390:
understanding the relevant recent past; scanning to collect insight about present, futuring to describe the understood future including trend research; environment research to explore possible trend breaks from developments on the fringe and other divergencies that may lead to alternative futures; visioning to define preferred future states; designing strategies to craft this future; and adapting the present forces to implement this plan. There is notable but not complete overlap between foresight and strategic planning, change management, forecasting, and design thinking.
31:
451:
484:
futures: it is helpful to examine alternative paths of development, not just what is currently believed to be most likely or business as usual. Often
Foresight will construct multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the way to creating what may be known as positive visions, success
431:
work, but
Foresight programmes were designed to influence policy - often R&D policy. Much technology policy had been very elitist; Foresight attempts to go beyond the "usual suspects" and gather widely distributed intelligence. These three lines of work were already common in Francophone
377:
In the last decade, scenario methods, for example, have become widely used in some
European countries in policy-making. The FORSOCIETY network brings together national Foresight teams from most European countries, and the European Foresight Monitoring Project is collating material on Foresight
439:
Foresight thus draws on traditions of work in long-range planning and strategic planning, horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, and participatory futurology - but was also highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, science and technology policy, and analysis of
389:
The foresight of futurology is also known as strategic foresight. This foresight used by and describing professional futurists trained in Master's programs is the research-driven practice of exploring expected and alternative futures and guiding futures to inform strategy. Foresight includes
466:- futures that are usually at least 10 years away (though there are some exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight is action-oriented (the planning link) it will rarely be oriented to perspectives beyond a few decades out (though where decisions like
447:
surveys, scenario workshops, etc. - derive from futurology. The flowchart to the right provides an overview of some of the techniques as they relate to the scenario as defined in the intuitive logics tradition.
485:
scenarios, aspirational futures. Sometimes alternative scenarios will be a major part of the output of
Foresight work, with the decision about what future to build being left to other mechanisms.
397:”) is becoming more professional and widespread Corporate foresight is used to support strategic management, identify new business fields and increase the innovation capacity of a firm.
436:. But in the 1990s we began to see what became an explosion of systematic organisation of these methods in large scale TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT programmes in Europe and more widely.
319:
628:
A. Hines & J. Gold, “An organizational futurist role for integrating foresight into corporations,” Technological
Forecasting and Social Change, Available online 2 May 2014.
606:
C. Daheim and G. Uerz, "Corporate foresight in Europe: from trend based logics to open foresight," Technology
Analysis & Strategic Management, vol. 20, pp. 321-336, 2008)
569:
van
Steenbergen, Bart: Scenarios As a Powerful Tool for Public Policy. As presented at the Prague Workshop on Futures Studies Methodology, October 2005,
729:
362:
and for some futurists who are normative and focus on action driven by their values who may be concerned with effort to create wider
326:
646:
809:
744:
749:
275:
573:
404:. It encompasses a range of approaches that combine the three components mentioned above, which may be recast as:
739:
767:
90:
779:
525:
285:
217:
85:
295:
38:
540:
383:
132:
793:
754:
Research focusing more on the combination of foresight and national R&D policy can be found in
312:
57:
363:
270:
160:
80:
616:
814:
545:
251:
97:
593:(presented at the conference “Foresight Management in Corporations and Public Organizations”,
500:
378:
activities around the world. In addition, foresight methods are being used more and more in
247:
175:
70:
755:
589:
Ratcliffe, John: Challenges for
Corporate Foresight: Towards Strategic Prospective Through
8:
771:
550:
535:
505:
495:
394:
300:
47:
401:
290:
280:
170:
165:
146:
127:
75:
734:
642:
590:
530:
454:
Process for classifying a phenomenon as a scenario in the
Intuitive Logics tradition.
379:
353:
222:
675:
Corporate
Foresight: Its Three Roles in Enhancing the Innovation Capacity of a Firm"
703:
515:
475:
382:
and decision –making (“regional foresight”). Several non-European think-tanks like
227:
212:
185:
137:
122:
52:
639:
Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm
783:
641:, Springer Series: Contributions to Management Science, Heidelberg and New York,
577:
260:
207:
107:
102:
65:
22:
30:
787:
265:
237:
112:
474:
construction or other major infrastructural decisions are concerned, then the
803:
520:
471:
444:
370:
232:
202:
180:
197:
594:
570:
510:
467:
428:
155:
340:
366:. Foresight is a set of competencies and not a value system, however.
770:
developed by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of
659:
Benchmarking Report - Strategic Foresight in Multinational Companies
708:
691:
674:
658:
117:
725:
There are numerous journals that deal with research on foresight:
450:
443:
Many of the methods that are commonly associated with Foresight -
776:
662:
359:
786:
of UNIDO, the Investment and Technology Promotion Branch of
756:
International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy
393:
At the same time, the use of foresight for companies (“
349:
has become widely used to describe activities such as:
667:
617:
Assessing the future of futures studies in management
657:
Rohrbeck, R., S. Mahdjour, S. Knab, T. Frese (2009)
458:So does the fact that Foresight is concerned with:
690:Spaniol, Matthew J.; Rowland, Nicholas J. (2019).
661:Report of the European Corporate Foresight Group:
651:
16:Term referring to various activities in futurology
423:(participatory, dialogic) tools and orientations.
400:Foresight is not the same as futures research or
801:
563:
600:
689:
411:(forecasting, forward thinking, prospectives),
369:shaping the future, especially by influencing
583:
320:
796:published by the European Foundation, Dublin
631:
730:Technological Forecasting and Social Change
678:Technological Forecasting and Social Change
609:
417:(strategic analysis, priority setting), and
327:
313:
707:
427:Much futurology research has been rather
449:
794:Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight
595:http://www.tukkk.fi/tutu/conference2005
571:http://ceses.cuni.cz/english/051019.php
386:are also engaged in foresight studies.
802:
580:. To be published in the proceedings.
790:Industrial Development Organization.
745:European Journal of Futures Research
619:, Futures, Vol. 40, Iss. 3, 237-246.
673:Rohrbeck, R. H.G. Gemuenden (2011)
13:
720:
432:futures studies going by the name
356:concerning long-term developments,
14:
826:
761:
343:, especially in Europe, the term
29:
740:Futures & Foresight Science
696:Futures & Foresight Science
683:
622:
1:
556:
478:may well be half a century).
7:
810:Foresight (futures studies)
526:Reference class forecasting
489:
286:Science fiction prototyping
218:Reference class forecasting
10:
831:
768:The FORLEARN Online Guide
541:Strategic Foresight Group
440:"critical technologies".
384:Strategic Foresight Group
58:Global catastrophic risk
777:The Foresight Programme
772:the European Commission
364:participatory democracy
271:Exploratory engineering
161:Causal layered analysis
637:Rohrbeck, Rene (2010)
615:Schwarz, J.-O. (2008)
546:Technology forecasting
455:
98:Historical materialism
501:Emerging technologies
453:
176:Cross impact analysis
692:"Defining Scenario"
551:Technology Scouting
536:Strategic foresight
506:Foresight Institute
496:Accelerating change
395:corporate foresight
301:Technology scouting
48:Accelerating change
788:the United Nations
782:2008-08-21 at the
576:2005-12-19 at the
456:
402:strategic planning
291:Speculative design
171:Consensus forecast
166:Chain-linked model
128:Resource depletion
680:, 78(2), 231–243.
647:978-3-7908-2625-8
591:Scenario Thinking
531:Scenario planning
380:regional planning
354:critical thinking
337:
336:
223:Scenario planning
86:Space exploration
822:
714:
713:
711:
687:
681:
671:
665:
655:
649:
635:
629:
626:
620:
613:
607:
604:
598:
587:
581:
567:
516:Horizon scanning
476:planning horizon
329:
322:
315:
228:Systems analysis
213:Horizon scanning
186:Real-time Delphi
123:Population cycle
53:Cashless society
33:
19:
18:
830:
829:
825:
824:
823:
821:
820:
819:
800:
799:
784:Wayback Machine
764:
723:
721:Further reading
718:
717:
688:
684:
672:
668:
663:Berlin, Germany
656:
652:
636:
632:
627:
623:
614:
610:
605:
601:
597:, Helsinki 2005
588:
584:
578:Wayback Machine
568:
564:
559:
492:
468:aircraft design
333:
261:Critical design
208:Future workshop
108:Kardashev scale
103:Kondratiev wave
23:Futures studies
17:
12:
11:
5:
828:
818:
817:
812:
798:
797:
791:
774:
763:
762:External links
760:
759:
758:
752:
747:
742:
737:
732:
722:
719:
716:
715:
709:10.1002/ffo2.3
682:
666:
650:
630:
621:
608:
599:
582:
561:
560:
558:
555:
554:
553:
548:
543:
538:
533:
528:
523:
518:
513:
508:
503:
498:
491:
488:
487:
486:
479:
434:la prospective
425:
424:
418:
412:
375:
374:
367:
357:
335:
334:
332:
331:
324:
317:
309:
306:
305:
304:
303:
298:
293:
288:
283:
278:
273:
268:
266:Design fiction
263:
255:
254:
243:
242:
241:
240:
238:Trend analysis
235:
230:
225:
220:
215:
210:
205:
200:
195:
190:
189:
188:
178:
173:
168:
163:
158:
150:
149:
143:
142:
141:
140:
135:
130:
125:
120:
115:
110:
105:
100:
95:
94:
93:
88:
83:
78:
73:
68:
60:
55:
50:
42:
41:
35:
34:
26:
25:
15:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
827:
816:
815:Transhumanism
813:
811:
808:
807:
805:
795:
792:
789:
785:
781:
778:
775:
773:
769:
766:
765:
757:
753:
751:
748:
746:
743:
741:
738:
736:
733:
731:
728:
727:
726:
710:
705:
701:
697:
693:
686:
679:
676:
670:
664:
660:
654:
648:
644:
640:
634:
625:
618:
612:
603:
596:
592:
586:
579:
575:
572:
566:
562:
552:
549:
547:
544:
542:
539:
537:
534:
532:
529:
527:
524:
522:
521:Optimism bias
519:
517:
514:
512:
509:
507:
504:
502:
499:
497:
494:
493:
483:
480:
477:
473:
472:power station
469:
465:
461:
460:
459:
452:
448:
446:
441:
437:
435:
430:
422:
419:
416:
413:
410:
407:
406:
405:
403:
398:
396:
391:
387:
385:
381:
372:
371:public policy
368:
365:
361:
358:
355:
352:
351:
350:
348:
347:
342:
330:
325:
323:
318:
316:
311:
310:
308:
307:
302:
299:
297:
294:
292:
289:
287:
284:
282:
279:
277:
274:
272:
269:
267:
264:
262:
259:
258:
257:
256:
253:
249:
245:
244:
239:
236:
234:
233:Threatcasting
231:
229:
226:
224:
221:
219:
216:
214:
211:
209:
206:
204:
203:Futures wheel
201:
199:
196:
194:
191:
187:
184:
183:
182:
179:
177:
174:
172:
169:
167:
164:
162:
159:
157:
154:
153:
152:
151:
148:
145:
144:
139:
138:Swanson's law
136:
134:
131:
129:
126:
124:
121:
119:
116:
114:
111:
109:
106:
104:
101:
99:
96:
92:
89:
87:
84:
82:
79:
77:
74:
72:
69:
67:
64:
63:
61:
59:
56:
54:
51:
49:
46:
45:
44:
43:
40:
37:
36:
32:
28:
27:
24:
21:
20:
724:
699:
695:
685:
677:
669:
653:
638:
633:
624:
611:
602:
585:
565:
481:
463:
457:
442:
438:
433:
426:
420:
414:
408:
399:
392:
388:
376:
345:
344:
338:
198:Future-proof
192:
511:Forecasting
482:Alternative
464:longer-term
429:ivory tower
252:forecasting
246:Technology
156:Backcasting
133:Singularity
113:Moore's law
71:Mathematics
804:Categories
557:References
421:networking
341:futurology
281:Hype cycle
248:assessment
147:Techniques
750:Foresight
346:foresight
193:Foresight
780:Archived
574:Archived
490:See also
415:planning
118:Peak oil
91:Universe
39:Concepts
735:Futures
409:futures
81:Climate
62:Future
702:: e3.
645:
445:Delphi
360:debate
181:Delphi
66:Earth
643:ISBN
462:The
250:and
76:Race
704:doi
339:In
296:TRL
276:FTA
806::
698:.
694:.
470:,
712:.
706::
700:1
373:.
328:e
321:t
314:v
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.
