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Recession

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He says other forms of tax cuts, such as a reduction in sales taxes and investment tax credits, e.g., in the context of Japan's "Great Recession", are also very effective. Eggertsson infers from his analysis that the contractionary effects of labor and capital tax cuts, and the strong expansionary effect of government spending, are peculiar to the unusual environment created by zero interest rates. He asserts that with positive interest rates a labor tax cut is expansionary, per the established literature, but at zero interest rates, it reverses and tax cuts become contractionary. Further, while capital tax cuts are inconsequential in his model with a positive interest rate, they become strongly negative at zero, and the multiplier of government spending is then almost five times larger.
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overall economic health is going to worsen. Researchers at the AIA came to the conclusion that their Architecture Billings Index is an accurate indicator of actual construction spending with on average 11 months' worth of lead time and therefore reliably leads economic downturns whenever the index severely drops below 50. For example the ABI plunged below 50 between July of 2000 and January of 2001 (and then in June of 2001 the percentage change in construction spending as compared to the prior year sank into negative growth territory) ahead of the wider crash in the US equity markets that followed.
1697:. Despite widespread predictions by economists and market analysts of an imminent recession, none had materialized by July 2024, economic growth remained steady, and a Reuters survey of economists that month found they expected the economy to continue growing for the next two years. An earlier survey of bond market strategists found a majority no longer believed an inverted curve to be a reliable recession predictor. The curve began re-steepening toward positive territory in June 2024, as it had at other points during that inversion; in every previous inversion they examined; 49: 2447:
monetary policy leads to inflation only. Keynesian economists have mostly adopted this analysis, modifying the theory with better integration of short and long run trends and an understanding that a change in the money supply "affects only nominal variables in the economy, such as prices and wages, and has no effect on real variables, like employment and output". The Federal Reserve traditionally uses monetary accommodation, a policy instrument of lowering its main benchmark interest rate, to accommodate sudden supply-side shifts in the economy. When the
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in unemployment is the 'Kantro rule'. This recession indicator isn't influenced by participation rates and has an equally impressive track record as the Sahm rule going back to the early 1970s. Kantro's 10% recession rule, created by Michael Kantrowitz, CIO of Piper Sandler, measures the year-over-year growth in unemployed persons in the U.S. workforce. When the three-month moving average of this indicator grows beyond the 10% threshold at least in the past 11 occurrences the economy has already been in recession.
2229:. Their models estimate the 12-month-ahead recession probabilities using the term spread. This yield curve spread has been found to be a valuable forecasting tool, outperforming other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead. An inversion of this yield curve has been successful in predicting past recessions, including those in 1973-75, and 1981-82. The Estrella and Mishkin model later also successfully predicted the recessions in the early 2000s, and the 3000:
of economists believed that the recession may have ended. The National Bureau of Economic Research announced on 20 September 2010 that the 2008/2009 recession ended in June 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II. Prior to the start of the recession, it appears that no known formal theoretical or empirical model was able to accurately predict the advance of this recession, except for minor signals in the sudden rise of forecasted probabilities, which were still well under 50%.
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debts they ran up in the bubble years. This would be fine if someone else were taking up the slack. But what's actually happening is that some people are spending much less while nobody is spending more—and this translates into a depressed economy and high unemployment. What the government should be doing in this situation is spending more while the private sector is spending less, supporting employment while those debts are paid down. And this government spending needs to be sustained..."
2736:. Although the collapse was larger than the one in 1929, the global economy recovered quickly, but North America still suffered a decline in lumbering savings and loans, which led to a crisis. The recession was not limited to the United States, but it also affected partnering nations such as Australia. The unemployment level increased to 10.8%, employment declined by 3.4% and the GDP also decreased as much as 1.7%. Inflation, however, was successfully reduced. 2057:
and the longer (e.g. 10-year) Treasury yield, has in the past, been a reliable recession signal as the curve usually disinverts (or un-inverts) nearly before the recession truly appears. Based on recent history, the last four recessions, as of Q2-2024, didn’t start until the inverted curve returned to a positive reading (steepens). Further analysis shows that "the average time to recession (...) only 66 days from when the curve disinverts."
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such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies (Smith, 2018; Johnson & Thompson, 2020). By examining these factors comprehensively, economists gain insights into the complex dynamics that contribute to economic downturns and can formulate effective strategies for mitigating their impact (Anderson, 2019; Patel, 2017).
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financial institutions are shrinking assets to bolster capital and improve their chances of weathering the current storm. Once again, Minsky understood this dynamic. He spoke of the paradox of deleveraging, in which precautions that may be smart for individuals and firms—and indeed essential to return the economy to a normal state—nevertheless magnify the distress of the economy as a whole."
4553: 1189:, an independent federal agency that provides official macroeconomic and industry statistics, says "the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation" and that instead, "The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research". 1433:) yet do not effectively stimulate the economy. In theory, near-zero interest rates should encourage firms and consumers to borrow and spend. However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; increasing the money supply is like " 1825:, a shipping freight-cost index which reflects the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers, is generally seen as a leading indicator of economic activity, because changes in the index reflect global supply and demand for commodities and raw materials used in manufacturing. A falling BDI can signal a slowdown in economic activity. 1409:
tend to spend more rather than save if they believe inflation is on the horizon. In more technical terms, Krugman argues that the private sector savings curve is elastic even during a balance sheet recession (responsive to changes in real interest rates), disagreeing with Koo's view that it is inelastic (non-responsive to changes in real interest rates).
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full-time employment (with the year-over-year change crossing into negative territory as recession risk warning). Another way to use this approach is to look at the number of people who are working part time but would rather be working full time, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This approach is also called U-7 and was invented by
1920:, a Dartmouth labor economist who served on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee. David Kotok, the chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, says the way to use the U-7 number is to compare it with the main unemployment rate, which the Labor Department calls U-3. When the U-3 rises faster than the U-7, that is a recession warning. 1401:, in which U.S. GDP fell by 46%. He argued that monetary policy was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities. In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy. 5008: 5335: 2878:
According to economists, since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion. From 1980 to 2018 there were only eight periods of negative economic growth over one fiscal quarter or more, and four periods
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for policy analysis, writes that cutting taxes on labor or capital is contractionary under certain circumstances, such as those that prevailed following the economic crisis of 2008, and that temporarily increasing government spending at such times has much larger effects than under normal conditions.
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Monetarist economists have argued that objectives of monetary policy, i.e., controlling the money supply to influence interest rates, are best achieved by targeting the growth rate of the money supply. They maintain that money may affect output in the short term but that in the long run, expansionary
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would raise investment, thereby making workers more productive and raising output and wages. Investment patterns in the United States through 2019, however, indicated that the supply-side incentives of the TCJA had little effect on investment growth. Although investments increased after 2017, much of
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contraction: The GDP measures a country's economic output, all goods and services a country produces. GDP provides a good insight into what has already been taking place in the economy. A contraction in GDP, especially if it occurs for two consecutive quarters, is a strong indicator of a recession as
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appear to be more useful to predict a recession ahead of time than other variables, no single variable has proven to be an always reliable predictor whether recessions will actually (soon) appear, let alone predicting their sharpness and severity in terms of duration. The longest and deepest Treasury
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Excessive levels of indebtedness or the bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause what is called a "balance sheet recession". This occurs when large numbers of consumers or corporations pay down debt (i.e., save) rather than spend or invest, which slows the economy. The term
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economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread. The Estrella and Mishkin model is a well-known approach for predicting U.S. recessions. This model primarily uses the yield curve, specifically the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates, as a predictor. This method has been widely
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in the stock market, specifically strong shifts in investment from leading more volatile sectors like consumer cyclicals and consumer discretionary (as well as e.g. biotechnology) to more stable sectors such as utilities and consumer staples (as well as e.g. telecommunications) can signal increasing
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9-12 months ahead. The ABI is a survey send each month by the AIA to several hundreds of architecture firms. The index can be used to predict a recession. The index is centered around a value of 50. Below 50 means there is a high likelihood that construction spending will decrease and that therefore
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Six other employment-based recession indicators are: 1) new claims for unemployment (8-week smoothing of 26-week change) larger than 60.000. 2) Continuing claims for unemployment (percent change year-over-year) larger 21%. 3) Employed part-time due to economic reasons (percent change year-over-year)
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wrote that the term "refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or
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A December 2008 report from the National Bureau of Economic Research stated that the U.S. had been in a recession since December 2007, when economic activity peaked, based on several measures including job losses, declines in personal income, and declines in real GDP. By July 2009, a growing number
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A November 2008 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on the survey of 51 forecasters, suggested that the recession started in April 2008 and would last 14 months. They projected real GDP declining at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.1% in the first quarter of
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Although the US economy grew in the first quarter by 1%, by June 2008 some analysts stated that due to a protracted credit crisis and "rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food, and steel", the country was nonetheless in a recession. The third quarter of 2008 brought on a GDP retraction of
2705:: 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009. All of them only lasted one year, although the third would have lasted three years (1991–1993) if IMF as criteria had used the normal exchange rate weighted per‑capita real World GDP rather than the purchase power parity weighted per‑capita real World GDP. 2700:
In April 2009, IMF had changed their Global recession definition to "A decline in annual per‑capita real World GDP (purchasing power parity weighted), backed up by a decline or worsening for one or more of the seven other global macroeconomic indicators: Industrial production, trade, capital
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can indicate that a recession may be on the horizon as it has historically often preceded economic downturns with lead times ranging from several months to over a year. Especially the disinversion, a move back into positive territory for the spread between the shorter (e.g. 3-month or 2-year) yield
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Jobs market contraction: The 'Perkins rule', created by GlobalData TS Lombard managing director Dario Perkins, triggers when payrolls are declining. Commonly when the Sahm rule produces a recession warning signal the Perkins rule has already triggered. Another jobs market indicator measuring a rise
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A July 2012 survey of balance sheet recession research reported that consumer demand and employment are affected by household leverage levels. Both durable and non-durable goods consumption declined as households moved from low to high leverage with the decline in property values experienced during
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when faced with a balance sheet recession would be appropriate. However, Krugman argued that monetary policy could also affect savings behavior, as inflation or credible promises of future inflation (generating negative real interest rates) would encourage less savings. In other words, people would
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in 1973, caused partially by the oil crisis happening in that same year, which brought inflation at a 13% increase. Economic recession hit by the middle of the year 1974, with no change in policy enacted by the government as a measure to counter the economic situation of the country. Consequently,
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for new private housing units. Residential investment contains information that is particularly useful for predicting recessions when compared by what is captured by standard leading indicators such as the term spread. And it is especially useful for the prediction of recessions for countries with
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There are various trucking indices, most notably the Cass Freight Index, which measures monthly freight activity across all domestic freight modes in North America. Other trucking indices are the FreightWaves National Truckload Index (NTI), the FTR Trucking Conditions Index (TCI), the ACT For-Hire
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loop for more than a year. A process of balance sheet deleveraging has spread to nearly every corner of the economy. Consumers are pulling back on purchases, especially durable goods, to build their savings. Businesses are cancelling planned investments and laying off workers to preserve cash. And
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to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do. Corporate investment, a key demand component of GDP, fell enormously (22% of GDP) between 1990 and its peak decline in 2003.
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A recession encompasses multiple attributes that often occur simultaneously and encompasses declines in component measures of economic activity, such as GDP, including consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures are indicative of underlying drivers
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in the U.S. grew to 8.5% in March 2009, and there were 5.1 million job losses by March 2009 since the recession began in December 2007. That was about five million more people unemployed compared to just a year prior, which was the largest annual jump in the number of unemployed persons since the
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By this measure, six periods since 1970 qualify: 1974–1975, 1980–1983, 1990–1993, 1998, 2001–2002, and 2008–2009. During what IMF in April 2002 termed the past three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output growth was zero or negative, and IMF argued—at that time—that
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There are many reasons why recessions happen. One overall reason can be lack of demand due to sharp developments in the prices of the inputs used in producing goods and services. Another main reason can be problems e.g. in financial markets. Because recessions have many likely explanations, it is
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The European Union, akin to the NBER's methodology, has embraced a definition of recession that integrates GDP alongside a spectrum of macroeconomic indicators, including employment and various other metrics. This approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of the depth and breadth of economic
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saw private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This indicated the depth and severity of the recession. With consumer confidence so low, economic recovery took a long time. Consumers in the U.S. were hit hard by the Great Recession, with the value of their houses dropping and
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NBER has sometimes declared a recession before a second quarter of GDP shrinkage has been reported, but beginnings and endings can also be declared over a year after they are reckoned to have occurred. In 1947, NBER did not declare a recession despite two quarters of declining GDP, due to strong
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were paying down debts and unable to carry the U.S. economy as they had previously: "The root of our current troubles lies in the debt American families ran up during the Bush-era housing bubble...highly indebted Americans not only can't spend the way they used to, they're having to pay down the
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Keynes showed that if somehow the level of aggregate demand could be triggered, possibly by the government printing currency notes to employ people to dig holes and fill them up, the wages that would be paid out would resuscitate the economy by generating successive rounds of demand through the
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According to research by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a leading indicator of economic cycles. It tracks the movement of freight and passengers to provide insights into the broader economic conditions. Both TSI index components lead the
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of the beginning a recession. Usually, the signal happens in the three months of the recession. The CFNAI Diffusion Index signal tends to happen about one month before a related signal by the CFNAI-MA3 (3-month moving average) drops below the −0.7 level. The CFNAI-MA3 correctly identified the 7
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Behavior that may be optimal for an individual (e.g., saving more during adverse economic conditions) can be detrimental if too many individuals pursue the same behavior, as ultimately, one person's consumption is another person's income. Too many consumers attempting to save (or pay down debt)
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Official economic data shows that a substantial number of nations were in recession as of early 2009. The US entered a recession at the end of 2007, and 2008 saw many other nations follow suit. The US recession of 2007 ended in June 2009 as the nation entered the current economic recovery. The
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For the last three of these recessions, the NBER decision has approximately conformed with the definition involving two consecutive quarters of decline. While the 2001 recession did not involve two consecutive quarters of decline, it was preceded by two quarters of alternating decline and weak
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago developed the ROC Threshold Index (ROC means receiver operating characteristic). It combines multiple leading indicators to predict recessions. It has shown better predictive ability than individual indicators up to 11 months ahead. And it also significantly
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Indicators of chemical activity provide a longer lead time compared to other economic indicators. Tracking chemical activity as an index can lead by two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks and four months at cycle troughs, according to the American Chemistry
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or monetary policies by the government, which are contractionary in nature: A contractionary policy is a tool usually used to tame rising inflation. Excessive use of tightening policies, e.g. too rapid increases in interest rates, can reduce demand and consumer spending for goods and services,
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U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008, the most in five years. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on 6 April 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession." On 1 October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that an
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Growing shifts in labor market internals to part-time work signals increasing weakness in the economy as normally part-time jobs rise and full-time jobs decrease as a share of employment before a recession takes hold. As an indicator this can be measured simply using the ratio of part-time to
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Summary: Why recessions happen is a complex phenomena often resulting from a interplay of various factors. While these factors can individually contribute to a recession, the cumulative impact of several occurring simultaneously can significantly amplify the negative effect on the economy.
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the subprime mortgage crisis. Further, reduced consumption due to higher household leverage can account for a significant decline in employment levels. Policies that help reduce mortgage debt or household leverage could therefore have stimulative effects (Smith & Johnson, 2012).
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derives from an accounting identity that holds that assets must always equal the sum of liabilities plus equity. If asset prices fall below the value of the debt incurred to purchase them, then the equity must be negative, meaning the consumer or corporation is insolvent. Economist
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The long-term spread: The spread between a shorter-term rate (like the three-month Treasury yield) and 10-year U.S. bond yields. The long-term Treasury yield spread has been particularly effective at predicting recessions many months in advance, achieving an AUC (Area Under the
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Japanese firms overall became net savers after 1998, as opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus (borrowing and spending by the government) that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U.S. type
1607:: Artificially low interest rates can encourage excessive borrowing and result in a buildup of risk in the financial sector. When interest rates rise, these investments (like new constructions in real estate) may fail, exacerbate economic declines, contributing to a recession. 1165:(NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in 5327: 1844:
Both indices (BDI and DJTA) serve as barometers for economic health and are considered to be leading economic indicators but from different perspectives. The BDI focuses on global trade and commodity demand, while the DJTA reflects domestic transportation activity in the
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larger 16%. 4) Unemployed more than 15 weeks (percent change from 12-month low) larger 30%. 5) Temporary help services (percent change year-over-year) smaller -2%. 6) Aggregate hours worked, production and non-supervisory employees (6-month percent change) smaller 0%.
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The full impact of a recession on employment may not be felt for several quarters. After recessions in Britain in the 1980s and 1990s, it took five years for unemployment to fall back to its original levels. Employment discrimination claims rise during a recession.
1980:: Declines in consumer sentiment and confidence can signal a recession. These measures reflect consumers' outlook on the economy and their willingness to spend, which drives economic activity. A drop in consumer confidence often precedes reduced consumer spending. 1506:
demanding to predict them. Some variables might at first glance be the causes of recessions, but they could also be the results of a recession, which means they are endogenous to recessions. One can summarize the causes of recessions in the following categories:
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In July 2022, the NBER released a statement regarding declaring a recession following a second consecutive quarter of shrinking GDP, "There is no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions".
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Sausage sales: Heightened appetites for sausages might be a harbinger of a looming economic downturn, because sausages are a cheaper protein substitute for other higher-priced meat products, a reaction by shoppers when times are tough experts call the “trade
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Average weekly hours in manufacturing. Firms tend to react to worsening business cycle circumstances by lowering hours worked before laying off workers, according to Glosser and Golden (1997). This popular indicator leads industrial production by two to four
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can cause widespread disruptions in critical sectors in supply chains and disrupt economic activity, reduce productivity, increase costs, affect confidence and thereby diminish economic activity, leading to decreased spending and investment and finally
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Financial market problems: Issues in financial markets, such as rapid credit expansion. When households accumulate excessive debt and later face difficulties in meeting their obligations, they cut back on consumption, leading to a decrease in economic
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was only one manifestation of a broader problem of excessive debt—that it was a so-called "balance sheet recession". In Krugman's view, such crises require debt reduction strategies combined with higher government spending to offset declines from the
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hit, it didn't take long before we were in a recession. The recession, in turn, deepened the credit crunch as demand and employment fell, and credit losses of financial institutions surged. Indeed, we have been in the grips of precisely this adverse
2685:(IMF), "Global recessions seem to occur over a cycle lasting between eight and 10 years." The IMF takes many factors into account when defining a global recession. Until April 2009, IMF several times communicated to the press, that a global annual 1185:". The NBER also explains that: "a recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its through." The NBER is considered the official arbiter of recession start and end dates for the United States. The 1887:: A enlarging unemployment rate with rising initial claims for unemployment insurance indicate weakening labor market conditions, which can be a precursor to a recession. This indicator leads industrial production by two to three months. Also see 6711:
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12
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Growing unemployment rate as measured by the initial claims for unemployment insurance (indicated by a constant enduring year-over-year increase in the three-week average of unemployment insurance initial claims), which are reported by the
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found that only two of the sixty recessions around the world during the 1990s had been predicted by a consensus of economists one year earlier, while there were zero consensus predictions one year earlier for the 49 recessions during 2009.
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during a recession. In other words, unemployment never reaches 0%, so it is not a negative indicator of the health of an economy, unless it exceeds the "natural rate", in which case the excess corresponds directly to a loss in the GDP.
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The type and shape of recessions are distinctive. In the US, v-shaped, or short-and-sharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in 1954 and 1990–1991; U-shaped (prolonged slump) in 1974–1975, and W-shaped, or
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Australia next went into recession in March 2020, due to the impact of huge bush fires and the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on tourism and other important aspects of the economy. This recession, while steep, only lasted until May 2020.
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Credit conditions like credit spreads. The spread between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries is important. If the spread between corporate and government debt increases, this could signal that private sector lending is becoming
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contains railroads, shipping companies, air freight carriers, marine transportation, delivery services, and logistics companies. The performance of transportation stocks can predict trends in the broader market, according to the
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also described a "paradox of deleveraging" as financial institutions that have too much leverage (debt relative to equity) cannot all de-leverage simultaneously without significant declines in the value of their assets.
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For example, economist Richard Koo wrote that Japan's "Great Recession" that began in 1990 was a "balance sheet recession". It was triggered by a collapse in land and stock prices, which caused Japanese firms to have
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Low industrial output and sales: During economic downturns, companies reduce production to minimize risk. This leads to lower industrial output and sales, which can signal an impending recession, because it causes a
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by making necessities like transportation and housing costlier. This will tend to constrict spending for non-essential goods and services. Once the recession occurs, commodity prices will usually reset to a lower
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and credit and debt issues: Overextension of credit and accumulation of risky debt can lead to financial crises. When borrowers (e.g. corporations) default, it can cause a cascade of business failures and reduced
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policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand. He estimated in March 2010 that developed countries representing 70% of the world's GDP were caught in a liquidity trap.
8600: 1787:. As fewer goods are produced, lesser resources like labor, equipment and raw materials are required. As industrial output falls this sooner or later leads to a cutback in hiring as well as a surge in layoffs. 2979:
declared that nine US states were in a recession. In November 2008, employers eliminated 533,000 jobs, the largest single-month loss in 34 years. In 2008, an estimated 2.6 million U.S. jobs were eliminated.
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rather than invest. Such expectations can create a self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession. Consumer confidence is one measure used to evaluate economic sentiment. The term
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In terms of financial indicators - A significant increase in loan defaults or a tightening of credit conditions by financial institutions, leading to a decrease in business investment and consumer spending.
2513:, Siegel mentions that since 1948, ten recessions were preceded by a stock market decline, by a lead time of 0 to 13 months (average 5.7 months), while ten stock market declines of greater than 10% in the 2048:
The near-term forward spread: This is the difference between the market expectation of the interest rate on a three-month Treasury bill six quarters in the future and the current three-month Treasury bill
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Using the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve to predict S&P 500 returns and U.S. recessions | Theodore Gregory Hanks | Pennsylvania State University, Schreyer Honors College Department of Finance | Spring 2012
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The Atlanta Fed offers a GDPnow model, which estimates changes in real GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP. GDPnow can provide a timelier gauge of the current state of the economy.
1533:: A widespread drop in spending, known as an adverse demand shock, can lead to recessions. This can be triggered by various events, including the bursting of economic bubbles (see economic bubbles below). 1670:
Global spillover effects: Recessions in one part of the world can have spillover effects on other economies due to global interconnectedness. For example, economic troubles in Europe can impact the U.S.
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experienced a recession in 2012: the economies of the 17-nation region failed to grow during any quarter of the 2012 calendar year. The recession deepened during the final quarter of the year, with the
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An administration generally gets credit or blame for the state of the economy during its time in office; this state of affairs has caused disagreements about how particular recessions actually started.
2662:. The loss of a job is known to have a negative impact on the stability of families, and individuals' health and well-being. Fixed income benefits receive small cuts which make it tougher to survive. 1795:
Basic industrial chemicals like chlorine, alkalies, pigments and plastic resins are positioned early in the supply chain. This early position allows to identify emerging turning points in the economy.
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Producer Price Index (PPI) by Industry: General Freight Trucking Index. These indices are essential for understanding the dynamics of the trucking industry and predicting future market conditions.
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Chemical activity also includes data on hours worked in chemicals, chemical company stock data, publicly sourced chemical price information, end-use chemical industry sales-to-inventories.
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As a result of late 1920s profit issues in agriculture and cutbacks, 1931–1932 saw Australia's biggest recession in its entire history. It fared better than other nations that underwent
5416: 5273: 2189:. This index contains the real oil price, well permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, Texas stock index, help-wanted index and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing. 2701:
flows, oil consumption, unemployment rate, per‑capita investment, and per‑capita consumption." By this new definition, a total of four global recessions took place since
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Plunging underwear sales: During the global financial crisis, men's underwear sales dropped significantly, mirroring reduced consumer spending and causing former Federal Reserve head
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can also signal a recession. As consumers cut back on spending, businesses may respond by reducing production and laying off workers, creating a cycle that can lead to a recession.
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Over the years, some commentators dropped most of Shiskin's "recession-spotting" criteria for the simplistic rule-of-thumb of a decline in real GNI for two consecutive quarters.
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between firms rises sharply. The fall in productivity could also be attributed to several macro-economic factors, such as the loss in productivity observed across the UK due to
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and its nonfinancial leverage subindex can be used as leading indicators to predict a recession.
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contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse
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Rising corporate debt can foreshadow a bear market, notably when businesses go ahead with taking on more debt, despite having diminishing sales and dwindling earnings.
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high home-ownership rates. Research results strongly suggest that recession predictability of leading indicators is improved, when residential investment is included.
7379: 5829: 5091: 1627:: Euphoria and speculative borrowing as well as unsustainable financial practices eventually result in economic downturns. A Minsky Moment marks the point at which 1601:: Restrictions on credit availability also known as credit crunch, can reduce consumer spending and business investment, leading to a slowdown in economic activity. 7260: 6622: 3886: 8134: 4324: 1763:
Measuring manufacturing output against business demand (new orders plus backlog minus inventory) as a composite index for U.S. economic activity, using data from
9494: 7889: 5359:"2 recession indicators with perfect track records show the US just entered a downturn — opening the door for stocks to plummet as the Fed gets set to cut rates" 1129:
suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this:
2225:, uses the difference between the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds and 3-month Treasury bills, as detailed in their research papers and working papers for the 1207: 4061: 2527:
Since the business cycle is very hard to predict, Siegel argues that it is not possible to take advantage of economic cycles for timing investments. Even the
8394: 7919: 6808: 3649: 1516:: A sudden increase in the prices of key inputs (input price shock) can lead to higher production costs and reduced aggregate demand, triggering a recession. 1311:
Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For example, if companies expect economic activity to slow, they may reduce employment levels and save
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of 2007-2009. Moreover, a negative spread has historically preceded each U.S. recession since the 1950s, according to The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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In terms of diffusion – A decline in non-agricultural employment in more than 75% of industries, as measured over six-month spans, for six months or longer.
9484: 7999: 1326: 1077:, a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real 5687: 5508: 8249:"Real GDP First-Quarter 2008 Preliminary Estimate :: Brent Meyer :: Economic Trends :: 06.03.08 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland" 7671: 7189: 6725: 6505: 5296: 4619: 5904: 5439: 5390:"Sahm Rule is picking up on something that's 'very worrisome' - New Century Advisors chief economist Claudia Sahm weighs in on the Fed's next rate move" 765: 9474: 7310: 6939: 4540: 2992:
0.5%, the biggest decline since 2001. The 6.4% decline in spending during Q3 on non-durable goods, like clothing and food, was the largest since 1950.
2721:. The nation also benefited from greater productivity in manufacturing, facilitated by trade protection, which also helped with lessening the effects. 2045:
curve) value of 0.89 at 14 months ahead. And it is the best predictor at a horizon of 16 to 20 months ahead, when compared to other leading indicators.
1617:
period and accumulation of financial risks during good economic times creates a asset bubble, followed by continued sharp declines in asset prices, a (
1013: 4687: 4570: 4154: 2104:, as measured e.g. by the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), may increase before recessions, which usually hinders 1771:(Empire Manufacturing, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas) indices, has been a reliable recession indicator during the last eight recessions. 1291:
in 1949 and 1980–1982. Japan's 1993–1994 recession was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997–1999 can be described as L-shaped.
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Significant declines in stock prices can reflect investor pessimism about future economic conditions and can be a leading indicator of a recession.
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Business sector profits. Declining corporate earnings over successive quarters can signal economic trouble and the risk of a potential bear market.
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are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonal adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for
850: 8225: 7610: 3595: 7466: 7414: 6295: 5530:
Neves, Pedro Cunha; Afonso, Óscar; Silva, Sandra Tavares (February 2016). "A Meta-Analytic Reassessment of the Effects of Inequality on Growth".
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A decline in manufacturing activities and new orders for consumer and capital goods can signal reduced business investment and economic slowdown.
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analysts found the curve had re-steepened before a recession began. The following variables and indicators are used by economists, like e.g.
8103: 7573: 5645: 5615: 5211: 5140: 3572: 1908:. On average, the peak in the labor differential comes nine months ahead of a recession, according to BCA Research strategist Peter Berezin. 8992: 8617: 7491: 6578: 6460: 6220: 4800: 4571:"Wall Street starts 2017 with tailwind | By Juergen Buettner | 4 January 2017 | Chart 1: Consumer Confidence Index and Historically Shocks" 3700: 1897:
Swelling unemployment rate, specifically a unemployment rate rising above its 36-month moving average is a cause for concern, according to
7646: 3800: 1904:
A narrowing labor differential between those who think jobs are plentiful versus those who think they are hard to get, as measured by the
8051: 5741: 3317: 6480: 6106: 5713:
Are Aastveit, Knut; Anundsen, André K.; Herstad, Eyo I. (October–December 2019). "Residential investment and recession predictability".
9352: 9299: 7104: 5577: 4771: 1134: 7728: 7515: 4971: 3350: 1252:, although some argue that their causes and cures can be different. As an informal shorthand, economists sometimes refer to different 5875: 4595: 9210: 8817: 3276: 2774: 1713:
The U.S. Conference Board's Present Situation Index year-over-year change turns negative by more than 15 points before a recession.
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Another recession came at the beginning of the 1990s as the result of a major stock collapse in October 1987, referred to now as
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of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.
2212:, the model developed by economist Jonathan H. Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the 8072: 1404:
Krugman discussed the balance sheet recession concept in 2010, agreeing with Koo's situation assessment and view that sustained
9188: 8920: 8915: 8910: 8904: 8274: 7441: 6433:
Ulatan, Jeffrey (3 July 2020). "2020 Recession Signals, After US-Iran Airstrike. Vanguard ETF Best Performing Funds for 2020".
4642:"Seeking Alpha | Take Me To Your Leader: Analyzing The Latest Leading Indicators | by −1.9% | 24 September 2019" 4332: 3970: 3763: 3622: 2624:, could be another example, since they disrupt the global supply chain or prevent the movement of goods, services, and people. 2463: 2406:. Strategies favored for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow. 1613:: Unsustainable rapid increases in asset prices due to excessive risk-taking, characterized by exaggerated optimism during the 384: 160: 6355: 6197: 5924: 5234: 3379: 9193: 8722: 7859: 7540: 7286: 7173: 6922: 6893: 6866: 6837: 5993: 5791: 5052: 4305: 4268: 4252: 4197: 4036: 3945: 3741: 3138: 1841:
can signal potential early economic weakness if transportation stocks are underperforming while industrial stocks are rising.
986: 8198: 6726:"'Something has been changing': Why a top economist is still worried about a recession even as the US economy keeps growing" 6683:
Lihn, Stephen H. T. (10 August 2019). "Real-time Recession Probability with Hidden Markov Model and Unemployment Momentum".
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hire people." Behavioral economics has also explained many psychological biases that may trigger a recession including the
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investment. For example, the Trump administration claimed that lower effective tax rates on new investment imposed by the
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measuring of stock market volatility. A high VIX indicates increased market stress, which can precede economic downturns.
7383: 7250: 6614: 6532:"Forecasting of recessions via dynamic probit for time series: replication and extension of Kauppi and Saikkonen (2008)" 5033: 3878: 2724:
The economy had gone into a brief recession in 1961 because of a credit squeeze. Australia was facing a rising level of
9337: 8485: 8338: 8126: 7544: 6910: 6790: 6531: 6288:"A 'Big Data' View of the U.S. Economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago" 4656:"Background on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | 19 September 2019" 2864: 2552: 976: 521: 369: 7881: 1621:), which can lead to a cascade of business failures, significant recessions and worst case depressions and stagnation. 8545: 8023: 3835: 2256: 2042: 999: 7965: 6325: 2524:
market also usually weakens before a recession. However, real estate declines can last much longer than recessions.
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and initial jobless claims. U.S. unemployment index is defined as the difference between the 3-month average of the
2182:, research indicates that the ALI can lead turning points in the business cycle by approximately five to six months. 9183: 8550: 8386: 4745: 4053: 2244:
and the 12-month minimum of the unemployment rate. Unemployment momentum and acceleration with Hidden Markov model.
2217: 1829: 462: 7911: 9401: 8608: 8510: 2940: 1764: 1144: ; a 15% decline in non-agricultural employment; a two-point rise in unemployment to a level of at least 6%. 836: 7991: 6030:
Dwyer, Gerald P.; Devereux, John; Baier, Scott; Tamura, Robert (2013). "Recessions, growth and banking crises".
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indicator below in the overview of recession indicators, which tracks the momentum in the U3 unemployment rate.
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wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the
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downturns, enabling policymakers to devise more effective strategies for economic stabilization and recovery.
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Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies
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because of the opposite being found for 2001, the economic state in this year by itself did not qualify as a
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The U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator year-over-year change turns negative before a recession.
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investors are forced to sell off assets to cover their debts, leading to a rapid decline in asset prices and
567: 374: 7380:"Recession Britain: New ESRC report on the impact of recession on people's jobs, businesses and daily lives" 7307: 4488: 1330:, was the first economist to claim that such emotional mindsets significantly affect the economy. Economist 9045: 4574: 4146: 2996:
2009. These forecasts represented significant downward revisions from the forecasts of three months prior.
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tends to fall in the early stages of a recession, then rises again as weaker firms close. The variation in
2585: 2564: 2514: 2415: 1838: 506: 494: 5328:"A reliable labor-market recession indicator has triggered — but this time it could be bullish for stocks" 4842: 1849:
Trucking Index, the American Trucking Associations' Truck Tonnage Index, the DAT Trendlines index and the
9359: 9141: 9073: 7022:"How Effective is Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound? Identification Through Industry Heterogeneity" 6075: 3010: 2682: 2205:
outperformed other measures at leading recession forecasts with a range of six to nine months in advance.
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Lowering of asset prices, such as homes and financial assets, or high personal and corporate debt levels.
2021: 1963: 1944: 1733: 1186: 1067: 920: 396: 226: 150: 78: 8221: 7941:
Blake, Aaron (28 July 2022). "What two negative GDP quarters means for 'recession' – and our politics".
9416: 9391: 9246: 9241: 9200: 9168: 8955: 8873: 7602: 7458: 7406: 4972:"The "bloodbath" in America's trucking industry has officially spilled over to the rest of the economy" 2064: 1884: 1850: 1123: 981: 516: 499: 379: 20: 8252: 6415: 6378: 6287: 6243: 5974: 5955: 5856: 5810: 5668: 5558: 5163: 4921: 4902: 4823: 4451:"Recessions are difficult, but stagnant growth could prove more challenging, Stanford economist warns" 3205: 2198:
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N).
1894:
Growing labor market weakness as indicated by a negative three-month average of U.S. nonfarm payrolls.
9436: 9426: 9173: 8416: 8174: 6645: 4115: 3855: 3312: 2717:, but their poor economic states influenced Australia, which depended on them for export, as well as 2004:
Tumbling sales in durable consumer goods, like e.g. new car sales (light vehicles unit retail sales).
1977: 1969: 1430: 867: 401: 7567:"World Economic Outlook (WEO) April 2013: Statistical appendix – Table A1 – Summary of World Output" 7488: 7340: 6995: 6969: 2179: 9326: 9114: 8311: 7021: 5297:"The Sahm Rule has flashed, but there's a simpler recession indicator investors should be watching" 3908: 2960: 2780: 2621: 2020:
Non-residential construction spending (like e.g. offices and industrial plants) as measured by the
1524: 1488: 1442: 1372: 590: 555: 391: 8095: 7219: 6145: 2443:
the increase was a response to oil prices, and investment in other sectors had negligible growth.
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The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock) (WEI).
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yield curve inversion in history began in July 2022, as the Federal Reserve sharply increased the
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Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism
2509: 2459: 1356: 1317: 560: 482: 477: 449: 32: 6773: 6596: 6576: 6457: 6217: 4797: 4541:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of … the Labor Market?
2779:
The most recent recession to affect the United Kingdom was the 2020 recession attributed to the
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or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating
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wrote in December 2010 that significant, sustained government spending was necessary because
2192:
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago posts updates of the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI).
1248:
A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession is referred to as an
1174: 1141: 971: 900: 632: 607: 511: 444: 170: 133: 111: 106: 7096: 7039: 6138:"The latest US recession indicator just dropped — and it's a banger (Prepare for the wurst)" 8930: 8775: 4054:"Does He Pass the Test? 'Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises' by Timothy Geithner" 3496: 3340: 3055: 2813: 2394: 2209: 2053: 1991: 1905: 1685: 1288: 1055: 550: 364: 209: 8: 9537: 9029: 8884: 8792: 8744: 8712: 8693: 8440:"Pattern of Macroeconomic Indicators Preceding the End of an American Economic Recession" 8439: 7943: 7255: 3045: 3040: 2924:
economic activity reported for employment, industrial production, and consumer spending.
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which, when subtracted from the actual rate of unemployment, can be used to estimate the
2580:
Unemployment is particularly high during a recession. Many economists working within the
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adopted and is considered robust. The model, developed by economists Arturo Estrella and
2013: 1664: 1457:
expectations that cause savers to begin spending again. Government stimulus spending and
1450: 1446: 1434: 1210:(OECD) defines a recession as a period of at least two years during which the cumulative 1137:
for two consecutive quarters; a decline in industrial production over a six-month period.
760: 637: 472: 434: 175: 138: 4550:
Jason Bram, Robert Rich, and Joshua Abel ... Conference Board's Present Situation Index
3284: 1527:). Monetary policy changes can influence both the frequency and intensity of recessions. 597: 9514: 9499: 9489: 9469: 9464: 9459: 9454: 9448: 8766: 8734: 8540: 7147: 7077: 6559: 4737: 4214: 3718:
Jiří, Mazurek. "On some issues concerning definition of an economic recession." (2012).
3111: 3090: 2913: 2635: 2448: 2213: 2141:
it reflects reduced economic activity, lower consumer demand, and decreased employment.
1917: 1628: 1618: 1552: 1269: 1265: 1261: 1257: 1118: 712: 439: 406: 344: 8536: 8155: 7202:
A downturn in the property market, especially in turnover (sales) of properties, is a
4858: 9235: 9229: 9223: 8829: 8802: 8739: 8727: 8688: 8657: 8555: 8459: 7169: 7139: 7069: 6918: 6889: 6862: 6833: 6684: 6563: 6551: 5830:"The near-term forward yield spread as a leading indicator: A less distorted mirror," 5726: 5409:"2 under-the-radar recession signals are flashing red this month, research firm says" 5266:"2 under-the-radar recession signals are flashing red this month, research firm says" 4301: 4248: 4241: 4193: 4032: 3941: 3831: 3737: 3465: 3426: 3387: 3035: 2984: 2105: 1984: 1951: 1728:
Except for the above, there are no known completely reliable predictors. Analysis by
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as liquidity traps. One remedy to a liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via
1331: 1214:
reaches at least 2% of GDP, and the output gap is at least 1% for at least one year.
953: 915: 787: 775: 732: 577: 572: 296: 221: 7438: 7081: 4741: 4213:
Correia, Isabel; Farhi, Emmanuel; Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Teles, Pedro (August 2012).
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believed that government institutions could stimulate aggregate demand in a crisis:
647: 9316: 9311: 9157: 9146: 8807: 8797: 8707: 8667: 8662: 8637: 8632: 8628: 8451: 7059: 7051: 6543: 6438: 6347: 6043: 6039: 5837: 5722: 5543: 5539: 4854: 4729: 4189: 4185: 3227: 3085: 3060: 2676: 2659: 2647: 2628: 2531:(NBER) takes a few months to determine if a peak or trough has occurred in the US. 2452: 2403: 2280:
Table: Overview of predictive recession indicators with a simple threshold at zero
2222: 2084: 1898: 1822: 1729: 1648: 1568: 1405: 1398: 1281: 1253: 1238: 1093:, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. 1081:, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The 1059: 1043: 948: 943: 910: 895: 875: 722: 707: 233: 204: 192: 182: 118: 98: 68: 63: 8438:
Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Soloviev, A. A.; Intriligator, M. D.; Winberg, F. E. (2008).
7855: 7282: 6261: 6057: 5389: 4843:"Average work hours as a leading economic variable in US manufacturing industries" 3255: 3179: 2455:, the government resorts to unconventional monetary policy to stimulate recovery. 1724:
recessions between March 1967 – August 2019, while triggering only 2 false alarms.
9385: 9375: 9125: 9066: 9061: 9055: 8647: 8298: 8194: 8181: 8162: 8091: 8079: 8027: 7522: 7495: 7445: 7360: 7314: 6702: 6582: 6484: 6464: 6204: 5910: 4602: 4547: 4493: 3116: 2933: 2901: 2784: 2762: 2419: 2411: 2402:
favor the use of expansionary macroeconomic policy during recessions to increase
2230: 2113: 1940: 1768: 1754:
Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders.
1706: 1610: 1572: 1385: 1101: 1051: 824: 727: 687: 667: 533: 334: 329: 324: 291: 263: 123: 8524: 7407:"More Workers Complain of Bias on the Job, a Trend Linked to Widespread Layoffs" 1719:
When the CFNAI Diffusion Index drops below the value of −0.35, then there is an
1551:
factors that can cause a recession are plentiful: Besides credit risk like e.g.
8674: 8652: 7773: 7755: 6547: 3596:"The economy may look like it's in recession, but we still don't know for sure" 3070: 2758: 2754: 2474: 2267: 2266:
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month
2162: 1690: 1632: 1584: 1580: 1564: 1548: 1422: 1377: 1340: 1126: 1086: 1082: 1035: 782: 697: 692: 349: 199: 155: 73: 48: 40: 8572: 7806: 3674: 617: 9531: 9102: 9096: 9087: 9081: 9023: 9014: 9005: 8987: 8976: 8964: 8934: 8756: 8463: 7143: 7073: 6555: 6169:"Is a recession coming? Alan Greenspan says the answer is in men's underwear" 5841: 5440:"The unemployment measure you've never heard is flashing a recession warning" 4557: 3469: 3430: 3391: 3015: 2831: 2822: 2689:
growth of 3.0% or less in their view was "equivalent to a global recession".
2560: 2556: 1784: 1698: 1624: 1614: 1604: 1598: 1560: 1519: 1429:
theory that a situation can develop in which interest rates reach near zero (
1389: 1363: 1344: 1321: 1158: 1105: 1074: 905: 717: 702: 677: 662: 657: 652: 627: 622: 286: 248: 145: 8477: 5471:"Stock Market Crash: Expert Warns of 70% Potential Downside for S&P 500" 4941:"Stock Market Crash: Expert Warns of 70% Potential Downside for S&P 500" 4733: 4616:"Gundlach: We don't see a recession on the horizon. But there's bad news..." 4524:"10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" 4523: 3909:"The Conference Board – Consumer Confidence Survey Press Release – May 2010" 1388:, meaning their assets were worth less than their liabilities. Despite zero 8846: 8839: 8834: 8703: 8698: 8642: 6809:"United States Professional and Business Services: Temporary Help Services" 3030: 2729:
the unemployment level rose and the trade deficit increased significantly.
2702: 2655: 2605: 2548: 2470: 2252: 1702: 1636: 1530: 1513: 1484: 1476: 1458: 1454: 1438: 1393: 1368: 1299:
and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997–1998, although
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This article is about a slowdown in economic activity. For other uses, see
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Kenneth Rogoff, International Monetary Fund, Financial Times, 5 April 2002
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Jahan, Sarwat; Mahmud, Ahmed Saber; Papageorgiou, Chris (September 2014).
6396: 5688:"Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Continued to Trend Down in June" 3994:"Psychological Biases and Errors that led to historic bubbles and crashes" 2638:
in the United States in the 1930s may have extended the Great Depression.
1684:
Recessions are very challenging to predict. While some variables like the
9256: 8812: 8771: 8717: 8563: 6913:. In MacLean, Brian K.; Bougrine, Hassan; Rochon, Louis-Philippe (eds.). 6443: 6416:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?" 6379:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?" 6317: 6244:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?" 5975:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?" 5956:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?" 5857:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?" 5811:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?" 5669:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?" 5559:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?" 5164:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?" 4922:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?" 4903:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?" 4824:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?" 3717: 3280: 3080: 3050: 2521: 2431: 1588: 1556: 1541: 1242: 1234: 1170: 742: 253: 238: 7151: 7127: 6525: 6523: 1943:
less transfer payments. Real median household income is reported by the
9040: 8478:"Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research" 8437: 8165:
6 April 2009. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved 10 March 2020.
7596: 7594: 7064: 6076:"Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey - Comments from survey respondents" 5742:"Forecasting The Next Recession Using The Architectural Billings Index" 4715:"Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators" 4714: 3345: 2976: 2589: 2567:
in the 1960s, said that "I call it a Reagan-Volcker-Carter recession."
2407: 1834: 1576: 1211: 672: 602: 538: 489: 5501:"Income and wealth inequality make recessions worse, research reveals" 5038:
U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics
2975:
additional 156,000 jobs had been lost in September. On 29 April 2008,
1857:
business cycles since 1979 by an average of approximately four months.
8851: 8683: 8679: 8073:
Recession unlikely if US economy gets through next two crucial months
6755: 6520: 3734:
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics-Lessons from Japan's Great Recession
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Gauti B. Eggertsson of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, using a
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wrote in 2014 that "the best working hypothesis seems to be that the
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Dr. Richard J. Buczynski and Michael Bright, IBISWorld, January 2009
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Kaur, Rajwant; Sidhu, A.S. (Spring 2012). Sarkar, Siddhartha (ed.).
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is thought to have been caused by the tight-money policy adopted by
2075:
Business confidence surveys and expectations for business condition.
1303:'s eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped. 1066:). There is no official definition of a recession, according to the 7055: 6855:"Monetarism and Friedman's Restatement of Quantity Theory of Money" 6530:
Park, Byeong U.; Simar, Léopold; Zelenyuk, Valentin (15 May 2019).
4215:"Unconventional Fiscal Policy at the Zero Bound: Working Paper 698" 4085:"Presentation by Richard Koo – The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions" 2749: 2686: 2651: 2617: 2507:
Some recessions have been anticipated by stock market declines. In
1815: 1811: 1493: 1300: 1200: 1166: 1096:
Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary
1063: 6477: 6107:"Increased sausage demand could be worrying signal on the economy" 4688:"Grim Stock Signals Piling Up as Wall Street Mulls Recession Odds" 3764:"The world in balance sheet recession: causes, cure, and politics" 2809: 8021:
Economic Crisis: When will it End? IBISWorld Recession Briefing "
6218:"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S." 5053:"Why the inverted yield curve is typically a recession predictor" 4798:"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S." 4556:
This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the
3134:
Encarta World English Dictionary [North American Edition]
2634:, with a negative impact on the wider economy; the suspension of 1241:
as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and
7541:"Global Recession Risk Grows as U.S. "Damage" Spreads. Jan 2008" 7186:"From the subprime to the terrigenous: Recession begins at home" 7128:"Anatomy of the Financial Crisis: Between Keynes and Schumpeter" 6940:"Searching for supply-side effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" 6774:"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S." 4840: 3852:"Key Indicators 2001: Growth and Change in Asia and the Pacific" 7434: 7432: 7206:
indicator of recession, with a lead time of up to 9 quarters...
3707:. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 2008. 3526: 2631: 2613: 1660: 1639:, who theorized that financial markets are inherently unstable. 1090: 819: 7959:"Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity" 5836:. 2018–055. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 3801:"What is the difference between a recession and a depression?" 3180:"Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement January 7, 2008" 2495:
Anatomy of the Financial Crisis: Between Keynes and Schumpeter
1972:, confidence surveys like the index of consumer expectations ( 8278: 7912:"Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions" 7489:"IMF Predicts Slower World Growth Amid Serious Market Crisis" 5034:"Research Confirms Transportation Index as Leading Indicator" 4510:"US yield curve nears flip with jury out on recession signal" 1962:
Decline in wholesale/retail sales, which are reported by the
1312: 1292: 411: 187: 7882:"Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021" 7429: 6961: 5994:"Predicting a Bear Market: 7 Signs and Why it's Tough to Do" 5792:"Predicting a Bear Market: 7 Signs and Why it's Tough to Do" 3623:"What exactly is a recession? Sorting out a confusing topic" 6915:
Aggregate Demand and Employment: International Perspectives
5876:"Yield curve disinversion is the recession signal to watch" 5712: 3820:"Global Recession and Its Impact on Foreign Trade in India" 3573:"'Technical Recession' Sets Up Washington War of the Words" 3197: 2451:
reaches the boundary of an interest rate of 0%, called the
1933: 1751:
Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.
1740:
However, the following are considered possible predictors:
8094:; Andrews, Edmund L.; Labaton, Stephen (6 December 2008). 7964:. NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. 11 December 2008. 7636:"World Economic Outlook – April 2009: Crisis and Recovery" 2117:
market uncertainty and that a recession is on the horizon.
2083:
The value of debit balances in broker-dealers’ securities
1779:
Factory output, including factories, mines, and utilities.
7487:
Lall, Subir. International Monetary Fund, 9 April 2008.
7040:"What Fiscal Policy Is Effective at Zero Interest Rates?" 5913:
JPMorgan | The US Economic Outlook | Feb. 2020 | Page 22]
4243:
The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008
4212: 2126: 2095: 1652: 1078: 8361:"Fourth quarter 2008 Survey of Professional Forecasters" 7805:. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Archived from 6826:
Stiglitz, Joseph E.; Ocampo, José Antonio, eds. (2008).
6397:"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)" 6029: 4772:"Leading Economic Indicators and the Oncoming Recession" 2067:
deficit typically worsens strongly ahead of a recession.
1837:, which says that a divergence between the DJTA and the 8363:. Philadelphiafed.org. 17 November 2008. Archived from 8090: 7774:"UK officially in recession for first time in 11 years" 6967: 6911:"Chapter 1: Macroeconomic lessons from the past decade" 6542:(1). Springer Science and Business Media LLC: 379–392. 3341:"An economist explains: What to know about a recession" 2654:
are less affected by recessions than those who rely on
1465: 8339:"U.S. Economy Contracts Most Since the 2001 Recession" 7382:. Economic and Social Research Council. Archived from 6987: 5925:"Jeffrey Gundlach: 6 Signs Recession Is Near, or Here" 5828:
Engstrom, Eric C.; Sharpe, Steven A. (February 2019).
5235:"Jeffrey Gundlach: 6 Signs Recession Is Near, or Here" 4712: 1659:
Decline in external demand: For countries with strong
1208:
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
1106:
increasing government spending and decreasing taxation
1042:). This may be triggered by various events, such as a 7676:, Australian Bureau of Statistics, 27 February 1998, 6885:
Bucking The Deficit: Economic Policymaking In America
6198:
Leading Economic Indicators Suggest U.S. In Recession
5578:"An Economic Warning Sign: RV Shipments Are Slipping" 3650:"Yes, there is an official definition of a recession" 2971:
their pension savings decimated on the stock market.
2559:
took office. Reagan supported that policy. Economist
1324:
factors underlying economic activity. Keynes, in his
1102:
increasing money supply and decreasing interest rates
8096:"U.S. Loses 533,000 Jobs in Biggest Drop Since 1974" 7363:
p. 1. The Saylor Foundation. Retrieved 20 June 2012.
6595:
Estrella, Arturo; Mishkin, Frederic S. (June 1996).
6013:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics" 4470:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics" 4432:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics" 4413:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics" 4394:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics" 4375:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics" 4356:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics" 3876: 3675:"Recession | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)" 3554:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics" 3162:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics" 1860:
Light truck sales are seen as a recession predictor.
1709:, to try to predict the possibility of a recession: 1327:
The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
8275:"Fragile economy improves but not out of woods yet" 7451: 6819: 6597:"The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions" 4319: 4317: 3495:Lakshman, Achuthan; Banerji, Anirvan (7 May 2008). 2805:
Recessions in the United States – 1930 through 2021
2616:, which may create a mini-recession in the region. 2373:
Retail Indicator: Decline In Wholesale/Retail Sales
2165:
to see men’s underwear as a key economic predictor.
1647:Adverse events: Unexpected major world events like 7797: 7795: 6938:Gale, William G.; Haldeman, Claire (6 July 2021). 4489:"Why everyone was so wrong about the 2023 economy" 4240: 3991: 3927: 3419:"U.S. to Broaden the Base Of Consumer Price Index" 2434:economists promote tax cuts to stimulate business 2098:is a critical commodity input for many industries. 1635:. This term is named after the American economist 8184:CNN/Money. 3 April 2009. Retrieved 10 March 2020. 6994:Jahan, Sarwat; Papageorgiou, Chris (March 2014). 6993: 6931: 6529: 4287: 4206: 2912:Since then, the NBER has also declared a 2-month 9529: 7630: 7628: 7543:. Bloomberg L.P. 28 January 2008. Archived from 7251:"Recession Predictions and Investment Decisions" 6654:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 5529: 4325:"A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers" 4314: 4220:. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. p. 1 3306:Bonham, Mark S.; Poulin, Jessica (6 July 2023). 2627:Recessions have also provided opportunities for 8387:"Text of the NBER's statement on the recession" 7792: 7031: 6970:"What Is Keynesian Economics? – Back to Basics" 6594: 4596:Consumer Confidence Drops – Why Does It Matter? 4269:"How Much of the World is in a Liquidity Trap?" 3934:Akerlof, George A.; Shiller, Robert J. (2010). 3494: 2783:global pandemic, the first recession since the 1974:University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 1483:In April 2009, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair 1475:and can cause or deepen a recession. Economist 7013: 6825: 5922: 5827: 5232: 5190:New York University's Stern School of Business 4888:New York University's Stern School of Business 4329:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco speeches 4169: 3933: 2012:Housing starts and construction, specifically 8594: 7625: 6875: 6829:Capital Market Liberalization and Development 6318:"Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock)" 6010: 4467: 4429: 4410: 4391: 4372: 4353: 4293: 4184:. Palgrave Macmillan UK. pp. 7929–7936. 3811: 3551: 3159: 3137:. Microsoft Corporation. 2007. Archived from 2356:Employment Indicator: Temporary Help Services 2185:The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas posts the 1523:leading to a recession (creating a so called 1275: 1161:, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the 1007: 844: 8312:"Gross Domestic Product: Third quarter 2008" 7756:"Eurozone recession deepened at end of 2012" 7705:, Melbourne, 2 December 2006, archived from 6937: 6756:"U.S. 10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread" 6487:(March 2006). FEDs Working Paper No. 2006-7. 4271:. Krugman.blogs.nytimes.com. 17 March 2010. 4232: 4147:"Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap" 3701:"OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2008 Issue 2" 3641: 3527:"Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions" 3305: 3271: 3269: 2322:Leading Indicator: US Leading Economic Index 2174:Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (LEI) 1135:Declines in real gross national income (GNI) 7511: 7509: 7507: 7505: 7503: 7377: 7188:. Land Values Research Group. 2 June 2009. 6615:"Labor Model Predicts Lower Recession Odds" 5923:Wisenberg Brin, Dinah (11 September 2024). 5233:Wisenberg Brin, Dinah (11 September 2024). 4294:Lipsey, Richard G.; Harbury, Colin (1992). 3824:International Journal of Afro-Asian Studies 3798: 3727: 3725: 3648:Loe, Megan; Lewis, Brandon (28 July 2022). 3521: 3519: 1978:Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 1140:In terms of depth – A 1.5% decline in real 8601: 8587: 8573:Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions 7119: 7097:"Opinion – Block Those Economic Metaphors" 7037: 6902: 6846: 6504:. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2020. 6058:"GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta" 6032:Journal of International Money and Finance 4175: 3940:. Princeton University Press. p. 23. 3757: 3755: 3753: 3458:"Recession: Some Criteria Missing, So Far" 2963:significantly contributed to a recession. 2943:details the many elements of this period. 2339:Employment Indicator: Full Time Employment 2305:Yield Curve Indicator: 10y-3m Yield Spread 2187:Texas Index of Leading Economic Indicators 2008:Housing and non-residential construction: 1350: 1014: 1000: 851: 837: 8124: 7830:"It's official: Recession since Dec. '07" 7516:Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies 7378:Vaitilingam, Romesh (17 September 2009). 7063: 7019: 6646:"Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals" 6478:The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions 6442: 6011:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011). 5437: 5051:Smith, Stacey Vanek (12 September 2024). 4841:Stuart M. Glosser, Lonnie Golden (1997). 4507: 4468:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011). 4430:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011). 4411:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011). 4392:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011). 4373:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011). 4354:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011). 3817: 3736:. John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd. 3552:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011). 3266: 3160:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011). 1085:has adopted a similar definition. In the 8575:The National Bureau Of Economic Research 7858:. BBC News – Business. 29 October 2009. 7559: 7500: 7373: 7371: 7369: 6881: 6498:"The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator" 6166: 6135: 5873: 5325: 4448: 4300:. Oxford University Press. p. 294. 4182:The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 4016: 3722: 3647: 3620: 3529:. National Bureau of Economic Research. 3516: 2808: 2800: 2775:List of recessions in the United Kingdom 1663:sectors, a decline in demand from major 1306: 8444:Journal of Pattern Recognition Research 8336: 8219: 8041: 7827: 7733:, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 7404: 7217: 7094: 7038:Eggertsson, Gauti B. (1 January 2011). 6917:. Edward Elgar Publishing. p. 29. 6401:FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6352:FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6348:"Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities" 6322:FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6104: 5991: 5834:Finance and Economics Discussion Series 5789: 5468: 5406: 5356: 5263: 5081: 4938: 4238: 4144: 4113: 4051: 3960: 3911:. Conference-board.org. 25 March 2010. 3750: 3667: 3377: 3066:List of recessions in the United States 2953:United States housing market correction 2797:List of recessions in the United States 2388: 2255:, was published in October 2019 by the 1999:personal consumption expenditure growth 1830:Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) 1500: 9530: 8421:"Daniel Gross: The Recession is Over?" 7803:"Percent change from preceding period" 7535: 7533: 7531: 7405:Rampell, Catherine (11 January 2011). 7331:Church, George J. (23 November 1981). 7330: 6996:"What Is Monetarism? – Back to Basics" 6432: 6413: 6376: 6241: 5972: 5953: 5935:from the original on 17 September 2024 5854: 5808: 5770: 5739: 5666: 5556: 5450:from the original on 28 September 2024 5438:Goldstein, Steve (18 September 2024). 5419:from the original on 28 September 2024 5276:from the original on 28 September 2024 5245:from the original on 17 September 2024 5180: 5161: 5112: 5094:from the original on 13 September 2024 5084:"How Bad Is The U.S. Economy In 2019?" 5063:from the original on 13 September 2024 4919: 4900: 4878: 4821: 4769: 4622:from the original on 25 September 2019 3961:Shiller, Robert J. (27 January 2009). 3792: 3570: 3338: 1945:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 1767:(Manufacturing Services, Chicago) and 1487:discussed these paradoxes: "Once this 1046:, an external trade shock, an adverse 161:Measures of national income and output 8582: 8534: 8415: 8397:from the original on 14 November 2010 8337:Chandra, Shobhana (30 October 2008). 8246: 7951: 7940: 7726: 7652:from the original on 31 December 2010 7613:from the original on 28 February 2019 7600: 7469:from the original on 21 February 2009 7366: 7248: 7125: 6908: 6852: 6736:from the original on 1 September 2024 6023: 5752:from the original on 29 November 2022 5575: 5511:from the original on 13 December 2019 5481:from the original on 1 September 2024 5387: 5050: 5014:from the original on 13 December 2019 4951:from the original on 1 September 2024 4082: 4029:Reader's Guide to the Social Sciences 3973:from the original on 11 February 2020 3877:Samuelson, Robert J. (14 June 2010). 3250: 3248: 987:Industrialization in the Soviet Union 8127:"U.S. lost 2.6 million jobs in 2008" 8002:from the original on 7 December 2017 7989: 7680:from the original on 16 October 2015 7289:from the original on 2 February 2008 6861:. S. Chand Publishing. p. 527. 6791:"United States Full Time Employment" 6682: 6643: 6601:The Federal Reserve Bank of New York 5715:International Journal of Forecasting 5407:Cloonan, Kelly (25 September 2024). 5264:Cloonan, Kelly (25 September 2024). 4982:from the original on 8 February 2020 4847:International Journal of Forecasting 4605:Forbes. 27 June 2019. Brad McMillan. 4486: 4064:from the original on 5 November 2015 4022: 3879:"Our economy's crisis of confidence" 3762:Koo, Richard C. (12 December 2011). 3455: 3416: 2529:National Bureau of Economic Research 2276:Simple Recession Indicator Tracker: 2227:National Bureau of Economic Research 2060:The S&P 500 and BBB bond spread. 1466:Paradoxes of thrift and deleveraging 1163:National Bureau of Economic Research 8318:from the original on 14 August 2018 8228:from the original on 6 October 2013 8201:from the original on 6 October 2009 8125:Uchitelle, Louis (9 January 2009). 8054:from the original on 11 August 2019 8044:"Employment Falls for Second Month" 8042:Andrews, Edmund L. (7 March 2008). 7836:from the original on 14 August 2021 7780:from the original on 12 August 2020 7528: 7168:, 3rd, New York: McGraw-Hill, 388. 7107:from the original on 20 August 2019 7020:Skaperdas, Arsenios (7 July 2017). 6723: 6625:from the original on 19 August 2020 6179:from the original on 29 August 2024 6117:from the original on 29 August 2024 6086:from the original on 29 August 2024 6062:The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5886:from the original on 30 August 2024 5648:from the original on 24 August 2024 5618:from the original on 24 August 2024 5469:Edwards, William (31 August 2024). 5369:from the original on 29 August 2024 5338:from the original on 29 August 2024 5307:from the original on 27 August 2024 5294: 5214:from the original on 24 August 2024 5143:from the original on 24 August 2024 4969: 4939:Edwards, William (31 August 2024). 4690:. Bloomberg L.P. 25 November 2018. 4335:from the original on 5 January 2013 3761: 3731: 3681:. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2022 3593: 3378:Shiskin, Julius (1 December 1974). 3353:from the original on 14 August 2024 3320:from the original on 23 August 2024 1839:Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 13: 8905:British credit crisis of 1772–1773 8251:. Clevelandfed.org. Archived from 7971:from the original on 19 April 2009 7892:from the original on 26 April 2022 7828:Isidore, Chris (1 December 2008). 7283:"Economy puts Republicans at risk" 7220:"Why Home Prices May Keep Falling" 7218:Shiller, Robert J. (6 June 2009). 7095:Krugman, Paul (13 December 2010). 6664:from the original on 31 March 2020 6223:from the original on 4 August 2024 6167:Goodkind, Nicole (26 March 2022). 6136:Ashworth, Louis (27 August 2024). 6080:The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 5694:from the original on 4 August 2024 5357:Edwards, William (3 August 2024). 4803:from the original on 4 August 2024 4778:from the original on 4 August 2024 4722:Review of Economics and Statistics 4618:Yahoo! Finance. 14 February 2019. 4508:Barbuscia, Davide (29 July 2024). 4449:Cochrane, John (7 December 2022). 4275:from the original on 24 April 2020 4157:from the original on 21 April 2021 4145:Krugman, Paul (18 November 2010). 4126:from the original on 15 April 2021 3992:How to be an Adult (13 May 2020). 3889:from the original on 26 March 2020 3497:"The risk of redefining recession" 3417:Dale, Edwin L. Jr (6 April 1974). 3398:from the original on 25 March 2020 3245: 3208:from the original on 29 April 2022 2946: 2857: Effective Federal Funds Rate 2517:were not followed by a recession. 2426:economists may advocate increased 2169:Overview of recession indicators: 977:Economic history of the Arab world 14: 9559: 8618:Commonwealth of Nations countries 8546:Concise Encyclopedia of Economics 8504: 8488:from the original on 2 March 2021 8220:Goldman, David (9 January 2009). 8175:2 million jobs lost so far in '09 8137:from the original on 1 March 2020 8106:from the original on 9 April 2009 7922:from the original on 29 July 2022 7862:from the original on 28 July 2020 7459:"The world economy Bad, or worse" 7417:from the original on 23 July 2016 7263:from the original on 28 July 2020 7249:Sloan, Allan (11 December 2007). 7192:from the original on 12 June 2009 6328:from the original on 19 July 2021 5740:Mackie, Kevin (7 December 2018). 5576:Raice, Shayndi (19 August 2019). 4751:from the original on 6 April 2020 4694:from the original on 4 March 2020 4004:from the original on 28 July 2020 3915:from the original on 3 March 2020 3629:from the original on 27 July 2022 3602:from the original on 28 July 2022 3533:from the original on 5 March 2020 3476:from the original on 27 July 2022 3437:from the original on 27 July 2022 3220: 3190: 2768: 2743: 2650:of people dependent on wages and 2641: 2180:Euro Area Leading Indicator (ALI) 2153:Unorthodox Recession Indicators: 2043:Receiver Operating Characteristic 2022:Architecture Billings Index (ABI) 1416: 1221:instead of decline of total GDP. 8551:Library of Economics and Liberty 8470: 8431: 8409: 8379: 8353: 8330: 8304: 8285: 8277:. Yahoo! Finance. 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(2018). 4027:. In Michie, Jonathan (ed.). 3799:Saul Eslake (November 2008). 3097: 3076:Stock market crashes in India 2927: 2440:Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 2261:Federal Reserve Economic Data 2216:. Another model developed by 1679: 1651:and geopolitical events like 1471:simultaneously is called the 1224: 7603:"What's a Global Recession?" 7601:Davis, Bob (22 April 2009). 6644:Sahm, Claudia (6 May 2019). 3277:"Glossary of Treasury terms" 2957:United States housing bubble 2708: 2586:natural rate of unemployment 2565:Council of Economic Advisers 2515:Dow Jones Industrial Average 1217:Recession can be defined as 7: 9360:1997 Asian financial crisis 8993:Civil War-era United States 8535:Moore, Geoffrey H. (2002). 7776:. The BBC. 12 August 2020. 6832:. OUP Oxford. p. 360. 6017:International Monetary Fund 5183:"Business-Cycle Indicators" 5002:"Cass Freight Index Report" 4881:"Business-Cycle Indicators" 4474:International Monetary Fund 4436:International Monetary Fund 4417:International Monetary Fund 4398:International Monetary Fund 4379:International Monetary Fund 4360:International Monetary Fund 4025:"Accounting, balance sheet" 3771:Real-World Economics Review 3558:International Monetary Fund 3166:International Monetary Fund 3011:1991 Indian economic crisis 3003: 2851: 3 month Treasury Bond 2839: 10 Year Treasury Bond 2683:International Monetary Fund 2600: 2410:, exemplified by economist 1734:International Monetary Fund 1187:Bureau of Economic Analysis 10: 9564: 9136:Post–World War I recession 8956:Post-Napoleonic Depression 7164:Siegel, Jeremy J. (2002). 7044:NBER Macroeconomics Annual 6882:Thornton, Saranna (2018). 6548:10.1007/s00181-019-01708-2 3594:Cox, Jeff (28 July 2022). 2931: 2896:March 2001 – November 2001 2845: 2 Year Treasury Bond 2816:correlation to recessions 2794: 2772: 2674: 2665: 2430:to spark economic growth. 2392: 2263:(FRED). It is defined as: 2214:Fed's overnight funds rate 2145:GDP per capita contraction 1380:as it pays down its debt. 1354: 1279: 1276:Type of recession or shape 1124:Bureau of Labor Statistics 982:Economy of the Inca Empire 517:New neoclassical synthesis 500:Real business-cycle theory 21:Recession (disambiguation) 18: 16:Business cycle contraction 9374: 9310: 9255: 9209: 9124: 9046:2nd Industrial Revolution 9039: 8986: 8979:(1836–1838 and 1839–1843) 8895:1st Industrial Revolution 8893: 8862: 8663:Price-and-wage stickiness 8624: 8525:Resources in your library 8301:, 16 June 2008, Newsweek. 7359:12 September 2012 at the 7333:"Ready for a Real Downer" 6977:Finance & Development 6888:. Routledge. p. 30. 5638:"Recessionary Indicators" 5608:"Recessionary Indicators" 5204:"Recessionary Indicators" 5133:"Recessionary Indicators" 4031:. Routledge. p. 11. 3854:. ADB.org. Archived from 3313:The Canadian Encyclopedia 2902:December 2007 – June 2009 2884:July 1981 – November 1982 2670: 2414:, would favor the use of 2257:St. Louis Federal Reserve 1695:2021–2023 inflation surge 1605:Interest rate distortions 1431:zero interest-rate policy 1219:decline of GDP per capita 9327:1990s United States boom 9115:Financial crisis of 1914 8197:. Bls.gov. 2 July 2010. 7494:28 February 2009 at the 7444:12 December 2008 at the 7285:. BBC. 29 January 2008. 7126:Nayak, Pulin B. (2009). 5842:10.17016/FEDS.2018.055r1 5773:"Bear Market Indicators" 5115:"Bear Market Indicators" 4853:(2). Elsevier: 175–195. 4116:"Notes On Koo (Wonkish)" 4058:New York Review of Books 3773:(58): 19. Archived from 3131:"Recession definition". 2961:subprime mortgage crisis 2823:30 year mortgage average 2765:economies all affected. 2251:, named after economist 2249:Sahm Recession Indicator 2133:Gross Domestic Product: 1667:can trigger a recession. 522:Saltwater and freshwater 9142:Depression of 1920–1921 9074:Depression of 1882–1885 8988:Early Victorian Britain 8723:Real and nominal values 8180:11 January 2020 at the 7996:The Wall Street Journal 7607:The Wall Street Journal 7319:Senate Budget Committee 7313:4 February 2011 at the 7003:Finance and Development 6619:The Wall Street Journal 5909:6 December 2020 at the 5582:The Wall Street Journal 4734:10.1162/003465398557320 3967:The Wall Street Journal 2879:considered recessions: 2510:Stocks for the Long Run 2071:Business Expectations: 1775:Industrial Production: 1357:Balance sheet recession 1351:Balance sheet recession 1133:In terms of duration – 882:Particular histories of 450:International economics 375:Overlapping generations 9247:Recession of 1969–1970 9242:Recession of 1960–1961 9201:Recession of 1937–1938 8297:1 October 2009 at the 8078:12 August 2011 at the 7645:. IMF. 24 April 2009. 7572:. IMF. 16 April 2013. 7521:9 January 2020 at the 6414:Kelley, David (2019). 6377:Kelley, David (2019). 6242:Kelley, David (2019). 5973:Kelley, David (2019). 5954:Kelley, David (2019). 5855:Kelley, David (2019). 5809:Kelley, David (2019). 5667:Kelley, David (2019). 5557:Kelley, David (2019). 5181:Backus, David (2024). 5162:Kelley, David (2019). 4920:Kelley, David (2019). 4901:Kelley, David (2019). 4879:Backus, David (2024). 4822:Kelley, David (2019). 4239:Krugman, Paul (2009). 2955:(a consequence of the 2890:July 1990 – March 1991 2875: 2806: 2584:argue that there is a 2500: 2272: 2127:Volatility Index (VIX) 1876:Decreasing job growth. 1823:Baltic Dry Index (BDI) 1686:(inverted) yield curve 1337:availability heuristic 1122:, Commissioner of the 1098:macroeconomic policies 793:Mathematical economics 544:Modern monetary theory 307:Universal basic income 9365:Early 2000s recession 9332:Early 1990s recession 9284:Early 1980s recession 8864:Commercial revolution 8762:Nominal interest rate 8484:. 20 September 2010. 8161:6 August 2020 at the 6581:19 March 2020 at the 6476:Wright, Jonathan H., 6262:"Texas Leading Index" 4601:18 March 2020 at the 4023:Jupe, Robert (2014). 3732:Koo, Richard (2009). 3308:"Recession in Canada" 2832:30 Year Treasury Bond 2814:Inverted yield curves 2812: 2804: 2582:neoclassical paradigm 2553:Federal Reserve Board 2486: 2264: 1970:Consumer expectations 1721:increased probability 1489:massive credit crunch 1392:and expansion of the 1307:Psychological aspects 1289:double-dip recessions 1175:industrial production 1142:gross national income 1116:In a 1974 article by 1050:, the bursting of an 972:Economic antisemitism 633:Wesley Clair Mitchell 608:Thomas Robert Malthus 445:Development economics 8931:Copper Panic of 1789 7730:Australian Recession 6853:Ahuja, H.L. (2019). 6777:The Conference Board 6483:28 July 2020 at the 5771:Fisher, Ken (2024). 5113:Fisher, Ken (2024). 4770:Ozyildirim, Ataman. 4728:. MIT Press: 45–61. 3056:Hindu rate of growth 2400:Keynesian economists 2395:Stabilization policy 2389:Government responses 2210:inverted yield curve 2054:inverted yield curve 1992:recreational vehicle 1757:Manufacturing sales. 1501:Causes of recessions 370:Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans 210:Liquidity preference 9267:1973–1975 recession 9211:Post–WWII expansion 8885:Great Frost of 1709 8713:Neutrality of money 8694:Classical dichotomy 8610:Economic expansions 8541:Henderson, David R. 8393:. 1 December 2008. 8026:14 May 2011 at the 7944:The Washington Post 7762:. 14 February 2013. 7643:Box 1.1 (pp. 11–14) 7256:The Washington Post 6909:Mason, J.W (2020). 6859:Macroeconomics, 20e 6621:. 28 January 2008. 6536:Empirical Economics 6354:. 1 February 1967. 6203:6 July 2009 at the 5040:. 15 December 2017. 4546:14 May 2020 at the 4455:Stanford University 3883:The Washington Post 3046:Flooding the market 3041:Economic stagnation 2968:2007–2009 recession 2719:foreign investments 2489:multiplier process. 2482:John Maynard Keynes 2475:indebted households 2428:government spending 2291:Recession Threshold 2288:Recession Indicator 2281: 1864:Corporate Profits: 1791:Chemical Activity: 1537:Financial factors: 1451:quantitative easing 1447:Japan's lost decade 1443:U.S. 2009 recession 1435:pushing on a string 1250:economic depression 1054:, or a large-scale 825:Business portal 761:Macroeconomic model 638:John Maynard Keynes 435:Economic statistics 380:General equilibrium 9449:COVID-19 recession 9109:Panic of 1910–1911 8941:Panic of 1796–1797 8767:Real interest rate 8735:Economic expansion 8131:The New York Times 8100:The New York Times 8048:The New York Times 7525:IMF. January 2009. 7465:. 9 October 2008. 7411:The New York Times 7308:The Bush Recession 7224:The New York Times 7101:The New York Times 6463:7 May 2019 at the 6444:10.7910/DVN/AWWQPN 6324:. 5 January 2008. 6082:. 26 August 2024. 5777:Fisher Investments 5119:Fisher Investments 4120:The New York Times 3780:on 10 January 2020 3462:The New York Times 3423:The New York Times 3384:The New York Times 3287:on 2 November 2012 3120:. Merriam-Webster. 3091:COVID-19 recession 2914:COVID-19 recession 2876: 2807: 2636:competition policy 2563:, chairman of the 2551:, chairman of the 2449:federal funds rate 2279: 1964:U.S. Census Bureau 1918:David Blanchflower 1619:stock market crash 1553:concentration risk 1509:Economic factors: 1119:The New York Times 963:Prominent examples 713:Edward C. Prescott 440:Monetary economics 9525: 9524: 9236:Recession of 1958 9230:Recession of 1953 9224:Recession of 1949 8921:Thirteen Colonies 8728:Velocity of money 8658:Paradox of thrift 8511:Library resources 8255:on 5 October 2008 7809:on 14 August 2018 7386:on 2 January 2010 7354:Unemployment Rate 7343:on 23 April 2008. 7174:978-0-07-137048-6 6924:978-1-78643-205-6 6895:978-0-429-97052-8 6868:978-93-5283-732-8 6839:978-0-19-923058-7 6467:By Michael Hudson 6435:Harvard Dataverse 6148:on 29 August 2024 6064:. 10 August 2024. 5532:World Development 4970:Premack, Rachel. 4331:. 16 April 2009. 4307:978-0-297-82120-5 4254:978-0-393-07101-6 4199:978-1-349-95189-5 4038:978-1-135-93226-8 3947:978-1-4008-3472-3 3743:978-0-470-82494-8 3705:oecd-ilibrary.org 3186:. 7 January 2008. 3036:Economic collapse 2985:unemployment rate 2681:According to the 2543:For example, the 2386: 2385: 2376:YoY change < 0 2359:YoY change < 0 2342:YoY change < 0 2325:YoY change < 0 2242:unemployment rate 2238:unemployment rate 2106:consumer spending 1985:consumer spending 1952:income inequality 1928:Personal Income: 1818:volumes of goods. 1649:natural disasters 1599:Credit tightening 1473:paradox of thrift 1332:Robert J. Shiller 1024: 1023: 861: 860: 788:Political economy 743:N. Gregory Mankiw 733:Thomas J. Sargent 578:Market monetarism 392:Endogenous growth 222:National accounts 9555: 9317:Great Regression 9312:Great Moderation 9158:Great Depression 9147:Roaring Twenties 8668:Underconsumption 8638:Effective demand 8629:Aggregate demand 8603: 8596: 8589: 8580: 8579: 8554: 8549:(1st ed.). 8498: 8497: 8495: 8493: 8474: 8468: 8467: 8435: 8429: 8428: 8419:(13 July 2009). 8413: 8407: 8406: 8404: 8402: 8383: 8377: 8376: 8374: 8372: 8357: 8351: 8350: 8348: 8346: 8334: 8328: 8327: 8325: 8323: 8308: 8302: 8289: 8283: 8282: 8271: 8265: 8264: 8262: 8260: 8244: 8238: 8237: 8235: 8233: 8217: 8211: 8210: 8208: 8206: 8191: 8185: 8172: 8166: 8153: 8147: 8146: 8144: 8142: 8122: 8116: 8115: 8113: 8111: 8092:Uchitelle, Louis 8088: 8082: 8070: 8064: 8063: 8061: 8059: 8039: 8033: 8018: 8012: 8011: 8009: 8007: 7987: 7981: 7980: 7978: 7976: 7970: 7963: 7955: 7949: 7948: 7938: 7932: 7931: 7929: 7927: 7908: 7902: 7901: 7899: 7897: 7888:. 19 July 2021. 7878: 7872: 7871: 7869: 7867: 7852: 7846: 7845: 7843: 7841: 7825: 7819: 7818: 7816: 7814: 7799: 7790: 7789: 7787: 7785: 7770: 7764: 7763: 7752: 7746: 7745: 7744: 7742: 7724: 7718: 7717: 7716: 7714: 7709:on 12 April 2014 7695: 7689: 7688: 7687: 7685: 7668: 7662: 7661: 7659: 7657: 7651: 7640: 7632: 7623: 7622: 7620: 7618: 7598: 7589: 7588: 7586: 7584: 7578: 7571: 7563: 7557: 7556: 7554: 7552: 7547:on 21 March 2010 7537: 7526: 7513: 7498: 7485: 7479: 7478: 7476: 7474: 7455: 7449: 7436: 7427: 7426: 7424: 7422: 7402: 7396: 7395: 7393: 7391: 7375: 7364: 7351: 7345: 7344: 7339:. 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Archived from 3796: 3790: 3789: 3787: 3785: 3779: 3768: 3759: 3748: 3747: 3729: 3720: 3715: 3709: 3708: 3697: 3691: 3690: 3688: 3686: 3671: 3665: 3664: 3662: 3660: 3645: 3639: 3638: 3636: 3634: 3618: 3612: 3611: 3609: 3607: 3591: 3585: 3584: 3582: 3580: 3575:. Bloomberg News 3568: 3562: 3561: 3549: 3543: 3542: 3540: 3538: 3523: 3514: 3513: 3511: 3509: 3492: 3486: 3485: 3483: 3481: 3453: 3447: 3446: 3444: 3442: 3414: 3408: 3407: 3405: 3403: 3380:"Points of View" 3375: 3369: 3363: 3362: 3360: 3358: 3336: 3330: 3329: 3327: 3325: 3303: 3297: 3296: 3294: 3292: 3283:. Archived from 3273: 3264: 3263: 3252: 3243: 3242: 3240: 3238: 3224: 3218: 3217: 3215: 3213: 3194: 3188: 3187: 3176: 3170: 3169: 3157: 3151: 3150: 3148: 3146: 3141:on 28 March 2009 3128: 3122: 3121: 3108: 3086:Underconsumption 3061:Inventory bounce 2871: 2862: 2856: 2850: 2844: 2838: 2829: 2820: 2695:global recession 2677:Global recession 2660:welfare benefits 2648:living standards 2629:anti-competitive 2618:Global epidemics 2498: 2453:zero lower bound 2404:aggregate demand 2285:Recession Signal 2282: 2278: 2223:Frederic Mishkin 2102:Commodity prices 2029:Credit Markets: 2014:building permits 1906:Conference Board 1899:Jeffrey Gundlach 1806:Transportation: 1730:Prakash Loungani 1665:trading partners 1643:External shocks 1569:refinancing risk 1555:, there is also 1406:deficit spending 1399:Great Depression 1373:financial crisis 1282:Recession shapes 1254:recession shapes 1239:corporate sector 1060:natural disaster 1044:financial crisis 1016: 1009: 1002: 949:Financial crisis 944:Economic miracle 930:Economics events 921:Social democracy 876:Economic history 863: 862: 853: 846: 839: 823: 822: 813:Money portal 811: 810: 809: 723:William Nordhaus 708:Robert Lucas Jr. 598:François Quesnay 234:Nominal rigidity 205:Demand for money 183:Microfoundations 119:Financial crisis 99:Effective demand 69:Aggregate supply 64:Aggregate demand 51: 28: 27: 9563: 9562: 9558: 9557: 9556: 9554: 9553: 9552: 9528: 9527: 9526: 9521: 9386:Great Recession 9378: 9376:Information Age 9370: 9319: 9315: 9306: 9259: 9257:Great Inflation 9251: 9213: 9205: 9128: 9126:Interwar period 9120: 9056:Long Depression 9048: 9044: 9035: 8995: 8991: 8982: 8897: 8889: 8866: 8858: 8823:U.S. recessions 8818:U.K. recessions 8750:U.S. expansions 8620: 8607: 8531: 8530: 8529: 8519: 8518: 8514: 8507: 8502: 8501: 8491: 8489: 8476: 8475: 8471: 8456:10.13176/11.106 8436: 8432: 8414: 8410: 8400: 8398: 8385: 8384: 8380: 8370: 8368: 8359: 8358: 8354: 8344: 8342: 8335: 8331: 8321: 8319: 8310: 8309: 8305: 8299:Wayback Machine 8290: 8286: 8281:on 7 July 2008. 8273: 8272: 8268: 8258: 8256: 8245: 8241: 8231: 8229: 8218: 8214: 8204: 8202: 8193: 8192: 8188: 8182:Wayback Machine 8173: 8169: 8163:Wayback Machine 8154: 8150: 8140: 8138: 8123: 8119: 8109: 8107: 8089: 8085: 8080:Wayback Machine 8071: 8067: 8057: 8055: 8040: 8036: 8028:Wayback Machine 8019: 8015: 8005: 8003: 7988: 7984: 7974: 7972: 7968: 7961: 7957: 7956: 7952: 7939: 7935: 7925: 7923: 7910: 7909: 7905: 7895: 7893: 7880: 7879: 7875: 7865: 7863: 7854: 7853: 7849: 7839: 7837: 7826: 7822: 7812: 7810: 7801: 7800: 7793: 7783: 7781: 7772: 7771: 7767: 7754: 7753: 7749: 7740: 7738: 7725: 7721: 7712: 7710: 7697: 7696: 7692: 7683: 7681: 7670: 7669: 7665: 7655: 7653: 7649: 7638: 7634: 7633: 7626: 7616: 7614: 7599: 7592: 7582: 7580: 7576: 7569: 7565: 7564: 7560: 7550: 7548: 7539: 7538: 7529: 7523:Wayback Machine 7514: 7501: 7496:Wayback Machine 7486: 7482: 7472: 7470: 7457: 7456: 7452: 7446:Wayback Machine 7437: 7430: 7420: 7418: 7403: 7399: 7389: 7387: 7376: 7367: 7361:Wayback Machine 7352: 7348: 7329: 7325: 7315:Wayback Machine 7306: 7302: 7292: 7290: 7281: 7280: 7276: 7266: 7264: 7247: 7243: 7233: 7231: 7216: 7212: 7195: 7193: 7184: 7183: 7179: 7163: 7159: 7124: 7120: 7110: 7108: 7093: 7089: 7036: 7032: 7027:. pp. 2–3. 7024: 7018: 7014: 6998: 6992: 6988: 6972: 6966: 6962: 6952: 6950: 6942: 6936: 6932: 6925: 6907: 6903: 6896: 6880: 6876: 6869: 6851: 6847: 6840: 6824: 6820: 6807: 6806: 6802: 6789: 6788: 6784: 6772: 6771: 6767: 6754: 6753: 6749: 6739: 6737: 6722: 6718: 6701: 6700: 6696: 6681: 6677: 6667: 6665: 6661: 6648: 6642: 6638: 6628: 6626: 6613: 6612: 6608: 6593: 6589: 6583:Wayback Machine 6575: 6571: 6528: 6521: 6511: 6509: 6496: 6495: 6491: 6485:Wayback Machine 6475: 6471: 6465:Wayback Machine 6456: 6452: 6431: 6427: 6412: 6408: 6395: 6394: 6390: 6375: 6371: 6361: 6359: 6346: 6345: 6341: 6331: 6329: 6316: 6315: 6311: 6301: 6299: 6286: 6285: 6281: 6271: 6269: 6260: 6259: 6255: 6240: 6236: 6226: 6224: 6216: 6215: 6211: 6207:21 January 2008 6205:Wayback Machine 6196: 6192: 6182: 6180: 6165: 6161: 6151: 6149: 6142:Financial Times 6134: 6130: 6120: 6118: 6103: 6099: 6089: 6087: 6074: 6073: 6069: 6056: 6055: 6051: 6028: 6024: 6009: 6005: 5990: 5986: 5971: 5967: 5952: 5948: 5938: 5936: 5921: 5917: 5911:Wayback Machine 5903: 5899: 5889: 5887: 5872: 5868: 5853: 5849: 5826: 5822: 5807: 5803: 5788: 5784: 5769: 5765: 5755: 5753: 5738: 5734: 5711: 5707: 5697: 5695: 5684: 5680: 5665: 5661: 5651: 5649: 5636: 5635: 5631: 5621: 5619: 5606: 5605: 5601: 5591: 5589: 5574: 5570: 5555: 5551: 5528: 5524: 5514: 5512: 5499: 5498: 5494: 5484: 5482: 5467: 5463: 5453: 5451: 5436: 5432: 5422: 5420: 5405: 5401: 5386: 5382: 5372: 5370: 5355: 5351: 5341: 5339: 5324: 5320: 5310: 5308: 5293: 5289: 5279: 5277: 5262: 5258: 5248: 5246: 5231: 5227: 5217: 5215: 5202: 5201: 5197: 5185: 5179: 5175: 5160: 5156: 5146: 5144: 5131: 5130: 5126: 5111: 5107: 5097: 5095: 5080: 5076: 5066: 5064: 5049: 5045: 5032: 5031: 5027: 5017: 5015: 5011: 5007:. August 2019. 5004: 5000: 4999: 4995: 4985: 4983: 4968: 4964: 4954: 4952: 4937: 4933: 4918: 4914: 4899: 4895: 4883: 4877: 4873: 4863: 4861: 4839: 4835: 4820: 4816: 4806: 4804: 4796: 4795: 4791: 4781: 4779: 4768: 4764: 4754: 4752: 4748: 4717: 4711: 4707: 4697: 4695: 4686: 4685: 4681: 4671: 4669: 4665: 4658: 4654: 4653: 4649: 4640: 4639: 4635: 4625: 4623: 4614: 4613: 4609: 4603:Wayback Machine 4594: 4590: 4580: 4578: 4569: 4568: 4564: 4552: 4548:Wayback Machine 4539: 4535: 4522: 4521: 4517: 4506: 4502: 4485: 4481: 4466: 4462: 4447: 4443: 4428: 4424: 4409: 4405: 4390: 4386: 4371: 4367: 4352: 4348: 4338: 4336: 4323: 4322: 4315: 4308: 4292: 4288: 4278: 4276: 4267: 4266: 4262: 4255: 4237: 4233: 4223: 4221: 4217: 4211: 4207: 4200: 4174: 4170: 4160: 4158: 4143: 4139: 4129: 4127: 4112: 4108: 4098: 4096: 4081: 4077: 4067: 4065: 4050: 4046: 4039: 4021: 4017: 4007: 4005: 3990: 3986: 3976: 3974: 3959: 3955: 3948: 3932: 3928: 3918: 3916: 3907: 3906: 3902: 3892: 3890: 3875: 3871: 3861: 3859: 3850: 3849: 3845: 3838: 3816: 3812: 3797: 3793: 3783: 3781: 3777: 3766: 3760: 3751: 3744: 3730: 3723: 3716: 3712: 3699: 3698: 3694: 3684: 3682: 3673: 3672: 3668: 3658: 3656: 3646: 3642: 3632: 3630: 3619: 3615: 3605: 3603: 3592: 3588: 3578: 3576: 3569: 3565: 3550: 3546: 3536: 3534: 3525: 3524: 3517: 3507: 3505: 3493: 3489: 3479: 3477: 3454: 3450: 3440: 3438: 3415: 3411: 3401: 3399: 3376: 3372: 3366: 3356: 3354: 3337: 3333: 3323: 3321: 3304: 3300: 3290: 3288: 3275: 3274: 3267: 3254: 3253: 3246: 3236: 3234: 3226: 3225: 3221: 3211: 3209: 3196: 3195: 3191: 3178: 3177: 3173: 3158: 3154: 3144: 3142: 3130: 3129: 3125: 3110: 3109: 3105: 3100: 3095: 3006: 2949: 2936: 2934:Great Recession 2930: 2869: 2868: 2860: 2858: 2854: 2852: 2848: 2846: 2842: 2840: 2836: 2834: 2827: 2825: 2818: 2799: 2793: 2785:Great Recession 2777: 2771: 2746: 2711: 2679: 2673: 2668: 2644: 2603: 2578: 2573: 2537: 2505: 2499: 2493: 2420:monetary policy 2412:Milton Friedman 2397: 2391: 2231:Great Recession 2114:sector rotation 2085:margin accounts 1941:personal income 1743:Manufacturing: 1707:Joseph Stiglitz 1682: 1611:Economic bubble 1573:investment risk 1520:Fiscal policies 1503: 1468: 1419: 1386:negative equity 1359: 1353: 1309: 1284: 1278: 1227: 1114: 1052:economic bubble 1020: 991: 958: 925: 857: 817: 807: 805: 798: 797: 756: 748: 747: 728:Joseph Stiglitz 688:Milton Friedman 668:Friedrich Hayek 593: 583: 582: 465: 455: 454: 425: 417: 416: 402:Mundell–Fleming 397:Matching theory 335:Keynesian cross 320: 312: 311: 282: 274: 273: 59: 24: 17: 12: 11: 5: 9561: 9551: 9550: 9548:Business cycle 9545: 9540: 9523: 9522: 9520: 9519: 9518: 9517: 9512: 9507: 9505:United Kingdom 9502: 9497: 9492: 9487: 9482: 9477: 9472: 9467: 9462: 9457: 9446: 9445: 9444: 9439: 9437:United Kingdom 9434: 9429: 9424: 9419: 9414: 9409: 9404: 9399: 9394: 9382: 9380: 9379:(2007–present) 9372: 9371: 9369: 9368: 9362: 9357: 9356: 9355: 9350: 9348:United Kingdom 9345: 9340: 9329: 9323: 9321: 9308: 9307: 9305: 9304: 9303: 9302: 9297: 9295:United Kingdom 9292: 9281: 9280: 9279: 9274: 9272:United Kingdom 9263: 9261: 9253: 9252: 9250: 9249: 9244: 9239: 9233: 9227: 9221: 9217: 9215: 9207: 9206: 9204: 9203: 9198: 9197: 9196: 9191: 9189:United Kingdom 9186: 9181: 9176: 9171: 9166: 9155: 9152: 9149: 9144: 9139: 9132: 9130: 9122: 9121: 9119: 9118: 9112: 9106: 9100: 9094: 9091: 9085: 9079: 9076: 9071: 9070: 9069: 9064: 9062:United Kingdom 9052: 9050: 9037: 9036: 9034: 9033: 9027: 9021: 9018: 9012: 9009: 9003: 8999: 8997: 8984: 8983: 8981: 8980: 8974: 8971: 8968: 8962: 8959: 8953: 8950: 8947: 8944: 8938: 8928: 8925: 8924: 8923: 8918: 8913: 8901: 8899: 8891: 8890: 8888: 8887: 8882: 8877: 8870: 8868: 8860: 8859: 8857: 8856: 8855: 8854: 8844: 8843: 8842: 8837: 8827: 8826: 8825: 8820: 8815: 8810: 8805: 8800: 8795: 8790: 8780: 8779: 8778: 8769: 8764: 8754: 8753: 8752: 8747: 8742: 8732: 8731: 8730: 8725: 8720: 8715: 8710: 8701: 8696: 8691: 8677: 8675:Business cycle 8672: 8671: 8670: 8665: 8660: 8655: 8653:Overproduction 8650: 8645: 8640: 8625: 8622: 8621: 8606: 8605: 8598: 8591: 8583: 8577: 8576: 8570: 8528: 8527: 8521: 8520: 8509: 8508: 8506: 8505:External links 8503: 8500: 8499: 8469: 8430: 8408: 8378: 8367:on 3 July 2009 8352: 8329: 8303: 8284: 8266: 8239: 8212: 8186: 8167: 8148: 8117: 8083: 8065: 8034: 8013: 7982: 7950: 7933: 7903: 7873: 7847: 7820: 7791: 7765: 7747: 7719: 7690: 7663: 7624: 7590: 7558: 7527: 7499: 7480: 7450: 7428: 7397: 7365: 7346: 7323: 7321:, 31 July 2003 7300: 7274: 7241: 7210: 7177: 7157: 7118: 7087: 7056:10.1086/657529 7030: 7012: 6986: 6960: 6949:. pp. 3–4 6930: 6923: 6901: 6894: 6874: 6867: 6845: 6838: 6818: 6800: 6782: 6765: 6747: 6716: 6694: 6675: 6636: 6606: 6587: 6569: 6519: 6502:newyorkfed.org 6489: 6469: 6450: 6425: 6406: 6388: 6369: 6339: 6309: 6292:chicagofed.org 6279: 6253: 6234: 6209: 6190: 6159: 6128: 6097: 6067: 6049: 6022: 6003: 5984: 5965: 5946: 5915: 5897: 5866: 5847: 5820: 5801: 5782: 5763: 5732: 5705: 5678: 5659: 5629: 5599: 5568: 5549: 5522: 5492: 5461: 5430: 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PolitiFact. 3613: 3586: 3563: 3544: 3515: 3487: 3448: 3409: 3370: 3364: 3331: 3298: 3265: 3262:. 8 July 2008. 3244: 3219: 3189: 3171: 3152: 3123: 3102: 3101: 3099: 3096: 3094: 3093: 3088: 3083: 3078: 3073: 3071:Overproduction 3068: 3063: 3058: 3053: 3048: 3043: 3038: 3033: 3028: 3023: 3018: 3013: 3007: 3005: 3002: 2948: 2945: 2932:Main article: 2929: 2926: 2906: 2905: 2899: 2893: 2887: 2859: 2853: 2847: 2841: 2835: 2826: 2817: 2795:Main article: 2792: 2789: 2773:Main article: 2770: 2769:United Kingdom 2767: 2745: 2744:European Union 2742: 2710: 2707: 2675:Main article: 2672: 2669: 2667: 2664: 2643: 2642:Social effects 2640: 2602: 2599: 2577: 2574: 2572: 2569: 2545:1981 recession 2536: 2533: 2504: 2501: 2491: 2462:macroeconomic 2390: 2387: 2384: 2383: 2380: 2377: 2374: 2371: 2367: 2366: 2363: 2360: 2357: 2354: 2350: 2349: 2346: 2343: 2340: 2337: 2333: 2332: 2329: 2326: 2323: 2320: 2316: 2315: 2312: 2309: 2306: 2303: 2299: 2298: 2295: 2292: 2289: 2286: 2274: 2273: 2268:moving average 2245: 2234: 2206: 2202: 2199: 2196: 2193: 2190: 2183: 2177: 2167: 2166: 2163:Alan Greenspan 2159: 2151: 2150: 2147: 2142: 2131: 2130: 2124: 2121: 2118: 2110: 2099: 2091:Asset Prices: 2089: 2088: 2077: 2076: 2069: 2068: 2065:federal budget 2061: 2058: 2050: 2046: 2038: 2034: 2027: 2026: 2018: 2006: 2005: 2002: 1995: 1988: 1981: 1967: 1956: 1955: 1948: 1937: 1926: 1925: 1921: 1913: 1909: 1902: 1895: 1892: 1880: 1877: 1870: 1869: 1862: 1861: 1858: 1854: 1846: 1842: 1826: 1819: 1804: 1803: 1802:Council (ACC). 1799: 1796: 1789: 1788: 1780: 1773: 1772: 1761: 1758: 1755: 1752: 1749: 1726: 1725: 1722: 1717: 1714: 1693:to combat the 1691:fed funds rate 1681: 1678: 1673: 1672: 1668: 1657: 1641: 1640: 1622: 1608: 1602: 1596: 1592: 1585:political risk 1565:liquidity risk 1549:Financial risk 1546: 1535: 1534: 1528: 1517: 1502: 1499: 1467: 1464: 1441:described the 1423:liquidity trap 1418: 1417:Liquidity trap 1415: 1390:interest rates 1378:private sector 1355:Main article: 1352: 1349: 1341:money illusion 1318:animal spirits 1308: 1305: 1280:Main article: 1277: 1274: 1235:Richard C. Koo 1226: 1223: 1173:, employment, 1152: 1151: 1148: 1145: 1138: 1127:Julius Shiskin 1113: 1110: 1087:United Kingdom 1083:European Union 1036:business cycle 1022: 1021: 1019: 1018: 1011: 1004: 996: 993: 992: 990: 989: 984: 979: 974: 968: 965: 964: 960: 959: 957: 956: 951: 946: 941: 935: 932: 931: 927: 926: 924: 923: 918: 913: 908: 903: 898: 893: 887: 884: 883: 879: 878: 872: 871: 859: 858: 856: 855: 848: 841: 833: 830: 829: 828: 827: 815: 800: 799: 796: 795: 790: 785: 783:Microeconomics 780: 779: 778: 768: 763: 757: 754: 753: 750: 749: 746: 745: 740: 735: 730: 725: 720: 715: 710: 705: 700: 698:Lawrence Klein 695: 693:Paul Samuelson 690: 685: 680: 675: 670: 665: 660: 655: 650: 648:Michał Kalecki 645: 640: 635: 630: 625: 620: 615: 610: 605: 600: 594: 589: 588: 585: 584: 581: 580: 575: 570: 568:Disequilibrium 565: 564: 563: 556:Post-Keynesian 553: 548: 547: 546: 536: 525: 524: 519: 514: 509: 504: 503: 502: 492: 487: 486: 485: 480: 466: 461: 460: 457: 456: 453: 452: 447: 442: 437: 432: 426: 424:Related fields 423: 422: 419: 418: 415: 414: 409: 404: 399: 394: 389: 388: 387: 377: 372: 367: 362: 357: 352: 350:Phillips curve 347: 342: 337: 332: 327: 321: 318: 317: 314: 313: 310: 309: 304: 299: 294: 289: 283: 280: 279: 276: 275: 272: 271: 266: 261: 256: 251: 246: 241: 236: 231: 230: 229: 219: 214: 213: 212: 202: 200:Money creation 197: 196: 195: 185: 180: 179: 178: 173: 168: 158: 156:Liquidity trap 153: 148: 143: 142: 141: 136: 126: 121: 116: 115: 114: 109: 101: 96: 91: 86: 81: 76: 74:Business cycle 71: 66: 60: 58:Basic concepts 57: 56: 53: 52: 44: 43: 41:Macroeconomics 37: 36: 15: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 9560: 9549: 9546: 9544: 9541: 9539: 9536: 9535: 9533: 9516: 9513: 9511: 9510:United States 9508: 9506: 9503: 9501: 9498: 9496: 9493: 9491: 9488: 9486: 9483: 9481: 9478: 9476: 9473: 9471: 9468: 9466: 9463: 9461: 9458: 9456: 9452: 9451: 9450: 9447: 9443: 9442:United States 9440: 9438: 9435: 9433: 9430: 9428: 9425: 9423: 9420: 9418: 9415: 9413: 9410: 9408: 9405: 9403: 9400: 9398: 9395: 9393: 9389: 9388: 9387: 9384: 9383: 9381: 9377: 9373: 9366: 9363: 9361: 9358: 9354: 9353:United States 9351: 9349: 9346: 9344: 9341: 9339: 9335: 9334: 9333: 9330: 9328: 9325: 9324: 9322: 9318: 9313: 9309: 9301: 9300:United States 9298: 9296: 9293: 9291: 9287: 9286: 9285: 9282: 9278: 9277:United States 9275: 9273: 9270: 9269: 9268: 9265: 9264: 9262: 9258: 9254: 9248: 9245: 9243: 9240: 9237: 9234: 9231: 9228: 9225: 9222: 9219: 9218: 9216: 9212: 9208: 9202: 9199: 9195: 9194:United States 9192: 9190: 9187: 9185: 9182: 9180: 9177: 9175: 9172: 9170: 9167: 9165: 9161: 9160: 9159: 9156: 9153: 9150: 9148: 9145: 9143: 9140: 9137: 9134: 9133: 9131: 9127: 9123: 9116: 9113: 9110: 9107: 9104: 9103:Panic of 1907 9101: 9098: 9097:Panic of 1901 9095: 9092: 9089: 9088:Panic of 1893 9086: 9083: 9082:Baring crisis 9080: 9077: 9075: 9072: 9068: 9067:United States 9065: 9063: 9059: 9058: 9057: 9054: 9053: 9051: 9047: 9042: 9038: 9031: 9028: 9025: 9024:Panic of 1866 9022: 9019: 9016: 9015:Panic of 1857 9013: 9010: 9007: 9006:Panic of 1847 9004: 9001: 9000: 8998: 8994: 8989: 8985: 8978: 8977:Panic of 1837 8975: 8972: 8969: 8966: 8965:Panic of 1825 8963: 8960: 8957: 8954: 8951: 8948: 8945: 8942: 8939: 8936: 8935:Panic of 1792 8932: 8929: 8926: 8922: 8919: 8917: 8914: 8912: 8908: 8907: 8906: 8903: 8902: 8900: 8896: 8892: 8886: 8883: 8881: 8880:Slump of 1706 8878: 8875: 8872: 8871: 8869: 8865: 8861: 8853: 8850: 8849: 8848: 8845: 8841: 8838: 8836: 8833: 8832: 8831: 8828: 8824: 8821: 8819: 8816: 8814: 8811: 8809: 8806: 8804: 8801: 8799: 8796: 8794: 8791: 8789: 8788:Balance sheet 8786: 8785: 8784: 8781: 8777: 8773: 8770: 8768: 8765: 8763: 8760: 8759: 8758: 8757:Interest rate 8755: 8751: 8748: 8746: 8743: 8741: 8738: 8737: 8736: 8733: 8729: 8726: 8724: 8721: 8719: 8716: 8714: 8711: 8709: 8705: 8702: 8700: 8697: 8695: 8692: 8690: 8687: 8686: 8685: 8681: 8678: 8676: 8673: 8669: 8666: 8664: 8661: 8659: 8656: 8654: 8651: 8649: 8646: 8644: 8641: 8639: 8636: 8635: 8634: 8630: 8627: 8626: 8623: 8619: 8615: 8611: 8604: 8599: 8597: 8592: 8590: 8585: 8584: 8581: 8574: 8571: 8569: 8565: 8561: 8557: 8552: 8548: 8547: 8542: 8538: 8533: 8532: 8526: 8523: 8522: 8517: 8512: 8487: 8483: 8479: 8473: 8465: 8461: 8457: 8453: 8449: 8445: 8441: 8434: 8426: 8422: 8418: 8417:Gross, Daniel 8412: 8396: 8392: 8388: 8382: 8366: 8362: 8356: 8340: 8333: 8317: 8313: 8307: 8300: 8296: 8293: 8288: 8280: 8276: 8270: 8254: 8250: 8243: 8227: 8223: 8216: 8200: 8196: 8190: 8183: 8179: 8176: 8171: 8164: 8160: 8157: 8152: 8136: 8132: 8128: 8121: 8105: 8101: 8097: 8093: 8087: 8081: 8077: 8074: 8069: 8053: 8049: 8045: 8038: 8032: 8029: 8025: 8022: 8017: 8001: 7997: 7993: 7986: 7967: 7960: 7954: 7946: 7945: 7937: 7921: 7917: 7913: 7907: 7891: 7887: 7883: 7877: 7861: 7857: 7851: 7835: 7831: 7824: 7808: 7804: 7798: 7796: 7779: 7775: 7769: 7761: 7757: 7751: 7736: 7732: 7731: 7723: 7708: 7704: 7700: 7694: 7679: 7675: 7674: 7667: 7648: 7644: 7637: 7631: 7629: 7612: 7608: 7604: 7597: 7595: 7575: 7568: 7562: 7546: 7542: 7536: 7534: 7532: 7524: 7520: 7517: 7512: 7510: 7508: 7506: 7504: 7497: 7493: 7490: 7484: 7468: 7464: 7463:The Economist 7460: 7454: 7447: 7443: 7440: 7435: 7433: 7416: 7412: 7408: 7401: 7385: 7381: 7374: 7372: 7370: 7362: 7358: 7355: 7350: 7342: 7338: 7334: 7327: 7320: 7316: 7312: 7309: 7304: 7288: 7284: 7278: 7262: 7258: 7257: 7252: 7245: 7229: 7225: 7221: 7214: 7207: 7205: 7191: 7187: 7181: 7175: 7171: 7167: 7161: 7153: 7149: 7145: 7141: 7137: 7133: 7129: 7122: 7106: 7102: 7098: 7091: 7083: 7079: 7075: 7071: 7066: 7061: 7057: 7053: 7049: 7045: 7041: 7034: 7023: 7016: 7008: 7004: 6997: 6990: 6982: 6978: 6971: 6964: 6948: 6941: 6934: 6926: 6920: 6916: 6912: 6905: 6897: 6891: 6887: 6886: 6878: 6870: 6864: 6860: 6856: 6849: 6841: 6835: 6831: 6830: 6822: 6814: 6810: 6804: 6796: 6792: 6786: 6778: 6775: 6769: 6761: 6757: 6751: 6735: 6731: 6727: 6720: 6713: 6708: 6704: 6698: 6690: 6686: 6679: 6660: 6656: 6655: 6647: 6640: 6624: 6620: 6616: 6610: 6602: 6598: 6591: 6584: 6580: 6577: 6573: 6565: 6561: 6557: 6553: 6549: 6545: 6541: 6537: 6533: 6526: 6524: 6507: 6503: 6499: 6493: 6486: 6482: 6479: 6473: 6466: 6462: 6459: 6454: 6445: 6440: 6436: 6429: 6421: 6417: 6410: 6402: 6398: 6392: 6384: 6380: 6373: 6357: 6353: 6349: 6343: 6327: 6323: 6319: 6313: 6297: 6293: 6289: 6283: 6267: 6263: 6257: 6249: 6245: 6238: 6222: 6219: 6213: 6206: 6202: 6199: 6194: 6178: 6174: 6170: 6163: 6147: 6143: 6139: 6132: 6116: 6112: 6108: 6101: 6085: 6081: 6077: 6071: 6063: 6059: 6053: 6045: 6041: 6037: 6033: 6026: 6018: 6014: 6007: 5999: 5995: 5988: 5980: 5976: 5969: 5961: 5957: 5950: 5934: 5930: 5926: 5919: 5912: 5908: 5905: 5901: 5885: 5881: 5877: 5870: 5862: 5858: 5851: 5843: 5839: 5835: 5831: 5824: 5816: 5812: 5805: 5797: 5793: 5786: 5778: 5774: 5767: 5751: 5747: 5746:Seeking Alpha 5743: 5736: 5728: 5724: 5720: 5716: 5709: 5693: 5689: 5682: 5674: 5670: 5663: 5647: 5643: 5639: 5633: 5617: 5613: 5609: 5603: 5587: 5583: 5579: 5572: 5564: 5560: 5553: 5545: 5541: 5537: 5533: 5526: 5510: 5506: 5502: 5496: 5480: 5476: 5472: 5465: 5449: 5445: 5441: 5434: 5418: 5414: 5410: 5403: 5395: 5391: 5384: 5368: 5364: 5360: 5353: 5337: 5333: 5329: 5322: 5306: 5302: 5298: 5291: 5275: 5271: 5267: 5260: 5244: 5240: 5236: 5229: 5213: 5209: 5205: 5199: 5191: 5184: 5177: 5169: 5165: 5158: 5142: 5138: 5134: 5128: 5120: 5116: 5109: 5093: 5089: 5085: 5078: 5062: 5058: 5054: 5047: 5039: 5035: 5029: 5010: 5003: 4997: 4981: 4977: 4973: 4966: 4950: 4946: 4942: 4935: 4927: 4923: 4916: 4908: 4904: 4897: 4889: 4882: 4875: 4860: 4856: 4852: 4848: 4844: 4837: 4829: 4825: 4818: 4802: 4799: 4793: 4777: 4773: 4766: 4747: 4743: 4739: 4735: 4731: 4727: 4723: 4716: 4709: 4693: 4689: 4683: 4664: 4657: 4651: 4643: 4637: 4621: 4617: 4611: 4604: 4600: 4597: 4592: 4576: 4572: 4566: 4559: 4558:public domain 4549: 4545: 4542: 4537: 4529: 4525: 4519: 4511: 4504: 4496: 4495: 4490: 4483: 4475: 4471: 4464: 4456: 4452: 4445: 4437: 4433: 4426: 4418: 4414: 4407: 4399: 4395: 4388: 4380: 4376: 4369: 4361: 4357: 4350: 4334: 4330: 4326: 4320: 4318: 4309: 4303: 4299: 4298: 4290: 4274: 4270: 4264: 4256: 4250: 4245: 4244: 4235: 4216: 4209: 4201: 4195: 4191: 4187: 4183: 4179: 4172: 4156: 4152: 4148: 4141: 4125: 4121: 4117: 4110: 4094: 4090: 4086: 4079: 4063: 4059: 4055: 4048: 4040: 4034: 4030: 4026: 4019: 4003: 3999: 3995: 3988: 3972: 3968: 3964: 3957: 3949: 3943: 3939: 3938: 3930: 3914: 3910: 3904: 3888: 3884: 3880: 3873: 3857: 3853: 3847: 3839: 3837:9781612336084 3833: 3829: 3825: 3821: 3814: 3806: 3802: 3795: 3776: 3772: 3765: 3758: 3756: 3754: 3745: 3739: 3735: 3728: 3726: 3719: 3714: 3706: 3702: 3696: 3680: 3676: 3670: 3655: 3651: 3644: 3628: 3624: 3617: 3601: 3597: 3590: 3574: 3567: 3559: 3555: 3548: 3532: 3528: 3522: 3520: 3504: 3503: 3498: 3491: 3475: 3471: 3467: 3463: 3459: 3452: 3436: 3432: 3428: 3424: 3420: 3413: 3397: 3393: 3389: 3385: 3381: 3374: 3368: 3352: 3348: 3347: 3342: 3335: 3319: 3315: 3314: 3309: 3302: 3286: 3282: 3278: 3272: 3270: 3261: 3257: 3251: 3249: 3233: 3229: 3223: 3207: 3203: 3199: 3198:"FAQ | EABCN" 3193: 3185: 3181: 3175: 3167: 3163: 3156: 3140: 3136: 3135: 3127: 3119: 3118: 3113: 3107: 3103: 3092: 3089: 3087: 3084: 3082: 3079: 3077: 3074: 3072: 3069: 3067: 3064: 3062: 3059: 3057: 3054: 3052: 3049: 3047: 3044: 3042: 3039: 3037: 3034: 3032: 3029: 3027: 3024: 3022: 3019: 3017: 3016:Credit crunch 3014: 3012: 3009: 3008: 3001: 2997: 2993: 2989: 2986: 2981: 2978: 2972: 2969: 2964: 2962: 2958: 2954: 2947:United States 2944: 2942: 2935: 2925: 2921: 2917: 2915: 2910: 2903: 2900: 2897: 2894: 2891: 2888: 2885: 2882: 2881: 2880: 2874: 2866: 2865:CPI inflation 2833: 2824: 2815: 2811: 2803: 2798: 2791:United States 2788: 2786: 2782: 2776: 2766: 2764: 2760: 2756: 2751: 2741: 2737: 2735: 2730: 2727: 2722: 2720: 2716: 2706: 2704: 2698: 2696: 2690: 2688: 2684: 2678: 2663: 2661: 2657: 2656:fixed incomes 2653: 2649: 2639: 2637: 2633: 2630: 2625: 2623: 2619: 2615: 2611: 2610:profitability 2607: 2598: 2594: 2591: 2587: 2583: 2568: 2566: 2562: 2561:Walter Heller 2558: 2557:Ronald Reagan 2554: 2550: 2546: 2541: 2535:U.S. politics 2532: 2530: 2525: 2523: 2518: 2516: 2512: 2511: 2496: 2490: 2485: 2483: 2479: 2476: 2472: 2468: 2465: 2461: 2460:New Keynesian 2456: 2454: 2450: 2444: 2441: 2437: 2433: 2429: 2425: 2421: 2418:expansionary 2417: 2413: 2409: 2405: 2401: 2396: 2381: 2378: 2375: 2372: 2369: 2368: 2364: 2361: 2358: 2355: 2352: 2351: 2347: 2344: 2341: 2338: 2335: 2334: 2330: 2327: 2324: 2321: 2318: 2317: 2313: 2310: 2307: 2304: 2301: 2300: 2296: 2294:Current Value 2293: 2290: 2287: 2284: 2283: 2277: 2271: 2269: 2262: 2258: 2254: 2250: 2246: 2243: 2239: 2235: 2232: 2228: 2224: 2219: 2215: 2211: 2207: 2203: 2200: 2197: 2194: 2191: 2188: 2184: 2181: 2178: 2175: 2172: 2171: 2170: 2164: 2160: 2156: 2155: 2154: 2148: 2146: 2143: 2139: 2136: 2135: 2134: 2128: 2125: 2122: 2119: 2115: 2111: 2107: 2103: 2100: 2097: 2094: 2093: 2092: 2086: 2082: 2081: 2080: 2074: 2073: 2072: 2066: 2062: 2059: 2055: 2051: 2047: 2044: 2039: 2035: 2032: 2031: 2030: 2023: 2019: 2015: 2011: 2010: 2009: 2003: 2000: 1996: 1993: 1989: 1986: 1982: 1979: 1975: 1971: 1968: 1965: 1961: 1960: 1959: 1953: 1949: 1946: 1942: 1938: 1935: 1931: 1930: 1929: 1922: 1919: 1914: 1910: 1907: 1903: 1900: 1896: 1893: 1890: 1886: 1881: 1878: 1875: 1874: 1873: 1867: 1866: 1865: 1859: 1855: 1852: 1847: 1843: 1840: 1836: 1831: 1827: 1824: 1820: 1817: 1813: 1809: 1808: 1807: 1800: 1797: 1794: 1793: 1792: 1786: 1785:ripple effect 1781: 1778: 1777: 1776: 1770: 1766: 1762: 1759: 1756: 1753: 1750: 1746: 1745: 1744: 1741: 1738: 1735: 1731: 1720: 1718: 1715: 1712: 1711: 1710: 1708: 1704: 1700: 1699:Deutsche Bank 1696: 1692: 1687: 1677: 1669: 1666: 1662: 1658: 1654: 1650: 1646: 1645: 1644: 1638: 1634: 1630: 1629:overleveraged 1626: 1625:Minsky Moment 1623: 1620: 1616: 1615:economic boom 1612: 1609: 1606: 1603: 1600: 1597: 1593: 1590: 1586: 1582: 1581:business risk 1578: 1574: 1570: 1566: 1562: 1561:systemic risk 1558: 1554: 1550: 1547: 1545:consumption). 1543: 1540: 1539: 1538: 1532: 1531:Demand shocks 1529: 1526: 1521: 1518: 1515: 1514:Supply shocks 1512: 1511: 1510: 1507: 1498: 1495: 1490: 1486: 1481: 1478: 1474: 1463: 1460: 1456: 1452: 1448: 1444: 1440: 1437:". Economist 1436: 1432: 1428: 1424: 1414: 1410: 1407: 1402: 1400: 1395: 1391: 1387: 1381: 1379: 1374: 1370: 1365: 1364:balance sheet 1358: 1348: 1346: 1345:normalcy bias 1342: 1338: 1333: 1329: 1328: 1323: 1322:psychological 1319: 1314: 1304: 1302: 1298: 1294: 1290: 1283: 1273: 1271: 1267: 1263: 1259: 1255: 1251: 1246: 1244: 1240: 1236: 1231: 1222: 1220: 1215: 1213: 1209: 1204: 1202: 1198: 1194: 1190: 1188: 1184: 1180: 1176: 1172: 1168: 1164: 1160: 1159:United States 1155: 1149: 1146: 1143: 1139: 1136: 1132: 1131: 1130: 1128: 1125: 1121: 1120: 1109: 1107: 1103: 1099: 1094: 1092: 1088: 1084: 1080: 1076: 1075:United States 1071: 1069: 1065: 1061: 1057: 1056:anthropogenic 1053: 1049: 1045: 1041: 1037: 1033: 1029: 1017: 1012: 1010: 1005: 1003: 998: 997: 995: 994: 988: 985: 983: 980: 978: 975: 973: 970: 969: 967: 966: 962: 961: 955: 952: 950: 947: 945: 942: 940: 937: 936: 934: 933: 929: 928: 922: 919: 917: 914: 912: 909: 907: 904: 902: 899: 897: 894: 892: 889: 888: 886: 885: 881: 880: 877: 874: 873: 869: 865: 864: 854: 849: 847: 842: 840: 835: 834: 832: 831: 826: 821: 816: 814: 804: 803: 802: 801: 794: 791: 789: 786: 784: 781: 777: 774: 773: 772: 769: 767: 764: 762: 759: 758: 752: 751: 744: 741: 739: 736: 734: 731: 729: 726: 724: 721: 719: 718:Peter Diamond 716: 714: 711: 709: 706: 704: 703:Edmund Phelps 701: 699: 696: 694: 691: 689: 686: 684: 681: 679: 678:Richard Stone 676: 674: 671: 669: 666: 664: 663:Joan Robinson 661: 659: 658:Simon Kuznets 656: 654: 653:Gunnar Myrdal 651: 649: 646: 644: 641: 639: 636: 634: 631: 629: 628:Irving Fisher 626: 624: 623:Knut Wicksell 621: 619: 616: 614: 611: 609: 606: 604: 601: 599: 596: 595: 592: 587: 586: 579: 576: 574: 571: 569: 566: 562: 559: 558: 557: 554: 552: 549: 545: 542: 541: 540: 537: 535: 532: 531: 530: 529: 523: 520: 518: 515: 513: 510: 508: 505: 501: 498: 497: 496: 495:New classical 493: 491: 488: 484: 481: 479: 476: 475: 474: 471: 470: 469: 464: 459: 458: 451: 448: 446: 443: 441: 438: 436: 433: 431: 428: 427: 421: 420: 413: 410: 408: 405: 403: 400: 398: 395: 393: 390: 386: 383: 382: 381: 378: 376: 373: 371: 368: 366: 363: 361: 358: 356: 353: 351: 348: 346: 343: 341: 338: 336: 333: 331: 328: 326: 323: 322: 316: 315: 308: 305: 303: 300: 298: 295: 293: 290: 288: 285: 284: 278: 277: 270: 267: 265: 262: 260: 257: 255: 252: 250: 249:Shrinkflation 247: 245: 242: 240: 237: 235: 232: 228: 225: 224: 223: 220: 218: 215: 211: 208: 207: 206: 203: 201: 198: 194: 191: 190: 189: 186: 184: 181: 177: 174: 172: 169: 167: 164: 163: 162: 159: 157: 154: 152: 149: 147: 146:Interest rate 144: 140: 137: 135: 132: 131: 130: 127: 125: 122: 120: 117: 113: 110: 108: 105: 104: 103:Expectations 102: 100: 97: 95: 92: 90: 87: 85: 82: 80: 77: 75: 72: 70: 67: 65: 62: 61: 55: 54: 50: 46: 45: 42: 39: 38: 34: 30: 29: 26: 22: 9543:Unemployment 9427:South Africa 9184:South Africa 9030:Black Friday 8847:Unemployment 8782: 8704:Money supply 8699:Disinflation 8643:General glut 8544: 8537:"Recessions" 8515: 8490:. Retrieved 8481: 8472: 8450:(1): 40–53. 8447: 8443: 8433: 8424: 8411: 8399:. Retrieved 8390: 8381: 8369:. Retrieved 8365:the original 8355: 8343:. Retrieved 8332: 8320:. Retrieved 8306: 8287: 8279:the original 8269: 8257:. Retrieved 8253:the original 8242: 8230:. Retrieved 8215: 8203:. Retrieved 8189: 8170: 8151: 8139:. Retrieved 8130: 8120: 8108:. Retrieved 8099: 8086: 8068: 8056:. Retrieved 8047: 8037: 8031: 8016: 8004:. Retrieved 7995: 7985: 7973:. Retrieved 7953: 7942: 7936: 7924:. Retrieved 7915: 7906: 7894:. Retrieved 7885: 7876: 7864:. Retrieved 7850: 7838:. Retrieved 7823: 7811:. Retrieved 7807:the original 7782:. Retrieved 7768: 7759: 7750: 7739:, retrieved 7729: 7722: 7711:, retrieved 7707:the original 7702: 7693: 7682:, retrieved 7672: 7666: 7656:17 September 7654:. Retrieved 7642: 7617:17 September 7615:. Retrieved 7606: 7581:. Retrieved 7561: 7549:. Retrieved 7545:the original 7483: 7471:. Retrieved 7462: 7453: 7419:. Retrieved 7410: 7400: 7388:. 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Index

Recession (disambiguation)
a series
Macroeconomics
Federal Reserve
Aggregate demand
Aggregate supply
Business cycle
CAGR
Deflation
Demand shock
Disinflation
Effective demand
Adaptive
Rational
Financial crisis
Growth
Inflation
Demand-pull
Cost-push
Interest rate
Investment
Liquidity trap
Measures of national income and output
GDP
GNI
NNI
Microfoundations
Money
Endogenous
Money creation

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