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He says other forms of tax cuts, such as a reduction in sales taxes and investment tax credits, e.g., in the context of Japan's "Great
Recession", are also very effective. Eggertsson infers from his analysis that the contractionary effects of labor and capital tax cuts, and the strong expansionary effect of government spending, are peculiar to the unusual environment created by zero interest rates. He asserts that with positive interest rates a labor tax cut is expansionary, per the established literature, but at zero interest rates, it reverses and tax cuts become contractionary. Further, while capital tax cuts are inconsequential in his model with a positive interest rate, they become strongly negative at zero, and the multiplier of government spending is then almost five times larger.
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overall economic health is going to worsen. Researchers at the AIA came to the conclusion that their
Architecture Billings Index is an accurate indicator of actual construction spending with on average 11 months' worth of lead time and therefore reliably leads economic downturns whenever the index severely drops below 50. For example the ABI plunged below 50 between July of 2000 and January of 2001 (and then in June of 2001 the percentage change in construction spending as compared to the prior year sank into negative growth territory) ahead of the wider crash in the US equity markets that followed.
1697:. Despite widespread predictions by economists and market analysts of an imminent recession, none had materialized by July 2024, economic growth remained steady, and a Reuters survey of economists that month found they expected the economy to continue growing for the next two years. An earlier survey of bond market strategists found a majority no longer believed an inverted curve to be a reliable recession predictor. The curve began re-steepening toward positive territory in June 2024, as it had at other points during that inversion; in every previous inversion they examined;
49:
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monetary policy leads to inflation only. Keynesian economists have mostly adopted this analysis, modifying the theory with better integration of short and long run trends and an understanding that a change in the money supply "affects only nominal variables in the economy, such as prices and wages, and has no effect on real variables, like employment and output". The
Federal Reserve traditionally uses monetary accommodation, a policy instrument of lowering its main benchmark interest rate, to accommodate sudden supply-side shifts in the economy. When the
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in unemployment is the 'Kantro rule'. This recession indicator isn't influenced by participation rates and has an equally impressive track record as the Sahm rule going back to the early 1970s. Kantro's 10% recession rule, created by
Michael Kantrowitz, CIO of Piper Sandler, measures the year-over-year growth in unemployed persons in the U.S. workforce. When the three-month moving average of this indicator grows beyond the 10% threshold at least in the past 11 occurrences the economy has already been in recession.
2229:. Their models estimate the 12-month-ahead recession probabilities using the term spread. This yield curve spread has been found to be a valuable forecasting tool, outperforming other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead. An inversion of this yield curve has been successful in predicting past recessions, including those in 1973-75, and 1981-82. The Estrella and Mishkin model later also successfully predicted the recessions in the early 2000s, and the
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of economists believed that the recession may have ended. The
National Bureau of Economic Research announced on 20 September 2010 that the 2008/2009 recession ended in June 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II. Prior to the start of the recession, it appears that no known formal theoretical or empirical model was able to accurately predict the advance of this recession, except for minor signals in the sudden rise of forecasted probabilities, which were still well under 50%.
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debts they ran up in the bubble years. This would be fine if someone else were taking up the slack. But what's actually happening is that some people are spending much less while nobody is spending more—and this translates into a depressed economy and high unemployment. What the government should be doing in this situation is spending more while the private sector is spending less, supporting employment while those debts are paid down. And this government spending needs to be sustained..."
2736:. Although the collapse was larger than the one in 1929, the global economy recovered quickly, but North America still suffered a decline in lumbering savings and loans, which led to a crisis. The recession was not limited to the United States, but it also affected partnering nations such as Australia. The unemployment level increased to 10.8%, employment declined by 3.4% and the GDP also decreased as much as 1.7%. Inflation, however, was successfully reduced.
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and the longer (e.g. 10-year) Treasury yield, has in the past, been a reliable recession signal as the curve usually disinverts (or un-inverts) nearly before the recession truly appears. Based on recent history, the last four recessions, as of Q2-2024, didn’t start until the inverted curve returned to a positive reading (steepens). Further analysis shows that "the average time to recession (...) only 66 days from when the curve disinverts."
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such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies (Smith, 2018; Johnson & Thompson, 2020). By examining these factors comprehensively, economists gain insights into the complex dynamics that contribute to economic downturns and can formulate effective strategies for mitigating their impact (Anderson, 2019; Patel, 2017).
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financial institutions are shrinking assets to bolster capital and improve their chances of weathering the current storm. Once again, Minsky understood this dynamic. He spoke of the paradox of deleveraging, in which precautions that may be smart for individuals and firms—and indeed essential to return the economy to a normal state—nevertheless magnify the distress of the economy as a whole."
4553:
1189:, an independent federal agency that provides official macroeconomic and industry statistics, says "the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation" and that instead, "The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research".
1433:) yet do not effectively stimulate the economy. In theory, near-zero interest rates should encourage firms and consumers to borrow and spend. However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; increasing the money supply is like "
1825:, a shipping freight-cost index which reflects the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers, is generally seen as a leading indicator of economic activity, because changes in the index reflect global supply and demand for commodities and raw materials used in manufacturing. A falling BDI can signal a slowdown in economic activity.
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tend to spend more rather than save if they believe inflation is on the horizon. In more technical terms, Krugman argues that the private sector savings curve is elastic even during a balance sheet recession (responsive to changes in real interest rates), disagreeing with Koo's view that it is inelastic (non-responsive to changes in real interest rates).
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full-time employment (with the year-over-year change crossing into negative territory as recession risk warning). Another way to use this approach is to look at the number of people who are working part time but would rather be working full time, according to data from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. This approach is also called U-7 and was invented by
1920:, a Dartmouth labor economist who served on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee. David Kotok, the chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, says the way to use the U-7 number is to compare it with the main unemployment rate, which the Labor Department calls U-3. When the U-3 rises faster than the U-7, that is a recession warning.
1401:, in which U.S. GDP fell by 46%. He argued that monetary policy was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities. In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy.
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According to economists, since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion. From 1980 to 2018 there were only eight periods of negative economic growth over one fiscal quarter or more, and four periods
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for policy analysis, writes that cutting taxes on labor or capital is contractionary under certain circumstances, such as those that prevailed following the economic crisis of 2008, and that temporarily increasing government spending at such times has much larger effects than under normal conditions.
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Monetarist economists have argued that objectives of monetary policy, i.e., controlling the money supply to influence interest rates, are best achieved by targeting the growth rate of the money supply. They maintain that money may affect output in the short term but that in the long run, expansionary
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would raise investment, thereby making workers more productive and raising output and wages. Investment patterns in the United States through 2019, however, indicated that the supply-side incentives of the TCJA had little effect on investment growth. Although investments increased after 2017, much of
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contraction: The GDP measures a country's economic output, all goods and services a country produces. GDP provides a good insight into what has already been taking place in the economy. A contraction in GDP, especially if it occurs for two consecutive quarters, is a strong indicator of a recession as
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appear to be more useful to predict a recession ahead of time than other variables, no single variable has proven to be an always reliable predictor whether recessions will actually (soon) appear, let alone predicting their sharpness and severity in terms of duration. The longest and deepest
Treasury
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Excessive levels of indebtedness or the bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause what is called a "balance sheet recession". This occurs when large numbers of consumers or corporations pay down debt (i.e., save) rather than spend or invest, which slows the economy. The term
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economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread. The
Estrella and Mishkin model is a well-known approach for predicting U.S. recessions. This model primarily uses the yield curve, specifically the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates, as a predictor. This method has been widely
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in the stock market, specifically strong shifts in investment from leading more volatile sectors like consumer cyclicals and consumer discretionary (as well as e.g. biotechnology) to more stable sectors such as utilities and consumer staples (as well as e.g. telecommunications) can signal increasing
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9-12 months ahead. The ABI is a survey send each month by the AIA to several hundreds of architecture firms. The index can be used to predict a recession. The index is centered around a value of 50. Below 50 means there is a high likelihood that construction spending will decrease and that therefore
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Six other employment-based recession indicators are: 1) new claims for unemployment (8-week smoothing of 26-week change) larger than 60.000. 2) Continuing claims for unemployment (percent change year-over-year) larger 21%. 3) Employed part-time due to economic reasons (percent change year-over-year)
1334:
wrote that the term "refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or
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A December 2008 report from the
National Bureau of Economic Research stated that the U.S. had been in a recession since December 2007, when economic activity peaked, based on several measures including job losses, declines in personal income, and declines in real GDP. By July 2009, a growing number
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A November 2008 report from the
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on the survey of 51 forecasters, suggested that the recession started in April 2008 and would last 14 months. They projected real GDP declining at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.1% in the first quarter of
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Although the US economy grew in the first quarter by 1%, by June 2008 some analysts stated that due to a protracted credit crisis and "rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food, and steel", the country was nonetheless in a recession. The third quarter of 2008 brought on a GDP retraction of
2705:: 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009. All of them only lasted one year, although the third would have lasted three years (1991–1993) if IMF as criteria had used the normal exchange rate weighted per‑capita real World GDP rather than the purchase power parity weighted per‑capita real World GDP.
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In April 2009, IMF had changed their Global recession definition to "A decline in annual per‑capita real World GDP (purchasing power parity weighted), backed up by a decline or worsening for one or more of the seven other global macroeconomic indicators: Industrial production, trade, capital
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can indicate that a recession may be on the horizon as it has historically often preceded economic downturns with lead times ranging from several months to over a year. Especially the disinversion, a move back into positive territory for the spread between the shorter (e.g. 3-month or 2-year) yield
1911:
Jobs market contraction: The 'Perkins rule', created by GlobalData TS Lombard managing director Dario Perkins, triggers when payrolls are declining. Commonly when the Sahm rule produces a recession warning signal the Perkins rule has already triggered. Another jobs market indicator measuring a rise
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A July 2012 survey of balance sheet recession research reported that consumer demand and employment are affected by household leverage levels. Both durable and non-durable goods consumption declined as households moved from low to high leverage with the decline in property values experienced during
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when faced with a balance sheet recession would be appropriate. However, Krugman argued that monetary policy could also affect savings behavior, as inflation or credible promises of future inflation (generating negative real interest rates) would encourage less savings. In other words, people would
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in 1973, caused partially by the oil crisis happening in that same year, which brought inflation at a 13% increase. Economic recession hit by the middle of the year 1974, with no change in policy enacted by the government as a measure to counter the economic situation of the country. Consequently,
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for new private housing units. Residential investment contains information that is particularly useful for predicting recessions when compared by what is captured by standard leading indicators such as the term spread. And it is especially useful for the prediction of recessions for countries with
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There are various trucking indices, most notably the Cass Freight Index, which measures monthly freight activity across all domestic freight modes in North America. Other trucking indices are the FreightWaves National Truckload Index (NTI), the FTR Trucking Conditions Index (TCI), the ACT For-Hire
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loop for more than a year. A process of balance sheet deleveraging has spread to nearly every corner of the economy. Consumers are pulling back on purchases, especially durable goods, to build their savings. Businesses are cancelling planned investments and laying off workers to preserve cash. And
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to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do. Corporate investment, a key demand component of GDP, fell enormously (22% of GDP) between 1990 and its peak decline in 2003.
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A recession encompasses multiple attributes that often occur simultaneously and encompasses declines in component measures of economic activity, such as GDP, including consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures are indicative of underlying drivers
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in the U.S. grew to 8.5% in March 2009, and there were 5.1 million job losses by March 2009 since the recession began in December 2007. That was about five million more people unemployed compared to just a year prior, which was the largest annual jump in the number of unemployed persons since the
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By this measure, six periods since 1970 qualify: 1974–1975, 1980–1983, 1990–1993, 1998, 2001–2002, and 2008–2009. During what IMF in April 2002 termed the past three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output growth was zero or negative, and IMF argued—at that time—that
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There are many reasons why recessions happen. One overall reason can be lack of demand due to sharp developments in the prices of the inputs used in producing goods and services. Another main reason can be problems e.g. in financial markets. Because recessions have many likely explanations, it is
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The European Union, akin to the NBER's methodology, has embraced a definition of recession that integrates GDP alongside a spectrum of macroeconomic indicators, including employment and various other metrics. This approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of the depth and breadth of economic
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saw private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This indicated the depth and severity of the recession. With consumer confidence so low, economic recovery took a long time. Consumers in the U.S. were hit hard by the Great Recession, with the value of their houses dropping and
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NBER has sometimes declared a recession before a second quarter of GDP shrinkage has been reported, but beginnings and endings can also be declared over a year after they are reckoned to have occurred. In 1947, NBER did not declare a recession despite two quarters of declining GDP, due to strong
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were paying down debts and unable to carry the U.S. economy as they had previously: "The root of our current troubles lies in the debt American families ran up during the Bush-era housing bubble...highly indebted Americans not only can't spend the way they used to, they're having to pay down the
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Keynes showed that if somehow the level of aggregate demand could be triggered, possibly by the government printing currency notes to employ people to dig holes and fill them up, the wages that would be paid out would resuscitate the economy by generating successive rounds of demand through the
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According to research by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a leading indicator of economic cycles. It tracks the movement of freight and passengers to provide insights into the broader economic conditions. Both TSI index components lead the
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of the beginning a recession. Usually, the signal happens in the three months of the recession. The CFNAI Diffusion Index signal tends to happen about one month before a related signal by the CFNAI-MA3 (3-month moving average) drops below the −0.7 level. The CFNAI-MA3 correctly identified the 7
1470:
Behavior that may be optimal for an individual (e.g., saving more during adverse economic conditions) can be detrimental if too many individuals pursue the same behavior, as ultimately, one person's consumption is another person's income. Too many consumers attempting to save (or pay down debt)
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Official economic data shows that a substantial number of nations were in recession as of early 2009. The US entered a recession at the end of 2007, and 2008 saw many other nations follow suit. The US recession of 2007 ended in June 2009 as the nation entered the current economic recovery. The
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For the last three of these recessions, the NBER decision has approximately conformed with the definition involving two consecutive quarters of decline. While the 2001 recession did not involve two consecutive quarters of decline, it was preceded by two quarters of alternating decline and weak
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago developed the ROC Threshold Index (ROC means receiver operating characteristic). It combines multiple leading indicators to predict recessions. It has shown better predictive ability than individual indicators up to 11 months ahead. And it also significantly
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Indicators of chemical activity provide a longer lead time compared to other economic indicators. Tracking chemical activity as an index can lead by two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks and four months at cycle troughs, according to the American Chemistry
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or monetary policies by the government, which are contractionary in nature: A contractionary policy is a tool usually used to tame rising inflation. Excessive use of tightening policies, e.g. too rapid increases in interest rates, can reduce demand and consumer spending for goods and services,
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U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008, the most in five years. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on 6 April 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession." On 1 October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that an
1915:
Growing shifts in labor market internals to part-time work signals increasing weakness in the economy as normally part-time jobs rise and full-time jobs decrease as a share of employment before a recession takes hold. As an indicator this can be measured simply using the ratio of part-time to
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Summary: Why recessions happen is a complex phenomena often resulting from a interplay of various factors. While these factors can individually contribute to a recession, the cumulative impact of several occurring simultaneously can significantly amplify the negative effect on the economy.
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the subprime mortgage crisis. Further, reduced consumption due to higher household leverage can account for a significant decline in employment levels. Policies that help reduce mortgage debt or household leverage could therefore have stimulative effects (Smith & Johnson, 2012).
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derives from an accounting identity that holds that assets must always equal the sum of liabilities plus equity. If asset prices fall below the value of the debt incurred to purchase them, then the equity must be negative, meaning the consumer or corporation is insolvent. Economist
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The long-term spread: The spread between a shorter-term rate (like the three-month Treasury yield) and 10-year U.S. bond yields. The long-term Treasury yield spread has been particularly effective at predicting recessions many months in advance, achieving an AUC (Area Under the
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Japanese firms overall became net savers after 1998, as opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus (borrowing and spending by the government) that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U.S. type
1607:: Artificially low interest rates can encourage excessive borrowing and result in a buildup of risk in the financial sector. When interest rates rise, these investments (like new constructions in real estate) may fail, exacerbate economic declines, contributing to a recession.
1165:(NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in
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Both indices (BDI and DJTA) serve as barometers for economic health and are considered to be leading economic indicators but from different perspectives. The BDI focuses on global trade and commodity demand, while the DJTA reflects domestic transportation activity in the
1924:
larger 16%. 4) Unemployed more than 15 weeks (percent change from 12-month low) larger 30%. 5) Temporary help services (percent change year-over-year) smaller -2%. 6) Aggregate hours worked, production and non-supervisory employees (6-month percent change) smaller 0%.
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The full impact of a recession on employment may not be felt for several quarters. After recessions in Britain in the 1980s and 1990s, it took five years for unemployment to fall back to its original levels. Employment discrimination claims rise during a recession.
1980:: Declines in consumer sentiment and confidence can signal a recession. These measures reflect consumers' outlook on the economy and their willingness to spend, which drives economic activity. A drop in consumer confidence often precedes reduced consumer spending.
1506:
demanding to predict them. Some variables might at first glance be the causes of recessions, but they could also be the results of a recession, which means they are endogenous to recessions. One can summarize the causes of recessions in the following categories:
2919:
In July 2022, the NBER released a statement regarding declaring a recession following a second consecutive quarter of shrinking GDP, "There is no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions".
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Sausage sales: Heightened appetites for sausages might be a harbinger of a looming economic downturn, because sausages are a cheaper protein substitute for other higher-priced meat products, a reaction by shoppers when times are tough experts call the “trade
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Average weekly hours in manufacturing. Firms tend to react to worsening business cycle circumstances by lowering hours worked before laying off workers, according to Glosser and Golden (1997). This popular indicator leads industrial production by two to four
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can cause widespread disruptions in critical sectors in supply chains and disrupt economic activity, reduce productivity, increase costs, affect confidence and thereby diminish economic activity, leading to decreased spending and investment and finally
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Financial market problems: Issues in financial markets, such as rapid credit expansion. When households accumulate excessive debt and later face difficulties in meeting their obligations, they cut back on consumption, leading to a decrease in economic
1375:
was only one manifestation of a broader problem of excessive debt—that it was a so-called "balance sheet recession". In Krugman's view, such crises require debt reduction strategies combined with higher government spending to offset declines from the
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hit, it didn't take long before we were in a recession. The recession, in turn, deepened the credit crunch as demand and employment fell, and credit losses of financial institutions surged. Indeed, we have been in the grips of precisely this adverse
2685:(IMF), "Global recessions seem to occur over a cycle lasting between eight and 10 years." The IMF takes many factors into account when defining a global recession. Until April 2009, IMF several times communicated to the press, that a global annual
1185:". The NBER also explains that: "a recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its through." The NBER is considered the official arbiter of recession start and end dates for the United States. The
1887:: A enlarging unemployment rate with rising initial claims for unemployment insurance indicate weakening labor market conditions, which can be a precursor to a recession. This indicator leads industrial production by two to three months. Also see
6711:
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12
1882:
Growing unemployment rate as measured by the initial claims for unemployment insurance (indicated by a constant enduring year-over-year increase in the three-week average of unemployment insurance initial claims), which are reported by the
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found that only two of the sixty recessions around the world during the 1990s had been predicted by a consensus of economists one year earlier, while there were zero consensus predictions one year earlier for the 49 recessions during 2009.
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during a recession. In other words, unemployment never reaches 0%, so it is not a negative indicator of the health of an economy, unless it exceeds the "natural rate", in which case the excess corresponds directly to a loss in the GDP.
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The type and shape of recessions are distinctive. In the US, v-shaped, or short-and-sharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in 1954 and 1990–1991; U-shaped (prolonged slump) in 1974–1975, and W-shaped, or
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Australia next went into recession in March 2020, due to the impact of huge bush fires and the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on tourism and other important aspects of the economy. This recession, while steep, only lasted until May 2020.
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Credit conditions like credit spreads. The spread between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries is important. If the spread between corporate and government debt increases, this could signal that private sector lending is becoming
1832:
contains railroads, shipping companies, air freight carriers, marine transportation, delivery services, and logistics companies. The performance of transportation stocks can predict trends in the broader market, according to the
2176:(includes some of the above indicators). The LEI's lead time is six to seven months. The Conference Board’s leading index is highly accurate in the near term, one to three months ahead (accomplishing an AUC value of 0.97).
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also described a "paradox of deleveraging" as financial institutions that have too much leverage (debt relative to equity) cannot all de-leverage simultaneously without significant declines in the value of their assets.
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1383:
For example, economist Richard Koo wrote that Japan's "Great Recession" that began in 1990 was a "balance sheet recession". It was triggered by a collapse in land and stock prices, which caused Japanese firms to have
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Low industrial output and sales: During economic downturns, companies reduce production to minimize risk. This leads to lower industrial output and sales, which can signal an impending recession, because it causes a
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by making necessities like transportation and housing costlier. This will tend to constrict spending for non-essential goods and services. Once the recession occurs, commodity prices will usually reset to a lower
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and credit and debt issues: Overextension of credit and accumulation of risky debt can lead to financial crises. When borrowers (e.g. corporations) default, it can cause a cascade of business failures and reduced
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policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand. He estimated in March 2010 that developed countries representing 70% of the world's GDP were caught in a liquidity trap.
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1787:. As fewer goods are produced, lesser resources like labor, equipment and raw materials are required. As industrial output falls this sooner or later leads to a cutback in hiring as well as a surge in layoffs.
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declared that nine US states were in a recession. In November 2008, employers eliminated 533,000 jobs, the largest single-month loss in 34 years. In 2008, an estimated 2.6 million U.S. jobs were eliminated.
1315:
rather than invest. Such expectations can create a self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession. Consumer confidence is one measure used to evaluate economic sentiment. The term
1147:
In terms of financial indicators - A significant increase in loan defaults or a tightening of credit conditions by financial institutions, leading to a decrease in business investment and consumer spending.
2513:, Siegel mentions that since 1948, ten recessions were preceded by a stock market decline, by a lead time of 0 to 13 months (average 5.7 months), while ten stock market declines of greater than 10% in the
2048:
The near-term forward spread: This is the difference between the market expectation of the interest rate on a three-month Treasury bill six quarters in the future and the current three-month Treasury bill
6585:
Using the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve to predict S&P 500 returns and U.S. recessions | Theodore Gregory Hanks | Pennsylvania State University, Schreyer Honors College Department of Finance | Spring 2012
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The Atlanta Fed offers a GDPnow model, which estimates changes in real GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP. GDPnow can provide a timelier gauge of the current state of the economy.
1533:: A widespread drop in spending, known as an adverse demand shock, can lead to recessions. This can be triggered by various events, including the bursting of economic bubbles (see economic bubbles below).
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Global spillover effects: Recessions in one part of the world can have spillover effects on other economies due to global interconnectedness. For example, economic troubles in Europe can impact the U.S.
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experienced a recession in 2012: the economies of the 17-nation region failed to grow during any quarter of the 2012 calendar year. The recession deepened during the final quarter of the year, with the
2539:
An administration generally gets credit or blame for the state of the economy during its time in office; this state of affairs has caused disagreements about how particular recessions actually started.
2662:. The loss of a job is known to have a negative impact on the stability of families, and individuals' health and well-being. Fixed income benefits receive small cuts which make it tougher to survive.
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Basic industrial chemicals like chlorine, alkalies, pigments and plastic resins are positioned early in the supply chain. This early position allows to identify emerging turning points in the economy.
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1853:
Producer Price Index (PPI) by Industry: General Freight Trucking Index. These indices are essential for understanding the dynamics of the trucking industry and predicting future market conditions.
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1006:
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Chemical activity also includes data on hours worked in chemicals, chemical company stock data, publicly sourced chemical price information, end-use chemical industry sales-to-inventories.
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As a result of late 1920s profit issues in agriculture and cutbacks, 1931–1932 saw Australia's biggest recession in its entire history. It fared better than other nations that underwent
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2189:. This index contains the real oil price, well permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, Texas stock index, help-wanted index and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing.
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flows, oil consumption, unemployment rate, per‑capita investment, and per‑capita consumption." By this new definition, a total of four global recessions took place since
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Plunging underwear sales: During the global financial crisis, men's underwear sales dropped significantly, mirroring reduced consumer spending and causing former Federal Reserve head
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1987:
can also signal a recession. As consumers cut back on spending, businesses may respond by reducing production and laying off workers, creating a cycle that can lead to a recession.
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5585:
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1154:
Over the years, some commentators dropped most of Shiskin's "recession-spotting" criteria for the simplistic rule-of-thumb of a decline in real GNI for two consecutive quarters.
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between firms rises sharply. The fall in productivity could also be attributed to several macro-economic factors, such as the loss in productivity observed across the UK due to
2201:
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and its nonfinancial leverage subindex can be used as leading indicators to predict a recession.
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contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse
6200:
5060:
4272:
3132:
4662:
2033:
Rising corporate debt can foreshadow a bear market, notably when businesses go ahead with taking on more debt, despite having diminishing sales and dwindling earnings.
7833:
6176:
2017:
high home-ownership rates. Research results strongly suggest that recession predictability of leading indicators is improved, when residential investment is included.
7379:
5829:
5091:
1627:: Euphoria and speculative borrowing as well as unsustainable financial practices eventually result in economic downturns. A Minsky Moment marks the point at which
1601:: Restrictions on credit availability also known as credit crunch, can reduce consumer spending and business investment, leading to a slowdown in economic activity.
7260:
6622:
3886:
8134:
4324:
1763:
Measuring manufacturing output against business demand (new orders plus backlog minus inventory) as a composite index for U.S. economic activity, using data from
9494:
7889:
5359:"2 recession indicators with perfect track records show the US just entered a downturn — opening the door for stocks to plummet as the Fed gets set to cut rates"
1129:
suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this:
2225:, uses the difference between the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds and 3-month Treasury bills, as detailed in their research papers and working papers for the
1207:
4061:
2527:
Since the business cycle is very hard to predict, Siegel argues that it is not possible to take advantage of economic cycles for timing investments. Even the
8394:
7919:
6808:
3649:
1516:: A sudden increase in the prices of key inputs (input price shock) can lead to higher production costs and reduced aggregate demand, triggering a recession.
1311:
Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For example, if companies expect economic activity to slow, they may reduce employment levels and save
2233:
of 2007-2009. Moreover, a negative spread has historically preceded each U.S. recession since the 1950s, according to The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
1150:
In terms of diffusion – A decline in non-agricultural employment in more than 75% of industries, as measured over six-month spans, for six months or longer.
9484:
7999:
1326:
1077:, a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real
5687:
5508:
8249:"Real GDP First-Quarter 2008 Preliminary Estimate :: Brent Meyer :: Economic Trends :: 06.03.08 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland"
7671:
7189:
6725:
6505:
5296:
4619:
5904:
5439:
5390:"Sahm Rule is picking up on something that's 'very worrisome' - New Century Advisors chief economist Claudia Sahm weighs in on the Fed's next rate move"
765:
9474:
7310:
6939:
4540:
2992:
0.5%, the biggest decline since 2001. The 6.4% decline in spending during Q3 on non-durable goods, like clothing and food, was the largest since 1950.
2721:. The nation also benefited from greater productivity in manufacturing, facilitated by trade protection, which also helped with lessening the effects.
2045:
curve) value of 0.89 at 14 months ahead. And it is the best predictor at a horizon of 16 to 20 months ahead, when compared to other leading indicators.
1617:
period and accumulation of financial risks during good economic times creates a asset bubble, followed by continued sharp declines in asset prices, a (
1013:
4687:
4570:
4154:
2104:, as measured e.g. by the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), may increase before recessions, which usually hinders
1771:(Empire Manufacturing, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas) indices, has been a reliable recession indicator during the last eight recessions.
1291:
in 1949 and 1980–1982. Japan's 1993–1994 recession was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997–1999 can be described as L-shaped.
9479:
5358:
3457:
3418:
6083:
8749:
8609:
6653:
3993:
2123:
Significant declines in stock prices can reflect investor pessimism about future economic conditions and can be a leading indicator of a recession.
1868:
Business sector profits. Declining corporate earnings over successive quarters can signal economic trouble and the risk of a potential bear market.
1199:
are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonal adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for
850:
8225:
7610:
3595:
7466:
7414:
6295:
5530:
Neves, Pedro Cunha; Afonso, Óscar; Silva, Sandra Tavares (February 2016). "A Meta-Analytic Reassessment of the Effects of Inequality on Growth".
2144:
1973:
1760:
A decline in manufacturing activities and new orders for consumer and capital goods can signal reduced business investment and economic slowdown.
1218:
8578:
8248:
8177:
6658:
5470:
4940:
4123:
3851:
7332:
3912:
8315:
5408:
5265:
7227:
6137:
4092:
1998:
1701:
analysts found the curve had re-steepened before a recession began. The following variables and indicators are used by economists, like e.g.
8103:
7573:
5645:
5615:
5211:
5140:
3572:
1908:. On average, the peak in the labor differential comes nine months ahead of a recession, according to BCA Research strategist Peter Berezin.
8992:
8617:
7491:
6578:
6460:
6220:
4800:
4571:"Wall Street starts 2017 with tailwind | By Juergen Buettner | 4 January 2017 | Chart 1: Consumer Confidence Index and Historically Shocks"
3700:
1897:
Swelling unemployment rate, specifically a unemployment rate rising above its 36-month moving average is a cause for concern, according to
7646:
3800:
1904:
A narrowing labor differential between those who think jobs are plentiful versus those who think they are hard to get, as measured by the
8051:
5741:
3317:
6480:
6106:
5713:
Are Aastveit, Knut; Anundsen, André K.; Herstad, Eyo I. (October–December 2019). "Residential investment and recession predictability".
9352:
9299:
7104:
5577:
4771:
1134:
7728:
7515:
4971:
3350:
1252:, although some argue that their causes and cures can be different. As an informal shorthand, economists sometimes refer to different
5875:
4595:
9210:
8817:
3276:
2774:
1713:
The U.S. Conference Board's Present Situation Index year-over-year change turns negative by more than 15 points before a recession.
1196:
8822:
8613:
8158:
7353:
5772:
5114:
3065:
2952:
2872:
2796:
2732:
Another recession came at the beginning of the 1990s as the result of a major stock collapse in October 1987, referred to now as
2270:
of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.
2212:, the model developed by economist Jonathan H. Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the
8072:
1404:
Krugman discussed the balance sheet recession concept in 2010, agreeing with Koo's situation assessment and view that sustained
9188:
8920:
8915:
8910:
8904:
8274:
7441:
6433:
Ulatan, Jeffrey (3 July 2020). "2020 Recession Signals, After US-Iran Airstrike. Vanguard ETF Best Performing Funds for 2020".
4642:"Seeking Alpha | Take Me To Your Leader: Analyzing The Latest Leading Indicators | by −1.9% | 24 September 2019"
4332:
3970:
3763:
3622:
2624:, could be another example, since they disrupt the global supply chain or prevent the movement of goods, services, and people.
2463:
2406:. Strategies favored for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow.
1613:: Unsustainable rapid increases in asset prices due to excessive risk-taking, characterized by exaggerated optimism during the
384:
160:
6355:
6197:
5924:
5234:
3379:
9193:
8722:
7859:
7540:
7286:
7173:
6922:
6893:
6866:
6837:
5993:
5791:
5052:
4305:
4268:
4252:
4197:
4036:
3945:
3741:
3138:
1841:
can signal potential early economic weakness if transportation stocks are underperforming while industrial stocks are rising.
986:
8198:
6726:"'Something has been changing': Why a top economist is still worried about a recession even as the US economy keeps growing"
6683:
Lihn, Stephen H. T. (10 August 2019). "Real-time Recession Probability with Hidden Markov Model and Unemployment Momentum".
4655:
9441:
7829:
6168:
4641:
2967:
2528:
2226:
1335:
hire people." Behavioral economics has also explained many psychological biases that may trigger a recession including the
1162:
843:
7777:
2438:
investment. For example, the Trump administration claimed that lower effective tax rates on new investment imposed by the
7802:
5083:
3530:
2129:
measuring of stock market volatility. A high VIX indicates increased market stress, which can precede economic downturns.
7383:
7250:
6614:
6532:"Forecasting of recessions via dynamic probit for time series: replication and extension of Kauppi and Saikkonen (2008)"
5033:
3878:
2724:
The economy had gone into a brief recession in 1961 because of a credit squeeze. Australia was facing a rising level of
9337:
8485:
8338:
8126:
7544:
6910:
6790:
6531:
6288:"A 'Big Data' View of the U.S. Economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago"
4656:"Background on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | 19 September 2019"
2864:
2552:
976:
521:
369:
7881:
1621:), which can lead to a cascade of business failures, significant recessions and worst case depressions and stagnation.
8545:
8023:
3835:
2256:
2042:
999:
7965:
6325:
2524:
market also usually weakens before a recession. However, real estate declines can last much longer than recessions.
2240:
and initial jobless claims. U.S. unemployment index is defined as the difference between the 3-month average of the
2182:, research indicates that the ALI can lead turning points in the business cycle by approximately five to six months.
9183:
8550:
8386:
4745:
4053:
2244:
and the 12-month minimum of the unemployment rate. Unemployment momentum and acceleration with Hidden Markov model.
2217:
1829:
462:
7911:
9401:
8608:
8510:
2940:
1764:
1144: ; a 15% decline in non-agricultural employment; a two-point rise in unemployment to a level of at least 6%.
836:
7991:
6030:
Dwyer, Gerald P.; Devereux, John; Baier, Scott; Tamura, Robert (2013). "Recessions, growth and banking crises".
9135:
8294:
5500:
1891:
indicator below in the overview of recession indicators, which tracks the momentum in the U3 unemployment rate.
7185:
6497:
4615:
4177:
2801:
1237:
wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the
1193:
downturns, enabling policymakers to devise more effective strategies for economic stabilization and recovery.
9163:
8879:
7166:
Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies
6706:
4527:
4450:
3075:
2693:
because of the opposite being found for 2001, the economic state in this year by itself did not qualify as a
2439:
2260:
2241:
2237:
2186:
1716:
The U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator year-over-year change turns negative before a recession.
1694:
1631:
investors are forced to sell off assets to cover their debts, leading to a rapid decline in asset prices and
567:
374:
7380:"Recession Britain: New ESRC report on the impact of recession on people's jobs, businesses and daily lives"
7307:
4488:
1330:, was the first economist to claim that such emotional mindsets significantly affect the economy. Economist
9045:
4574:
4146:
2996:
2009. These forecasts represented significant downward revisions from the forecasts of three months prior.
2956:
2608:
tends to fall in the early stages of a recession, then rises again as weaker firms close. The variation in
2585:
2564:
2514:
2415:
1838:
506:
494:
5328:"A reliable labor-market recession indicator has triggered — but this time it could be bullish for stocks"
4842:
1849:
Trucking Index, the American Trucking Associations' Truck Tonnage Index, the DAT Trendlines index and the
9359:
9141:
9073:
7022:"How Effective is Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound? Identification Through Industry Heterogeneity"
6075:
3010:
2682:
2205:
outperformed other measures at leading recession forecasts with a range of six to nine months in advance.
2173:
2120:
Lowering of asset prices, such as homes and financial assets, or high personal and corporate debt levels.
2021:
1963:
1944:
1733:
1186:
1067:
920:
396:
226:
150:
78:
8221:
7941:
Blake, Aaron (28 July 2022). "What two negative GDP quarters means for 'recession' – and our politics".
9416:
9391:
9246:
9241:
9200:
9168:
8955:
8873:
7602:
7458:
7406:
4972:"The "bloodbath" in America's trucking industry has officially spilled over to the rest of the economy"
2064:
1884:
1850:
1123:
981:
516:
499:
379:
20:
8252:
6415:
6378:
6287:
6243:
5974:
5955:
5856:
5810:
5668:
5558:
5163:
4921:
4902:
4823:
4451:"Recessions are difficult, but stagnant growth could prove more challenging, Stanford economist warns"
3205:
2198:
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N).
1894:
Growing labor market weakness as indicated by a negative three-month average of U.S. nonfarm payrolls.
9436:
9426:
9173:
8416:
8174:
6645:
4115:
3855:
3312:
2717:, but their poor economic states influenced Australia, which depended on them for export, as well as
2004:
Tumbling sales in durable consumer goods, like e.g. new car sales (light vehicles unit retail sales).
1977:
1969:
1430:
867:
401:
7567:"World Economic Outlook (WEO) April 2013: Statistical appendix – Table A1 – Summary of World Output"
7488:
7340:
6995:
6969:
2179:
9326:
9114:
8311:
7021:
5297:"The Sahm Rule has flashed, but there's a simpler recession indicator investors should be watching"
3908:
2960:
2780:
2621:
2020:
Non-residential construction spending (like e.g. offices and industrial plants) as measured by the
1524:
1488:
1442:
1372:
590:
555:
391:
8095:
7219:
6145:
2443:
the increase was a response to oil prices, and investment in other sectors had negligible growth.
2195:
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock) (WEI).
1689:
yield curve inversion in history began in July 2022, as the Federal Reserve sharply increased the
9547:
9431:
9421:
9411:
9406:
9396:
9276:
9271:
9266:
8787:
7566:
7318:
5637:
5607:
5203:
5182:
5132:
4880:
4084:
3937:
Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism
2509:
2459:
1356:
1317:
560:
482:
477:
449:
32:
6773:
6596:
6576:
6457:
6217:
4797:
4541:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of … the Labor Market?
2779:
The most recent recession to affect the United Kingdom was the 2020 recession attributed to the
9178:
9108:
8940:
7635:
6012:
4469:
4431:
4412:
4393:
4374:
4355:
3804:
3553:
3161:
3025:
2714:
2581:
2137:
1453:
or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating
1336:
1249:
1097:
890:
792:
543:
359:
354:
339:
306:
165:
8043:
6854:
6827:
6688:
4295:
3307:
9542:
9364:
9347:
9342:
9331:
9294:
9289:
9283:
8894:
8863:
8761:
8420:
6883:
4024:
3935:
3819:
2895:
2889:
2883:
2544:
2473:
wrote in December 2010 that significant, sustained government spending was necessary because
2192:
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago posts updates of the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI).
1248:
A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession is referred to as an
1174:
1141:
971:
900:
632:
607:
511:
444:
170:
133:
111:
106:
7096:
7039:
6138:"The latest US recession indicator just dropped — and it's a banger (Prepare for the wurst)"
8930:
8775:
4054:"Does He Pass the Test? 'Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises' by Timothy Geithner"
3496:
3340:
3055:
2813:
2394:
2209:
2053:
1991:
1905:
1685:
1288:
1055:
550:
364:
209:
8:
9537:
9029:
8884:
8792:
8744:
8712:
8693:
8440:"Pattern of Macroeconomic Indicators Preceding the End of an American Economic Recession"
8439:
7943:
7255:
3045:
3040:
2924:
economic activity reported for employment, industrial production, and consumer spending.
2733:
2718:
2609:
2588:
which, when subtracted from the actual rate of unemployment, can be used to estimate the
2580:
Unemployment is particularly high during a recession. Many economists working within the
2481:
2435:
2427:
2399:
2221:
adopted and is considered robust. The model, developed by economists Arturo Estrella and
2013:
1664:
1457:
expectations that cause savers to begin spending again. Government stimulus spending and
1450:
1446:
1434:
1210:(OECD) defines a recession as a period of at least two years during which the cumulative
1137:
for two consecutive quarters; a decline in industrial production over a six-month period.
760:
637:
472:
434:
175:
138:
4550:
Jason Bram, Robert Rich, and Joshua Abel ... Conference Board's Present Situation Index
3284:
1527:). Monetary policy changes can influence both the frequency and intensity of recessions.
597:
9514:
9499:
9489:
9469:
9464:
9459:
9454:
9448:
8766:
8734:
8540:
7147:
7077:
6559:
4737:
4214:
3718:
Jiří, Mazurek. "On some issues concerning definition of an economic recession." (2012).
3111:
3090:
2913:
2635:
2448:
2213:
2141:
it reflects reduced economic activity, lower consumer demand, and decreased employment.
1917:
1628:
1618:
1552:
1269:
1265:
1261:
1257:
1118:
712:
439:
406:
344:
8536:
8155:
7202:
A downturn in the property market, especially in turnover (sales) of properties, is a
4858:
9235:
9229:
9223:
8829:
8802:
8739:
8727:
8688:
8657:
8555:
8459:
7169:
7139:
7069:
6918:
6889:
6862:
6833:
6684:
6563:
6551:
5830:"The near-term forward yield spread as a leading indicator: A less distorted mirror,"
5726:
5409:"2 under-the-radar recession signals are flashing red this month, research firm says"
5266:"2 under-the-radar recession signals are flashing red this month, research firm says"
4301:
4248:
4241:
4193:
4032:
3941:
3831:
3737:
3465:
3426:
3387:
3035:
2984:
2105:
1984:
1951:
1728:
Except for the above, there are no known completely reliable predictors. Analysis by
1472:
1449:
as liquidity traps. One remedy to a liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via
1331:
1214:
reaches at least 2% of GDP, and the output gap is at least 1% for at least one year.
953:
915:
787:
775:
732:
577:
572:
296:
221:
7438:
7081:
4741:
4213:
Correia, Isabel; Farhi, Emmanuel; Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Teles, Pedro (August 2012).
3962:
3774:
2484:
believed that government institutions could stimulate aggregate demand in a crisis:
647:
9316:
9311:
9157:
9146:
8807:
8797:
8707:
8667:
8662:
8637:
8632:
8628:
8451:
7059:
7051:
6543:
6438:
6347:
6043:
6039:
5837:
5722:
5543:
5539:
4854:
4729:
4189:
4185:
3227:
3085:
3060:
2676:
2659:
2647:
2628:
2531:(NBER) takes a few months to determine if a peak or trough has occurred in the US.
2452:
2403:
2280:
Table: Overview of predictive recession indicators with a simple threshold at zero
2222:
2084:
1898:
1822:
1729:
1648:
1568:
1405:
1398:
1281:
1253:
1238:
1093:, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.
1081:, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The
1059:
1043:
948:
943:
910:
895:
875:
722:
707:
233:
204:
192:
182:
118:
98:
68:
63:
8438:
Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Soloviev, A. A.; Intriligator, M. D.; Winberg, F. E. (2008).
7855:
7282:
6261:
6057:
5389:
4843:"Average work hours as a leading economic variable in US manufacturing industries"
3255:
3179:
2455:, the government resorts to unconventional monetary policy to stimulate recovery.
1724:
recessions between March 1967 – August 2019, while triggering only 2 false alarms.
9385:
9375:
9125:
9066:
9061:
9055:
8647:
8298:
8194:
8181:
8162:
8091:
8079:
8027:
7522:
7495:
7445:
7360:
7314:
6702:
6582:
6484:
6464:
6204:
5910:
4602:
4547:
4493:
3116:
2933:
2901:
2784:
2762:
2419:
2411:
2402:
favor the use of expansionary macroeconomic policy during recessions to increase
2230:
2113:
1940:
1768:
1754:
Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders.
1706:
1610:
1572:
1385:
1101:
1051:
824:
727:
687:
667:
533:
334:
329:
324:
291:
263:
123:
8524:
7407:"More Workers Complain of Bias on the Job, a Trend Linked to Widespread Layoffs"
1719:
When the CFNAI Diffusion Index drops below the value of −0.35, then there is an
1551:
factors that can cause a recession are plentiful: Besides credit risk like e.g.
8674:
8652:
7773:
7755:
6547:
3596:"The economy may look like it's in recession, but we still don't know for sure"
3070:
2758:
2754:
2474:
2267:
2266:
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month
2162:
1690:
1632:
1584:
1580:
1564:
1548:
1422:
1377:
1340:
1126:
1086:
1082:
1035:
782:
697:
692:
349:
199:
155:
73:
48:
40:
8572:
7806:
3674:
617:
9531:
9102:
9096:
9087:
9081:
9023:
9014:
9005:
8987:
8976:
8964:
8934:
8756:
8463:
7143:
7073:
6555:
6169:"Is a recession coming? Alan Greenspan says the answer is in men's underwear"
5841:
5440:"The unemployment measure you've never heard is flashing a recession warning"
4557:
3469:
3430:
3391:
3015:
2831:
2822:
2689:
growth of 3.0% or less in their view was "equivalent to a global recession".
2560:
2556:
1784:
1698:
1624:
1614:
1604:
1598:
1560:
1519:
1429:
theory that a situation can develop in which interest rates reach near zero (
1389:
1363:
1344:
1321:
1158:
1105:
1074:
905:
717:
702:
677:
662:
657:
652:
627:
622:
286:
248:
145:
8477:
5471:"Stock Market Crash: Expert Warns of 70% Potential Downside for S&P 500"
4941:"Stock Market Crash: Expert Warns of 70% Potential Downside for S&P 500"
4733:
4616:"Gundlach: We don't see a recession on the horizon. But there's bad news..."
4524:"10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity"
4523:
3909:"The Conference Board – Consumer Confidence Survey Press Release – May 2010"
1388:, meaning their assets were worth less than their liabilities. Despite zero
8846:
8839:
8834:
8703:
8698:
8642:
6809:"United States Professional and Business Services: Temporary Help Services"
3030:
2729:
the unemployment level rose and the trade deficit increased significantly.
2702:
2655:
2605:
2548:
2470:
2252:
1702:
1636:
1530:
1513:
1484:
1476:
1458:
1454:
1438:
1393:
1368:
1299:
and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997–1998, although
1182:
1047:
1039:
812:
737:
682:
642:
429:
301:
268:
258:
216:
93:
88:
19:
This article is about a slowdown in economic activity. For other uses, see
8567:
8559:
8020:
7958:
7448:
Kenneth Rogoff, International Monetary Fund, Financial Times, 5 April 2002
6968:
Jahan, Sarwat; Mahmud, Ahmed Saber; Papageorgiou, Chris (September 2014).
6396:
5688:"Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Continued to Trend Down in June"
3994:"Psychological Biases and Errors that led to historic bubbles and crashes"
2638:
in the United States in the 1930s may have extended the Great Depression.
1684:
Recessions are very challenging to predict. While some variables like the
9256:
8812:
8771:
8717:
8563:
6913:. In MacLean, Brian K.; Bougrine, Hassan; Rochon, Louis-Philippe (eds.).
6443:
6416:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
6379:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
6317:
6244:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5975:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5956:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5857:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5811:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5669:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5559:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5164:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
4922:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
4903:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
4824:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
3717:
3280:
3080:
3050:
2521:
2431:
1588:
1556:
1541:
1242:
1234:
1170:
742:
253:
238:
7151:
7127:
6525:
6523:
1943:
less transfer payments. Real median household income is reported by the
9040:
8478:"Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research"
8437:
8165:
6 April 2009. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved 10 March 2020.
7596:
7594:
7064:
6076:"Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey - Comments from survey respondents"
5742:"Forecasting The Next Recession Using The Architectural Billings Index"
4715:"Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators"
4714:
3345:
2976:
2589:
2567:
in the 1960s, said that "I call it a Reagan-Volcker-Carter recession."
2407:
1834:
1576:
1211:
672:
602:
538:
489:
5501:"Income and wealth inequality make recessions worse, research reveals"
5038:
U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics
2975:
additional 156,000 jobs had been lost in September. On 29 April 2008,
1857:
business cycles since 1979 by an average of approximately four months.
8851:
8683:
8679:
8073:
Recession unlikely if US economy gets through next two crucial months
6755:
6520:
3734:
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics-Lessons from Japan's Great Recession
3501:
3020:
2725:
2458:
Gauti B. Eggertsson of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, using a
2423:
2248:
2101:
1888:
1426:
1371:
wrote in 2014 that "the best working hypothesis seems to be that the
1296:
1178:
1027:
770:
612:
128:
83:
8455:
8291:
8030:
Dr. Richard J. Buczynski and Michael Bright, IBISWorld, January 2009
7591:
3818:
Kaur, Rajwant; Sidhu, A.S. (Spring 2012). Sarkar, Siddhartha (ed.).
2547:
is thought to have been caused by the tight-money policy adopted by
2075:
Business confidence surveys and expectations for business condition.
1303:'s eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped.
1066:). There is no official definition of a recession, according to the
7055:
6855:"Monetarism and Friedman's Restatement of Quantity Theory of Money"
6530:
Park, Byeong U.; Simar, Léopold; Zelenyuk, Valentin (15 May 2019).
4215:"Unconventional Fiscal Policy at the Zero Bound: Working Paper 698"
4085:"Presentation by Richard Koo – The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions"
2749:
2686:
2651:
2617:
2507:
Some recessions have been anticipated by stock market declines. In
1815:
1811:
1493:
1300:
1200:
1166:
1096:
Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary
1063:
6477:
6107:"Increased sausage demand could be worrying signal on the economy"
4688:"Grim Stock Signals Piling Up as Wall Street Mulls Recession Odds"
3764:"The world in balance sheet recession: causes, cure, and politics"
2809:
8021:
Economic Crisis: When will it End? IBISWorld Recession Briefing "
6218:"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S."
5053:"Why the inverted yield curve is typically a recession predictor"
4798:"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S."
4556:
This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the
3134:
Encarta World English Dictionary [North American Edition]
2634:, with a negative impact on the wider economy; the suspension of
1241:
as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and
7541:"Global Recession Risk Grows as U.S. "Damage" Spreads. Jan 2008"
7186:"From the subprime to the terrigenous: Recession begins at home"
7128:"Anatomy of the Financial Crisis: Between Keynes and Schumpeter"
6940:"Searching for supply-side effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act"
6774:"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S."
4840:
3852:"Key Indicators 2001: Growth and Change in Asia and the Pacific"
7434:
7432:
7206:
indicator of recession, with a lead time of up to 9 quarters...
3707:. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 2008.
3526:
2631:
2613:
1660:
1639:, who theorized that financial markets are inherently unstable.
1090:
819:
7959:"Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity"
5836:. 2018–055. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
3801:"What is the difference between a recession and a depression?"
3180:"Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement January 7, 2008"
2495:
Anatomy of the Financial Crisis: Between Keynes and Schumpeter
1972:, confidence surveys like the index of consumer expectations (
8278:
7912:"Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions"
7489:"IMF Predicts Slower World Growth Amid Serious Market Crisis"
5034:"Research Confirms Transportation Index as Leading Indicator"
4510:"US yield curve nears flip with jury out on recession signal"
1962:
Decline in wholesale/retail sales, which are reported by the
1312:
1292:
411:
187:
7882:"Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021"
7429:
6961:
5994:"Predicting a Bear Market: 7 Signs and Why it's Tough to Do"
5792:"Predicting a Bear Market: 7 Signs and Why it's Tough to Do"
3623:"What exactly is a recession? Sorting out a confusing topic"
6915:
Aggregate Demand and Employment: International Perspectives
5876:"Yield curve disinversion is the recession signal to watch"
5712:
3820:"Global Recession and Its Impact on Foreign Trade in India"
3573:"'Technical Recession' Sets Up Washington War of the Words"
3197:
2451:
reaches the boundary of an interest rate of 0%, called the
1933:
1751:
Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.
1740:
However, the following are considered possible predictors:
8094:; Andrews, Edmund L.; Labaton, Stephen (6 December 2008).
7964:. NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. 11 December 2008.
7636:"World Economic Outlook – April 2009: Crisis and Recovery"
2117:
market uncertainty and that a recession is on the horizon.
2083:
The value of debit balances in broker-dealers’ securities
1779:
Factory output, including factories, mines, and utilities.
7487:
Lall, Subir. International Monetary Fund, 9 April 2008.
7040:"What Fiscal Policy Is Effective at Zero Interest Rates?"
5913:
JPMorgan | The US Economic Outlook | Feb. 2020 | Page 22]
4243:
The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008
4212:
2126:
2095:
1652:
1078:
8361:"Fourth quarter 2008 Survey of Professional Forecasters"
7805:. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Archived from
6826:
Stiglitz, Joseph E.; Ocampo, José Antonio, eds. (2008).
6397:"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)"
6029:
4772:"Leading Economic Indicators and the Oncoming Recession"
2067:
deficit typically worsens strongly ahead of a recession.
1837:, which says that a divergence between the DJTA and the
8363:. Philadelphiafed.org. 17 November 2008. Archived from
8090:
7774:"UK officially in recession for first time in 11 years"
6967:
6911:"Chapter 1: Macroeconomic lessons from the past decade"
6542:(1). Springer Science and Business Media LLC: 379–392.
3341:"An economist explains: What to know about a recession"
2654:
are less affected by recessions than those who rely on
1465:
8339:"U.S. Economy Contracts Most Since the 2001 Recession"
7382:. Economic and Social Research Council. Archived from
6987:
5925:"Jeffrey Gundlach: 6 Signs Recession Is Near, or Here"
5828:
Engstrom, Eric C.; Sharpe, Steven A. (February 2019).
5235:"Jeffrey Gundlach: 6 Signs Recession Is Near, or Here"
4712:
1659:
Decline in external demand: For countries with strong
1208:
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
1106:
increasing government spending and decreasing taxation
1042:). This may be triggered by various events, such as a
7676:, Australian Bureau of Statistics, 27 February 1998,
6885:
Bucking The Deficit: Economic Policymaking In America
6198:
Leading Economic Indicators Suggest U.S. In Recession
5578:"An Economic Warning Sign: RV Shipments Are Slipping"
3650:"Yes, there is an official definition of a recession"
2971:
their pension savings decimated on the stock market.
2559:
took office. Reagan supported that policy. Economist
1324:
factors underlying economic activity. Keynes, in his
1102:
increasing money supply and decreasing interest rates
8096:"U.S. Loses 533,000 Jobs in Biggest Drop Since 1974"
7363:
p. 1. The Saylor Foundation. Retrieved 20 June 2012.
6595:
Estrella, Arturo; Mishkin, Frederic S. (June 1996).
6013:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4470:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4432:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4413:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4394:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4375:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4356:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
3876:
3675:"Recession | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)"
3554:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
3162:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
1860:
Light truck sales are seen as a recession predictor.
1709:, to try to predict the possibility of a recession:
1327:
The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
8275:"Fragile economy improves but not out of woods yet"
7451:
6819:
6597:"The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions"
4319:
4317:
3495:Lakshman, Achuthan; Banerji, Anirvan (7 May 2008).
2805:
Recessions in the United States – 1930 through 2021
2616:, which may create a mini-recession in the region.
2373:
Retail Indicator: Decline In Wholesale/Retail Sales
2165:
to see men’s underwear as a key economic predictor.
1647:Adverse events: Unexpected major world events like
7797:
7795:
6938:Gale, William G.; Haldeman, Claire (6 July 2021).
4489:"Why everyone was so wrong about the 2023 economy"
4240:
3991:
3927:
3419:"U.S. to Broaden the Base Of Consumer Price Index"
2434:economists promote tax cuts to stimulate business
2098:is a critical commodity input for many industries.
1635:. This term is named after the American economist
8184:CNN/Money. 3 April 2009. Retrieved 10 March 2020.
6994:Jahan, Sarwat; Papageorgiou, Chris (March 2014).
6993:
6931:
6529:
4287:
4206:
2912:Since then, the NBER has also declared a 2-month
9529:
7630:
7628:
7543:. Bloomberg L.P. 28 January 2008. Archived from
7251:"Recession Predictions and Investment Decisions"
6654:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
5529:
4325:"A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers"
4314:
4220:. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. p. 1
3306:Bonham, Mark S.; Poulin, Jessica (6 July 2023).
2627:Recessions have also provided opportunities for
8387:"Text of the NBER's statement on the recession"
7792:
7031:
6970:"What Is Keynesian Economics? – Back to Basics"
6594:
4596:Consumer Confidence Drops – Why Does It Matter?
4269:"How Much of the World is in a Liquidity Trap?"
3934:Akerlof, George A.; Shiller, Robert J. (2010).
3494:
2783:global pandemic, the first recession since the
1974:University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
1483:In April 2009, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair
1475:and can cause or deepen a recession. Economist
7013:
6825:
5922:
5827:
5232:
5190:New York University's Stern School of Business
4888:New York University's Stern School of Business
4329:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco speeches
4169:
3933:
2012:Housing starts and construction, specifically
8594:
7625:
6875:
6829:Capital Market Liberalization and Development
6318:"Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock)"
6010:
4467:
4429:
4410:
4391:
4372:
4353:
4293:
4184:. Palgrave Macmillan UK. pp. 7929–7936.
3811:
3551:
3159:
3137:. Microsoft Corporation. 2007. Archived from
2356:Employment Indicator: Temporary Help Services
2185:The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas posts the
1523:leading to a recession (creating a so called
1275:
1161:, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the
1007:
844:
8312:"Gross Domestic Product: Third quarter 2008"
7756:"Eurozone recession deepened at end of 2012"
7705:, Melbourne, 2 December 2006, archived from
6937:
6756:"U.S. 10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread"
6487:(March 2006). FEDs Working Paper No. 2006-7.
4271:. Krugman.blogs.nytimes.com. 17 March 2010.
4232:
4147:"Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap"
3701:"OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2008 Issue 2"
3641:
3527:"Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions"
3305:
3271:
3269:
2322:Leading Indicator: US Leading Economic Index
2174:Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (LEI)
1135:Declines in real gross national income (GNI)
7511:
7509:
7507:
7505:
7503:
7377:
7188:. Land Values Research Group. 2 June 2009.
6615:"Labor Model Predicts Lower Recession Odds"
5923:Wisenberg Brin, Dinah (11 September 2024).
5233:Wisenberg Brin, Dinah (11 September 2024).
4294:Lipsey, Richard G.; Harbury, Colin (1992).
3824:International Journal of Afro-Asian Studies
3798:
3727:
3725:
3648:Loe, Megan; Lewis, Brandon (28 July 2022).
3521:
3519:
1978:Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
1140:In terms of depth – A 1.5% decline in real
8601:
8587:
8573:Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
7119:
7097:"Opinion – Block Those Economic Metaphors"
7037:
6902:
6846:
6504:. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2020.
6058:"GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta"
6032:Journal of International Money and Finance
4175:
3940:. Princeton University Press. p. 23.
3757:
3755:
3753:
3458:"Recession: Some Criteria Missing, So Far"
2963:significantly contributed to a recession.
2943:details the many elements of this period.
2339:Employment Indicator: Full Time Employment
2305:Yield Curve Indicator: 10y-3m Yield Spread
2187:Texas Index of Leading Economic Indicators
2008:Housing and non-residential construction:
1350:
1014:
1000:
851:
837:
8124:
7830:"It's official: Recession since Dec. '07"
7516:Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies
7378:Vaitilingam, Romesh (17 September 2009).
7063:
7019:
6646:"Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals"
6478:The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions
6442:
6011:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
5437:
5051:Smith, Stacey Vanek (12 September 2024).
4841:Stuart M. Glosser, Lonnie Golden (1997).
4507:
4468:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4430:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4411:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4392:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4373:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4354:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
3817:
3736:. John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd.
3552:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
3266:
3160:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
1085:has adopted a similar definition. In the
8575:The National Bureau Of Economic Research
7858:. BBC News – Business. 29 October 2009.
7559:
7500:
7373:
7371:
7369:
6881:
6498:"The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator"
6166:
6135:
5873:
5325:
4448:
4300:. Oxford University Press. p. 294.
4182:The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
4016:
3722:
3647:
3620:
3529:. National Bureau of Economic Research.
3516:
2808:
2800:
2775:List of recessions in the United Kingdom
1663:sectors, a decline in demand from major
1306:
8444:Journal of Pattern Recognition Research
8336:
8219:
8041:
7827:
7733:, Australian Broadcasting Corporation,
7404:
7217:
7094:
7038:Eggertsson, Gauti B. (1 January 2011).
6917:. Edward Elgar Publishing. p. 29.
6401:FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6352:FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6348:"Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities"
6322:FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6104:
5991:
5834:Finance and Economics Discussion Series
5789:
5468:
5406:
5356:
5263:
5081:
4938:
4238:
4144:
4113:
4051:
3960:
3911:. Conference-board.org. 25 March 2010.
3750:
3667:
3377:
3066:List of recessions in the United States
2953:United States housing market correction
2797:List of recessions in the United States
2388:
2255:, was published in October 2019 by the
1999:personal consumption expenditure growth
1830:Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA)
1500:
9530:
8421:"Daniel Gross: The Recession is Over?"
7803:"Percent change from preceding period"
7535:
7533:
7531:
7405:Rampell, Catherine (11 January 2011).
7331:Church, George J. (23 November 1981).
7330:
6996:"What Is Monetarism? – Back to Basics"
6432:
6413:
6376:
6241:
5972:
5953:
5935:from the original on 17 September 2024
5854:
5808:
5770:
5739:
5666:
5556:
5450:from the original on 28 September 2024
5438:Goldstein, Steve (18 September 2024).
5419:from the original on 28 September 2024
5276:from the original on 28 September 2024
5245:from the original on 17 September 2024
5180:
5161:
5112:
5094:from the original on 13 September 2024
5084:"How Bad Is The U.S. Economy In 2019?"
5063:from the original on 13 September 2024
4919:
4900:
4878:
4821:
4769:
4622:from the original on 25 September 2019
3961:Shiller, Robert J. (27 January 2009).
3792:
3570:
3338:
1945:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
1767:(Manufacturing Services, Chicago) and
1487:discussed these paradoxes: "Once this
1046:, an external trade shock, an adverse
161:Measures of national income and output
8582:
8534:
8415:
8397:from the original on 14 November 2010
8337:Chandra, Shobhana (30 October 2008).
8246:
7951:
7940:
7726:
7652:from the original on 31 December 2010
7613:from the original on 28 February 2019
7600:
7469:from the original on 21 February 2009
7366:
7248:
7125:
6908:
6852:
6736:from the original on 1 September 2024
6023:
5752:from the original on 29 November 2022
5575:
5511:from the original on 13 December 2019
5481:from the original on 1 September 2024
5387:
5050:
5014:from the original on 13 December 2019
4951:from the original on 1 September 2024
4082:
4029:Reader's Guide to the Social Sciences
3973:from the original on 11 February 2020
3877:Samuelson, Robert J. (14 June 2010).
3250:
3248:
987:Industrialization in the Soviet Union
8127:"U.S. lost 2.6 million jobs in 2008"
8002:from the original on 7 December 2017
7989:
7680:from the original on 16 October 2015
7289:from the original on 2 February 2008
6861:. S. Chand Publishing. p. 527.
6791:"United States Full Time Employment"
6682:
6643:
6601:The Federal Reserve Bank of New York
5715:International Journal of Forecasting
5407:Cloonan, Kelly (25 September 2024).
5264:Cloonan, Kelly (25 September 2024).
4982:from the original on 8 February 2020
4847:International Journal of Forecasting
4605:Forbes. 27 June 2019. Brad McMillan.
4486:
4064:from the original on 5 November 2015
4022:
3879:"Our economy's crisis of confidence"
3762:Koo, Richard C. (12 December 2011).
3455:
3416:
2529:National Bureau of Economic Research
2276:Simple Recession Indicator Tracker:
2227:National Bureau of Economic Research
2060:The S&P 500 and BBB bond spread.
1466:Paradoxes of thrift and deleveraging
1163:National Bureau of Economic Research
8318:from the original on 14 August 2018
8228:from the original on 6 October 2013
8201:from the original on 6 October 2009
8125:Uchitelle, Louis (9 January 2009).
8054:from the original on 11 August 2019
8044:"Employment Falls for Second Month"
8042:Andrews, Edmund L. (7 March 2008).
7836:from the original on 14 August 2021
7780:from the original on 12 August 2020
7528:
7168:, 3rd, New York: McGraw-Hill, 388.
7107:from the original on 20 August 2019
7020:Skaperdas, Arsenios (7 July 2017).
6723:
6625:from the original on 19 August 2020
6179:from the original on 29 August 2024
6117:from the original on 29 August 2024
6086:from the original on 29 August 2024
6062:The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
5886:from the original on 30 August 2024
5648:from the original on 24 August 2024
5618:from the original on 24 August 2024
5469:Edwards, William (31 August 2024).
5369:from the original on 29 August 2024
5338:from the original on 29 August 2024
5307:from the original on 27 August 2024
5294:
5214:from the original on 24 August 2024
5143:from the original on 24 August 2024
4969:
4939:Edwards, William (31 August 2024).
4690:. Bloomberg L.P. 25 November 2018.
4335:from the original on 5 January 2013
3761:
3731:
3681:. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2022
3593:
3378:Shiskin, Julius (1 December 1974).
3353:from the original on 14 August 2024
3320:from the original on 23 August 2024
1839:Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
13:
8905:British credit crisis of 1772–1773
8251:. Clevelandfed.org. Archived from
7971:from the original on 19 April 2009
7892:from the original on 26 April 2022
7828:Isidore, Chris (1 December 2008).
7283:"Economy puts Republicans at risk"
7220:"Why Home Prices May Keep Falling"
7218:Shiller, Robert J. (6 June 2009).
7095:Krugman, Paul (13 December 2010).
6664:from the original on 31 March 2020
6223:from the original on 4 August 2024
6167:Goodkind, Nicole (26 March 2022).
6136:Ashworth, Louis (27 August 2024).
6080:The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
5694:from the original on 4 August 2024
5357:Edwards, William (3 August 2024).
4803:from the original on 4 August 2024
4778:from the original on 4 August 2024
4722:Review of Economics and Statistics
4618:Yahoo! Finance. 14 February 2019.
4508:Barbuscia, Davide (29 July 2024).
4449:Cochrane, John (7 December 2022).
4275:from the original on 24 April 2020
4157:from the original on 21 April 2021
4145:Krugman, Paul (18 November 2010).
4126:from the original on 15 April 2021
3992:How to be an Adult (13 May 2020).
3889:from the original on 26 March 2020
3497:"The risk of redefining recession"
3417:Dale, Edwin L. Jr (6 April 1974).
3398:from the original on 25 March 2020
3245:
3208:from the original on 29 April 2022
2946:
2857: Effective Federal Funds Rate
2517:were not followed by a recession.
2426:economists may advocate increased
2169:Overview of recession indicators:
977:Economic history of the Arab world
14:
9559:
8618:Commonwealth of Nations countries
8546:Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
8504:
8488:from the original on 2 March 2021
8220:Goldman, David (9 January 2009).
8175:2 million jobs lost so far in '09
8137:from the original on 1 March 2020
8106:from the original on 9 April 2009
7922:from the original on 29 July 2022
7862:from the original on 28 July 2020
7459:"The world economy Bad, or worse"
7417:from the original on 23 July 2016
7263:from the original on 28 July 2020
7249:Sloan, Allan (11 December 2007).
7192:from the original on 12 June 2009
6328:from the original on 19 July 2021
5740:Mackie, Kevin (7 December 2018).
5576:Raice, Shayndi (19 August 2019).
4751:from the original on 6 April 2020
4694:from the original on 4 March 2020
4004:from the original on 28 July 2020
3915:from the original on 3 March 2020
3629:from the original on 27 July 2022
3602:from the original on 28 July 2022
3533:from the original on 5 March 2020
3476:from the original on 27 July 2022
3437:from the original on 27 July 2022
3220:
3190:
2768:
2743:
2650:of people dependent on wages and
2641:
2180:Euro Area Leading Indicator (ALI)
2153:Unorthodox Recession Indicators:
2043:Receiver Operating Characteristic
2022:Architecture Billings Index (ABI)
1416:
1221:instead of decline of total GDP.
8551:Library of Economics and Liberty
8470:
8431:
8409:
8379:
8353:
8330:
8304:
8285:
8277:. Yahoo! Finance. Archived from
8267:
8247:Meyer, Brent (16 October 2008).
8240:
8213:
8187:
8168:
8149:
8118:
8084:
8066:
8035:
8014:
7990:Izzo, Phil (20 September 2010).
7983:
7934:
7904:
7874:
7848:
7821:
7766:
7748:
7737:from the original on 3 June 2020
7720:
7691:
7664:
7579:from the original on 25 May 2013
7481:
7398:
7347:
7324:
7301:
7275:
7242:
7230:from the original on 3 July 2020
7211:
7178:
7158:
7088:
6801:
6783:
6766:
6748:
6717:
6695:
6676:
6637:
6607:
6588:
6570:
6508:from the original on 14 May 2017
6490:
6470:
6451:
6426:
6407:
6389:
6370:
6340:
6310:
6298:from the original on 28 May 2020
6280:
6254:
6235:
6210:
6191:
6160:
6129:
6105:Harring, Alex (26 August 2024).
6098:
6068:
6050:
6004:
5985:
5966:
5947:
5916:
5898:
5867:
5848:
5821:
5802:
5783:
5764:
5733:
5727:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.09.008
5685:
5588:from the original on 8 June 2020
5388:Payne, Charles (7 August 2024).
5082:Conerly, Bill (15 August 2019).
4668:from the original on 14 May 2020
4551:
4487:Peck, Emily (22 December 2023).
4114:Krugman, Paul (17 August 2010).
4083:White, Gregory (14 April 2010).
3963:"Animal Spirits Depend on Trust"
3621:Jacobsen, Louis (26 July 2022).
3456:Silk, Leonard (28 August 1974).
3339:Deveau, Denise (3 August 2022).
2916:for February 2020 – April 2020.
2790:
2534:
2218:Federal Reserve Bank of New York
2079:Margin of stock market traders:
1197:Recessions in the United Kingdom
818:
806:
47:
8614:recessions in the United States
8222:"Worst year for jobs since '45"
8156:Unemployment rate in March 2009
7317:Prepared by: Democratic staff,
6724:Fox, Matthew (31 August 2024).
6703:"Sahm Rule Recession Indicator"
6458:Grading Bonds on Inverted Curve
6420:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
6383:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
6358:from the original on 2 May 2020
6248:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5979:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5960:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5874:McGeever, Jamie (5 June 2024).
5861:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5815:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5706:
5679:
5673:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5660:
5630:
5600:
5569:
5563:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5550:
5523:
5493:
5462:
5431:
5400:
5381:
5350:
5326:Adinolfi, Joseph (7 May 2024).
5319:
5295:Fox, Matthew (26 August 2024).
5288:
5257:
5226:
5196:
5174:
5168:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5155:
5125:
5106:
5075:
5044:
5026:
4994:
4963:
4932:
4926:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
4913:
4907:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
4894:
4872:
4834:
4828:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
4815:
4790:
4763:
4713:A Estrella, FS Mishkin (1995).
4706:
4680:
4648:
4634:
4608:
4589:
4563:
4534:
4516:
4501:
4480:
4461:
4442:
4423:
4404:
4385:
4366:
4347:
4261:
4247:. W.W. Norton Company Limited.
4138:
4107:
4095:from the original on 5 May 2021
4076:
4045:
3985:
3954:
3901:
3870:
3844:
3830:(1). Universal-Publishers: 62.
3711:
3693:
3614:
3587:
3564:
3545:
3488:
3449:
3410:
3371:
3365:
3332:
3256:"Q&A: What is a recession?"
2941:timeline of the Great Recession
2575:
2570:
2502:
2497:, Economic and Political Weekly
1885:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
1851:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
8195:"Employment Situation Summary"
7727:Janda, Michael (3 June 2020),
7673:Australian Economic Indicators
7439:The Recession that Almost Was.
6266:Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
6044:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.05.009
5992:Schmidt, Dan (17 April 2024).
5790:Schmidt, Dan (17 April 2024).
5544:10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.038
4190:10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_2482
4052:Krugman, Paul (10 July 2014).
3571:Anstey, Chris (28 July 2022).
3299:
3228:"The CEPR and NBER Approaches"
3172:
3153:
3124:
3117:Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary
3104:
2236:The three-month change in the
1879:Decreasing payroll employment.
1320:has been used to describe the
1111:
766:Publications in macroeconomics
1:
8292:Why it's worse than you think
7992:"Recession Over in June 2009"
7856:"US economy out of recession"
7699:"Reasons for 1990s Recession"
7132:Economic and Political Weekly
6707:Federal Reserve Economic Data
4859:10.1016/S0169-2070(96)00725-X
4528:Federal Reserve Economic Data
4297:First Principles of Economics
4176:Eggertsson, Gauti B. (2018).
4027:. In Michie, Jonathan (ed.).
3799:Saul Eslake (November 2008).
3097:
3076:Stock market crashes in India
2927:
2440:Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
2261:Federal Reserve Economic Data
2216:. Another model developed by
1679:
1651:and geopolitical events like
1471:simultaneously is called the
1224:
7603:"What's a Global Recession?"
7601:Davis, Bob (22 April 2009).
6644:Sahm, Claudia (6 May 2019).
3277:"Glossary of Treasury terms"
2957:United States housing bubble
2708:
2586:natural rate of unemployment
2565:Council of Economic Advisers
2515:Dow Jones Industrial Average
1217:Recession can be defined as
7:
9360:1997 Asian financial crisis
8993:Civil War-era United States
8535:Moore, Geoffrey H. (2002).
7776:. The BBC. 12 August 2020.
6832:. OUP Oxford. p. 360.
6017:International Monetary Fund
5183:"Business-Cycle Indicators"
5002:"Cass Freight Index Report"
4881:"Business-Cycle Indicators"
4474:International Monetary Fund
4436:International Monetary Fund
4417:International Monetary Fund
4398:International Monetary Fund
4379:International Monetary Fund
4360:International Monetary Fund
4025:"Accounting, balance sheet"
3771:Real-World Economics Review
3558:International Monetary Fund
3166:International Monetary Fund
3011:1991 Indian economic crisis
3003:
2851: 3 month Treasury Bond
2839: 10 Year Treasury Bond
2683:International Monetary Fund
2600:
2410:, exemplified by economist
1734:International Monetary Fund
1187:Bureau of Economic Analysis
10:
9564:
9136:Post–World War I recession
8956:Post-Napoleonic Depression
7164:Siegel, Jeremy J. (2002).
7044:NBER Macroeconomics Annual
6882:Thornton, Saranna (2018).
6548:10.1007/s00181-019-01708-2
3594:Cox, Jeff (28 July 2022).
2931:
2896:March 2001 – November 2001
2845: 2 Year Treasury Bond
2816:correlation to recessions
2794:
2772:
2674:
2665:
2430:to spark economic growth.
2392:
2263:(FRED). It is defined as:
2214:Fed's overnight funds rate
2145:GDP per capita contraction
1380:as it pays down its debt.
1354:
1279:
1276:Type of recession or shape
1124:Bureau of Labor Statistics
982:Economy of the Inca Empire
517:New neoclassical synthesis
500:Real business-cycle theory
21:Recession (disambiguation)
18:
16:Business cycle contraction
9374:
9310:
9255:
9209:
9124:
9046:2nd Industrial Revolution
9039:
8986:
8979:(1836–1838 and 1839–1843)
8895:1st Industrial Revolution
8893:
8862:
8663:Price-and-wage stickiness
8624:
8525:Resources in your library
8301:, 16 June 2008, Newsweek.
7359:12 September 2012 at the
7333:"Ready for a Real Downer"
6977:Finance & Development
6888:. Routledge. p. 30.
5638:"Recessionary Indicators"
5608:"Recessionary Indicators"
5204:"Recessionary Indicators"
5133:"Recessionary Indicators"
4031:. Routledge. p. 11.
3854:. ADB.org. Archived from
3313:The Canadian Encyclopedia
2902:December 2007 – June 2009
2884:July 1981 – November 1982
2670:
2414:, would favor the use of
2257:St. Louis Federal Reserve
1695:2021–2023 inflation surge
1605:Interest rate distortions
1431:zero interest-rate policy
1219:decline of GDP per capita
9327:1990s United States boom
9115:Financial crisis of 1914
8197:. Bls.gov. 2 July 2010.
7494:28 February 2009 at the
7444:12 December 2008 at the
7285:. BBC. 29 January 2008.
7126:Nayak, Pulin B. (2009).
5842:10.17016/FEDS.2018.055r1
5773:"Bear Market Indicators"
5115:"Bear Market Indicators"
4853:(2). Elsevier: 175–195.
4116:"Notes On Koo (Wonkish)"
4058:New York Review of Books
3773:(58): 19. Archived from
3131:"Recession definition".
2961:subprime mortgage crisis
2823:30 year mortgage average
2765:economies all affected.
2251:, named after economist
2249:Sahm Recession Indicator
2133:Gross Domestic Product:
1667:can trigger a recession.
522:Saltwater and freshwater
9142:Depression of 1920–1921
9074:Depression of 1882–1885
8988:Early Victorian Britain
8723:Real and nominal values
8180:11 January 2020 at the
7996:The Wall Street Journal
7607:The Wall Street Journal
7319:Senate Budget Committee
7313:4 February 2011 at the
7003:Finance and Development
6619:The Wall Street Journal
5909:6 December 2020 at the
5582:The Wall Street Journal
4734:10.1162/003465398557320
3967:The Wall Street Journal
2879:considered recessions:
2510:Stocks for the Long Run
2071:Business Expectations:
1775:Industrial Production:
1357:Balance sheet recession
1351:Balance sheet recession
1133:In terms of duration –
882:Particular histories of
450:International economics
375:Overlapping generations
9247:Recession of 1969–1970
9242:Recession of 1960–1961
9201:Recession of 1937–1938
8297:1 October 2009 at the
8078:12 August 2011 at the
7645:. IMF. 24 April 2009.
7572:. IMF. 16 April 2013.
7521:9 January 2020 at the
6414:Kelley, David (2019).
6377:Kelley, David (2019).
6242:Kelley, David (2019).
5973:Kelley, David (2019).
5954:Kelley, David (2019).
5855:Kelley, David (2019).
5809:Kelley, David (2019).
5667:Kelley, David (2019).
5557:Kelley, David (2019).
5181:Backus, David (2024).
5162:Kelley, David (2019).
4920:Kelley, David (2019).
4901:Kelley, David (2019).
4879:Backus, David (2024).
4822:Kelley, David (2019).
4239:Krugman, Paul (2009).
2955:(a consequence of the
2890:July 1990 – March 1991
2875:
2806:
2584:argue that there is a
2500:
2272:
2127:Volatility Index (VIX)
1876:Decreasing job growth.
1823:Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
1686:(inverted) yield curve
1337:availability heuristic
1122:, Commissioner of the
1098:macroeconomic policies
793:Mathematical economics
544:Modern monetary theory
307:Universal basic income
9365:Early 2000s recession
9332:Early 1990s recession
9284:Early 1980s recession
8864:Commercial revolution
8762:Nominal interest rate
8484:. 20 September 2010.
8161:6 August 2020 at the
6581:19 March 2020 at the
6476:Wright, Jonathan H.,
6262:"Texas Leading Index"
4601:18 March 2020 at the
4023:Jupe, Robert (2014).
3732:Koo, Richard (2009).
3308:"Recession in Canada"
2832:30 Year Treasury Bond
2814:Inverted yield curves
2812:
2804:
2582:neoclassical paradigm
2553:Federal Reserve Board
2486:
2264:
1970:Consumer expectations
1721:increased probability
1489:massive credit crunch
1392:and expansion of the
1307:Psychological aspects
1289:double-dip recessions
1175:industrial production
1142:gross national income
1116:In a 1974 article by
1050:, the bursting of an
972:Economic antisemitism
633:Wesley Clair Mitchell
608:Thomas Robert Malthus
445:Development economics
8931:Copper Panic of 1789
7730:Australian Recession
6853:Ahuja, H.L. (2019).
6777:The Conference Board
6483:28 July 2020 at the
5771:Fisher, Ken (2024).
5113:Fisher, Ken (2024).
4770:Ozyildirim, Ataman.
4728:. MIT Press: 45–61.
3056:Hindu rate of growth
2400:Keynesian economists
2395:Stabilization policy
2389:Government responses
2210:inverted yield curve
2054:inverted yield curve
1992:recreational vehicle
1757:Manufacturing sales.
1501:Causes of recessions
370:Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans
210:Liquidity preference
9267:1973–1975 recession
9211:Post–WWII expansion
8885:Great Frost of 1709
8713:Neutrality of money
8694:Classical dichotomy
8610:Economic expansions
8541:Henderson, David R.
8393:. 1 December 2008.
8026:14 May 2011 at the
7944:The Washington Post
7762:. 14 February 2013.
7643:Box 1.1 (pp. 11–14)
7256:The Washington Post
6909:Mason, J.W (2020).
6859:Macroeconomics, 20e
6621:. 28 January 2008.
6536:Empirical Economics
6354:. 1 February 1967.
6203:6 July 2009 at the
5040:. 15 December 2017.
4546:14 May 2020 at the
4455:Stanford University
3883:The Washington Post
3046:Flooding the market
3041:Economic stagnation
2968:2007–2009 recession
2719:foreign investments
2489:multiplier process.
2482:John Maynard Keynes
2475:indebted households
2428:government spending
2291:Recession Threshold
2288:Recession Indicator
2281:
1864:Corporate Profits:
1791:Chemical Activity:
1537:Financial factors:
1451:quantitative easing
1447:Japan's lost decade
1443:U.S. 2009 recession
1435:pushing on a string
1250:economic depression
1054:, or a large-scale
825:Business portal
761:Macroeconomic model
638:John Maynard Keynes
435:Economic statistics
380:General equilibrium
9449:COVID-19 recession
9109:Panic of 1910–1911
8941:Panic of 1796–1797
8767:Real interest rate
8735:Economic expansion
8131:The New York Times
8100:The New York Times
8048:The New York Times
7525:IMF. January 2009.
7465:. 9 October 2008.
7411:The New York Times
7308:The Bush Recession
7224:The New York Times
7101:The New York Times
6463:7 May 2019 at the
6444:10.7910/DVN/AWWQPN
6324:. 5 January 2008.
6082:. 26 August 2024.
5777:Fisher Investments
5119:Fisher Investments
4120:The New York Times
3780:on 10 January 2020
3462:The New York Times
3423:The New York Times
3384:The New York Times
3287:on 2 November 2012
3120:. Merriam-Webster.
3091:COVID-19 recession
2914:COVID-19 recession
2876:
2807:
2636:competition policy
2563:, chairman of the
2551:, chairman of the
2449:federal funds rate
2279:
1964:U.S. Census Bureau
1918:David Blanchflower
1619:stock market crash
1553:concentration risk
1509:Economic factors:
1119:The New York Times
963:Prominent examples
713:Edward C. Prescott
440:Monetary economics
9525:
9524:
9236:Recession of 1958
9230:Recession of 1953
9224:Recession of 1949
8921:Thirteen Colonies
8728:Velocity of money
8658:Paradox of thrift
8511:Library resources
8255:on 5 October 2008
7809:on 14 August 2018
7386:on 2 January 2010
7354:Unemployment Rate
7343:on 23 April 2008.
7174:978-0-07-137048-6
6924:978-1-78643-205-6
6895:978-0-429-97052-8
6868:978-93-5283-732-8
6839:978-0-19-923058-7
6467:By Michael Hudson
6435:Harvard Dataverse
6148:on 29 August 2024
6064:. 10 August 2024.
5532:World Development
4970:Premack, Rachel.
4331:. 16 April 2009.
4307:978-0-297-82120-5
4254:978-0-393-07101-6
4199:978-1-349-95189-5
4038:978-1-135-93226-8
3947:978-1-4008-3472-3
3743:978-0-470-82494-8
3705:oecd-ilibrary.org
3186:. 7 January 2008.
3036:Economic collapse
2985:unemployment rate
2681:According to the
2543:For example, the
2386:
2385:
2376:YoY change < 0
2359:YoY change < 0
2342:YoY change < 0
2325:YoY change < 0
2242:unemployment rate
2238:unemployment rate
2106:consumer spending
1985:consumer spending
1952:income inequality
1928:Personal Income:
1818:volumes of goods.
1649:natural disasters
1599:Credit tightening
1473:paradox of thrift
1332:Robert J. Shiller
1024:
1023:
861:
860:
788:Political economy
743:N. Gregory Mankiw
733:Thomas J. Sargent
578:Market monetarism
392:Endogenous growth
222:National accounts
9555:
9317:Great Regression
9312:Great Moderation
9158:Great Depression
9147:Roaring Twenties
8668:Underconsumption
8638:Effective demand
8629:Aggregate demand
8603:
8596:
8589:
8580:
8579:
8554:
8549:(1st ed.).
8498:
8497:
8495:
8493:
8474:
8468:
8467:
8435:
8429:
8428:
8419:(13 July 2009).
8413:
8407:
8406:
8404:
8402:
8383:
8377:
8376:
8374:
8372:
8357:
8351:
8350:
8348:
8346:
8334:
8328:
8327:
8325:
8323:
8308:
8302:
8289:
8283:
8282:
8271:
8265:
8264:
8262:
8260:
8244:
8238:
8237:
8235:
8233:
8217:
8211:
8210:
8208:
8206:
8191:
8185:
8172:
8166:
8153:
8147:
8146:
8144:
8142:
8122:
8116:
8115:
8113:
8111:
8092:Uchitelle, Louis
8088:
8082:
8070:
8064:
8063:
8061:
8059:
8039:
8033:
8018:
8012:
8011:
8009:
8007:
7987:
7981:
7980:
7978:
7976:
7970:
7963:
7955:
7949:
7948:
7938:
7932:
7931:
7929:
7927:
7908:
7902:
7901:
7899:
7897:
7888:. 19 July 2021.
7878:
7872:
7871:
7869:
7867:
7852:
7846:
7845:
7843:
7841:
7825:
7819:
7818:
7816:
7814:
7799:
7790:
7789:
7787:
7785:
7770:
7764:
7763:
7752:
7746:
7745:
7744:
7742:
7724:
7718:
7717:
7716:
7714:
7709:on 12 April 2014
7695:
7689:
7688:
7687:
7685:
7668:
7662:
7661:
7659:
7657:
7651:
7640:
7632:
7623:
7622:
7620:
7618:
7598:
7589:
7588:
7586:
7584:
7578:
7571:
7563:
7557:
7556:
7554:
7552:
7547:on 21 March 2010
7537:
7526:
7513:
7498:
7485:
7479:
7478:
7476:
7474:
7455:
7449:
7436:
7427:
7426:
7424:
7422:
7402:
7396:
7395:
7393:
7391:
7375:
7364:
7351:
7345:
7344:
7339:. Archived from
7328:
7322:
7305:
7299:
7298:
7296:
7294:
7279:
7273:
7272:
7270:
7268:
7246:
7240:
7239:
7237:
7235:
7215:
7209:
7208:
7199:
7197:
7182:
7176:
7162:
7156:
7155:
7123:
7117:
7116:
7114:
7112:
7092:
7086:
7085:
7067:
7035:
7029:
7028:
7026:
7017:
7011:
7010:
7000:
6991:
6985:
6984:
6974:
6965:
6959:
6958:
6956:
6954:
6944:
6935:
6929:
6928:
6906:
6900:
6899:
6879:
6873:
6872:
6850:
6844:
6843:
6823:
6817:
6816:
6805:
6799:
6798:
6787:
6781:
6780:
6770:
6764:
6763:
6752:
6746:
6745:
6743:
6741:
6730:Business Insider
6721:
6715:
6714:
6699:
6693:
6692:
6680:
6674:
6673:
6671:
6669:
6663:
6650:
6641:
6635:
6634:
6632:
6630:
6611:
6605:
6604:
6592:
6586:
6574:
6568:
6567:
6527:
6518:
6517:
6515:
6513:
6494:
6488:
6474:
6468:
6455:
6449:
6448:
6446:
6430:
6424:
6423:
6411:
6405:
6404:
6403:. 7 August 2024.
6393:
6387:
6386:
6374:
6368:
6367:
6365:
6363:
6344:
6338:
6337:
6335:
6333:
6314:
6308:
6307:
6305:
6303:
6284:
6278:
6277:
6275:
6273:
6268:. 22 August 2024
6258:
6252:
6251:
6239:
6233:
6232:
6230:
6228:
6214:
6208:
6195:
6189:
6188:
6186:
6184:
6164:
6158:
6157:
6155:
6153:
6144:. Archived from
6133:
6127:
6126:
6124:
6122:
6102:
6096:
6095:
6093:
6091:
6072:
6066:
6065:
6054:
6048:
6047:
6027:
6021:
6020:
6008:
6002:
6001:
5989:
5983:
5982:
5970:
5964:
5963:
5951:
5945:
5944:
5942:
5940:
5920:
5914:
5902:
5896:
5895:
5893:
5891:
5871:
5865:
5864:
5852:
5846:
5845:
5825:
5819:
5818:
5806:
5800:
5799:
5787:
5781:
5780:
5768:
5762:
5761:
5759:
5757:
5737:
5731:
5730:
5721:(4): 1790–1799.
5710:
5704:
5703:
5701:
5699:
5686:Nash, Jennifer.
5683:
5677:
5676:
5664:
5658:
5657:
5655:
5653:
5634:
5628:
5627:
5625:
5623:
5604:
5598:
5597:
5595:
5593:
5573:
5567:
5566:
5554:
5548:
5547:
5527:
5521:
5520:
5518:
5516:
5497:
5491:
5490:
5488:
5486:
5475:Business Insider
5466:
5460:
5459:
5457:
5455:
5435:
5429:
5428:
5426:
5424:
5413:Business Insider
5404:
5398:
5397:
5385:
5379:
5378:
5376:
5374:
5363:Business Insider
5354:
5348:
5347:
5345:
5343:
5323:
5317:
5316:
5314:
5312:
5301:Business Insider
5292:
5286:
5285:
5283:
5281:
5270:Business Insider
5261:
5255:
5254:
5252:
5250:
5230:
5224:
5223:
5221:
5219:
5200:
5194:
5193:
5187:
5178:
5172:
5171:
5159:
5153:
5152:
5150:
5148:
5129:
5123:
5122:
5110:
5104:
5103:
5101:
5099:
5079:
5073:
5072:
5070:
5068:
5048:
5042:
5041:
5030:
5024:
5023:
5021:
5019:
5013:
5006:
4998:
4992:
4991:
4989:
4987:
4976:Business Insider
4967:
4961:
4960:
4958:
4956:
4945:Business Insider
4936:
4930:
4929:
4917:
4911:
4910:
4898:
4892:
4891:
4885:
4876:
4870:
4869:
4867:
4865:
4838:
4832:
4831:
4819:
4813:
4812:
4810:
4808:
4794:
4788:
4787:
4785:
4783:
4767:
4761:
4760:
4758:
4756:
4750:
4719:
4710:
4704:
4703:
4701:
4699:
4684:
4678:
4677:
4675:
4673:
4667:
4660:
4652:
4646:
4645:
4638:
4632:
4631:
4629:
4627:
4612:
4606:
4593:
4587:
4586:
4584:
4582:
4577:on 28 April 2020
4573:. Archived from
4567:
4561:
4555:
4554:
4538:
4532:
4531:
4520:
4514:
4513:
4505:
4499:
4498:
4484:
4478:
4477:
4465:
4459:
4458:
4446:
4440:
4439:
4427:
4421:
4420:
4408:
4402:
4401:
4389:
4383:
4382:
4370:
4364:
4363:
4351:
4345:
4344:
4342:
4340:
4321:
4312:
4311:
4291:
4285:
4284:
4282:
4280:
4265:
4259:
4258:
4246:
4236:
4230:
4229:
4227:
4225:
4219:
4210:
4204:
4203:
4178:"Liquidity Trap"
4173:
4167:
4166:
4164:
4162:
4142:
4136:
4135:
4133:
4131:
4111:
4105:
4104:
4102:
4100:
4089:Business Insider
4080:
4074:
4073:
4071:
4069:
4049:
4043:
4042:
4020:
4014:
4013:
4011:
4009:
3989:
3983:
3982:
3980:
3978:
3958:
3952:
3951:
3931:
3925:
3924:
3922:
3920:
3905:
3899:
3898:
3896:
3894:
3874:
3868:
3867:
3865:
3863:
3858:on 17 March 2010
3848:
3842:
3841:
3815:
3809:
3808:
3807:on 23 July 2021.
3803:. Archived from
3796:
3790:
3789:
3787:
3785:
3779:
3768:
3759:
3748:
3747:
3729:
3720:
3715:
3709:
3708:
3697:
3691:
3690:
3688:
3686:
3671:
3665:
3664:
3662:
3660:
3645:
3639:
3638:
3636:
3634:
3618:
3612:
3611:
3609:
3607:
3591:
3585:
3584:
3582:
3580:
3575:. Bloomberg News
3568:
3562:
3561:
3549:
3543:
3542:
3540:
3538:
3523:
3514:
3513:
3511:
3509:
3492:
3486:
3485:
3483:
3481:
3453:
3447:
3446:
3444:
3442:
3414:
3408:
3407:
3405:
3403:
3380:"Points of View"
3375:
3369:
3363:
3362:
3360:
3358:
3336:
3330:
3329:
3327:
3325:
3303:
3297:
3296:
3294:
3292:
3283:. Archived from
3273:
3264:
3263:
3252:
3243:
3242:
3240:
3238:
3224:
3218:
3217:
3215:
3213:
3194:
3188:
3187:
3176:
3170:
3169:
3157:
3151:
3150:
3148:
3146:
3141:on 28 March 2009
3128:
3122:
3121:
3108:
3086:Underconsumption
3061:Inventory bounce
2871:
2862:
2856:
2850:
2844:
2838:
2829:
2820:
2695:global recession
2677:Global recession
2660:welfare benefits
2648:living standards
2629:anti-competitive
2618:Global epidemics
2498:
2453:zero lower bound
2404:aggregate demand
2285:Recession Signal
2282:
2278:
2223:Frederic Mishkin
2102:Commodity prices
2029:Credit Markets:
2014:building permits
1906:Conference Board
1899:Jeffrey Gundlach
1806:Transportation:
1730:Prakash Loungani
1665:trading partners
1643:External shocks
1569:refinancing risk
1555:, there is also
1406:deficit spending
1399:Great Depression
1373:financial crisis
1282:Recession shapes
1254:recession shapes
1239:corporate sector
1060:natural disaster
1044:financial crisis
1016:
1009:
1002:
949:Financial crisis
944:Economic miracle
930:Economics events
921:Social democracy
876:Economic history
863:
862:
853:
846:
839:
823:
822:
813:Money portal
811:
810:
809:
723:William Nordhaus
708:Robert Lucas Jr.
598:François Quesnay
234:Nominal rigidity
205:Demand for money
183:Microfoundations
119:Financial crisis
99:Effective demand
69:Aggregate supply
64:Aggregate demand
51:
28:
27:
9563:
9562:
9558:
9557:
9556:
9554:
9553:
9552:
9528:
9527:
9526:
9521:
9386:Great Recession
9378:
9376:Information Age
9370:
9319:
9315:
9306:
9259:
9257:Great Inflation
9251:
9213:
9205:
9128:
9126:Interwar period
9120:
9056:Long Depression
9048:
9044:
9035:
8995:
8991:
8982:
8897:
8889:
8866:
8858:
8823:U.S. recessions
8818:U.K. recessions
8750:U.S. expansions
8620:
8607:
8531:
8530:
8529:
8519:
8518:
8514:
8507:
8502:
8501:
8491:
8489:
8476:
8475:
8471:
8456:10.13176/11.106
8436:
8432:
8414:
8410:
8400:
8398:
8385:
8384:
8380:
8370:
8368:
8359:
8358:
8354:
8344:
8342:
8335:
8331:
8321:
8319:
8310:
8309:
8305:
8299:Wayback Machine
8290:
8286:
8281:on 7 July 2008.
8273:
8272:
8268:
8258:
8256:
8245:
8241:
8231:
8229:
8218:
8214:
8204:
8202:
8193:
8192:
8188:
8182:Wayback Machine
8173:
8169:
8163:Wayback Machine
8154:
8150:
8140:
8138:
8123:
8119:
8109:
8107:
8089:
8085:
8080:Wayback Machine
8071:
8067:
8057:
8055:
8040:
8036:
8028:Wayback Machine
8019:
8015:
8005:
8003:
7988:
7984:
7974:
7972:
7968:
7961:
7957:
7956:
7952:
7939:
7935:
7925:
7923:
7910:
7909:
7905:
7895:
7893:
7880:
7879:
7875:
7865:
7863:
7854:
7853:
7849:
7839:
7837:
7826:
7822:
7812:
7810:
7801:
7800:
7793:
7783:
7781:
7772:
7771:
7767:
7754:
7753:
7749:
7740:
7738:
7725:
7721:
7712:
7710:
7697:
7696:
7692:
7683:
7681:
7670:
7669:
7665:
7655:
7653:
7649:
7638:
7634:
7633:
7626:
7616:
7614:
7599:
7592:
7582:
7580:
7576:
7569:
7565:
7564:
7560:
7550:
7548:
7539:
7538:
7529:
7523:Wayback Machine
7514:
7501:
7496:Wayback Machine
7486:
7482:
7472:
7470:
7457:
7456:
7452:
7446:Wayback Machine
7437:
7430:
7420:
7418:
7403:
7399:
7389:
7387:
7376:
7367:
7361:Wayback Machine
7352:
7348:
7329:
7325:
7315:Wayback Machine
7306:
7302:
7292:
7290:
7281:
7280:
7276:
7266:
7264:
7247:
7243:
7233:
7231:
7216:
7212:
7195:
7193:
7184:
7183:
7179:
7163:
7159:
7124:
7120:
7110:
7108:
7093:
7089:
7036:
7032:
7027:. pp. 2–3.
7024:
7018:
7014:
6998:
6992:
6988:
6972:
6966:
6962:
6952:
6950:
6942:
6936:
6932:
6925:
6907:
6903:
6896:
6880:
6876:
6869:
6851:
6847:
6840:
6824:
6820:
6807:
6806:
6802:
6789:
6788:
6784:
6772:
6771:
6767:
6754:
6753:
6749:
6739:
6737:
6722:
6718:
6701:
6700:
6696:
6681:
6677:
6667:
6665:
6661:
6648:
6642:
6638:
6628:
6626:
6613:
6612:
6608:
6593:
6589:
6583:Wayback Machine
6575:
6571:
6528:
6521:
6511:
6509:
6496:
6495:
6491:
6485:Wayback Machine
6475:
6471:
6465:Wayback Machine
6456:
6452:
6431:
6427:
6412:
6408:
6395:
6394:
6390:
6375:
6371:
6361:
6359:
6346:
6345:
6341:
6331:
6329:
6316:
6315:
6311:
6301:
6299:
6286:
6285:
6281:
6271:
6269:
6260:
6259:
6255:
6240:
6236:
6226:
6224:
6216:
6215:
6211:
6207:21 January 2008
6205:Wayback Machine
6196:
6192:
6182:
6180:
6165:
6161:
6151:
6149:
6142:Financial Times
6134:
6130:
6120:
6118:
6103:
6099:
6089:
6087:
6074:
6073:
6069:
6056:
6055:
6051:
6028:
6024:
6009:
6005:
5990:
5986:
5971:
5967:
5952:
5948:
5938:
5936:
5921:
5917:
5911:Wayback Machine
5903:
5899:
5889:
5887:
5872:
5868:
5853:
5849:
5826:
5822:
5807:
5803:
5788:
5784:
5769:
5765:
5755:
5753:
5738:
5734:
5711:
5707:
5697:
5695:
5684:
5680:
5665:
5661:
5651:
5649:
5636:
5635:
5631:
5621:
5619:
5606:
5605:
5601:
5591:
5589:
5574:
5570:
5555:
5551:
5528:
5524:
5514:
5512:
5499:
5498:
5494:
5484:
5482:
5467:
5463:
5453:
5451:
5436:
5432:
5422:
5420:
5405:
5401:
5386:
5382:
5372:
5370:
5355:
5351:
5341:
5339:
5324:
5320:
5310:
5308:
5293:
5289:
5279:
5277:
5262:
5258:
5248:
5246:
5231:
5227:
5217:
5215:
5202:
5201:
5197:
5185:
5179:
5175:
5160:
5156:
5146:
5144:
5131:
5130:
5126:
5111:
5107:
5097:
5095:
5080:
5076:
5066:
5064:
5049:
5045:
5032:
5031:
5027:
5017:
5015:
5011:
5007:. August 2019.
5004:
5000:
4999:
4995:
4985:
4983:
4968:
4964:
4954:
4952:
4937:
4933:
4918:
4914:
4899:
4895:
4883:
4877:
4873:
4863:
4861:
4839:
4835:
4820:
4816:
4806:
4804:
4796:
4795:
4791:
4781:
4779:
4768:
4764:
4754:
4752:
4748:
4717:
4711:
4707:
4697:
4695:
4686:
4685:
4681:
4671:
4669:
4665:
4658:
4654:
4653:
4649:
4640:
4639:
4635:
4625:
4623:
4614:
4613:
4609:
4603:Wayback Machine
4594:
4590:
4580:
4578:
4569:
4568:
4564:
4552:
4548:Wayback Machine
4539:
4535:
4522:
4521:
4517:
4506:
4502:
4485:
4481:
4466:
4462:
4447:
4443:
4428:
4424:
4409:
4405:
4390:
4386:
4371:
4367:
4352:
4348:
4338:
4336:
4323:
4322:
4315:
4308:
4292:
4288:
4278:
4276:
4267:
4266:
4262:
4255:
4237:
4233:
4223:
4221:
4217:
4211:
4207:
4200:
4174:
4170:
4160:
4158:
4143:
4139:
4129:
4127:
4112:
4108:
4098:
4096:
4081:
4077:
4067:
4065:
4050:
4046:
4039:
4021:
4017:
4007:
4005:
3990:
3986:
3976:
3974:
3959:
3955:
3948:
3932:
3928:
3918:
3916:
3907:
3906:
3902:
3892:
3890:
3875:
3871:
3861:
3859:
3850:
3849:
3845:
3838:
3816:
3812:
3797:
3793:
3783:
3781:
3777:
3766:
3760:
3751:
3744:
3730:
3723:
3716:
3712:
3699:
3698:
3694:
3684:
3682:
3673:
3672:
3668:
3658:
3656:
3646:
3642:
3632:
3630:
3619:
3615:
3605:
3603:
3592:
3588:
3578:
3576:
3569:
3565:
3550:
3546:
3536:
3534:
3525:
3524:
3517:
3507:
3505:
3493:
3489:
3479:
3477:
3454:
3450:
3440:
3438:
3415:
3411:
3401:
3399:
3376:
3372:
3366:
3356:
3354:
3337:
3333:
3323:
3321:
3304:
3300:
3290:
3288:
3275:
3274:
3267:
3254:
3253:
3246:
3236:
3234:
3226:
3225:
3221:
3211:
3209:
3196:
3195:
3191:
3178:
3177:
3173:
3158:
3154:
3144:
3142:
3130:
3129:
3125:
3110:
3109:
3105:
3100:
3095:
3006:
2949:
2936:
2934:Great Recession
2930:
2869:
2868:
2860:
2858:
2854:
2852:
2848:
2846:
2842:
2840:
2836:
2834:
2827:
2825:
2818:
2799:
2793:
2785:Great Recession
2777:
2771:
2746:
2711:
2679:
2673:
2668:
2644:
2603:
2578:
2573:
2537:
2505:
2499:
2493:
2420:monetary policy
2412:Milton Friedman
2397:
2391:
2231:Great Recession
2114:sector rotation
2085:margin accounts
1941:personal income
1743:Manufacturing:
1707:Joseph Stiglitz
1682:
1611:Economic bubble
1573:investment risk
1520:Fiscal policies
1503:
1468:
1419:
1386:negative equity
1359:
1353:
1309:
1284:
1278:
1227:
1114:
1052:economic bubble
1020:
991:
958:
925:
857:
817:
807:
805:
798:
797:
756:
748:
747:
728:Joseph Stiglitz
688:Milton Friedman
668:Friedrich Hayek
593:
583:
582:
465:
455:
454:
425:
417:
416:
402:Mundell–Fleming
397:Matching theory
335:Keynesian cross
320:
312:
311:
282:
274:
273:
59:
24:
17:
12:
11:
5:
9561:
9551:
9550:
9548:Business cycle
9545:
9540:
9523:
9522:
9520:
9519:
9518:
9517:
9512:
9507:
9505:United Kingdom
9502:
9497:
9492:
9487:
9482:
9477:
9472:
9467:
9462:
9457:
9446:
9445:
9444:
9439:
9437:United Kingdom
9434:
9429:
9424:
9419:
9414:
9409:
9404:
9399:
9394:
9382:
9380:
9379:(2007–present)
9372:
9371:
9369:
9368:
9362:
9357:
9356:
9355:
9350:
9348:United Kingdom
9345:
9340:
9329:
9323:
9321:
9308:
9307:
9305:
9304:
9303:
9302:
9297:
9295:United Kingdom
9292:
9281:
9280:
9279:
9274:
9272:United Kingdom
9263:
9261:
9253:
9252:
9250:
9249:
9244:
9239:
9233:
9227:
9221:
9217:
9215:
9207:
9206:
9204:
9203:
9198:
9197:
9196:
9191:
9189:United Kingdom
9186:
9181:
9176:
9171:
9166:
9155:
9152:
9149:
9144:
9139:
9132:
9130:
9122:
9121:
9119:
9118:
9112:
9106:
9100:
9094:
9091:
9085:
9079:
9076:
9071:
9070:
9069:
9064:
9062:United Kingdom
9052:
9050:
9037:
9036:
9034:
9033:
9027:
9021:
9018:
9012:
9009:
9003:
8999:
8997:
8984:
8983:
8981:
8980:
8974:
8971:
8968:
8962:
8959:
8953:
8950:
8947:
8944:
8938:
8928:
8925:
8924:
8923:
8918:
8913:
8901:
8899:
8891:
8890:
8888:
8887:
8882:
8877:
8870:
8868:
8860:
8859:
8857:
8856:
8855:
8854:
8844:
8843:
8842:
8837:
8827:
8826:
8825:
8820:
8815:
8810:
8805:
8800:
8795:
8790:
8780:
8779:
8778:
8769:
8764:
8754:
8753:
8752:
8747:
8742:
8732:
8731:
8730:
8725:
8720:
8715:
8710:
8701:
8696:
8691:
8677:
8675:Business cycle
8672:
8671:
8670:
8665:
8660:
8655:
8653:Overproduction
8650:
8645:
8640:
8625:
8622:
8621:
8606:
8605:
8598:
8591:
8583:
8577:
8576:
8570:
8528:
8527:
8521:
8520:
8509:
8508:
8506:
8505:External links
8503:
8500:
8499:
8469:
8430:
8408:
8378:
8367:on 3 July 2009
8352:
8329:
8303:
8284:
8266:
8239:
8212:
8186:
8167:
8148:
8117:
8083:
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8034:
8013:
7982:
7950:
7933:
7903:
7873:
7847:
7820:
7791:
7765:
7747:
7719:
7690:
7663:
7624:
7590:
7558:
7527:
7499:
7480:
7450:
7428:
7397:
7365:
7346:
7323:
7321:, 31 July 2003
7300:
7274:
7241:
7210:
7177:
7157:
7118:
7087:
7056:10.1086/657529
7030:
7012:
6986:
6960:
6949:. pp. 3–4
6930:
6923:
6901:
6894:
6874:
6867:
6845:
6838:
6818:
6800:
6782:
6765:
6747:
6716:
6694:
6675:
6636:
6606:
6587:
6569:
6519:
6502:newyorkfed.org
6489:
6469:
6450:
6425:
6406:
6388:
6369:
6339:
6309:
6292:chicagofed.org
6279:
6253:
6234:
6209:
6190:
6159:
6128:
6097:
6067:
6049:
6022:
6003:
5984:
5965:
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5915:
5897:
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5801:
5782:
5763:
5732:
5705:
5678:
5659:
5629:
5599:
5568:
5549:
5522:
5492:
5461:
5430:
5399:
5380:
5349:
5318:
5287:
5256:
5225:
5195:
5173:
5154:
5124:
5105:
5074:
5043:
5025:
4993:
4962:
4931:
4912:
4893:
4871:
4833:
4814:
4789:
4762:
4705:
4679:
4647:
4633:
4607:
4588:
4562:
4533:
4515:
4500:
4479:
4460:
4441:
4422:
4403:
4384:
4365:
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4313:
4306:
4286:
4260:
4253:
4231:
4205:
4198:
4168:
4137:
4106:
4075:
4044:
4037:
4015:
3984:
3953:
3946:
3926:
3900:
3869:
3843:
3836:
3810:
3791:
3749:
3742:
3721:
3710:
3692:
3666:
3640:
3625:. PolitiFact.
3613:
3586:
3563:
3544:
3515:
3487:
3448:
3409:
3370:
3364:
3331:
3298:
3265:
3262:. 8 July 2008.
3244:
3219:
3189:
3171:
3152:
3123:
3102:
3101:
3099:
3096:
3094:
3093:
3088:
3083:
3078:
3073:
3071:Overproduction
3068:
3063:
3058:
3053:
3048:
3043:
3038:
3033:
3028:
3023:
3018:
3013:
3007:
3005:
3002:
2948:
2945:
2932:Main article:
2929:
2926:
2906:
2905:
2899:
2893:
2887:
2859:
2853:
2847:
2841:
2835:
2826:
2817:
2795:Main article:
2792:
2789:
2773:Main article:
2770:
2769:United Kingdom
2767:
2745:
2744:European Union
2742:
2710:
2707:
2675:Main article:
2672:
2669:
2667:
2664:
2643:
2642:Social effects
2640:
2602:
2599:
2577:
2574:
2572:
2569:
2545:1981 recession
2536:
2533:
2504:
2501:
2491:
2462:macroeconomic
2390:
2387:
2384:
2383:
2380:
2377:
2374:
2371:
2367:
2366:
2363:
2360:
2357:
2354:
2350:
2349:
2346:
2343:
2340:
2337:
2333:
2332:
2329:
2326:
2323:
2320:
2316:
2315:
2312:
2309:
2306:
2303:
2299:
2298:
2295:
2292:
2289:
2286:
2274:
2273:
2268:moving average
2245:
2234:
2206:
2202:
2199:
2196:
2193:
2190:
2183:
2177:
2167:
2166:
2163:Alan Greenspan
2159:
2151:
2150:
2147:
2142:
2131:
2130:
2124:
2121:
2118:
2110:
2099:
2091:Asset Prices:
2089:
2088:
2077:
2076:
2069:
2068:
2065:federal budget
2061:
2058:
2050:
2046:
2038:
2034:
2027:
2026:
2018:
2006:
2005:
2002:
1995:
1988:
1981:
1967:
1956:
1955:
1948:
1937:
1926:
1925:
1921:
1913:
1909:
1902:
1895:
1892:
1880:
1877:
1870:
1869:
1862:
1861:
1858:
1854:
1846:
1842:
1826:
1819:
1804:
1803:
1802:Council (ACC).
1799:
1796:
1789:
1788:
1780:
1773:
1772:
1761:
1758:
1755:
1752:
1749:
1726:
1725:
1722:
1717:
1714:
1693:to combat the
1691:fed funds rate
1681:
1678:
1673:
1672:
1668:
1657:
1641:
1640:
1622:
1608:
1602:
1596:
1592:
1585:political risk
1565:liquidity risk
1549:Financial risk
1546:
1535:
1534:
1528:
1517:
1502:
1499:
1467:
1464:
1441:described the
1423:liquidity trap
1418:
1417:Liquidity trap
1415:
1390:interest rates
1378:private sector
1355:Main article:
1352:
1349:
1341:money illusion
1318:animal spirits
1308:
1305:
1280:Main article:
1277:
1274:
1235:Richard C. Koo
1226:
1223:
1173:, employment,
1152:
1151:
1148:
1145:
1138:
1127:Julius Shiskin
1113:
1110:
1087:United Kingdom
1083:European Union
1036:business cycle
1022:
1021:
1019:
1018:
1011:
1004:
996:
993:
992:
990:
989:
984:
979:
974:
968:
965:
964:
960:
959:
957:
956:
951:
946:
941:
935:
932:
931:
927:
926:
924:
923:
918:
913:
908:
903:
898:
893:
887:
884:
883:
879:
878:
872:
871:
859:
858:
856:
855:
848:
841:
833:
830:
829:
828:
827:
815:
800:
799:
796:
795:
790:
785:
783:Microeconomics
780:
779:
778:
768:
763:
757:
754:
753:
750:
749:
746:
745:
740:
735:
730:
725:
720:
715:
710:
705:
700:
698:Lawrence Klein
695:
693:Paul Samuelson
690:
685:
680:
675:
670:
665:
660:
655:
650:
648:Michał Kalecki
645:
640:
635:
630:
625:
620:
615:
610:
605:
600:
594:
589:
588:
585:
584:
581:
580:
575:
570:
568:Disequilibrium
565:
564:
563:
556:Post-Keynesian
553:
548:
547:
546:
536:
525:
524:
519:
514:
509:
504:
503:
502:
492:
487:
486:
485:
480:
466:
461:
460:
457:
456:
453:
452:
447:
442:
437:
432:
426:
424:Related fields
423:
422:
419:
418:
415:
414:
409:
404:
399:
394:
389:
388:
387:
377:
372:
367:
362:
357:
352:
350:Phillips curve
347:
342:
337:
332:
327:
321:
318:
317:
314:
313:
310:
309:
304:
299:
294:
289:
283:
280:
279:
276:
275:
272:
271:
266:
261:
256:
251:
246:
241:
236:
231:
230:
229:
219:
214:
213:
212:
202:
200:Money creation
197:
196:
195:
185:
180:
179:
178:
173:
168:
158:
156:Liquidity trap
153:
148:
143:
142:
141:
136:
126:
121:
116:
115:
114:
109:
101:
96:
91:
86:
81:
76:
74:Business cycle
71:
66:
60:
58:Basic concepts
57:
56:
53:
52:
44:
43:
41:Macroeconomics
37:
36:
15:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
9560:
9549:
9546:
9544:
9541:
9539:
9536:
9535:
9533:
9516:
9513:
9511:
9510:United States
9508:
9506:
9503:
9501:
9498:
9496:
9493:
9491:
9488:
9486:
9483:
9481:
9478:
9476:
9473:
9471:
9468:
9466:
9463:
9461:
9458:
9456:
9452:
9451:
9450:
9447:
9443:
9442:United States
9440:
9438:
9435:
9433:
9430:
9428:
9425:
9423:
9420:
9418:
9415:
9413:
9410:
9408:
9405:
9403:
9400:
9398:
9395:
9393:
9389:
9388:
9387:
9384:
9383:
9381:
9377:
9373:
9366:
9363:
9361:
9358:
9354:
9353:United States
9351:
9349:
9346:
9344:
9341:
9339:
9335:
9334:
9333:
9330:
9328:
9325:
9324:
9322:
9318:
9313:
9309:
9301:
9300:United States
9298:
9296:
9293:
9291:
9287:
9286:
9285:
9282:
9278:
9277:United States
9275:
9273:
9270:
9269:
9268:
9265:
9264:
9262:
9258:
9254:
9248:
9245:
9243:
9240:
9237:
9234:
9231:
9228:
9225:
9222:
9219:
9218:
9216:
9212:
9208:
9202:
9199:
9195:
9194:United States
9192:
9190:
9187:
9185:
9182:
9180:
9177:
9175:
9172:
9170:
9167:
9165:
9161:
9160:
9159:
9156:
9153:
9150:
9148:
9145:
9143:
9140:
9137:
9134:
9133:
9131:
9127:
9123:
9116:
9113:
9110:
9107:
9104:
9103:Panic of 1907
9101:
9098:
9097:Panic of 1901
9095:
9092:
9089:
9088:Panic of 1893
9086:
9083:
9082:Baring crisis
9080:
9077:
9075:
9072:
9068:
9067:United States
9065:
9063:
9059:
9058:
9057:
9054:
9053:
9051:
9047:
9042:
9038:
9031:
9028:
9025:
9024:Panic of 1866
9022:
9019:
9016:
9015:Panic of 1857
9013:
9010:
9007:
9006:Panic of 1847
9004:
9001:
9000:
8998:
8994:
8989:
8985:
8978:
8977:Panic of 1837
8975:
8972:
8969:
8966:
8965:Panic of 1825
8963:
8960:
8957:
8954:
8951:
8948:
8945:
8942:
8939:
8936:
8935:Panic of 1792
8932:
8929:
8926:
8922:
8919:
8917:
8914:
8912:
8908:
8907:
8906:
8903:
8902:
8900:
8896:
8892:
8886:
8883:
8881:
8880:Slump of 1706
8878:
8875:
8872:
8871:
8869:
8865:
8861:
8853:
8850:
8849:
8848:
8845:
8841:
8838:
8836:
8833:
8832:
8831:
8828:
8824:
8821:
8819:
8816:
8814:
8811:
8809:
8806:
8804:
8801:
8799:
8796:
8794:
8791:
8789:
8788:Balance sheet
8786:
8785:
8784:
8781:
8777:
8773:
8770:
8768:
8765:
8763:
8760:
8759:
8758:
8757:Interest rate
8755:
8751:
8748:
8746:
8743:
8741:
8738:
8737:
8736:
8733:
8729:
8726:
8724:
8721:
8719:
8716:
8714:
8711:
8709:
8705:
8702:
8700:
8697:
8695:
8692:
8690:
8687:
8686:
8685:
8681:
8678:
8676:
8673:
8669:
8666:
8664:
8661:
8659:
8656:
8654:
8651:
8649:
8646:
8644:
8641:
8639:
8636:
8635:
8634:
8630:
8627:
8626:
8623:
8619:
8615:
8611:
8604:
8599:
8597:
8592:
8590:
8585:
8584:
8581:
8574:
8571:
8569:
8565:
8561:
8557:
8552:
8548:
8547:
8542:
8538:
8533:
8532:
8526:
8523:
8522:
8517:
8512:
8487:
8483:
8479:
8473:
8465:
8461:
8457:
8453:
8449:
8445:
8441:
8434:
8426:
8422:
8418:
8417:Gross, Daniel
8412:
8396:
8392:
8388:
8382:
8366:
8362:
8356:
8340:
8333:
8317:
8313:
8307:
8300:
8296:
8293:
8288:
8280:
8276:
8270:
8254:
8250:
8243:
8227:
8223:
8216:
8200:
8196:
8190:
8183:
8179:
8176:
8171:
8164:
8160:
8157:
8152:
8136:
8132:
8128:
8121:
8105:
8101:
8097:
8093:
8087:
8081:
8077:
8074:
8069:
8053:
8049:
8045:
8038:
8032:
8029:
8025:
8022:
8017:
8001:
7997:
7993:
7986:
7967:
7960:
7954:
7946:
7945:
7937:
7921:
7917:
7913:
7907:
7891:
7887:
7883:
7877:
7861:
7857:
7851:
7835:
7831:
7824:
7808:
7804:
7798:
7796:
7779:
7775:
7769:
7761:
7757:
7751:
7736:
7732:
7731:
7723:
7708:
7704:
7700:
7694:
7679:
7675:
7674:
7667:
7648:
7644:
7637:
7631:
7629:
7612:
7608:
7604:
7597:
7595:
7575:
7568:
7562:
7546:
7542:
7536:
7534:
7532:
7524:
7520:
7517:
7512:
7510:
7508:
7506:
7504:
7497:
7493:
7490:
7484:
7468:
7464:
7463:The Economist
7460:
7454:
7447:
7443:
7440:
7435:
7433:
7416:
7412:
7408:
7401:
7385:
7381:
7374:
7372:
7370:
7362:
7358:
7355:
7350:
7342:
7338:
7334:
7327:
7320:
7316:
7312:
7309:
7304:
7288:
7284:
7278:
7262:
7258:
7257:
7252:
7245:
7229:
7225:
7221:
7214:
7207:
7205:
7191:
7187:
7181:
7175:
7171:
7167:
7161:
7153:
7149:
7145:
7141:
7137:
7133:
7129:
7122:
7106:
7102:
7098:
7091:
7083:
7079:
7075:
7071:
7066:
7061:
7057:
7053:
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5746:Seeking Alpha
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4558:public domain
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3837:9781612336084
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3198:"FAQ | EABCN"
3193:
3185:
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3140:
3136:
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3119:
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3042:
3039:
3037:
3034:
3032:
3029:
3027:
3024:
3022:
3019:
3017:
3016:Credit crunch
3014:
3012:
3009:
3008:
3001:
2997:
2993:
2989:
2986:
2981:
2978:
2972:
2969:
2964:
2962:
2958:
2954:
2947:United States
2944:
2942:
2935:
2925:
2921:
2917:
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2910:
2903:
2900:
2897:
2894:
2891:
2888:
2885:
2882:
2881:
2880:
2874:
2866:
2865:CPI inflation
2833:
2824:
2815:
2811:
2803:
2798:
2791:United States
2788:
2786:
2782:
2776:
2766:
2764:
2760:
2756:
2751:
2741:
2737:
2735:
2730:
2727:
2722:
2720:
2716:
2706:
2704:
2698:
2696:
2690:
2688:
2684:
2678:
2663:
2661:
2657:
2656:fixed incomes
2653:
2649:
2639:
2637:
2633:
2630:
2625:
2623:
2619:
2615:
2611:
2610:profitability
2607:
2598:
2594:
2591:
2587:
2583:
2568:
2566:
2562:
2561:Walter Heller
2558:
2557:Ronald Reagan
2554:
2550:
2546:
2541:
2535:U.S. politics
2532:
2530:
2525:
2523:
2518:
2516:
2512:
2511:
2496:
2490:
2485:
2483:
2479:
2476:
2472:
2468:
2465:
2461:
2460:New Keynesian
2456:
2454:
2450:
2444:
2441:
2437:
2433:
2429:
2425:
2421:
2418:expansionary
2417:
2413:
2409:
2405:
2401:
2396:
2381:
2378:
2375:
2372:
2369:
2368:
2364:
2361:
2358:
2355:
2352:
2351:
2347:
2344:
2341:
2338:
2335:
2334:
2330:
2327:
2324:
2321:
2318:
2317:
2313:
2310:
2307:
2304:
2301:
2300:
2296:
2294:Current Value
2293:
2290:
2287:
2284:
2283:
2277:
2271:
2269:
2262:
2258:
2254:
2250:
2246:
2243:
2239:
2235:
2232:
2228:
2224:
2219:
2215:
2211:
2207:
2203:
2200:
2197:
2194:
2191:
2188:
2184:
2181:
2178:
2175:
2172:
2171:
2170:
2164:
2160:
2156:
2155:
2154:
2148:
2146:
2143:
2139:
2136:
2135:
2134:
2128:
2125:
2122:
2119:
2115:
2111:
2107:
2103:
2100:
2097:
2094:
2093:
2092:
2086:
2082:
2081:
2080:
2074:
2073:
2072:
2066:
2062:
2059:
2055:
2051:
2047:
2044:
2039:
2035:
2032:
2031:
2030:
2023:
2019:
2015:
2011:
2010:
2009:
2003:
2000:
1996:
1993:
1989:
1986:
1982:
1979:
1975:
1971:
1968:
1965:
1961:
1960:
1959:
1953:
1949:
1946:
1942:
1938:
1935:
1931:
1930:
1929:
1922:
1919:
1914:
1910:
1907:
1903:
1900:
1896:
1893:
1890:
1886:
1881:
1878:
1875:
1874:
1873:
1867:
1866:
1865:
1859:
1855:
1852:
1847:
1843:
1840:
1836:
1831:
1827:
1824:
1820:
1817:
1813:
1809:
1808:
1807:
1800:
1797:
1794:
1793:
1792:
1786:
1785:ripple effect
1781:
1778:
1777:
1776:
1770:
1766:
1762:
1759:
1756:
1753:
1750:
1746:
1745:
1744:
1741:
1738:
1735:
1731:
1720:
1718:
1715:
1712:
1711:
1710:
1708:
1704:
1700:
1699:Deutsche Bank
1696:
1692:
1687:
1677:
1669:
1666:
1662:
1658:
1654:
1650:
1646:
1645:
1644:
1638:
1634:
1630:
1629:overleveraged
1626:
1625:Minsky Moment
1623:
1620:
1616:
1615:economic boom
1612:
1609:
1606:
1603:
1600:
1597:
1593:
1590:
1586:
1582:
1581:business risk
1578:
1574:
1570:
1566:
1562:
1561:systemic risk
1558:
1554:
1550:
1547:
1545:consumption).
1543:
1540:
1539:
1538:
1532:
1531:Demand shocks
1529:
1526:
1521:
1518:
1515:
1514:Supply shocks
1512:
1511:
1510:
1507:
1498:
1495:
1490:
1486:
1481:
1478:
1474:
1463:
1460:
1456:
1452:
1448:
1444:
1440:
1437:". Economist
1436:
1432:
1428:
1424:
1414:
1410:
1407:
1402:
1400:
1395:
1391:
1387:
1381:
1379:
1374:
1370:
1365:
1364:balance sheet
1358:
1348:
1346:
1345:normalcy bias
1342:
1338:
1333:
1329:
1328:
1323:
1322:psychological
1319:
1314:
1304:
1302:
1298:
1294:
1290:
1283:
1273:
1271:
1267:
1263:
1259:
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1251:
1246:
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1215:
1213:
1209:
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1202:
1198:
1194:
1190:
1188:
1184:
1180:
1176:
1172:
1168:
1164:
1160:
1159:United States
1155:
1149:
1146:
1143:
1139:
1136:
1132:
1131:
1130:
1128:
1125:
1121:
1120:
1109:
1107:
1103:
1099:
1094:
1092:
1088:
1084:
1080:
1076:
1075:United States
1071:
1069:
1065:
1061:
1057:
1056:anthropogenic
1053:
1049:
1045:
1041:
1037:
1033:
1029:
1017:
1012:
1010:
1005:
1003:
998:
997:
995:
994:
988:
985:
983:
980:
978:
975:
973:
970:
969:
967:
966:
962:
961:
955:
952:
950:
947:
945:
942:
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937:
936:
934:
933:
929:
928:
922:
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914:
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907:
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902:
899:
897:
894:
892:
889:
888:
886:
885:
881:
880:
877:
874:
873:
869:
865:
864:
854:
849:
847:
842:
840:
835:
834:
832:
831:
826:
821:
816:
814:
804:
803:
802:
801:
794:
791:
789:
786:
784:
781:
777:
774:
773:
772:
769:
767:
764:
762:
759:
758:
752:
751:
744:
741:
739:
736:
734:
731:
729:
726:
724:
721:
719:
718:Peter Diamond
716:
714:
711:
709:
706:
704:
703:Edmund Phelps
701:
699:
696:
694:
691:
689:
686:
684:
681:
679:
678:Richard Stone
676:
674:
671:
669:
666:
664:
663:Joan Robinson
661:
659:
658:Simon Kuznets
656:
654:
653:Gunnar Myrdal
651:
649:
646:
644:
641:
639:
636:
634:
631:
629:
628:Irving Fisher
626:
624:
623:Knut Wicksell
621:
619:
616:
614:
611:
609:
606:
604:
601:
599:
596:
595:
592:
587:
586:
579:
576:
574:
571:
569:
566:
562:
559:
558:
557:
554:
552:
549:
545:
542:
541:
540:
537:
535:
532:
531:
530:
529:
523:
520:
518:
515:
513:
510:
508:
505:
501:
498:
497:
496:
495:New classical
493:
491:
488:
484:
481:
479:
476:
475:
474:
471:
470:
469:
464:
459:
458:
451:
448:
446:
443:
441:
438:
436:
433:
431:
428:
427:
421:
420:
413:
410:
408:
405:
403:
400:
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395:
393:
390:
386:
383:
382:
381:
378:
376:
373:
371:
368:
366:
363:
361:
358:
356:
353:
351:
348:
346:
343:
341:
338:
336:
333:
331:
328:
326:
323:
322:
316:
315:
308:
305:
303:
300:
298:
295:
293:
290:
288:
285:
284:
278:
277:
270:
267:
265:
262:
260:
257:
255:
252:
250:
249:Shrinkflation
247:
245:
242:
240:
237:
235:
232:
228:
225:
224:
223:
220:
218:
215:
211:
208:
207:
206:
203:
201:
198:
194:
191:
190:
189:
186:
184:
181:
177:
174:
172:
169:
167:
164:
163:
162:
159:
157:
154:
152:
149:
147:
146:Interest rate
144:
140:
137:
135:
132:
131:
130:
127:
125:
122:
120:
117:
113:
110:
108:
105:
104:
103:Expectations
102:
100:
97:
95:
92:
90:
87:
85:
82:
80:
77:
75:
72:
70:
67:
65:
62:
61:
55:
54:
50:
46:
45:
42:
39:
38:
34:
30:
29:
26:
22:
9543:Unemployment
9427:South Africa
9184:South Africa
9030:Black Friday
8847:Unemployment
8782:
8704:Money supply
8699:Disinflation
8643:General glut
8544:
8537:"Recessions"
8515:
8490:. Retrieved
8481:
8472:
8450:(1): 40–53.
8447:
8443:
8433:
8424:
8411:
8399:. Retrieved
8390:
8381:
8369:. Retrieved
8365:the original
8355:
8343:. Retrieved
8332:
8320:. Retrieved
8306:
8287:
8279:the original
8269:
8257:. Retrieved
8253:the original
8242:
8230:. Retrieved
8215:
8203:. Retrieved
8189:
8170:
8151:
8139:. Retrieved
8130:
8120:
8108:. Retrieved
8099:
8086:
8068:
8056:. Retrieved
8047:
8037:
8031:
8016:
8004:. Retrieved
7995:
7985:
7973:. Retrieved
7953:
7942:
7936:
7924:. Retrieved
7915:
7906:
7894:. Retrieved
7885:
7876:
7864:. Retrieved
7850:
7838:. Retrieved
7823:
7811:. Retrieved
7807:the original
7782:. Retrieved
7768:
7759:
7750:
7739:, retrieved
7729:
7722:
7711:, retrieved
7707:the original
7702:
7693:
7682:, retrieved
7672:
7666:
7656:17 September
7654:. Retrieved
7642:
7617:17 September
7615:. Retrieved
7606:
7581:. Retrieved
7561:
7549:. Retrieved
7545:the original
7483:
7471:. Retrieved
7462:
7453:
7419:. Retrieved
7410:
7400:
7388:. Retrieved
7384:the original
7349:
7341:the original
7336:
7326:
7303:
7291:. Retrieved
7277:
7267:10 September
7265:. Retrieved
7254:
7244:
7232:. Retrieved
7223:
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7100:
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6951:. Retrieved
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6146:the original
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5959:
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5939:17 September
5937:. Retrieved
5929:ThinkAdvisor
5928:
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5900:
5888:. Retrieved
5879:
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5804:
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5756:21 September
5754:. Retrieved
5745:
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5708:
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5681:
5672:
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5641:
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5592:18 September
5590:. Retrieved
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5562:
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5531:
5525:
5513:. Retrieved
5504:
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5474:
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5454:28 September
5452:. Retrieved
5443:
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5423:28 September
5421:. Retrieved
5412:
5402:
5394:FOX Business
5393:
5383:
5371:. Retrieved
5362:
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5331:
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5309:. Retrieved
5300:
5290:
5280:28 September
5278:. Retrieved
5269:
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5249:17 September
5247:. Retrieved
5239:ThinkAdvisor
5238:
5228:
5216:. Retrieved
5207:
5198:
5189:
5176:
5167:
5157:
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5136:
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5098:13 September
5096:. Retrieved
5087:
5077:
5067:13 September
5065:. Retrieved
5056:
5046:
5037:
5028:
5018:18 September
5016:. Retrieved
4996:
4986:18 September
4984:. Retrieved
4975:
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4953:. Retrieved
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4792:
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4765:
4753:. Retrieved
4725:
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4708:
4696:. Retrieved
4682:
4672:25 September
4670:. Retrieved
4650:
4636:
4626:25 September
4624:. Retrieved
4610:
4591:
4579:. Retrieved
4575:the original
4565:
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4359:
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4328:
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4263:
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4208:
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4150:
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4119:
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4088:
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4057:
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4028:
4018:
4006:. Retrieved
3997:
3987:
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3966:
3956:
3936:
3929:
3917:. Retrieved
3903:
3891:. Retrieved
3882:
3872:
3860:. Retrieved
3856:the original
3846:
3827:
3823:
3813:
3805:the original
3794:
3782:. Retrieved
3775:the original
3770:
3733:
3713:
3704:
3695:
3683:. Retrieved
3678:
3669:
3657:. Retrieved
3653:
3643:
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3616:
3604:. Retrieved
3589:
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3566:
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3506:. Retrieved
3500:
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3461:
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3422:
3412:
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3383:
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3355:. Retrieved
3344:
3334:
3322:. Retrieved
3311:
3301:
3289:. Retrieved
3285:the original
3259:
3235:. Retrieved
3231:
3222:
3210:. Retrieved
3201:
3192:
3184:www.nber.org
3183:
3174:
3165:
3155:
3143:. Retrieved
3139:the original
3133:
3126:
3115:
3106:
3031:Disinflation
2998:
2994:
2990:
2982:
2973:
2965:
2950:
2937:
2922:
2918:
2911:
2907:
2877:
2778:
2747:
2738:
2734:Black Monday
2731:
2723:
2712:
2703:World War II
2699:
2694:
2691:
2680:
2645:
2626:
2606:Productivity
2604:
2595:
2579:
2576:Unemployment
2571:Consequences
2549:Paul Volcker
2542:
2538:
2526:
2519:
2508:
2506:
2503:Stock market
2494:
2487:
2480:
2471:Paul Krugman
2469:
2457:
2445:
2398:
2382:August 2024
2365:August 2024
2348:August 2024
2331:August 2024
2314:August 2024
2275:
2265:
2253:Claudia Sahm
2168:
2152:
2132:
2090:
2078:
2070:
2028:
2007:
1983:Declines in
1957:
1927:
1872:Employment:
1871:
1863:
1805:
1790:
1774:
1742:
1739:
1727:
1703:Paul Krugman
1683:
1674:
1642:
1637:Hyman Minsky
1536:
1525:hard landing
1508:
1504:
1485:Janet Yellen
1482:
1477:Hyman Minsky
1469:
1459:mercantilist
1455:inflationary
1439:Paul Krugman
1420:
1411:
1403:
1394:money supply
1382:
1369:Paul Krugman
1360:
1325:
1310:
1285:
1272:recessions.
1247:
1232:
1228:
1216:
1205:
1195:
1191:
1183:retail sales
1156:
1153:
1117:
1115:
1095:
1072:
1048:supply shock
1040:demand shock
1031:
1025:
938:
738:Paul Krugman
683:Hyman Minsky
643:Alvin Hansen
527:
526:
467:
430:Econometrics
407:Overshooting
360:Harrod–Domar
355:Arrow–Debreu
302:Central bank
269:Unemployment
259:Supply shock
243:
217:Money supply
94:Disinflation
89:Demand shock
25:
9495:New Zealand
9453:2020–2022;
9417:New Zealand
9390:2007–2009;
9336:1990–1991;
9320:(1982–2007)
9288:1980–1982;
9260:(1973–1982)
9238:(1957–1958)
9232:(1953–1954)
9226:(1948–1949)
9214:(1945–1973)
9179:New Zealand
9162:1929–1939;
9138:(1918–1919)
9129:(1918–1939)
9111:(1910–1912)
9105:(1907–1908)
9099:(1902–1904)
9090:(1893–1897)
9084:(1890–1891)
9060:1873–1879;
9049:(1870–1914)
9032:(1869–1870)
9026:(1865–1867)
9017:(1857–1858)
9008:(1847–1848)
8996:(1840–1870)
8967:(1825–1826)
8958:(1815–1821)
8943:(1796–1799)
8937:(1789–1793)
8909:1772–1774;
8898:(1760–1840)
8876:(1430–1490)
8874:Great Slump
8867:(1000–1760)
8813:Stagflation
8772:Yield curve
8718:Price level
8492:26 November
8341:. Bloomberg
8314:. Bea.gov.
7813:26 November
7138:(13): 160.
7111:26 November
7065:10419/60825
6740:1 September
5538:: 386–400.
5485:1 September
5444:Marketwatch
5332:Marketwatch
5057:Marketplace
4955:1 September
4698:26 November
4581:14 February
4161:26 November
4130:26 November
4068:26 November
3679:www.bea.gov
3281:HM Treasury
3212:29 December
3145:19 November
3112:"recession"
3081:Stagflation
3051:Foreclosure
2904:: 18 months
2886:: 15 months
2715:depressions
2522:real estate
2432:Supply-side
2408:Monetarists
1990:Decreasing
1939:Decline in
1932:Decline in
1656:recessions.
1589:profit risk
1587:as well as
1557:market risk
1542:Credit risk
1245:near zero.
1243:net exports
1171:real income
1112:Definitions
891:Advertising
618:Léon Walras
512:Supply-side
345:Accelerator
254:Stagflation
239:Price level
134:Demand-pull
9538:Recessions
9532:Categories
9460:Bangladesh
9397:Bangladesh
9041:Gilded Age
8793:Depression
8745:Stagnation
8401:29 January
8371:29 January
8345:29 January
8322:29 January
8259:29 January
7866:6 February
7840:29 January
7421:7 February
7390:22 January
6629:29 January
5998:MarketBeat
5796:MarketBeat
4782:7 December
4512:. Reuters.
4279:29 January
4151:Voxeu.org)
4099:29 January
3977:29 January
3919:29 January
3893:29 January
3346:CPA Canada
3291:25 October
3098:References
3026:Depression
2928:Late 2000s
2898:: 8 months
2892:: 8 months
2873:Recessions
2620:, such as
2393:See also:
2297:Last Data
1997:Weakening
1994:shipments.
1976:) and the
1950:Increased
1835:Dow Theory
1810:Declining
1680:Predictors
1583:like e.g.
1577:model risk
1575:like e.g.
1567:like e.g.
1559:like e.g.
1256:, such as
1233:Economist
1225:Attributes
1212:output gap
1100:, such as
901:Capitalism
673:John Hicks
603:Adam Smith
561:Circuitism
551:Ecological
539:Chartalism
490:Monetarism
468:Mainstream
365:Solow–Swan
340:Multiplier
297:Commercial
193:Endogenous
151:Investment
9500:Singapore
9455:Australia
9432:Sri Lanka
9392:Australia
9338:Australia
9164:Australia
9154:1926–1927
9151:1923–1924
9117:(1913–14)
9093:1899–1900
8949:1807–1810
8946:1802–1804
8927:1785–1788
8852:Sahm rule
8783:Recession
8684:Inflation
8680:Deflation
8568:163149563
8560:317650570
8516:Recession
8464:1558-884X
8391:USA Today
7713:11 August
7684:11 August
7144:0012-9976
7074:0889-3365
7050:: 59–60.
6947:Brookings
6813:GuruFocus
6795:GuruFocus
6668:25 August
6564:253717746
6556:0377-7332
6272:22 August
6183:29 August
6152:29 August
6121:29 August
6090:29 August
6038:: 18–40.
5890:30 August
5652:22 August
5642:GuruFocus
5622:22 August
5612:GuruFocus
5515:25 August
5373:29 August
5342:29 August
5311:27 August
5218:22 August
5208:GuruFocus
5147:22 August
5137:GuruFocus
4755:25 August
3502:CNN Money
3470:0362-4331
3431:0362-4331
3392:0362-4331
3357:23 August
3324:23 August
3232:eabcn.org
3202:eabcn.org
3021:Deflation
2867:year/year
2726:inflation
2709:Australia
2555:, before
2424:Keynesian
2037:strained.
1889:Sahm rule
1633:liquidity
1595:activity.
1427:Keynesian
1297:Hong Kong
1179:wholesale
1032:recession
1028:economics
939:Recession
771:Economics
613:Karl Marx
528:Heterodox
507:Stockholm
473:Keynesian
244:Recession
139:Cost-push
129:Inflation
84:Deflation
9485:Malaysia
9470:Botswana
9422:Pakistan
9412:Malaysia
8916:Scotland
8776:Inverted
8740:Recovery
8564:50016270
8486:Archived
8482:nber.org
8425:Newsweek
8395:Archived
8316:Archived
8295:Archived
8232:10 April
8226:Archived
8199:Archived
8178:Archived
8159:Archived
8141:10 March
8135:Archived
8110:10 April
8104:Archived
8076:Archived
8058:10 March
8052:Archived
8024:Archived
8006:4 August
8000:Archived
7975:26 April
7966:Archived
7920:Archived
7890:Archived
7860:Archived
7834:Archived
7778:Archived
7760:BBC News
7735:archived
7678:archived
7647:Archived
7611:Archived
7583:16 April
7574:Archived
7551:15 April
7519:Archived
7492:Archived
7473:15 April
7467:Archived
7442:Archived
7415:Archived
7357:Archived
7311:Archived
7287:Archived
7261:Archived
7234:10 April
7228:Archived
7190:Archived
7152:40278675
7105:Archived
7082:16071568
7009:(1): 38.
6983:(1): 54.
6953:5 August
6734:Archived
6659:Archived
6623:Archived
6579:Archived
6512:20 March
6506:Archived
6481:Archived
6461:Archived
6356:Archived
6326:Archived
6296:Archived
6227:4 August
6221:Archived
6201:Archived
6177:Archived
6115:Archived
6084:Archived
5933:Archived
5907:Archived
5884:Archived
5750:Archived
5692:Archived
5646:Archived
5616:Archived
5586:Archived
5509:Archived
5507:. 2016.
5505:phys.org
5479:Archived
5448:Archived
5417:Archived
5367:Archived
5336:Archived
5305:Archived
5274:Archived
5243:Archived
5212:Archived
5141:Archived
5092:Archived
5061:Archived
5009:Archived
4980:Archived
4949:Archived
4864:5 August
4807:4 August
4801:Archived
4776:Archived
4746:Archived
4742:11641969
4692:Archived
4663:Archived
4620:Archived
4599:Archived
4544:Archived
4333:Archived
4273:Archived
4224:5 August
4155:Archived
4124:Archived
4093:Archived
4062:Archived
4002:Archived
3971:Archived
3913:Archived
3887:Archived
3784:3 August
3654:KUSA.com
3627:Archived
3600:Archived
3598:. CNBC.
3537:20 March
3531:Archived
3508:8 August
3474:Archived
3435:Archived
3396:Archived
3351:Archived
3318:Archived
3260:BBC News
3206:Archived
3004:See also
2909:growth.
2781:COVID-19
2750:Eurozone
2687:real GDP
2652:salaries
2622:COVID-19
2601:Business
2492:—
2422:, while
1958:Retail:
1816:shipping
1812:trucking
1671:economy.
1494:feedback
1301:Thailand
1270:W-shaped
1266:L-shaped
1262:U-shaped
1258:V-shaped
1201:real GDP
1167:real GDP
1064:pandemic
1062:(e.g. a
896:Business
868:a series
866:Part of
755:See also
534:Austrian
292:Monetary
281:Policies
112:Rational
107:Adaptive
33:a series
31:Part of
9490:Namibia
9078:1887–88
9020:1860–61
9011:1853–54
9002:1845–46
8973:1833–34
8970:1828–29
8961:1822–23
8911:England
8803:Rolling
8689:Chronic
8543:(ed.).
8224:. CNN.
8205:31 July
7926:29 July
7896:19 July
7832:. CNN.
7703:The Age
7293:8 March
7204:leading
7196:16 June
6815:. 2024.
6797:. 2024.
6779:. 2024.
6762:. 2024.
6689:3435667
6332:19 July
5880:Reuters
5698:18 July
3862:31 July
3685:31 July
3659:31 July
3633:28 July
3606:28 July
3579:28 July
3480:27 July
3441:27 July
3402:27 July
3237:30 July
2988:1940s.
2977:Moody's
2763:Italian
2666:History
2632:mergers
2590:GDP gap
2436:capital
2416:limited
2259:bank's
1748:months.
1732:of the
1157:In the
1073:In the
776:Applied
573:Marxian
463:Schools
9515:Zambia
9475:Canada
9465:Belize
9402:Canada
9367:(2001)
9343:Canada
9290:Canada
9169:Canada
8840:Supply
8835:Demand
8808:Shapes
8798:Global
8708:demand
8633:Supply
8558:
8513:about
8462:
7784:23 May
7741:3 June
7172:
7150:
7142:
7080:
7072:
6921:
6892:
6865:
6836:
6712:months
6687:
6562:
6554:
5088:Forbes
4740:
4339:4 June
4304:
4251:
4196:
4035:
4008:13 May
3998:Medium
3944:
3834:
3740:
3468:
3429:
3390:
2959:) and
2870:
2863:
2861:
2855:
2849:
2843:
2837:
2830:
2828:
2821:
2819:
2759:German
2755:French
2671:Global
2614:Brexit
2379:-0.25%
2362:-5.06%
2345:-0.38%
2308:< 0
2158:down.”
2109:level.
2049:yield.
1661:export
1343:, and
1339:, the
1177:, and
1091:Canada
916:Retail
591:People
319:Models
287:Fiscal
264:Saving
124:Growth
9480:India
9407:India
9174:India
8830:Shock
8648:Model
8539:. In
7969:(PDF)
7962:(PDF)
7650:(PDF)
7639:(PDF)
7577:(PDF)
7570:(PDF)
7148:JSTOR
7078:S2CID
7025:(PDF)
6999:(PDF)
6973:(PDF)
6943:(PDF)
6662:(PDF)
6649:(PDF)
6560:S2CID
6362:6 May
6302:6 May
5186:(PDF)
5012:(PDF)
5005:(PDF)
4884:(PDF)
4749:(PDF)
4738:S2CID
4718:(PDF)
4666:(PDF)
4659:(PDF)
4494:Axios
4218:(PDF)
3778:(PDF)
3767:(PDF)
2464:model
2328:-4.8%
2311:-1.20
1934:wages
1425:is a
1313:money
1293:Korea
1034:is a
954:Shock
911:Money
906:Labor
412:NAIRU
330:AD–AS
325:IS–LM
188:Money
9220:1945
8952:1812
8616:and
8612:and
8556:OCLC
8494:2018
8460:ISSN
8403:2011
8373:2011
8347:2011
8324:2011
8261:2011
8234:2010
8207:2010
8143:2020
8112:2010
8060:2020
8008:2017
7977:2009
7928:2022
7916:NBER
7898:2021
7886:NBER
7868:2010
7842:2011
7815:2018
7786:2022
7743:2020
7715:2015
7686:2015
7658:2013
7619:2013
7585:2013
7553:2009
7475:2009
7423:2017
7392:2010
7337:Time
7295:2008
7269:2017
7236:2010
7198:2009
7170:ISBN
7140:ISSN
7113:2018
7070:ISSN
6955:2022
6919:ISBN
6890:ISBN
6863:ISBN
6834:ISBN
6760:CNBC
6742:2024
6685:SSRN
6670:2019
6631:2011
6552:ISSN
6514:2020
6364:2020
6334:2021
6304:2020
6274:2024
6229:2024
6185:2024
6154:2024
6123:2024
6111:CNBC
6092:2024
5941:2024
5892:2024
5758:2024
5700:2024
5654:2024
5624:2024
5594:2019
5517:2019
5487:2024
5456:2024
5425:2024
5375:2024
5344:2024
5313:2024
5282:2024
5251:2024
5220:2024
5149:2024
5100:2024
5069:2024
5020:2019
4988:2019
4957:2024
4866:2024
4809:2024
4784:2022
4757:2019
4700:2018
4674:2019
4628:2019
4583:2020
4341:2019
4302:ISBN
4281:2011
4249:ISBN
4226:2022
4194:ISBN
4163:2018
4132:2018
4101:2011
4070:2018
4033:ISBN
4010:2020
3979:2011
3942:ISBN
3921:2011
3895:2011
3864:2010
3832:ISBN
3786:2022
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