1036: estimated that if we took all the knowledge that mankind had accumulated and transmitted by the year One CE as equal to one unit of information, it probably took about 1500 years (or until the sixteenth century) for that amount of knowledge to double. The next doubling of knowledge from two to four 'knowledge units' took only 250 years, until about 1750 CE. By 1900, one hundred and fifty years later, knowledge had doubled again to 8 units. The observed speed at which information doubled was getting faster and faster. In modern times, exponential knowledge progressions therefore change at an ever-increasing rate. Depending on the progression, this tends to lead toward explosive growth at some point. A simple exponential curve that represents this accelerating change phenomenon could be modeled by a
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endless continuation of this process. On the contrary, in many cases this means an early exit to the plateau of speed. The processes occurring in natural science allow us to suggest that the observed picture of accelerating scientific and technological progress, after some time (in physical processes, as a rule, is short) will be replaced by a slowdown and a complete stop. Despite the possible termination / attenuation of the acceleration of the progress of science and technology in the foreseeable future, progress itself, and as a result, social transformations, will not stop or even slow down - it will continue with the achieved (possibly huge) speed, which has become constant.
77:
951:, more complex life forms have been evolving exponentially faster, with shorter and shorter intervals between the emergence of radically new life forms, such as human beings, who have the capacity to engineer (i.e. intentionally design with efficiency) a new trait which replaces relatively blind evolutionary mechanisms of selection for efficiency. By extension, the rate of technical progress amongst humans has also been exponentially increasing: as we discover more effective ways to do things, we also discover more effective ways to learn, e.g.
869:
speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to the
Singularity—technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.
963:, instruments of observation, tallying devices, mechanical calculators, computers; each of these major advances in our ability to account for information occurs increasingly close to the previous. Already within the past sixty years, life in the industrialized world has changed almost beyond recognition except for living memories from the first half of the 20th century. This pattern will culminate in unimaginable technological progress in the 21st century, leading to a singularity. Kurzweil elaborates on his views in his books
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further along in its understanding of the relation of humans to the cosmos." He noted: "The waiting period between the mindsteps is getting shorter. One can't help noticing the acceleration." Hawkins' empirical 'mindstep equation' quantified this, and gave dates for (to him) future mindsteps. The date of the next mindstep (5; the series begins at 0) he cited as 2021, with two further, successively closer mindsteps in 2045 and 2051, until the limit of the series in 2053. His speculations ventured beyond the technological:
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modern world is the result of a web of interconnected events, each one consisting of a person or group acting for reasons of their own motivations (e.g., profit, curiosity, religious) with no concept of the final, modern result to which the actions of either them or their contemporaries would lead. The interplay of the results of these isolated events is what drives history and innovation, and is also the main focus of the series and its sequels.
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events and innovations increases. This increase in possible connections causes the process of innovation to not only continue, but to accelerate. Burke poses the question of what happens when this rate of innovation, or more importantly change itself, becomes too much for the average person to handle, and what this means for individual power, liberty, and privacy.
1019:. The new agricultural economy doubled every 900 years, a remarkable increase. In the current era, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, the world's economic output doubles every fifteen years, sixty times faster than during the agricultural era. If the rise of superhuman intelligence causes a similar revolution, argues
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configurations of Space, Time, Energy, and Matter (STEM efficiency and density, or STEM "compression"). At the physical limit, this developmental process of accelerating change leads to black hole density organizations, a conclusion also reached by studies of the ultimate physical limits of computation in the universe.
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Epoch, but a general and predictable developmental feature of the universe. The physical processes that generate an acceleration such as Moore's law are positive feedback loops giving rise to exponential or superexponential technological change. These dynamics lead to increasingly efficient and dense
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The mindsteps... appear to have certain things in common—a new and unfolding human perspective, related inventions in the area of memes and communications, and a long formulative waiting period before the next mindstep comes along. None of the mindsteps can be said to have been truly anticipated, and
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or world views. He identified five distinct mindsteps in human history, and the technology that accompanied these "new world views": the invention of imagery, writing, mathematics, printing, the telescope, rocket, radio, TV, computer... "Each one takes the collective mind closer to reality, one stage
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The second and third corollaries are explored most in the introductory and concluding episodes, and they represent the downside of an interconnected history. If history progresses because of the synergistic interaction of past events and innovations, then as history does progress, the number of these
868:
An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century—it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The 'returns,' such as chip
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proposed "The Law of
Accelerating Returns", according to which the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems (including but not limited to the growth of technologies) tends to increase exponentially. He gave further focus to this issue in a 2001 essay entitled "The Law of Accelerating
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explores an "Alternative View of Change" (the subtitle of the series) that rejects the conventional linear and teleological view of historical progress. Burke contends that one cannot consider the development of any particular piece of the modern world in isolation. Rather, the entire gestalt of the
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pattern in the complexity of integrated semiconductor circuits. Moravec extends this to include technologies from long before the integrated circuit to future forms of technology. Moravec outlines a timeline and a scenario in which robots will evolve into a new series of artificial species, starting
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of the sphere of knowledge, which every year is taking in a larger percentage of people as time goes on." And later on, "It is the argument with which I began, that a mighty change having come about in fifty years, and our pace of development having immensely accelerated, our sons and grandsons are
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Burke also explores three corollaries to his initial thesis. The first is that, if history is driven by individuals who act only on what they know at the time, and not because of any idea as to where their actions will eventually lead, then predicting the future course of technological progress is
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leads to the idea that advanced intelligent life reconfigures itself into a black hole. Such advanced life forms would be interested in inner space, rather than outer space and interstellar expansion. They would thus in some way transcend reality, not be observable and it would be a solution to
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In the natural sciences, it is typical that processes characterized by exponential acceleration in their initial stages go into the saturation phase. This clearly makes it possible to realize that if an increase with acceleration is observed over a certain period of time, this does not mean an
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called the "transcension hypothesis". Another solution is that the black holes we observe could actually be interpreted as intelligent super-civilizations feeding on stars, or "stellivores". This dynamics of evolution and development is an invitation to study the universe itself as evolving,
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One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not
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progress. Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, according to
Kurzweil, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He cites numerous past examples of this to substantiate his assertions. He predicts that such
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merely conjecture. Therefore, if we are astonished by the connections Burke is able to weave among past events, then we will be equally surprised to what the events of today eventually will lead, especially events we were not even aware of at the time.
798:(1986), set in a world of rapidly accelerating progress leading to the emergence of more and more sophisticated technologies separated by shorter and shorter time intervals, until a point beyond human comprehension is reached. His subsequent
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have and will continue to become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history". He believes the Law of
Accelerating Returns implies that a
686:, and also plotting the exponentially increasing computational power of the brains of animals in evolutionary history. Extrapolating these trends, he speculates about a coming "mind fire" of rapidly expanding
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most were resisted at the early stages. In looking to the future we may equally be caught unawares. We may have to grapple with the presently inconceivable, with mind-stretching discoveries and concepts.
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Dramatic changes in the rate of economic growth have occurred in the past because of some technological advancement. Based on population growth, the economy doubled every 250,000 years from the
625:. In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.
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and
Jonathan Huebner have argued—each from different perspectives—that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining.
920:. It is a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore's law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology, when really it only concerns semiconductor circuits. Many
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in recent history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future and may or may not be accompanied by equally profound social and cultural change.
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noted, "But it is not merely in the number of facts or sorts of knowledge that progress lies: it is still more in the geometric ratio of sophistication, in the
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developing. If the universe is a kind of superorganism, it may possibly tend to reproduce, naturally or artificially, with intelligent life playing a role.
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Smart, J. M. (2009). "Evo Devo
Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.". In S. J. Dick; Mark L. Lupisella (eds.).
1586:"The Transcension Hypothesis: Sufficiently advanced civilizations invariably leave our universe, and implications for METI and SETI"
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1933:
Crane, Louis (2010). "Possible
Implications of the Quantum Theory of Gravity: An Introduction to the Meduso-Anthropic Principle".
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Town
Planning Conference (1910 : London, England); Royal Institute of British Architects (8 July 2018).
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still use the term "Moore's law" to describe ideas like those put forth by
Moravec, Kurzweil and others.
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popularized his ideas about exponentially accelerating technological change in the science fiction novel
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2264:"Accelerating socio-technological evolution: from ephemeralization and stigmergy to the Global Brain"
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1482:. Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802. pp. 201–295. Archived from
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1023:, then one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis.
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Forging Global
Fordism: Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and the Contest over the Industrial Order
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1986:
Harrison, E. R. (1995). "The Natural Selection of Universes Containing Intelligent Life".
8:
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to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of
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Steffen, Will; Broadgate, Wendy; Deutsch, Lisa; Gaffney, Owen; Ludwig, Cornelia (2015).
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Nagy, BĂ©la; Farmer, J. Doyne; Trancik, Jessika E.; Gonzales, John Paul (October 2011).
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Returns". In it, Kurzweil, after Moravec, argued for extending Moore's Law to describe
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power unfathomable by mere humans. His already mentioned influential 1993 paper on the
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History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies
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2052:. Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802. pp. 201–295.
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1333:] (DVD). United Kingdom: Ambrose Video Publishing, Inc. Event occurs at 42:00.
1152:. London : Royal Institute of British Architects – via Internet Archive.
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1810:. Science and Fiction. Cham: Springer International Publishing. pp. 196–200.
1785:. Science and Fiction. Cham: Springer International Publishing. pp. 203–206.
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1048:: the rate at which technology progression surpasses human biological evolution.
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In a series of published articles from 1974 to 1979, and then in his 1988 book
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2188:"The 21st Century Singularity and its Big History Implications: A re-analysis"
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1956:
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The Law of Accelerating Returns has in many ways altered public perception of
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will occur before the end of the 21st century, around 2045. The essay begins:
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The Beginning and the End: The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological Perspective
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passing through exponentially accelerating developmental stages ending in a
678:, published in 1998, Moravec further considers the implications of evolving
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1040:. This fast rate of knowledge doubling leads up to the basic proposed
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10.1002/(sici)1099-0526(200001/02)5:3<34::aid-cplx7>3.0.co;2-8
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Perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history
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2013:
Gardner, J. N. (2000). "The Selfish Biocosm: complexity as cosmology".
1947:
1384:"To the Question of the Limits of Progress: Is a Singularity Possible?"
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2069:(Submitted manuscript). The Frontiers Collection. New York: Springer.
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Mass use of inventions: Years until use by a quarter of US population
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1473:"Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture."
808:(1992) starts with an imaginative description of the evolution of a
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2279:. Rethinking Globalizations. London: Routledge. pp. 284–335.
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2352:: singularity predictions as a side-effect of memory compression?
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1833:"Stellivore extraterrestrials? Binary stars as living systems"
1808:
If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?
1783:
If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?
1407:
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Globalization as evolutionary process: Modeling global change
1652:
Lloyd, S. (2000). "Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation".
1509:"Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology"
1209:
http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html
1410:"The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration"
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An updated version of Moore's Law over 120 years (based on
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Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context
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Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context
1101: – Timeline laid out according to a logarithmic scale
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682:, generalizing Moore's law to technologies predating the
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going to demand and get results that would stagger us."
601:
In 1910, during the town planning conference of London,
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Pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets
1109:
Pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets
1717:
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology
1325:
James Burke (Actor), Mick Jackson (Director) (1978).
1107: – American ethnobotanist and mystic (1946–2000)
1241:"When will computer hardware match the human brain?"
1081: – Use of conflict to bring about social change
1075: – 2005 science fiction novel by Charles Stross
2361:
The Royal Mail Coach: Metaphor for a Changing World
2146:
Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes
1988:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society
163:. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed.
2242:, and Victor C. de Munck. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006.
2158:
1736:Ćirković, Milan M. (2008). "Against the Empire".
985:Accelerating change may not be restricted to the
2584:
2273:; Devezas, Tessaleno; Thompson, William (eds.).
1898:Smolin, Lee (1992). "Did the universe evolve?".
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1141:
1139:
947:According to Kurzweil, since the beginning of
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2130:IEEE Spectrum Special Report: The Singularity
1738:Journal of the British Interplanetary Society
1226:Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society
1116: – Concept of a false version of reality
905:). The seven most recent data points are all
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1122: – Creator of Pretty Good Privacy (PGP)
741:
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1516:Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1478:. In S. J. Dick; Mark L. Lupisella (eds.).
1213:
1162:: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (
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884:Moore's Law expanded to other technologies.
64:Learn how and when to remove these messages
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632:wrote in reference to a conversation with
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784:Vinge's exponentially accelerating change
241:Learn how and when to remove this message
223:Learn how and when to remove this message
121:Learn how and when to remove this message
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1985:
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995:search for extraterrestrial intelligence
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676:Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind
665:to make predictions about the future of
84:This article includes a list of general
2012:
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761:, dramatic and irreversible changes to
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2421:Differential technological development
2328:, TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl.
2254:Essay: The Law of Accelerating Returns
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824:compactly summarizes the basic ideas.
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2221:TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl,
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2356:Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends
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161:adding citations to reliable sources
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29:
2510:Future-oriented technology analysis
1245:Journal of Evolution and Technology
931:Computer power grows exponentially.
24:
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1187:Southern Illinois University Press
1095: – 1970 book by Alvin Toffler
1006:
657:, computer scientist and futurist
90:it lacks sufficient corresponding
25:
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2319:
1307:from the original on 16 June 2006
1281:from the original on 15 June 2006
707:Connections (British documentary)
45:This article has multiple issues.
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2337:The Law of Accelerating Returns
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2006:
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1365:The Law of Accelerating Returns
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148:needs additional citations for
53:or discuss these issues on the
18:The Law of Accelerating Returns
2126:"Economics Of The Singularity"
1528:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.006
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753:(HarperCollins, August 1983),
13:
1:
2537:Technology in science fiction
2346:Is History Converging? Again?
2215:
1900:Classical and Quantum Gravity
1879:"Evo Devo Universe Community"
1345:The Age of Spiritual Machines
1301:"Robot Predictions Evolution"
1222:"Tribute to John von Neumann"
1051:
1032:, futurist and inventor
977:Limits of accelerating change
965:The Age of Spiritual Machines
955:, numbers, written language,
838:The Age of Spiritual Machines
2157:Fuller, Buckminster (1981).
1299:Moravec, Hans (April 2004).
1220:Ulam, Stanislaw (May 1958).
993:Applying this vision to the
7:
1331:Yesterday, Tomorrow and You
1273:Moravec, Hans (June 1993).
1063:
830:Law of Accelerating Returns
669:. Moore's law describes an
520:Science fiction prototyping
452:Reference class forecasting
10:
2639:
2542:Technology readiness level
2478:Technological unemployment
2186:Korotayev, Andrey (2018).
704:
2560:
2525:Technological singularity
2485:Technological convergence
2403:
2093:10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1
1957:10.1007/s10699-010-9182-y
1920:10.1088/0264-9381/9/1/016
1721:. Penguin Books. p.
1046:technological singularity
862:technological singularity
822:technological singularity
757:elucidated his notion of
717:(1978)—and sequels
692:explosion of intelligence
2332:Kurzweil's official site
1437:10.1177/2053019614564785
1130:
292:Global catastrophic risk
2490:Technological evolution
2463:Exploratory engineering
2252:Kurzweil, Ray (2001),
1417:The Anthropocene Review
1182:Nine Chains to the Moon
1087: – Economic theory
970:The Singularity Is Near
751:Mindsteps to the Cosmos
505:Exploratory engineering
395:Causal layered analysis
105:more precise citations.
2500:Technology forecasting
2495:Technological paradigm
2468:Proactionary principle
2205:10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2320
2192:Journal of Big History
1935:Foundations of Science
1806:Webb, Stephen (2015).
1781:Webb, Stephen (2015).
1239:Moravec, Hans (1998).
1228:. 64, nr 3, part 2: 5.
1026:In his 1981 book
944:
939:Exponential growth in
932:
871:
780:
773:
643:
623:industrial development
589:nature of the rate of
332:Historical materialism
2613:Sociological theories
2608:History of technology
2426:Disruptive innovation
2397:Emerging technologies
1713:Kurzweil, R. (2005).
1584:Smart, J. M. (2012).
1471:Smart, J. M. (2009).
1199:R. Buckminster Fuller
1189:1963 pp. 276–79.
1177:R. Buckminster Fuller
1034:R. Buckminster Fuller
938:
930:
866:
778:
768:
674:around 2030–2040. In
638:
579:history of technology
410:Cross impact analysis
172:"Accelerating change"
2618:Technological change
2473:Technological change
2416:Collingridge dilemma
1204:Synergetics (Fuller)
1099:Logarithmic timeline
1017:Neolithic Revolution
850:of diverse forms of
805:A Fire Upon the Deep
795:Marooned in Realtime
694:predicted by Vinge.
617:introduced the word
591:technological change
157:improve this article
2530:Technology scouting
2505:Accelerating change
2350:Juergen Schmidhuber
2326:Accelerating Change
2223:Accelerating Change
2085:2013PhDT.........2V
2027:2000Cmplx...5c..34G
2000:1995QJRAS..36..193H
1912:1992CQGra...9..173S
1849:2016AcAau.128..251V
1760:2008JBIS...61..246C
1676:2000Natur.406.1047L
1660:(6799): 1047–1054.
1602:2012AcAau..78...55S
1429:2015AntRv...2...81S
1275:"The Age of Robots"
1085:Diminishing returns
583:accelerating change
535:Technology scouting
282:Accelerating change
2547:Technology roadmap
2260:Heylighen, Francis
2063:Vidal, C. (2014).
1831:Vidal, C. (2016).
1044: of the
945:
933:
848:exponential growth
788:The mathematician
781:
684:integrated circuit
680:robot intelligence
671:exponential growth
615:Buckminster Fuller
607:geometric widening
597:Early observations
525:Speculative design
405:Consensus forecast
400:Chain-linked model
362:Resource depletion
2580:
2579:
2296:978-1-135-97764-1
2286:978-0-415-77361-4
2102:978-3-319-05061-4
1837:Acta Astronautica
1817:978-3-319-13235-8
1792:978-3-319-13235-8
1590:Acta Astronautica
1114:Simulated reality
1038:doubling function
961:scientific method
835:In his 1999 book
810:superintelligence
755:Gerald S. Hawkins
711:In his TV series
688:superintelligence
571:
570:
457:Scenario planning
320:Space exploration
251:
250:
243:
233:
232:
225:
207:
131:
130:
123:
68:
16:(Redirected from
2630:
2568:
2567:
2515:Horizon scanning
2431:Ephemeralization
2390:
2383:
2376:
2367:
2366:
2308:Link, Stefan J.
2290:
2271:Modelski, George
2268:
2240:Andrey Korotayev
2210:
2209:
2207:
2183:
2177:
2176:
2164:
2154:
2148:
2143:
2142:
2141:
2132:, archived from
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2004:
2003:
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1753:
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1710:
1704:
1703:
1684:10.1038/35023282
1669:
1667:quant-ph/9908043
1649:
1643:
1642:
1640:
1639:
1630:. Archived from
1613:
1581:
1572:
1571:
1569:
1568:
1562:
1556:. Archived from
1539:
1522:(8): 1356–1364.
1513:
1504:
1498:
1497:
1495:
1494:
1488:
1477:
1468:
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1458:
1448:
1414:
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1399:
1398:
1396:
1395:
1386:. Archived from
1379:
1373:
1372:, March 7, 2001.
1361:
1355:
1347:, Viking, 1999,
1341:
1335:
1334:
1322:
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1312:
1296:
1290:
1289:
1287:
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1270:
1264:
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1261:
1260:
1251:. Archived from
1236:
1230:
1229:
1217:
1211:
1196:
1190:
1174:
1168:
1167:
1161:
1153:
1143:
1125:
1110:
895:
881:
742:Gerald Hawkins'
634:John von Neumann
619:ephemeralization
585:is the observed
563:
556:
549:
462:Systems analysis
447:Horizon scanning
420:Real-time Delphi
357:Population cycle
287:Cashless society
267:
253:
252:
246:
239:
228:
221:
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214:
208:
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165:
141:
133:
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101:this article by
92:inline citations
79:
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60:
38:
37:
30:
21:
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2627:
2623:Linear theories
2598:Futures studies
2583:
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2322:
2305:
2303:Further reading
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2011:
2007:
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1611:10.1.1.695.2737
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1501:
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1256:
1255:on 15 June 2006
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1193:
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1133:
1128:
1123:
1120:Zimmerman's law
1108:
1079:Accelerationism
1066:
1054:
1009:
1007:Other estimates
1000:Fermi's paradox
979:
914:
913:
912:
911:
910:
896:
887:
886:
885:
882:
857:paradigm shifts
833:
802:-winning novel
786:
747:
709:
703:
690:similar to the
667:artificial life
651:
599:
575:futures studies
567:
495:Critical design
442:Future workshop
342:Kardashev scale
337:Kondratiev wave
257:Futures studies
247:
236:
235:
234:
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209:
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97:Please help to
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2124:Robin Hanson,
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2005:
1994:(3): 193–203.
1978:
1948:hep-th/9402104
1941:(4): 369–373.
1925:
1906:(1): 173–191.
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1382:Shestakova I.
1374:
1356:
1343:Ray Kurzweil,
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1105:Novelty theory
1102:
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1058:Theodore Modis
1053:
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1015:era until the
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705:Main article:
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696:
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630:Stanislaw Ulam
603:Daniel Burnham
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2603:Social change
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2552:Transhumanism
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2257:
2255:
2251:
2249:
2248:5-484-01002-0
2245:
2241:
2237:
2236:Leonid Grinin
2233:
2232:Peter Turchin
2229:
2226:
2224:
2220:
2219:
2206:
2201:
2198:(3): 71–118.
2197:
2193:
2189:
2182:
2174:
2168:
2163:
2162:
2161:Critical Path
2153:
2147:
2136:on 2011-08-11
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2016:
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1997:
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1681:
1677:
1673:
1668:
1663:
1659:
1655:
1648:
1634:on 2013-09-22
1633:
1629:
1625:
1621:
1617:
1612:
1607:
1603:
1599:
1595:
1591:
1587:
1580:
1578:
1563:on 2014-04-10
1559:
1555:
1551:
1547:
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1538:
1537:1721.1/105411
1533:
1529:
1525:
1521:
1517:
1510:
1503:
1489:on 2017-01-24
1485:
1481:
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1456:
1452:
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1434:
1430:
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1418:
1411:
1404:
1390:on 2019-11-01
1389:
1385:
1378:
1371:
1367:
1366:
1360:
1354:
1350:
1346:
1340:
1332:
1328:
1327:Connections 1
1321:
1306:
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1080:
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1073:
1069:
1068:
1061:
1059:
1049:
1047:
1043:
1039:
1035:
1031:
1030:
1029:Critical Path
1024:
1022:
1018:
1014:
1004:
1001:
996:
991:
988:
983:
974:
972:
971:
966:
962:
958:
954:
950:
942:
941:supercomputer
937:
929:
925:
923:
919:
908:
904:
901:
894:
880:
870:
865:
863:
858:
853:
852:technological
849:
844:
840:
839:
831:
825:
823:
819:
815:
811:
807:
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801:
797:
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764:
760:
756:
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745:
739:
735:
731:
728:
725:(1997)—
724:
720:
716:
715:
708:
701:
695:
693:
689:
685:
681:
677:
672:
668:
664:
660:
656:
655:Mind Children
649:
648:Mind Children
642:
637:
635:
631:
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611:
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592:
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584:
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467:Threatcasting
465:
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450:
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443:
440:
438:
437:Futures wheel
435:
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403:
401:
398:
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382:
379:
378:
373:
372:Swanson's law
370:
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191:
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184:
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177:
174: –
173:
169:
168:Find sources:
162:
158:
152:
151:
146:This article
144:
140:
135:
134:
125:
122:
114:
104:
100:
94:
93:
87:
82:
73:
72:
67:
65:
58:
57:
52:
51:
46:
41:
32:
31:
19:
2569:
2504:
2456:Robot ethics
2341:Ray Kurzweil
2309:
2275:
2230:. Edited by
2195:
2191:
2181:
2160:
2152:
2138:, retrieved
2134:the original
2129:
2119:
2065:
2058:
2049:
2043:
2021:(3): 34–45.
2018:
2014:
2008:
1991:
1987:
1981:
1938:
1934:
1928:
1903:
1899:
1893:
1882:. Retrieved
1873:
1840:
1836:
1826:
1807:
1801:
1782:
1776:
1741:
1737:
1731:
1716:
1708:
1657:
1653:
1647:
1636:. Retrieved
1632:the original
1593:
1589:
1565:. Retrieved
1558:the original
1519:
1515:
1502:
1491:. Retrieved
1484:the original
1479:
1423:(1): 81–98.
1420:
1416:
1403:
1392:. Retrieved
1388:the original
1377:
1370:Ray Kurzweil
1364:
1359:
1344:
1339:
1330:
1326:
1320:
1309:. Retrieved
1294:
1283:. Retrieved
1268:
1257:. Retrieved
1253:the original
1248:
1244:
1234:
1225:
1215:
1202:
1194:
1180:
1172:
1149:Transactions
1148:
1092:Future Shock
1091:
1071:
1055:
1028:
1025:
1021:Robin Hanson
1010:
992:
987:Anthropocene
984:
980:
968:
964:
946:
915:
867:
843:Ray Kurzweil
836:
834:
829:
814:transcendent
803:
793:
790:Vernor Vinge
787:
769:
758:
750:
749:In his book
748:
743:
736:
732:
723:ConnectionsÂł
722:
719:Connections²
718:
712:
710:
699:
675:
661:generalizes
659:Hans Moravec
654:
652:
647:
639:
627:
612:
600:
582:
572:
432:Future-proof
281:
237:
219:
210:
200:
193:
186:
179:
167:
155:Please help
150:verification
147:
117:
108:
89:
61:
54:
48:
47:Please help
44:
2520:Moore's law
2451:Neuroethics
2446:Cyberethics
1843:: 251–256.
1072:Accelerando
1013:Paleolithic
918:Moore's law
907:Nvidia GPUs
828:Kurzweil's
727:James Burke
721:(1994) and
714:Connections
700:Connections
663:Moore's law
587:exponential
486:forecasting
480:Technology
390:Backcasting
367:Singularity
347:Moore's law
305:Mathematics
103:introducing
2587:Categories
2411:Automation
2216:References
2172:0312174918
2140:2020-04-23
2015:Complexity
1884:2018-04-25
1638:2014-01-04
1567:2013-07-09
1493:2017-03-15
1446:1885/66463
1394:2019-11-01
1311:2006-06-23
1285:2006-06-23
1259:2006-06-23
1052:Criticisms
1042:hypothesis
957:philosophy
900:Kurzweil's
818:omnipotent
800:Hugo award
646:Moravec's
515:Hype cycle
482:assessment
381:Techniques
213:March 2023
183:newspapers
86:references
50:improve it
2593:Evolution
2441:Bioethics
2111:118419030
2076:1301.1648
1973:118422569
1965:1233-1821
1865:0094-5765
1768:0007-084X
1751:0805.1821
1628:0094-5765
1606:CiteSeerX
1596:: 55–68.
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