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If a gambler risks a finite capital over many plays in a game with constant single-trial probability of winning, losing, and tying, then any and all betting systems lead ultimately to the same value of mathematical expectation of gain per unit amount
50:, although they can make for higher odds of short-term winning at the cost of increased risk, and are an enjoyable gambling experience for some people. Strategies which take into account the changing odds that exist in some games (e.g.
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betting systems can be based on pure statistical analysis of the odds, while others also analysis of physical factors (e.g. the horses' form, jockey form and lane draw). Common forms of betting systems for horse racing are:
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Dropping odds alert services like
Pinnacle Odds Dropper have spawned in the last few years to alert bettors to drops in any of Pinnacle's thousands of markets so that bettors can find value at other softer bookmakers.
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Modelling in sports betting requires the development of predictive mathematical algorithms to process data usually in large amounts in order to come up with an estimate of what the true odds of an event are.
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Modellers will use their model's outputs to place value bets when the odds being offered by a bookmaker or an exchange have higher payouts than their model's prediction's imply they should.
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Most bookmakers simply copy
Pinnacle when it comes to pricing their odds but on a 20 second to three minute delay which is why the opportunity for placing a value bet exists.
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and exchanges like
Betfair Exchange to come up with their estimates of true odds as they are 'sharp' operators who have the most accurate odds in the world.
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Since 2017 cloners started using a new strategy that has since become a popular of beating bookmakers. The dropping odds strategy involves waiting for
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who haven't yet dropped their own odds meaning they are still offering the old more generous odds that pay out more.
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into a player advantage — which is impossible for pure games of probability with fixed odds, akin to a
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Mathematically, no betting system can alter long-term expected results in a game with random,
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Cloning involves using odds that already exist to base your estimates of true odds.
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Modelling in very hard and requires a strong foundation in maths and data science.
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to drop their odds at which point placing a bet at another bookmaker like
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Merriam-Webster's Guide to
Everyday Math: A Home and Business Reference
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The Theory of
Gambling and Statistical Logic, Revised Edition
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Cloner's will use odds generated by sharp bookmakers like
162:- lay the horse a low price and back it at a high price.
306:"The Truth about Betting Systems - Wizard of Odds"
39:machine. Betting systems are often predicated on
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280:. Gulf Professional Publishing. p. 53.
67:The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic
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61:This is formally stated by game theorist
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329:Burrell, Brian (1998).
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16:Strategy for wagering
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482:Gambling mathematics
418:Gambling terminology
302:Shackleford, Michael
41:statistical analysis
272:Epstein, Richard A.
532:Due Column betting
510:Advantage gambling
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48:independent trials
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475:Mathematics
935:Categories
910:Wiktionary
862:Gaming law
595:Bangladesh
542:Martingale
502:Strategies
367:2024-02-09
361:POD Guides
315:2017-10-09
253:References
237:House edge
109:Martingale
91:Card games
74:Theorem 1:
33:house edge
792:Australia
654:Singapore
610:Hong Kong
555:By region
160:arbitrage
946:Strategy
890:Category
664:Thailand
632:Pakistan
600:Cambodia
449:Cardroom
409:Gambling
226:See also
209:Pinnacle
197:Pinnacle
82:Examples
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29:gambling
900:Commons
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759:Ontario
750:Canada
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154:hedging
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100:Sports
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