668:
constant in 2010 because of the economic recession, and to rise only briefly before declining and turning to cash flow deficits beginning in 2016 that grow as the baby boom generation retires. The deficits will be made up by redeeming trust fund assets until reserves are exhausted in 2037, at which point tax income would be sufficient to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits through 2083. Medicare's financial status is much worse. As was true in 2008, Medicare's
Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund is expected to pay out more in hospital benefits and other expenditures this year than it receives in taxes and other dedicated revenues. The difference will be made up by redeeming trust fund assets. Growing annual deficits are projected to exhaust HI reserves in 2017, after which the percentage of scheduled benefits payable from tax income would decline from 81 percent in 2017 to about 50 percent in 2035 and 30 percent in 2080. In addition, the Medicare Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund that pays for physician services and the prescription drug benefit will continue to require general revenue financing and charges on beneficiaries that grow substantially faster than the economy and beneficiary incomes over time.
601:
1133:
704:
847:
non-marketable
Treasury securities. The Social Security surplus reduces the amount of U.S. Treasury borrowing from the public, as the surplus funds may be used for other government purposes. The total balance of the trust funds was $ 2.4 trillion in 2008 and is estimated to reach $ 3.7 trillion by 2016. At that point, payments will exceed payroll tax revenues, resulting in the gradual reduction of the trust funds balance as the securities are redeemed against other types of government revenues. By 2037, according to some estimates, the trust funds will be exhausted. Under current law, Social Security payouts would be reduced by 24% at that time, as only payroll taxes are authorized to cover benefits.
773:
65:
519:
750:
will be difficult, in part because of the complexity of health policy choices—is ultimately the nation’s central long-term challenge in setting federal fiscal policy." Further, the CBO also projects that "total federal
Medicare and Medicaid outlays will rise from 4 percent of GDP in 2007 to 12 percent in 2050 and 19 percent in 2082—which, as a share of the economy, is roughly equivalent to the total amount that the federal government spends today. The bulk of that projected increase in health care spending reflects higher costs per beneficiary rather than an increase in the number of beneficiaries associated with an aging population."
781:
533:
609:
593:
947:
446:
507:(CBO) reports the costs of mandatory spending programs in a variety of annual and special topic publications. Congress can affect spending on entitlement programs by changing eligibility requirements or the structure of programs. Certain entitlement programs, because the language authorizing them are included in appropriation bills, are termed "appropriated entitlements." This is a convention rather than a substantive distinction, since the programs, such as Food Stamps, would continue to be funded even if the appropriation bill were to be vetoed or otherwise not enacted.
1000:
1038:
60:
438:
916:
585:
454:
1046:
696:
1021:
that emergency supplemental appropriations bills do not receive the same level of legislative care as regular appropriations bills. In addition, emergency supplemental appropriations are not subject to the same budget enforcement mechanisms imposed on regular appropriations. Funding for the first stages of the
Vietnam War was provided by supplemental appropriations, although President Johnson eventually acceded to Congressional demands to fund that war through the regular appropriations process.
996:
United States directly on conventional military terms. The United States cannot take its current dominance for granted and needs to invest in the programs, platforms, and personnel that will ensure that dominance's persistence. But it is also important to keep some perspective. As much as the U.S. Navy has shrunk since the end of the Cold War, for example, in terms of tonnage, its battle fleet is still larger than the next 13 navies combined—and 11 of those 13 navies are U.S. allies or partners."
22:
988:
repeal of Bush's tax cuts for the very wealthy. I am working with a variety of thoughtful analysts to show how we can make very substantial cuts in the military budget without in any way diminishing the security we need... well-being is far more endangered by a proposal for substantial reductions in
Medicare, Social Security or other important domestic areas than it would be by canceling weapons systems that have no justification from any threat we are likely to face."
570:(CBO) estimates that Social Security spending will rise from 4.8% of GDP in 2009 to 6.2% of GDP by 2035, where it will stabilize. However, the CBO expects Medicare and Medicaid to continue growing, rising from 5.3% GDP in 2009 to 10.0% in 2035 and 19.0% by 2082. CBO has indicated healthcare spending per beneficiary is the primary long-term fiscal challenge. Further, multiple government and private sources have indicated the overall expenditure path is unsustainable.
1121:
955:
1054:
797:
billion annual surplus. An estimated 156 million people paid into the program and 53 million received benefits, roughly 2.94 workers per beneficiary. During 2008, total benefits of $ 625 billion were paid out versus income (taxes and interest) of $ 805 billion, a $ 180 billion annual surplus. An estimated 162 million people paid into the program and 51 million received benefits, roughly 3.2 workers per beneficiary.
429:), or "discretionary", with payment amounts renewed annually as part of the budget process, such as defense. Around two thirds of federal spending is for "mandatory" programs. CBO projects that mandatory program spending and interest costs will rise relative to GDP over the 2016–2026 period, while defense and other discretionary spending will decline relative to GDP.
500:. These programs are called "entitlements" because individuals satisfying given eligibility requirements set by past legislation are entitled to Federal government benefits or services. Many other expenses, such as salaries of Federal judges, are mandatory, but account for a relatively small share of federal spending.
839:(from the current 12.4%) or cutting benefits by 13.3% would address the program's budgetary concerns indefinitely; these amounts increase to around 16% and 24% if no changes are made until 2037. Projections of Social Security's solvency are sensitive to assumptions about rates of economic growth and demographic changes.
1074:(e.g., the Environmental Protection Agency), although these are often the recipients of some mandatory funding as well. Discretionary budget authority is established annually by Congress, as opposed to mandatory spending that is required by laws that span multiple years, such as Social Security or Medicare.
1111:
Several politicians and think tanks have proposed freezing non-defense discretionary spending at particular levels and holding this spending constant for various periods of time. President Obama proposed freezing discretionary spending representing approximately 12% of the budget in his 2011 State of
1028:
In principle, the
Department of Defense (DoD) separates war funding from base funding. In most cases, however, funds for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan use the same accounts as other DoD accounts. This raises challenges to attempts to achieve a precise separation of expenditures on operations in
995:
wrote in
January 2009 that the U.S. should adjust its priorities and spending to address the changing nature of threats in the world: "What all these potential adversaries—from terrorist cells to rogue nations to rising powers—have in common is that they have learned that it is unwise to confront the
891:
The CBO reported in July 2010 the effects of a series of policy options on the "actuarial balance" shortfall, which over the 75 year horizon is approximately 0.6% of GDP. This is slightly different from the 0.7% estimated by the Social
Security Trustees, as indicated above. For example, CBO estimates
825:
Redemption of Trust Fund claims means that the government will have to borrow an additional $ 2.4 trillion in total (based on the 2008 Trust Fund balance) over approximately 20 years, from the time the program payouts begin to exceed tax collections around 2015 to the time the Trust Fund is exhausted
757:
The present value of unfunded obligations under all parts of
Medicare during FY 2007 is approximately $ 34.1 trillion. In other words, this amount would have to be set aside today such that the principal and interest would cover the shortfall over the next 75 years. This is over six times as large as
736:
were proposed for healthcare, including
Medicare and Medicaid. Examples include: comparative effectiveness research; independent review panels; modifying doctor incentives to focus on better care rather than fee for service; addressing a shortage of doctors and nurses; taxing healthcare benefits paid
672:
Since the government borrowed and spent the trust funds' assets, there is no "lockbox" or marketable investment portfolio of $ 2.4 trillion for Social Security or $ 380 billion for Medicare. The trust funds contain non-marketable treasury securities that the government is legally obligated to pay. In
616:
Social Security and Medicare expenditures are funded by permanent appropriations and so are considered mandatory spending according to the 1997 Budget Enforcement Act (BEA). Social Security and Medicare are sometimes called "entitlements," because people meeting relevant eligibility requirements are
846:
were adopted in the early 1980s, Social Security payroll taxes have exceeded benefit payments. In FY2008, Social Security received $ 180 billion more in payroll taxes and accrued interest than it paid out in benefits. This annual surplus is credited to Social Security trust funds that hold special
667:
The financial condition of the Social Security and Medicare programs remains challenging. Projected long run program costs are not sustainable under current program parameters. Social Security's annual surpluses of tax income over expenditures are expected to fall sharply this year and to stay about
658:
Mandatory programs are affected by demographic trends. The number of workers continues declining relative to those receiving benefits. For example, the number of workers per retiree was 5.1 in 1960; this declined to 3.3 in 2007 and is projected to decline to 2.1 by 2040. According to census data for
1024:
Budget authority is legal authority to obligate the federal government. For many war-related activities there may be a long lag between the time when budget authority is granted and when payments (outlays) are made by the U.S. Treasury. In particular, spending on reconstruction activities in Iraq
1007:
In 2009, the US Department of Defense's annual report to Congress on China's military strength offered several estimates of actual 2008 Chinese military spending. In terms of the prevailing exchange rate, Pentagon estimates range between US$ 105 and US$ 150 billion, the second highest in the world
805:
Social Security is funded by a dedicated payroll tax of 12.4%. This means that Social Security will be paid at least to the extent of payroll tax collections. Program payroll tax collections were roughly equal to payouts in 2010 and are estimated to fall to about 75% of payouts by the mid-2030s and
745:
Spending on Medicare and Medicaid is projected to grow dramatically in coming decades. The number of persons enrolled in Medicare is expected to increase from 47 million in 2010 to 80 million by 2030. While the same demographic trends that affect Social Security also affect Medicare, rapidly rising
659:
2011, 16% of the population lived in a household where at least one individual received Social Security and 15% lived in a household where at least one individual received Medicare. From 2012 to 2027, approximately 78 million individuals will retire and begin receiving Social Security and Medicare.
417:
During FY2022, the federal government spent $ 6.3 trillion. Spending as % of GDP is 25.1%, almost 2 percentage points greater than the average over the past 50 years. Major categories of FY 2022 spending included: Medicare and Medicaid ($ 1,339B or 5.4% of GDP), Social Security ($ 1.2T or 4.8%
966:
President Obama's 2010 budget proposal includes a total of $ 663.8 billion, including $ 533.8 billion for the DOD and $ 130 billion for overseas contingencies, primarily the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The proposed DoD base budget represents an increase of $ 20.5 billion over the $ 513.3 billion
895:
CBO estimated in January 2012 that raising the full retirement age for Social Security from 67 to 70 would reduce outlays by about 13%. Raising the early retirement age from 62 to 64 has little impact, as those who wait longer to begin receiving benefits get a higher amount. Raising the retirement
830:
Social Security spending will increase sharply over the next decades, largely due to the retirement of the baby boom generation. The number of program recipients is expected to increase from 44 million in 2010 to 73 million in 2030. Program spending is projected to rise from 4.8% of GDP in 2010 to
753:
President Obama stated in May 2009: "But we know that our families, our economy, and our nation itself will not succeed in the 21st century if we continue to be held down by the weight of rapidly rising health care costs and a broken health care system...Our businesses will not be able to compete;
749:
The CBO has indicated that: "Future growth in spending per beneficiary for Medicare and Medicaid—the federal government’s major health care programs—will be the most important determinant of long-term trends in federal spending. Changing those programs in ways that reduce the growth of costs—which
662:
These programs are also affected by per-person costs, which are also expected to increase at a rate significantly higher than the economy. The unfavorable combination of demographics and per-capita rate increases is expected to drive both Social Security and Medicare into large deficits during the
1128:
Interest expense on the public debt was approximately $ 678 billion in FY2023. During FY2023, the government also accrued a non-cash interest expense of $ 197 billion for intra-governmental debt, primarily the Social Security Trust Fund, for a total interest expense of $ 875 billion. This accrued
1020:
Much of the costs for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have not been funded through regular appropriations bills, but through emergency supplemental appropriations bills. As such, most of these expenses were not included in the budget deficit calculation prior to FY2010. Some budget experts argue
838:
projected in 2010 that an increase in payroll taxes ranging from 1.6–2.1% of the payroll tax base, equivalent to 0.6%-0.8% of GDP, would be necessary to put the Social Security program in fiscal balance for the next 75 years. In other words, raising the payroll tax rate to about 14.4% during 2009
821:
The Trust Fund represents a legal claim by Social Security recipients, enabling them to compel the government to borrow or otherwise fund 100% of program obligations as long as Trust Fund amounts remain. As sources of funds (other than the dedicated payroll taxes) are diverted to the program, the
654:
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2011 49.1% of the U.S. population lived in a household where at least one household member received a government benefit including Social Security and Medicare. This figure represented an increase from 30% in the early 1980s and 44.4% in 2008. While federal
650:
Since the federal government has historically collected about 18.4% of GDP in tax revenues, this means these three mandatory programs may absorb all federal revenues sometime around 2050. Unless these long-term fiscal imbalances are addressed by reforms to these programs, raising taxes or drastic
1150:
Federal spending per capita (that is, per person in the U.S.) was approximately $ 11,551 during 2011, versus $ 6,338 in 2000. Adjusted for inflation, these amounts were $ 5,133 in 2011 and $ 3,496 in 2000. Adjusted for inflation, federal spending per person remained around $ 3,500 throughout the
1077:
The Federal government spent approximately $ 600 billion during 2016 on the Cabinet departments and Agencies, excluding the Department of Defense, representing 16% of budgeted expenditures or about 3.3% of GDP. The 2011 budget included estimated spending for 2010, shown in the graph at right for
987:
called for a significant reduction in the defense budget during February 2009: "The math is compelling: if we do not make reductions approximating 25 percent of the military budget starting fairly soon, it will be impossible to continue to fund an adequate level of domestic activity even with a
962:
During FY 2009, the GAO reported that the U.S. government incurred approximately $ 683 billion in expenses for the Department of Defense (DoD) and $ 54 billion for Homeland Security, a total of $ 737 billion. The GAO financial statements present data on an accrual basis, meaning as expenses are
796:
program officially called "Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance" (OASDI), in reference to its three components. It is primarily funded through a dedicated payroll tax. During 2009, total benefits of $ 686 billion were paid out versus income (taxes and interest) of $ 807 billion, a $ 121
1081:
Funding for the Department of Defense is mostly discretionary, but is excluded from this total and analyzed separately in this article. However, certain defense-related spending is included in other departments, such as Homeland Security and Veteran's Affairs. The U.S. Constitution (Article I,
854:
of unfunded obligations under Social Security as of January 1, 2009 has been estimated at approximately $ 5.3 trillion over a 75-year horizon. In other words, this amount would have to be set aside today such that the principal and interest would cover the shortfall over the next 75 years. The
655:
outlay for welfare was reduced by half since 1996, programs such as food stamps have seen increases in spending. In 2012, 35% of the U.S. population lived in a household that received government benefits, counting only means-tested programs such as food stamps, housing assistance and Medicaid.
720:
Part B (Supplementary Medical Insurance, or SMI) covers physician services, outpatient services, and home health and preventive services. The SMI trust fund is funded through beneficiary premiums (set at 25% of estimated program costs for the aged) and general revenues (the remaining amount,
550:
Over the past 40 years, mandatory spending for programs like Medicare and Social Security has grown as a share of the budget and relative to GDP, while other discretionary categories have declined. Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security grew from 4.3% of GDP in 1971 to 10.7% of GDP in 2016.
822:
Trust Fund balance is reduced. Once the Trust Fund is liquidated in the mid-2030s under various estimates, program payouts will fall to about 75% of currently scheduled benefits. Social Security then becomes a true "pay as you go" program, without Trust Fund amounts to cover shortfalls.
638:
As a share of federal budget, mandatory spending has increased over time. Mandatory spending accounted for 53% of total federal outlays in FY2008, with net interest payments accounting for an additional 8.5%. In 2011, mandatory spending had increased to 56% of federal outlays.
663:
21st century. Multiple government sources have argued these programs are fiscally unsustainable as presently structured due to the extent of future borrowing and related interest required to fund them; here is a 2009 summary from the Social Security and Medicare Trustees:
967:
enacted for fiscal 2009. This is an increase of 4%, or 2.1% percent real growth after adjusting for inflation. The fiscal 2010 budget proposal brought the overseas contingency supplemental requests into the budget process, adding the $ 130 billion amount to the deficit.
974:
The DoD baseline budget, excluding supplemental funding for the wars, has grown from $ 297 billion in FY2001 to a budgeted $ 534 billion for FY2010, an 81% increase. According to the CBO, defense spending grew 9% annually on average from fiscal year 2000–2009.
620:
Some programs, such as Food Stamps, are appropriated entitlements. Some mandatory spending, such as Congressional salaries, is not part of any entitlement program. Funds to make federal interest payments have been automatically appropriated since 1847.
1129:
interest is added to the Social Security Trust Fund and therefore the national debt each year and will be paid to Social Security recipients in the future. However, since it is a non-cash expense it is excluded from the budget deficit calculation.
724:
Part C (Medicare Advantage, or MA) is a private plan option for beneficiaries that covers all Part A and B services, except hospice. Individuals choosing to enroll in Part C must also enroll in Part B. Part C is funded through the HI and SMI trust
800:
There is significant confusion about the program, due in part to the accounting for surplus payroll tax receipts and the agendas of various political constituencies. A few key points to understand under current law, if no reforms are implemented:
716:
Part A (Hospital Insurance, or HI) covers inpatient hospital services, skilled nursing care, and home health and hospice care. The HI trust fund is mainly funded by a dedicated payroll tax of 2.9% of earnings, shared equally between employers and
970:
The U.S. defense budget (excluding spending for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Homeland Security, and Veteran's Affairs) is around 4% of GDP. Adding these other costs places defense and homeland security spending between 5% and 6% of GDP.
892:
that raising the payroll tax by two percentage points (from 12.4% to 14.4%) over 20 years would increase annual program revenues by 0.6% of GDP, solving the 75-year shortfall. The various impacts are summarized in the CBO chart at right.
813:
in the early 1980s, Social Security has cumulatively collected far more in payroll taxes dedicated to the program than it has paid out to recipients—nearly $ 2.4 trillion by 2008. This surplus amount is commonly referred to as the
1016:
CBO estimated in January 2010 that approximately $ 1.1 trillion was authorized for spending on the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars between 2001 and 2010. Spending peaked in 2008 at $ 187 billion and declined to $ 130 billion by 2010.
866:
for Social Security. Examples include reducing future annual cost of living adjustments (COLA) provided to recipients, raising the retirement age, and raising the income limit subject to the payroll tax ($ 106,800 in 2009). The
711:
Medicare was established in 1965 and expanded thereafter. In 2009, the program covered an estimated 45 million persons (38 million aged and 7 million disabled). It consists of four distinct parts which are funded differently:
642:
From 1991 to 2011, mandatory spending grew from 10.1 percent to 13.6 percent of GDP, according to figures from the Congressional Budget Office. This spending is expected to continue to increase as a share of GDP. According to
859:. For a GDP of approximately $ 14 trillion in 2009, this 0.7% gap is roughly $ 100 billion per year or 5% of tax revenue. Over an infinite time horizon, these shortfalls average 3.4% of the payroll tax base and 1.2% of GDP.
546:
CBO projects that spending for Social Security, healthcare programs and interest costs will rise relative to GDP between 2017 and 2027, while defense and other discretionary spending will decline relative to GDP.
737:
for by employers; addressing tort reform and defensive medicine; preventing obesity and related expensive conditions; addressing fraud; streamlining redundant payment systems; and improved healthcare technology.
1136:
U.S. spending per person from 1980 to 2011. Blue line indicates nominal spending per person, while the cyan line is adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food and energy.
1025:
and Afghanistan has lagged behind available budget authority. In other cases, the military uses contracts that are payable upon completion, which can create long lags between appropriations and outlays.
25:
CBO: U.S. Federal spending and revenue components for fiscal year 2023. Major expenditure categories are healthcare, Social Security, and defense; income and payroll taxes are the primary revenue sources.
1065:
Discretionary spending is spending that is not mandated on a multi-year basis by existing legislation, and thus must be determined anew in each year's budget. Discretionary spending is used to fund the
784:
Note: CBO estimates that policy changes with a 0.6% of GDP annual impact are sufficient to address the 75-year program shortfall. Abbreviations are explained in the chart page. Source: CBO Report – July
418:
of GDP), non-defense discretionary spending used to run federal Departments and Agencies ($ 910B or 3.6% of GDP), Defense Department ($ 751B or 3.0% of GDP), and net interest ($ 475B or 1.9% of GDP).
673:
the absence of a balanced budget, the government will be required to convert these non-marketable securities to marketable securities by borrowing in the future, as trust fund claims are redeemed.
1614:
484:
Direct spending, also known as mandatory spending, refers to spending enacted by law, but not dependent on an annual or periodic appropriation bill. Most mandatory spending consists of
2101:
1947:
728:
Part D covers prescription drug benefits. Funding is included in the SMI trust fund and is financed through beneficiary premiums (about 25%) and general revenues (about 75%).
1559:
651:
cuts in discretionary programs, the federal government will at some point be unable to pay its obligations without significant risk to the value of the dollar (inflation).
818:." This surplus amount has not added to the public debt; rather it is the spending of surplus funds dedicated to the program for other purposes that has added to the debt.
733:
1639:
1082:
Section 8) grants the Congress the authority to "To raise and support armies, but no appropriation of money to that use shall be for a longer term than two years."
287:
204:
302:
165:
385:
297:
277:
1085:
1350:
1071:
510:
The share of Federal spending for mandatory programs has been increasing as the U.S. population ages, while the discretionary spending share has fallen.
236:
316:
466:
1866:
600:
462:
402:
consists of mandatory expenditures (which includes Medicare and Social Security), discretionary spending for defense, Cabinet departments (e.g.,
2168:
1664:
806:
continue around that level through the early 2080s. Claims that the program is "bankrupt" or "going bankrupt" can be evaluated in this context.
461:
Discretionary spending requires an annual appropriation bill, which is a piece of legislation. Discretionary spending is typically set by the
292:
282:
272:
1744:
1273:
2213:
2039:
1067:
209:
1454:
2105:
378:
1951:
754:
our families will not be able to save or spend; our budgets will remain unsustainable unless we get health care costs under control."
707:
The Medicare Trustees have reduced their forecast for Medicare costs as %GDP, mainly due to a lower rate of healthcare cost increases.
2063:
267:
182:
682:
411:
119:
1775:
1443:
647:, spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will rise from 8.7% of GDP in 2010, to 11.0% by 2020 and to 18.1% by 2050.
421:
Expenditures are classified as "mandatory", with payments required by specific laws to those meeting eligibility criteria (e.g.,
260:
94:
1687:
1466:
445:
2364:
1058:
863:
481:
for details). In particular, multi-year appropriations are often used for housing programs and military procurement programs.
338:
251:
246:
241:
199:
189:
2169:"Investing in the Building Blocks of American Innovation: Federal R&D, Technology, and STEM Education in the 2011 Budget"
1235:
371:
1995:
1675:
2126:
Office of the Secretary of Defense – Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2009 (PDF)
905:
871:
estimated the effects of solution alternatives during May 2010, including an estimated program deficit reduction for each:
579:
142:
99:
1643:
1105:
634:
other mandatory programs such as food stamps and unemployment compensation ($ 420B or 12%) and interest ($ 229B or 6.5%).
407:
403:
1497:
1093:
104:
437:
2316:
2275:
1588:
1415:
1405:
U.S. Congressional Budget Office, An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2010, June 2009.
703:
114:
2250:
1787:
1319:
2321:
2280:
1132:
1151:
1990s. It then began to rise steadily after 2000, then jumped in 2008 and 2009 due to the federal response to the
789:
767:
555:
489:
470:
422:
147:
229:
1089:
109:
772:
1510:
1003:
A pie chart showing global military expenditures by country for 2019, in US$ billions, according to SIPRI.
399:
89:
79:
47:
2127:
617:
legally entitled to benefits, although most pay taxes into these programs throughout their working lives.
1101:
835:
567:
504:
2343:
1855:
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities-Bowles-Simpson Social Security Proposal Evaluation-February 2011
1843:
843:
815:
194:
177:
64:
2175:
1870:
1718:
1973:
Urban Institute-Distributional Effects of Alternative Social Security Reforms-Details Matter-May 2010
518:
334:
780:
1972:
1751:
1280:
1152:
826:
in the mid-2030s. This is a funding challenge for the government overall, not just Social Security.
686:
604:
Historical and projected US Federal Government revenues and spending from 2018 GAO financial report
559:
493:
473:. Since the spending is typically for a fixed period (usually a year), it is said to be under the
426:
221:
137:
2230:"GAO FINANCIAL AUDIT Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2023 and FY 2022 Schedules of Federal Debt"
1924:
884:
Raising the payroll tax cap (currently at $ 106,800) to cover 90% instead of 84% of earnings: 35%
878:
Indexing the COLA to prices rather than wages, except for bottom one-third of income earners: 65%
644:
1251:
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities-The Right Target: Stabilize the Federal Debt January 2010
2210:
2026:
856:
776:
OASDI Income and Cost Rates Under Intermediate Assumptions. Source: 2009 OASDI Trustees Report.
35:
1541:
608:
1057:
Federal funding of science and technology research by year. The spike in 2009 is due to the
946:
592:
532:
357:
2078:
1361:
2369:
1891:
1261:
810:
2307:
2089:
2060:
596:
Table compares US federal spending and revenue in 2018 vs. 2017 using CBO historical data.
457:
The expenditures of the United States federal government as a percentage of GDP over time.
8:
2266:
485:
347:
2349:
1854:
1037:
999:
929:
Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information.
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are growing considerably faster than the economy overall as the population matures. The
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478:
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1935:
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1818:
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medical prices appear to be a more important cause of projected spending increases.
584:
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1984:
CBO – Raising the Ages of Eligibility for Social Security and Medicare-January 2012
536:
522:
215:
2199:
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2002:
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age increases the size of the workforce and the size of the economy by about 1%.
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342:
1193:
CBO – The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023 – February 2013
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1045:
954:
1104:. Slightly more than half of federal research and development funds go to the
958:
Total United States Defense Outlays 1962-2024, $ millions (2019-2024 estimated)
1377:
1078:
selected departments and agencies with over $ 10 billion in budget authority.
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1498:
Huffington Post-Lynn Parramore-Nine Deficit Myths We Cannot Afford-April 2010
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851:
540:
526:
172:
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is mainly funded through discretionary funding through agencies such as the
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estimated annual shortfall averages 1.9% of the payroll tax base or 0.7% of
758:
the Social Security unfunded obligation of $ 5.3 trillion, discussed below.
1913:
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FRED Database-Spending, Population, and Inflation Index Graph-October 2013
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Charlie Rose Show-Senators Bayh, Gregg and Roger Altman-February 1, 2010
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of the Congress. Some appropriations last for more than one year (see
2346:—A visualization of the Obama administration's FY2012 budget proposal.
1948:"U.S. News & World Report-12 Ways to Fix Social Security-May 2010"
1560:"Number of the Week: Half of U.S. Lives in Household Getting Benefits"
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Resourcing for Defeat, Center for Strategic and International Studies
1041:
Breakdown of discretionary outlays of US Federal Government for 2023.
352:
1844:
Congressional Budget Office-Social Security Policy Options-July 2010
2139:
1444:
The Heritage Foundation – Book of Charts – Retrieved March 18, 2010
1192:
690:
563:
497:
2350:
CBPP-Policy Basics-Where Do Our Federal Tax Dollars Go? April 2013
1455:
The Heritage Foundation – Book of Charts – Retrieve March 18, 2010
410:), and interest payments on debt. This is currently over half of
1996:"GAO-2009 Financial Statements of the U.S. Government – Page 45"
1936:
AARP Public Policy Institute-Reform Options for Social Security
1688:"Congressional Research Service – Medicare Primer – March 2009"
1665:
Sloan-Fortune-Social Security: The Next Great Bailout-July 2009
2040:"USA: A 21st Century Maritime Posture for an Uncertain Future"
1375:
1925:
Trustees Report Long Range Estimates – Section 5a Table IV.B6
1615:"Exactly How Many Americans Are Dependent on the Government?"
2140:"The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020"
1830:
2008 Social Security – Trustees Report Summary Press Release
1182:
CBO-The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018-2028-April 9, 2018
16:
Overview of expenditures in the United States federal budget
2163:
2161:
1097:
1819:
2010 Social Security Trustees Report Summary Press Release
1012:
Budgetary treatment of Iraq & Afghanistan war expenses
881:
Raising the payroll tax rate by one percentage point: 50%.
624:
Major categories of FY 2014 mandatory spending included:
2174:. Office of Science and Technology Policy. Archived from
631:
Healthcare such as Medicare and Medicaid ($ 831B or 24%),
414:, the remainder coming from state and local governments.
2158:
2027:
DoD News Release-Fiscal 2010 Budget Proposal-May 7, 2009
1867:"Heritage Foundation-Book of Charts-As of November 2010"
1719:
Atul Gawande-The New Yorker-The Cost Conundrum-June 2009
588:
Mandatory spending of the US Federal Government in 2023.
2152:
Anthony Cordesman and Erin Fitzgerald, September, 2009
1029:
Iraq and Afghanistan from the base defense operations.
432:
1222:
CBO-Budget and Economic Outlook 2017-2027-January 2015
1171:
The Federal Budget in Fiscal Year 2022: An Infographic
573:
1776:
President Obama – Weekly Radio Address – May 16 2009
525:
to (persons) as a percent of Federal revenue in the
1676:
Bruce Bartlett-Forbes-The 81% Tax Increase-May 2009
1511:"CNN Fact Check: Santorum misleads on 'dependence'"
1376:D. Andrew Austin; Mindy R. Levit (March 23, 2012).
1351:
Peter G. Peterson Foundation – Citizen's Guide 2010
1262:
CBO Long Term Budget Outlook – June and August 2010
1733:The Economist – As Boomers Wrinkle – December 2010
1049:FY 2013 Estimated Federal Spending per 2012 Budget
2038:Eaglen, Mackenzie; Eric Sayers (March 23, 2009).
2037:
978:
2356:
2344:The New York Times: Obama’s 2012 Budget Proposal
2131:
2061:DOD – Defense Trend Spending Chart - May 7, 2009
1728:
1726:
1586:
950:Defense Spending as % Outlays FY 1950–2007.
2222:
513:
1508:
1308:Social Security Trustees Report – 2009 Summary
1145:
875:Reducing the COLA by one percentage point: 75%
831:5.9% of GDP by 2030, where it will stabilize.
1723:
1217:
1215:
1213:
1211:
1204:CBO Historical Tables-Retrieved November 2015
1098:National Aeronautics and Space Administration
887:Increasing the full retirement age to 68: 30%
740:
699:Medicare and Medicaid Spending as % GDP.
379:
1612:
1086:Funding for science research and development
628:Social Security ($ 845B or 24% of spending),
1582:
1580:
963:incurred rather than actual cash payments.
1914:2009 OASDI Trustees Report – Page 9 and 19
1839:
1837:
1589:"Why the U.S. has a culture of dependency"
1303:
1301:
1208:
1140:
1108:and thus overlaps with military spending.
386:
372:
2302:
1903:2009 OASDI Trustees Report Pages 3 and 19
1557:
1371:
1369:
1032:
554:In the long-run, expenditures related to
1577:
1175:
1131:
1119:
1070:(e.g., the Department of Education) and
1052:
1044:
1036:
998:
953:
945:
779:
771:
702:
694:
683:Health care finance in the United States
676:
607:
599:
591:
583:
531:
517:
452:
20:
1892:CBO Long-Term Outlook-June 2010-Page 50
1834:
1587:Matthew Spalding (September 21, 2012).
1553:
1551:
1502:
1298:
1164:
2357:
2211:State of the Union Speech-January 2011
1606:
1366:
1059:American Reinvestment and Recovery Act
2264:
2200:The Constitution of the United States
1416:"A Closer Look at Mandatory Spending"
2031:
1548:
909:
906:Military budget of the United States
899:
580:Social programs in the United States
433:Discretionary vs. mandatory spending
408:Securities & Exchange Commission
2137:
2120:
1613:Brian Palmer (September 18, 2012).
1425:. Congressional Budget Office. 2012
1115:
574:Mandatory spending and entitlements
13:
1509:CNN Wire Staff (August 30, 2012).
761:
449:US Federal Government expenditures
444:
436:
14:
2381:
2317:Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
2276:Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
2258:
2079:CBO-Monthly Budget Review-Sept 09
2322:Library of Economics and Liberty
2281:Library of Economics and Liberty
1387:. Congressional Research Service
914:
467:Senate Appropriations Committees
63:
58:
2244:
2204:
2193:
2146:
2094:
2083:
2072:
2054:
2020:
1988:
1977:
1966:
1940:
1929:
1918:
1907:
1896:
1885:
1859:
1848:
1823:
1812:
1780:
1769:
1737:
1712:
1680:
1669:
1658:
1632:
1491:
1459:
1448:
1437:
1408:
1399:
1378:"Mandatory Spending Since 1962"
1355:
1344:
1312:
768:Social Security (United States)
612:Medicare & Social Security.
539:to (persons + business) in the
1266:
1255:
1244:
1226:
1197:
1186:
979:Debate about military spending
317:2023 Removal of Kevin McCarthy
1:
2365:United States federal budgets
1788:"GAO Fiscal Briefing Page 17"
1362:CBO Historical Data June 2017
1320:"GAO Briefing – January 2008"
1158:
1124:2023 Interest on federal debt
1090:National Institutes of Health
842:Since recommendations of the
441:US Federal Government Outlays
514:Growth of mandatory spending
400:United States federal budget
7:
2232:. November 2023. p. 18
2102:"Gates-A Balanced Strategy"
1274:"CBO Testimony – June 2008"
1146:Federal spending per capita
1102:National Science Foundation
568:Congressional Budget Office
505:Congressional Budget Office
10:
2386:
2066:February 28, 2010, at the
1558:Phil Izzo (May 23, 2012).
991:U.S. Secretary of Defense
903:
862:Various reforms have been
816:Social Security Trust Fund
765:
741:Growth in medical spending
680:
577:
230:2007–2008 financial crisis
2216:January 21, 2017, at the
2090:Barney Frank – The Nation
923:This section needs to be
261:2013 budget sequestration
166:Bowles–Simpson Commission
2042:. Defense Industry Daily
1153:subprime mortgage crisis
687:Medicare (United States)
412:U.S. government spending
222:Subprime mortgage crisis
51:United States of America
34:This article is part of
2265:Cogan, John F. (2002).
1141:Analytical perspectives
983:Democratic Congressman
645:The Heritage Foundation
2304:Kotlikoff, Laurence J.
1137:
1125:
1062:
1050:
1042:
1033:Discretionary spending
1004:
959:
951:
857:gross domestic product
786:
777:
708:
700:
670:
613:
605:
597:
589:
543:
529:
458:
450:
442:
406:) and agencies (e.g.,
210:Social Security debate
49:Budget and debt in the
26:
1238:July 8, 2011, at the
1135:
1123:
1106:Department of Defense
1056:
1048:
1040:
1002:
957:
949:
783:
775:
706:
698:
677:Medicare and Medicaid
665:
611:
603:
595:
587:
578:Further information:
535:
521:
456:
448:
440:
358:Continuing resolution
24:
2138:CBO (January 2010).
2108:on December 19, 2008
1873:on February 20, 2011
1467:"GAO Citizens Guide"
1094:Department of Energy
844:Greenspan Commission
811:Greenspan Commission
486:entitlement programs
268:Government shutdowns
2181:on October 25, 2010
2008:on February 2, 2011
1757:on December 3, 2011
1564:Wall Street Journal
1286:on December 3, 2011
1112:the Union address.
1096:Office of Science,
1068:Cabinet Departments
721:approximately 75%).
348:Balance of payments
237:Debt-ceiling crises
160:Contemporary issues
2312:David R. Henderson
2271:David R. Henderson
1540:has generic name (
1138:
1126:
1063:
1051:
1043:
1005:
960:
952:
787:
778:
709:
701:
614:
606:
598:
590:
544:
530:
479:Appropriation bill
469:and their various
459:
451:
443:
404:Justice Department
95:Financial position
27:
2308:"Federal Deficit"
1700:on August 7, 2011
1479:on August 5, 2011
944:
943:
900:Military spending
734:reform strategies
537:Transfer payments
523:Transfer payments
396:
395:
205:Political debates
200:Healthcare reform
190:Deficit reduction
2377:
2325:
2320:(1st ed.).
2284:
2279:(1st ed.).
2267:"Federal Budget"
2253:
2248:
2242:
2241:
2239:
2237:
2226:
2220:
2208:
2202:
2197:
2191:
2190:
2188:
2186:
2180:
2173:
2165:
2156:
2150:
2144:
2143:
2135:
2129:
2124:
2118:
2117:
2115:
2113:
2104:. Archived from
2098:
2092:
2087:
2081:
2076:
2070:
2058:
2052:
2051:
2049:
2047:
2035:
2029:
2024:
2018:
2017:
2015:
2013:
2007:
2001:. Archived from
2000:
1992:
1986:
1981:
1975:
1970:
1964:
1963:
1961:
1959:
1954:on June 21, 2010
1950:. Archived from
1944:
1938:
1933:
1927:
1922:
1916:
1911:
1905:
1900:
1894:
1889:
1883:
1882:
1880:
1878:
1869:. Archived from
1863:
1857:
1852:
1846:
1841:
1832:
1827:
1821:
1816:
1810:
1809:
1807:
1805:
1800:on March 3, 2016
1799:
1793:. Archived from
1792:
1784:
1778:
1773:
1767:
1766:
1764:
1762:
1756:
1750:. Archived from
1749:
1741:
1735:
1730:
1721:
1716:
1710:
1709:
1707:
1705:
1699:
1693:. Archived from
1692:
1684:
1678:
1673:
1667:
1662:
1656:
1655:
1653:
1651:
1642:. Archived from
1640:"Concord Slides"
1636:
1630:
1629:
1627:
1625:
1610:
1604:
1603:
1601:
1599:
1584:
1575:
1574:
1572:
1570:
1555:
1546:
1545:
1539:
1535:
1533:
1525:
1523:
1521:
1506:
1500:
1495:
1489:
1488:
1486:
1484:
1478:
1472:. Archived from
1471:
1463:
1457:
1452:
1446:
1441:
1435:
1434:
1432:
1430:
1420:
1412:
1406:
1403:
1397:
1396:
1394:
1392:
1382:
1373:
1364:
1359:
1353:
1348:
1342:
1341:
1339:
1337:
1332:on March 3, 2016
1331:
1325:. Archived from
1324:
1316:
1310:
1305:
1296:
1295:
1293:
1291:
1285:
1279:. Archived from
1278:
1270:
1264:
1259:
1253:
1248:
1242:
1230:
1224:
1219:
1206:
1201:
1195:
1190:
1184:
1179:
1173:
1168:
1116:Interest expense
939:
936:
930:
918:
917:
910:
794:social insurance
388:
381:
374:
278:1981, 1984, 1986
216:Starve the beast
74:Major dimensions
67:
62:
52:
41:
38:
29:
28:
2385:
2384:
2380:
2379:
2378:
2376:
2375:
2374:
2355:
2354:
2261:
2256:
2249:
2245:
2235:
2233:
2228:
2227:
2223:
2218:Wayback Machine
2209:
2205:
2198:
2194:
2184:
2182:
2178:
2171:
2167:
2166:
2159:
2151:
2147:
2136:
2132:
2125:
2121:
2111:
2109:
2100:
2099:
2095:
2088:
2084:
2077:
2073:
2068:Wayback Machine
2059:
2055:
2045:
2043:
2036:
2032:
2025:
2021:
2011:
2009:
2005:
1998:
1994:
1993:
1989:
1982:
1978:
1971:
1967:
1957:
1955:
1946:
1945:
1941:
1934:
1930:
1923:
1919:
1912:
1908:
1901:
1897:
1890:
1886:
1876:
1874:
1865:
1864:
1860:
1853:
1849:
1842:
1835:
1828:
1824:
1817:
1813:
1803:
1801:
1797:
1790:
1786:
1785:
1781:
1774:
1770:
1760:
1758:
1754:
1747:
1745:"CBO Testimony"
1743:
1742:
1738:
1731:
1724:
1717:
1713:
1703:
1701:
1697:
1690:
1686:
1685:
1681:
1674:
1670:
1663:
1659:
1649:
1647:
1646:on May 24, 2011
1638:
1637:
1633:
1623:
1621:
1611:
1607:
1597:
1595:
1585:
1578:
1568:
1566:
1556:
1549:
1537:
1536:
1527:
1526:
1519:
1517:
1507:
1503:
1496:
1492:
1482:
1480:
1476:
1469:
1465:
1464:
1460:
1453:
1449:
1442:
1438:
1428:
1426:
1418:
1414:
1413:
1409:
1404:
1400:
1390:
1388:
1380:
1374:
1367:
1360:
1356:
1349:
1345:
1335:
1333:
1329:
1322:
1318:
1317:
1313:
1306:
1299:
1289:
1287:
1283:
1276:
1272:
1271:
1267:
1260:
1256:
1249:
1245:
1240:Wayback Machine
1231:
1227:
1220:
1209:
1202:
1198:
1191:
1187:
1180:
1176:
1169:
1165:
1161:
1148:
1143:
1118:
1035:
1014:
981:
940:
934:
931:
928:
919:
915:
908:
902:
869:Urban Institute
790:Social Security
770:
764:
762:Social Security
743:
693:
681:Main articles:
679:
582:
576:
556:Social Security
516:
490:Social Security
435:
423:Social Security
392:
363:
362:
331:
323:
322:
321:
311:Related events
309:
258:
227:
226:
161:
153:
152:
148:Social Security
143:Social programs
133:
125:
124:
100:Military budget
75:
50:
48:
36:
33:
17:
12:
11:
5:
2383:
2373:
2372:
2367:
2353:
2352:
2347:
2341:
2300:
2260:
2259:External links
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1008:after the US.
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904:Main article:
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1531:
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852:present value
848:
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824:
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812:
808:
804:
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802:
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333:Cumulative
330:Terminology
105:Public debt
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1429:October 3,
1159:References
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809:Since the
492:benefits,
475:discretion
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1072:Agencies
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717:workers.
691:Medicaid
564:Medicaid
560:Medicare
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488:such as
427:Medicare
339:Interest
298:Jan 2018
138:Medicare
132:Programs
110:Taxation
37:a series
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1423:cbo.gov
1385:fas.org
925:updated
864:debated
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183:history
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