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The difference relies partly on the fact that the sequence covers a range of time that is narrow relative to how much has passed since. This is due to the graphing methodology, which (by rather circular logic) implies the present as an additional event in each sequence: for each sequence, the final point has equal X and Y values, meaning "time to next event" equals "time before present." --
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I'm sure there must be some source out there talking about how space travel completely bucked the trend of accelerating change. 100 years ago, we could barely fly on earth, 50 years ago we had satellites in space, 40 years ago we were on the moon and we haven't done anything more impressive than that
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Nickptar, the diagrams are permitted. Kurtzweil's graphics are almost the only graphics the page had, why was it removed so suddenly without a vote? The sources cited in the images are well established and referenced. If there is criticism of them, thats great: lets include it. An
Accelerating Change
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Thanks, Aetheling, you're correct in pointing out one possible sequence that would look different when plotted in this fashion. However, even a young-earth timeline would have fit reasonably well among
Kurtzweil's others for the first few centuries AD (had Kurtzweil and logarithms been around then).
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I understand your point, but I think you make it too strongly. Consider the points that a fundamentalist young-earth
Christian would place on such a graph. The last point would be the crucifixion of Jesus, and all the points would fall between 6000 and 2000 years before present. The pattern would not
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I propose that this article's topic should be changed from the Law of
Accelerating Returns to the more general school of thought concerning accelerating change, (super-)exponential growth in technology, etc. There is as of yet no official Knowledge article on the topic, but much of the content in the
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Unless there's any objection, I'm going to remove the diagrams currently in the article. All are OR violations (who picked out the selected inventions, etc., and who says there're notable?), with the possible exception of the patents given one, which still needs a source and more information, since
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I have removed the most egregiously stupid of the illustrations from the article (that is, any with "time to next event" as an axis). Aside from potential POV/balance and copyright concerns, I have no problem with the ones that remain. If necessary, I will happily argue that the graphs I removed
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It has! The novel was written in 1953! THE LIGHTS IN THE SKY ARE STARS by (the unjustly forgotten great) science fiction author
Fredric Brown. The time scales for almost the same development of manned space flight is only 4 years off. But Brown does have manned space flight or , at least, manned
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I support this removal as it appears to be personal opinion, and is unsourced. I also do not see how it is encyclopedic. It seems clear to me that the accelerating pace of change, from the 1800s, has been a key facet of at least US society. Unless there is an argument or a source, I expect to
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the present. The plot mathematically has to be a sharp diagonal on the right side: anything with "time to next event" greater than "time before present" would require the list to contain future events. And our imprecise historical knowledge puts a limit on how fuzzy the left side can be. For
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flight beyond the Earth stopped in almost the same time frame. He is optimistic and has it started up again around the year 2000 , alas we have overshot that by a lot and it seems it may take at least 10 more years if not 20 before it restarts , and then it may be China who does it.
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14:34, 1 October 2007 (UTC) I don't think it necessary follows that you can show a linear increase in AI intelligence meaning an inevitable singularity. Using the same argument you could show the history of the automobile as proof that the speed of light is not immutable. Luke C
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present article really concerns accelerating change in general, not just
Kurzweil's particular take on it. If nobody voices any objections here within the next few days, I intend to change the article's name to "Accelerating change" and reword the introduction appropriately. --
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What I'm getting at is that we should set up sections for technologies (from computing, communications, energy, to transportation and so on) and highlight possible new advancements as they come along. Wiki is (after all) an ever changing encyclopedia.
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In the image showing the computational speed of various media, it is confusing because it has a picture of a punch card, which doesn't calculate, that's done by relays, transistors, tubes, or whatever electronic switching medium the computer uses.
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The very idea that singularity will be reached by 2045 is misled by the accelerating change involving everything, therefore
Kurzweil's Argument is pretty misleading since he doesn't include himself in the change. Ah, the irony... (anonymous user)
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leading to the emergence of more and more sophisticated technologies separated by shorter and shorter time intervals, until a point beyond human comprehension is reached. The latter starts with an imaginative description of the evolution of a
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was invented "in the 4th millennium BC", according to that article. That's about 6000 years ago. If you consider the invention of the wheel to be a key event, then what's the shortest possible time to next event? Keeping the same number of
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It's not meant that way. "Returns" is a noun, not a verb. That is, it's a law about returns where the returns are accelerating, not a law about accelerating where the law is returning. It's intended as a reference to the much more famous
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Hey guys. I'd like to understand this phrase to complement the translation of the article in foreign language, but I'm not sure the meaning of it accurately since I'm not good command of
English. It simply means a sequel to
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entry without Ray's graphs is like talking about Bob Geldof without mentioning the F word. Few would argue the graphs are not useful illustrations. I'm reverting them back. Don't mess around without a vote. - VirianFlux --
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have. Of course this is an extreme case, but it is a valid counterexample. Nevertheless, I agree with the overall thrust of your remarks: the chart is misleading, and the article would be improved by its absence.
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So it's not a matter of selecting a reasonable list of key events — there's simply no realistic way that one could create a sequence (even an unreasonable one!) that looks different from this plot.
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200,000 years ago — possibly be used to suggest that there will probably be even one more shift (under Nelson's criteria, whatever they may have been) within the next 10, 100, or even 1000 years?
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It would nice to mention/link in how the switching energy for a single transistor has decreased over time. Couldn't find the appropriate page on
Knowledge. Does it exist?--
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I assume that y'all have accurately portrayed Ray's picture of evolution. It seems overly simplistic compared to a real biologist like
Stephen J. Gould.
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Also some of the pictures also show the progress of evolution, while that may be critised aswell. Why didn't the dinosaurs get intelligent already?
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the same trend that Kurtzweil aims to illustrate. How can this be? How can Nelson's list of paradigm shifts — which ends with our divergence to
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are an inevitability without citing any evidence confirming such a statement. I feel the article is made more objective by it's removal.
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When you have finished reviewing my changes, you may follow the instructions on the template below to fix any issues with the URLs.
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Maybe in critisism, there should also be this is just straight line drawing in logirithmic scaled graphs rather then linear ones.
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Ulam, S., Tribute to John von Neumann, Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, vol 64, nr 3, part 2, May, 1958, p1-49.
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I deleted a parenthetical statement in the criticism that seemed to imply that non-human inventors e.g.george macri
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Additionally, embedding Kurtzweil's graphics into every section of the article (including the "criticisms" section—
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Add Transhumanism navigation template on the bottom of all transhumanism articles; (use {{Transhumanism}} or see
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before they can be brought into the home. The other, arguably more famous advance in computing power comes from
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This is more confusing as relays, vacuum tubes, and transistors are shown along side punch cards.
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on Knowledge. If you would like to participate, please visit the project page, where you can join
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before doing mass systematic removals. This message is updated dynamically through the template
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before doing mass systematic removals. This message is updated dynamically through the template
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This article is heavily balanced towards the existence of accelerating change yet according to
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synthesizing original insights. It is not against writing about others who conduct research.
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list any events within the last 10^4 years. Yet all three of these plots seem to indicate
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Well then why haven't you edited the article yet? (If you have sources) There's a link to
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http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf
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http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf
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http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf
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http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf
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https://web.archive.org/web/20060615031852/http://transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
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Add Transhumanism info box to all transhumanism related talk pages (use {{Wpa}} or see
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If you found an error with any archives or the URLs themselves, you can fix them with
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If you found an error with any archives or the URLs themselves, you can fix them with
1637::Going to add a CN tag and let it lie for a bit before applying the editorial hatchet.
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Add ] to the bottom of all transhumanism related articles, so it shows up on the
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Show off a userbox with {{userWPA}} or {{userWPA2}} and attract potential members
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there is no evidence of this even existing, a fact that isn't even mentioned.
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passing through exponentially accelerating developmental stages ending in a
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Updated graphs (with data current to 2008) are available for download at
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The exponential acceleration of technological progress culminating in a
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Take a look at a few of the individual series on the chart. Neither
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That every single graph on this page was made by Raymond Kurzweil.-
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Actually..this is unsourced material in the lead. Dropping it now.
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Use a "standard" layout for transhumanism related articles (see:
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in the banner shell. Please resolve this conflict if possible.
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This article has been given a rating which conflicts with the
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So, I'm not really sure how this is meant to be interpreted.
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When you have finished reviewing my changes, please set the
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1532:"Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine"
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The images all state that they were created by Kurzweil. --
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http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1
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for additional information. I made the following changes:
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for additional information. I made the following changes:
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for additional information. I made the following changes:
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Moore's Law 5th Paradigm Image Doesn't Seem to Make Sense
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No discussion? i thought most articles had a discussion.
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Try to expand stubs, however, some "new" articles may be
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Find/cite sources for all positions of an article (see
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have the characteristic diagonal that you insist it
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Kurzweil's picture of Evolution vs. Stephen J. Gould
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Thank you for the information. That's make sense.--
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1425:. Both are set to be actionable in our lifetimes.
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2040:http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
1825:I stumbled across this page through a link from
1481:(1992). The former is set in a world of rapidly
1413:The best parallel computers are already made of
539:For more information and how you can help click
2048:This message was posted before February 2018.
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1417:, but they need a few breakthroughs such as
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2018:I have just modified one external link on
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587:Article development
553:for more details.
376:WikiProject History
312:Technology articles
2104:InternetArchiveBot
2055:InternetArchiveBot
1994:InternetArchiveBot
1945:InternetArchiveBot
1796:InternetArchiveBot
1747:InternetArchiveBot
951:exponential growth
842:, using footnotes.
696:Help out with the
121:sociology articles
34:content assessment
2080:
1970:
1772:
1588:
1571:comment added by
1488:superintelligence
1423:quantum computing
1388:Knowledge editors
1382:Please read over
1356:
1339:comment added by
904:comment added by
864:
863:
860:
859:
856:
855:
852:
851:
848:
847:
742:Maintenance / Etc
715:Featured articles
692:adopt an article.
690:See this month's
605:Assume good faith
600:Original research
596:Verifying sources
482:for more details.
429:
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324:
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281:Technology portal
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1223:Michael C. Price
1217:Switching energy
1126:axis of symmetry
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760:deletion process
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2071:
2064:have permission
2054:
2028:this simple FaQ
2013:
1998:
1993:
1961:
1954:have permission
1944:
1906:this simple FaQ
1891:
1854:
1823:
1800:
1795:
1763:
1756:have permission
1746:
1730:
1690:this simple FaQ
1675:
1609:
1607:Support removal
1566:
1561:
1543:
1542:
1538:, vol. 6, 1965.
1529:
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1509:Vinge, Vernor.
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1409:Computing Power
1368:
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1088:Goran Burenholt
1059:
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1001:The meaning of
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945:One note on LAR
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167:High‑importance
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137:High-importance
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524:Mid-importance
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385:the discussion
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368:History portal
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1833:and his book
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840:Transhumanism
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822:false dilemma
819:
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2074:source check
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2017:
2014:
1992:
1989:
1964:source check
1943:
1937:
1934:
1895:
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1873:
1869:
1864:Future Shock
1862:
1857:Joseph Petek
1841:Joseph Petek
1836:Future Shock
1834:
1824:
1819:Future Shock
1817:
1794:
1791:
1766:source check
1745:
1739:
1726:
1722:
1718:
1716:
1679:
1676:
1636:
1625:
1621:Ray Kurzweil
1617:Vernor Vinge
1615:, including
1610:
1590:
1567:— Preceding
1562:
1544:
1535:
1530:Good, I. J.
1526:
1517:
1505:
1492:transcendent
1476:
1470:
1459:Vernor Vinge
1452:
1444:Vernor Vinge
1412:
1387:
1363:
1327:
1291:
1270:
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1234:
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1211:
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1133:
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1111:
1107:
1102:
1097:homo sapiens
1095:
1091:
1084:Davis Nelson
1077:
1072:
1062:
1060:
1010:
1007:
1002:
966:
963:Article move
948:
930:
927:
900:— Preceding
893:
890:
887:
884:
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870:
829:
825:
818:false choice
810:
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741:
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703:
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669:
645:
551:project page
548:
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480:project page
469:
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414:
374:
287:
225:
185:
136:
96:
40:WikiProjects
1827:James Burke
1733:Sourcecheck
1594:aajacksoniv
1475:(1986) and
1369:—Preceding
1366:Mrsnuggless
1335:—Preceding
1274:80.45.66.80
955:Czar Dragon
832:this merge
772:And always
698:To-do lists
646:To Do List:
558:Quick help:
468:is part of
30:Start-class
2150:Categories
2111:Report bug
2001:Report bug
1803:Report bug
1573:Heresimach
1496:omnipotent
1467:I. J. Good
881:Criticisms
756:neologisms
303:Technology
294:technology
253:Technology
2094:this tool
2087:this tool
1984:this tool
1977:this tool
1786:this tool
1779:this tool
1494:, almost
1238:Thegreenj
1177:Aetheling
1112:next year
867:Edit made
112:Sociology
103:sociology
59:Sociology
2134:VoidHalo
2100:Cheers.—
1990:Cheers.—
1792:Cheers.—
1581:contribs
1569:unsigned
1564:since.
1395:Quiddity
1349:contribs
1337:unsigned
1231:Diagrams
1105:log plot
1031:Schaefer
971:Schaefer
914:contribs
902:unsigned
729:info box
609:be civil
2024:my edit
1902:my edit
1719:checked
1686:my edit
1657:Shajure
1639:Shajure
1629:Shajure
1546:Quiname
1371:undated
1092:exactly
830:against
676:be bold
655:history
526:on the
445:C‑class
417:on the
390:History
381:History
337:History
228:on the
139:on the
1727:failed
798:Expand
783:Create
713:, and
36:scale.
1874:uture
1315:Dzhim
1197:Dzhim
1155:Dzhim
1151:what?
1136:Dzhim
1117:wheel
1086:, or
1046:Uiweo
1028:. --
1015:Uiweo
820:into
663:purge
659:watch
2138:talk
1879:talk
1845:talk
1816:and
1723:true
1661:talk
1643:talk
1633:talk
1619:and
1598:talk
1577:talk
1550:talk
1465:and
1434:talk
1399:talk
1345:talk
1341:Roc1
1319:talk
1278:talk
1201:talk
1181:talk
1172:must
1159:talk
1140:talk
1108:must
1035:talk
991:talk
975:Talk
910:talk
834:here
674:and
651:edit
607:and
598:and
585:and
576:and
541:Show
220:High
131:High
2068:RfC
2038:to
1958:RfC
1928:to
1760:RfC
1737:).
1725:or
1710:to
1700:to
1446:'s
1415:DNA
1290:~~
828:or
826:for
518:Mid
409:Mid
2152::
2140:)
2081:.
2076:}}
2072:{{
1971:.
1966:}}
1962:{{
1881:)
1872:ix
1847:)
1773:.
1768:}}
1764:{{
1735:}}
1731:{{
1663:)
1645:)
1600:)
1583:)
1579:•
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1183:)
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1142:)
1134:--
1128:.
1082:,
993:)
916:)
912:•
661:-
657:-
653:-
594:,
2136:(
2113:)
2109:(
2096:.
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2003:)
1999:(
1986:.
1979:.
1877:(
1870:F
1859::
1855:@
1843:(
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1788:.
1781:.
1659:(
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1199:(
1187:.
1179:(
1175:—
1157:(
1138:(
1037:)
1033:(
989:(
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973:(
908:(
776:.
769:)
762:)
751:.
731:)
724:)
717:)
543::
530:.
504:C
421:.
232:.
143:.
42::
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