310:. Lindzen had been willing to bet that global temperatures would drop over the next 20 years. Annan says that Lindzen wanted odds of 50–1 against falling temperatures. Lindzen, however, says that he asked for 2–1 odds against a temperature rise of over 0.4 °C. Annan and others state they have challenged other denialists to bets over global warming that were not accepted, including Annan's attempt in 2005 to accept a bet that had been offered by
31:. It typically comprises a commitment to pay out when a currently-unknown or uncertain statement is resolved, and either proven or disproved. Some wagers have specific date restrictions for collection, but many are open. Wagers occasionally exert a powerful galvanizing effect on society and the scientific community.
305:
concerning whether future temperatures will increase. Two
Russian solar physicists, Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev, accepted the wager of US$ 10,000 (equivalent to $ 15,000 in 2023) that the average global temperature during 2012–2017 would be lower than during 1998–2003. The bet ended
85:
mounted 5 km from one of the markers, Wallace established that the nearer one appeared to be the higher of the two. An independent referee agreed that this showed the Earth's surface to curve away from the telescope, and so
Wallace won his money. However, Hampden never accepted the result and
266:
bet US$ 150 (equivalent to $ 270 in 2023) each on whether anyone born before 2001 will reach the age of 150. They later increased the bet to $ 300 (equivalent to $ 380 in 2023) each. The pot is invested in a fund, and could be worth several hundred million dollars by
124:. In 1990, Hawking acknowledged that he had lost the bet. Hawking's explanation for his position was that if black holes did not actually exist much of his research would be incorrect, but at least he would have the consolation of winning the bet.
236:
of the winner's choice, from which "information can be recovered at will". Hawking conceded the bet in 2004, giving a baseball encyclopaedia to John
Preskill. Thorne has not formally conceded. See:
81:, was agreed on: Wallace measured the curvature of the canal's surface using two markers separated by about 5 km (3 mi) and suspended at equal heights above the water's surface. Using a
404:
224:
that information cannot be destroyed. Hawking and Thorne bet that information must be lost in a black hole; Preskill bet that it must not. The formal wager was: "When an initial pure
70:
415:
factoring challenge no later than 2033. In 2023, John Preuß Mattsson bet $ 2,050 that the challenge will withstand quantum computing until at least 2050.
615:
How Much Is That in Real Money? A Historical Price Index for Use as a
Deflator of Money Values in the Economy of the United States: Addenda et Corrigenda
73:
that he could prove the flat Earth hypothesis incorrect. The sum staked was £500 (equivalent to £62,000 in 2023). A test involving a stretch of the
443:
363:
198:) would rise over the next 10 years. He lost, and paid the amount the total price had declined: $ 576.07 (equivalent to $ 1,300 in 2023). See:
1290:
424:
420:
1170:
1265:
650:
1315:
366:
would not be detected by July 8, 2015. On August 16, 2016, after agreeing to a one-year delay to allow for more data collection from the
58:
There are many examples of scientific wagers from the past two centuries, many related to large-scale questions in science at the time.
1114:
Tim
Harford ... resolves a four year-old bet on climate change between climate scientist James Annan and astrophysicist David Whitehouse
250:
was delayed the bet was extended to 2016. As of summer 2016 there had been no signs of superparticles, and the losers delivered "good
314:
in 1998 that temperatures would be cooler after ten years. Annan made a bet in 2011 with astrophysicist David
Whitehouse that the
635:
How Much Is That in Real Money? A Historical Price Index for Use as a
Deflator of Money Values in the Economy of the United States
232:
to form a black hole, the final state at the end of black hole evaporation will always be a pure quantum state". The stake was an
680:
1316:"A YouTuber bet a physicist $ 10,000 that a wind-powered vehicle could travel twice as fast as the wind itself — and won"
1076:
306:
in 2017 with a win to Annan. Mashnich and
Bashkirtsev did not honour the bet. Previously, Annan had directly challenged
851:
318:
temperature would set a new annual record by the end of the year. Annan was declared to have lost on
January 13, 2012.
1201:
336:
934:
699:
502:
178:
that the price of a portfolio of US$ 200 (equivalent to $ 700 in 2023) of each of five mineral commodities (
1346:
1003:
642:
622:
455:
237:
43:
1215:
1239:
467:
150:
87:
1054:
464:
to capture the motion of a galloping horse were not part of a wager, contrary to popular opinion.
199:
154:
1127:
633:
613:
229:
139:
would be solved with a proof that P≠NP by the end of the 20th century. Sipser sent
Adleman an
367:
302:
247:
62:
966:
867:
563:
175:
147:
1189:
8:
1150:
416:
400:
355:
140:
136:
970:
871:
567:
833:
730:
461:
254:
at a price not less than $ 100" each to the winners (equivalent to $ 130 in 2023).
105:
1291:"Discussion of the propeller-assisted straight-downwind land sailing faster than wind"
575:
399:
lost a wager about supersymmetry, but he continues to believe in the theory. In 2017,
343:
5,000 bet (equivalent to £8,000 in 2023) of global warming versus global cooling.
984:
893:
885:
825:
817:
797:
779:
771:
734:
676:
579:
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435:
295:
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74:
28:
714:
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722:
629:
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571:
408:
311:
47:
813:
1351:
392:
374:
307:
205:
168:
132:
97:
39:
35:
915:
512:
470: – Seven mathematical problems with a US$ 1 million prize for each solution
1004:"This scientist keeps winning money from people who bet against climate change"
920:
517:
378:
340:
328:
128:
86:
made increasingly unpleasant threats to Wallace. This test is now known as the
726:
1340:
1240:"$ 2050 that no quantum computer will break RSA2048 before 2050. Any takers?"
1028:
889:
821:
775:
428:
359:
263:
259:
243:
233:
225:
213:
158:
1098:
988:
897:
829:
783:
583:
439:
323:
276:
800:(2003). "Bioinformatics: Gene Counters Struggle to Get the Right Answer".
1050:
396:
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332:
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288:
280:
112:
94:
351:
315:
209:
121:
117:
101:
66:
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82:
27:
whose outcome is settled by experiment or observation, following the
979:
952:
880:
855:
766:
749:
446:
faster than the wind as documented on Muller's channel, Veritasium.
412:
388:
195:
183:
24:
403:
made a bet for US$ 2,048 (equivalent to $ 2,500 in 2023) with
143:
coin in 2000 because the problem remained (and remains) unsolved.
216:
on the ultimate resolution of the apparent contradiction between
78:
715:"Scientists up stakes in bet on whether humans will live to 150"
242:
In 2000 roughly 40 physicists made a bet about the existence of
648:
251:
187:
179:
1171:"Surfer physicist wins superparticle bet with Nobel laureate"
1007:
1264:
Muller, Derek Alexander; Kusenko, Alexander (9 June 2021).
347:
272:
271:
From 2000 to 2003, scientists placed bets on the number of
34:
Notable scientists who have made scientific wagers include
1102:
220:
resulting in a loss of information, and a requirement of
191:
1307:
673:
From Quanta to Quarks: More Anecdotal History of Physics
370:, Frank Wilczek conceded the superparticle bet to Lisi.
1077:"Yet more betting on climate with World Climate Report"
554:
Pavlus, John (2012-01-01). "Machines of the Infinite".
472:
Pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets
153:
won £1250 (equivalent to £7,500 in 2023) from four
1190:
Interview with the BBC on discovery of the Higgs Boson
1128:"Climate change sceptics bet $ 10,000 on cooler world"
953:"Climate sceptics place bets on world cooling down"
913:
909:
907:
675:. Hackensack, NJ: World Scientific. p. 139.
497:
495:
493:
479:is not a wager in the sense used in this article.
1338:
510:
377:lost $ 100 (equivalent to $ 130 in 2023) to
50:dating back to 1980; many are still unresolved.
914:Johnston, Louis; Williamson, Samuel H. (2023).
904:
46:has an open book containing about 35 wagers in
1099:"More or Less, High Speed 2 and Executive Pay"
1091:
603:
601:
599:
597:
595:
593:
511:Thomas, Ryland; Williamson, Samuel H. (2024).
490:
1263:
1029:"Reason Magazine – Betting on Climate Change"
1026:
381:of the University of Michigan because of the
1001:
53:
1244:NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography Mailing List
1208:
856:"Geneticists play the numbers game in vain"
590:
456:Long Now Foundation § Long Bet Project
16:Bet on the outcome of a scientific question
1202:"Betting on the Future of Quantum Gravity"
1148:
790:
978:
879:
765:
246:, to be settled in 2011, but because the
1313:
741:
694:
692:
628:
608:
1288:
850:
844:
796:
712:
700:"Supersymmetry Bet Settled With Cognac"
651:"Consumer Price Index (estimate) 1800–"
1339:
553:
161:in a ten-year span from 1968 to 1978.
1049:
950:
747:
689:
670:
649:Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
157:experts by never losing a match to a
1163:
1125:
1289:Kusenko, Alexander (22 June 2021).
1142:
13:
1266:"Downwind sailing wager agreement"
14:
1363:
1216:"Quantum Computing: a new record"
702:. Quantamagazine. 22 August 2016.
576:10.1038/scientificamerican0912-66
110:for Thorne against four years of
1314:Woodward, Aylin (Jul 28, 2021).
1079:. James' Empty Blog. 24 May 2005
1002:Mark Kaufman (19 October 2018).
713:Fleming, Nic (18 October 2016).
509:"consistent series" supplied in
337:Competitive Enterprise Institute
1282:
1257:
1232:
1194:
1183:
1119:
1069:
1043:
1020:
995:
944:
935:Gross Domestic Product deflator
503:Gross Domestic Product deflator
391:has won many bets connected to
1126:Adam, David (19 August 2005).
706:
664:
547:
532:
131:wagered an ounce of gold with
1:
1027:Ronald Bailey (8 June 2005).
916:"What Was the U.S. GDP Then?"
814:10.1126/science.301.5636.1040
513:"What Was the U.K. GDP Then?"
483:
405:Francisco Rodríguez-Henríquez
643:American Antiquarian Society
623:American Antiquarian Society
460:The efforts of photographer
7:
449:
238:Thorne-Hawking-Preskill bet
120:would turn out to not be a
44:Stanford Linear Accelerator
10:
1368:
1149:A. G. Lisi (2009-08-08).
727:10.1038/nature.2016.20818
468:Millennium Prize problems
444:sailing directly downwind
438:lost a $ 10,000 wager to
303:global warming denialists
54:Notable scientific wagers
539:Stephen Hawking (1997).
442:over the possibility of
411:will publicly break the
88:Bedford Level experiment
671:Capri, Anton Z (2007).
543:(VHS). New River Media.
358:made a public bet with
155:artificial intelligence
100:bet fellow cosmologist
346:On July 8, 2009, at a
230:gravitational collapse
368:Large Hadron Collider
248:Large Hadron Collider
63:Alfred Russel Wallace
1347:Sociology of science
176:Julian Lincoln Simon
148:International Master
1057:. James' Empty Blog
971:2005Natur.436..897G
951:Giles, Jim (2005).
937:figures follow the
872:2003Natur.423..576P
808:(5636): 1040–1041.
748:Giles, Jim (2002).
568:2012SciAm.307c..66P
556:Scientific American
505:figures follow the
417:Daniel J. Bernstein
401:Daniel J. Bernstein
356:Antony Garrett Lisi
200:Simon–Ehrlich wager
141:American Gold Eagle
137:P versus NP problem
67:flat-Earth theorist
1130:. London: Guardian
798:Pennisi, Elizabeth
462:Eadweard Muybridge
431:accepted the bet.
104:a subscription to
1055:"Betting Summary"
760:(6914): 354–355.
682:978-981-270-916-5
436:Alexander Kusenko
409:quantum computers
296:climate scientist
294:In 2005, British
222:quantum mechanics
218:Hawking radiation
75:Old Bedford River
29:scientific method
1359:
1331:
1330:
1328:
1326:
1320:Business Insider
1311:
1305:
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1205:
1204:. 14 March 2014.
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1038:
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626:
620:
605:
588:
587:
551:
545:
544:
536:
530:
529:
527:
525:
499:
473:
312:Patrick Michaels
212:made a bet with
48:particle physics
21:scientific wager
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1080:
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1058:
1053:(9 June 2005).
1048:
1044:
1034:
1032:
1025:
1021:
1012:
1010:
1000:
996:
980:10.1038/436897a
949:
945:
926:
924:
912:
905:
881:10.1038/423576a
849:
845:
795:
791:
767:10.1038/420354a
746:
742:
711:
707:
698:
697:
690:
683:
669:
665:
655:
653:
638:
630:McCusker, J. J.
618:
610:McCusker, J. J.
606:
591:
552:
548:
538:
537:
533:
523:
521:
501:United Kingdom
500:
491:
486:
471:
452:
393:quantum gravity
375:Stephen Hawking
308:Richard Lindzen
301:laid bets with
206:Stephen Hawking
169:Paul R. Ehrlich
146:In 1978, chess
133:Leonard Adleman
98:Stephen Hawking
56:
40:Richard Feynman
36:Stephen Hawking
17:
12:
11:
5:
1365:
1355:
1354:
1349:
1333:
1332:
1306:
1281:
1256:
1231:
1207:
1193:
1182:
1162:
1151:"Science Pond"
1141:
1118:
1090:
1068:
1042:
1019:
994:
943:
939:MeasuringWorth
933:United States
921:MeasuringWorth
903:
852:Pearson, Helen
843:
789:
740:
705:
688:
681:
663:
647:1800–present:
589:
546:
531:
518:MeasuringWorth
507:MeasuringWorth
488:
487:
485:
482:
481:
480:
477:Pascal's wager
474:
465:
458:
451:
448:
364:superparticles
350:conference in
329:George Monbiot
269:
268:
129:Michael Sipser
55:
52:
15:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
1364:
1353:
1350:
1348:
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1317:
1310:
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1046:
1030:
1023:
1009:
1005:
998:
990:
986:
981:
976:
972:
968:
965:(7053): 897.
964:
960:
959:
954:
947:
940:
936:
923:
922:
917:
910:
908:
899:
895:
891:
887:
882:
877:
873:
869:
866:(6940): 576.
865:
861:
857:
853:
847:
839:
835:
831:
827:
823:
819:
815:
811:
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469:
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447:
445:
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437:
432:
430:
429:Michele Mosca
426:
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418:
414:
410:
406:
402:
398:
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390:
386:
384:
380:
376:
371:
369:
365:
361:
360:Frank Wilczek
357:
353:
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344:
342:
338:
334:
330:
326:
325:
319:
317:
313:
309:
304:
300:
297:
292:
290:
287:organised by
286:
282:
278:
274:
265:
264:Jay Olshansky
261:
260:Steven Austad
257:
256:
255:
253:
249:
245:
244:supersymmetry
240:
239:
235:
234:encyclopaedia
231:
227:
226:quantum state
223:
219:
215:
214:John Preskill
211:
207:
202:
201:
197:
193:
189:
185:
181:
177:
174:
170:
167:
162:
160:
159:chess program
156:
152:
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144:
142:
138:
134:
130:
125:
123:
119:
116:for him that
115:
114:
109:
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103:
99:
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84:
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76:
72:
68:
64:
59:
51:
49:
45:
41:
37:
32:
30:
26:
22:
1325:14 September
1323:. Retrieved
1319:
1309:
1298:. Retrieved
1294:
1284:
1273:. Retrieved
1269:
1259:
1247:. Retrieved
1243:
1234:
1222:. Retrieved
1210:
1196:
1185:
1174:. Retrieved
1165:
1154:. Retrieved
1144:
1132:. Retrieved
1121:
1113:
1107:. Retrieved
1105:. 2011-01-13
1093:
1081:. Retrieved
1071:
1059:. Retrieved
1051:Annan, James
1045:
1033:. Retrieved
1031:. Reason.com
1022:
1011:. Retrieved
997:
962:
956:
946:
938:
927:November 30,
925:. Retrieved
919:
863:
859:
846:
805:
801:
792:
757:
753:
750:"Wanna bet?"
743:
718:
708:
672:
666:
656:February 29,
654:. Retrieved
634:
614:
562:(3): 66–71.
559:
555:
549:
540:
534:
522:. Retrieved
516:
506:
440:Derek Muller
433:
387:
372:
345:
324:The Guardian
322:
320:
293:
277:human genome
270:
241:
203:
163:
145:
126:
111:
106:
92:
71:John Hampden
60:
57:
33:
20:
18:
1295:Google Docs
1270:Google Docs
1083:30 December
627:1700–1799:
607:1634–1699:
541:Black Holes
425:Daniel Apon
421:John Sahhar
397:David Gross
385:discovery.
383:Higgs boson
379:Gordon Kane
333:Myron Ebell
331:challenged
299:James Annan
289:Ewan Birney
281:sweepstakes
113:Private Eye
95:cosmologist
1341:Categories
1300:2021-07-01
1275:2021-07-01
1176:2016-08-22
1156:2009-12-13
1109:2012-01-13
1013:2019-07-09
484:References
395:. In 2016
352:the Azores
327:columnist
321:In 2005,
316:Met Office
228:undergoes
210:Kip Thorne
151:David Levy
122:black hole
118:Cygnus X-1
102:Kip Thorne
1035:29 August
890:0028-0836
822:0036-8075
776:0028-0836
735:132452686
373:In 2012,
285:GeneSweep
283:known as
258:In 2000,
204:In 1997,
173:economist
166:biologist
164:In 1980,
135:that the
127:In 1975,
107:Penthouse
93:In 1975,
83:telescope
61:In 1870,
1249:20 April
1224:20 April
1134:13 April
1061:13 April
989:16107801
941:series.
898:12789304
854:(2003).
830:12933991
784:12459753
632:(1992).
612:(1997).
584:22928263
524:July 15,
450:See also
434:In 2021
413:RSA-2048
389:Zvi Bern
196:tungsten
184:chromium
967:Bibcode
868:Bibcode
838:5227212
802:Science
564:Bibcode
335:of the
275:in the
79:Norfolk
1352:Wagers
987:
958:Nature
896:
888:
860:Nature
836:
828:
820:
782:
774:
754:Nature
733:
719:Nature
679:
582:
427:, and
252:cognac
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