848:"(1) the potential of Policy Delphi methods to introduce transparency and accountability into public decision-making, especially in developing countries; (2) the utility of foresight exercises to foster multi-agency networking in the development community; (3) the usefulness of embedding foresight exercises into established mechanisms of representative democracy and international multilateralism, such as the United Nations; (4) the potential of online tools to facilitate participation in resource-scarce developing countries; and (5) the resource-efficiency stemming from the scale of international foresight exercises, and therefore its adequacy for resource-scarce regions."
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708:, health and education. It was also applied successfully and with high accuracy in business forecasting. For example, in one case reported by Basu and Schroeder (1977), the Delphi method predicted the sales of a new product during the first two years with inaccuracy of 3–4% compared with actual sales. Quantitative methods produced errors of 10–15%, and traditional unstructured forecast methods had errors of about 20%. (This is only one example; the overall accuracy of the technique is mixed.)
675:, who are selected for a reason, usually that they hold knowledge on an opinion or view. The facilitator sends out questionnaires, surveys etc. and if the panel of experts accept, they follow instructions and present their views. Responses are collected and analyzed, then common and conflicting viewpoints are identified. If consensus is not reached, the process continues through thesis and antithesis, to gradually work towards synthesis, and building consensus.
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latest Delphi round. The respondent's view on the probable and the preferable future are dealt with as separate cases. The computerization of
Argument Delphi is relatively difficult because of several problems like argument resolution, argument aggregation and argument evaluation. The computerization of Argument Delphi, developed by
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Use of the Delphi method in the development of guidelines for the reporting of health research is recommended, especially for experienced developers. Since this advice was made in 2010, two systematic reviews have found that fewer than 30% of published reporting guidelines incorporated Delphi methods
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The Delphi method has also been used as a tool to implement multi-stakeholder approaches for participative policy-making in developing countries. The governments of Latin
America and the Caribbean have successfully used the Delphi method as an open-ended public-private sector approach to identify the
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First applications of the Delphi method were in the field of science and technology forecasting. The objective of the method was to combine expert opinions on likelihood and expected development time, of the particular technology, in a single indicator. One of the first such reports, prepared in 1964
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It must also be realized that in areas such as science and technology forecasting, the degree of uncertainty is so great that exact and always correct predictions are impossible, so a high degree of error is to be expected. An important challenge for the method is ensuring sufficiently knowledgeable
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The following key characteristics of the Delphi method help the participants to focus on the issues at hand and separate Delphi from other methodologies: in this technique a panel of experts is drawn from both inside and outside the organisation. The panel consists of experts having knowledge of the
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is a manual for doing Delphi research which provides guidance for doing research and offers a appraisal tool.This manual gives guidance on best practices that will help to avoid, or mitigate, potential drawbacks of Delphi Method
Research; it also helps to understand the confidence that can be given
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or change agent provides an anonymised summary of the experts' forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during
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The
Argument Delphi, developed by Osmo Kuusi, focuses on ongoing discussion and finding relevant arguments rather than focusing on the output. The Disaggregative Policy Delphi, developed by Petri Tapio, uses cluster analysis as a systematic tool to construct various scenarios of the future in the
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in Latin
America. It is believed to be the most extensive online participatory policy-making foresight exercise in the history of intergovernmental processes in the developing world at this time. In addition to the specific policy guidance provided, the authors list the following lessons learned:
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One of the initial problems of the method was its inability to make complex forecasts with multiple factors. Potential future outcomes were usually considered as if they had no effect on each other. Later on, several extensions to the Delphi method were developed to address this problem, such as
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Usually all participants remain anonymous. Their identity is not revealed, even after the completion of the final report. This prevents the authority, personality, or reputation of some participants from dominating others in the process. Arguably, it also frees participants (to some extent) from
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The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. The panel director controls the interactions among the participants by processing the information and filtering out irrelevant content. This avoids the negative
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In the early 1980s Jackie
Awerman of Jackie Awerman Associates, Inc. designed a modified Delphi method for identifying the roles of various contributors to the creation of a patent-eligible product. (Epsilon Corporation, Chemical Vapor Deposition Reactor) The results were then used by patent
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contexts include non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, iodine deficiency disorders, building responsive health systems for communities affected by migration, the role of health systems in advancing well-being for those living with HIV, and in creating a 2022 paper on recommendations to end the
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A number of Delphi forecasts are conducted using web sites that allow the process to be conducted in real-time. For instance, the TechCast
Project uses a panel of 100 experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields of science and technology. Another example is the
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the use of two or more panels representing different groups (such as policy-makers, experts, citizens), which the administrator can give tasks reflecting their diverse roles and expertise, and make them to interact within ad hoc communication structures. For example, the
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this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a predefined stopping criterion (e.g., number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results), and the
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Traditionally the Delphi method has aimed at a consensus of the most probable future by iteration. Other versions, such as the Policy Delphi, offer decision support methods aiming at structuring and discussing the diverse views of the preferred future.
949:. Overall the track record of the Delphi method is mixed. There have been many cases when the method produced poor results. Still, some authors attribute this to poor application of the method and not to the weaknesses of the method itself. The
966:, that takes into consideration the possibility that the occurrence of one event may change probabilities of other events covered in the survey. Still the Delphi method can be used most successfully in forecasting single scalar indicators.
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Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a
716:. As a result, governments have widely acknowledged the value of collective intelligence from civil society, academic and private sector participants of the Delphi, especially in a field of rapid change, such as technology policies.
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Special attention has to be paid to the formulation of the Delphi theses and the definition and selection of the experts in order to avoid methodological weaknesses that severely threaten the validity and reliability of the results.
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Experts were asked to give their opinion on the probability, frequency, and intensity of possible enemy attacks. Other experts could anonymously give feedback. This process was repeated several times until a consensus emerged.
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the iteration structure used in the paper
Delphis, which is divided into three or more discrete rounds, can be replaced by a process of continuous (roundless) interaction, enabling panelists to change their evaluations at any
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During the past decades, facilitators have used many different measures and thresholds to measure the degree of consensus or dissent. A comprehensive literature review and summary is compiled in an article by von der Gracht.
701:, space progress, war prevention and weapon systems. Other forecasts of technology were dealing with vehicle-highway systems, industrial robots, intelligent internet, broadband connections, and technology in education.
543:, although the authors of the method were unhappy with the oracular connotation of the name, "smacking a little of the occult". The Delphi method assumes that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.
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Delphi can also be used to help reach expert consensus and develop professional guidelines. It is used for such purposes in many health-related fields, including clinical medicine, public health, and research.
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Participants do not have to be selected and recruited manually by a facilitator. They themselves decide whether to participate if they think their private information is not yet incorporated in the forecast.
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the complexity of issues posed in public policy-making tends to increase weighting of panelists’ arguments, such as soliciting pros and cons for each item along with new items for panel consideration;
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Schaffner M, Rochau U, Stojkov I, Qerimi Rushaj V, Völzke H, Marckmann G, et al. (April 2021). "Barriers
Against Prevention Programs for Iodine Deficiency Disorders in Europe: A Delphi Study".
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Delphi is applicable in situations where the bets involved might affect the value of the currency used in bets (e.g. a bet on the collapse of the dollar made in dollars might have distorted odds).
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Rosowsky E, Young AS, Malloy MC, van Alphen SP, Ellison JM (March 2018). "A cross-validation Delphi method approach to the diagnosis and treatment of personality disorders in older adults".
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A cross-validation study replicating one completed in the
Netherlands and Belgium, and exploring US experts' views on the diagnosis and treatment of older adults with personality disorders.
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as both are structured approaches that aggregate diverse opinions from groups. Yet, there are differences that may be decisive for their relative applicability for different problems.
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or trend extrapolation, quickly became apparent in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established yet. To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed by
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The Delphi method allows participants to comment on the responses of others, the progress of the panel as a whole, and to revise their own forecasts and opinions in real time.
2321:. An example of e-democracy application is DEMOS (Delphi Mediation Online System), whose prototype was presented at the 3rd Worldwide Forum on Electronic Democracy, in 2002.
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Banno M, Tsujimoto Y, Kataoka Y (August 2020). "The majority of reporting guidelines are not developed with the Delphi method: a systematic review of reporting guidelines".
909:, where educational futurists collaborate online using the Delphi method to come up with the technological advancements to look out for in education for the next few years.
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Prokesch T, von der Gracht H, Wohlenberg H (2015). "Integrating prediction market and Delphi methodology into a foresight support system — Insights from an online game".
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method that relies on a panel of experts. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach,
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Today the Delphi method is a widely accepted forecasting tool and has been used successfully for thousands of studies in areas varying from technology forecasting to
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1753:"Foresight tools for participative policy-making in inter-governmental processes in developing countries: Lessons learned from the eLAC Policy Priorities Delphi"
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Further innovations come from the use of computer-based (and later web-based) Delphi conferences. According to Turoff and Hiltz, in computer-based Delphis:
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The Delphi technique is widely used to help reach expert consensus in health-related settings. For example, it is frequently employed in the development of
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by Gordon and Helmer, assessed the direction of long-term trends in science and technology development, covering such topics as scientific breakthroughs,
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formats. The authors provide a methodological toolbox for designing Delphi surveys including among others sentiment analyses of the field of psychology.
1462:"Improving the question formulation in Delphi-like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior"
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One successful example of a (partially) web-based policy Delphi is the five-round Delphi exercise (with 1,454 contributions) for the creation of the
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Basu S, Schroeder RG (May 1977). "Incorporating Judgments in Sales Forecasts: Application of the Delphi Method at American Hoist & Derrick".
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More recent research has also focused on combining both, the Delphi technique and prediction markets. More specifically, in a research study at
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1361:. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science. Vol. 30. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 125–144.
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839:(HD), are designed to make Delphi conferences "more fluid and adapted to the hypertextual and interactive nature of digital communication".
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From the 1970s, the use of the Delphi technique in public policy-making introduces a number of methodological innovations. In particular:
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638:", allows free expression of opinions, encourages open critique, and facilitates admission of errors when revising earlier judgments.
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According to Bolognini, web-based Delphis offer two further possibilities, relevant in the context of interactive policy-making and
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In 2021, a cross-disciplinary study by Beiderbeck et al. focused on new directions and advancements of the Delphi method, including
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von der Gracht H (2012). "Consensus Measurement in Delphi Studies - Review and Implications for Future Quality Assurance".
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This article provides a detailed description of the use of modified Delphi for qualitative, participatory action research.
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Democrazia elettronica. Metodo Delphi e politiche pubbliche (Electronic Democracy. Delphi Method and Public Policy-Making)
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items) leads to introducing different evaluation scales which are not used in the standard Delphi. These often include
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In Europe, more recent web-based experiments have used the Delphi method as a communication technique for interactive
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1645:"Preparing, conducting, and analyzing Delphi surveys: Cross-disciplinary practices, new directions, and advancements"
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panelists. If panelists are misinformed about a topic, the use of Delphi may only add confidence to their ignorance.
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Tapio P (2003). "Disaggregative Policy Delphi: Using cluster analysis as a tool for systematic scenario formation".
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the statistical group response can be updated in real-time, and shown whenever a panelist provides a new evaluation.
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2011:"Consensus statement on the role of health systems in advancing the long-term well-being of people living with HIV"
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1960:"Building Responsive Health Systems to Help Communities Affected by Migration: An International Delphi Consensus"
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Mauksch S, Heiko A, Gordon TJ (May 2020). "Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods".
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likewise, methods measuring panel evaluations tend to increase sophistication such as multi-dimensional scaling.
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Later the Delphi method was applied in other places, especially those related to public policy issues, such as
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Lazarus JV, Safreed-Harmon K, Kamarulzaman A, Anderson J, Leite RB, Behrens G, et al. (July 2021).
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McLaughlin MW (1990). "The Rand Change Agent Study Revisited: Macro Perspectives and Micro Realities".
494:) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive
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attorneys to determine bonus distribution percentage to the general satisfaction of all team members.
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Dalkey N, Helmer O (1963). "An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the use of experts".
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Rowe G, Wright G (October 1999). "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis".
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They can motivate people to participate over a long period of time and to reveal their true beliefs.
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They aggregate information automatically and instantly incorporate new information in the forecast.
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Lazarus JV, Romero D, Kopka CJ, Karim SA, Abu-Raddad LJ, Almeida G, et al. (November 2022).
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Gazing Into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Application to Social Policy and Public Health
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Gazing into the oracle: The Delphi method and its application to social policy and public health
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Gazing Into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Application to Social Policy and Public Health
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Lazarus JV, Mark HE, Anstee QM, Arab JP, Batterham RL, Castera L, et al. (January 2022).
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2482:"Using the Delphi method for qualitative, participatory action research in health leadership"
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Turoff M, Hiltz SR (1996). "Computer based Delphi processes.". In Adler M, Ziglio E (eds.).
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2409:"II.B.3. The National Drug-Abuse Policy Delphi: Progress Report and Findings to Date"
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area requiring decision making. Each expert is asked to make anonymous predictions.
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RAND methodological guidance for conducting and critically appraising Delphi panels.
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RAND Methodological Guidance for Conducting and Critically Appraising Delphi Panels
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Downloadable documents from RAND concerning applications of the Delphi Technique.
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Passig D (Spring 1997). "Imen Delphi: A Delphi Variant Procedure for Emergence".
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1209:"Methods to elicit forecasts from groups: Delphi and prediction markets compared"
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2151:"Methodology and reporting quality of reporting guidelines: systematic review"
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Beiderbeck D, Frevel N, von der Gracht HA, Schmidt SL, Schweitzer VM (2021).
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Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts
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on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the military.
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Wang X, Chen Y, Yang N, Deng W, Wang Q, Li N, et al. (September 2015).
1858:"Advancing the global public health agenda for NAFLD: a consensus statement"
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elements of the Delphi method had been integrated into a prediction market.
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2068:"A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat"
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effects of face-to-face panel discussions and solves the usual problems of
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1247:"We Agree, Don't We? The Delphi Method for Health Environments Research"
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Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook of Researchers and Practitioners
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Khodyakov, D., Grant, S., Kroger, J., Bauman, M. (2023).
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derive from the possibility to provide incentives for participation.
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Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional
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835:. These web-based variable communication structures, which he calls
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Human Organization: Journal of the Society for Applied Anthropology
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Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting
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Markmann C, Spickermann A, von der Gracht HA, Brem A (March 2021).
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1352:"Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique"
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International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
1297:"Guidance for developers of health research reporting guidelines"
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Delphi assessment: Expert opinion, forecasting, and group process
765:, which the analysts can use to outline different scenarios: the
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members (policy-makers and experts) may interact as part of the
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The person coordinating the Delphi method is usually known as a
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Potentially quicker forecasts if experts are readily available.
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Delphi seems to have these advantages over prediction markets:
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most urgent challenges for their regional ICT-for-development
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Electronic Democracy. Delphi Method and Public Policy-Making
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Delphi Technique developed by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey.
1160:(Report). Santa Monica CA: The Rand Corporation. R-944-ARPA.
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Democrazia elettronica. Metodo Delphi e politiche pubbliche
1567:"The Modified Delphi Technique - A Rotational Modification"
1538:"The Delphi Method and its Contribution to Decision Making"
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Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting
1145:(Report). Santa Monica CA: The Rand Corporation. R-1283-PR.
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Moher D, Schulz KF, Simera I, Altman DG (February 2010).
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The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the
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1624:(1). Dallas, TX: Southern Methodist University: 53–63.
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the need to examine several types of items (not only
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The Millennium Project. Futures Research Methodology
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1565:Custer RL, Scarcella JA, Stewart BR (Spring 1999).
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49:. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed.
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671:or Leader, and facilitates the responses of their
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1862:Nature Reviews. Gastroenterology & Hepatology
1835:. New York: Amer Council for the United Nations.
810:A web-based communication structure (Hyperdelphi)
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2413:The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications
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1595:. Albany: State University of New York Press.
1207:Green KC, Armstrong JS, Graefe A (June 2008).
1174:The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications
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1571:Journal of Vocational and Technical Education
1130:(Report). Santa Monica CA: Rand Corp. P-3925.
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2486:International Journal of Qualitative Methods
2480:Fletcher AJ, Marchildon GP (February 2014).
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2451:Technological Forecasting and Social Change
2436:RAND Corporation. www.rand.org/t/TLA3082-1
2333:Technological Forecasting and Social Change
2309:] (in Italian). Rome: Carocci Editore.
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1503:Technological Forecasting and Social Change
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1544:. Jessica Kingsley Publishers. p. 5.
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2368:"Computerized Argument Delphi Technique"
1831:Glenn JC, Gordon TJ, eds. (2009). "23".
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3407:
2562:RAND publications on the Delphi Method
2242:
1615:
1535:
1418:
1244:
974:Delphi has characteristics similar to
630:their personal biases, minimizes the "
607:
2641:
2571:
2428:
2426:
2365:
2330:
2124:"Developing your reporting guideline"
1817:(in Italian). Rome: Carocci Editore.
1751:Hilbert M, Miles I, Othmer J (2009).
1529:
1339:
1155:
1125:
687:
1427:International Journal of Forecasting
1171:Linstone HA, Turoff M, eds. (1975).
872:Some examples of its application in
773:scenario (from feasibility) and the
47:adding citations to reliable sources
18:
2667:
2411:. In Turoff M, Linstone HA (eds.).
1630:10.17730/humo.56.1.a3676826366nx556
1003:Participants reveal their reasoning
654:
13:
3296:Bayesian statistics and Bayes nets
2472:
2423:
2059:
1177:. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.
769:scenario (from desirability), the
14:
3441:
3225:Failure mode and effects analysis
2555:
2438:https://doi.org/10.7249/tla3082-1
3328:Multi-criteria decision analysis
3276:Reliability centered maintenance
2277:Adler M, Ziglio E, eds. (1996),
2202:Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
2155:BMC Medical Research Methodology
1030:Computer supported brainstorming
581:during the 1950-1960s (1959) by
451:
131:
23:
2442:
2400:
2359:
2324:
2294:
2281:, London: Kingsley Publishers,
2270:
2245:"The Design of a Policy Delphi"
2236:
2193:
2142:
2002:
1951:
1908:
1849:
1788:
1712:
1685:
1609:
1540:. In Adler M, Ziglio E (eds.).
1494:
1466:Futures & Foresight Science
1453:
1383:
682:
642:Structuring of information flow
34:needs additional citations for
3244:Cause and consequence analysis
3118:Occupational safety and health
3026:Identity and access management
2463:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.021
2214:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.04.010
1774:10.1016/j.techfore.2009.01.001
1706:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.013
1515:10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119982
1164:
1149:
1134:
1119:
1082:
890:into the development process.
761:(technical and political) and
16:Interactive forecasting method
1:
2530:10.1080/13607863.2016.1261796
2345:10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00177-9
1439:10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00018-7
1076:
970:Delphi vs. prediction markets
912:
625:Anonymity of the participants
3204:Structured What If Technique
3187:Hazard and operability study
3043:Business continuity planning
2264:10.1016/0040-1625(70)90161-7
1314:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000217
777:scenario (from probability);
7:
3181:Preliminary hazard analysis
3000:Operational risk management
2393:10.1109/ACCESS.2015.2424703
1367:10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3_7
1126:Brown BB (September 1968).
1059:Reference class forecasting
1023:
940:
885:Use in reporting guidelines
388:Science fiction prototyping
320:Reference class forecasting
10:
3446:
3265:Human reliability analysis
2949:Enterprise risk management
2499:10.1177/160940691401300101
2092:10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2
2035:10.1038/s41467-021-24673-w
1875:10.1038/s41575-021-00523-4
897:
530:
3337:
3254:Layer protection analysis
3249:Cause-and-effect analysis
3131:
3056:Financial risk management
2938:
2903:
2793:Vulnerability (computing)
2682:
2675:
2607:
2518:Aging & Mental Health
2243:Turoff M (January 1970).
2168:10.1186/s12874-015-0069-z
1661:10.1016/j.mex.2021.101401
3215:Business impact analysis
3031:Vulnerability management
2977:Personal risk management
2776:Global catastrophic risk
1263:10.1177/1937586719887709
160:Global catastrophic risk
3096:Precautionary principle
3048:Disaster risk reduction
2128:www.equator-network.org
1829:. A summary is also in
1112:2027/inu.30000029301680
1049:Nominal group technique
663:Role of the facilitator
556:General Henry H. Arnold
373:Exploratory engineering
263:Causal layered analysis
3291:Monte Carlo simulation
3281:Sneak circuit analysis
2676:Risk type & source
1977:10.3390/ijerph14020144
1392:Educational Researcher
1357:. In Armstrong (ed.).
1039:Policy Analysis Market
852:Use in health settings
811:
741:items but, typically,
617:
488:Estimate-Talk-Estimate
200:Historical materialism
3316:Cost/benefit analysis
2960:Regulatory compliance
2015:Nature Communications
1929:10.1089/thy.2020.0065
964:cross impact analysis
894:Online Delphi systems
809:
615:
585:, Norman Dalkey, and
278:Cross impact analysis
3079:Strategic management
2955:Corporate governance
2733:Anthropogenic hazard
2301:Bolognini M (2001).
1813:Bolognini M (2001).
1225:10.2139/ssrn.1153124
1103:10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458
1070:The Wisdom of Crowds
868:Use in public health
729:Use in policy-making
571:theoretical approach
43:improve this article
3239:Event tree analysis
3234:Fault tree analysis
3220:Root cause analysis
3199:Toxicity assessment
3141:Exposure assessment
3111:Disaster management
3038:Incident management
3021:Security management
2714:Psychosocial hazard
2697:Reputational damage
2622:Sales force polling
2419:on 6 February 2012.
2407:Jillson IA (2002).
2384:2015IEEEA...3..368S
2084:2022Natur.611..332L
2027:2021NatCo..12.4450L
1733:10.1287/inte.7.3.18
981:Some advantages of
954:to study results.
608:Key characteristics
575:quantitative models
560:U.S. Army Air Corps
403:Technology scouting
150:Accelerating change
3430:Futures techniques
3420:Estimation methods
3321:Risk–benefit ratio
3123:Swiss cheese model
3084:Risk communication
2992:Disease management
2866:Exchange rate risk
2861:Interest rate risk
2612:Executive opinions
1591:Rescher N (1998).
1141:Sackman H (1974).
1091:Management Science
983:prediction markets
976:prediction markets
858:medical guidelines
812:
695:population control
688:Use in forecasting
618:
500:prediction markets
393:Speculative design
273:Consensus forecast
268:Chain-linked model
230:Resource depletion
3402:
3401:
3394:Crisis management
3210:Scenario analysis
3151:Scenario planning
3106:Crisis management
2987:Stress management
2934:
2933:
2827:Reputational risk
2635:
2634:
2366:Seker SE (2015).
2316:978-88-430-2035-5
2288:978-1-85302-104-6
2078:(7935): 332–345.
1842:978-0-9818941-1-9
1824:978-88-430-2035-5
1799:. pp. 56–85.
1602:978-0-7914-3553-3
1551:978-1-85302-104-6
1536:Ziglio E (1996).
1376:978-0-7923-7401-5
1245:Taylor E (2020).
1184:978-0-201-04294-8
879:COVID-19 pandemic
845:eLAC Action Plans
829:virtual community
714:eLAC Action Plans
569:methods, such as
539:derives from the
439:
438:
325:Scenario planning
188:Space exploration
119:
118:
111:
93:
3437:
3425:Systems thinking
3389:Opportunity cost
3338:Related concepts
3271:Bow tie analysis
3156:Contingency plan
2982:Health insurance
2970:Internal control
2811:Operational risk
2726:Natural disaster
2680:
2679:
2662:
2655:
2648:
2639:
2638:
2627:Consumer surveys
2592:
2585:
2578:
2569:
2568:
2549:
2511:
2501:
2467:
2466:
2446:
2440:
2430:
2421:
2420:
2415:. Archived from
2404:
2398:
2397:
2395:
2363:
2357:
2356:
2328:
2322:
2320:
2298:
2292:
2291:
2274:
2268:
2267:
2249:
2240:
2234:
2233:
2197:
2191:
2190:
2180:
2170:
2146:
2140:
2139:
2120:
2114:
2113:
2103:
2063:
2057:
2056:
2046:
2006:
2000:
1999:
1989:
1979:
1955:
1949:
1948:
1912:
1906:
1905:
1887:
1877:
1853:
1847:
1846:
1828:
1810:
1801:
1800:
1792:
1786:
1785:
1757:
1748:
1737:
1736:
1716:
1710:
1709:
1700:(8): 1525–1536.
1689:
1683:
1682:
1672:
1640:
1634:
1633:
1613:
1607:
1606:
1588:
1582:
1581:
1562:
1556:
1555:
1533:
1527:
1526:
1498:
1492:
1491:
1481:
1457:
1451:
1450:
1422:
1416:
1415:
1387:
1381:
1380:
1356:
1343:
1337:
1336:
1326:
1316:
1292:
1283:
1282:
1242:
1229:
1228:
1204:
1193:
1192:
1187:. Archived from
1168:
1162:
1161:
1156:Brown T (1972).
1153:
1147:
1146:
1138:
1132:
1131:
1123:
1117:
1116:
1114:
1086:
1044:Horizon scanning
935:Sadi Evren Seker
900:Real-time Delphi
821:policy community
673:panel of experts
655:Regular feedback
632:bandwagon effect
602:Real-time Delphi
587:Nicholas Rescher
541:Oracle of Delphi
486:; also known as
482:
477:
476:
473:
472:
469:
466:
463:
460:
457:
447:Delphi technique
431:
424:
417:
330:Systems analysis
315:Horizon scanning
288:Real-time Delphi
225:Population cycle
155:Cashless society
135:
121:
120:
114:
107:
103:
100:
94:
92:
51:
27:
19:
3445:
3444:
3440:
3439:
3438:
3436:
3435:
3434:
3405:
3404:
3403:
3398:
3377:Problem solving
3333:
3286:Markov analysis
3146:Hazard analysis
3133:Risk assessment
3127:
3062:Diversification
2940:Countermeasures
2930:
2899:
2745:Technology risk
2671:
2669:Risk management
2666:
2636:
2631:
2603:
2596:
2558:
2553:
2475:
2473:Further reading
2470:
2447:
2443:
2431:
2424:
2405:
2401:
2364:
2360:
2329:
2325:
2317:
2299:
2295:
2289:
2275:
2271:
2247:
2241:
2237:
2198:
2194:
2147:
2143:
2132:EQUATOR Network
2122:
2121:
2117:
2064:
2060:
2007:
2003:
1956:
1952:
1913:
1909:
1854:
1850:
1843:
1825:
1811:
1804:
1793:
1789:
1755:
1749:
1740:
1717:
1713:
1690:
1686:
1641:
1637:
1614:
1610:
1603:
1589:
1585:
1563:
1559:
1552:
1534:
1530:
1499:
1495:
1479:10.1002/ffo2.56
1458:
1454:
1423:
1419:
1388:
1384:
1377:
1354:
1344:
1340:
1307:(2): e1000217.
1293:
1286:
1243:
1232:
1205:
1196:
1185:
1169:
1165:
1154:
1150:
1139:
1135:
1124:
1120:
1087:
1083:
1079:
1064:Wideband delphi
1026:
972:
943:
923:decision-making
915:
907:Horizon Project
902:
896:
887:
870:
854:
833:side conference
825:main conference
731:
722:
706:economic trends
690:
685:
665:
657:
644:
627:
610:
533:
480:
454:
450:
435:
363:Critical design
310:Future workshop
210:Kardashev scale
205:Kondratiev wave
125:Futures studies
115:
104:
98:
95:
58:"Delphi method"
52:
50:
40:
28:
17:
12:
11:
5:
3443:
3433:
3432:
3427:
3422:
3417:
3400:
3399:
3397:
3396:
3391:
3386:
3385:
3384:
3374:
3369:
3364:
3359:
3354:
3353:
3352:
3341:
3339:
3335:
3334:
3332:
3331:
3325:
3324:
3323:
3313:
3308:
3303:
3298:
3293:
3288:
3283:
3278:
3273:
3268:
3262:
3257:
3251:
3246:
3241:
3236:
3231:
3222:
3217:
3212:
3207:
3201:
3196:
3190:
3184:
3178:
3173:
3168:
3163:
3158:
3153:
3148:
3143:
3137:
3135:
3129:
3128:
3126:
3125:
3120:
3115:
3114:
3113:
3103:
3098:
3093:
3092:
3091:
3089:Warning system
3081:
3076:
3075:
3074:
3069:
3064:
3052:
3051:
3050:
3045:
3040:
3035:
3034:
3033:
3028:
3018:
3013:
3008:
2996:
2995:
2994:
2989:
2984:
2974:
2973:
2972:
2967:
2962:
2957:
2944:
2942:
2936:
2935:
2932:
2931:
2929:
2928:
2923:
2918:
2913:
2907:
2905:
2901:
2900:
2898:
2897:
2892:
2889:Strategic risk
2885:
2884:
2883:
2878:
2873:
2868:
2863:
2858:
2856:Liquidity risk
2853:
2845:Financial risk
2841:
2840:
2839:
2834:
2829:
2824:
2819:
2817:Execution risk
2807:
2806:
2805:
2800:
2795:
2785:
2780:
2779:
2778:
2773:
2759:
2758:
2757:
2752:
2742:
2741:
2740:
2738:Political risk
2730:
2729:
2728:
2718:
2717:
2716:
2711:
2701:
2700:
2699:
2691:Business risks
2686:
2684:
2677:
2673:
2672:
2665:
2664:
2657:
2650:
2642:
2633:
2632:
2630:
2629:
2624:
2619:
2614:
2608:
2605:
2604:
2595:
2594:
2587:
2580:
2572:
2566:
2565:
2557:
2556:External links
2554:
2552:
2551:
2524:(3): 371–378.
2513:
2476:
2474:
2471:
2469:
2468:
2441:
2422:
2399:
2378:(2): 368–380.
2358:
2323:
2315:
2293:
2287:
2269:
2258:(2): 149–171.
2235:
2192:
2141:
2115:
2058:
2001:
1950:
1923:(4): 649–657.
1907:
1848:
1841:
1823:
1802:
1787:
1768:(2): 880–896.
1738:
1711:
1684:
1635:
1608:
1601:
1583:
1557:
1550:
1528:
1493:
1452:
1433:(4): 353–375.
1417:
1382:
1375:
1338:
1284:
1230:
1194:
1191:on 2008-05-20.
1183:
1163:
1148:
1133:
1118:
1097:(3): 458–467.
1080:
1078:
1075:
1074:
1073:
1066:
1061:
1056:
1054:Planning poker
1051:
1046:
1041:
1032:
1025:
1022:
1018:Deutsche Börse
1014:
1013:
1010:
1007:
1004:
997:
996:
993:
990:
971:
968:
942:
939:
914:
911:
898:Main article:
895:
892:
886:
883:
869:
866:
853:
850:
841:
840:
816:
797:
796:
793:
785:
784:
781:
778:
730:
727:
721:
718:
689:
686:
684:
681:
664:
661:
656:
653:
649:group dynamics
643:
640:
626:
623:
609:
606:
532:
529:
437:
436:
434:
433:
426:
419:
411:
408:
407:
406:
405:
400:
395:
390:
385:
380:
375:
370:
368:Design fiction
365:
357:
356:
345:
344:
343:
342:
340:Trend analysis
337:
332:
327:
322:
317:
312:
307:
302:
297:
292:
291:
290:
280:
275:
270:
265:
260:
252:
251:
245:
244:
243:
242:
237:
232:
227:
222:
217:
212:
207:
202:
197:
196:
195:
190:
185:
180:
175:
170:
162:
157:
152:
144:
143:
137:
136:
128:
127:
117:
116:
31:
29:
22:
15:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
3442:
3431:
3428:
3426:
3423:
3421:
3418:
3416:
3413:
3412:
3410:
3395:
3392:
3390:
3387:
3383:
3380:
3379:
3378:
3375:
3373:
3370:
3368:
3365:
3363:
3362:Risk appetite
3360:
3358:
3355:
3351:
3350:ISO/IEC 31010
3348:
3347:
3346:
3343:
3342:
3340:
3336:
3329:
3326:
3322:
3319:
3318:
3317:
3314:
3312:
3309:
3307:
3304:
3302:
3299:
3297:
3294:
3292:
3289:
3287:
3284:
3282:
3279:
3277:
3274:
3272:
3269:
3266:
3263:
3261:
3260:Decision tree
3258:
3255:
3252:
3250:
3247:
3245:
3242:
3240:
3237:
3235:
3232:
3230:
3226:
3223:
3221:
3218:
3216:
3213:
3211:
3208:
3205:
3202:
3200:
3197:
3194:
3191:
3188:
3185:
3182:
3179:
3177:
3174:
3172:
3171:Delphi method
3169:
3167:
3164:
3162:
3161:Brainstorming
3159:
3157:
3154:
3152:
3149:
3147:
3144:
3142:
3139:
3138:
3136:
3134:
3130:
3124:
3121:
3119:
3116:
3112:
3109:
3108:
3107:
3104:
3102:
3099:
3097:
3094:
3090:
3087:
3086:
3085:
3082:
3080:
3077:
3073:
3070:
3068:
3065:
3063:
3060:
3059:
3058:
3057:
3053:
3049:
3046:
3044:
3041:
3039:
3036:
3032:
3029:
3027:
3024:
3023:
3022:
3019:
3017:
3014:
3012:
3009:
3007:
3004:
3003:
3002:
3001:
2997:
2993:
2990:
2988:
2985:
2983:
2980:
2979:
2978:
2975:
2971:
2968:
2966:
2963:
2961:
2958:
2956:
2953:
2952:
2951:
2950:
2946:
2945:
2943:
2941:
2937:
2927:
2926:Vulnerability
2924:
2922:
2919:
2917:
2914:
2912:
2909:
2908:
2906:
2902:
2896:
2895:Residual risk
2893:
2891:
2890:
2886:
2882:
2881:Systemic risk
2879:
2877:
2874:
2872:
2869:
2867:
2864:
2862:
2859:
2857:
2854:
2852:
2849:
2848:
2847:
2846:
2842:
2838:
2835:
2833:
2830:
2828:
2825:
2823:
2820:
2818:
2815:
2814:
2813:
2812:
2808:
2804:
2801:
2799:
2796:
2794:
2791:
2790:
2789:
2788:Security risk
2786:
2784:
2783:Safety hazard
2781:
2777:
2774:
2772:
2769:
2768:
2767:
2766:External risk
2763:
2760:
2756:
2753:
2751:
2748:
2747:
2746:
2743:
2739:
2736:
2735:
2734:
2731:
2727:
2724:
2723:
2722:
2719:
2715:
2712:
2710:
2707:
2706:
2705:
2704:Personal risk
2702:
2698:
2695:
2694:
2693:
2692:
2688:
2687:
2685:
2681:
2678:
2674:
2670:
2663:
2658:
2656:
2651:
2649:
2644:
2643:
2640:
2628:
2625:
2623:
2620:
2618:
2617:Delphi method
2615:
2613:
2610:
2609:
2606:
2601:
2593:
2588:
2586:
2581:
2579:
2574:
2573:
2570:
2563:
2560:
2559:
2547:
2543:
2539:
2535:
2531:
2527:
2523:
2519:
2514:
2509:
2505:
2500:
2495:
2491:
2487:
2483:
2478:
2477:
2464:
2460:
2456:
2452:
2445:
2439:
2435:
2429:
2427:
2418:
2414:
2410:
2403:
2394:
2389:
2385:
2381:
2377:
2373:
2369:
2362:
2354:
2350:
2346:
2342:
2339:(1): 83–101.
2338:
2334:
2327:
2318:
2312:
2308:
2304:
2297:
2290:
2284:
2280:
2273:
2265:
2261:
2257:
2253:
2246:
2239:
2231:
2227:
2223:
2219:
2215:
2211:
2207:
2203:
2196:
2188:
2184:
2179:
2174:
2169:
2164:
2160:
2156:
2152:
2145:
2137:
2133:
2129:
2125:
2119:
2111:
2107:
2102:
2097:
2093:
2089:
2085:
2081:
2077:
2073:
2069:
2062:
2054:
2050:
2045:
2040:
2036:
2032:
2028:
2024:
2020:
2016:
2012:
2005:
1997:
1993:
1988:
1983:
1978:
1973:
1969:
1965:
1961:
1954:
1946:
1942:
1938:
1934:
1930:
1926:
1922:
1918:
1911:
1903:
1899:
1895:
1891:
1886:
1881:
1876:
1871:
1867:
1863:
1859:
1852:
1844:
1838:
1834:
1826:
1820:
1816:
1809:
1807:
1798:
1791:
1783:
1779:
1775:
1771:
1767:
1763:
1762:
1754:
1747:
1745:
1743:
1734:
1730:
1726:
1722:
1715:
1707:
1703:
1699:
1695:
1688:
1680:
1676:
1671:
1666:
1662:
1658:
1654:
1650:
1646:
1639:
1631:
1627:
1623:
1619:
1612:
1604:
1598:
1594:
1587:
1580:
1576:
1572:
1568:
1561:
1553:
1547:
1543:
1539:
1532:
1524:
1520:
1516:
1512:
1508:
1504:
1497:
1489:
1485:
1480:
1475:
1471:
1467:
1463:
1456:
1448:
1444:
1440:
1436:
1432:
1428:
1421:
1413:
1409:
1405:
1401:
1397:
1393:
1386:
1378:
1372:
1368:
1364:
1360:
1353:
1349:
1342:
1334:
1330:
1325:
1320:
1315:
1310:
1306:
1302:
1301:PLOS Medicine
1298:
1291:
1289:
1280:
1276:
1272:
1268:
1264:
1260:
1256:
1252:
1248:
1241:
1239:
1237:
1235:
1226:
1222:
1218:
1214:
1210:
1203:
1201:
1199:
1190:
1186:
1180:
1176:
1175:
1167:
1159:
1152:
1144:
1137:
1129:
1122:
1113:
1108:
1104:
1100:
1096:
1092:
1085:
1081:
1072:
1071:
1067:
1065:
1062:
1060:
1057:
1055:
1052:
1050:
1047:
1045:
1042:
1040:
1036:
1033:
1031:
1028:
1027:
1021:
1019:
1011:
1008:
1005:
1002:
1001:
1000:
994:
991:
988:
987:
986:
984:
979:
977:
967:
965:
959:
955:
952:
948:
938:
936:
930:
928:
924:
919:
910:
908:
901:
891:
882:
880:
875:
874:public health
865:
863:
859:
849:
846:
838:
834:
830:
826:
822:
817:
814:
813:
808:
804:
803:. These are:
802:
794:
790:
789:
788:
782:
779:
776:
772:
768:
764:
760:
756:
752:
748:
744:
740:
736:
735:
734:
726:
717:
715:
709:
707:
702:
700:
696:
680:
676:
674:
670:
660:
652:
650:
639:
637:
633:
622:
614:
605:
603:
598:
594:
592:
588:
584:
580:
576:
572:
568:
563:
561:
557:
553:
549:
544:
542:
538:
528:
524:
522:
518:
513:
507:
503:
501:
497:
493:
489:
485:
484:
475:
448:
444:
443:Delphi method
432:
427:
425:
420:
418:
413:
412:
410:
409:
404:
401:
399:
396:
394:
391:
389:
386:
384:
381:
379:
376:
374:
371:
369:
366:
364:
361:
360:
359:
358:
355:
351:
347:
346:
341:
338:
336:
335:Threatcasting
333:
331:
328:
326:
323:
321:
318:
316:
313:
311:
308:
306:
305:Futures wheel
303:
301:
298:
296:
293:
289:
286:
285:
284:
281:
279:
276:
274:
271:
269:
266:
264:
261:
259:
256:
255:
254:
253:
250:
247:
246:
241:
240:Swanson's law
238:
236:
233:
231:
228:
226:
223:
221:
218:
216:
213:
211:
208:
206:
203:
201:
198:
194:
191:
189:
186:
184:
181:
179:
176:
174:
171:
169:
166:
165:
163:
161:
158:
156:
153:
151:
148:
147:
146:
145:
142:
139:
138:
134:
130:
129:
126:
123:
122:
113:
110:
102:
91:
88:
84:
81:
77:
74:
70:
67:
63:
60: –
59:
55:
54:Find sources:
48:
44:
38:
37:
32:This article
30:
26:
21:
20:
3170:
3054:
3006:Supply chain
2998:
2976:
2947:
2887:
2843:
2832:Country risk
2809:
2787:
2771:Extreme risk
2721:Natural risk
2703:
2689:
2616:
2598:Qualitative
2521:
2517:
2489:
2485:
2454:
2450:
2444:
2433:
2417:the original
2412:
2402:
2375:
2371:
2361:
2336:
2332:
2326:
2306:
2302:
2296:
2278:
2272:
2255:
2251:
2238:
2205:
2201:
2195:
2158:
2154:
2144:
2127:
2118:
2075:
2071:
2061:
2018:
2014:
2004:
1967:
1963:
1953:
1920:
1916:
1910:
1885:11424/243850
1868:(1): 60–78.
1865:
1861:
1851:
1832:
1814:
1796:
1790:
1765:
1759:
1727:(3): 18–27.
1724:
1720:
1714:
1697:
1693:
1687:
1652:
1648:
1638:
1621:
1617:
1611:
1592:
1586:
1578:
1574:
1570:
1560:
1541:
1531:
1506:
1502:
1496:
1469:
1465:
1455:
1430:
1426:
1420:
1398:(9): 11–16.
1395:
1391:
1385:
1358:
1341:
1304:
1300:
1257:(1): 11–23.
1254:
1250:
1216:
1212:
1189:the original
1173:
1166:
1151:
1136:
1121:
1094:
1090:
1084:
1068:
1015:
998:
980:
973:
960:
956:
950:
944:
931:
920:
916:
903:
888:
871:
855:
842:
836:
832:
828:
824:
820:
798:
786:
774:
770:
766:
762:
758:
755:desirability
754:
750:
746:
742:
738:
732:
723:
710:
703:
691:
683:Applications
677:
672:
668:
666:
658:
645:
628:
619:
599:
595:
579:Project RAND
564:
545:
536:
534:
525:
508:
504:
491:
487:
446:
442:
440:
300:Future-proof
282:
105:
96:
86:
79:
72:
65:
53:
41:Please help
36:verification
33:
3415:Forecasting
3372:Rare events
3311:Risk Matrix
2921:Uncertainty
2904:Risk source
2876:Profit risk
2871:Market risk
2851:Credit risk
2709:Health risk
2600:forecasting
2372:IEEE Access
2021:(1): 4450.
927:e-democracy
837:Hyperdelphi
801:e-democracy
763:probability
759:feasibility
749:items, and
739:forecasting
669:facilitator
636:halo effect
593:procedure.
591:Imen-Delphi
583:Olaf Helmer
567:forecasting
554:. In 1944,
512:facilitator
496:forecasting
354:forecasting
348:Technology
258:Backcasting
235:Singularity
215:Moore's law
173:Mathematics
3409:Categories
3367:Hazard map
3306:Risk index
2837:Legal risk
2822:Model risk
2762:Macro risk
2492:(1): 1–8.
2161:(74): 74.
1970:(2): 144.
1721:Interfaces
1655:: 101401.
1509:: 119982.
1472:(1): e56.
1077:References
947:drug abuse
913:Variations
699:automation
383:Hype cycle
350:assessment
249:Techniques
99:March 2023
69:newspapers
3345:ISO 31000
3227:(FMEA) /
3176:Checklist
3101:Insurance
3072:Risk pool
2683:Risk type
2508:142873806
2457:: 47–64.
2230:215809096
2208:: 50–57.
1945:221622474
1902:239891445
1782:154784808
1523:216161197
1488:225273393
1404:0013-189X
1279:209519275
1219:: 17–20.
862:protocols
771:potential
535:The name
295:Foresight
3382:Security
3301:FN curve
2916:Conflict
2803:Accident
2546:28992039
2538:27960533
2353:53516828
2222:32302679
2187:26395179
2136:Archived
2110:36329272
2053:34272399
1996:28165380
1937:32912084
1894:34707258
1679:34430297
1649:MethodsX
1447:10745965
1350:(2001).
1348:Wright G
1346:Rowe G,
1333:20169112
1271:31887097
1024:See also
941:Accuracy
775:expected
548:Cold War
220:Peak oil
193:Universe
141:Concepts
3206:(SWIFT)
3195:(HACCP)
3189:(HAZOP)
3016:Quality
3011:Project
2750:IT risk
2602:methods
2380:Bibcode
2178:4579604
2101:9646517
2080:Bibcode
2044:8285468
2023:Bibcode
1987:5334698
1917:Thyroid
1670:8374446
1412:1176973
1324:2821895
767:desired
745:items,
552:warfare
531:History
183:Climate
164:Future
83:scholar
3330:(MCDA)
3256:(LOPA)
2911:Hazard
2798:Threat
2544:
2536:
2506:
2351:
2313:
2285:
2228:
2220:
2185:
2175:
2108:
2098:
2072:Nature
2051:
2041:
1994:
1984:
1943:
1935:
1900:
1892:
1839:
1821:
1780:
1677:
1667:
1599:
1548:
1521:
1486:
1445:
1410:
1402:
1373:
1331:
1321:
1277:
1269:
1181:
751:option
634:" or "
537:Delphi
521:median
283:Delphi
85:
78:
71:
64:
56:
3267:(HRA)
3229:FMECA
3183:(PHA)
3067:Hedge
2542:S2CID
2504:S2CID
2349:S2CID
2305:[
2248:(PDF)
2226:S2CID
1941:S2CID
1898:S2CID
1778:S2CID
1756:(PDF)
1577:(2).
1519:S2CID
1484:S2CID
1443:S2CID
1408:JSTOR
1355:(PDF)
1275:S2CID
1035:DARPA
792:time;
743:issue
168:Earth
90:JSTOR
76:books
3357:COSO
2534:PMID
2311:ISBN
2283:ISBN
2218:PMID
2183:PMID
2106:PMID
2049:PMID
1992:PMID
1933:PMID
1890:PMID
1837:ISBN
1819:ISBN
1675:PMID
1597:ISBN
1546:ISBN
1400:ISSN
1371:ISBN
1329:PMID
1267:PMID
1251:HERD
1179:ISBN
925:and
860:and
747:goal
517:mean
441:The
352:and
178:Race
62:news
2965:GRC
2526:doi
2494:doi
2459:doi
2388:doi
2341:doi
2260:doi
2210:doi
2206:124
2173:PMC
2163:doi
2096:PMC
2088:doi
2076:611
2039:PMC
2031:doi
1982:PMC
1972:doi
1925:doi
1880:hdl
1870:doi
1770:doi
1729:doi
1702:doi
1665:PMC
1657:doi
1626:doi
1511:doi
1507:154
1474:doi
1435:doi
1363:doi
1319:PMC
1309:doi
1259:doi
1221:doi
1107:hdl
1099:doi
1037:'s
519:or
502:.
492:ETE
490:or
483:-fy
481:DEL
445:or
398:TRL
378:FTA
45:by
3411::
2764:/
2755:AI
2540:.
2532:.
2522:22
2520:.
2502:.
2490:13
2488:.
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2130:.
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2070:.
2047:.
2037:.
2029:.
2019:12
2017:.
2013:.
1990:.
1980:.
1968:14
1966:.
1962:.
1939:.
1931:.
1921:31
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1878:.
1866:19
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1860:.
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2090::
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