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After the predicted early-1970s peak of oil production in the U.S., production declined over the following 35 years in a pattern closely matching the
Hubbert curve. However, new extraction methods began reversing this trend beginning in the mid-2000s decade, with production reaching 10.07 million b/d
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Using the curve, Hubbert modeled the rate of petroleum production for several regions, determined by the rate of new oil well discovery, and extrapolated a world production curve. The relative steepness of decline in this projection is the main concern in peak oil discussions. This is because a steep
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The actual shape of a graph of real world production trends is determined by various factors, such as development of enhanced production techniques, availability of competing resources, and government regulations on production or consumption. Because of such factors, real world
Hubbert curves are
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in
November 2017 – the highest monthly level of crude oil production in U.S. history. As such, the Hubbert curve has to be calculated separately for different oil provinces, whose exploration has started at a different time, and oil extracted by new techniques, sometimes called
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drop in the production implies that global oil production will decline so rapidly that the world will not have enough time to develop sources of energy to replace the energy now used from oil, possibly leading to drastic social and economic impacts.
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concerns. Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to create a curve which predicted that oil production in the
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304:(Hubbert's attempt in the late 1970s resulted in an inaccurate prediction that natural gas production would fall dramatically in the 1980s),
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Drilling and
Production Practice (1956) American Petroleum Institute & Shell Development Co. Publication No. 95, See Pp 9-11, 21-22
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98:), but the two have a similar appearance. The density of a Hubbert curve approaches zero more slowly than a gaussian function:
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237:{\displaystyle x={e^{-t} \over (1+e^{-t})^{2}}={1 \over 2+2\cosh t}={1 \over 4}\operatorname {sech} ^{2}{t \over 2}.}
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Hubbert models have been used to predict the production trends of various resources, such as
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is an approximation of the production rate of a resource over time. It is a symmetric
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469:"Exponential growth, energetic Hubbert cycles, and the advancement of technology"
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324:. At least one researcher has attempted to create a Hubbert curve for the
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38:. It first appeared in "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels," geologist
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a gradual rise from zero resource production that then increases quickly
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of various natural resources. The curve is the main component of
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a drop from the peak that then follows a steep production decline.
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The graph of a
Hubbert curve consists of three key elements:
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further mathematical manipulations by a
Stanford professor
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328:industry and caviar, while another applied it to
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501:The Hubbert Curve: Its Strengths And Weaknesses
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399:"Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels"
82:The prototypical Hubbert curve is a
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425:Ugo Bardi and Leigh Yaxley.
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316:, transition metals (such as
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84:probability density function
44:American Petroleum Institute
42:'s 1956 presentation to the
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473:Archives of Mining Sciences
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467:Patzek, Tad (2008-05-17).
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78:Plot of the Hubbert curve
559:Continuous distributions
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66:would peak around 1970.
64:contiguous United States
430:Proceedings of the 4th
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94:(which is used to plot
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434:Workshop, Lisbon 2005
310:fissionable materials
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88:logistic distribution
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32:logistic distribution
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96:normal distributions
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90:curve. It is not a
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18:Hubbert peak theory
539:1956 introductions
522:2019-08-01 at the
451:2013-10-28 at the
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443:Jean Laherrere.
397:M. King Hubbert.
365:Gaussian function
360:Energy accounting
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481:. Retrieved
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410:the original
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256:Hubbert peak
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302:natural gas
270:Application
533:Categories
483:2018-11-17
377:References
544:Equations
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145:−
122:−
52:depletion
554:Peak oil
520:Archived
449:Archived
349:See also
336:Critique
281:Peak oil
275:Peak oil
60:peak oil
22:Peak oil
326:whaling
320:), and
318:copper
314:Helium
413:(PDF)
402:(PDF)
322:water
86:of a
70:Shape
432:ASPO
306:Coal
210:sech
184:cosh
26:The
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254:a "
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109:x
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