Rapid intensification

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cyclone at a relatively moderate pace over a prolonged period. The "sprint" mode of rapid intensification is faster and more brief, but typically occurs in conditions long assumed to be unfavorable for intensification, such as in the presence of strong wind shear. This faster mode involves convective bursts removed from the tropical cyclone center that can rearrange the storm circulation or produce a new center of circulation. The modeled tropical cyclones undergoing the sprint mode of rapid intensification tended to peak at lower intensities (sustained winds below 51 m/s (185 km/h; 115 mph)) than those undergoing the marathon mode of rapid intensification.

40: 4362: 535: 253: 208: 115: 360: 175:

infrequency with which storms gradually strengthen to strong intensities leads to a bimodal distribution in global tropical cyclone intensities, with weaker and stronger tropical cyclones being more commonplace than tropical cyclones of intermediate strength. Episodes of rapid intensification typically last longer than 24 hours. Within the North Atlantic, intensification rates are on average fastest for storms with maximum one-minute sustained wind speeds of 70–80 kn (130–150 km/h; 80–90 mph). In the

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is assessed and has been used since 2018. The JTWC reported that a large increasing trend in the probability of rapid intensification assessed using RIPA was associated with higher likelihoods of rapid intensification. The JTWC is also experimenting with additional rapid intensification forecasting aids relying on a variety of statistical methods. Intensity forecasting tools incorporating predictors for rapid intensification are also being developed and used in operations at other forecasting agencies such as the

312:. These upshear conditions can be brought into the initially favorable downshear regions, becoming deleterious to the tropical cyclone's intensity and forestalling rapid intensification. Simulations also suggest that rapid intensification episodes are sensitive to the timing of wind shear. Tropical cyclones that undergo rapid intensification in the presence of moderate (5–10 m/s (20–35 km/h; 10–20 mph)) wind shear may exhibit similarly asymmetric convective structures. In such cases, 4376: 3318: 74:, and its predictability is commonly cited as a key area for improvement. The specific physical mechanisms that underlie rapid intensification and the environmental conditions necessary to support rapid intensification are unclear due to the complex interactions between the environment surrounding tropical cyclones and internal processes within the storms. Rapid intensification events are typically associated with warm 2379:

Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate". In Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Zhai, Panmao; Pirani, Anna; Connors, Sarah L.; Péan, Clotilde; Berger, Sophie; Caud, Nada; Chen, Yang; Goldfarb, Leah; Gomis, Melissa I.; Huang, Mengtian; Leitzell, Katherine; Lonnoy, Elisabeth; Matthews, J.B. Robin; Maycock, Thomas K.; Waterfield, Tim; Yelekçi, Ozge; Yu, Rong; Zhou, Baiquan (eds.).

244:, but whether bursts of deep convection induce rapid intensification or vice versa is unclear. Hot towers have been implicated in rapid intensification, though they have diagnostically seen varied impacts across basins. The frequency and intensity of lightning in the inner core region may be related to rapid intensification. A survey of tropical cyclones sampled by the 179:, intensification rates are fastest for storms with maximum ten-minute sustained wind speeds of 65–75 kn (120–140 km/h; 75–85 mph). Smaller tropical cyclones are more likely to undergo quick intensity changes, including rapid intensification, potentially due to a greater sensitivity to their surrounding environments. 450:(RSMCs) and are factored into tropical cyclone intensity forecasts worldwide. For example, the Rapid Intensification Index (RII) – a quantification of the likelihood of rapid intensification for varying degrees of wind increases based on forecasts of environmental parameters – is utilized by 383:. Increasing the predictability of rapid intensity changes has been identified as a top priority by operational forecasting centers. In 2012, the NHC listed prediction of rapid intensification as their highest priority item for improvement. Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) was a field experiment led by 462:

for the South-West Indian Ocean based on tools developed in other tropical cyclone basins. The Rapid Intensity Prediction Aid (RIPA) increases the consensus intensity forecast provided by the JTWC's principal tropical cyclone intensity forecasting aid if at least a 40% chance of rapid intensification

2378:

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Zhang, Xuebin; Adnan, Muhammad; Badi, Wafae; Dereczynski, Claudine; Di Luca, Alejandro; Ghosh, Subimal; Iskandar, Iskhaq; Kossin, James; Lewis, Sophie; Otto, Friederike; Pinto, Izidine; Satoh, Masaki; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Wehner, Masaki; Zhou, Botao (2021). "Weather and

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The frequency of rapid intensification has increased over the last four decades globally, both over open waters and near coastlines. The increased likelihood of rapid intensification has been linked with an increased tendency for tropical cyclone environments to enable intensification as a result of

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suggested that rapidly intensifying storms were distinguished from other storms by the large extent and high magnitude of rainfall in their inner core regions. However, the physical mechanisms that drive rapid intensification do not appear to be fundamentally different from those that drive slower

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study of rapid intensification using computer simulations identified two pathways for tropical cyclones to rapidly intensifying. In the "marathon" mode of rapid intensification, conducive environmental conditions including low wind shear and high SSTs promote symmetric intensification of tropical

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Wang, Weiguo; Zhang, Zhan; Cangialosi, John P.; Brennan, Michael; Cowan, Levi; Clegg, Peter; Takuya, Hosomi; Masaaki, Ikegami; Das, Ananda Kumar; Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay; Sharma, Monica; Knaff, John A.; Kaplan, John; Birchard, Thomas; Doyle, James D.; Heming, Julian; Moskaitis, Jonathan; Komaromi,

1109:

Leroux, Marie-Dominique; Wood, Kimberly; Elsberry, Russell L.; Cayanan, Esperanza O.; Hendricks, Eric; Kucas, Matthew; Otto, Peter; Rogers, Robert; Sampson, Buck; Yu, Zifeng (May 2018). "Recent Advances in Research and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Track, Intensity, and Structure at Landfall".

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Because forecast errors at 24-hour leadtimes are greater for rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones than other cases, operational forecasts do not typically depict rapid intensification. Probabilistic and deterministic forecasting tools have been developed to increase forecast confidence and aid

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of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (55 km/h; 35 mph) in a 24-hour period. However, periods of rapid intensification often last longer than a day. About 20–30% of all tropical cyclones undergo rapid intensification, including a majority of tropical cyclones with peak wind speeds

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satellite constellation includes studying rapid changes in tropical cyclones as one of its core science objectives. Weather models have also shown an improved ability to project rapid intensification events, but continue to face difficulties in accurately depicting their timing and magnitude.

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Zhang, Zhan; Wang, Weiguo; Doyle, James D.; Moskaitis, Jonathan; Komaromi, William A.; Heming, Julian; Magnusson, Linus; Cangialosi, John P.; Cowan, Levi; Brennan, Michael; Ma, Suhong; Das, Ananda Kumar; Takuya, Hosomi; Clegg, Peter; Birchard, Thomas; Knaff, John A.; Kaplan, John; Mohapatra,

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and may be associated with the thermodynamic properties of environments becoming increasingly conducive to intensification as a result of anthropogenic emissions. Reductions of wind shear due to climate change may also increase the probability of rapid intensification. The frequency of rapid

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experienced a 54 m/s (190 km/h; 120 mph) increase in its maximum sustained winds over 24 hours in 2015, setting a global record for 24-hour wind speed increase. Patricia also holds the record for the largest pressure decrease in 24 hours based on RSMC data, deepening

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Around 20–30% of all tropical cyclones experience at least one period of rapid intensification, including a majority of tropical cyclones with winds exceeding 51 m/s (180 km/h; 110 mph). The tendency for strong tropical cyclones to have undergone rapid intensification and the

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Braun, Scott A.; Kakar, Ramesh; Zipser, Edward; Heymsfield, Gerald; Albers, Cerese; Brown, Shannon; Durden, Stephen L.; Guimond, Stephen; Halverson, Jeffery; Heymsfield, Andrew; Ismail, Syed; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn; Miller, Timothy; Tanelli, Simone; Thomas, Janel; Zawislak, Jon (March 2013).

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Rogers, Robert F.; Aberson, Sim; Bell, Michael M.; Cecil, Daniel J.; Doyle, James D.; Kimberlain, Todd B.; Morgerman, Josh; Shay, Lynn K.; Velden, Christopher (October 2017). "Rewriting the Tropical Record Books: The Extraordinary Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015)".

493: – published in 2021 – assessed that the global occurrence of rapid intensification likely increased over the preceding four decades (during the period of reliable satellite data), with "medium confidence" in this change exceeding the effect of 2208:

Kaplan, John; Rozoff, Christopher M.; DeMaria, Mark; Sampson, Charles R.; Kossin, James P.; Velden, Christopher S.; Cione, Joseph J.; Dunion, Jason P.; Knaff, John A.; Zhang, Jun A.; Dostalek, John F.; Hawkins, Jeffrey D.; Lee, Thomas F.; Solbrig, Jeremy E. (October 2015).

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intensification within 400 km (250 mi) of coastlines has also tripled between 1980 and 2020. This trend may be caused by a warming of coastal waters and a westward trend in the locations of peak tropical cyclone intensities stemming from broader changes to

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Walsh, Kevin J.E.; McBride, John L.; Klotzbach, Philip J.; Balachandran, Sethurathinam; Camargo, Suzana J.; Holland, Greg; Knutson, Thomas R.; Kossin, James P.; Lee, Tsz-cheung; Sobel, Adam; Sugi, Masato (January 2016). "Tropical cyclones and climate change".

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defined rapid intensification as an increase in the maximum one-minute sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (55 km/h; 35 mph) in a 24-hour period. This increase in winds approximately corresponds to the 95th percentile of

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Within environments favorable for rapid intensification, stochastic internal processes within storms play a larger role in modulating the rate of intensification. In some cases, the onset of rapid intensification is preceded by the large release of

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near within inner core of tropical cyclones can also portend rapid intensification. The development of localized deep convection (termed "convective bursts") increases the structural organization of tropical cyclones in the upper

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around the center of the tropical cyclone. Rapid intensification events may also be related to the character and distribution of convection about the tropical cyclone. One study indicated that a substantial increase in

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within the downshear region of the tropical cyclone. Such conditions are conducive to vigorous rotating convection, which can induce rapid intensification if located close enough to the tropical cyclone's core of high

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Courtney, Joseph B.; Langlade, Sébastien; Barlow, Stephen; Birchard, Thomas; Knaff, John A.; Kotal, S.D.; Kriat, Tarik; Lee, Woojeong; Pasch, Richard; Sampson, Charles R.; Shimada, Udai; Singh, Amit (December 2019).

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from the sheared tropical cyclone may interact with the surrounding environment in ways that locally reduce wind shear and permit further intensification. The interaction of tropical cyclones with upper-tropospheric

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climate projections suggest that environmental conditions in by the end of the 21st century may be less favorable for rapid intensification in all tropical cyclone basins outside of the North Indian Ocean.

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Elsberry, Russell L.; Chen, Lianshou; Davidson, Jim; Rogers, Robert; Wang, Yuqing; Wu, Liguang (February 2013). "Advances in Understanding and Forecasting Rapidly Changing Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones".

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Bhatia, Kieran; Baker, Alexander; Yang, Wenchang; Vecchi, Gabriel; Knutson, Thomas; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Kossin, James; Hodges, Kevin; Dixon, Keith; Bronselaer, Benjamin; Whitlock, Carolyn (November 2022).

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Courtney, Joseph B.; Langlade, Sébastien; Sampson, Charles R.; Knaff, John A.; Birchard, Thomas; Barlow, Stephen; Kotal, S.D.; Kriat, Tarik; Lee, Woojeong; Pasch, Richard; Shimada, Udai (September 2019).

204:'s winds increased by 51 m/s (180 km/h; 110 mph) in 24 hours, marking the highest 24-hour wind speed increase for a tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere since at least 1980. 219:

prior to rapid intensification, with a strong relationship between a storm's degree of axisymmetry during initial development and its intensification rate. However, the asymmetric emergence of strong

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increases in the frequency of tropical cyclones undergoing multiple episodes of rapid intensification have also been observed since the 1980s. These increases have been observed across the various

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Duran, Patrick; Schultz, Christopher J.; Bruning, Eric C.; Stevenson, Stephanie N.; PeQueen, David J.; Johnson, Nicholas E.; Allen, Roger E.; Smith, Matthew R.; LaFontaine, Frank J. (April 2021).

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intensity changes over water from 1989 to 2000. These thresholds for defining rapid intensification are commonly used, but other thresholds are utilized in related scientific literature. The U.S.

895:

Li, Yi; Tang, Youmin; Toumi, Ralf; Wang, Shuai (October 2022). "Revisiting the Definition of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones by Clustering the Initial Intensity and Inner-Core Size".

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Judt, Falko; Rios-Berrios, Rosimar; Bryan, George H. (October 2023). "Marathon versus Sprint: Two Modes of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in a Global Convection-Permitting Simulation".

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and moisture, providing more conducive conditions for rapid intensification. The presence of a favorable environment alone does not always lead to rapid intensification. Vertical

1241: 518:. A long-term increase in the magnitude of rapid intensification has also been observed over the Central and Tropical Atlantic as well as the western North Pacific. However, 2618:

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby (May 2018). "Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic".

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Zou, Xiaolei; Tian, Xiaoxu (July 2019). "Comparison of ATMS Striping Noise Between NOAA-20 and S-NPP and Noise Impact on Warm Core Retrieval of Typhoon Jelawat (2018)".

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Wadler, Joshua B.; Rudzin, Johna E.; Jaimes de la Cruz, Benjamin; Chen, Jie; Fischer, Michael; Chen, Guanghua; Qin, Nannan; Tang, Brian; Li, Qingqing (September 2023).

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standard for gauging the mean wind is a 10-minute average, but 1-minute and 3-minute averaging periods are also commonly used to estimate tropical cyclone wind speeds.

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Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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on tropical cyclones is highly variable and can both enable or prevent rapid intensification. Rapid intensification events are also linked to the appearance of

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Blackwell, W. J.; Braun, S.; Bennartz, R.; Velden, C.; DeMaria, M.; Atlas, R.; Dunion, J.; Marks, F.; Rogers, R.; Annane, B.; Leslie, R. V. (November 2018).

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adds additional uncertainty in predicting the behavior of storm intensity and the timing of rapid intensification. The presence of wind shear concentrates

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There is no globally consistent definition of rapid intensification. Thresholds for rapid intensification – by the magnitude of increase in

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and the brevity of the intensification period – are based on the distribution of high-percentile intensification cases in the respective

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The characteristics of environments in which storms rapidly intensify do not vastly differ from those that engender slower intensification rates. High

1915:"A review of recent advances (2018–2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, part 2: Forecasts by operational centers" 3677: 3144: 94:

within the core region of tropical cyclones, but it is not known whether such convective bursts are a cause or a byproduct of rapid intensification.

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utilize differing thresholds for designating rapid intensification events, though the most widely used definition stipulates an increase in the

3807: 3202: 2169:"A review of recent advances (2018–2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, part 1: Dynamical model guidance" 577:

The recorded sustained speed of the wind depends on the length of time over which near-instantaneous wind speeds are averaged. In contrast to

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forecasters in anticipating rapid intensification episodes. These aids have been integrated into the operational forecasting procedures of

150:(NHC) reflects the thresholds of Kaplan and DeMaria in its definition of rapid intensification. The NHC also defines a similar quantity, 2125:

Cangialosi, John P.; Blake, Eric; DeMaria, Mark; Penny, Andrew; Latto, Andrew; Rappaport, Edward; Tallapragada, Vijay (1 October 2020).

1485:"The Evolution of Lightning Flash Density, Flash Size, and Flash Energy During Hurricane Dorian's (2019) Intensification and Weakening" 548: 447: 441:

was an instance in which operational intensity forecasts successfully predicted rapid intensification with the aid of RI forecast aids.

364: 59: 1765:"The Unexpected Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones in Moderate Vertical Wind Shear. Part III: Outflow–Environment Interaction" 1763:

Ryglicki, David R.; Doyle, James D.; Hodyss, Daniel; Cossuth, Joshua H.; Jin, Yi; Viner, Kevin C.; Schmidt, Jerome M. (August 2019).

304:. However, wind shear also concurrently produces conditions unfavorable to convection within a tropical cyclone's upshear region by 102:. These changes may arise from warming ocean waters and the influence on climate change on the thermodynamic characteristics of the 4091: 375:, and the timing of rapid intensification episodes has low predictability. Rapid intensity changes near land can greatly influence 347: 176: 1866:

Wang, Y.; Wu, C.-C. (December 2004). "Current understanding of tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes ? a review".

1696: 2073: 1724:"The Unexpected Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones in Moderate Vertical Wind Shear. Part I: Overview and Observations" 4402: 2396: 1027: 288: 3016: 2840: 480: 121:'s 54 m/s (190 km/h; 120 mph) 24-hour wind speed increase was the largest of any tropical cyclone on record. 964:"Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the context of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling" 4064: 4057: 3990: 3944: 464: 245: 2211:"Evaluating Environmental Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Predictability Utilizing Statistical Models" 1186: 4152: 4098: 2758: 415: 2416: 3252: 1840: 1242:"Record-setting Tropical Cyclone Ambali intensifies from tropical storm to borderline Category 5 monster in 24 hours" 582: 388: 193: 3484: 3386: 601:. The upshear side of a tropical cyclone is the side opposite the direction of the wind shear vector, analogous to 553: 468: 334: 133:. The thresholds also depend on the averaging period used to assess the storm's winds. In 2003, John Kaplan of the 4112: 4071: 3009: 770:

Guidelines for converting between various wind averaging periods in tropical cyclone conditions (WMO/TD-No. 1555)

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are potentially crucial in enabling rapid intensification. Waters with strong horizontal SST gradients or strong

17: 1656:"A review of Recent Research Progress on the Effect of External Influences on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change" 817: 792: 4105: 400: 2736: 2339:"Operational Perspectives on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Part 1: recent advances in intensity guidance" 597:

The downshear side of a tropical cyclone is the side in the direction of the wind shear vector, analogous to

376: 296: 292: 4010: 3889: 3463: 3347: 3245: 2890: 498: 490: 424: 372: 197: 71: 2297:"A Revised Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Index for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins" 515: 4216: 4198: 3800: 3217: 2655:"Increasing trend in rapid intensification magnitude of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific" 2256:"Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change Part 2: forecasts by operational agencies" 581:

measurements, sustained wind measurements are treated as representative of the background mean wind. The

505:

winds undergoing rapid intensification has increased from 1 percent in the 1980s to 5 percent.

494: 451: 189: 134: 1010:

Sippel, J.A. (2015). "Hurricane Predictability". In North, Gerald R.; Pyle, John; Zhang, Fuqing (eds.).

3285: 3081: 2960: 1524:"Necessary Conditions for Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification as Derived from 11 Years of TRMM Data" 653: 211:

Bursts of convection in the core region of tropical cyclones are associated with rapid intensification.

3980: 3923: 428: 305: 233: 147: 138: 4407: 4366: 3698: 3491: 3442: 2820: 793:"Large-Scale Characteristics of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin" 558: 506: 411: 410:

constellation was launched with a goal of measure ocean surface wind speeds with sufficiently high

4280: 3985: 3435: 3400: 3393: 3306: 1372:"Reassessing the Use of Inner-Core Hot Towers to Predict Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification*" 769: 540: 309: 268: 237: 79: 75: 4221: 4175: 2825: 2815: 2751: 510: 459: 338: 330: 260: 220: 185: 130: 126: 91: 63: 31: 2561:"Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions" 431:

may also provide more accurate predictions of rapid intensification than established methods.

4166: 3691: 3512: 3477: 3340: 3061: 3032: 686:

Hendricks, Eric A.; Braun, Scott A.; Vigh, Jonathan L.; Courtney, Joseph B. (December 2019).

455: 396: 392: 313: 44: 2559:

Li, Yi; Tang, Youmin; Wang, Shuai; Toumi, Ralf; Song, Xiangzhou; Wang, Qiang (August 2023).

2127:"Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center" 4290: 4036: 3712: 3428: 3407: 2704: 2666: 2627: 2572: 2513: 2454: 2350: 2308: 2267: 2222: 2180: 2138: 2009: 1967: 1926: 1875: 1813: 1776: 1735: 1667: 1623: 1576: 1535: 1496: 1457: 1383: 1344: 1285: 1160: 1119: 1056: 1043:

Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J. (3 February 2016).

975: 914: 849: 838:"A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification" 804: 740: 699: 318: 276: 272: 39: 8: 3967: 3928: 3863: 3642: 3565: 3456: 3449: 3414: 3354: 3333: 3299: 2916: 2880: 1722:

Ryglicki, David R.; Cossuth, Joshua H.; Hodyss, Daniel; Doyle, James D. (November 2018).

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can also be conducive to rapid intensification, particularly when involving troughs with

155: 2708: 2670: 2631: 2595: 2576: 2560: 2517: 2477: 2458: 2442: 2354: 2312: 2271: 2226: 2184: 2142: 2047: 2013: 1971: 1930: 1879: 1817: 1780: 1739: 1671: 1627: 1580: 1539: 1500: 1461: 1387: 1348: 1289: 1164: 1123: 1060: 979: 918: 853: 808: 744: 703: 4029: 3269: 3046: 2921: 2885: 2800: 2790: 2536: 2501: 1954:

Carrasco, Cristina Alexandra; Landsea, Christopher William; Lin, Yuh-Lang (June 2014).

1306: 1273: 1079: 1044: 1019: 904: 872: 837: 729:"Development of objective forecast guidance on tropical cyclone rapid intensity change" 384: 180: 143: 118: 1484: 1445: 252: 4285: 4045: 3649: 3421: 3361: 3066: 2936: 2895: 2805: 2775: 2744: 2600: 2541: 2482: 2392: 2167:

Mrutyunjay; Sharma, Monica; Masaaki, Ikegami; Wu, Liguang; Blake, Eric (March 2023).

1311: 1084: 1023: 877: 188:'s central pressure may have deepened by as much as 104 mbar (3.1 inHg) in 688:"A summary of research advances on tropical cyclone intensity change from 2014-2018" 4380: 4005: 3593: 2720: 2712: 2674: 2635: 2590: 2580: 2531: 2521: 2472: 2462: 2417:"A 'Nightmare' for Forecasters: Here's Why Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger, Faster" 2384: 2358: 2316: 2275: 2230: 2188: 2146: 2027: 2017: 1975: 1934: 1883: 1821: 1784: 1743: 1675: 1631: 1594: 1584: 1543: 1504: 1465: 1424: 1391: 1352: 1301: 1293: 1168: 1127: 1074: 1064: 1015: 983: 922: 867: 857: 812: 748: 707: 322: 207: 55: 1565:"Are Special Processes at Work in the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones?" 1045:"Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity" 346:

throughout the storm signified the beginning of rapid intensification. In 2023, a

3705: 3600: 3579: 3537: 3292: 3130: 2931: 1913:

William A.; Ma, Suhong; Sampson, Charles; Wu, Liguang; Blake, Eric (March 2023).

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to in part study rapid intensification. Multiple aircraft including the uncrewed

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IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing

1191:

World Meteorological Organization's World Weather & Climate Extremes Archive

988: 963: 114: 4258: 3663: 3621: 3614: 3607: 3558: 3544: 3530: 3505: 3498: 3169: 2679: 2654: 2585: 2526: 2467: 2443:"Recent global increase in multiple rapid intensification of tropical cyclones" 2363: 2338: 2280: 2255: 2193: 2168: 1939: 1914: 1680: 1655: 862: 712: 687: 438: 420: 201: 99: 2766: 2388: 2022: 1997: 1887: 1548: 1523: 1429: 1412: 4396: 4183: 4137: 3833: 3628: 3586: 3572: 3379: 3207: 3176: 2926: 2870: 2500:

Ting, Mingfang; Kossin, James P.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Li, Cuihua (May 2019).

2383:. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press. pp. 1513–1766. 2321: 2296: 1980: 1955: 1589: 1564: 1444:

Slocum, Christopher J.; Knaff, John A.; Stevenson, Stephanie N. (July 2023).

1172: 2235: 2210: 2151: 2126: 1998:"NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Field Experiment" 1825: 1789: 1764: 1748: 1723: 1469: 1396: 1371: 940: 772:(Technical Document). Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization 598: 196:

lists Forrest's intensification rate as the fastest on record. In 2019, the

4270: 4188: 4147: 3768: 3761: 3747: 3740: 3726: 3684: 3670: 3656: 3635: 3197: 3137: 3071: 2604: 2545: 2486: 1315: 1088: 881: 241: 216: 1356: 1131: 458:(BOM), and the NHC. An intensity prediction product is being developed at 434: 4328: 4248: 4142: 3995: 3858: 3775: 3754: 3733: 3719: 3551: 3470: 2875: 2850: 2771: 2639: 1508: 926: 229: 103: 30:

This article is about tropical cyclones. For extratropical cyclones, see

2725: 1599: 1069: 602: 359: 4333: 4323: 4302: 4263: 3975: 3894: 2911: 2865: 2830: 2032: 284: 159: 83: 2502:"Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast" 4297: 4253: 4233: 3949: 3838: 3076: 2992: 2987: 2979: 2835: 1413:"Enveloped Eyewall Lightning: The EEL Signature in Tropical Cyclones" 753: 728: 628:"How Hurricanes Jova and Lee Rapidly Exploded into Category 5 Storms" 578: 301: 256: 224: 87: 2716: 1297: 4318: 4211: 4206: 3317: 3212: 3088: 2100:"Five Years and Counting – Happy Birthday to the CYGNSS Octuplets!" 909: 280: 137:

and Mark DeMaria of the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team at

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Manikanta, N. D.; Joseph, Sudheer; Naidu, C. V. (September 2023).

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were used to probe the rapid intensification events of hurricanes

325:

and larger distances between the trough and the tropical cyclone.

4275: 4051: 3056: 2950: 2767: 2693: 1653: 1446:"Lightning-Based Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Guidance" 2653:

Song, Jinjie; Duan, Yihong; Klotzbach, Philip J (August 2020).

1956:"The Influence of Tropical Cyclone Size on Its Intensification" 1187:"Tropical Cyclone: Fastest Intensification of Tropical Cyclone" 404: 184:

97 mbar (2.9 inHg). However, other estimates suggest

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Prikryl, Paul; Nikitina, Lidia; Rušin, Vojto (February 2019).

70:

Rapid intensification constitutes a major source of error for

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Kaplan, John; DeMaria, Mark; Knaff, John A. (February 2010).

519: 2335: 1841:"Scientists find two ways that hurricanes rapidly intensify" 1482: 1271: 2124: 818:

10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1093:LCORIT>2.0.CO;2

768:

Harper, B. A.; Kepert, J. D.; Ginger, J. D. (August 2010).

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Tam, Hiu-fai; Choy, Chun-wing; Wong, Wai-kin (March 2021).

354: 2207: 1994: 1911: 1762: 1721: 1333: 685: 371:

Rapid intensification is a significant source of error in

2377: 1947: 1214:"A Rogues' Gallery of the Five Category 5 Storms of 2019" 1108: 363:

Rapid intensification forecasting has been recognized by

2248: 2246: 1370:

Zhuge, Xiao-Yong; Ming, Jie; Wang, Yuan (October 2015).

1267: 1265: 1263: 2410: 2408: 2371: 2165: 1329: 1327: 1325: 1274:"An overview of the TROPICS NASA Earth Venture Mission" 1239:

Cappucci, Matthew; Freedman, Andrew (6 December 2019).

681: 679: 677: 675: 673: 671: 2118: 1556: 1515: 1149: 1042: 784: 263:

during a period of rapid intensification in March 2018

2434: 2243: 2074:"Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS)" 1803: 1756: 1649: 1647: 1645: 1278:

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

1260: 1145: 1143: 1141: 1104: 1102: 1100: 1098: 834: 67:

exceeding 51 m/s (180 km/h; 110 mph).

2611: 2440: 2405: 2329: 2048:"Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP)" 1715: 1443: 1322: 968:

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

961: 830: 828: 668: 530: 58:

strengthens dramatically in a short period of time.

2499: 2091: 1907: 1905: 1903: 1901: 1899: 1897: 1522:Jiang, Haiyan; Ramirez, Ellen M. (September 2013). 1232: 955: 2617: 2294: 2288: 2201: 1953: 1697:"A Closer Look at Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes" 1642: 1437: 1240: 1138: 1095: 767: 423:in anticipating rapid intensification compared to 47:undergoing rapid intensification in September 2023 27:Dramatic increase in a tropical cyclone's strength 2687: 2652: 2159: 1988: 1847:. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research 1607: 1476: 1363: 825: 4394: 2646: 2493: 1894: 1859: 1797: 1238: 720: 2558: 2066: 2002:Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1179: 1153:Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1036: 894: 761: 3808:List of atmospheric pressure records in Europe 2552: 1005: 1003: 1001: 999: 619: 109: 3253: 3017: 2752: 2079:. Ann Arbor, Michigan: University of Michigan 1369: 1205: 1014:(Second ed.). Elsevier. pp. 32–33. 888: 791:Kaplan, John; DeMaria, Mark (December 2003). 790: 414:to resolve rapid intensification events. The 1562: 1521: 1404: 897:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 593: 591: 501:. The likelihood of a tropical cyclone with 1688: 1563:Kowch, Roman; Emanuel, Kerry (March 2015). 996: 943:. Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center 933: 726: 656:. Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center 448:Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers 365:Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers 3260: 3246: 3031: 3024: 3010: 2759: 2745: 549:List of the most intense tropical cyclones 158:in a tropical cyclone of at least 42 2724: 2678: 2594: 2584: 2535: 2525: 2476: 2466: 2362: 2320: 2279: 2234: 2192: 2150: 2031: 2021: 1979: 1938: 1788: 1747: 1679: 1598: 1588: 1547: 1428: 1395: 1305: 1078: 1068: 987: 908: 871: 861: 816: 752: 711: 588: 215:Tropical cyclones frequently become more 4092:South-West Indian Ocean tropical cyclone 1838: 651: 571: 433: 358: 355:Improving predictability and forecasting 348:National Center for Atmospheric Research 251: 206: 113: 38: 3267: 1832: 1694: 1613: 1410: 1211: 625: 14: 4395: 1865: 1009: 333:from moist air (characterized by high 3241: 3005: 2740: 654:"Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 10" 652:Reinhart, Amanda (6 September 2023). 427:. Intensity predictions derived from 289:convective available potential energy 279:may favor stronger air–sea fluxes of 60:Tropical cyclone forecasting agencies 2978: 2841:Tropical cyclones and climate change 2414: 2343:Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2260:Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2173:Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2040: 1919:Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 1660:Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 1337:Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 1112:Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 1012:Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences 692:Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 626:Bartels, Meghan (8 September 2023). 481:Tropical cyclones and climate change 308:dry air into the storm and inducing 4065:Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone 4058:North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone 3991:Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone 3874:East Asian-northwest Pacific storms 2097: 1868:Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 1839:Hosansky, David (26 October 2023). 465:Korea Meteorological Administration 246:Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 24: 4153:Upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex 4099:Australian region tropical cyclone 1417:Journal of Operational Meteorology 1020:10.1016/B978-0-12-382225-3.00497-7 169: 78:and the availability of moist and 25: 4419: 1695:Voiland, Adam (17 October 2017). 583:World Meteorological Organization 389:Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk 194:World Meteorological Organization 4374: 4360: 3316: 1411:Vagasky, Chris (November 2017). 1212:Masters, Jeff (9 January 2020). 554:List of tropical cyclone records 533: 469:Indian Meteorological Department 419:Statistical models show greater 335:equivalent potential temperature 4113:South Atlantic tropical cyclone 4072:Black Sea tropical-like cyclone 2415:Shao, Elena (6 January 2023) . 2098:Ruf, Chris (15 December 2021). 154:, as a decrease in the minimum 4106:South Pacific tropical cyclone 3869:Continental North Asian storms 2659:Environmental Research Letters 645: 401:2010 Atlantic hurricane season 367:as a key area for improvement. 54:(RI) is any process wherein a 13: 1: 612: 377:tropical cyclone preparedness 4403:Tropical cyclone meteorology 4367:Tropical cyclones portal 3408:Great Sheffield Gale of 1962 3348:Moray Firth fishing disaster 2891:Ridiculously Resilient Ridge 2620:Geophysical Research Letters 1489:Geophysical Research Letters 516:environmental steering flows 499:anthropogenic climate change 491:IPCC Sixth Assessment Report 373:tropical cyclone forecasting 198:Joint Typhoon Warning Center 72:tropical cyclone forecasting 7: 4217:Mesoscale convective vortex 4199:Mesoscale convective system 3801:List of European windstorms 3218:Pacific Northwest windstorm 1636:10.1109/JSTARS.2019.2891683 989:10.1016/j.jastp.2018.12.009 733:Meteorological Applications 526: 495:natural climate variability 337:), enabling an increase in 135:Hurricane Research Division 110:Definition and nomenclature 43:Infrared satellite loop of 10: 4424: 2586:10.1038/s41467-023-40605-2 2527:10.1038/s41598-019-44252-w 2468:10.1038/s41598-023-43290-9 2364:10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.10.002 2281:10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003 2194:10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.004 1940:10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.003 1681:10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.001 1193:. Arizona State University 863:10.1038/s41467-022-34321-6 713:10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.002 487:first working group report 478: 429:artificial neural networks 249:rates of intensification. 29: 4354: 4311: 4241: 4232: 4197: 4174: 4165: 4130: 4081: 4019: 4004: 3981:Australian east coast Low 3966: 3937: 3924:Australian east coast low 3916: 3907: 3882: 3851: 3821: 3792: 3522: 3464:1992 New Year's Day Storm 3371: 3325: 3314: 3277: 3237: 3230: 3190: 3161: 3122: 3115: 3106: 3097: 3039: 3001: 2969: 2958: 2949: 2904: 2858: 2849: 2783: 2389:10.1017/9781009157896.013 2023:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00232.1 1888:10.1007/s00703-003-0055-6 1549:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00432.1 1430:10.15191/nwajom.2017.0514 507:Statistically significant 474: 452:RSMC Tokyo–Typhoon Center 148:National Hurricane Center 144:Atlantic tropical cyclone 139:Colorado State University 3492:Boxing Day Storm of 1998 3485:Christmas Eve storm 1997 2821:Annular tropical cyclone 2680:10.1088/1748-9326/ab9140 2322:10.1175/2009WAF2222280.1 2106:. NASA Earth Observatory 1981:10.1175/WAF-D-13-00092.1 1590:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00360.1 1173:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0039.1 564: 559:Annular tropical cyclone 425:dynamical weather models 403:. In December 2016, the 344:stratiform precipitation 269:sea surface temperatures 76:sea surface temperatures 4281:Multiple-vortex tornado 3720:Friederike (David) 2018 3713:Eleanor (Burglind) 2018 3436:December 1981 windstorm 3394:North Sea flood of 1953 3307:Christmas Flood of 1717 2301:Weather and Forecasting 2236:10.1175/WAF-D-15-0032.1 2215:Weather and Forecasting 2152:10.1175/WAF-D-20-0059.1 2131:Weather and Forecasting 1960:Weather and Forecasting 1826:10.1175/MWR-D-23-0038.1 1790:10.1175/MWR-D-18-0370.1 1749:10.1175/MWR-D-18-0020.1 1470:10.1175/WAF-D-22-0157.1 1450:Weather and Forecasting 1397:10.1175/WAF-D-15-0024.1 1376:Weather and Forecasting 941:"Glossary of NHC Terms" 797:Weather and Forecasting 541:Tropical cyclone portal 511:tropical cyclone basins 497:and thus stemming from 277:salinity stratification 177:South-West Indian Ocean 131:tropical cyclone basins 127:maximum sustained winds 64:maximum sustained winds 4222:Line echo wave pattern 4176:Mesoscale ocean eddies 3945:Southern Ocean cyclone 3033:Extratropical cyclones 2826:Bar (tropical cyclone) 2816:Central dense overcast 1806:Monthly Weather Review 1769:Monthly Weather Review 1728:Monthly Weather Review 1701:NASA Earth Observatory 1569:Monthly Weather Review 442: 368: 331:convective instability 264: 212: 200:(JTWC) estimated that 122: 48: 32:Explosive cyclogenesis 3594:Friedhelm/Bawbag 2011 3457:Burns' Day storm 1990 3341:Night of the Big Wind 3062:Post-tropical cyclone 2811:Rapid intensification 2565:Nature Communications 1357:10.6057/2013TCRR01.02 1220:. Scientific American 1132:10.6057/2018TCRR02.02 1049:Nature Communications 842:Nature Communications 456:Bureau of Meteorology 437: 362: 255: 210: 117: 90:and bursts of strong 52:Rapid intensification 42: 4381:Tornadoes portal 4291:Anticyclonic tornado 4259:Low-topped supercell 4037:Cape Verde hurricane 3429:Gale of January 1976 2697:WIREs Climate Change 2640:10.1029/2018GL077597 2104:Notes from the Field 1845:NCAR & UCAR News 1509:10.1029/2020GL092067 927:10.1029/2022JD036870 273:oceanic heat content 166:) in 24 hours. 80:potentially unstable 4083:Southern Hemisphere 4021:Northern Hemisphere 3909:Southern Hemisphere 3864:Western Disturbance 3678:Thomas (Doris) 2017 3450:Great storm of 1987 3415:1968 Scotland storm 3355:Tay Bridge disaster 3334:Great Storm of 1824 3300:Great Storm of 1703 3270:European windstorms 3099:Northern Hemisphere 2917:South Atlantic High 2905:Southern Hemisphere 2881:North American High 2859:Northern Hemisphere 2709:2016WIRCC...7...65W 2671:2020ERL....15h4043S 2632:2018GeoRL..45.4238B 2577:2023NatCo..14.5167L 2518:2019NatSR...9.7795T 2459:2023NatSR..1315949M 2355:2019TCRR....8..123C 2313:2010WtFor..25..220K 2272:2019TCRR....8..226C 2227:2015WtFor..30.1374K 2185:2023TCRR...12...30Z 2143:2020WtFor..35.1913C 2014:2013BAMS...94..345B 1972:2014WtFor..29..582C 1931:2023TCRR...12...50W 1880:2004MAP....87..257W 1818:2023MWRv..151.2683J 1781:2019MWRv..147.2919R 1740:2018MWRv..146.3773R 1672:2023TCRR...12..200W 1628:2019IJSTA..12.2504Z 1581:2015MWRv..143..878K 1540:2013JCli...26.6459J 1501:2021GeoRL..4892067D 1462:2023WtFor..38.1209S 1388:2015WtFor..30.1265Z 1349:2013TCRR....2...13E 1290:2018QJRMS.144...16B 1247:The Washington Post 1165:2017BAMS...98.2091R 1124:2018TCRR....7...85L 1070:10.1038/ncomms10625 1061:2016NatCo...710625L 980:2019JASTP.183...36P 919:2022JGRD..12736870L 854:2022NatCo..13.6626B 809:2003WtFor..18.1093K 745:2021MeApp..28.1981T 704:2019TCRR....8..219H 632:Scientific American 412:temporal resolution 323:shorter wavelengths 240:air from the lower 156:barometric pressure 82:air. The effect of 4030:Atlantic hurricane 3986:Lake Huron cyclone 3047:Anticyclonic storm 2922:South Pacific High 2886:North Pacific High 2801:High-pressure area 2791:Anticyclonic storm 2506:Scientific Reports 2447:Scientific Reports 2421:The New York Times 1528:Journal of Climate 443: 385:NASA Earth Science 369: 265: 236:of drier and more 213: 181:Hurricane Patricia 123: 119:Hurricane Patricia 49: 4390: 4389: 4350: 4349: 4346: 4345: 4342: 4341: 4286:Satellite tornado 4161: 4160: 4126: 4125: 4122: 4121: 4046:Pacific hurricane 3962: 3961: 3958: 3957: 3903: 3902: 3847: 3846: 3817: 3816: 3362:Eyemouth disaster 3278:14th-18th century 3226: 3225: 3186: 3185: 3067:Low-pressure area 2945: 2944: 2937:Subtropical ridge 2896:Subtropical ridge 2806:Low-pressure area 2776:Centers of action 2398:978-1-009-15789-6 1812:(10): 2683–2699. 1734:(11): 3773–3800. 1534:(17): 6459–6470. 1159:(10): 2091–2112. 1029:978-0-12-382225-3 454:, the Australian 16:(Redirected from 4415: 4379: 4378: 4377: 4365: 4364: 4363: 4239: 4238: 4172: 4171: 4115: 4108: 4101: 4094: 4084: 4074: 4067: 4060: 4048: 4039: 4032: 4022: 4017: 4016: 3929:Black nor'easter 3914: 3913: 3910: 3829:Black Sea storms 3810: 3803: 3785: 3778: 3771: 3764: 3757: 3750: 3743: 3736: 3729: 3722: 3715: 3708: 3701: 3694: 3687: 3680: 3673: 3666: 3659: 3652: 3645: 3638: 3631: 3624: 3617: 3610: 3603: 3596: 3589: 3582: 3575: 3568: 3561: 3554: 3547: 3540: 3533: 3515: 3508: 3501: 3494: 3487: 3480: 3473: 3471:Braer Storm 1993 3466: 3459: 3452: 3445: 3438: 3431: 3424: 3417: 3410: 3403: 3396: 3389: 3382: 3364: 3357: 3350: 3343: 3336: 3320: 3309: 3302: 3295: 3288: 3272: 3262: 3255: 3248: 3239: 3238: 3235: 3234: 3179: 3172: 3154: 3147: 3140: 3133: 3120: 3119: 3113: 3112: 3109: 3104: 3103: 3100: 3026: 3019: 3012: 3003: 3002: 2976: 2975: 2972: 2967: 2966: 2963: 2956: 2955: 2912:South Polar High 2866:North Polar High 2856: 2855: 2761: 2754: 2747: 2738: 2737: 2731: 2730: 2728: 2691: 2685: 2684: 2682: 2650: 2644: 2643: 2626:(9): 4238–4247. 2615: 2609: 2608: 2598: 2588: 2556: 2550: 2549: 2539: 2529: 2497: 2491: 2490: 2480: 2470: 2438: 2432: 2431: 2429: 2427: 2412: 2403: 2402: 2375: 2369: 2368: 2366: 2333: 2327: 2326: 2324: 2292: 2286: 2285: 2283: 2250: 2241: 2240: 2238: 2221:(5): 1374–1396. 2205: 2199: 2198: 2196: 2163: 2157: 2156: 2154: 2137:(5): 1913–1922. 2122: 2116: 2115: 2113: 2111: 2095: 2089: 2088: 2086: 2084: 2078: 2070: 2064: 2063: 2061: 2059: 2044: 2038: 2037: 2035: 2025: 1992: 1986: 1985: 1983: 1951: 1945: 1944: 1942: 1909: 1892: 1891: 1863: 1857: 1856: 1854: 1852: 1836: 1830: 1829: 1801: 1795: 1794: 1792: 1775:(8): 2919–2940. 1760: 1754: 1753: 1751: 1719: 1713: 1712: 1710: 1708: 1692: 1686: 1685: 1683: 1651: 1640: 1639: 1622:(7): 2504–2512. 1611: 1605: 1604: 1602: 1592: 1560: 1554: 1553: 1551: 1519: 1513: 1512: 1480: 1474: 1473: 1456:(7): 1209–1227. 1441: 1435: 1434: 1432: 1408: 1402: 1401: 1399: 1382:(5): 1265–1279. 1367: 1361: 1360: 1331: 1320: 1319: 1309: 1269: 1258: 1257: 1255: 1253: 1244: 1236: 1230: 1229: 1227: 1225: 1218:Eye of the Storm 1209: 1203: 1202: 1200: 1198: 1183: 1177: 1176: 1147: 1136: 1135: 1106: 1093: 1092: 1082: 1072: 1040: 1034: 1033: 1007: 994: 993: 991: 959: 953: 952: 950: 948: 937: 931: 930: 912: 892: 886: 885: 875: 865: 832: 823: 822: 820: 803:(6): 1093–1108. 788: 782: 781: 779: 777: 765: 759: 758: 756: 754:10.1002/met.1981 724: 718: 717: 715: 683: 666: 665: 663: 661: 649: 643: 642: 640: 638: 623: 606: 595: 586: 575: 543: 538: 537: 536: 295:and strengthens 232:and offsets the 56:tropical cyclone 21: 4423: 4422: 4418: 4417: 4416: 4414: 4413: 4412: 4408:Weather hazards 4393: 4392: 4391: 4386: 4375: 4373: 4361: 4359: 4338: 4307: 4228: 4193: 4157: 4118: 4111: 4104: 4097: 4090: 4082: 4077: 4070: 4063: 4056: 4044: 4035: 4028: 4020: 4008: 4000: 3954: 3933: 3908: 3899: 3878: 3843: 3813: 3806: 3799: 3788: 3781: 3774: 3767: 3760: 3753: 3746: 3739: 3732: 3725: 3718: 3711: 3704: 3697: 3690: 3683: 3676: 3669: 3662: 3655: 3648: 3641: 3634: 3627: 3620: 3613: 3606: 3599: 3592: 3585: 3578: 3571: 3564: 3557: 3550: 3543: 3536: 3529: 3518: 3511: 3504: 3497: 3490: 3483: 3476: 3469: 3462: 3455: 3448: 3441: 3434: 3427: 3420: 3413: 3406: 3399: 3392: 3385: 3378: 3367: 3360: 3353: 3346: 3339: 3332: 3321: 3312: 3305: 3298: 3293:Burchardi flood 3291: 3286:Grote Mandrenke 3284: 3273: 3268: 3266: 3222: 3182: 3175: 3168: 3157: 3150: 3145:Great basin low 3143: 3136: 3131:Alberta clipper 3129: 3107: 3098: 3093: 3035: 3030: 2997: 2993:South Polar low 2988:North Polar low 2970: 2959: 2941: 2932:Australian High 2900: 2845: 2779: 2765: 2735: 2734: 2717:10.1002/wcc.371 2692: 2688: 2651: 2647: 2616: 2612: 2557: 2553: 2498: 2494: 2439: 2435: 2425: 2423: 2413: 2406: 2399: 2376: 2372: 2334: 2330: 2293: 2289: 2251: 2244: 2206: 2202: 2164: 2160: 2123: 2119: 2109: 2107: 2096: 2092: 2082: 2080: 2076: 2072: 2071: 2067: 2057: 2055: 2046: 2045: 2041: 1993: 1989: 1952: 1948: 1910: 1895: 1864: 1860: 1850: 1848: 1837: 1833: 1802: 1798: 1761: 1757: 1720: 1716: 1706: 1704: 1693: 1689: 1652: 1643: 1612: 1608: 1561: 1557: 1520: 1516: 1481: 1477: 1442: 1438: 1423:(14): 171–179. 1409: 1405: 1368: 1364: 1332: 1323: 1298:10.1002/qj.3290 1270: 1261: 1251: 1249: 1237: 1233: 1223: 1221: 1210: 1206: 1196: 1194: 1185: 1184: 1180: 1148: 1139: 1107: 1096: 1041: 1037: 1030: 1008: 997: 960: 956: 946: 944: 939: 938: 934: 893: 889: 833: 826: 789: 785: 775: 773: 766: 762: 725: 721: 684: 669: 659: 657: 650: 646: 636: 634: 624: 620: 615: 610: 609: 596: 589: 576: 572: 567: 539: 534: 532: 529: 503:hurricane-force 483: 477: 460:RSMC La Réunion 381:risk perception 357: 261:Typhoon Jelawat 186:Typhoon Forrest 172: 170:Characteristics 152:rapid deepening 112: 35: 28: 23: 22: 18:Rapid deepening 15: 12: 11: 5: 4421: 4411: 4410: 4405: 4388: 4387: 4385: 4384: 4370: 4355: 4352: 4351: 4348: 4347: 4344: 4343: 4340: 4339: 4337: 4336: 4331: 4326: 4321: 4315: 4313: 4309: 4308: 4306: 4305: 4300: 4295: 4294: 4293: 4288: 4283: 4273: 4268: 4267: 4266: 4261: 4256: 4245: 4243: 4236: 4230: 4229: 4227: 4226: 4225: 4224: 4214: 4209: 4203: 4201: 4195: 4194: 4192: 4191: 4186: 4180: 4178: 4169: 4163: 4162: 4159: 4158: 4156: 4155: 4150: 4145: 4140: 4134: 4132: 4128: 4127: 4124: 4123: 4120: 4119: 4117: 4116: 4109: 4102: 4095: 4087: 4085: 4079: 4078: 4076: 4075: 4068: 4061: 4054: 4049: 4042: 4041: 4040: 4025: 4023: 4014: 4002: 4001: 3999: 3998: 3993: 3988: 3983: 3978: 3972: 3970: 3964: 3963: 3960: 3959: 3956: 3955: 3953: 3952: 3947: 3941: 3939: 3935: 3934: 3932: 3931: 3926: 3920: 3918: 3911: 3905: 3904: 3901: 3900: 3898: 3897: 3892: 3886: 3884: 3880: 3879: 3877: 3876: 3871: 3866: 3861: 3855: 3853: 3849: 3848: 3845: 3844: 3842: 3841: 3836: 3831: 3825: 3823: 3819: 3818: 3815: 3814: 3812: 3811: 3804: 3796: 3794: 3790: 3789: 3787: 3786: 3779: 3772: 3765: 3758: 3751: 3744: 3737: 3730: 3723: 3716: 3709: 3702: 3695: 3688: 3681: 3674: 3667: 3660: 3653: 3650:Christina 2014 3646: 3639: 3632: 3625: 3618: 3611: 3604: 3597: 3590: 3583: 3576: 3569: 3562: 3555: 3548: 3541: 3534: 3526: 3524: 3520: 3519: 3517: 3516: 3509: 3502: 3495: 3488: 3481: 3474: 3467: 3460: 3453: 3446: 3439: 3432: 3425: 3422:Quimburga 1972 3418: 3411: 3404: 3397: 3390: 3383: 3375: 3373: 3369: 3368: 3366: 3365: 3358: 3351: 3344: 3337: 3329: 3327: 3323: 3322: 3315: 3313: 3311: 3310: 3303: 3296: 3289: 3281: 3279: 3275: 3274: 3265: 3264: 3257: 3250: 3242: 3232: 3228: 3227: 3224: 3223: 3221: 3220: 3215: 3210: 3205: 3200: 3194: 3192: 3188: 3187: 3184: 3183: 3181: 3180: 3173: 3170:Panhandle hook 3165: 3163: 3159: 3158: 3156: 3155: 3148: 3141: 3134: 3126: 3124: 3117: 3110: 3101: 3095: 3094: 3092: 3091: 3086: 3085: 3084: 3074: 3069: 3064: 3059: 3054: 3049: 3043: 3041: 3037: 3036: 3029: 3028: 3021: 3014: 3006: 2999: 2998: 2996: 2995: 2990: 2984: 2982: 2973: 2964: 2961:Synoptic scale 2953: 2947: 2946: 2943: 2942: 2940: 2939: 2934: 2929: 2924: 2919: 2914: 2908: 2906: 2902: 2901: 2899: 2898: 2893: 2888: 2883: 2878: 2873: 2868: 2862: 2860: 2853: 2847: 2846: 2844: 2843: 2838: 2833: 2828: 2823: 2818: 2813: 2808: 2803: 2798: 2793: 2787: 2785: 2781: 2780: 2774:of the world ( 2764: 2763: 2756: 2749: 2741: 2733: 2732: 2686: 2645: 2610: 2551: 2492: 2433: 2404: 2397: 2370: 2349:(3): 123–133. 2328: 2307:(1): 220–241. 2287: 2266:(4): 226–239. 2242: 2200: 2158: 2117: 2090: 2065: 2039: 2008:(3): 345–363. 1987: 1966:(3): 582–590. 1946: 1893: 1874:(4): 257–278. 1858: 1831: 1796: 1755: 1714: 1687: 1666:(3): 200–215. 1641: 1606: 1575:(3): 878–882. 1555: 1514: 1475: 1436: 1403: 1362: 1321: 1259: 1231: 1204: 1178: 1137: 1094: 1035: 1028: 995: 954: 932: 887: 824: 783: 760: 719: 698:(4): 219–225. 667: 644: 617: 616: 614: 611: 608: 607: 587: 569: 568: 566: 563: 562: 561: 556: 551: 545: 544: 528: 525: 476: 473: 439:Cyclone Marcus 421:forecast skill 356: 353: 202:Cyclone Ambali 171: 168: 111: 108: 100:climate change 45:Hurricane Jova 26: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 4420: 4409: 4406: 4404: 4401: 4400: 4398: 4383: 4382: 4371: 4369: 4368: 4357: 4356: 4353: 4335: 4332: 4330: 4327: 4325: 4322: 4320: 4317: 4316: 4314: 4310: 4304: 4301: 4299: 4296: 4292: 4289: 4287: 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