40:
599:
in favour of the 'investing' (i.e., developed) countries. However, Prebisch specifically deals with the economic cycle and highlights to a greater extent than Singer the reasons for the different behaviour of wages in developed and underdeveloped countries, and received much greater recognition for his work, in part because of efforts by industrialized countries like the United States to distance themselves from his work.
598:
Therefore, the statistical argument about the long-term trend in terms of trade of underdeveloped countries must be attributed to Singer. However, both seem to have independently invented similar explanations, stressing that the terms of trade moved against the 'borrowing' (i.e., underdeveloped) and
525:
Singer and
Prebisch noticed a similar statistical pattern in long-run historical data on relative prices, but such regularity is consistent with a number of different explanations and policy stances. Later in his career, Prebisch argued that, due to the declining terms of trade primary producers
517:
interpretation of the international order which faults differences in power relations between 'core' and 'periphery' states as the chief cause for economic and political inequality (However, the
Prebisch-Singer thesis also works with different bargaining positions of labour in developed and
536:. For this reason, much of the recent research focuses less on the relative prices of primary products and manufactured goods, and more on the relationship between the prices of simple manufactures produced by developing countries and of complex manufactures produced by advanced economies.
555:
sector could imply. They are warned to remember that the outlook for commodity prices is not favourable and that windfalls will tend to be temporary, with the subsequent relapse likely to be greater than the temporary windfall. This is exactly the warning which the PST would give.
583:, published a paper titled "Post-war Price Relations between Under-developed and Industrialized Countries", which suggested that the terms of trade of underdeveloped countries had declined significantly between 1876 and 1948. Inspired by this,
518:
developing countries). As a result, the hypothesis enjoyed a high degree of popularity in the 1960s and 1970s with neo-Marxist developmental economists and even provided a justification for an expansion of the role of the commodity
588:
532:
The hypothesis has lost some of its relevance in the last 30 years, as exports of simple manufactures have overtaken exports of primary commodities in most developing countries outside of
571:
Prebisch's lectures from 1945 to 1949 revealed the development of the theoretical strands of his argument. What he did not have was a statistical argument. In
February 1949,
509:
This theory implies that the very structure of the global market is responsible for the persistent inequality within the world system. This provides an interesting twist on
499:
than primary products, especially food. Therefore, as incomes rise, the demand for manufactured goods increases more rapidly than demand for primary products.
431:
547:
to developing countries. They are warned to be prudent even when export prices are temporarily favourable and to guard against currency overvaluation and
871:
628:
471:
of primary-product-based economies to deteriorate. As of 2013, recent statistical studies have given support for the idea. The idea was developed by
326:
551:, with all the unfavourable impact on the rest of the economy and all the dangers of macroeconomic instability which a sudden boom in a major
576:
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face, developing countries should strive to diversify their economies and lessen dependence on primary commodity exports by developing their
761:
312:
424:
864:
695:
484:
417:
898:
543:
One indication of this is that the PST is now incorporated, both implicitly and explicitly, in the advice given by the
387:
298:
659:"Testing the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis since 1650: evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks"
132:
893:
806:
877:
Trade and
Development Report Chapter 3: Evolution of the Terms of Trade and its Impact on Developing Countries
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112:
903:
811:
405:
23:
665:
496:
284:
544:
503:
457:
304:
690:
623:
613:
362:
31:
527:
859:
220:
117:
774:
Joseph L. Love (1980). "Raul
Prebisch and the Origins of the Doctrine of Unequal Exchange".
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A common explanation for this supposed phenomenon is that manufactured goods have a greater
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510:
357:
265:
94:
688:
8:
185:
84:
838:
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39:
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Bibi, Samuele (2024). Prebisch and the terms of trade. Resources Policy, 90, 104813.
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Bibi, Samuele (2024). Prebisch and the terms of trade. Resources Policy, 90, 104813.
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749:
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472:
352:
656:
506:, so a decline in their prices tends to reduce revenue rather than increase it.
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David I. Harvey; Neil M. Kellard; Jakob B. Madsen; Mark E. Wohar (April 2010).
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In 1998, Singer argued that the thesis he pioneered has joined the mainstream:
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United
Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbeans
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in the late 1940s; since that time, it has served as a major pillar of
150:
657:
Rabah Arezki; Kaddour Hadri; Prakash
Loungani; Yao Rao (August 2013).
460:
445:
225:
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Recent statistical research has given the idea qualified support.
762:
The Terms of Trade Fifty Years Later - Convergence and
Divergence
592:
552:
533:
807:"The origins and interpretation of the Prebisch-Singer thesis"
691:"The Prebisch–Singer hypothesis: four centuries of evidence"
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The Terms of Trade for
Commodities in the Twentieth Century
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presented a paper of his own discussing the decline at the
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872:United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
629:United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
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750:https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESOURPOL.2024.104813
738:https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESOURPOL.2024.104813
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577:United Nations Department of Economic Affairs
425:
313:Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism
760:Singer, Hans (1998) The South Letter (30) "
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832:
502:In addition, primary products have a low
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696:The Review of Economics and Statistics
485:import substitution industrialization
467:over the long term, which causes the
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682:
652:
650:
13:
862:, and Parra, María Angela. (2003)
463:declines relative to the price of
14:
915:
679:
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388:Primitive accumulation of capital
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299:How Europe Underdeveloped Africa
38:
133:Uneven and combined development
794:
776:Latin American Economic Review
767:
754:
742:
730:
1:
640:
368:Global North and Global South
113:Ecologically unequal exchange
812:History of Political Economy
7:
666:International Monetary Fund
602:
522:as a tool for development.
497:income elasticity of demand
456:) argues that the price of
285:The Accumulation of Capital
10:
920:
899:International trade theory
591:second annual meeting, in
566:
545:Bretton Woods Institutions
504:price elasticity of demand
450:Prebisch–Singer hypothesis
383:Prebisch–Singer hypothesis
825:10.1215/00182702-35-3-437
490:
709:10.1162/rest.2010.12184
624:Structuralist economics
614:Developmental economics
363:Illicit financial flows
575:, then working in the
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528:manufacturing industry
454:Prebisch–Singer thesis
894:Development economics
541:
483:and policies such as
221:Mirsaid Sultan-Galiev
860:Ocampo, José Antonio
358:Economic development
266:Immanuel Wallerstein
95:World-systems theory
904:Imperialism studies
186:John Bellamy Foster
85:Three Worlds Theory
32:Imperialism studies
16:Economic hypothesis
465:manufactured goods
191:Andre Gunder Frank
166:Charles Bettelheim
75:Social imperialism
481:dependency theory
452:(also called the
442:
441:
373:Lumpenbourgeoisie
334:Naked Imperialism
201:Rudolf Hilferding
118:North–South model
90:Ultra-imperialism
80:Super-imperialism
55:Dependency theory
911:
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635:Unequal exchange
520:futures exchange
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320:Monopoly Capital
181:Arghiri Emmanuel
176:Nikolai Bukharin
156:Giovanni Arrighi
123:Unequal exchange
65:Neo-Gramscianism
60:Intercommunalism
42:
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819:(3): 437–467.
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703:(2): 367–377.
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585:Raúl Prebisch
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581:New York City
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803:Richard Toye
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782:(3): 45–72.
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261:Leon Trotsky
211:J. A. Hobson
834:10036/25832
801:John Toye;
619:Group of 77
573:Hans Singer
515:neo-Marxist
511:Wallerstein
477:Hans Singer
461:commodities
378:Neo-Marxism
306:Imperialism
256:Paul Sweezy
206:Peter Gowan
171:Ľuboš Blaha
128:Superprofit
888:Categories
722:30 October
671:30 October
641:References
151:Samir Amin
446:economics
327:Multitude
843:28151403
805:(2003).
717:57569448
631:(UNCTAD)
603:See also
406:Category
226:Li Minqi
107:Concepts
49:Theories
24:a series
22:Part of
874:(2005)
788:2502991
567:History
487:(ISI).
458:primary
347:Related
841:
786:
715:
593:Havana
553:export
534:Africa
491:Theory
448:, the
292:Empire
145:People
839:S2CID
784:JSTOR
713:S2CID
662:(PDF)
278:Works
26:about
724:2014
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