290:
212:
Counterfactual history distinguishes itself through its interest in the very incident that is being negated by the counterfactual, thus seeking to evaluate the event's relative historical importance. Historians produce arguments subsequent changes in history, outlining each in broad terms only, since
115:
applied quantitative methods to imagine the U.S. economy of 1890 had there been no railroads. That in the absence of the railroad in the U.S., the great system of canals would have been expanded and the roads would have been paved and improved into a reliable transport system; both improvements would
227:
The line is sometimes blurred as historians may invent more detailed timelines as illustrations of their ideas about the types of changes that might have occurred. But it is usually clear what general types of consequences the author thinks are reasonable to suppose would have been likely to occur,
156:
Some scholars argue that a counterfactual is not as much a matter of what happened in the past but it is the disagreement about which past events were most significant. For example, William
Thompson employs a sequence of counterfactuals for eight lead economies that have driven
254:
in history contain implicit counterfactual claims—for example, the claim that a certain military decision helped a country win a war presumes that if that decision had not been made, the war would have been less likely to be won, or would have been longer.
216:
An alternate history writer, on the other hand, is interested precisely in the hypothetical scenarios that flow from the negated incident or event. A fiction writer is thus free to invent very specific events and characters in the imagined history.
249:
Most historians regard counterfactual history as perhaps entertaining, but not meeting the standards of mainstream historical research due to its speculative nature. Advocates of counterfactual history often respond that all statements about
116:
have diminished the social and economic importance of the railroad, because “the level of per capita income achieved by
January 1, 1890 would have been reached by March 31, 1890, if railroads had never been invented.”
903:
258:
Since counterfactual history is such a recent development, a serious, systematic critique of its uses and methodologies has yet to be made, as the movement itself is still working out those methods and frameworks.
62:. Counterfactual history seeks by "conjecturing on what did not happen, or what might have happened, in order to understand what did happen." It has produced a literary genre which is variously called
707:
145:, and to put forward a case for the importance of contingency in history, theorizing that a few key changes could result in a significantly different modern world. A series of
435:
193:, and claims that each actor in succession played an unusually critical role in creating a structure of leadership that became increasingly global in scope across time.
153:
presented dozens of essays by historians or prominent writers about "how a slight turn of fate at a decisive moment could have changed the very annals of time."
100:—fictional reinterpretations of historical events—because the narrative tone tends to whimsy, and offers neither historical analysis nor the logic behind such
542:"Project 2001: Significant Works in Twentieth-Century Economic History Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric History [Review]"
717:
241:
has a character talking of historians' use of counterfactuals, within the novel's alternate history. He dismisses this as "a useless exercise".
1027:
512:
1021:
137:. Ferguson has become a significant advocate of counterfactual history, using counterfactual scenarios to illustrate his objections to
622:
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Aviezer Tucker has offered a range of criticism of this approach to the study of the past both in his review of
Ferguson's
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119:
Few further attempts to bring counterfactual history into the world of academia were made until the 1991 publication of
863:
841:
412:
224:
did not happen?"; whereas an alternate history writer would focus on a possible series of events arising therefrom.
959:
Counterfactual
Thought Experiments in World Politics : Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
516:
20:
133:(1997), a collection of essays exploring different scenarios by a number of historians, edited by the historian
1036:
351:
596:"The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics (From Sung China to the United States): Selected Counterfactuals"
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1024:(archived link)—Academic discussion of counterfactuals in history, and suggested ground rules for their use
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What If? : The World's
Foremost Military Historians Imagine What Might Have Been : Essays
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473:
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712:
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and what specific details are included in an imagined timeline only for illustrative purposes.
202:
138:
825:
833:
646:
Tucker, Aviezer (May 1999). "Historiographical
Counterfactuals and Historical Contingency".
129:, who carefully explored three different counterfactual scenarios. This work helped inspire
800:
632:
398:
232:
89:
8:
1042:
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67:
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Plausible Worlds : Possibility and
Understanding in History and the Social Sciences
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What If? 2, subtitled More What If?: Eminent
Historians Imagine What Might Have Been
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Plausible Worlds: Possibility and
Understanding in History and the Social Sciences
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27:
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623:"Kim Stanley Robinson: The Years of Rice and Salt – an infinity plus review"
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112:
54:
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182:
993:
Unmaking the West : "What-If?" Scenarios That
Rewrite World History
738:
Revisioning the Civil War : Historians on Counter-Factual Scenarios
84:(1931) which features "If Lee Had Not Won the Battle at Gettysburg", by
251:
213:
the main focus is on the importance and impact of the negated event.
109:
Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric History
92:(1863). As a text of counterfactual histories written by historians,
364:
178:
315:
142:
830:
A Past of Possibilities : A History of What Could Have Been
708:"Altered Pasts: Counterfactuals in History, by Richard J. Evans"
220:
An example of a counterfactual question would be: "What if the
170:
1022:
Counterfactual Thought Experiments: A Necessary Research Tool
929:
The Confederate States of America : What Might Have Been
469:"'What If?' and Beyond: Counterfactual History in Literature"
174:
166:
678:
Our Knowledge of the Past: A Philosophy of Historiography
268:
Our Knowledge of the Past: A Philosophy of Historiography
878:
Virtual History : Alternatives and Counterfactuals
823:
196:
285:
979:
832:. Translated by Sawyer, Stephen W. New Haven, CT:
231:The line is further blurred by novelists such as
131:Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals
1049:
856:Altered Pasts : Counterfactuals in History
88:, about a fictional Confederate victory at the
16:Study of historical events that never happened
949:
513:"If Lee Had Not Won the Battle of Gettysburg"
436:"Making books: The 'What Ifs' that fascinate"
393:
387:
78:An early book of counterfactual histories is
161:processes for almost a thousand years. From
858:. Waltham, MA: Brandeis University Press.
734:
70:, allohistory, and hypothetical history.
898:
872:
593:
532:
530:
426:
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347:"Counterfactual History: A User's Guide"
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1028:Counterfactual History: A User's Guide
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264:Virtual History in History and Theory
565:Smoler, Frederic (September 1999).
13:
727:
621:Brooke, Keith (16 February 2002).
201:Counterfactual history is neither
197:Differences from alternate history
14:
1089:
1043:The Counterfactual History Review
1015:
735:Bresnahan, James C., ed. (2006).
594:Thompson, William R. (May 2010).
139:deterministic theories of history
600:Journal of Globalization Studies
467:Singles, Kathleen (2011-06-01).
288:
235:, whose alternate-history novel
699:
668:
639:
21:Counterfactual (disambiguation)
1037:The American Historical Review
706:Shook, Karen (27 March 2014).
614:
587:
558:
501:
397:; MacRaild, Donald M. (2007).
352:The American Historical Review
335:
73:
1:
329:
125:by the Cambridge sociologist
997:University of Michigan Press
547:Economic History Association
244:
94:If It Had Happened Otherwise
81:If It Had Happened Otherwise
52:that attempts to answer the
7:
281:
10:
1094:
963:Princeton University Press
931:(1st ed.). New York:
910:Cambridge University Press
683:Cambridge University Press
238:The Years of Rice and Salt
58:questions that arise from
25:
18:
933:W.W. Norton & Company
927:Ransom, Roger L. (2005).
60:counterfactual conditions
675:Tucker, Aviezer (2004).
26:Not to be confused with
743:McFarland & Company
662:10.1111/0018-2656.00090
474:The Cambridge Quarterly
713:Times Higher Education
487:10.1093/camqtly/bfr007
310:Stalin's Missed Chance
203:historical revisionism
42:Counterfactual history
834:Yale University Press
434:(December 21, 2000).
1030:(archived link), by
826:Singaravélou, Pierre
824:Deluermoz, Quentin;
720:on 27 February 2022.
554:on 28 February 2006.
517:The Churchill Centre
233:Kim Stanley Robinson
90:Battle of Gettysburg
19:For other uses, see
1078:Thought experiments
1073:Theories of history
610:on 28 October 2021.
606:(1). Archived from
579:(5). Archived from
523:on January 5, 2009.
222:Pearl Harbor attack
98:alternative history
68:speculative history
981:Tetlock, Philip E.
951:Tetlock, Philip E.
900:Hawthorn, Geoffrey
649:History and Theory
509:Churchill, Winston
441:The New York Times
405:Palgrave Macmillan
96:contains works of
36:Historical fiction
1063:Fields of history
1058:Alternate history
1006:978-0-472-11543-3
995:. Ann Arbor, MI:
985:Lebow, Richard N.
972:978-0-691-02792-0
961:. Princeton, NJ:
942:978-0-393-05967-0
919:978-0-521-40359-7
891:978-0-330-35132-4
852:Evans, Richard J.
816:978-0-425-18613-8
788:978-0-425-17642-9
752:978-0-7864-2392-7
741:. Jefferson, NC:
692:978-0-521-83415-5
572:American Heritage
207:alternate history
127:Geoffrey Hawthorn
86:Winston Churchill
64:alternate history
32:Alternate history
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989:Parker, Geoffrey
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716:. Archived from
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403:(3rd ed.).
400:Studying History
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272:Richard J. Evans
266:and in his book
149:books edited by
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728:Further reading
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540:(1 July 2000).
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46:virtual history
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799:, ed. (2001).
797:Cowley, Robert
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656:(2): 264–276.
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481:(2): 180–188.
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330:References
189:, and the
147:"What If?"
495:0008-199X
373:0002-8762
270:, as has
252:causality
245:Criticism
902:(1991).
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324:(essays)
322:What If?
282:See also
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141:such as
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