Knowledge

Rate of natural increase

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The rate of natural increase gives demographers an idea of how a region's population is shifting over time. RNI excludes in-migration and out-migration, giving an indication of population growth based only on births and deaths. Comparing natural population change with total population change shows
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Government attempts to shape the RNI of a region or country are common around the world. Policies can either encourage or discourage an increase in birth rates. For example, during the COVID-19 crisis Singapore offered families a “pandemic baby bonus” to encourage a higher birth rate, therefore
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which is dominate for a particular region. Looking at this difference across regions reveals those that are changing mainly due to births exceeding deaths and those changing mainly due to migration. The map shows just such an analysis for the US.
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of a particular population, over a particular time period. It is typically expressed either as a number per 1,000 individuals in the population or as a percentage. RNI can be either positive or negative. It contrasts to
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to support families, women's health, and maternal/child health would likely have lower death rates from infant or maternal mortality, which would increase RNI.
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This RNI gives demographers an insight into how a region's population is evolving, and these analyses can inform government attempts to shape RNI.
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Suppose a population of 5,000 individuals experiences 1,150 live births and 900 deaths over the course of one year.
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To convert the RNI per 1,000 population to a percentage, divide it by 1,000. The equation would be
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Most Influential Component of Change for US Counties That Gained Population Between 2014 and 2015
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To show the RNI as a number per 1,000 individuals in the population, the equation would be
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increasing RNI. The US has considered similar policies. Another example was China's
876: 871: 657: 652: 535: 491: 387: 202: 162:           (1,150 Ă· 5) – (900 Ă· 5) = 230 – 180 = +50 886: 647: 130: 891: 231: 209: 121: 936: 630: 579: 399: 372: 334: 150:           (1,150 – 900) Ă· 5,000 = 0.05 = +5% 679: 407: 321:
Population Facts, United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs
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It can also be shown as natural births per 1,000 minus deaths per 1,000
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The natural increase in population, from the CIA World Factbook, 2017.
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To show the RNI over that year as a percentage, the equation would be
617: 689: 612: 573: 205:, intended to decrease birth rates, therefore decreasing the RNI. 168:           +50 Ă· 1,000 = 0.05 = +5% 594: 354:"Would Americans Have More Babies if the Government Paid Them?" 373:"The Effect of China's One-Child Family Policy after 25 Years" 416: 21: 314:"Government policies to raise or lower the fertility leve" 188:
The trend of RNI over time can indicate what stage of the
260:"Growth or Decline: Understanding How Populations Change" 335:"Singapore offers 'pandemic baby bonus' to boost births" 282:
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
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International Conference on Population and Development
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Hesketh, Therese; Lu, Li; Xing, Zhu Wei (2005-09-15).
195: 934: 258:Rogers, Luke; Borsella, Peter (March 24, 2016). 257: 432: 370: 222:List of countries by rate of natural increase 836:United Nations world population conferences 351: 749:Population and housing censuses by country 439: 425: 352:Cain Miller, Claire (February 17, 2021). 472:Estimates of historical world population 179: 15: 935: 420: 905: 253: 251: 841:Voluntary Human Extinction Movement 13: 14: 959: 733:Population and Development Review 248: 192:(DTM) a region or country is in. 917: 916: 904: 781:Population concern organizations 487:Projections of population growth 882:Human impact on the environment 816:Population Action International 380:New England Journal of Medicine 831:United Nations Population Fund 446: 364: 345: 327: 306: 288: 270: 196:National efforts to affect RNI 1: 242: 278:"World Population Prospects" 190:Demographic Transition Model 7: 856:World Population Foundation 846:World Population Conference 759:World population milestones 264:United States Census Bureau 215: 139: 10: 964: 728:Population and Environment 76: 50: 24: 900: 864: 789: 741: 720: 638:Human population planning 603: 549: 500: 462:Demographics of the world 454: 114:natural population change 643:Compulsory sterilization 106:rate of natural increase 943:Demographics indicators 585:Malthusian growth model 171: 129:change by ignoring net 712:Zero population growth 707:Sustainable population 631:Malthusian catastrophe 590:Overshoot (population) 467:Demographic transition 208:A country with a good 185: 93: 87: Data unavailable 821:Population Connection 685:Mere addition paradox 524:Physiological density 392:10.1056/NEJMhpr051833 183: 19: 851:World Population Day 806:Church of Euthanasia 695:Non-identity problem 670:Political demography 626:Human overpopulation 116:, is defined as the 700:Reproductive rights 531:Population dynamics 482:Population momentum 102:population dynamics 826:Population Matters 541:Population pyramid 519:Population density 514:Population decline 341:. October 6, 2020. 186: 94: 930: 929: 801:7 Billion Actions 675:Population ethics 568:Carrying capacity 477:Population growth 386:(11): 1171–1176. 300:Our World In Data 237:Population growth 112:), also known as 92: 91: 955: 920: 919: 908: 907: 877:Green Revolution 658:Two-child policy 653:One-child policy 576: 536:Population model 492:World population 441: 434: 427: 418: 417: 412: 411: 377: 368: 362: 361: 349: 343: 342: 331: 325: 324: 323:. December 2017. 318: 310: 304: 303: 292: 286: 285: 274: 268: 267: 255: 203:one-child policy 127:total population 86: 80: 73: -5 – -0.01 72: 66: 60: 55: 10 – 14.99 54: 47: 15 – 19.99 46: 41: 20 – 24.99 40: 35: 25 – 29.99 34: 28: 22: 963: 962: 958: 957: 956: 954: 953: 952: 933: 932: 931: 926: 896: 860: 794: 792: 785: 737: 716: 665:Overconsumption 648:Family planning 605: 599: 572: 556: 553: 545: 507: 504: 496: 450: 445: 415: 375: 369: 365: 350: 346: 333: 332: 328: 316: 312: 311: 307: 294: 293: 289: 276: 275: 271: 256: 249: 245: 218: 198: 174: 142: 88: 84: 82: 78: 74: 70: 68: 64: 62: 58: 56: 52: 48: 44: 42: 38: 36: 32: 30: 26: 12: 11: 5: 961: 951: 950: 948:Temporal rates 945: 928: 927: 925: 924: 914: 901: 898: 897: 895: 894: 892:Sustainability 889: 884: 879: 874: 868: 866: 865:Related topics 862: 861: 859: 858: 853: 848: 843: 838: 833: 828: 823: 818: 813: 808: 803: 797: 795: 790: 787: 786: 784: 783: 778: 777: 776: 771: 766: 756: 754:Largest cities 751: 745: 743: 739: 738: 736: 735: 730: 724: 722: 718: 717: 715: 714: 709: 704: 703: 702: 697: 692: 687: 682: 672: 667: 662: 661: 660: 655: 650: 645: 635: 634: 633: 623: 615: 609: 607: 601: 600: 598: 597: 592: 587: 582: 577: 574:I = P Ă— A  Ă— T 570: 565: 559: 557: 550: 547: 546: 544: 543: 538: 533: 528: 527: 526: 516: 510: 508: 501: 498: 497: 495: 494: 489: 484: 479: 474: 469: 464: 458: 456: 452: 451: 444: 443: 436: 429: 421: 414: 413: 363: 358:New York Times 344: 326: 305: 287: 269: 246: 244: 241: 240: 239: 234: 232:Mortality rate 229: 224: 217: 214: 210:infrastructure 197: 194: 173: 170: 141: 138: 90: 89: 83: 77: 75: 69: 67: 0 – 4.99 63: 61: 5 – 9.99 57: 51: 49: 43: 37: 31: 25: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 960: 949: 946: 944: 941: 940: 938: 923: 915: 913: 912: 903: 902: 899: 893: 890: 888: 885: 883: 880: 878: 875: 873: 872:Bennett's law 870: 869: 867: 863: 857: 854: 852: 849: 847: 844: 842: 839: 837: 834: 832: 829: 827: 824: 822: 819: 817: 814: 812: 809: 807: 804: 802: 799: 798: 796: 793:organizations 788: 782: 779: 775: 772: 770: 767: 765: 762: 761: 760: 757: 755: 752: 750: 747: 746: 744: 740: 734: 731: 729: 726: 725: 723: 719: 713: 710: 708: 705: 701: 698: 696: 693: 691: 688: 686: 683: 681: 678: 677: 676: 673: 671: 668: 666: 663: 659: 656: 654: 651: 649: 646: 644: 641: 640: 639: 636: 632: 629: 628: 627: 624: 622: 620: 616: 614: 611: 610: 608: 602: 596: 593: 591: 588: 586: 583: 581: 580:Kaya identity 578: 575: 571: 569: 566: 564: 561: 560: 558: 555: 548: 542: 539: 537: 534: 532: 529: 525: 522: 521: 520: 517: 515: 512: 511: 509: 506: 499: 493: 490: 488: 485: 483: 480: 478: 475: 473: 470: 468: 465: 463: 460: 459: 457: 453: 449: 442: 437: 435: 430: 428: 423: 422: 419: 409: 405: 401: 397: 393: 389: 385: 381: 374: 367: 359: 355: 348: 340: 336: 330: 322: 315: 309: 301: 297: 291: 283: 279: 273: 265: 261: 254: 252: 247: 238: 235: 233: 230: 228: 225: 223: 220: 219: 213: 211: 206: 204: 193: 191: 182: 178: 169: 166: 163: 160: 157: 154: 151: 148: 145: 137: 134: 132: 128: 123: 119: 115: 111: 107: 103: 99: 81: < -5 23: 18: 909: 721:Publications 680:Antinatalism 618: 595:World3 model 455:Major topics 383: 379: 366: 357: 347: 338: 329: 320: 308: 299: 290: 281: 272: 263: 207: 199: 187: 175: 167: 164: 161: 158: 155: 152: 149: 146: 143: 135: 113: 109: 105: 95: 604:Society and 563:Biocapacity 937:Categories 791:Events and 606:population 552:Population 503:Population 448:Population 243:References 227:Birth rate 122:death rate 120:minus the 118:birth rate 98:demography 29: â‰Ą 30 887:Migration 764:6 billion 400:0028-4793 131:migration 922:Category 690:Natalism 613:Eugenics 408:16162890 339:BBC News 216:See also 140:Examples 911:Commons 554:ecology 505:biology 621:genics 406:  398:  104:, the 85:  79:  71:  65:  59:  53:  45:  39:  33:  27:  742:Lists 376:(PDF) 317:(PDF) 404:PMID 396:ISSN 172:Uses 100:and 619:Dys 388:doi 384:353 110:RNI 96:In 939:: 402:. 394:. 382:. 378:. 356:. 337:. 319:. 298:. 280:. 262:. 250:^ 133:. 774:8 769:7 440:e 433:t 426:v 410:. 390:: 360:. 302:. 284:. 266:. 108:(

Index


demography
population dynamics
birth rate
death rate
total population
migration

Demographic Transition Model
one-child policy
infrastructure
List of countries by rate of natural increase
Birth rate
Mortality rate
Population growth


"Growth or Decline: Understanding How Populations Change"
"World Population Prospects"
"Estimates, 1950 - 2020: Annually interpolated demographic indicators - Rate of natural increase (per 1,000 population)"
"Government policies to raise or lower the fertility leve"
"Singapore offers 'pandemic baby bonus' to boost births"
"Would Americans Have More Babies if the Government Paid Them?"
"The Effect of China's One-Child Family Policy after 25 Years"
doi
10.1056/NEJMhpr051833
ISSN
0028-4793
PMID
16162890

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