307:
of
Simultaneous Equations', marks a pivotal turning point, not in the statistical implications of econometric models, as historians typically presume, but in their causal counterparts." Haavelmo's idea that an economic model depicts a series of hypothetical experiments and that policies can be simulated by modifying equations in the model became the basis of all currently used formalisms of econometric causal inference. (The biostatistics and epidemiology literature on causal inference draws from different sources.) It was first operationalized by
743:
264:
while he subsequently traveled to Berlin, Geneva, and Oxford for additional studies. Haavelmo assumed a lecturing position at the
University of Aarhus in 1938 for one year and then in the subsequent year was offered an academic scholarship to travel abroad and study in the United States. During World
306:
wrote "Haavelmo was the first to recognize the capacity of economic models to guide policies" and "presented a mathematical procedure that takes an arbitrary model and produces quantitative answers to policy questions". According to Pearl, "Haavelmo's paper, 'The
Statistical Implications of a System
319:
in econometric models. Pearl further speculates that the reason economists do not generally appreciate these revolutionary contributions of
Haavelmo is because economists themselves have still not reached consensus of what an economic model stands for, as attested by profound disagreements among
33:
276:
between 1948–79 and was the trade department head of division from 1947–48. Haavelmo acquired a prominent position in modern economics through his logical critique of a series of custom conceptions in mathematical analysis.
315:(1960) who advocated "wiping out" selected equations, and then translated into graphical models as "wiping out" incoming arrows. This operation has subsequently led to Pearl's "do"-calculus and to a mathematical theory of
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260:. Haavelmo was Frisch's assistant for a period of time until he was appointed as head of computations for the institute. In 1936, Haavelmo studied statistics at
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2015:
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1981:
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in the
Statistical Department in New York City. He received his PhD in 1946 for his work on The Probability Approach in Econometrics.
2227:
1420:
237:
193:
2081:
1182:
2982:
2202:
778:
673:
Balke, Alex; Pearl, Judea (1995). Besnard, P.; Hanks, S. (eds.). "Counterfactuals and policy analysis in structural models".
896:
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from the
University of Oslo in 1930 and eventually joined the Institute of Economics with the recommendation of
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1062:
1024:
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633:
Pearl, Judea (1994). Lopez de
Mantaras, R.; Poole, D. (eds.). "A probabilistic calculus of actions".
542:
Strotz, R.H.; Wold, H.O.A. (1960). "Recursive versus nonrecursive systems: An attempt at synthesis".
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Rubin, Donald (2005). "Causal inference using potential outcomes: Design, modeling, decisions".
408:"Sky Nobelpros-vinner stakk fra pressen" (in Norwegian). Norwegian News Agency. 11 October 1989.
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125:
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Haavelmo, T. (1943). "The statistical implications of a system of simultaneous equations".
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foundations of econometrics and his analyses of simultaneous economic structures."
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813:"Regression and Causation: A Critical Examination of Six Econometrics Textbooks"
705:"Regression and Causation: A Critical Examination of Six Econometrics Textbooks"
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458:
Pearl, Judea (2015). "Trygve
Haavelmo and the Emergence of Causal Calculus".
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169:
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1310:
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989:
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2019:
1974:
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1117:
979:
969:
563:
444:
266:
201:
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Forthcoming, Econometric Theory, special issue on
Haavelmo Centennial
692:. Chapter 7 (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
253:
229:
555:
436:
643:
292:
32:
221:
53:
662:(2nd (2009) ed.). New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
225:
79:
57:
874:
806:. UCLA Computer Science Department, Technical Report R-391.
75:
2347:
587:"Comment: Graphical models, causality, and intervention"
427:, Cambridge University Press, New York, 440–453, 1995.
797:"Trygve Haavelmo and the Emergence of Causal Calculus"
617:
272:
He was a professor of economics and statistics at the
423:. Reprinted in D.F. Hendry and M.S. Morgan (Eds.),
618:Spirtes, P.; Glymour, C. N.; Scheines, R. (1993).
344:(in Norwegian). Oslo katedralskole. Archived from
849:Laureate of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics
2944:
391:"Norwegian Wins Nobel For His Work in Economics"
746:including the Nobel Lecture on 7 December 1989
508:Journal of the American Statistical Association
338:"Oslo Katedralskole - en skole med tradisjoner"
2096:
2333:
2082:
1401:
890:
1421:Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences
753:Model Discovery and Trygve Haavelmo’s Legacy
690:Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference
660:Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference
220:(13 December 1911 – 28 July 1999), born in
2340:
2326:
2089:
2075:
1408:
1394:
897:
883:
741:
672:
541:
31:
810:
702:
675:Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 11
642:
635:Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 10
602:
473:
238:Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences
194:Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences
3028:People educated at Oslo Cathedral School
418:
388:
425:The Foundations of Econometric Analysis
2945:
16:Norwegian economist and econometrician
3013:Presidents of the Econometric Society
2321:
2070:
1389:
878:
794:
779:The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
687:
657:
632:
584:
504:
457:
232:whose research interests centered on
389:Prokesch, Steven (12 October 1989).
183:Probability approach in econometrics
2963:Alumni of University College London
811:Chen, Bryant; Pearl, Judea (2013).
703:Chen, Bryant; Pearl, Judea (2013).
295:. He died on 28 July 1999 in Oslo.
13:
3008:Fellows of the Econometric Society
748:Econometrics and the Welfare State
401:
280:In 1989, Haavelmo was awarded the
14:
3039:
3018:20th-century Norwegian economists
726:
620:Causation, prediction, and search
784:Library of Economics and Liberty
622:. New York, NY: Springer-Verlag.
252:, Haavelmo received a degree in
1497:Leonid Vitaliyevich Kantorovich
696:
681:
666:
651:
626:
611:
291:Haavelmo resided at Østerås in
904:
578:
535:
498:
451:
412:
382:
360:
330:
284:"for his clarification of the
1:
774:"Trygve Haavelmo (1911–1999)"
323:
2983:Nobel laureates in Economics
767:Trygve Haavelmo Growth Model
243:
7:
2913:Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg
820:Real-World Economics Review
712:Real-World Economics Review
10:
3044:
1489:Friedrich August von Hayek
521:10.1198/016214504000001880
185:Balanced budget multiplier
2973:Norwegian Nobel laureates
2958:University of Oslo alumni
2771:
2603:
2442:
2359:
2245:
2226:
2201:
2170:
2151:
2131:
2106:
1887:Christopher A. Pissarides
1761:
1510:
1427:
1359:
1196:
1048:
930:
914:
855:
846:
838:
833:
484:10.1017/S0266466614000231
298:
262:University College London
211:
200:
189:
179:
161:
151:
139:
134:University College London
117:
103:
98:
94:
86:
64:
39:
30:
23:
3003:Neo-Keynesian economists
2968:Norwegian mathematicians
2180:Norman Foster Ramsey Jr.
282:Nobel Prize in Economics
1266:Stephany Griffith-Jones
320:econometric textbooks.
206:IDEAS / RePEc
146:Neo-Keynesian economics
2251:Nobel Prize recipients
2203:Physiology or Medicine
2118:(Canada/United States)
1078:John Kenneth Galbraith
265:War II he worked with
218:Trygve Magnus Haavelmo
25:Trygve Magnus Haavelmo
2695:Jean-Michel Grandmont
1608:James M. Buchanan Jr.
795:Pearl, Judea (2014).
688:Pearl, Judea (2009).
658:Pearl, Judea (2000).
604:10.1214/ss/1177010894
585:Pearl, Judea (1993).
250:Oslo Cathedral School
126:University of Chicago
2744:Robert E. Lucas, Jr.
2714:Jean-Jacques Laffont
1871:Oliver E. Williamson
1501:Tjalling C. Koopmans
1168:Pavlina R. Tcherneva
733:List of publications
370:. University of Oslo
122:University of Aarhus
2988:People from Skedsmo
2852:Jean-Charles Rochet
2683:Anthony B. Atkinson
2403:John Maynard Keynes
2353:Econometric Society
1899:Christopher A. Sims
1827:Thomas C. Schelling
1799:Robert F. Engle III
1700:Robert E. Lucas Jr.
1548:Theodore W. Schultz
1373:Keynesian economics
922:John Maynard Keynes
591:Statistical Science
166:John Maynard Keynes
2629:Franklin M. Fisher
2546:Hendrik Houthakker
2186:Hans Georg Dehmelt
1815:Edward C. Prescott
1803:Clive W.J. Granger
1779:Joseph E. Stiglitz
1752:Daniel L. McFadden
1640:Harry M. Markowitz
1073:James K. Galbraith
1010:Arthur Melvin Okun
859:Harry M. Markowitz
740:on Nobelprize.org
461:Econometric Theory
395:The New York Times
286:probability theory
274:University of Oslo
236:. He received the
156:University of Oslo
130:University of Oslo
3023:Nortraship people
2940:
2939:
2931:Eliana La Ferrara
2822:Lars Peter Hansen
2810:Thomas J. Sargent
2720:Andreu Mas-Colell
2689:Hugo Sonnenschein
2647:James A. Mirrlees
2516:Franco Modigliani
2433:Tjalling Koopmans
2391:Joseph Schumpeter
2315:
2314:
2228:Economic Sciences
2211:J. Michael Bishop
2064:
2063:
1963:Richard H. Thaler
1927:Robert J. Shiller
1923:Lars Peter Hansen
1895:Thomas J. Sargent
1883:Dale T. Mortensen
1775:A. Michael Spence
1771:George A. Akerlof
1740:Robert A. Mundell
1708:James A. Mirrlees
1676:Douglass C. North
1648:William F. Sharpe
1600:Franco Modigliani
1576:George J. Stigler
1560:Lawrence R. Klein
1449:Paul A. Samuelson
1383:
1382:
1271:Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
1216:Olivier Blanchard
1173:Anthony Thirlwall
1000:Franco Modigliani
950:James Duesenberry
873:
872:
867:William F. Sharpe
856:Succeeded by
769:by Elmer G. Wiens
368:"Trygve Haavelmo"
215:
214:
3035:
2907:Orazio Attanasio
2865:James J. Heckman
2860:
2834:Roger B. Myerson
2816:Richard Blundell
2804:Ariel Rubinstein
2793:
2756:Robert B. Wilson
2732:Christopher Sims
2703:
2534:Michio Morishima
2522:Edmond Malinvaud
2468:Wassily Leontief
2379:Harold Hotelling
2373:François Divisia
2342:
2335:
2328:
2319:
2318:
2253:
2217:Harold E. Varmus
2144:Camilo José Cela
2091:
2084:
2077:
2068:
2067:
2057:
2049:
2047:Philip H. Dybvig
2030:
2011:
2009:Robert B. Wilson
1996:
1986:Abhijit Banerjee
1977:
1971:William Nordhaus
1965:
1957:
1945:
1937:
1929:
1913:
1911:Lloyd S. Shapley
1901:
1889:
1879:Peter A. Diamond
1873:
1861:
1853:
1851:Roger B. Myerson
1837:
1835:Edmund S. Phelps
1829:
1823:Robert J. Aumann
1817:
1805:
1793:
1781:
1754:
1748:James J. Heckman
1742:
1734:
1726:
1724:Myron S. Scholes
1720:Robert C. Merton
1714:
1702:
1694:
1688:John F. Nash Jr.
1684:John C. Harsanyi
1678:
1666:
1658:
1650:
1644:Merton H. Miller
1634:
1626:
1618:
1610:
1602:
1594:
1586:
1578:
1570:
1562:
1554:
1552:Sir Arthur Lewis
1542:
1540:Herbert A. Simon
1534:
1522:
1503:
1491:
1479:
1477:Wassily Leontief
1471:
1469:Kenneth J. Arrow
1459:
1451:
1443:
1410:
1403:
1396:
1387:
1386:
1371:
1346:Michael Woodford
1336:Lawrence Summers
1291:Maurice Obstfeld
1261:Robert J. Gordon
1183:Sidney Weintraub
1163:G. L. S. Shackle
899:
892:
885:
876:
875:
863:Merton H. Miller
839:Preceded by
831:
830:
827:
817:
807:
801:
791:
786:(2nd ed.).
745:
720:
719:
709:
700:
694:
693:
685:
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678:
670:
664:
663:
655:
649:
648:
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630:
624:
623:
615:
609:
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582:
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539:
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532:
515:(469): 322–331.
502:
496:
495:
477:
455:
449:
448:
416:
410:
409:
405:
399:
398:
386:
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379:
377:
375:
364:
358:
357:
355:
353:
348:on 19 April 2014
334:
309:Robert H. Strotz
248:After attending
71:
50:13 December 1911
49:
47:
35:
21:
20:
3043:
3042:
3038:
3037:
3036:
3034:
3033:
3032:
2953:Econometricians
2943:
2942:
2941:
2936:
2919:Guido Tabellini
2871:Manuel Arellano
2854:
2846:Bengt Holmström
2828:Torsten Persson
2787:
2767:
2762:Elhanan Helpman
2738:Roger Guesnerie
2726:Takashi Negishi
2697:
2665:Daniel McFadden
2635:J. Denis Sargan
2617:Lionel McKenzie
2599:
2486:Trygve Haavelmo
2438:
2397:Wesley Mitchell
2355:
2346:
2316:
2311:
2249:
2241:
2236:Trygve Haavelmo
2222:
2219:(United States)
2213:(United States)
2197:
2182:(United States)
2166:
2161:14th Dalai Lama
2147:
2127:
2124:(United States)
2102:
2095:
2065:
2060:
2052:
2043:Douglas Diamond
2033:
2014:
1999:
1980:
1968:
1960:
1955:Bengt Holmström
1948:
1940:
1932:
1916:
1904:
1892:
1876:
1864:
1856:
1840:
1832:
1820:
1811:Finn E. Kydland
1808:
1796:
1791:Vernon L. Smith
1787:Daniel Kahneman
1784:
1768:
1757:
1745:
1737:
1729:
1717:
1712:William Vickrey
1705:
1697:
1692:Reinhard Selten
1681:
1672:Robert W. Fogel
1669:
1661:
1656:Ronald H. Coase
1653:
1637:
1632:Trygve Haavelmo
1629:
1621:
1616:Robert M. Solow
1613:
1605:
1597:
1589:
1581:
1573:
1565:
1557:
1545:
1537:
1525:
1520:Milton Friedman
1517:
1506:
1494:
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1474:
1462:
1454:
1446:
1434:
1423:
1414:
1384:
1379:
1378:
1377:
1376:
1375:
1368:
1355:
1331:Joseph Stiglitz
1326:Andrei Shleifer
1316:Julio Rotemberg
1246:Stanley Fischer
1231:Richard Clarida
1226:Guillermo Calvo
1192:
1188:L. Randall Wray
1178:William Vickrey
1153:Steven Pressman
1108:Nicholas Kaldor
1088:Myron J. Gordon
1050:Post-Keynesians
1044:
960:Trygve Haavelmo
926:
910:
903:
869:
865:
861:
852:
844:
815:
799:
772:
757:David F. Hendry
738:Trygve Haavelmo
729:
724:
723:
707:
701:
697:
686:
682:
671:
667:
656:
652:
631:
627:
616:
612:
583:
579:
556:10.2307/1907731
540:
536:
503:
499:
475:10.1.1.687.1860
456:
452:
437:10.2307/1905714
417:
413:
407:
406:
402:
387:
383:
373:
371:
366:
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349:
336:
335:
331:
326:
317:counterfactuals
301:
246:
184:
172:
168:
152:Alma mater
141:
132:
128:
124:
99:Academic career
82:
73:
69:
60:
51:
45:
43:
26:
17:
12:
11:
5:
3041:
3031:
3030:
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3020:
3015:
3010:
3005:
3000:
2995:
2990:
2985:
2980:
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2970:
2965:
2960:
2955:
2938:
2937:
2935:
2934:
2928:
2922:
2916:
2910:
2904:
2901:Stephen Morris
2898:
2892:
2889:Drew Fudenberg
2886:
2880:
2874:
2868:
2862:
2849:
2843:
2837:
2831:
2825:
2819:
2813:
2807:
2801:
2795:
2782:
2775:
2773:
2769:
2768:
2766:
2765:
2759:
2753:
2747:
2741:
2735:
2729:
2723:
2717:
2711:
2705:
2692:
2686:
2680:
2677:Dale Jorgenson
2674:
2668:
2662:
2659:Amartya K. Sen
2656:
2650:
2644:
2638:
2632:
2626:
2620:
2614:
2611:Hirofumi Uzawa
2607:
2605:
2601:
2600:
2598:
2597:
2591:
2585:
2579:
2573:
2567:
2561:
2558:Leonid Hurwicz
2555:
2549:
2543:
2537:
2531:
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180:Contributions
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170:Ragnar Frisch
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2772:2001–present
2641:Marc Nerlove
2623:János Kornai
2588:Don Patinkin
2576:W. M. Gorman
2528:Robert Solow
2485:
2421:Charles Roos
2281:
2235:
2039:Ben Bernanke
2028:Guido Imbens
2005:Paul Milgrom
1990:Esther Duflo
1943:Angus Deaton
1859:Paul Krugman
1762:2001–present
1631:
1528:Bertil Ohlin
1351:Janet Yellen
1301:Ricardo Reis
1276:Paul Krugman
1256:Mark Gertler
1221:Alan Blinder
1211:Ben Bernanke
1138:Hyman Minsky
1103:Richard Kahn
1083:Wynne Godley
1035:Robert Solow
1015:Don Patinkin
965:Alvin Hansen
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372:. Retrieved
362:
350:. Retrieved
346:the original
341:
332:
302:
290:
279:
271:
247:
234:econometrics
217:
216:
112:econometrics
70:(1999-07-26)
68:26 July 1999
18:
2998:1999 deaths
2993:1911 births
2883:Eddie Dekel
2855: [
2798:Eric Maskin
2788: [
2785:Guy Laroque
2750:Jean Tirole
2698: [
2540:Herman Wold
2510:Henri Theil
2492:James Tobin
2405:(1944–1945)
2399:(1942–1943)
2393:(1940–1941)
2387:(1938–1939)
2381:(1936–1937)
2369:(1931–1934)
2122:Thomas Cech
2099:Nobel Prize
1951:Oliver Hart
1935:Jean Tirole
1732:Amartya Sen
1568:James Tobin
1311:David Romer
1286:Marc Melitz
1281:Greg Mankiw
1236:Brad DeLong
1148:Basil Moore
1128:Marc Lavoie
1068:Evsey Domar
1040:James Tobin
990:James Meade
637:: 454–462.
468:: 152–179.
431:(1): 1–43.
313:Herman Wold
304:Judea Pearl
202:Information
118:Institution
87:Nationality
2978:Keynesians
2947:Categories
2895:Tim Besley
2582:Roy Radner
2552:Frank Hahn
2349:Presidents
2133:Literature
2020:David Card
1975:Paul Romer
1251:Jordi Galí
1123:Jan Kregel
1118:Steve Keen
980:John Hicks
970:Roy Harrod
907:Keynesians
324:References
267:Nortraship
162:Influences
46:1911-12-13
2604:1976–2000
2443:1951–1975
2360:1931–1950
2194:(Germany)
2188:(Germany)
2108:Chemistry
2101:laureates
1511:1976–2000
1428:1969–1975
1417:Laureates
1241:Huw Dixon
644:1302.6835
492:232151859
470:CiteSeerX
374:4 January
342:Om skolen
254:economics
244:Biography
240:in 1989.
230:economist
228:, was an
142:tradition
90:Norwegian
2462:René Roy
2238:(Norway)
677:: 11–18.
352:19 April
2351:of the
2172:Physics
2163:(Tibet)
2146:(Spain)
1419:of the
1360:Related
915:Founder
834:Awards
826:: 2–20.
790:. 2008.
718:: 2–20.
572:6584147
564:1907731
445:1905714
222:Skedsmo
54:Skedsmo
2933:(2024)
2927:(2023)
2921:(2022)
2915:(2021)
2909:(2020)
2903:(2019)
2897:(2018)
2891:(2017)
2885:(2016)
2879:(2015)
2873:(2014)
2867:(2013)
2861:(2012)
2848:(2011)
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2596:(1975)
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