100:
215:
261:. Or, as current trends suggest, the limiting factors might involve ecosystems’ ability to absorb human pollution, as with climate change, ocean acidification, or the toxification of rivers and streams. The applicability of carrying capacity as a measurement of the Earth's limits in terms of the human population has been questioned, since it has proved difficult to calculate or predict the upper limits of population growth. Carrying capacity has been used as a tool in
2157:
91:
147:, which can be more rapidly achieved with a focus on technological and social innovations, along with reducing consumption rates, while treating population planning as a long term goal. The study says that with a fertility-reduction model of one-child per female by 2100, it would take at least 140 years to reduce the population to 2 billion people by 2153. The 2022 "Scientists' warning on population," published by
2145:
117:
with lower and upper meta-bounds at 0.65 and 9.8 billion people, respectively. They conclude: "recent predictions of stabilized world population levels for 2050 exceed several of our meta-estimates of a world population limit". A 2012 United
Nations report summarized 65 different estimates of maximum sustainable population size and the most common estimate was 8 billion.
330:, has argued in 1971 that the carrying capacity of Earth — that is, Earth's capacity to sustain human populations and consumption levels — is bound to decrease sometime in the future as Earth's finite stock of mineral resources is presently being extracted and put to use. Leading ecological economist and
575:
Global warming of 1.5°C : an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to
299:
have criticized this for numerous reasons. Aside from the fact that humans are able to adopt new customs and technology, some common critiques are 1.) an assumption an equilibrium population exists, 2.) difficulties in measuring resources, 3.) inability to account for human tastes and how much labour
160:
But if current human numbers are not ecologically sustainable, the costs are likely to fall on the world’s poorest citizens, regardless of whether they helped cause the problem. In fact, countries that contribute the most to unsustainable production and consumption practices often have higher income
62:
Emerging economies like those of China and India aspire to the living standards of the
Western world, as does the non-industrialized world in general. As of 2022, China and India account for most of the population in Asia, with more than 1.4 billion each. It is the combination of population increase
133:
stated in 2018 that the optimum population is between 1.5 and 2 billion. Geographer Chris Tucker estimates that 3 billion is a sustainable number, provided human societies rapidly deploy less harmful technologies and best management practices. Other estimates of a sustainable global population also
116:
Many studies have tried to estimate the world's sustainable population for humans, that is, the maximum population the world can host. A 2004 meta-analysis of 69 such studies from 1694 until 2001 found the average predicted maximum number of people the Earth would ever have was 7.7 billion people,
201:
is expected to undergo only slight increase from 1.23 billion to 1.28 billion, and this would have declined to 1.15 billion but for a projected net migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.4 million persons annually from 2009 to 2050. Long-term estimates in
205:
However, these projections assume substantial improvements in contraceptive availability throughout the developing world and large decreases in desired family size (particularly in sub-Saharan Africa), which may or may not happen. In the end, all population projections must be taken with a large
156:
Skeptics criticize the basic assumptions associated with these overpopulation estimates. For example, Jade Sasser believes that calculating a maximum of number of humanity which may be allowed to live while only some, mostly privileged
European former colonial powers, are mostly responsible for
196:
whose population is projected to rise from 5.6 billion in 2009 to 7.9 billion in 2050. This increase will be distributed among the population aged 15–59 (1.2 billion) and 60 or over (1.1 billion) because the number of children under age 15 in developing countries is predicted to decrease. In
153:, states that "environmental analysts regard a sustainable human population as one enjoying a modest, equitable middle-class standard of living on a planet retaining its biodiversity and with climate-related adversities minimized," which is estimated at between 2 and 4 billion people.
345:. In a series of writings, Daly has explored the connection between limiting population and achieving ecologically sustainable societies, arguing that a sustainable economy must involve limits to human numbers, since per capita human resource use can never be driven down to zero.
1103:
284:, has been criticized for not successfully being able to model the processes between humans and the environment. In popular discourse the concept is often used vaguely in the sense of a "balance between nature and human populations".
94:
World population growth rate, 1950–2050, as estimated in 2011 by the U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base. Although the rate of growth decreases, population continues to rise. In 2050 still growing by over 45 million per
128:
that human societies depend on. Because these environmental impacts are all directly related to human numbers, recent estimates of a sustainable human population tend to put forward much lower numbers, between 2 and 4 billion.
30:
or a particular region of Earth, such as a nation or continent. Estimates vary widely, with estimates based on different figures ranging from 0.65 billion people to 9.8 billion, with 8 billion people being a typical estimate.
858:
139:
1452:
Zhang, Yingying; Wei, Yigang; Zhang, Jian (2021). "Overpopulation and urban sustainable development—population carrying capacity in
Shanghai based on probability-satisfaction evaluation method".
192:
is projected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, up from the current 8 billion, to exceed 9 billion people by 2050, and to reach 11.2 billion by the year 2100. Most of the increase will be in
315:
143:
posits that, given the "inexorable demographic momentum of the global human population," efforts to slow population growth in the short term will have little impact on
2049:
291:
a popular definition from 1949 states "the maximum number of people that a given land area will maintain in perpetuity under a given system of usage without
719:
397:
176:. The study says that falling fertility rates are linked to access to contraception and family planning services, and has little to no relation to
265:
arguments to limit population growth since the 1950s. The concept of carrying capacity has been applied to determining the population limits in
1644:
1088:
1006:
331:
304:
homogeneity, 6.) assumption that regions are isolated from each other, 7.) contradicted by history, and 8.) the standard of living is ignored.
2074:
206:
pinch of salt. Particular care is needed to remember that future population size will depend on policy decisions and individual choices.
202:
2004 of global population suggest a peak at around 2070 of nine to ten billion people, and then a slow decrease to 8.4 billion by 2100.
1987:
1161:
1130:"Achieving sustainable population: Fertility decline in many developing countries follows modern contraception, not economic growth"
63:
in the developing world and unsustainable consumption levels in the developed world that poses a stark challenge to sustainability.
2019:
1710:
602:
Climate change 2022 : Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Sixth
Assessment Report
431:
1186:
773:
161:
per capita and slower population growth, unlike countries that have a low income per capita and rapidly growing populations.
1611:
1064:
1029:
982:
702:
1677:
342:
2079:
1239:
525:
43:
have led to some to advocate for what they consider a sustainable population. Proposed policy solutions vary, including
2149:
1586:
1553:
1501:
922:
1971:
1207:
746:
549:
418:
1725:
930:
149:
32:
2120:
2054:
40:
1360:
1343:
491:
474:
2069:
120:
Climate change, excess nutrient loading (particularly nitrogen and phosphorus), increased ocean acidity, rapid
67:
2186:
1502:"Carrying Capacity's New Guise: Folk Models for Public Debate and Longitudinal Study of Environmental Change"
1395:
Ripple WJ, Wolf C, Newsome TM, Barnard P, Moomaw WR. 2020. World scientists’ warning of a climate emergency.
513:
2094:
2084:
1997:
1903:
1966:
541:
Ecosystems and human well-being : synthesis : a report of the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
323:
1304:
2181:
1876:
1700:
311:
258:
78:
have been strongly correlated, and the world's poorest countries also have the highest fertility and
56:
124:, and other global trends suggest humanity is causing global ecological degradation and threatening
1881:
1670:
2191:
1823:
254:
44:
684:
1992:
1950:
1828:
1705:
1305:"Carrying capacity reconsidered: from Malthus' population theory to cultural carrying capacity"
364:
250:
2059:
1923:
1762:
975:
On infertile ground : population control and women's rights in the era of climate change
761:
2089:
2044:
2012:
2007:
1933:
1908:
1864:
867:
359:
327:
104:
71:
8:
2160:
1938:
1769:
1720:
1663:
1104:"UN DESA Policy Brief No. 130: Why population growth matters for sustainable development"
1573:
871:
830:
384:
2064:
2002:
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1779:
1757:
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1521:
1477:
1434:
1426:
1082:
1000:
955:
890:
853:
811:
652:
439:
246:
193:
1320:
1259:"Policy-based Population Projections for the European Union: A Complementary Approach"
1185:
United
Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2009).
99:
2039:
1913:
1806:
1715:
1607:
1582:
1549:
1525:
1481:
1469:
1365:
1324:
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1203:
1070:
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1035:
1025:
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947:
914:
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605:
579:
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354:
307:
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125:
121:
79:
1438:
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2110:
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1513:
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1418:
1355:
1316:
1270:
1141:
939:
885:
875:
799:
795:
690:
636:
486:
409:
Cohen, J.E. (2006). "Human
Population: The Next Half Century." In Kennedy D. (Ed.)
338:
292:
277:
242:
238:
189:
48:
27:
2125:
1886:
1344:"Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction"
918:
475:"Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction"
281:
177:
130:
52:
36:
1540:
2130:
1465:
859:
Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
624:
300:
they will expend, 4.) assumption of full usage of resources, 5.) assumption of
144:
140:
Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
1422:
1409:
Sayre, N. F. (2008). "The Genesis, History, and Limits of Carrying Capacity".
1074:
992:
640:
609:
583:
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1869:
1818:
1473:
1369:
1328:
1284:
1039:
807:
786:
Rees, William E. (2020). "Ecological economics for humanity's plague phase".
720:"Paul Ehrlich: 'Collapse of civilisation is a near certainty within decades'"
648:
559:
500:
288:
262:
173:
880:
1918:
1054:
951:
899:
724:
270:
218:
214:
169:
1275:
1258:
854:"Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems"
1801:
1569:
1517:
334:
296:
23:
1430:
134:
come in at considerably less than the current population of 8 billion.
1686:
694:
1856:
572:
539:
319:
301:
1384:
The millennium ecosystem assessment: Ecosystems and human well-being
1146:
1129:
686:
Time and the Generations: Population Ethics for a Diminishing Planet
1928:
1851:
1812:
1221:"World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations"
266:
1606:(2. ed., with new essays ed.). Washington, DC: Island Press.
514:
One Planet, How Many People? A Review of Earth’s Carrying Capacity
1628:
Ecological economics, second edition: Principles and applications
1575:
Economics, Ecology, Ethics. Essays Towards a Steady-State Economy
1220:
222:
90:
75:
1833:
1655:
276:
The application of the concept of carrying capacity for the
1361:
10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[0195:rtltwp]2.0.co;2
774:
What is the optimal, sustainable population size of Humans?
492:
10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[0195:RTLTWP]2.0.CO;2
168:, a sustainable population is required for both preserving
776:
overpopulation-project.com, PatrĂcia DĂ©rer, April 25, 2018
1581:(2nd ed.). San Francisco: W.H. Freeman and Company.
831:"Population controls 'will not solve environment issues'"
1579:(PDF contains only the introductory chapter of the book)
466:
1342:
VAN DEN BERGH, JEROEN C. J. M.; RIETVELD, PIET (2004).
762:
Current Population is Three Times the Sustainable Level
473:
Van Den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.; Rietveld, Piet (2004).
245:
might include water availability, energy availability,
2050:
International Conference on Population and Development
1548:. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press.
1200:
The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century
912:
1341:
472:
1240:"World population is growing faster than we thought"
1198:Lutz W., Sanderson W.C., & Scherbov S. (2004).
1101:
538:(Program), Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005).
623:Lianos, Theodore P.; Pseiridis, Anastasia (2015).
1411:Annals of the Association of American Geographers
625:"Sustainable welfare and optimum population size"
2173:
1538:
1402:
1127:
1102:Wilmoth, John; Menozzi, Clare; Bassarsky, Lina.
438:. United Nations Population Fund. Archived from
1162:"The World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision"
852:Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Brook, Barry W. (2014).
622:
921:; Rees, William E.; Wolf, Christopher (2022).
526:How Many People Can Our Planet Really Support?
16:Proposed sustainable human population of Earth
1671:
1451:
851:
463:W.W. Norton & Company, New York, NY, USA.
411:Science Magazine's State of the Planet 2006-7
1302:
1022:One child : do we have a right to more?
972:
157:unsustainably using up the Earth, is wrong.
2075:United Nations world population conferences
1495:
1493:
1491:
1454:Environment, Development and Sustainability
1303:Seidl, Irmi; Tisdell, Clem A (1999-12-01).
1256:
629:Environment, Development and Sustainability
573:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
432:"Are fewer children a route to prosperity?"
1988:Population and housing censuses by country
1678:
1664:
1237:
1087:: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (
1005:: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (
717:
673:. Washington, DC: Atlas Observatory Press.
1359:
1274:
1145:
1128:Götmark, Frank; Andersson, Malte (2022).
889:
879:
537:
490:
436:FACT SHEET: Population Growth and Poverty
111:
1711:Estimates of historical world population
1542:The Entropy Law and the Economic Process
1499:
1488:
1257:Cafaro, Philip; DĂ©rer, PatrĂcia (2019).
682:
403:
241:. The potential limiting factor for the
213:
98:
89:
1189:Highlights. Retrieved on: 6 April 2009.
1095:
828:
164:According to a 2022 study published in
2174:
1645:"Reframing China's Population Decline"
1298:
1296:
1294:
748:A PLANET OF 3 BILLION | Kirkus Reviews
461:How many people can the earth support?
1659:
1408:
1052:
1019:
718:Carrington, Damian (March 22, 2018).
595:
593:
197:contrast, the population of the more
2144:
1601:
1568:
785:
599:
209:
103:Map of countries and territories by
2080:Voluntary Human Extinction Movement
1626:Daly, H., & Farley, J. (2011).
1539:Georgescu-Roegen, Nicholas (1971).
1291:
1056:Should we control world population?
923:"Scientists' warning on population"
413:. London: Island Press, pp. 13–21.
233:overshooting the limits of Earth's
183:
13:
829:McGrath, Matt (October 27, 2014).
590:
528:BBC, Vivien Cumming, 14 March 2016
41:human pressures on the environment
14:
2203:
1972:Population and Development Review
1637:
973:Sasser, Jade (13 November 2018).
188:According to data from 2015, the
2156:
2155:
2143:
2020:Population concern organizations
1726:Projections of population growth
1546:(Full book accessible at Scribd)
931:Science of the Total Environment
385:Booming nations 'threaten Earth'
150:Science of the Total Environment
33:Projections of population growth
2121:Human impact on the environment
2055:Population Action International
1630:. Washington, DC: Island Press.
1620:
1595:
1562:
1532:
1445:
1389:
1386:. Washington, DC: Island Press.
1376:
1335:
1250:
1231:
1213:
1192:
1179:
1154:
1121:
1046:
1013:
966:
944:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157166
906:
845:
822:
779:
767:
755:
739:
711:
676:
663:
616:
566:
398:World Population Prospects 2022
2070:United Nations Population Fund
1685:
1263:Comparative Population Studies
800:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106519
531:
519:
507:
453:
424:
390:
377:
137:A 2014 study published in the
1:
1321:10.1016/S0921-8009(99)00063-4
689:. Columbia University Press.
387:." BBC News. 12 January 2006.
370:
1382:Reid, W. V., et al. (2005).
343:propounded the same argument
85:
7:
2095:World Population Foundation
2085:World Population Conference
1998:World population milestones
1024:. Oxford University Press.
348:
257:, or land availability for
225:, Washington, United States
10:
2208:
1967:Population and Environment
1466:10.1007/s10668-020-00720-2
1244:The Overpopulation Project
764:worldpopulationbalance.org
269:, a city faced with rapid
2139:
2103:
2028:
1980:
1959:
1877:Human population planning
1842:
1788:
1739:
1701:Demographics of the world
1693:
1423:10.1080/00045600701734356
1238:O’Sullivan, Jane (2022).
683:Dasgupta, Partha (2019).
641:10.1007/s10668-015-9711-5
516:United Nations, June 2012
312:Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen
237:for humans is popular in
57:human population planning
1882:Compulsory sterilization
1602:Daly, Herman E. (1991).
1053:Coole, Diana H. (2018).
1824:Malthusian growth model
1500:Cliggett, Lisa (2001).
1134:Sustainable Development
881:10.1073/pnas.1410465111
255:photosynthetic capacity
251:non-renewable resources
166:Sustainable Development
45:sustainable development
1951:Zero population growth
1946:Sustainable population
1870:Malthusian catastrophe
1829:Overshoot (population)
1706:Demographic transition
1604:Steady-state economics
365:Overshoot (population)
226:
112:Sustainable population
108:
96:
20:Sustainable population
2060:Population Connection
1924:Mere addition paradox
1763:Physiological density
1276:10.12765/cpos-2019-14
1020:Sarah, Conly (2016).
671:A Planet of 3 Billion
332:steady-state theorist
229:Talk of economic and
217:
102:
93:
22:refers to a proposed
2187:Human overpopulation
2090:World Population Day
2045:Church of Euthanasia
1934:Non-identity problem
1909:Political demography
1865:Human overpopulation
1518:10.1353/at.2001.0003
1309:Ecological Economics
788:Ecological Economics
459:Cohen, J.E. (1995).
360:Human overpopulation
328:ecological economics
280:, which exists in a
194:developing countries
1939:Reproductive rights
1770:Population dynamics
1721:Population momentum
1202:London: Earthscan.
872:2014PNAS..11116610B
866:(46): 16610–16615.
669:Tucker, C. (2019).
442:on 21 February 2011
400:." UN. 19 Oct 2022.
247:renewable resources
28:population of Earth
2065:Population Matters
1780:Population pyramid
1758:Population density
1753:Population decline
1651:. Earth Overshoot.
915:Ripple, William J.
227:
126:ecosystem services
109:
97:
68:UN Population Fund
2169:
2168:
2040:7 Billion Actions
1914:Population ethics
1807:Carrying capacity
1716:Population growth
1613:978-1-55963-071-9
1225:population.un.org
1066:978-1-5095-2340-5
1059:. Cambridge, UK.
1031:978-0-19-020343-6
984:978-1-4798-7343-2
704:978-0-231-55003-1
695:10.7312/dasg16012
576:eradicate poverty
355:Population growth
308:Romanian American
235:carrying capacity
231:population growth
210:Carrying capacity
199:developed regions
122:biodiversity loss
80:population growth
66:According to the
35:, evaluations of
2199:
2182:World population
2159:
2158:
2147:
2146:
2116:Green Revolution
1897:Two-child policy
1892:One-child policy
1815:
1775:Population model
1731:World population
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1656:
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1631:
1624:
1618:
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1559:
1547:
1536:
1530:
1529:
1497:
1486:
1485:
1460:(3): 3318–3337.
1449:
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1380:
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1177:
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1140:(3): 1606–1617.
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1050:
1044:
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927:
919:Ehrlich, Paul R.
910:
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635:(6): 1679–1699.
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339:Georgescu-Roegen
324:paradigm founder
293:land degradation
278:human population
253:, heat removal,
243:human population
239:environmentalism
190:world population
184:World population
49:female education
2207:
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2024:
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1904:Overconsumption
1887:Family planning
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1811:
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1570:Daly, Herman E.
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1147:10.1002/sd.2470
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913:Crist, Eileen;
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