3997:^
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3966:.
3962:.
3950:^
3936:.
3928:.
3916:.
3912:.
3889:.
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3859:.
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3809:.
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3642:.
3607:.
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3556:.
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3506:47
3504:.
3500:.
3485:^
3236:.
2898:15
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2746:15
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2479:,
2464:15
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216:.
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55:.
4983:.
4963::
4947:5
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4887:.
4867::
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4772::
4751:.
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4624:.
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4527::
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4430:.
4400::
4392::
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3991:.
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3603::
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2991:(
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1967:q
1963:,
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1946:,
1943:x
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1911:,
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1533:)
1530:y
1527:(
1521:)
1518:q
1515:p
1512:(
1506:=
1503:)
1500:y
1497:(
1491:)
1488:q
1485:p
1482:(
1476:+
1473:)
1470:x
1467:(
1461:)
1458:p
1455:(
1432:)
1429:r
1426:q
1423:p
1420:,
1417:y
1414:(
1394:)
1391:r
1388:p
1385:,
1382:x
1379:(
1359:)
1356:q
1353:p
1350:,
1347:y
1344:(
1324:)
1321:p
1318:,
1315:x
1312:(
1292:)
1289:x
1283:(
1277:+
1274:)
1271:x
1268:(
1259:)
1256:x
1250:(
1244:+
1241:)
1238:y
1232:(
1209:)
1206:x
1200:(
1194:+
1191:)
1188:x
1185:(
1176:)
1173:y
1167:(
1161:+
1158:)
1155:y
1152:(
1126:]
1122:)
1119:y
1116:(
1107:)
1104:x
1101:(
1094:[
1090:)
1087:p
1084:(
1078:+
1075:)
1072:y
1069:(
1063:=
1060:)
1057:q
1054:,
1051:y
1048:;
1045:p
1042:,
1039:x
1036:(
1033:V
1011:0
1005:y
999:x
979:0
973:y
967:x
947:1
944:=
941:q
938:+
935:p
913:)
910:y
907:(
901:)
898:q
895:(
889:+
886:)
883:x
880:(
874:)
871:p
868:(
862:=
859:)
856:q
853:,
850:y
847:;
844:p
841:,
838:x
835:(
832:V
810:y
804:0
798:x
778:y
772:0
766:x
746:1
740:q
737:+
734:p
714:)
711:q
708:,
705:y
702:;
699:p
696:,
693:x
690:(
670:q
664:p
658:1
638:q
618:y
598:p
578:x
558:)
555:q
552:,
549:y
546:;
543:p
540:,
537:x
534:(
489:v
467:n
463:p
459:,
453:,
448:2
444:p
440:,
435:1
431:p
408:n
404:x
400:,
394:,
389:2
385:x
381:,
376:1
372:x
351:V
328:)
323:i
319:x
315:(
312:v
309:)
304:i
300:p
296:(
288:n
283:1
280:=
277:i
269:=
266:V
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