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possible states of the system in the future with aspects and dynamics that cannot be known to observers of the current state of the system. This type of uncertainty around future states of an evolutionary system has been referred to as ‘radical’ or ‘fundamental’ uncertainty. This has led some researchers to call for more work on the broader array of possible futures and calling for modelling research on those alternative scenarios that have yet to receive substantial attention, for example post-growth scenarios.
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39:
development. While the detail and extent of integrated disciplines varies strongly per model, all climatic integrated assessment modelling includes economic processes as well as processes producing greenhouse gases. Other integrated assessment models also integrate other aspects of human development such as education, health, infrastructure, and governance.
112:(IPCC) has relied on process-based integrated assessment models to quantify mitigation scenarios. They have been used to explore different pathways for staying within climate policy targets such as the 1.5 °C target agreed upon in the Paris Agreement. Moreover, these models have underpinned research including energy policy assessment and simulate the
143:, or the marginal social cost of emitting one more tonne of carbon (as carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere at any point in time. For instance, the DICE, PAGE, and FUND models have been used by the US Interagency Working Group to calculate the social cost of carbon and its results have been used for regulatory impact analysis.
70:. The word assessment comes from the use of these models to provide information for answering policy questions. To quantify these integrated assessment studies, numerical models are used. Integrated assessment modelling does not provide predictions for the future but rather estimates what possible scenarios look like.
701:
178:
All numerical models have shortcomings. Integrated
Assessment Models for climate change, in particular, have been severely criticized for problematic assumptions that led to greatly overestimating the cost/benefit ratio for mitigating climate change while relying on economic models inappropriate to
190:
Models undertaking optimisation methodologies have received numerous different critiques, a prominent one however, draws on the ideas of dynamical systems theory which understands systems as changing with no deterministic pathway or end-state. This implies a very large, or even infinite, number of
162:
create a perception of knowledge and precision that is illusory, and can fool policy-makers into thinking that the forecasts the models generate have some kind of scientific legitimacy". Still, it has been argued that attempting to calculate the social cost of carbon is useful to gain insight into
702:
Rogelj, J. Popp, A. Calvin, K.V. Luderer, G. Emmerling, J. Gernaat, D. Fujimori, S. Strefler, J. Hasegawa, T. Marangoni, G. Krey, V. Kriegler, E. Riahi, K. van Vuuren, D.P. Doelman, J. Drouet, L. Edmonds, J. Fricko, O. Harmsen, M. Havlik, P. Humpenöder, F. Stehfest, E. Tavoni, M. (2018-03-05).
38:
that tries to link main features of society and economy with the biosphere and atmosphere into one modelling framework. The goal of integrated assessment modelling is to accommodate informed policy-making, usually in the context of climate change though also in other areas of human and social
73:
There are different types of integrated assessment models. One classification distinguishes between firstly models that quantify future developmental pathways or scenarios and provide detailed, sectoral information on the complex processes modelled. Here they are called process-based models.
1807:
Keppo, Ilkka
Johannes; Butnar, I; Bauer, N; Caspani, M; Edelenbosch, O; Emmerling, J; Fragkos, P; Guivarch, C; Harmsen, M; Lefèvre, J; Le Gallic, T; Leimbach, M; McDowall, W; Mercure, J-F; Schaeffer, R; Trutnevyte, E; Wagner, F (April 2021).
1011:
Luderer, Gunnar; Leimbach, Marian; Bauer, Nico; Kriegler, Elmar; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bertram, Christoph; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Hilaire, Jerome; Klein, David (2015). "Description of the REMIND Model (Version 1.6)".
1051:
Baumstark, Lavinia; Bauer, Nico; Benke, Falk; Bertram, Christoph; Bi, Stephen; Gong, Chen Chris; Dietrich, Jan
Philipp; Dirnaichner, Alois; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Hilaire, Jérôme; Klein, David (2021-10-28).
1424:
1148:
158:, the cost of emissions is required. However, the estimates of the social cost of carbon are highly uncertain and will remain so for the foreseeable future. It has been argued that "IAM-based analyses of
890:"The MESSAGE Integrated Assessment Model and the ix modeling platform (ixmp): An open framework for integrated and cross-cutting analysis of energy, climate, the environment, and sustainable development"
179:
the problem. In 2021, the integrated assessment modeling community examined gaps in what was termed the "possibility space" and how these might best be consolidated and addressed. In an
October
1425:
Yumashev, Dmitry Hope, Chris
Schaefer, Kevin Riemann-Campe, Kathrin Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando Jafarov, Elchin Burke, Eleanor J. Young, Paul J. Elshorbany, Yasin Whiteman, Gail (2019-04-23).
1102:
166:
Integrated assessment models have not been used solely to assess environmental or climate change-related fields. They have also been used to analyze patterns of conflict, the
163:
the effect of certain processes on climate impacts, as well as to better understand one of the determinants international cooperation in the governance of climate agreements.
888:
Huppmann, Daniel; Gidden, Matthew; Fricko, Oliver; Kolp, Peter; Orthofer, Clara; Pimmer, Michael; Kushin, Nikolay; Vinca, Adriano; Mastrucci, Alessio (February 2019).
248:
Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change. Contribution of
Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
82:
equations), or models that determine (globally) optimal economic solutions from the perspective of a social planner, assuming (partial) equilibrium of the economy.
962:
Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon; Asrar, Ghassem; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cui, Ryna Yiyun; Di
Vittorio, Alan; Dorheim, Kalyn; Edmonds, Jae (2019-02-15).
486:
1527:
78:
to find estimates of the total costs of climate change. A second classification makes a distinction between models that extrapolate verified patterns (via
187:
argues that existing IAMs are inherently unable to capture the economic realities of the climate crisis under its current state of rapid progress.
1551:
1490:
726:
2062:
619:
740:
Böhringer, Christoph; Rutherford, Thomos F. (September 2009). "Integrated assessment of energy policies: Decomposing top-down and bottom-up".
103:
1755:
775:
1528:
United States. Interagency
Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, issuing body. Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.), sponsoring body.
159:
2029:
1530:
Technical support document, technical update of the social cost of carbon for regulatory impact analysis--under executive order 12886
109:
99:
1735:
487:"Inaugural lecture Detlef van Vuuren: Integrated Assessment: Back to the Future - PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency"
1875:
120:, and WITCH-GLOBIOM. While these scenarios are highly policy-relevant, interpretation of the scenarios should be done with care.
1305:"Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE"
131:
DSK-model). These models typically do not assume rational and representative agents, nor market equilibrium in the long term.
2302:
1946:
467:
442:
417:
392:
259:
1149:"A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS"
800:
Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, Jae; O’Neill, Brian C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Bauer, Nico;
648:
Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of
Climate Change : Working Group III Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
1912:
1054:"REMIND2.1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits"
2120:
655:
323:
806:"The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview"
947:
864:
298:
1810:"Exploring the possibility space: taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models"
857:
Integrated assessment of global environmental change with IMAGE 3.0 : model description and policy applications
2243:
146:
This type of modelling is carried out to find the total cost of climate impacts, which are generally considered a
2312:
2057:
889:
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2292:
2307:
2022:
167:
113:
1196:
2099:
208:
1427:"Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements"
2166:
240:
572:"Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model"
251:
1968:
Hickel, J; Kallis, G; et al. (2021). "Urgent need for post-growth climate mitigation scenarios".
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75:
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2015:
95:
1101:
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Galeotti, Marzio; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo (2006).
964:"GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems"
2271:
930:
Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Matsuoka, Yuzuru (2017), "AIM/CGE V2.0 Model
Formula",
124:
2238:
1883:. London, United Kingdom: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
1484:
1303:
Mercure, Jean-Francois; Pollit, Hector; Neil, Edward; Holden, Philip; Unnada, Unnada (2018).
433:
Rothman, Dale; Irfan, Mohammod; Margolese-Malin, Eli; Hughes, Barry; Moyer, Jonathan (2014).
140:
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523:
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35:
1877:
A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics — Working paper 370
8:
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1382:
Nordhaus, William (1992). "An optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases".
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527:
408:
Hughes, Barry; Kuhn, Randall; Peterson, Cecilia; Rothman, Dale; Solorzano, Jose (2011).
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Gambhir, Ajay; Butnar, Isabela; Li, Pei-Hao; Smith, Pete; Strachan, Neil (2019-05-08).
1129:
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720:
42:
These models are integrated because they span multiple academic disciplines, including
2140:
1942:
1914:
Five Times Faster: Rethinking the Science, Economics, and Diplomacy of Climate Change
1884:
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Moyer, Jonathan; Bohl, David; Hanna, Taylor; Mayaki, Ibrahim; Bwalya, Martin (2019).
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Hughes, Barry; Joshi, Devin; Moyer, Jonathan; Sisk, Timothy; Solorzano, Jose (2014).
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Hafner, Sarah; Anger-Kraavi, Annela; Monasterolo, Irene; Jones, Aled (2020-11-01).
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2002:
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Pauliuk, Stefan; Arvesen, Anders; Stadler, Konstantin; Hertwich, Edgar G. (2017).
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1936:
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Cost-benefit integrated assessment models are the main tools for calculating the
55:
1568:
Ricke, Katharine; Drouet, Laurent; Caldeira, Ken; Tavoni, Massimo (2019-03-25).
645:
2202:
1981:
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116:. Notable modelling frameworks include IMAGE, MESSAGEix, AIM/GCE, GCAM, REMIND-
63:
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1569:
1458:
1331:
1304:
1223:
776:"Explainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate change"
712:
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997:
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665:
605:
553:
369:
344:"Some Contributions of Integrated Assessment Models of Global Climate Change"
51:
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832:
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Secondly, there are models that aggregate the costs of climate change and
2222:
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570:
Lamperti, F.; Dosi, G.; Napoletano, M.; Roventini, A.; Sapio, A. (2018).
544:
535:
59:
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16:
Scientific modeling that combines society, economy and the climate system
1844:
1703:"Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?"
1505:"FUND - Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution"
1117:
705:
Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C
596:
123:
Non-equilibrium models include those based on econometric equations and
1168:
155:
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43:
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1321:
2007:
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Africa's path to 2063: choice in the face of great transformation
1504:
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not captured by conventional markets. In order to correct such a
102:
climate scenarios 2022, based on the REMIND-MAgPIE model by the
2083:
2078:
2052:
1776:"Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change"
1258:"Emergence of New Economics Energy Transition Models: A Review"
646:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Staff. (2015-01-26).
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67:
1100:
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1997:
1938:
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an unknowable future
1195:; Kriegler, Elmar; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan (2018-10-15).
509:
1754:
Hedden, Steve; Rafa, Mickey; Moyer, Jonathan (August 2018).
1010:
621:
NGFS Climate Scenario Database: Technical Documentation V3.1
281:
Wang, Zheng; Wu, Jing; Liu, Changxin; Gu, Gaoxiang (2017).
1743:. Midrand, South Africa: African Union Development Agency.
1190:
1050:
1567:
679:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, issuing body.
407:
170:, trends across issue area in Africa, and food security.
1570:"Author Correction: Country-level social cost of carbon"
1197:"A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C research"
887:
283:
Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change Economics
1806:
1619:"Why the social cost of carbon will always be disputed"
1302:
1103:"WITCH - A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model"
383:
Dickson, Janet; Hughes, Barry; Irfan, Mohammod (2010).
316:
International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
961:
929:
1733:
1146:
512:"Industrial ecology in integrated assessment models"
457:
127:(such as E3ME), and agent-based models (such as the
859:. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
854:
739:
66:, conflict, governance, technology, education, and
382:
207:This second shortened version is used in the 2014
1928:
1660:"The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy"
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239:Clarke, Leon; Jiang, Kejun; et al. (2014).
134:
1800:
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1623:Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
232:
1906:
1904:
241:"Chapter 6: Assessing transformation pathways"
2023:
104:Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
1967:
1664:Review of Environmental Economics and Policy
1550:: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (
1489:: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (
725:: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (
348:Review of Environmental Economics and Policy
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110:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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934:, Springer Singapore, pp. 201–303,
742:Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
89:
1934:
1701:Moyer, Jonathan; Hedden, Steve (2020).
1657:
250:. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA:
85:
50:and for more comprehensive models also
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1910:
1616:
897:Environmental Modelling & Software
341:
313:
211:. Note too the American spellings of
34:) is a term used for a type of
2011:
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1774:Ackerman, Frank; et al. (2009).
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1358:"Q&A: The social cost of carbon"
337:
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2121:Climate change mitigation scenarios
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1874:Stern, Nicholas (26 October 2021).
13:
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560:
476:
14:
2324:
1991:
1757:Achieving Food Security in Uganda
1617:Pezzey, John C. V. (2018-11-12).
460:Strengthening Governance Globally
332:
285:. Singapore: Springer Singapore.
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1935:King, Mervyn; Kay, John (2020).
1859:
2187:Integrated assessment modelling
1961:
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1058:Geoscientific Model Development
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968:Geoscientific Model Development
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823:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009
793:
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626:NGFS Climate Scenarios Data Set
503:
173:
20:Integrated assessment modelling
1814:Environmental Research Letters
1720:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104749
1274:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106779
650:. Cambridge University Press.
588:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.03.023
451:
435:Building Global Infrastructure
426:
401:
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213:integrated assessment modeling
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1:
2003:Integrated Assessment Journal
1998:Integrated Assessment Society
1396:10.1126/science.258.5086.1315
909:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.11.012
804:; Dellink, Rob (2017-01-01).
226:
168:Sustainable Development Goals
135:Aggregate cost-benefit models
114:Shared socioeconomic pathways
2303:Environmental social science
2100:Open energy system databases
1941:. Little, Brown Book Group.
1917:. Cambridge University Press
940:10.1007/978-981-10-3869-3_12
855:Stehfest, E. (Elke) (2014).
209:IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
7:
2167:Electric power transmission
1658:Pindyck, Robert S. (2017).
810:Global Environmental Change
707:. Nature Publishing Group.
318:. Elsevier Academic Press.
10:
2329:
1982:10.1038/s41560-021-00884-9
1451:10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x
754:10.1016/j.jedc.2008.12.007
385:Advancing Global Education
252:Cambridge University Press
154:, for instance by using a
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2136:Mathematical optimization
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2105:Open energy system models
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1793:10.1007/s10584-009-9570-x
1595:10.1038/s41558-019-0455-3
1332:10.1016/j.esr.2018.03.003
1224:10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4
1110:SSRN Working Paper Series
1014:SSRN Working Paper Series
291:10.1007/978-981-10-3945-4
76:climate change mitigation
1835:10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8
1079:10.5194/gmd-14-6571-2021
932:Post-2020 Climate Action
618:Oliver Richters et al.:
194:
96:greenhouse gas emissions
1309:Energy Strategy Reviews
989:10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019
681:Global warming of 1.5°C
410:Improving Global Health
2313:Management cybernetics
1911:Sharpe, Simon (2023).
634:10.5281/zenodo.5782903
314:Hughes, Barry (2019).
125:evolutionary economics
106:
2298:Environmental science
2293:Climate change policy
2239:Energy Modeling Forum
1574:Nature Climate Change
1431:Nature Communications
1204:Nature Climate Change
516:Nature Climate Change
342:Weyant, John (2017).
141:social cost of carbon
93:
2308:Scientific modelling
1262:Ecological Economics
1022:10.2139/ssrn.2697070
576:Ecological Economics
536:10.1038/nclimate3148
183:2021 working paper,
148:negative externality
86:Process-based models
36:scientific modelling
28:integrated modelling
2126:Computer simulation
1826:2021ERL....16e3006K
1677:10.1093/reep/rew012
1586:2019NatCC...9..567R
1443:2019NatCo..10.1900Y
1390:(5086): 1315–1319.
1216:2018NatCC...8.1027H
1118:10.2139/ssrn.948382
1070:2021GMD....14.6571B
980:2019GMD....12..677C
528:2017NatCC...7...13P
361:10.1093/reep/rew018
217:integrated modeling
2244:openmod initiative
2162:Electricity market
1509:www.fund-model.org
1191:Huppmann, Daniel;
1169:10.3390/en12091747
462:. Paradigm Press.
437:. Paradigm Press.
412:. Paradigm Press.
387:. Paradigm Press.
107:
2280:
2279:
2141:Scenario analysis
1948:978-1-4087-1258-0
1707:World Development
1210:(12): 1027–1030.
1064:(10): 6571–6603.
802:Calvin, Katherine
469:978-1-61205-561-9
444:978-1-61205-092-8
419:978-1-59451-896-6
394:978-1-59451-755-6
261:978-1-107-65481-5
246:. In IPCC (ed.).
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1921:2024-08-05
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491:www.pbl.nl
267:2016-05-09
227:References
156:carbon tax
2072:Open data
1889:2515-5717
1854:1748-9326
1645:1757-7780
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1156:Energies
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1317:arXiv
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