279:. An example of this is a 99:1 bet in which you almost always win, but when you lose, you lose all your savings. People can easily be fooled by statements like "I won this bet 50 times". According to Taleb: "Option sellers, it is said, eat like chickens and go to the bathroom like elephants", which is to say, option sellers may earn a steady small income from selling the options, but when a disaster happens they lose a fortune.
196:
that deals with the fallibility of human knowledge. It was first published in 2001. Updated editions were released a few years later. The book is the first part of Taleb's multi-volume philosophical essay on uncertainty, titled the
27:
254:, e.g., they see elephants in the clouds instead of understanding that they are in fact randomly shaped clouds that appear to our eyes as elephants (or something else);
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312:(one of the publications which receives more favourable comments in this book) said that the book was to conventional
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described the book as being playful, self-effacing and at times insufferably arrogant, but always thought provoking.
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Skewed distributions. Many real life phenomena are not 50:50 bets like tossing a coin, but have various unusual and
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Further editions have been published by
Penguin (softback, May 2007) and Random House (hardback, October 2008.)
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recounted that many criticisms raised in this book of the financial industry turned out to be justified.
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The book has been translated into 20 languages, and is reported to have sold over half a million copies.
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272:. We see the winners and try to learn from them, while forgetting the huge number of losers.
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Taleb sets forth the idea that modern humans are often unaware of the existence of
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Fooled by
Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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than it really is. So they look for explanations even when there are none.
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Fooled by
Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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454:"Nassim Taleb's 'Antifragile' Celebrates Randomness In People, Markets"
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394:– the psychological phenomenon of perceiving patterns in randomness
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Other misperceptions of randomness that are discussed include:
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In 2005, a French version appeared, with many unique changes.
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In 2001, TEXERE published the first edition of the book. (
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In 2004, TEXERE published a revamped second edition.
354:published a softback edition with more changes. (
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428:"Does big data have us 'fooled by randomness'?"
294:as one of the 75 "Smartest Books of All Time."
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239:. They tend to explain random outcomes as
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479:"Book review : Fooled by randomness"
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452:Sizemore, Charles (23 January 2013).
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362:, New York : Random house, 2005)
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426:Mouton, Andre (19 August 2013).
277:counter-intuitive distributions
257:tend to view the world as more
708:Books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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411:Useem, Jerry (21 March 2005).
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344:, London : Texere, 2001)
327:were to the Catholic Church.
16:Book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
413:"The Smartest Books We Know"
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733:Books about stock traders
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382:List of cognitive biases
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656:Fat-tailed distribution
703:2001 non-fiction books
203:, which also includes
597:The Bed of Procrustes
566:Nassim Nicholas Taleb
212:The Bed of Procrustes
194:Nassim Nicholas Taleb
38:Nassim Nicholas Taleb
581:Fooled by Randomness
503:fooled by randomness
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738:Random House books
651:Taleb distribution
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631:Black swan theory
270:Survivorship bias
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168:HG4521 .T285 2005
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63:Human knowledge,
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713:Psychology books
670:Related concepts
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605:Antifragile
432:U.S.A Today
314:Wall Street
297:U.S.A Today
259:explainable
218:Antifragile
697:Categories
584:(2001)ВЛюЧ
458:Forbes.com
415:. Fortune.
399:References
392:Pareidolia
241:non-random
237:randomness
69:Philosophy
65:Statistics
488:24 August
463:28 August
437:28 August
350:In 2005,
252:causality
156:123/.3 22
79:Publisher
376:See also
331:Editions
284:Reaction
227:(2018).
143:60349198
44:Language
291:Fortune
200:Incerto
73:Finance
60:Subject
55:Incerto
47:English
616:(2018)
608:(2012)
600:(2010)
592:(2007)
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325:theses
303:Forbes
231:Thesis
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52:Series
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115:Pages
526:View
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465:2013
439:2013
356:ISBN
338:ISBN
137:OCLC
124:ISBN
94:2001
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Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.
