2265:
2209:
485:
bursts of reform effort, such bursts can be exhausting, and the body politic thus needs the rest of a conservative phase. He also speculates that conservative phases accumulate unsolved social problems, problems that require the efforts of a liberal phase. He also speculated on generational effects, since most of the liberal-conservative phase pairs are roughly 30 years long, roughly the length of a human generation.
566:
individuals and groups. Yet no government can be all these things and still remain a government." This contradiction produces an unavoidable gap between ideals and institutions, an "IvI" gap. This gap is normally tolerable, but it is a gap that sometimes leads to bursts of "creedal passion" against existing systems and institutions, bursts that typically last around 15 years. He identified four of them:
887:
serves only one term. This president is usually followed by a preemptive president, and articulating and preemptive presidents may continue to alternate. The cycle ends with one or more disjunctive presidents. Such presidents are typically loners, detached from their parties, considered ineffective, and serving only one term.
484:
The
Schlesingers proposed that their cycles are "self-generating", meaning that each kind of phase generates the other kind of phase. This process then repeats, causing cycles. Arthur Schlesinger Jr. speculated on possible reasons for these transitions. He speculated that since liberal phases involve
1059:
Historian Frank J. Klingberg described what he called "the historical alternation of moods in
American foreign policy," an alternation between "extroversion", willingness to confront other nations and to expand American influence and territory, and "introversion", unwillingness to do so. He examined
886:
The cycle begins with a reconstructive president, one who typically serves more than one term. He establishes a new regime, and his party becomes the dominant one for that regime. He is usually succeeded by his vice president, his successor is usually an articulation one, and that president usually
821:
has proposed four main types of presidencies, and these types of presidencies also fit into a cycle. He proposes that the United States has had several political regimes over its history, regimes with a characteristic cycle of presidency types. Each political regime has had a dominant party and an
488:
The
Schlesingers' identified phases end in a conservative period, and in a foreword written in 1999, Schlesinger Jr. speculated about why it has lasted unusually long, instead of ending in the early 1990s. One of his speculations was the continuing Computer Revolution, as disruptive as the earlier
565:
has proposed that
American history has had several bursts of "creedal passion". Huntington described the "American Creed" of government in these terms: "In terms of American beliefs, government is supposed to be egalitarian, participatory, open, noncoercive, and responsive to the demands of
489:
Industrial
Revolution had been. Another of them was wanting a long rest after major national traumas. The 1860s Civil War and Reconstruction preceded the unusually-long Gilded Age, and the strife of the 1960s likewise preceded the recent unusually-long conservative period.
1395:, and in post-election analysis, Silver cited Trende in noting that "there are few if any permanent majorities" and both Silver and Trende argued that the "emerging Democratic majority" thesis led most news coverage and commentary preceding the election to overstate
492:
An alternative identification is due to Andrew S. McFarland. He identifies the liberal phases as reform ones and conservative phases as business ones, and he additionally identifies transitions from the reform ones to the business ones. From his Figure 1,
68:
was proposed by historian Frank J. Klingberg. He proposed that the United States has repeatedly alternated between foreign-policy extroversion and introversion, willingness to go on international adventures and unwillingness to do so.
750:
Opinions differ on the timing of the transition from the fifth to the sixth systems, opinions ranging from the 1960s to the 1990s. Some political scientists argue that it was a gradual transition, one without any well-defined date.
1060:
presidents' speeches, party platforms, naval expenditures, wars, and annexations, identifying in 1952 seven alternations since 1776. He and others have extended this work into more recent years, finding more alternations.
1045:
Some of the articulating and preemptive presidents' types have been inferred from their party affiliations, and George
Washington is here classified as a reconstructing president because he was the first one.
1715:
1862:"(Page 7 of 56) - Long-Term US Foreign Policy Moods and Involvement in System Wars: Is There Any Way to Reduce the Odds? authored by Lawrence, Colin., Holmes, Jack., Johnson, Lauren. and Aardema, Sara"
629:"Major reforms were attempted in political institutions in order to limit power and reshape institutions in terms of American ideals (some of which were successful and some of which were lasting)."
61:. Each phase has characteristic features, and each phase is self-limiting, generating the other phase. This alternation has repeated itself several times over the history of the United States.
1266:
Arthur
Schlesinger, Jr. concluded that this cycle is not synchronized with the liberal-conservative cycle, and for that reason, he concluded that these two cycles have separate causes.
809:
Other dates sometimes cited are 1874, 1964 (Lyndon B. Johnson), 1968 (Richard Nixon), 1980 (Ronald Reagan), 1992 (Bill
Clinton), 1994, 2008 (Barack Obama), and 2016 (Donald Trump).
1317:
states, "Almost none of the theories propounded by realignment theorists has endured the test of time... It turns out that finding a 'realigning' election is a lot like finding an
1861:
626:"The principal political cleavages of the period tended to cut across economic class lines, with some combination of middle- and working-class groups promoting change."
593:"Traditional American values of liberty, individualism, equality, popular control of government, and the openness of government were stressed in public discussion."
635:"The prevailing ethos promoting reform in the name of traditional ideals was, in a sense, both forward-looking and backward-looking, progressive and conservative."
1719:
632:"A basic realignment occurred in the relations between social forces and political institutions, often including but not limited to the political party system."
652:, elections that bring fast and large-scale changes. These events are mentioned here because their repeated occurrence may be interpreted as a kind of cycle.
1318:
1981:
2197:
1750:
1050:
Some of the sources propose that
Presidents William McKinley or Theodore Roosevelt were reconstructing presidents instead of articulating ones.
2175:
2307:
648:, where in each system, the two main parties have characteristic platforms and constituencies. Likewise, the United States has had several
602:"Hostility toward power (the antipower ethic) was intense, with the central issue of politics often being defined as 'liberty versus power.
394:
373:
352:
599:"Politics was characterized by agitation, excitement, commotion, even upheaval — far beyond the usual routine of interest-group conflict."
1326:
1865:
1921:
1392:
1334:
1330:
2190:
1784:
348:
1428:
2213:
2008:
612:"Movements flourished devoted to specific reforms or 'causes' (women, minorities, criminal justice, temperance, peace)."
1904:
231:
587:"Discontent was widespread; authority, hierarchy, specialization, and expertise were widely questioned or rejected."
2183:
1388:
623:"Political participation expanded, often assuming new forms and often expressed through hitherto unusual channels."
2264:
1384:
1367:
17:
2087:
1716:"What Time Is It? Here's What the 2016 Election Tells Us About Obama, Trump, and What Comes Next | The Nation"
2312:
2205:
2113:
2061:
1739:
431:
302:
2035:
1764:, reviewed by Richard J. Ellis, Journal of the Early Republic, Vol. 15, No. 1 (Spring, 1995), pp. 128-130
430:
The
Schlesingers' periodization closely parallels other periodizations of United States history, like in
1762:
Review of "The Politics Presidents Make: Leadership from John Adams to George Bush" by Stephen Skowronek
1692:
2302:
1353:
1338:
1500:
Klingberg, Frank J. (January 1952). "The Historical Alternation of Moods in American Foreign Policy".
1381:
590:"Political ideas were taken seriously and played an important role in the controversies of the time."
42:
38:
583:
Huntington described 14 features of creedal-passion eras. Nine of them describe the general mood:
164:
1953:
822:
opposition party, and presidents can be in either the dominant party or the opposition party.
72:
Several other cycles of American history have been proposed, with varying degrees of support.
2279:
1896:
1785:
Donald Trump will follow a failed political transformation, just like Benjamin Harrison - Vox
1357:
1349:
1302:
1740:
Opinion | The Fight Over How Trump Fits in With the Other 44 Presidents - The New York Times
615:"New media forms appeared, significantly increasing the influence of the media in politics."
2254:
1418:
1323:
if you stare long enough and hard enough, you will eventually find what you are looking for
562:
210:
189:
122:
8:
2239:
2229:
1423:
717:
691:
649:
118:
2249:
2244:
2234:
2224:
1890:
1843:
1657:
1649:
1590:
1573:
1565:
1525:
1517:
1283:
742:
730:
704:
678:
256:
252:
1548:
Resnick, David; Thomas, Norman C. (Autumn 1990). "Cycling through American Politics".
1926:
1900:
1823:
1661:
1577:
1529:
1454:
1408:
1345:
1322:
1297:
818:
1892:
The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs–and Who Will Take It
2167:
1835:
1641:
1632:
McFarland, Andrew (1991). "Interest Groups and Political Time: Cycles in America".
1611:
1557:
1509:
323:
50:
1693:
This 1981 book eerily predicted today's distrustful and angry political mood - Vox
1958:
1396:
1372:
298:
1824:"Linking the Levels: The Long Wave and Shifts in U.S. Foreign Policy, 1790-1993"
1342:
143:
65:
1645:
1602:
Brown, Jerald B. (June 1992). "The Wave Theory of American Social Movements".
609:"The exposure or muckraking of the IvI gap was a central feature of politics."
27:
Model used to explain the fluctuations in politics throughout American history
2296:
1761:
1615:
1364:
1275:
434:, and links to Knowledge articles on those periods are given as appropriate.
1703:
1310:
645:
58:
1795:
1751:
Is Trump the last gasp of Reagan's Republican Party? - The Washington Post
1949:
1886:
1413:
1377:
1292:
1279:
185:
1773:
437:
The features of each phase in the cycle can be summarized with a table.
2283:
1847:
1569:
1521:
1306:
1287:
413:
277:
54:
53:. In this theory, the United States's national mood alternates between
1774:
The Politics of Politics: Skowronek and Presidential Research on JSTOR
1653:
1361:
1305:
and the "emerging Democratic majority" thesis proposed by journalist
35:
1839:
1561:
1513:
344:
46:
2160:
An Introduction to Schlesinger's "Cyclical Theory" of U.S. History
1796:
Preemptive Presidents and President Trump – Presidential Power
75:
639:
556:
579:
1960s: S&S: Sixties and Seventies (Huntington's name)
1822:
Pollins, Brian M.; Schweller, Randall L. (April 1999).
2141:
1982:"It Wasn't the Polls That Missed, It Was the Pundits"
1234:
Vietnamization, détente, dissolution of Soviet Union
1149:
Texas and Oregon annexations, Mexican War, Civil War
1054:
553:
Roughly agreeing with Schlesinger's identifications.
596:"Moral indignation over the IvI gap was widespread."
1809:
The Mood/Interest Theory of American Foreign Policy
619:The remaining five describe the resulting changes:
1453:
1115:French naval war, Louisiana Purchase, War of 1812
230:Domination of National Government by Slaveowners (
1249:Post-Cold-War assertion, Gulf War, War on Terror
2294:
1821:
1217:World War II, Cold War, Korean and Vietnam Wars
812:
1200:League of Nations rejections, Neutrality Acts
2191:
1547:
1677:American Politics: The Promise of Disharmony
1064:Klingberg phases of American foreign policy
1481:
1451:
1319:image of Jesus in a grilled-cheese sandwich
644:The United States has gone through several
2198:
2184:
1674:
2088:"There Really Was A Liberal Media Bubble"
1631:
1499:
251:Abolition of Slavery and Reconstruction (
117:Liberal Movement to Create Constitution (
2165:
1325:." In August 2013, Trende observed that
1098:Revolution, establishment of government
184:Conservative Retreat After War of 1812 (
76:Schlesinger's liberal-conservative cycle
1688:
1686:
1262:(none): no events listed in the sources
640:Party systems and realignment elections
557:Huntington's periods of creedal passion
81:Schlesinger phases of American history
14:
2295:
2169:Generational Cycles in Mass Psychology
2111:
2085:
2062:"It Wasn't Clinton's Election To Lose"
2059:
2033:
2006:
1979:
1948:
1919:
1885:
1806:
1543:
1541:
1539:
1477:
1475:
1473:
1471:
1469:
1467:
1447:
1445:
1443:
2179:
2114:"The Media Has A Probability Problem"
1828:American Journal of Political Science
1704:The Presidency in the Political Order
1627:
1625:
1601:
1495:
1493:
1132:Nullification Crisis, Texas question
2015:. RealClearInvestors and Crest Media
1988:. RealClearInvestors and Crest Media
1930:. RealClearInvestors and Crest Media
1683:
1634:British Journal of Political Science
2308:Historiography of the United States
2214:Political eras of the United States
2157:
2112:Silver, Nate (September 21, 2017).
1811:. The University Press of Kentucky.
1536:
1464:
1440:
163:Liberal Period of Jeffersonianism (
24:
2151:
2036:"The Electoral College Blind Spot"
2007:Trende, Sean (November 16, 2016).
1980:Trende, Sean (November 12, 2016).
1922:"Are Elections Decided by Chance?"
1622:
1595:
1584:
1490:
1327:U.S. presidential election results
1183:Spanish-American War, World War I
1055:The Klingberg foreign-policy cycle
25:
2324:
2060:Silver, Nate (January 23, 2017).
2034:Silver, Nate (January 23, 2017).
2263:
2207:
1920:Trende, Sean (August 13, 2013).
1482:Schlesinger, Arthur Jr. (1999).
1452:Schlesinger, Arthur Sr. (1949).
1429:Strauss–Howe generational theory
1370:. In May 2015, statistician and
2105:
2086:Silver, Nate (March 10, 2017).
2079:
2053:
2027:
2000:
1973:
1942:
1913:
1879:
1854:
1815:
1800:
1789:
1778:
1767:
1755:
1744:
1733:
1708:
1697:
1393:2016 U.S. presidential election
45:to explain the fluctuations in
1675:Huntington, Samuel P. (1981).
1668:
1484:The Cycles of American History
1295:, senior elections analyst at
64:A similar theory for American
13:
1:
1434:
1399:'s chances of being elected.
395:Civil-Rights Era, The Sixties
2166:Goertzel, Ted (2001-06-08),
1486:. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
1269:
813:Skowronek's presidency types
432:History of the United States
7:
1402:
10:
2329:
1591:CYCLES OF AMERICAN HISTORY
1273:
34:refers to a model used by
2272:
2261:
2220:
1954:"There Is No 'Blue Wall'"
1646:10.1017/S0007123400006165
43:Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.
39:Arthur M. Schlesinger Sr.
1807:Holmes, Jack E. (1985).
1616:10.1525/city.1992.6.1.26
1309:and political scientist
570:1770s: Revolutionary era
374:Postwar Era, The Fifties
322:Republican Restoration (
232:Origins of the Civil War
142:Hamiltonian Federalism (
803:Franklin D. Roosevelt
576:1900s: Progressive era
209:Jacksonian Democracy (
165:Jeffersonian democracy
2280:Political realignment
2009:"The God That Failed"
1358:binomial distribution
1301:, who argues against
755:Realigning elections
573:1830s: Jacksonian era
2313:Jacksonian democracy
2255:Seventh Party System
1456:Paths to the Present
1419:Deterministic system
995:Rec: Roosevelt, F.D.
817:Political scientist
650:realigning elections
563:Samuel P. Huntington
211:Jacksonian democracy
190:Era of Good Feelings
123:Confederation Period
2240:Fourth Party System
2230:Second Party System
1424:Social cycle theory
1065:
975:Art*: Roosevelt, T.
922:Pre: Harrison, W.H.
826:
756:
718:Fourth Party System
692:Second Party System
657:
459:Increase Democracy
451:Wrongs of the Many
82:
2250:Sixth Party System
2245:Fifth Party System
2235:Third Party System
2225:First Party System
2135:Bundled references
1897:St. Martin's Press
1604:City & Society
1387:advantage for the
1303:realignment theory
1284:Probability theory
1063:
1008:Art: Johnson, L.B.
833:President's Party
825:
754:
743:Sixth Party System
731:Fifth Party System
705:Third Party System
679:First Party System
655:
462:Contain Democracy
454:Rights of the Few
257:Reconstruction Era
80:
2303:Cyclical theories
2290:
2289:
2158:Sweeney, Nathan,
2013:RealClearPolitics
1986:RealClearPolitics
1927:RealClearPolitics
1409:Cycle of violence
1385:Electoral College
1380:argued against a
1315:The Lost Majority
1313:in his 2012 book
1298:RealClearPolitics
1259:Int: Introversion
1256:Ext: Extroversion
1253:
1252:
1025:Art: Bush, G.H.W.
966:Art: Harrison, B.
884:
883:
819:Stephen Skowronek
807:
806:
795:William McKinley
771:Thomas Jefferson
748:
747:
551:
550:
482:
481:
470:Private Interest
426:Con: Conservative
420:
419:
297:Progressive Era (
16:(Redirected from
2320:
2267:
2212:
2211:
2210:
2200:
2193:
2186:
2177:
2176:
2172:
2162:
2145:
2129:
2128:
2126:
2124:
2109:
2103:
2102:
2100:
2098:
2083:
2077:
2076:
2074:
2072:
2057:
2051:
2050:
2048:
2046:
2031:
2025:
2024:
2022:
2020:
2004:
1998:
1997:
1995:
1993:
1977:
1971:
1970:
1968:
1966:
1952:(May 12, 2015).
1946:
1940:
1939:
1937:
1935:
1917:
1911:
1910:
1883:
1877:
1876:
1874:
1873:
1864:. Archived from
1858:
1852:
1851:
1819:
1813:
1812:
1804:
1798:
1793:
1787:
1782:
1776:
1771:
1765:
1759:
1753:
1748:
1742:
1737:
1731:
1730:
1728:
1727:
1718:. Archived from
1712:
1706:
1701:
1695:
1690:
1681:
1680:
1679:. Belknap Press.
1672:
1666:
1665:
1629:
1620:
1619:
1599:
1593:
1588:
1582:
1581:
1545:
1534:
1533:
1497:
1488:
1487:
1479:
1462:
1461:
1459:
1449:
1389:Democratic Party
1376:editor-in-chief
1066:
1062:
948:Pre: Johnson, A.
911:Dis: Adams, J.Q.
827:
824:
787:Abraham Lincoln
757:
753:
658:
654:
605:
496:
495:
478:Property Rights
440:
439:
349:Great Depression
324:Roaring Twenties
276:The Gilded Age (
83:
79:
51:American history
21:
2328:
2327:
2323:
2322:
2321:
2319:
2318:
2317:
2293:
2292:
2291:
2286:
2276:Cyclical theory
2268:
2259:
2216:
2208:
2206:
2204:
2154:
2152:Further reading
2149:
2148:
2142:
2132:
2122:
2120:
2118:FiveThirtyEight
2110:
2106:
2096:
2094:
2092:FiveThirtyEight
2084:
2080:
2070:
2068:
2066:FiveThirtyEight
2058:
2054:
2044:
2042:
2040:FiveThirtyEight
2032:
2028:
2018:
2016:
2005:
2001:
1991:
1989:
1978:
1974:
1964:
1962:
1959:FiveThirtyEight
1947:
1943:
1933:
1931:
1918:
1914:
1907:
1884:
1880:
1871:
1869:
1860:
1859:
1855:
1840:10.2307/2991801
1820:
1816:
1805:
1801:
1794:
1790:
1783:
1779:
1772:
1768:
1760:
1756:
1749:
1745:
1738:
1734:
1725:
1723:
1714:
1713:
1709:
1702:
1698:
1691:
1684:
1673:
1669:
1630:
1623:
1600:
1596:
1589:
1585:
1562:10.2307/3235140
1546:
1537:
1514:10.2307/2009047
1498:
1491:
1480:
1465:
1450:
1441:
1437:
1405:
1397:Hillary Clinton
1373:FiveThirtyEight
1290:
1272:
1057:
1043:
1031:Art: Bush, G.W.
1002:Pre: Eisenhower
893:Rec: Washington
847:Reconstruction
830:Dominant Party
815:
779:Andrew Jackson
642:
603:
559:
467:Public Purpose
299:Progressive Era
93:
78:
32:cyclical theory
28:
23:
22:
18:Cyclical theory
15:
12:
11:
5:
2326:
2316:
2315:
2310:
2305:
2288:
2287:
2273:
2270:
2269:
2262:
2260:
2258:
2257:
2252:
2247:
2242:
2237:
2232:
2227:
2221:
2218:
2217:
2203:
2202:
2195:
2188:
2180:
2174:
2173:
2163:
2153:
2150:
2147:
2146:
2139:
2138:
2137:
2136:
2131:
2130:
2104:
2078:
2052:
2026:
1999:
1972:
1941:
1912:
1906:978-0230116467
1905:
1899:. p. xx.
1878:
1853:
1834:(2): 431–464.
1814:
1799:
1788:
1777:
1766:
1754:
1743:
1732:
1707:
1696:
1682:
1667:
1640:(3): 257–284.
1621:
1594:
1583:
1535:
1508:(2): 239–273.
1502:World Politics
1489:
1463:
1438:
1436:
1433:
1432:
1431:
1426:
1421:
1416:
1411:
1404:
1401:
1271:
1268:
1264:
1263:
1260:
1257:
1251:
1250:
1247:
1244:
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1240:
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1232:
1229:
1226:
1223:
1219:
1218:
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1209:
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1201:
1198:
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1189:
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1178:
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1164:
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1127:
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1121:
1117:
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1113:
1110:
1107:
1104:
1100:
1099:
1096:
1093:
1090:
1087:
1083:
1082:
1079:
1076:
1073:
1070:
1056:
1053:
1052:
1051:
1042:
1041:
1038:
1035:
1032:
1029:
1026:
1023:
1018:
1015:
1012:
1009:
1006:
1003:
1000:
997:
992:
989:
986:
983:
980:
977:
972:
970:Art*: McKinley
967:
964:
963:Pre: Cleveland
961:
958:
955:
952:
949:
946:
941:
938:
935:
932:
929:
926:
923:
920:
919:Art: Van Buren
917:
912:
909:
906:
903:
901:Rec: Jefferson
898:
897:Dis: Adams, J.
895:
889:
882:
881:
878:
875:
871:
870:
867:
864:
860:
859:
856:
853:
849:
848:
845:
842:
838:
837:
834:
831:
814:
811:
805:
804:
801:
797:
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144:Federalist Era
140:
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134:
131:
127:
126:
115:
112:
109:
106:
102:
101:
98:
95:
90:
87:
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66:foreign policy
26:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
2325:
2314:
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2301:
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2256:
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2248:
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2243:
2241:
2238:
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2228:
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2219:
2215:
2201:
2196:
2194:
2189:
2187:
2182:
2181:
2178:
2171:
2170:
2164:
2161:
2156:
2155:
2144:
2140:
2134:
2133:
2119:
2115:
2108:
2093:
2089:
2082:
2067:
2063:
2056:
2041:
2037:
2030:
2014:
2010:
2003:
1987:
1983:
1976:
1961:
1960:
1955:
1951:
1945:
1929:
1928:
1923:
1916:
1908:
1902:
1898:
1894:
1893:
1888:
1882:
1868:on 2020-01-23
1867:
1863:
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1841:
1837:
1833:
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1825:
1818:
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1763:
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1752:
1747:
1741:
1736:
1722:on 2020-01-06
1721:
1717:
1711:
1705:
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1694:
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1687:
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1659:
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1628:
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1613:
1609:
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1587:
1579:
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1571:
1567:
1563:
1559:
1555:
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1515:
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1503:
1496:
1494:
1485:
1478:
1476:
1474:
1472:
1470:
1468:
1458:
1457:
1448:
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1439:
1430:
1427:
1425:
1422:
1420:
1417:
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1412:
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1407:
1406:
1400:
1398:
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1386:
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1359:
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1316:
1312:
1308:
1304:
1300:
1299:
1294:
1289:
1285:
1281:
1277:
1276:Indeterminism
1267:
1261:
1258:
1255:
1254:
1248:
1245:
1243:
1241:
1238:
1237:
1233:
1230:
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1199:
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1190:
1187:
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1179:
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1159:
1156:
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1148:
1145:
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1136:
1135:
1131:
1128:
1125:
1122:
1119:
1118:
1114:
1111:
1108:
1105:
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1101:
1097:
1094:
1091:
1088:
1085:
1084:
1080:
1077:
1074:
1071:
1068:
1067:
1061:
1049:
1048:
1047:
1039:
1036:
1033:
1030:
1027:
1024:
1022:
1019:
1016:
1013:
1010:
1007:
1004:
1001:
998:
996:
993:
990:
988:Art: Coolidge
987:
984:
981:
978:
976:
973:
971:
968:
965:
962:
959:
957:Art: Garfield
956:
953:
950:
947:
945:
942:
940:Dis: Buchanan
939:
936:
934:Pre: Fillmore
933:
930:
927:
924:
921:
918:
916:
913:
910:
907:
904:
902:
899:
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894:
891:
890:
888:
880:Articulation
879:
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873:
872:
868:
865:
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846:
843:
840:
839:
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832:
829:
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680:
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663:
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647:
646:party systems
634:
631:
628:
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622:
621:
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592:
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585:
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575:
572:
569:
568:
567:
564:
554:
547:1980- ?
546:
543:
540:
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535:
532:
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518:
517:
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511:
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475:Human Rights
474:
473:
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461:
458:
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453:
450:
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446:Conservative
445:
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73:
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44:
40:
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2275:
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2159:
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2121:. Retrieved
2117:
2107:
2095:. Retrieved
2091:
2081:
2069:. Retrieved
2065:
2055:
2043:. Retrieved
2039:
2029:
2017:. Retrieved
2012:
2002:
1990:. Retrieved
1985:
1975:
1963:. Retrieved
1957:
1950:Silver, Nate
1944:
1932:. Retrieved
1925:
1915:
1891:
1887:Trende, Sean
1881:
1870:. Retrieved
1866:the original
1856:
1831:
1827:
1817:
1808:
1802:
1791:
1780:
1769:
1757:
1746:
1735:
1724:. Retrieved
1720:the original
1710:
1699:
1676:
1670:
1637:
1633:
1610:(1): 26–45.
1607:
1603:
1597:
1586:
1553:
1549:
1505:
1501:
1483:
1460:. Macmillan.
1455:
1371:
1337:form a 0.96
1314:
1311:Ruy Teixeira
1296:
1291:
1265:
1058:
1044:
1028:Pre: Clinton
1020:
1005:Art: Kennedy
994:
985:Art: Harding
974:
969:
944:Rec: Lincoln
943:
915:Rec: Jackson
914:
905:Art: Madison
900:
892:
885:
858:Disjunction
816:
808:
749:
643:
618:
582:
560:
552:
491:
487:
483:
436:
429:
423:Lib: Liberal
353:World War II
71:
63:
59:conservatism
31:
29:
2123:October 28,
2097:October 28,
1992:October 28,
1556:(1): 1–21.
1414:Determinism
1378:Nate Silver
1339:correlation
1293:Sean Trende
1280:Probability
1021:Rec: Reagan
1017:Dis: Carter
999:Art: Truman
991:Dis: Hoover
982:Pre: Wilson
960:Art: Arthur
937:Dis: Pierce
931:Pre: Taylor
908:Art: Monroe
869:Preemption
866:Opposition
852:Vulnerable
844:Opposition
841:Vulnerable
303:World War I
186:War of 1812
94:(in years)
49:throughout
2297:Categories
2284:Psephology
2274:See also:
2071:January 6,
2045:January 6,
1965:January 6,
1872:2019-06-24
1726:2019-12-14
1435:References
1368:experiment
1307:John Judis
1288:Randomness
1274:See also:
1034:Pre: Obama
1011:Pre: Nixon
954:Art: Hayes
951:Art: Grant
925:Pre: Tyler
874:Resilient
863:Resilient
763:President
561:Historian
414:Reagan Era
278:Gilded Age
119:Revolution
55:liberalism
36:historians
1662:153440024
1578:147647668
1530:156295082
1382:blue wall
1362:fair coin
1356:) in the
1341:with the
1270:Criticism
1075:Duration
1014:Pre: Ford
979:Art: Taft
928:Art: Polk
877:Dominant
855:Dominant
505:Business
253:Civil War
1934:April 7,
1889:(2012).
1403:See also
1350:outcomes
1343:expected
1333:through
1040:?: Biden
1037:?: Trump
544:1974-80
541:1961-74
536:1949-61
533:1940-48
530:1933-39
525:1919-33
522:1915-18
519:1901-14
443:Liberal
345:New Deal
92:Duration
47:politics
2019:May 10,
1848:2991801
1570:3235140
1522:2009047
1391:in the
1166:(none)
1081:Events
667:System
502:Trans.
499:Reform
1903:
1846:
1660:
1654:193728
1652:
1576:
1568:
1550:Polity
1528:
1520:
1354:events
1352:(i.e.
1286:, and
661:Begin
514:1890s
1844:JSTOR
1658:S2CID
1650:JSTOR
1574:S2CID
1566:JSTOR
1526:S2CID
1518:JSTOR
1360:of a
1329:from
1239:1987
1225:1987
1222:1967
1208:1967
1205:1940
1191:1940
1188:1919
1174:1919
1171:1891
1157:1891
1154:1871
1140:1871
1137:1844
1123:1844
1120:1824
1106:1824
1103:1798
1089:1798
1086:1776
1078:Type
1069:From
836:Type
800:1932
792:1896
784:1860
776:1828
768:1800
760:Date
737:1980
727:1974
724:1932
714:1930
711:1896
701:1894
698:1856
688:1854
685:1828
675:1826
672:1792
402:1978
384:1978
381:1962
363:1962
360:1947
334:1947
331:1931
313:1931
310:1919
288:1919
285:1901
267:1901
264:1869
242:1869
239:1861
221:1861
218:1841
200:1841
197:1829
175:1829
172:1812
154:1812
151:1800
133:1800
130:1788
108:1788
105:1776
100:Name
97:Type
86:From
2125:2021
2099:2021
2073:2020
2047:2020
2021:2020
1994:2021
1967:2020
1936:2021
1901:ISBN
1365:flip
1346:sets
1335:2012
1331:1880
1246:Ext
1231:Int
1214:Ext
1197:Int
1180:Ext
1163:Int
1146:Ext
1129:Int
1112:Ext
1095:Int
664:End
409:Con
390:Lib
369:Con
343:The
340:Lib
319:Con
294:Lib
273:Con
248:Lib
227:Con
206:Lib
181:Con
160:Lib
139:Con
114:Lib
57:and
41:and
30:The
1836:doi
1642:doi
1612:doi
1558:doi
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1348:of
1228:20
1211:27
1194:21
1177:18
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387:16
366:15
337:16
316:12
291:18
270:32
224:20
203:12
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136:12
111:12
89:To
2299::
2282:·
2278:·
2116:.
2090:.
2064:.
2038:.
2011:.
1984:.
1956:.
1924:.
1895:.
1842:.
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1830:.
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1466:^
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2127:.
2101:.
2075:.
2049:.
2023:.
1996:.
1969:.
1938:.
1909:.
1875:.
1850:.
1838::
1729:.
1664:.
1644::
1618:.
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1608:6
1580:.
1560::
1532:.
1512::
1506:4
606:"
604:'
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393:(
372:(
347:(
20:)
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