181:
competition, there is no way a team can play against more than a small fraction of its competitors. Therefore, in determining the participants in championship games and tournaments, it is necessary to distinguish between teams that have compiled impressive win–loss records against strong competition
136:
used internationally to rank chess players. This system uses only wins and losses with no reference to the victory margin. The other system, "Predictor," takes victory margin into account. For that system the difference in two teams' rating scores is meant to predict the margin of victory for the
145:
team that wins a game by a margin of 7–6 is rewarded less than a team that defeats the same opponent under the same circumstances 21–7, but a team that wins a game by a margin of 35–0 receives similar ratings to a team that defeats the same opponent 70–0. This characteristic has the effect of
137:
stronger team at a neutral venue. For both systems teams gain higher ratings within the
Sagarin system by winning games against stronger opponents, factoring in such things as home-venue advantage. For the Predictor system, margin of victory (or defeat) factors in also, but a
292:
His rankings, published weekly in USA Today, are part of the complicated formula that will be used to determine the pairing in the Fiesta Bowl. Sagarin also has been a consultant for BCS boss Roy Kramer, who's something of a math whiz
132:, does not divulge the exact methods behind his system. He offers two rating systems, each of which gives each team a certain number of points. One system, "Elo chess," is presumably based on the
811:
56:
816:
505:
826:
189:. Gamblers use Sagarin's ratings as a source of "Power Ratings," traditionally used as a way to determine the spread between two teams.
209:
about which lineups to use during games and which free agents to sign using a system called Winval. Winval is modeled after hockey's
831:
841:
678:
52:
821:
724:
153:
weighted by starting rankings is used as long as there are whole groups of teams that have not played one another, but once the
673:
366:
91:
87:
317:"A Simple and Flexible Rating Method for Predicting Success in the NCAA basketball tournament: Updated Results from 2007,"
498:
276:
594:
280:
319:
157:
is well-connected, the weights are no longer needed. Sagarin claims that from that point, the rankings are unbiased.
806:
17:
491:
780:
569:
210:
154:
356:
559:
443:
432:
267:"Poll-setter: One of the most powerful men in college football is a mysterious computer whiz in Indiana"
388:
75:
63:
719:
648:
604:
599:
462:
112:
801:
103:
231:
688:
633:
361:
836:
643:
538:
514:
129:
107:
38:
8:
709:
266:
146:
recognizing "comfortable" victories, while limiting the reward for running up the score.
138:
79:
584:
579:
564:
236:
202:
99:
714:
413:
638:
619:
466:
433:
Leonhardt, David (2003, April 27). Mavericks' New Math May Be an Added Edge. NY Times
170:
142:
133:
574:
343:
327:
206:
150:
117:
60:
458:
543:
323:
271:
178:
755:
745:
528:
471:
304:
795:
740:
326:
Journal of
Quantitative Analysis in Sports: Vol. 4 : Iss. 2, Article 8.
166:
95:
693:
683:
628:
533:
331:
316:
770:
760:
83:
55:
Tournament
Selection Committee to help determine the participants in the
483:
149:
At the beginning of a season, when only a few games have been played, a
775:
750:
265:
Bagnato, Andrew (November 11, 1998). Written at
Bloomington, Indiana.
174:
185:
In addition, sports rating systems are generally of great interest to
609:
418:
47:
34:
668:
186:
201:
classmate Wayne L. Winston, a professor of decision sciences at
812:
Massachusetts
Institute of Technology School of Science alumni
165:
Sagarin's ratings are particularly relevant in the world of
589:
260:
258:
256:
254:
198:
251:
51:
sports section from 1985 to 2023, have been used by the
477:
444:(2004, April 13). Numbers game. The Washington Times
793:
414:"Jeff Sagarin Sports Ratings - USA TODAY Sports"
465:about why he believes Indiana should be in the
182:and teams that have defeated weaker opponents.
499:
57:NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Championship
232:"Verbatim: Stats guru Jeff Sagarin (Part 1)"
59:tournament since 1984, and were part of the
128:Sagarin, like the developers of many other
506:
492:
66:throughout its history from 1998 to 2014.
39:method for ranking and rating sports teams
618:
513:
679:Harris Interactive College Football Poll
229:
354:
264:
223:
110:. In 1986 he created the computer game
14:
817:Scientists from New Rochelle, New York
794:
348:
674:FWAA-NFF Grantland Rice Super 16 Poll
487:
386:
380:
367:Massachusetts Institute of Technology
92:Indiana University School of Business
88:Massachusetts Institute of Technology
827:Mathematicians from New York (state)
389:"WARNING: 'HOOPS' MAY BE ADDICTIVE"
355:Jonietz, Erika (November 1, 2002).
177:, where, with hundreds of teams in
45:have been a regular feature in the
24:
595:Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
205:, as of 2004, Sagarin advised the
33:(born 1948) is an American sports
25:
853:
452:
230:Glockner, Andy (26 August 2013).
832:Kelley School of Business alumni
580:English Chess Federation grading
160:
842:New Rochelle High School alumni
437:
344:Official BCS Website: Standings
37:known for his development of a
822:College football championships
480:, Jeff Sagarin's personal page
426:
406:
337:
309:
298:
275:. Chicago, Illinois. pp.
13:
1:
694:USA Today/Amway Coaches' Poll
605:Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
305:USA Today Jeff Sagarin's page
216:
69:
94:in 1983. He grew up outside
41:in a variety of sports. His
27:American sports statistician
7:
560:Advanced Football Analytics
553:Methods and computer models
387:Burns, Ed (30 March 1987).
90:in 1970 and an M.B.A. from
10:
858:
139:law of diminishing returns
733:
702:
661:
552:
521:
192:
141:is applied. Therefore, a
123:
570:Bowl Championship Series
76:New Rochelle High School
64:Bowl Championship Series
600:Pythagorean expectation
463:The Wall Street Journal
807:American statisticians
332:10.2202/1559-0410.1099
315:West, Brady T. (2008)
197:Along with his former
106:. In 1977 he moved to
104:New Rochelle, New York
515:Sports rating systems
478:Jeff's Sports Ratings
362:MIT Technology Review
357:"Computing Athletics"
130:sports rating systems
539:Strength of schedule
108:Bloomington, Indiana
80:Bachelor of Science
689:NAIA Coaches' Poll
585:Litkenhous Ratings
565:ARGH Power Ratings
393:Sports Illustrated
322:2011-07-07 at the
237:Sports Illustrated
203:Indiana University
100:Westchester County
789:
788:
662:Polls and opinion
657:
656:
467:Central Time zone
134:Elo rating system
74:Sagarin attended
16:(Redirected from
849:
616:
615:
575:Dickinson System
508:
501:
494:
485:
484:
446:
441:
435:
430:
424:
423:
410:
404:
403:
401:
399:
384:
378:
377:
375:
373:
352:
346:
341:
335:
313:
307:
302:
296:
295:
289:
287:
262:
249:
248:
246:
244:
227:
207:Dallas Mavericks
151:Bayesian network
118:Wayne L. Winston
61:college football
21:
857:
856:
852:
851:
850:
848:
847:
846:
792:
791:
790:
785:
729:
698:
653:
614:
548:
544:Win probability
517:
512:
474:, via USA Today
472:Sagarin Ratings
455:
450:
449:
442:
438:
431:
427:
412:
411:
407:
397:
395:
385:
381:
371:
369:
353:
349:
342:
338:
324:Wayback Machine
314:
310:
303:
299:
285:
283:
272:Chicago Tribune
263:
252:
242:
240:
228:
224:
219:
195:
179:NCAA Division I
163:
126:
72:
43:Sagarin Ratings
28:
23:
22:
18:Sagarin Ratings
15:
12:
11:
5:
855:
845:
844:
839:
834:
829:
824:
819:
814:
809:
804:
787:
786:
784:
783:
778:
773:
768:
763:
758:
756:Kenneth Massey
753:
748:
746:John Hollinger
743:
737:
735:
731:
730:
728:
727:
722:
717:
712:
706:
704:
700:
699:
697:
696:
691:
686:
681:
676:
671:
665:
663:
659:
658:
655:
654:
652:
651:
646:
641:
636:
631:
625:
623:
613:
612:
607:
602:
597:
592:
587:
582:
577:
572:
567:
562:
556:
554:
550:
549:
547:
546:
541:
536:
531:
529:Home advantage
525:
523:
519:
518:
511:
510:
503:
496:
488:
482:
481:
475:
469:
454:
453:External links
451:
448:
447:
436:
425:
405:
379:
347:
336:
308:
297:
250:
221:
220:
218:
215:
194:
191:
162:
159:
125:
122:
71:
68:
26:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
854:
843:
840:
838:
835:
833:
830:
828:
825:
823:
820:
818:
815:
813:
810:
808:
805:
803:
802:Living people
800:
799:
797:
782:
779:
777:
774:
772:
769:
767:
764:
762:
759:
757:
754:
752:
749:
747:
744:
742:
741:Mark Glickman
739:
738:
736:
732:
726:
725:Tennis (NTRP)
723:
721:
718:
716:
713:
711:
708:
707:
705:
701:
695:
692:
690:
687:
685:
682:
680:
677:
675:
672:
670:
667:
666:
664:
660:
650:
647:
645:
642:
640:
637:
635:
632:
630:
627:
626:
624:
621:
617:
611:
608:
606:
603:
601:
598:
596:
593:
591:
588:
586:
583:
581:
578:
576:
573:
571:
568:
566:
563:
561:
558:
557:
555:
551:
545:
542:
540:
537:
535:
532:
530:
527:
526:
524:
520:
516:
509:
504:
502:
497:
495:
490:
489:
486:
479:
476:
473:
470:
468:
464:
460:
457:
456:
445:
440:
434:
429:
421:
420:
415:
409:
394:
390:
383:
368:
364:
363:
358:
351:
345:
340:
333:
329:
325:
321:
318:
312:
306:
301:
294:
282:
278:
274:
273:
268:
261:
259:
257:
255:
239:
238:
233:
226:
222:
214:
212:
208:
204:
200:
190:
188:
183:
180:
176:
172:
168:
161:Justification
158:
156:
152:
147:
144:
140:
135:
131:
121:
119:
115:
114:
109:
105:
101:
97:
96:New York City
93:
89:
85:
81:
77:
67:
65:
62:
58:
54:
50:
49:
44:
40:
36:
32:
19:
766:Jeff Sagarin
765:
720:Tennis (UTR)
684:Legends Poll
629:Chessmetrics
534:Sabermetrics
439:
428:
417:
408:
396:. Retrieved
392:
382:
370:. Retrieved
360:
350:
339:
311:
300:
291:
284:. Retrieved
270:
241:. Retrieved
235:
225:
196:
184:
164:
148:
127:
111:
78:, earned a
73:
46:
42:
35:statistician
31:Jeff Sagarin
30:
29:
837:1948 births
781:Peter Wolfe
771:Nate Silver
761:Ken Pomeroy
398:14 November
84:mathematics
796:Categories
776:Jeff Sonas
751:Bill James
715:Pickleball
372:9 February
334:(Sec. 2.2)
243:9 February
217:References
211:plus–minus
175:basketball
70:Background
649:Universal
610:TrueSkill
419:USA Today
86:from the
48:USA Today
703:By sport
522:Concepts
320:Archived
293:himself.
213:system.
187:gamblers
171:football
169:college
167:American
143:football
669:AP poll
459:Article
734:People
644:Glicko
622:family
286:May 6,
193:Winval
124:Method
710:Chess
461:from
155:graph
116:with
113:Hoops
590:Log5
400:2020
374:2024
288:2024
245:2024
173:and
53:NCAA
639:Elo
634:DWZ
620:Elo
328:doi
199:MIT
102:in
98:in
82:in
798::
416:.
391:.
365:.
359:.
290:.
279:,
269:.
253:^
234:.
120:.
507:e
500:t
493:v
422:.
402:.
376:.
330::
281:4
277:1
247:.
20:)
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.