210:"The Navy's Special Projects Office, charged with developing the Polaris-Submarine weapon system and the Fleet Ballistic Missile capability, has developed a statistical technique for measuring and forecasting progress in research and development programs. This Program Evaluation and Review Technique (code-named PERT) is applied as a decision-making tool designed to save time in achieving end-objectives, and is of particular interest to those engaged in research and development programs for which time is a critical factor.
135:. In January, 1958, the SPO initiated a special study to determine whether computers could be used in planning and controlling the Polaris program, and on January 27, 1958, the SPO directed a group to undertake the task of formulating the PERT technique. The goal of the group was to determine whether improved planning and evaluating research and development work methods could be devised to apply to the Polaris program, which involved 250 prime
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However, despite the merits of these procedures, additional information was needed to assess the validity of plans and schedules, to measure research and development progress where the standard measure-money spent—did not necessarily correlate with progress, and to predict the probability of meeting
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PERT, then, is developed around a time sequence flow diagram. MileStones representing important events in the life of the project are selected and linked graphically with arrows to portray interdependencies. Actual work activity is represented by the arrows joining the milestones, and the resulting
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The concept of PERT was developed by an operations research team staffed with representatives from the
Operations Research Department of Booz, Allen and Hamilton; the Evaluation Office of the Lockheed Missile Systems Division; and the Program Evaluation Branch, Special Projects Office, of the
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The new technique takes recognition of three factors that influence successful achievement of research and development program objectives: time, resources, and technical performance specifications. PERT employs time as the variable that reflects planned resource applications and performance
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specifications. With units of time as a common denominator, PERT quantifies knowledge about the uncertainties involved in developmental programs requiring effort at the edge of, or beyond, current knowledge of the subject – effort for which little or no previous experience exists...
235:"... modern system management technique have enabled us to reduce the R&D cycle, for major weapon systems, from 7-10 years to 3 years; we are confident that the cycle duration will be reduced even further as the full potential of the PERT approach is realized."
175:, it was decided to use time as a common denominator in the system. A significant change in resources or technology always means a significant change in time, and in the defense industry cost is often less important than time and may be dependent on time.
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About the organizational context and Fazar's performance
Frederick I. Ordway (2014) once more summarized the circumstances in which PERT saw the first light of day and the participants involved :
151:"In 1956, a Special Projects Office (SPO) was organized by the Department of the Navy to manage the Polaris program. Numerous management tools, some old, some newly developed, were used by SPO.
311:
Fazar, Willard. "Federal information communities: the systems approach." Paper delivered at the 1966 Annual
Meeting of the American Political Science Association. 1966.
298:, Roseboom, J. H., Clark, C. E., & Fazar, W. (1959). Application of a technique for research and development program evaluation. Operations research, 7(5), 646–669.
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objectives. In
February, 1958, a team was organized by SPO to produce a system to do these things. The team consisted of personnel from SPO, consultants from
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program did not provide certain information essential to effective program evaluation. In particular, they did not furnish the following:
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The search for a better management system continued through the fall of 1957. At this time, the Navy was cognizant of the development of
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Times necessary to complete each task between events are estimated in such a way as to give an appropriate measure of uncertainty. The
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61:, and did industrial price research for the Government. In World War II he served in the army, and afterwards joined the
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Fazar summarized the development of the
Program evaluation and review technique in his own words, stating:
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171:"...Due to the urgent nature of the Polaris program, and the particular importance of time in the
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Some basic concepts were introduced by Fazar and his team, as Ordway (2014) further explained:
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flow diagram that is structured around these important events is called the PERT network.
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After graduation Fazar started his career in industry, and in his early career worked at
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Fazar (1959), cited in: Möhring, Rolf H. "D. Ray
Fulkerson and Project Scheduling."
109:"... it was clear that the various management tools available for management of the
105:. James Jerome O'Brien (1969) summarized, the events that lead to that development:
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Appraisal of the validity of existing plans in terms of meeting program objectives
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163:. Willard Fazar, credited with guiding PERT's development, was team manager...
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United States. Congress. House. Committee on
Government Operations (1962),
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Systems
Development and Management: June 21–29, July 31, August 15, 1962.
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As member of the
Polaris management team, Fazar in 1961 was cited in the
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in
Washington, D. C., where he was appointed chief of the food section.
30:, and author. He is known as one of co-inventors, and key-developers of
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Fazar, Willard. "The origin of PERT." The Controller 30 (1962): 598.
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Fazar, Willard. "Program evaluation and review technique."
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Measurement of progress achieved against program objectives
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University of Texas. Bureau of Business Research (1966),
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Program Evaluation Research Task, Summary Report, Phase 2
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Program Evaluation Research Task, Summary Report, Phase 1
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Measurement of potential for meeting program objectives
22:(March 16, 1915 - September 13, 1997) was an American
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journal explaining the power of PERT. He had stated:
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as director of the program evaluation branch of the
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Washington, D.C., Government Printing Office, 1958.
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Washington, D.C., Government Printing Office, 1958.
340:James Jerome O'Brien, Fredric L. Plotnick (1999),
274:Progress Reporting in the Special Projects Office.
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386:p. 73; cited in O'Brien and Plotnick (1999, 7).
247:The Regulation and Taxation of the Motor Truck,
68:In 1956 Fazar was appointed by US Navy Admiral
46:, and obtained his Ms in Agriculture in 1936.
331:U.S. Government Printing Office, 1962. p. 582
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26:, Head of the Program Evaluation Branch at
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413:Documenta Mathematica · Extra Volume ISMP
400:Advances in Space Science and Technology.
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42:Born in 1915, Fazar studied economics at
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356:Cornell University. "News of Alumni,"
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371:Studies in Personnel and Management.
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78:U.S. Bureau of the Budget
262:U.S. Dept. of the Navy.
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218:Department of the Navy."
99:Special Projects Office
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425:Missiles and Rockets.
402:Vol. 6, 2014. p. 221.
398:Frederick I. Ordway,
288:Articles, a selection
240:Selected publications
229:Missiles and Rockets.
202:In a 1959 article in
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384:Scheduling handbook.
249:Cornell Univ., 1936.
198:Presentation of PERT
427:Vol. 8, 1961, p. 28
358:Cornell Alumni News
139:and more than 9000
93:Development of PERT
82:operations research
59:US Steel Export Co.
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282:39268502
161:Lockheed
133:Du Pont
111:Polaris
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193:... "
344:p. 7
278:OCLC
189:and
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88:Work
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