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European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

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366: 1643: 2455: 293: 259: 242: 199: 184: 165: 1194: 1629: 852: 1278: 1230: 1422: 1068: 343: 614:. This involves feeding weather observations collected over decades into a NWP system to recreate past atmospheric, sea- and land-surface conditions over specific time periods to obtain a clearer picture of how the climate has changed. Reanalysis provides a four-dimensional picture of the atmosphere and effectively allows monitoring of the variability and change of global climate, thereby contributing also to the understanding and attribution of climate change. 1386: 1050: 1368: 1260: 1140: 1458: 1104: 924: 1314: 1014: 996: 870: 1440: 1404: 1296: 906: 888: 834: 36: 1350: 1332: 1212: 1122: 1086: 978: 960: 1176: 942: 1032: 1158: 1913: 142: 655:. The deterministic forecast is a single model run that is relatively high in resolution as well as in computational expense. The ensemble is relatively low (about half that of the deterministic) in resolution (and in computational expense), so less accurate. But it is run 51 times in parallel, from slightly different initial conditions to give a spread of likelihood over the range of the forecast. 595:
ECMWF, through its partnerships with EUMETSAT, ESA, the EU and others, exploits satellite data for operational numerical weather prediction and operational seasonal forecasting with coupled atmosphere–ocean–land models. The increasing amount of satellite data and the development of more sophisticated
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ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) was developed as a tool to identify where the EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) forecast distribution differs substantially from that of the model climate. It contains information regarding variability of weather parameters, in location and time and can highlight
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ECMWF was established in 1975, in recognition of the need to pool the scientific and technical resources of Europe's meteorological services and institutions for the production of weather forecasts for medium-range timescales (up to approximately two weeks) and of the economic and social benefits
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ECMWF aims to provide accurate medium-range global weather forecasts out to 15 days and seasonal forecasts out to 12 months. Its products are provided to the national weather services of its member states and co-operating states as a complement to their national short-range and climatological
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Forecasts of severe weather events allow appropriate mitigating action to be taken and contingency plans to be put into place by the authorities and the public. The increased time gained by issuing accurate warnings can save lives, for instance by evacuating people from a
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project generated reanalyses from September 1957 to August 2002. The ERA-Interim reanalysis covered the period from 1979 onwards. A reanalysis product (ERA5) with higher spatial resolution (31 km) was released by ECMWF in 2019 as part of the
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ways of extracting information from that data have made a major contribution to improving the accuracy and utility of NWP forecasts. ECMWF continuously endeavours to improve the use of satellite observations for NWP.
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During 2020, the Centre arranged to move its Copernicus operations away from Reading and into European Union territory. Following bids from Toulouse, Italy, Austria, Germany, Spain and Ireland, eventually
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Established in 1975, ECMWF is renowned worldwide for providing the most accurate medium-range global weather forecasts up to 10 days ahead, monthly forecasts and seasonal outlooks to six months ahead.
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Over the past three decades ECMWF's wide-ranging programme of research has played a major role in developing such assimilation and modelling systems. This improves the accuracy and reliability of
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To date, and with support from Europe's National Meteorological Services and the European Commission, ECMWF has conducted several major reanalyses of the global atmosphere: the first
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Dee, D. P.; Uppala, S. M.; Simmons, A. J.; Berrisford, P.; Poli, P.; et al. (2011). "The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system".
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activities, and those national states use ECMWF's products for their own national duties, in particular to give early warning of potentially damaging severe weather.
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systems for the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Earth's atmosphere and for interacting parts of the Earth-system. It uses
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by about a day per decade, so that a seven-day forecast now (2015) is as accurate as a three-day forecast was four decades ago (1975).
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methods to prepare forecasts and their initial conditions, and it contributes to monitoring the relevant parts of the Earth system.
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expected from it. The Centre employs about 350 staff, mostly appointed from across the member states and co-operating states.
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area. Authorities and businesses can plan to maintain services around threats such as high winds, floods or snow.
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As of 2021, the ECMWF's weather model is generally considered to be the most accurate weather forecasting model.
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In 2017, the centre's member states accepted an offer from the Italian Government to move ECMWF's data centre to
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The centre currently serves as the Entrusted Entity responsible for delivery of two of the Services of the EU's
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an abnormality of a weather situation without having to define specific space- and time-dependent thresholds.
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Hersbach, H.; Bell, B.; Berrisford, P.; Hirahara, S.; Horányi, A.; Muñoz-Sabater, J.; et al. (2020).
2956: 2910: 2704: 2555: 2408:"Sun from Behind the Clouds: the Appeals Board of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts" 580: 2030: 1811:"España postulará a Barcelona como sede del Centro Europeo de Predicciones Meteorológicas a Plazo Medio" 3783: 3372: 1520: 645: 639: 3276: 611: 506: 378: 2267: 3261: 3256: 3138: 2820: 2631: 1832: 292: 258: 183: 164: 198: 3586: 3351: 3271: 2586: 2416: 46: 365: 3387: 3133: 3096: 2855: 2835: 2369: 377:, Italy. The new site, a former tobacco factory, would be redesigned by the architecture firm 3500: 2951: 2672: 1561: 1531: 17: 2200: 1571:
Memorandum of Understanding for Joint Liaison Office with European institutions in Brussels
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is used to produce an initial state of a computer model of the atmosphere, from which an
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Produce numerical weather forecasts and monitor planetary systems that influence weather
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ECMWF's monthly and seasonal forecasts provide early predictions of events such as
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The Centre arranged to move its Copernicus operations away from Reading and into
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European intergovernmental weather computation organisation based in the UK
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ECMWF supports research on climate variability using an approach known as
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monthly forecasts, predicting the weather on a weekly basis 30 days ahead
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supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites:
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In October 2012 the ECMWF model suggested seven days in advance that
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Carry out scientific and technical research to improve forecast skill
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medium-range forecasts, predicting the weather up to 15 days ahead
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Information technology organisations based in the United Kingdom
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is used to forecast the weather. These forecasts are typically:
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Major physics research facilities based in the United Kingdom
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Atmospheric, oceanographic, cryospheric, and climate models
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It includes both a "deterministic forecast" mode and an
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Medium-Range Weather Prediction – the European Approach
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It also has co-operation agreements with other states:
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Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
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Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
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ECMWF's operational forecasts are produced from its "
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Archived from 3804:Governmental meteorological agencies in Europe 2252: 2052:Roulstone, Ian; Norbury, John (25 July 2013). 423:Twice-daily global numerical weather forecasts 3186: 3032: 2520: 2328:"ECMWF welcomes Estonia as 23rd Member State" 2215: 633: 2334: 2260:"Slovenia becomes ECMWF's 20th Member State" 2221: 1684: 1682: 2413:Journal of International Dispute Settlement 1725: 1723: 1721: 3193: 3179: 3039: 3025: 2527: 2513: 2453: 2291:"Serbia becomes ECMWF's 21st Member State" 2054:"How Math helped forecast Hurricane Sandy" 1962:"Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service" 1835:. Radió Telefis Éireann. 23 September 2020 1598:23 January 2015 - amended 30 January 2018 415:Maintain an archive of meteorological data 291: 257: 240: 197: 182: 163: 149: 3819:Organisations based in Reading, Berkshire 3779:1975 establishments in the United Kingdom 2170: 2137: 1679: 535:seasonal forecasts up to 12 months ahead. 120:Learn how and when to remove this message 3122:Atmospheric, astronomy and space science 2307: 2288: 2006:"COVID-19: Aeolus and weather forecasts" 1856: 1854: 1852: 1850: 1718: 468:Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service 442:The Centre develops and operates global 364: 341: 3824:Research institutes established in 1975 3799:Government agencies established in 1975 666:ECMWF comprises 23 European countries: 14: 3771: 2405: 670:the eighteen founding states of 1975: 559:Early warning of severe weather events 3298: 3210: 3174: 3160:Medium Energy Ion Scattering Facility 3020: 2508: 2386: 2031:"The Forecast For Weather Technology" 1937: 1885: 1883: 1847: 3486:Regional and mesoscale oceanographic 3065:Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) 745:five states that joined since 2010: 488: 58:adding citations to reliable sources 29: 3299: 2289:Jeppesen, Joanne (5 January 2015). 1984:"Copernicus Climate Change Service" 575:was likely to make landfall on the 24: 3428:Regional and mesoscale atmospheric 2380: 1880: 429:Atmospheric composition monitoring 25: 3850: 3006:World Meteorological Organization 2998:European Severe Storms Laboratory 2440: 628:Copernicus Climate Change Service 590: 472:Copernicus Climate Change Service 3829:Research institutes in Berkshire 2308:Jeppesen, Joanne (1 July 2016). 1641: 1627: 1456: 1438: 1420: 1402: 1384: 1366: 1348: 1330: 1312: 1294: 1276: 1258: 1228: 1210: 1192: 1174: 1156: 1138: 1120: 1102: 1084: 1066: 1048: 1030: 1012: 994: 976: 958: 940: 922: 904: 886: 868: 850: 832: 140: 34: 3252:Atmospheric dispersion modeling 3247:Tropical cyclone forecast model 3211: 2370:"ECMWF Co-operating Agreements" 2320: 2301: 2282: 2238: 2193: 2179: 2146: 2101: 2071: 2045: 2023: 1998: 1931: 1905: 577:East Coast of the United States 45:needs additional citations for 3129:UK Astronomy Technology Centre 2222:Paul Douglas (18 April 2021). 1825: 1803: 1781: 1759: 1737: 1704: 662:Member and co-operating states 547:Monthly and seasonal forecasts 493: 312:intergovernmental organisation 13: 1: 3789:Climate of the United Kingdom 1672: 599: 457: 396: 3814:Meteorological organizations 3652:Land surface parametrization 3242:Numerical weather prediction 3113:ISIS Neutron and Muon Source 2537:meteorological organizations 2155:"The ERA5 global reanalysis" 499:Numerical weather prediction 452:numerical weather prediction 405:ECMWF's core mission is to: 356: co-operation agreement 7: 2356:"ECMWF Co-operating States" 1813:. europa press. 29 May 2020 1620: 1613: 1605: 1597: 1589: 1581: 1573: 1565: 1555: 1545: 1535: 1525: 1509: 1499: 1489: 1467: 1449: 1431: 1413: 1395: 1377: 1359: 1341: 1323: 1305: 1287: 1269: 1239: 1221: 1203: 1185: 1167: 1149: 1131: 1113: 1095: 1077: 1059: 1041: 1023: 1005: 987: 969: 951: 933: 915: 897: 879: 861: 843: 466:. The two services are the 10: 3855: 3794:European research networks 3060:Joint European Torus (JET) 2201:"Modelling and Prediction" 1938:ECMWF (30 December 2013), 646:Integrated Forecast System 640:Integrated Forecast System 637: 634:Operational forecast model 603: 435:Ocean circulation analysis 337: 3738: 3693: 3677: 3651: 3620: 3534: 3485: 3427: 3365: 3309: 3305: 3294: 3277:Meteorological reanalysis 3217: 3206: 3152: 3121: 3105: 3089: 3074:Synchrotron light sources 3073: 3052: 2980: 2944: 2788: 2645: 2574: 2543: 2203:. ECMWF. 29 November 2013 1986:. ECMWF. 11 November 2014 1964:. ECMWF. 11 November 2014 1769:. Die Presse. 20 May 2020 1692:. ECMWF. 28 November 2013 519:Assimilation of this data 276: 266: 248: 206: 191: 173: 157: 148: 139: 3262:Upper-atmospheric models 3257:Chemical transport model 3139:Jodrell Bank Observatory 3106:Neutron and muon sources 2033:. Sky News. 17 July 2015 1912:Deutscher Wetterdienst. 1893:. en24 news. 30 May 2020 1477:Co-operating agreements 581:November 2012 nor'easter 350: members as of 2015 3272:Model output statistics 2460:ECMWF Re-analysis (ERA) 2417:Oxford University Press 2406:Butler, Graham (2024). 2266:. ECMWF. Archived from 1733:Bloomberg. 30 May 2020. 438:Hydrological prediction 3535:Atmospheric dispersion 3134:Chilbolton Observatory 3097:Central Laser Facility 2430:10.1093/jnlids/idae013 2387:Woods, Austin (2006). 370: 358: 2342:"ECMWF Member States" 1791:. TAG24. 16 June 2020 368: 345: 3834:Borough of Wokingham 3753:Scientific modelling 3267:Ensemble forecasting 3081:Diamond Light Source 2775:United Arab Emirates 2248:. 22 September 2015. 2083:www.wunderground.com 1667:Copernicus Programme 464:Copernicus Programme 426:Air quality analysis 310:) is an independent 228:51.41961°N 0.95081°W 195:United Kingdom  54:improve this article 3839:Weather forecasting 3758:Computer simulation 3227:Oceanographic model 2270:on 3 September 2013 2122:2011QJRMS.137..553D 2058:Scientific American 1868:on 16 December 2020 1249:Co-operating State 700:Republic of Ireland 541:weather forecasting 224: /  169:(49 years ago) 136: 3743:Mathematical model 3678:Cryospheric models 3621:Chemical transport 2487:on 11 August 2004. 2475:on 11 August 2004. 2330:. 1 December 2020. 2189:. 17 January 2019. 2165:(730): 1999–2049. 444:atmospheric models 432:Climate monitoring 371: 359: 233:51.41961; -0.95081 134: 3784:Climate of Europe 3766: 3765: 3748:Statistical model 3734: 3733: 3730: 3729: 3290: 3289: 3232:Cryospheric model 3222:Atmospheric model 3168: 3167: 3014: 3013: 2398:978-0-387-26928-3 2139:20.500.11824/1106 1618: 1617: 1526:19 February 1999 1472: 1471: 1450:22 December 2003 1378:20 November 2006 1244: 1243: 753:(December 2012), 619:ECMWF re-analysis 606:ECMWF re-analysis 523:atmospheric model 503:earth observation 489:Work and projects 448:data assimilation 300: 299: 130: 129: 122: 104: 16:(Redirected from 3846: 3307: 3306: 3296: 3295: 3208: 3207: 3195: 3188: 3181: 3172: 3171: 3041: 3034: 3027: 3018: 3017: 2529: 2522: 2515: 2506: 2505: 2488: 2483:. 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ECMWF. 2017. 2361: 2358:. ECMWF. 2017. 2347: 2344:. ECMWF. 2017. 2333: 2319: 2300: 2281: 2251: 2237: 2226:. AerisWeather 2214: 2192: 2178: 2145: 2130:10.1002/qj.828 2100: 2070: 2044: 2022: 1997: 1975: 1953: 1930: 1904: 1879: 1846: 1824: 1802: 1780: 1758: 1736: 1717: 1703: 1677: 1676: 1674: 1671: 1670: 1669: 1664: 1659: 1653: 1652: 1638: 1635:Weather portal 1622: 1619: 1616: 1615: 1612: 1608: 1607: 1604: 1600: 1599: 1596: 1592: 1591: 1588: 1584: 1583: 1580: 1576: 1575: 1574:23 April 2010 1572: 1568: 1567: 1564: 1558: 1557: 1554: 1548: 1547: 1544: 1538: 1537: 1534: 1528: 1527: 1524: 1512: 1511: 1508: 1502: 1501: 1498: 1492: 1491: 1488: 1482: 1481: 1478: 1470: 1469: 1466: 1452: 1451: 1448: 1434: 1433: 1430: 1416: 1415: 1412: 1398: 1397: 1394: 1380: 1379: 1376: 1362: 1361: 1360:30 April 2008 1358: 1344: 1343: 1340: 1326: 1325: 1322: 1308: 1307: 1304: 1290: 1289: 1288:1 August 2001 1286: 1284:Czech Republic 1272: 1271: 1268: 1254: 1253: 1250: 1242: 1241: 1238: 1236:United Kingdom 1224: 1223: 1220: 1206: 1205: 1202: 1188: 1187: 1184: 1170: 1169: 1166: 1152: 1151: 1148: 1134: 1133: 1130: 1116: 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Springer. 2388: 2364: 2350: 2336: 2322: 2313: 2303: 2294: 2284: 2272:. Retrieved 2268:the original 2263: 2254: 2246:"MeteoWorld" 2240: 2230:14 September 2228:. Retrieved 2217: 2205:. Retrieved 2195: 2181: 2162: 2158: 2148: 2113: 2109: 2103: 2091:. Retrieved 2087:the original 2082: 2073: 2061:. Retrieved 2057: 2047: 2035:. Retrieved 2025: 2013:. Retrieved 2009: 2000: 1988:. Retrieved 1978: 1966:. Retrieved 1956: 1945:, retrieved 1940: 1933: 1925: 1918:. Retrieved 1907: 1895:. Retrieved 1870:. Retrieved 1866:the original 1839:24 September 1837:. Retrieved 1827: 1815:. Retrieved 1805: 1793:. Retrieved 1783: 1771:. Retrieved 1761: 1749:. Retrieved 1739: 1706: 1694:. 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2627:Mexico 2597:Canada 2592:Brazil 2544:Africa 2500:TOP500 2395:  2310:"News" 1897:1 June 1579:RIMES 1552:CLRTAP 1517:HIRLAM 1461:  1443:  1425:  1407:  1389:  1371:  1356:Latvia 1353:  1338:Israel 1335:  1317:  1299:  1281:  1263:  1233:  1218:Turkey 1215:  1182:Sweden 1179:  1161:  1143:  1128:Serbia 1125:  1107:  1092:Norway 1089:  1071:  1053:  1035:  1017:  999:  984:Greece 981:  963:  948:France 945:  927:  909:  891:  873:  855:  837:  791:Latvia 787:Israel 755:Serbia 736:Turkey 728:Sweden 716:Norway 696:Greece 688:France 623:ERA-40 483:Brexit 391:Brexit 354:  348:  289:  284:.ecmwf 255:  180:  96:  89:  82:  75:  67:  3664:CLASS 3659:JULES 3628:CLaMS 3612:SILAM 3521:FESOM 3511:FVCOM 3492:HyCOM 3478:HRDPS 3454:RAQMS 3398:NAEFS 3357:ECHAM 3352:CFSv2 3144:ECMWF 2967:Tonga 2911:Spain 2856:Italy 2705:Japan 2685:India 2678:Macau 2668:China 2602:Chile 2556:Ghana 2496:ECMWF 2314:ECMWF 2295:ECMWF 2093:1 May 1542:CTBTO 1506:ACMAD 1240:1975 1222:1976 1204:1975 1186:1975 1168:1975 1164:Spain 1150:2011 1132:2014 1114:1976 1096:1989 1078:1975 1060:2002 1042:1977 1038:Italy 1024:1975 1006:2011 988:1976 970:1975 952:1975 934:1975 916:2020 898:1975 880:2011 862:1975 844:1975 724:Spain 704:Italy 308:ECMWF 101:JSTOR 87:books 18:ECMWF 3685:CICE 3669:ISBA 3592:OSPM 3587:NAME 3577:MEMO 3572:ISC3 3542:ADMS 3496:ROMS 3474:RGEM 3469:HWRF 3462:LAPS 3445:RAMS 3393:MPAS 3347:CESM 3342:CCSM 3337:CGCM 3317:IGCM 2957:Fiji 2695:Iran 2646:Asia 2393:ISBN 2276:2012 2232:2021 2209:2016 2095:2017 2065:2013 2039:2016 2017:2023 1992:2019 1970:2019 1949:2019 1922:2014 1899:2020 1874:2020 1841:2020 1819:2020 1797:2020 1775:2020 1753:2020 1698:2016 1587:CMA 813:and 479:Bonn 446:and 387:Bonn 332:Bonn 302:The 286:.int 73:news 3722:RUC 3712:NGM 3707:MM5 3703:LFM 3700:Eta 3506:MOM 3501:POM 3465:RPM 3450:WRF 3435:NAM 3388:GFS 3378:FIM 2498:on 2426:doi 2167:doi 2163:146 2134:hdl 2126:doi 2114:137 1562:ESA 1532:JRC 1521:IFS 1486:WMO 379:gmp 282:www 56:by 3775:: 3408:UM 2422:15 2420:. 2415:, 2410:. 2312:. 2293:. 2262:. 2161:. 2157:. 2132:. 2124:. 2112:. 2081:. 2056:. 2008:. 1924:. 1882:^ 1849:^ 1720:^ 1681:^ 817:. 809:, 805:, 801:, 797:, 793:, 789:, 785:, 781:, 777:, 773:, 738:, 734:, 730:, 726:, 722:, 718:, 714:, 710:, 706:, 702:, 698:, 694:, 690:, 686:, 682:, 678:, 674:, 630:. 517:. 485:. 393:. 381:. 326:; 322:, 318:, 3194:e 3187:t 3180:v 3040:e 3033:t 3026:v 2528:e 2521:t 2514:v 2432:. 2428:: 2401:. 2316:. 2297:. 2278:. 2234:. 2211:. 2175:. 2169:: 2142:. 2136:: 2128:: 2120:: 2097:. 2067:. 2041:. 2019:. 1994:. 1972:. 1901:. 1876:. 1843:. 1821:. 1799:. 1777:. 1755:. 1700:. 742:. 306:( 123:) 117:( 112:) 108:( 98:· 91:· 84:· 77:· 50:. 20:)

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