2436:"What is collapse? 'Collapse' is a broad term that can cover many kinds of processes. It means different things to different people. Some see collapse as a thing that could happen only to societies organized at the most complex level. To them, the notion of tribal societies or village horticulturalists collapsing will seem odd. Others view collapse in terms of economic disintegration, of which the predicted end of industrial society is the ultimate expression. Still others question the very utility of the concept, pointing out that art styles and literary traditions often survive political decentralization. Collapse, as viewed in the present work, is a political process. It may, and often does, have consequences in such areas as economics, art, and literature, but it is fundamentally a matter of the sociopolitical sphere. A society has collapsed when it displays a rapid, significant loss of an established level of sociopolitical complexity. The term 'established level' is important. To qualify as an instance of collapse a society must have been at, or developing toward, a level of complexity for more than one or two generations. The demise of the Carolingian Empire, thus, is not a case of collapse - merely an unsuccessful attempt at empire building. The collapse, in turn, must be rapid - taking no more than a few decades - and must entail a substantial loss of sociopolitical structure. Losses that are less severe, or take longer to occur, are to be considered cases of weakness and decline. The fall of the Roman Empire is, in the West, the most widely known instance of collapse, the one which comes most readily to popular thought." (Pages 4-5)
794:
465:
942:. Roman troops first contracted the disease in the East before they returned home. Striking a virgin population, the Antonine Plague had dreadful mortality rates; between one third to half of the population, 60 to 70 million people, perished. Roman cities suffered from a combination of overcrowding, poor hygiene, and unhealthy diets. They quickly became epicenters. Soon, the disease reached as far as Gaul and mauled Roman defenses along the Rhine. The ranks of the previously formidable Roman army had to be filled with freed slaves, German mercenaries, criminals, and gladiators. That ultimately failed to prevent the Germanic tribes from crossing the Rhine. On the civilian side, the Antonine Plague created drastic shortages of businessmen, which disrupted trade, and farmers, which led to a food crisis. An economic depression followed and government revenue fell. Some accused Emperor
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A society starts out fairly equal. Its population grows and the cost of labor drops. A wealthy upper class emerges, and life for the working class deteriorates. As inequality grows, a society becomes more unstable with the lower-class being miserable and the upper-class entangled in infighting. Exacerbating social turbulence eventually leads to collapse. The shorter cycle lasts for about 50 years and consists of two generations, one peaceful and one turbulent. Looking at US history, for example, Turchin identified times of serious sociopolitical instability in 1870, 1920, and 1970. He announced in 2010 that he had predicted that in 2020, the US would witness a period of unrest at least on the same level as 1970 because the first cycle coincides with the turbulent part of the second in around 2020. He also warned that the US was not the only
Western nation under strain.
1060:
Black Death had a single source of spreading into Europe. Research into the past on this topic is further complicated by politics and the passage of time. It is difficult to distinguish between natural epidemics and biological warfare, both of which are common throughout human history. Biological weapons are economical because they turn an enemy casualty into a delivery system and so were favored in armed conflicts of the past. Furthermore, more soldiers died of disease than in combat until recently. In any case, by the 1340s, Black Death killed 200 million people. The widening trade routes in the Late Middle Ages helped the plague spread rapidly. It took the
European population more than two centuries to return to its level before the pandemic. Consequently, it destabilized most of society and likely undermined feudalism and the authority of the Church.
1794:
911:
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1335:), which led to social strife, and chronic inflation, which caused incomes to fall and threatened the fiscal health of the state. In particular, an excess in especially young adult male population predictably led to social unrest and violence, as the third and higher-order parity sons had trouble realizing their economic desires and became more open to extreme ideas and actions. Adults in their 20s are especially prone to radicalization. Most historical periods of social unrest lacking in external triggers, such as natural calamities, and most genocides can be readily explained as a result of a built-up youth bulge. As those trends intensified, they jeopardized the social fabric, which facilitated the decline.
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flexible. Rand and Cohen believe that explains why people continue with self-destructive behaviors when logical reasoning would have alerted them of the dangers ahead. People switch from the second to the first mode of thinking after the introduction of an invention that dramatically increases the standards of living. Rand and Cohen pointed to the recent examples of the antibiotic overuse leading to resistant bacteria and failure to save for retirement. Tainter noted that according to behavioral economics, the human decision-making process tends to be more irrational than rational and that as the rate of innovation declines, as measured by the number of inventions relative to the amount of money spent on
386:
38:
4049:, describes quite plausibly how the plague was transmitted by the Mongols by throwing diseased cadavers with catapults into the besieged city, and how ships transporting Genovese soldiers, fleas and rats fleeing from there brought it to the Mediterranean ports. Given the highly complex epidemiology of plague, this interpretation of the Black Death (which might have killed > 25 million people in the following years throughout Europe) as stemming from a specific and localized origin of the Black Death remains controversial. Similarly, it remains doubtful whether the effect of throwing infected cadavers could have been the sole cause of the outburst of an epidemic in the besieged city.
62:
1326:. Societies as diverse as those of England and France during the Roman, medieval, and early modern eras, of Egypt during Greco-Roman and Ottoman rule, and of various dynasties in China all showed similar patterns of political instability and violence becoming considerably more common after times of relative peace, prosperity, and sustained population growth. Quantitatively, periods of unrest included many times more events of instability per decade and occurred when the population was declining, rather than increasing. Pre-industrial agrarian societies typically faced instability after one or two centuries of stability. However, a population approaching its
1339:
967:
1483:
705:
592:
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1735:(1961, 1979). He argued that societal disintegration involves the metamorphosis of social instruments, which were set up to meet actual needs, into institutions, which serve their own interest at the expense of social needs. However, in the 1950s, Toynbee's approach to history, his style of civilizational analysis, started to face skepticism from mainstream historians who thought it put an undue emphasis on the divine, which led to his academic reputation declining. For a time, however, Toynbee's
1404:
531:(in modern-day Germany) added fuel to the fire. Soon, it escalated to a huge conflict that involved all major European powers and devastated much of Germany. When the war had ended, some regions of the empire had seen their populations drop by as much as 70%. However, not all societies faced crises during this period. Tropical countries with high carrying capacities and trading economies did not suffer much because the changing climate did not induce an economic depression in those places.
443:, where it could stay for years and gradually get oxidized into sulfate aerosols. Being highly reflective, sulfate aerosols reduce the incident sunlight and cool the Earth's surface. By drilling into glaciers and ice sheets, scientists can access the archives of the history of atmospheric composition. A team of multidisciplinary researchers led by Joseph McConnell of the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nevada deduced that a volcanic eruption occurred in 43 BC, a year after the
496:
1522:, a large-scale society in which resources are being depleted at an exponential rate, but nothing is done to rectify the problem because the ruling elite are unwilling or unable to adapt to those resources' reduced availability. In this type of society, rulers tend to oppose any solutions that diverge from their present course of action but favor intensification and commit an increasing number of resources to their present plans, projects, and social institutions.
6510:
1479:, has fallen in the past century from 100:1 to the range of 10:1 with clear evidence that the natural depletion curves all are downward decay curves. An EROI of more than ~3 then is what appears necessary to provide the energy for socially important tasks, such as maintaining government, legal and financial institutions, a transportation infrastructure, manufacturing, building construction and maintenance, and the lifestyles of all members of a given society.
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1032:
1068:
1822:
854:
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428:. Historians and archeologists believe that severe and long-lasting drought and a decline in trade with Egypt and Mesopotamia caused the collapse. Evidence for earthquakes has also been discovered. Sea level changes are also found at two possible seaport sites along the Makran coast which are now inland. Earthquakes may have contributed to decline of several sites by direct shaking damage or by changes in sea level or in water supply.
1720:(meeting the challenges of the decaying civilization with new insight, as a prophet). He argues that those who transcend during a period of social decay give birth to a new Church with new and stronger spiritual insights around which a subsequent civilization may begin to form after the old has died. Toynbee's use of the word 'church' refers to the collective spiritual bond of a common worship, or the same unity found in some kind of
919:
higher concentrations of garbage. Poor sanitation, a lack of medical knowledge, superstitions, and sometimes a combination of disasters exacerbated the problem. The journalist
Michael Rosenwald wrote that "history shows that past pandemics have reshaped societies in profound ways. Hundreds of millions of people have died. Empires have fallen. Governments have cracked. Generations have been annihilated."
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1808:
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refused to sell at such low prices. In any case, the act was abolished by the
Lincoln Parliament in 1316. Soon, people from commoners to nobles were finding themselves short of food. Many resorted to begging, crime, and eating animals they otherwise would not eat. People in northern England had to deal with raids from Scotland. There were even reports of
180:, and misfortune. However, complete extinction of a culture is not inevitable, and in some cases, the new societies that arise from the ashes of the old one are evidently its offspring, despite a dramatic reduction in sophistication. Moreover, the influence of a collapsed society, such as the Western Roman Empire, may linger on long after its death.
1471:(EROI), which measures the amount of surplus energy a society gets from using energy to obtain energy. Energy shortages drive up prices and as such provide an incentive to explore and extract previously uneconomical sources, which may still be plentiful, but more energy would be required, and the EROI is then not as high as initially thought.
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Civilization, the
Byzantine Empire, and what later became known as Medieval Europe. With so many people dead, the supply of workers, many of whom were slaves, was critically short. Landowners had no choice but to lend pieces of land to serfs to work the land in exchange for military protection and other privileges. That sowed the seeds of
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and large-scale human crises in pre-industrial times. Short-term crises may be caused by social problems, but climate change was the ultimate cause of major crises, starting with economic depressions. Moreover, since agriculture is highly dependent on climate, any changes to the regional climate from the optimum can induce crop failures.
1008:, the same one that would later bring the Black Death, the single deadliest pandemic in human history, but how many actually died from it remains uncertain. Current estimates put the figure between thirty and fifty million people, a significant portion of the human population at that time. The Plague arguably cemented the fate of Rome.
1638:" (that forces the majority to obey without meriting obedience), which fails to recognize new ways of thinking. He argues that creative minorities deteriorate from a worship of their "former self", by which they become prideful, and they fail in adequately addressing the next challenge that they face. Similarly, the German philosopher
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adopted. Many former serfs, now free from feudal obligations, relocated to the cities and changed profession to crafts and trades. The more successful ones became the new middle class. Trade flourished as demands for a myriad of consumer goods rose. Society became wealthier and could afford to fund the arts and the sciences.
846:. A ruthless but efficient ruler, he raised a disciplined and professional army and introduced a significant number of reforms, such as unifying the language and creating a single currency and system of measurement. In addition, he funded dam constructions and began building the first segment of what was to become the
1076:
agriculture in the Old World. As such, they had immune systems that were ill-equipped to handle the diseases to which their counterparts in
Eurasia had become resistant. When the Europeans arrived in the Americas, in short order, the indigenous populations of the Americas found themselves facing smallpox,
737:. The invasions transformed a settled society to a nomadic one. In China, for example, a combination of war, famine, and pestilence during the Mongol conquests halved the population, a decline of around 55 million people. The Mongols also displaced large numbers of people and created power vacuums. The
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repays injustice with resentment, fear with hate, and violence with violence when it executes its acts of secession. Yet the whole movement ends in positive acts of creation - and this on the part of all the actors in the tragedy of disintegration. The
Dominant Minority creates a universal state, the
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For
Toynbee, a civilization is born when a "creative minority" successfully responds to the challenges posed by its physical, social, and political environment. However, the fixation on the old methods of the "creative minority" leads it to eventually cease to be creative and degenerate into merely a
480:
temperature reconstruction suggests that historical periods of social unrest, societal collapse, and population crash and significant climate change often occurred simultaneously. A team of researchers from
Mainland China and Hong Kong were able to establish a causal connection between climate change
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has yet to be deciphered, the causes of its de-urbanization remain a mystery, but there is some evidence pointing to natural disasters. Signs of a gradual decline began to emerge in 1900 BC, and two centuries later, most of the cities had been abandoned. Archeological evidence suggests an increase in
399:
Archeologists have identified signs of a megadrought which lasted for a millennium between 5,000 and 4,000 years ago in Africa and Asia. The drying of the Green Sahara not only turned it into a desert but also disrupted the monsoon seasons in South and
Southeast Asia and caused flooding in East Asia,
289:
The social scientist Luke Kemp analyzed dozens of civilizations, which he defined as "a society with agriculture, multiple cities, military dominance in its geographical region and a continuous political structure," from 3000 BC to 600 AD and calculated that the average life span of a civilization is
261:
has not taken place at any point. Eisenstadt also points out that a clear differentiation between total or partial decline and "possibilities of regeneration" is crucial for the preventive purpose of the study of societal collapse. This frame of reference often rejects the term collapse and critiques
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Safa Motesharrei, Jorge Rivas, Eugenia Kalnay, Ghassem R. Asrar, Antonio J. Busalacchi, Robert F. Cahalan, Mark A. Cane, Rita R. Colwell, Kuishuang Feng, Rachel S. Franklin, Klaus Hubacek, Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, Takemasa Miyoshi, Matthias Ruth, Roald Sagdeev, Adel Shirmohammadi, Jagadish Shukla,
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In the Middle Ages, a famous although controversial example is offered by the siege of Caffa (now Feodossia in Ukraine/Crimea), a Genovese outpost on the Black Sea coast, by the Mongols. In 1346, the attacking army experienced an epidemic of bubonic plague. The Italian chronicler Gabriele de' Mussi,
1781:
However, Turchin's model can only paint the broader picture and cannot pinpoint how bad things can get and what precisely triggers a collapse. The mathematician Safa Motesharrei also applied predator-prey models to human society, with the upper class and the lower class being the two different types
1777:
were related to political instability. He found recurring cycles of unrest in historical societies such as Ancient Egypt, China, and Russia. He specifically identified two cycles, one long and one short. The long one, what he calls the "secular cycle," lasts for approximately two to three centuries.
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Developing an integrated theory of societal collapse that takes into account the complexity of human societies remains an open problem. Researchers currently have very little ability to identify internal structures of large distributed systems like human societies. Genuine structural collapse seems,
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As humans spread around the globe, human societies flourish and become more dependent on trade, and because urbanization means that people leave sparsely-populated rural areas for densely-populated neighborhoods, infectious diseases spread much more easily. Outbreaks are frequent, even in the modern
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With labor in short supply, workers' bargaining power increased dramatically. Various inventions that reduced the cost of labor, saved time, and raised productivity, such as the three-field crop rotation system, the iron plow, the use of manure to fertilize the soil, and the water pumps, were widely
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He argues that as civilizations decay, they form an "Internal Proletariat" and an "External Proletariat." The Internal proletariat is held in subjugation by the dominant minority inside the civilization, and grows bitter; the external proletariat exists outside the civilization in poverty and chaos
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have even warned of an incoming "antibiotic apocalypse." The World Health Organization warned in 2019 that the spread of vaccine scepticism has been accompanied by the resurrection of long-conquered diseases like measles. This lead the WHO to name the antivaccination movement one of the world's top
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Encounters between European explorers and Native Americans exposed the latter to a variety of diseases of extraordinary virulence. Having migrated from Northeastern Asia 15,000 years ago, Native Americans had not been introduced to the plethora of contagious diseases that emerged after the rise of
918:
Historically, the dawn of agriculture led to the rise of contagious diseases. Compared to their hunting-gathering counterparts, agrarian societies tended to be sedentary, have higher population densities, be in frequent contact with livestock, and be more exposed to contaminated water supplies and
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The mathematician Safa Motesharrei and his collaborators showed that the use of non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels allows populations to grow to one order of magnitude larger than they would using renewable resources alone and as such is able to postpone societal collapse. However, when
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in the formerly-polytheistic society, as Christians won public admiration for their good works. Ultimately the Roman army, the Roman cities, the size of the empire and its trade routes, which were required for Roman power and influence to exist, facilitated the spread of the disease. The Antonine
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In the early fourteenth century AD, Britain suffered repeated rounds of crop failures from unusually heavy rainfall and flooding. Much livestock either starved or drowned. Food prices skyrocketed, and King Edward II attempted to rectify the situation by imposing price controls, but vendors simply
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argued that a civilization in its "winter" would see a disinclination for abstract thinking. The psychologists David Rand and Jonathan Cohen theorized that people switch between two broad modes of thinking. The first is fast and automatic but rigid, and the second is slow and analytical but more
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and that soldiers who were transported from there brought the plague to Mediterranean ports. However, that account of the origin of the Black Death in Europe remains controversial, though plausible, because of the complex epidemiology of the plague. Modern epidemiologists do not believe that the
822:
of all other societies in the Eastern Mediterranean disrupted established trade routes and caused widespread economic depression. Government workers became underpaid, which resulted in the first labor strike in recorded history and undermined royal authority. There was also political infighting
357:
might be contributory factors of collapse, but studies of past societies seem to suggest that those factors did not cause the collapse alone. Significant inequity and exposed corruption may combine with lack of loyalty to established political institutions and result in an oppressed lower class
1455:
Energy has played a crucial role throughout human history. Energy is linked to the birth, growth, and decline of each and every society. Energy surplus is required for the division of labor and the growth of cities. Massive energy surplus is needed for widespread wealth and cultural amenities.
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population. The extent of the outbreak is disputed, but some sources claim that it killed about 50% of coastal Aboriginal populations on the east coast. There is an ongoing historical debate concerning two rival and irreconcilable theories about how the disease first entered the continent (see
447:
on the Ides of March (15 March) in 44 BC, which left a power vacuum and led to bloody civil wars. According to historical accounts, it was also a period of poor weather, crop failure, widespread famine, and disease. Analyses of tree rings and cave stalagmites from different parts of the globe
1100:
alone, including the emperor, and Peru in the 1530s, which aided the European conquerors. A combination of Spanish military attacks and evolutionarily novel diseases finished off the Aztec Empire in the sixteenth century. It is commonly believed that the death of as much as 90% or 95% of the
1023:
and captured Roman-held territories in the Caucasus, the Levant, Egypt, and elsewhere in North Africa. Before the Justinian Plague, the Mediterranean world had been commercially and culturally stable. After the Plague, it fractured into a trio of civilizations battling for power: the Islamic
1494:
The social scientist Luke Kemp indicated that alternative sources of energy, such as solar panels, have a low EROI because they have low energy density, meaning they require a lot of land, and require substantial amounts of rare earth metals to produce. Hall and colleagues reached the same
163:
Anthropologists, historians, and sociologists have proposed a variety of explanations for the collapse of civilizations involving causative factors such as environmental degradation, depletion of resources, costs of rising complexity, invasion, disease, decay of social cohesion, growing
452:
recorded that there was a lack of flooding in Egypt, which also faced famine and pestilence. Rome's interest in Egypt as a source of food intensified, and the aforementioned problems and civil unrest weakened Egypt's ability to resist. Egypt came under Roman rule after
1279:
During the Roman Empire, citizen employment was vastly being replaced by slave labor. Slaves were replacing many of the jobs citizens were doing. Slaves were receiving apprenticeships and education and were even learning to replace the jobs of skilled craftsman.
754:
erupted between the Trịnh family in the north and the Nguyễn family in the south. More Cham provinces were seized by the Nguyễn warlords. Finally, Nguyễn Ánh emerged victorious and declared himself Emperor of Vietnam (changing the name from Annam) with the title
1606:
With those facts in mind, collapse can simply be understood as a loss of the energy needed to maintain social complexity. Collapse is thus the sudden loss of social complexity, stratification, internal and external communication and exchange, and productivity.
1447:, Jared Diamond proposes five interconnected causes of collapse that may reinforce each other: non-sustainable exploitation of resources, climate changes, diminishing support from friendly societies, hostile neighbors, and inappropriate attitudes for change.
1782:
of "predators" and natural resources being the "prey." He found that either extreme inequality or resource depletion facilitates a collapse. However, a collapse is irreversible only if a society experiences both at the same time, as they "fuel each other."
1499:
collapse finally comes, it is much more dramatic. Tainter warned that in the modern world, if the supply of fossil fuels were somehow cut off, shortages of clean water and food would ensue, and millions would die in a few weeks in the worst-case scenario.
1423:, is extraordinary modern economic productivity. Tainter argues that exceptional productivity is actually more the sign of hidden weakness because of a society's dependence on it and its potential to undermine its own basis for success by not being
606:, began threatening China's frontiers, but by the first century BC, they had been completely expelled. They then turned their attention westward and displaced various other tribes in Eastern and Central Europe, which led to a cascade of events.
1330:
alone is not enough to trigger general decline if the people remained united and the ruling class strong. Other factors had to be involved, such as having more aspirants for positions of the elite than the society could realistically support
809:
shipped large amounts of grain to the disintegrating Hittite Empire. Thus, there had been a food shortage in Anatolia but not the Nile Valley. However, that soon changed. Although Egypt managed to deliver a decisive and final defeat to the
1474:
There would be no surplus if EROI approaches 1:1. Hall showed that the real cutoff is well above that and estimated that 3:1 to sustain the essential overhead energy costs of a modern society. The EROI of the most preferred energy source,
1625:
explored the rise and fall of 28 civilizations and came to the conclusion that civilizations generally collapsed mainly by internal factors, factors of their own making, but external pressures also played a role. He theorized that all
266:
are often touted as a prime example of collapse, in reality this reorganization was simply the result of the removal of the political system of Divine Kingship largely in the eastern lowlands as many cities in the western highlands of
1495:
conclusion. There is no on-site pollution, but the EROI of renewable energy sources may be too low for them to be considered a viable alternative to fossil fuels, which continue to provide the majority of the energy used by humans.
1296:
Paying for the dole required high levels of government spending, exacerbating the Roman debt and also producing inflation. With slavery replacing most labor, tax revenues also plummeted, further exacerbating the government's debt.
1758:
in many cases, the only plausible explanation supporting the idea that such structures exist. However, until they can be concretely identified, scientific inquiry appears limited to the construction of scientific narratives, using
823:
between different factions of government. Bad harvest from the reduced flooding at the Nile led to a major famine. Food prices rose to eight times their normal values and occasionally even reached twenty-four times. Runaway
1002:, the epidemic originated in China and Northeastern India and reached the Eastern Roman Empire via trade routes terminating in the Mediterranean. Modern scholarship has deduced that the epidemic was caused by the bacterium
741:
went into decline and was replaced by the Thais, who were pushed southward by the Mongols. The Vietnamese, who succeeded in defeating the Mongols, also turned their attention to the south and by 1471 began to subjugate the
1588:
Tainter considers that social complexity is a recent and comparatively-anomalous occurrence, requiring constant support. He asserts that collapse is best understood by grasping four axioms. In his own words (p. 194):
1749:, who viewed human history as broadly the history of civilizations and posited that the world after the end of the Cold War will be multipolar and one of competing major civilizations, which are divided by "fault lines."
1584:
Tainter argues that those models, though superficially useful, cannot severally or jointly account for all instances of societal collapse. Often, they are seen as interconnected occurrences that reinforce one another.
317:
A statistical analysis of empires by complex systems specialist Samuel Arbesman suggests that collapse is generally a random event and does not depend on age. That is analogous to what evolutionary biologists call the
1141:
in 1928, has resulted in the saving of the lives of hundreds of millions of people suffering from bacterial infections. However, there is no guarantee that would continue because bacteria are becoming increasingly
981:
In the sixth century AD, while the Western Roman Empire had already succumbed to attacks by the Germanic tribes, the Eastern Roman Empire stood its ground. In fact, a peace treaty with the Persians allowed Emperor
1559:, a society that has grown to be so large and include so many complex social institutions that it is inherently unstable and prone to collapse. This type of society has been seen with particular frequency among
1137:, but in the developed world and increasingly also in the developing world, people are less likely to fall victim to infectious diseases than ever before. For instance, the advent of antibiotics, starting with
1133:
era, but medical advances have been able to alleviate their impacts. In fact, the human population grew tremendously in the twentieth century, as did the population of farm animals, from which diseases could
3087:("The data show that the modern period is very different to what occurred in the past. The often quoted Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are real phenomena, but small compared to the recent changes.")
3602:
Weber, N. (2012). The destruction and assimilation of Campā (1832-35) as seen from Cam sources. Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, 43(1), 158-180. Retrieved 3 June 2020, from www.jstor.org/stable/41490300
720:
and began his campaign of territorial expansion. The Mongols' highly flexible and mobile cavalry enabled them to conquer their enemies with efficiency and swiftness. In the brutal pillaging that followed
3302:
Haak, Wolfgang; Lazaridis, Iosif; Patterson, Nick; Rohland, Nadin; Mallick, Swapan; Llamas, Bastien; Brandt, Guido; Nordenfelt, Susanne; Harney, Eadaoin; Stewardson, Kristin; Fu, Qiaomei (11 June 2015).
1314:
Several key features of human societal collapse can be related to population dynamics. For example, the native population of Cusco, Peru at the time of the Spanish conquest was stressed by an imbalanced
577:(EEFs) from the European gene pool, significantly altering the cultural and genetic landscape of Europe. EEF mtDNA however remained frequent, suggesting admixture between WSH males and EEF females.
888:
in New Zealand erupting in 1314. The Great Famine was, however, only one of the calamities striking Europe that century, as the Hundred Years' War and Black Death would soon follow. (Also see the
1773:
noticed that the equations used to model the populations of predators and preys can also be used to describe the ontogeny of human societies. He specifically examined how social factors such as
228:(1988), a seminal and founding work of the academic discipline on societal collapse. He elaborates that 'collapse' is a "broad term," but in the sense of societal collapse, he views it as "a
1129:). Smallpox continued to be a deadly disease and killed an estimated 300 million people in the twentieth century alone, but a vaccine, the first of any kind, had been available since 1796.
1370:
Historical theories have evolved from being purely social and ethical, to ideological and ethnocentric, and finally to multidisciplinary studies. They have become much more sophisticated.
1300:
To pay off the enormous debt, the Romans began to devalue the currency and produce more coinage. Eventually, this overwhelmed the Roman Empire and partially contributed to its collapse.
994:, achieved a number of important victories against the Ostrogoths and the Vandals. However, their hope of keeping the Western Empire was dashed by the arrival of what became known as the
642:
out of their territories and made those groups press their way into parts of France, Spain, Italy, and even as far south as North Africa. The city of Rome itself came under attack by the
1289:
As taxes fell, so did government revenue. To compensate for this economic slowdown and mitigate the high levels of poverty, the Roman government implemented a form of welfare called the
3640:
476:
More generally, recent research pointed to climate change as a key player in the decline and fall of historical societies in China, the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas. In fact,
2749:
588:
in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is possible that the Sea Peoples were themselves victims of the environmental changes that led to widespread famine and precipitated the Collapse.
4171:
Bos, Kirsten I.; Harkins, Kelly M.; Herbig, Alexander; Coscolla, Mireia; Weber, Nico; Comas, Iñaki; Forrest, Stephen A.; Bryant, Josephine M.; Harris, Simon R. (23 October 2014).
1502:
Homer-Dixon asserted that a declining EROI was one of the reasons that the Roman Empire declined and fell. The historian Joseph Tainter made the same claim about the Maya Empire.
1567:
nations, in which all social organizations are arms of the government or ruling party, such that the government must either stifle association wholesale (encouraging dissent and
2374:
333:
Because human societies are complex systems, common factors may contribute to their decline that are economical, environmental, demographic, social and cultural, and they may
374:
2703:
The Diplomat – The Diplomat is a current-affairs magazine for the Asia-Pacific, with news and analysis on politics, security, business, technology and life across the region
831:(~1187–1064 BC), Egypt devolved from a major power in the Mediterranean to a deeply divided and weakened state, which later came to be ruled by the Libyans and the Nubians.
503:
devastated much of Europe and was one of the many political upheavals during the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century, which is causally linked to the Little Ice Age.
152:
Virtually all civilizations have suffered such a fate, regardless of their size or complexity. Most never recovered, such as the Western and Eastern Roman Empires, the
4357:
1667:
First the Dominant Minority attempts to hold by force - against all right and reason - a position of inherited privilege which it has ceased to merit; and then the
468:
Global average temperatures show that the Little Ice Age was not a distinct global time period but the end of a long temperature decline, which preceded the recent
1102:
262:
the notion that cultures simply vanish when the political structures that organize labor for large archaeologically prominent projects do. For example, while the
523:
being exceedingly rare. Episodes of social instability track the cooling with a time lap of up to 15 years, and many developed into armed conflicts, such as the
1441:
The complete breakdown of economic, cultural, and social institutions with ecological relationships is perhaps the most common feature of collapse. In his book
685:'s populous and flourishing civilization collapsed after it had exhausted its resources in internal fighting and suffering devastation from the invasion of the
3539:
959:
Plague is considered by some historians as a useful starting point for understanding the decline and fall of the Western Roman Empire. It was followed by the
5887:
5226:
5183:
5152:
2135:, two-thirds of the almost 700,000 dead were victims of smallpox, dysentery, typhoid, malaria, and pneumonia, collectively referred to as the "Third Army."
2724:
1430:
As a population grows and technology makes it easier to exploit depleting resources, the environment's diminishing returns are hidden from view. Societal
5017:
1434:
is then potentially threatened if it develops beyond what is actually sustainable, and a disorderly reorganization were to follow. The scissors model of
337:
and build up to the point that could overwhelm any mechanisms that would otherwise maintain stability. Unexpected and abrupt changes, which experts call
1514:(1990), too many scholars offer facile explanations of societal collapse by assuming one or more of the following three models in the face of collapse:
1120:
Similar events took place in Oceania and Madagascar. Smallpox was externally brought to Australia. The first recorded outbreak, in 1789, devastated the
793:
271:
maintained this system of divine kingship into the 16th century. The Maya continue to maintain cultural and linguistic continuity into the present day.
618:(modern-day France). Attila's Huns were clashing with the Roman Empire, which had already been divided into two-halves for ease of administration: the
232:
process." He further narrows societal collapse as a rapid process (within "few decades") of "substantial loss of sociopolitical structure," giving the
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1443:
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collapse, in which the population grows without limit but not resources, is the idea of great opposing environmental forces cutting into each other.
241:
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in Europe, which was a period of inclement weather, crop failure, economic hardship, extreme intergroup violence, and high mortality because of the
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R. Alan Covey, Geoff Childs, Rebecca Kippen Source: Current Anthropology, Vol. 52, No. 3 (June 2011), pp. 335-360: The University of Chicago Press
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400:
which prevented successful harvests and the development of complex culture. It coincided with and may have caused the decline and the fall of the
1283:
Since slaves do not pay taxes and were replacing most jobs from citizens, this reduced the revenue the state could accrue from their citizens.
464:
850:
to defend his realm against northern nomads. Nevertheless, internal feuds and rebellions made his empire fall apart after his death in 210 B.C.
149:
by rival civilizations. A collapsed society may revert to a more primitive state, be absorbed into a stronger society, or completely disappear.
6178:
484:
The Mongol conquests corresponded to a period of cooling in the Northern Hemisphere between the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, when the
5097:
3648:
658:. A combination of internal strife, economic weakness, and relentless invasions by the Germanic peoples pushed the Western Roman Empire into
573:
by most contemporary linguists, archaeologists, and geneticists. The expansion of WSHs resulted in the virtual disappearance of the Y-DNA of
1540:). This type of society, based almost exclusively on acquisition (such as pillaging or exploitation), cannot be sustained indefinitely. The
926:, which included coughing, fever, (blackish) diarrhea, swollen throat, and thirst, modern experts identified the probable culprits of the
5231:
1363:
1096:, and others appeared. Most of these tropical diseases were traced to Africa. Smallpox ravaged Mexico in the 1520s and killed 150,000 in
157:
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4306:
448:
provided complementary data. The Northern Hemisphere got drier, but the Southern Hemisphere became wetter. Indeed, the Greek historian
394:
2698:
488:
was giving way to the Little Ice Age, which caused ecological stress. In Europe, the cooling climate did not directly facilitate the
896:
complement historical records and show that the summers of 1314–1316 were some of the wettest on record over a period of 700 years.
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1286:
This high level of unemployment also led to high levels of poverty, which reduced demand for businesses relying on slave labor.
5010:
3971:
3866:
3082:
910:
768:
1247:
771:. Vietnam's policy of assimilation involved the forcefeeding of pork to Muslims and beef to Hindus, which fueled resentment. An
3741:
2072:' for a chart of the death rate (per 100,000) of the Thirty Years' War compared to other armed conflicts between 1400 and 2000.
638:
were ravaged. The Huns never again posed a threat to the Romans after Attila's death, but the rise of the Huns also forced the
2495:
1219:
725:
during the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, the invaders decimated the populations of China, Russia, the Middle East, and
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4821:
4127:
3807:
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ancestry, embarked on a massive expansion throughout Eurasia, which is considered to be associated with the dispersal of the
527:(1618–1648), which started as a war of succession to the Bohemian throne. Animosity between Protestants and Catholics in the
17:
4938:"Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies"
5354:
4374:
4334:
914:
The angel of death striking a door during the plague of Rome; engraving by Levasseur after Jules-Elie Delaunay (1828–1891).
4747:
4354:
2176:
5909:
5349:
5248:
4635:"Modeling sustainability: population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and Human Systems"
4608:
Homer-Dixon, Thomas (2007), "The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization" (Knopf, Canada)
1351:
1226:
457:
committed suicide in 30 BC. While it is difficult to say for certain whether Egypt would have become a Roman province if
257:, or "reorganization", especially if collapse is understood as a "complete end" of political systems, which according to
6309:
5003:
4855:
1196:
954:, but others blamed Christians. However, the Antonine Plague strengthened the position of the monotheistic religion of
788:
2587:
2282:
Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Kemp, Luke; Kohler, Timothy A.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Xu, Chi (28 November 2023).
5329:
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4775:
4528:
4265:
3681:
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3166:
Zhang, David D.; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F.; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane (4 December 2007). Ehrlich, Paul R. (ed.).
2029:
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that by around 1600, their society had fallen into a downward spiral of warfare, cannibalism, and population decline.
1266:
224:
1602:
investment in sociopolitical complexity as a problem-solving response reaches a point of declining marginal returns.
1204:
733:, destroyed many cities, slaughtered thousands of people, and irreparably damaged the ancient irrigation systems of
5894:
5590:
2463:
Beyond Collapse: Archaeological Perspectives on Resilience, Revitalization, and Transformation in Complex Societies
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233:
45:
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1945:
970:
905:
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T.F. Allen, J.A. Tainter et al. 2001 Dragnet Ecology: The Privilege of Science in a Postmodern World. BioScience
3942:
1395:, it becomes progressively harder for there to be a technological solution to the problem of societal collapse.
963:(249–262 AD) and the Plague of Justinian (541-542). Together, they cracked the foundations of the Roman Empire.
415:
took root around 3000 BC in what is now northwestern India and Pakistan and collapsed around 1700 BC. Since the
5299:
4942:
3102:
Zhang, David D.; Lee, Harry F.; Wang, Cong; Li, Baosheng; Pei, Qing; Zhang, Jane; An, Yulun (18 October 2011).
1382:
theorized that collapsed societies essentially exhausted their own designs and were unable to adapt to natural
1200:
889:
667:
444:
325:
Contemporary discussions about societal collapse are seeking resilience by suggesting societal transformation.
4920:, Chapter 6, "Sustainability or Collapse", New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, British Columbia, Canada,
1630:
pass through several distinct stages: genesis, growth, time of troubles, universal state, and disintegration.
1215:
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877:
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Toynbee argues that the ultimate sign a civilization has broken down is when the dominant minority forms a
839:
760:
751:
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and more recently, have argued that societies discussed as cases of collapse are better understood through
153:
142:
4143:
4097:
2833:
Robbins-Schug, G.; Blevins, K. Elaine; Cox, Brett; Gray, Kelsey; Mushrif-Tripathy, Veena (December 2013).
1677:
and grows envious. He argues that as civilizations decay, there is a "schism in the body social", whereby
385:
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6473:
6222:
5421:
5371:
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Andrew G. Robertson, and Laura J. Robertson. "From asps to allegations: biological warfare in history,"
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1717:
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and established the Nguyễn dynasty. The last remaining principality of Champa, Panduranga (modern-day
6352:
6285:
6128:
5860:
5855:
5729:
5559:
5401:
5188:
4908:
3997:
Worlds Together, Worlds Apart A History of the World: From the Beginnings of Humankind to the Present
2784:
2402:
1309:
1020:
562:
412:
4307:"Rome's Runaway Inflation: Currency Devaluation in the Fourth and Fifth Centuries | Mises Institute"
1672:
Internal Proletariat a universal church, and the External Proletariat a bevy of barbarian war-bands.
37:
6458:
6347:
6242:
6168:
5995:
5624:
5324:
5026:
4897:
3835:
1930:
1860:
1533:
1392:
1185:
1143:
884:
and the start of the Little Ice Age. Some historians suspect that the change in climate was due to
819:
798:
585:
554:
341:, are some of the warning signs. In some cases, a natural disaster (such as a tsunami, earthquake,
61:
3589:
1316:
553:, probably due to the plague and other viral hemorrhagic fevers. This decline was followed by the
389:
The Indus Valley Civilization likely de-urbanized and shifted because of changes in crop patterns.
6557:
6453:
6022:
5877:
5173:
3493:
3282:
2007:
1652:
1424:
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wrote that the Mongols catapulted the corpses of those who contracted the plague into Caffa (now
570:
280:
254:
169:
102:
404:
in Mesopotamia and the Indus Valley Civilization. The dramatic shift in climate is known as the
6468:
6302:
6249:
6143:
5966:
5811:
5169:
2107:
1950:
1240:
1121:
974:
574:
566:
346:
322:, which asserts that for a species in a harsh ecology, extinction is a persistent possibility.
134:
4173:"Pre-Columbian mycobacterial genomes reveal seals as a source of New World human tuberculosis"
3673:
Southern Vietnam Under the Reign of Minh Mạng (1820-1841): Central Policies and Local Response
3671:
5872:
5684:
5146:
5107:
4676:
4157:
3613:
2448:
Questioning Collapse: Human Resilience, Ecological Vulnerability, and the Aftermath of Empire
2099:
1571:) or exercise less authority than it asserts (undermining its legitimacy in the public eye).
1456:
Economic prospects fluctuate in tandem with a society's access to cheap and abundant energy.
1412:
1338:
1147:
951:
835:
726:
4620:
Hall, Charles 2009 "What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have" ENERGIES
2937:"Evidence for Tectonic Activity During the Mature Harappan Civilization, 2600-1800 BCE"
2625:
6237:
6034:
5936:
5801:
5763:
5513:
5317:
5211:
4951:
4581:
4408:
4355:
Dynamics of Indigenous Demographic Fluctuations: Lessons from Sixteenth-Century Cusco, Peru
4184:
3326:
3179:
3045:
2979:
2948:
2892:
Lawler, A. (6 June 2008). "Indus Collapse: The End or the Beginning of an Asian Culture?".
2846:
2537:
2295:
2254:
1935:
1799:
1746:
1332:
1164:
966:
881:
806:
772:
623:
619:
524:
500:
485:
362:. The diversity of forms that societies evolve corresponds to diversity in their failures.
350:
319:
284:
1739:
remained popular outside academia. Interest revived decades later with the publication of
1552:
Empires, for example, all fractured and collapsed when no new conquests could be achieved.
8:
6378:
6158:
6029:
5951:
5549:
5495:
5443:
5406:
5396:
5102:
2832:
2479:
Shmuel Eisenstadt (1991). "Beyond Collapse". In Norman Yoffee; George L. Cowgill (eds.).
2111:
2049:
2034:
2002:
1940:
1925:
1383:
1146:, and doctors and public health experts such as former Chief Medical Officer for England
1126:
995:
986:
to concentrate on recapturing territories belonging to the Western Empire. His generals,
847:
815:
373:
In the case of the Western Roman Empire, some argued that it did not collapse but merely
173:
160:. However, some of them later revived and transformed, such as China, Greece, and Egypt.
4955:
4585:
4412:
4188:
3583:
3330:
3183:
3049:
2983:
2952:
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2541:
2318:
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2131:, for every British soldier who got killed in action, eight died of disease. During the
747:
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3130:
3103:
2917:
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2815:
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2521:
2132:
1987:
1617:
1464:
1460:
663:
655:
647:
508:
405:
354:
130:
3798:
Cochran, Gregory; Harpending, Henry (2009). "Chapter 4: Consequences of Agriculture".
3305:"Massive migration from the steppe was a source for Indo-European languages in Europe"
3074:
2750:"Collapse of civilizations worldwide defines youngest unit of the Geologic Time Scale"
2725:"Ancient megadrought may explain civilization's 'missing millennia' in Southeast Asia"
345:, massive fire or climate change) may precipitate a collapse. Other factors such as a
6314:
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1972:
1885:
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263:
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200:
165:
126:
98:
94:
4455:
4282:"The Welfare State: The History Behind It – Government Policy: The Pros and (E)cons"
3147:
3000:
Earthquakes and civilizations of the Indus Valley: A challenge for archaeoseismology
2782:
827:
followed. Attacks by the Libyans and Nubians made things even worse. Throughout the
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2864:
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2621:
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2313:
2303:
2284:"The vulnerability of aging states: A survival analysis across premodern societies"
2262:
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1855:
1759:
1482:
1323:
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noted that all of the lands ravaged by Banu Hilal invaders had become arid desert.
639:
595:
477:
338:
295:
4438:
2905:
2221:
2202:
775:, the first and only war between Vietnam and the jihadists, until it was crushed.
591:
461:(in modern-day Alaska) had not erupted, the eruption likely hastened the process.
6514:
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6133:
5704:
5564:
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3003:. Geological Society of America Special Papers. Vol. 471. pp. 119–127.
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1004:
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401:
291:
6434:
4748:"The Evolution of Civilizations - An Introduction to Historical Analysis (1979)"
4594:
4569:
4378:
4331:
3895:
2835:"Infection, Disease, and Biosocial Process at the End of the Indus Civilization"
1097:
492:, but it caused wars, mass migration, and famine, which helped diseases spread.
431:
Volcanic eruptions can abruptly influence the climate. During a large eruption,
370:, loss of soil fertility, restrictions of trade and/or rising endemic violence.
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5990:
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5129:
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4933:
4896:
by Prof. Michael Kelly, disagreeing with the paper by Ehrlich and Ehrlich; and
4516:
4073:
Rakibul Hasan, "Biological Weapons: covert threats to Global Health Security."
3425:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
3259:
3238:
3172:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
3108:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2803:
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2012:
1992:
1870:
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1813:
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138:
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6413:
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5971:
5845:
5840:
5835:
5751:
5339:
5280:
5243:
5195:
4972:
4831:
4204:
4144:"BBC - History - British History in depth: Smallpox: Eradicating the Scourge"
3346:
2651:
2641:
2358:
1997:
1982:
1913:
1850:
1770:
1549:
1403:
1359:
1355:
843:
764:
709:
675:
367:
363:
334:
246:
4995:
4909:
The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization
4760:
Harry J Hogan in the foreword (p17) and Quigley in the conclusion (p416) to
4568:
Hall, Charles A.S.; Lambert, Jessica G.; Balogh, Stephen B. (January 2014).
4481:
4030:
4013:
3698:
3581:
3437:
3379:
3192:
3168:"Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history"
3120:
2783:
Robbins-Schug, G.; Gray, K.M.; Mushrif, V.; Sankhyan, A.R. (November 2012).
2550:
2308:
6439:
6373:
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5946:
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5724:
5714:
5617:
5463:
5361:
5307:
5216:
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4886:
4868:
4668:
4498:
4430:
4222:
4098:"BBC - History - British History in depth: Black Death: The lasting impact"
4039:
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3364:
3287:
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3211:
3139:
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2811:
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1977:
1902:
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1721:
1627:
1560:
1545:
1290:
1114:
1089:
1085:
955:
947:
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717:
682:
580:
A mysterious loose confederation of fierce maritime marauders known as the
440:
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416:
307:
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204:
192:
184:
4811:
495:
6418:
5961:
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5085:
5070:
4915:
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3565:
3563:
2115:
2095:
2017:
1890:
1880:
1769:
In the 1990s, the evolutionary anthropologist and quantitative historian
1668:
1044:
983:
811:
734:
698:
690:
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581:
489:
458:
311:
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50:
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2081:
The Vandals thus made themselves the origin of the modern English word '
6368:
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6138:
5926:
5914:
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5162:
4621:
4120:
The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution
3800:
The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution
3104:"The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis"
2699:"Revealed: The Truth Behind the Indus Valley Civilization's 'Collapse'"
1919:
1686:
1568:
1435:
1431:
1138:
987:
977:
often killed a high percentage of the population in the affected cities
694:
540:
359:
177:
106:
4766:
The evolution of civilizations: an introduction to historical analysis
3718:
3560:
3548:
3518:
3218:
3058:
3033:
716:
In 1206, a warlord achieved dominance over all Mongols with the title
236:
as "the most widely known instance of collapse" in the Western world.
113:. Possible causes of a societal collapse include natural catastrophe,
6110:
5899:
5828:
5773:
5768:
5634:
5475:
5381:
5124:
4456:"Why a two-state solution doesn't guarantee peace in the Middle East"
4118:
Cochran, Gregory; Harpending, Henry (2010). "Chapter 6: Expansions".
3034:"An Alaskan volcano, climate change, and the history of ancient Rome"
2082:
1962:
1865:
1840:
1564:
1476:
1110:
1106:
1052:
1025:
999:
939:
938:. The disease likely started in China and spread to the West via the
893:
824:
643:
614:
and initiated a campaign of invasions and looting and went as far as
454:
196:
4421:
4396:
3915:
3867:"History's deadliest pandemics, from ancient Rome to modern America"
3475:
3463:
2764:
1599:
increased complexity carries with it increased costs per capita; and
1174:
1084:, and the bubonic plague, among others. In tropical areas, malaria,
1067:
1031:
853:
6403:
6388:
5919:
5904:
5806:
5644:
5092:
3771:"One of Europe's worst famines likely caused by devastating floods"
3321:
2612:
Joseph A. Tainter (2006). "Archaeology of Overshoot and Collapse".
1967:
1713:
1705:
1134:
1016:
931:
778:
756:
630:
in 451 AD, the Romans were unable to prevent Attila from attacking
520:
342:
306:
in Mesoamerica (both 1,000 years), and the shortest-lived were the
146:
118:
110:
1821:
1529:, a society whose continuing function depends on constant growth (
1427:, as demonstrated in Western culture's ideal of perpetual growth.
1039:
There is evidence that the Mongol expeditions may have spread the
6521:
6383:
6232:
6069:
6059:
5867:
5679:
5391:
5386:
4523:(1st paperback ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
2519:
1716:(removal of oneself from the realities of a decaying world), and
1077:
935:
686:
671:
651:
603:
598:
played an important role in the fall of the Western Roman Empire.
421:
188:
90:
4633:
Jelena Srebric, Victor M. Yakovenko, Ning Zeng (December 2016).
2997:
Kovach, Robert L.; Grijalva, Kelly; Nur, Amos (1 October 2010).
2785:"A Peaceful Realm? Trauma and Social Differentiation at Harappa"
2445:
2354:"End of days: Is Western civilisation on the brink of collapse?"
1386:
for what they knew as their method of survival. The philosopher
6393:
6319:
1845:
1487:
991:
743:
607:
449:
303:
122:
3537:
Ibn Battuta's Trip: Part Three - Persia and Iraq (1326 - 1327)
3291:. Faculty of Science - University of Copenhagen. 4 April 2017.
2375:"'Society could end in less than a decade,' predicts academic"
1071:
Aztec victims of smallpox, from the Florentine Codex (1540–85)
838:
in China ended by King Zheng of the Qin dynasty succeeding in
358:
rising up and seizing power from a smaller wealthy elite in a
6064:
5823:
3972:"How three prior pandemics triggered massive societal shifts"
3301:
2752:. News and Meetings. International Commission on Stratigraphy
2114:
and before the Second Indochinese War, commonly known as the
1875:
923:
876:
In Continental Europe, things were at least just as bad. The
730:
635:
4047:
Istoria de Morbo sive Mortalitate quae fuit Anno Domini 1348
2243:"Panicking about societal collapse? Plunder the bookshelves"
1596:
sociopolitical systems require energy for their maintenance;
6408:
2935:
Grijalva, K.A.; Kovach, L.R.; Nur, A.M. (1 December 2006).
1373:
615:
611:
4917:
Technofix: Why Technology Won’t Save Us or the Environment
4570:"EROI of Different Fuels and the Implications for Society"
3283:"Steppe migrant thugs pacified by Stone Age farming women"
3236:
3641:"The Uprisings of Katip Sumat and Ja Thak Wa (1833-1835)"
2434:. New Studies in Archaeology. Cambridge University Press.
2281:
1019:
seized the opportunity to launch military campaigns that
950:, both of whom victims of the disease, of affronting the
114:
4482:"Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability"
4170:
922:
From the description of symptoms by the Greek physician
602:
In the third century BC, a Eurasian nomadic people, the
3582:
Elijah Coleman Bridgman; Samuel Wells Willaims (1847).
2465:. Occasional Paper. Southern Illinois University Press.
1047:
of the early fourteenth century. The Italian historian
534:
420:
interpersonal violence and in infectious diseases like
380:
290:
close to 340 years. Of them, the most durable were the
4931:
4914:
Huesemann, Michael H., and Joyce A. Huesemann (2011).
2403:"How Do You Know When Society Is About to Fall Apart?"
6486:
5227:
Self-indication assumption doomsday argument rebuttal
2522:"Societal collapse or transformation, and resilience"
1704:
He argues that in that environment, people resort to
1486:
During the course of the 15th century, nearly all of
5153:
Safety of high-energy particle collision experiments
3611:
3575:
2968:"Tectonic Activity during the Harappan Civilization"
2692:
2690:
2520:
Leonie J. Pearson; Craig J. Pearson (24 July 2012).
1789:
1419:
What produces modern sedentary life, unlike nomadic
1398:
1117:
from seals and sea lions played a significant part.
842:
and thus becoming the first Chinese emperor, titled
366:
suggests that societies have also collapsed through
4851:"Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?"
4810:
4716:"The Return of Civilization—and of Arnold Toynbee?"
4375:"Population crises and cycles in history - OzIdeas"
3999:(2nd ed. 2008) ch. 11 pp. 472–75 and map pp. 476–77
3921:
3724:
3569:
3554:
3524:
3481:
3469:
3224:
2770:
4763:
2460:
1593:human societies are problem-solving organizations;
1322:There is strong evidence that humans also display
1043:across much of Eurasia, which helped to spark the
767:(Nguyễn Phúc Đảm) conquered it after centuries of
4567:
4117:
3797:
3237:Rascovan, N; Sjögren, KG; Kristiansen, K (2019).
2996:
2934:
2687:
2647:Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed
2611:
2478:
2446:Patricia A. McAnany; Norman Yoffee, eds. (2009).
2429:
1663:, which stifles political creativity. He states:
1444:Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed
1293:, providing citizens free money and free grain.
551:neolithic populations in western Eurasia declined
6534:
6281:List of apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction
4014:"History of biological warfare and bioterrorism"
3165:
3066:
2481:The Collapse of Ancient States and Civilizations
998:(541-542). According to the Byzantine historian
779:Famine, economic depression, and internal strife
584:was identified as one of the main causes of the
239:Others, particularly in response to the popular
4816:. Washington, D.C.: National Geographic. 2007.
4761:
3669:
2526:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
2288:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
203:. More recently, they are joined by experts in
6179:List of dates predicted for apocalyptic events
4845:
3101:
2400:
2372:
2177:"Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?"
1505:
1450:
763:, Vietnam), survived until 1832, when Emperor
5184:Existential risk from artificial intelligence
5025:
5011:
4158:"Guns Germs & Steel: Variables. Smallpox"
4012:Barras, Vincent; Greub, Gilbert (June 2014).
2966:Prasad, Manika; Nur, Amos (1 December 2001).
2474:
2472:
2094:North and South here are with respect to the
1154:
557:. Around 3,000 BC, people of the pastoralist
4681:: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (
2696:
1897:Malthusian and environmental collapse themes
1610:
818:, Egypt itself went into steep decline. The
634:the next year. Northern Italian cities like
5232:Self-referencing doomsday argument rebuttal
4979:. New York: Carroll & Graf Publishers.
4011:
3239:"Emergence and Spread of Basal Lineages of
1203:. Unsourced material may be challenged and
1035:Spread of the Bubonic plague through Europe
5335:Climate change and civilizational collapse
5018:
5004:
4720:Comparative Studies in Society and History
4075:Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies
3742:"The Great Flood and Great Famine of 1314"
3605:
2671:
2469:
1957:Cultural and institutional collapse themes
395:Climate change and civilizational collapse
4963:
4876:
4731:
4658:
4593:
4497:
4420:
4212:
4122:. United States of America: Basic Books.
4029:
3864:
3802:. United States of America: Basic Books.
3663:
3618:. Parkstone International. pp. 25–.
3446:
3436:
3354:
3320:
3258:
3201:
3191:
3129:
3119:
3057:
2965:
2868:
2858:
2588:"How Western civilisation could collapse"
2559:
2549:
2425:
2423:
2317:
2307:
2266:
2220:
2069:
1267:Learn how and when to remove this message
801:(c. 1200 BC) in the Eastern Mediterranean
626:. Despite managing to stop Attila at the
509:General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century
6338:Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
6276:Apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction
3506:Populations Crises and Population Cycles
2496:"The lifespans of ancient civilisations"
2394:
2203:"Societal collapse: A literature review"
2200:
1766:about systemic organization and change.
1481:
1402:
1374:Cognitive decline and loss of creativity
1350:
1337:
1066:
1030:
965:
909:
852:
792:
703:
590:
494:
463:
384:
4699:(Cambridge University Press) pp. 59-60.
4544:Jared Diamond on why societies collapse
4515:
4479:
4394:
4343:Population Crises and Population cycles
4332:Population crises and cycles in history
3072:
2792:International Journal of Paleopathology
2626:10.1146/annurev.anthro.35.081705.123136
2373:Pasha-Robinson, Lucy (7 January 2017).
2351:
2240:
1407:During the 9th century AD, the central
1303:
1113:diseases, though new research suggests
750:went into decline in the late 1700s, a
294:in Northeast Africa (1,150 years), the
14:
6535:
4709:
4707:
4705:
4563:
4561:
4559:
4255:
3969:
3965:
3963:
3936:
3934:
3932:
3930:
3893:
3889:
3887:
3865:Rosenwald, Michael S. (7 April 2020).
3860:
3858:
3856:
3836:"Visualizing the History of Pandemics"
3829:
3827:
3825:
3823:
3821:
3819:
3793:
3791:
3768:
3764:
3762:
3735:
3733:
3418:
3414:
3412:
3410:
3408:
3406:
3404:
3402:
3161:
3159:
3157:
3097:
3095:
3093:
3031:
2891:
2697:Pillalamarri, Akhilesh (2 June 2016).
2420:
1415:, marked by the abandonment of cities.
298:in East Africa (1,100 years), and the
4999:
4849:; Ehrlich, Anne H. (9 January 2013).
4813:Essential Visual History of the World
4713:
4616:
4614:
4511:
4509:
4450:
4448:
4390:
4388:
4113:
4111:
4109:
4107:
4007:
4005:
3940:
3833:
3085:from the original on 2 February 2020.
2637:
2635:
2582:
2347:
2345:
2343:
2341:
2339:
2337:
1579:
328:
274:
5355:Tipping points in the climate system
4345:by Claire Russell and W M S Russell.
3943:"Covid-19: The history of pandemics"
3697:Mark, Joshua J. (2 September 2009).
3696:
3676:. SEAP Publications. pp. 141–.
3421:"Collapse, environment, and society"
3378:Mark, Joshua J. (2 September 2009).
3377:
3032:Wilson, R. Mark (1 September 2020).
2722:
2493:
2236:
2234:
2232:
2174:
2170:
2168:
2166:
2164:
2162:
2160:
2158:
2156:
2154:
2152:
1201:adding citations to reliable sources
1168:
899:
535:Foreign invasions and mass migration
381:Natural disasters and climate change
5350:Extinction risk from climate change
5249:New World Order (conspiracy theory)
4702:
4556:
4018:Clinical Microbiology and Infection
3960:
3927:
3884:
3853:
3816:
3788:
3769:Fritts, Rachel (13 December 2019).
3759:
3739:
3730:
3690:
3612:Jean-François Hubert (8 May 2012).
3515:, Claire Russell and W.M.S. Russell
3399:
3154:
3090:
2576:
2241:Spinney, Laura (18 February 2020).
1861:John B. Calhoun's mouse experiments
1621:(1934–1961), the British historian
24:
6310:List of fictional doomsday devices
4856:Proceedings of the Royal Society B
4839:
4611:
4506:
4445:
4385:
4104:
4002:
3638:
2632:
2401:Ben Ehrenreich (4 November 2020).
2352:Spinney, Laura (17 January 2018).
2334:
1752:
1745:(1997) by the political scientist
1467:proposed an economic model called
861:happened as result of the ongoing
789:List of revolutions and rebellions
662:. The last Western Roman Emperor,
25:
6579:
5330:Cataclysmic pole shift hypothesis
4991:
4932:Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge;
4714:Kumar, Krishan (3 October 2014).
4697:The Collapse of Complex Societies
4521:The Collapse of Complex Societies
3970:Latham, Andrew (1 October 2020).
3834:LePan, Nicholas (14 March 2020).
2432:The Collapse of Complex Societies
2229:
2149:
2030:Failure mode and effects analysis
1615:In his acclaimed 12-volume work,
1399:Social and environmental dynamics
1011:The epidemic also devastated the
225:The Collapse of Complex Societies
89:) is the fall of a complex human
6520:
6508:
6496:
6446:
6445:
6433:
5591:Decline in amphibian populations
3419:Butzer, Karl W. (6 March 2012).
2723:Choi, Charles (24 August 2020).
2674:"The Myth of the "Fall" of Rome"
2461:Ronald K. Faulseit, ed. (2016).
1820:
1806:
1792:
1342:Military and civilian fatalities
1173:
840:defeating six competing factions
729:. Later Mongol leaders, such as
234:fall of the Western Roman Empire
187:, is a topic for specialists of
183:The study of societal collapse,
60:
36:
5942:Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse
5439:Land surface effects on climate
5412:Human impact on the environment
5043:Future of an expanding universe
4804:
4791:
4754:
4740:
4689:
4625:
4602:
4537:
4473:
4367:
4348:
4325:
4299:
4274:
4249:
4229:
4164:
4150:
4136:
4090:
4067:
4054:
3989:
3632:
3596:
3530:
3499:
3487:
3371:
3295:
3275:
3230:
3073:Hawkins, Ed (30 January 2020).
3025:
2990:
2959:
2928:
2885:
2826:
2776:
2742:
2716:
2665:
2605:
2513:
2494:Kemp, Luke (19 February 2019).
2487:
2454:
2175:Kemp, Luke (18 February 2019).
2121:
2088:
2075:
2062:
1946:Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
906:List of epidemics and pandemics
834:Between 481 BC and 221 BC, the
610:rose to power as leader of the
549:Between ca. 4000 and 3000 BCE,
27:Fall of a complex human society
4965:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.014
4911:. Washington DC: Island Press.
4395:Turchin, Peter (2 July 2008).
4377:. 5 April 2011. Archived from
3941:Walsh, Bryan (25 March 2020).
2672:Mark Damen (28 January 2017).
2439:
2366:
2275:
2194:
1733:The Evolution of Civilizations
1712:(idealization of the future),
1642:discussed the transition from
890:Crisis of the Late Middle Ages
880:coincided with the end of the
445:assassination of Julius Caesar
13:
1:
5888:Interpretations of Revelation
5690:Cosmological phase transition
5596:Decline in insect populations
5048:Ultimate fate of the universe
4750:– via Internet Archive.
4260:. PublicAffairs. p. 29.
3243:during the Neolithic Decline"
2906:10.1126/science.320.5881.1281
2614:Annual Review of Anthropology
2222:10.1016/j.futures.2022.103075
2142:
1731:expanded upon that theory in
507:A more recent example is the
222:frames societal collapse in
93:characterized by the loss of
6343:Future of Humanity Institute
5740:Potentially hazardous object
5640:Interplanetary contamination
2860:10.1371/journal.pone.0084814
2534:National Academy of Sciences
2068:See the end of the section '
1708:(idealization of the past),
836:Period of the Warring States
681:In the eleventh century AD,
7:
6223:Nemesis (hypothetical star)
5372:Global terrestrial stilling
4977:A Short History of Progress
4595:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.049
3894:Horgan, John (2 May 2019).
3494:The Great Mosque of Tlemcen
1785:
1506:Models of societal response
1469:energy return on investment
1451:Energy return on investment
1364:destroyed their environment
1346:
859:Russian famine of 1921–1922
10:
6584:
5735:Asteroid impact prediction
5710:Heat death of the universe
5120:Mutual assured destruction
4258:The Storm Before The Storm
3901:World History Encyclopedia
3704:World History Encyclopedia
3385:World History Encyclopedia
3260:10.1016/j.cell.2018.11.005
2972:AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
2941:AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
2804:10.1016/j.ijpp.2012.09.012
2430:Joseph A. Tainter (1988).
2268:10.1038/d41586-020-00436-3
1742:The Clash of Civilizations
1701:by the creative minority.
1307:
1161:Technological unemployment
1158:
1155:Institutional unemployment
1151:10 public-health threats.
1103:Native American population
930:(165–180 AD) to have been
903:
782:
545:Pre-modern human migration
538:
392:
278:
214:
158:Easter Island civilization
6427:
6361:
6353:Nuclear Threat Initiative
6330:
6286:List of apocalyptic films
6263:
6129:2011 end times prediction
6121:
5861:Prophecy of Seventy Weeks
5856:Abomination of desolation
5792:
5730:Asteroid impact avoidance
5667:
5578:
5560:List of extinction events
5535:
5528:
5494:
5402:Environmental degradation
5298:
5289:
5204:
5189:Technological singularity
5058:
5033:
5027:Global catastrophic risks
4733:10.1017/S0010417514000413
2201:Brozović, Danilo (2023).
1611:Toynbee's theory of decay
1310:Sub-replacement fertility
878:Great Famine of 1315–1317
650:and was plundered by the
565:, who had high levels of
413:Indus Valley Civilization
6348:Future of Life Institute
6250:Resurrection of the dead
6243:Post-tribulation rapture
5625:Colony collapse disorder
4762:Carroll Quigley (1979).
4695:Tainter, Joseph (1990),
4549:13 February 2014 at the
4238:Smallpox Through History
4084:17 December 2014 at the
4064:(1995) 160#8 pp. 369–73.
3922:National Geographic 2007
3725:National Geographic 2007
3670:Choi Byung Wook (2004).
3588:. proprietors. pp.
3570:National Geographic 2007
3555:National Geographic 2007
3525:National Geographic 2007
3482:National Geographic 2007
3470:National Geographic 2007
3225:National Geographic 2007
2771:National Geographic 2007
2127:For example, during the
2098:, which is close to the
2055:
1931:Global catastrophic risk
1534:Frederick Jackson Turner
1393:research and development
1144:resistant to antibiotics
799:Late Bronze Age Collapse
586:Late Bronze Age Collapse
555:Indo-European migrations
5174:Artificial intelligence
4639:National Science Review
4480:Turchin, Peter (2013).
4341:, A review of the book
4031:10.1111/1469-0691.12706
3438:10.1073/pnas.1114845109
3193:10.1073/pnas.0703073104
3121:10.1073/pnas.1104268108
2551:10.1073/pnas.1207552109
2309:10.1073/pnas.2218834120
2102:, or approximately the
2008:Sociocultural evolution
1653:The Decline of the West
973:in the Middle Ages and
674:, who declared himself
571:Indo-European languages
439:) is expelled into the
281:Societal transformation
255:societal transformation
172:, long-term decline of
170:extractive institutions
83:civilizational collapse
6303:List of disaster films
6144:Apocalyptic literature
5244:Malthusian catastrophe
5170:Synthetic intelligence
4869:10.1098/rspb.2012.2845
4499:10.21237/C7clio4221333
4397:"Arise 'cliodynamics'"
3585:The Chinese Repository
3079:climate-lab-book.ac.uk
1674:
1491:
1416:
1411:region suffered major
1367:
1343:
1072:
1057:the siege of that city
1036:
1021:overran the Sassanians
978:
915:
892:.) Recent analysis of
865:
802:
713:
599:
575:Early European Farmers
504:
473:
390:
347:Malthusian catastrophe
310:in India (24) and the
302:in South Asia and the
5685:Coronal mass ejection
5147:Electromagnetic pulse
5108:Kinetic energy weapon
4256:Duncan, Mike (2017).
3995:Robert Tignor et al.
3840:The Visual Capitalist
3542:23 April 2008 at the
3009:10.1130/2010.2471(11)
2112:First Indochinese War
1910:– rat colony collapse
1665:
1485:
1406:
1354:
1341:
1070:
1034:
1000:Procopius of Caesarea
969:
913:
856:
796:
707:
594:
563:Pontic–Caspian steppe
498:
467:
388:
71:by Thomas Cole (1836)
18:Social disintegration
6087:War of Gog and Magog
5764:Near-Earth supernova
5514:Human overpopulation
5318:Mass mortality event
5212:Anthropogenic hazard
4943:Ecological Economics
4360:25 June 2021 at the
4337:5 April 2011 at the
3496:, MuslimHeritage.com
2108:Partition of Vietnam
2070:Demographic dynamics
1936:Human overpopulation
1800:Civilizations portal
1747:Samuel P. Huntington
1459:Political scientist
1333:elite overproduction
1304:Demographic dynamics
1197:improve this section
1165:Economics of slavery
882:Medieval Warm Period
807:New Kingdom of Egypt
805:Around 1210 BC, the
769:Cham–Vietnamese wars
727:Islamic Central Asia
624:Western Roman Empire
620:Eastern Roman Empire
486:Medieval Warm Period
411:The highly advanced
335:cascade into another
320:Red Queen hypothesis
285:Community resilience
69:The Course of Empire
46:The Course of Empire
6563:Theories of history
6159:Blood moon prophecy
5952:Number of the Beast
5550:Holocene extinction
5496:Earth Overshoot Day
5444:Ocean acidification
5407:Habitat destruction
5397:Ecological collapse
5103:Kinetic bombardment
5038:Future of the Earth
4956:2014EcoEc.101...90M
4905:Homer-Dixon, Thomas
4586:2014EnPol..64..141H
4460:Washington Examiner
4413:2008Natur.454...34T
4245:on 29 October 2009.
4197:10.1038/nature13591
4189:2014Natur.514..494B
3871:The Washington Post
3727:, pp. 100–103.
3572:, pp. 244–245.
3557:, pp. 176–177.
3527:, pp. 166–167.
3511:27 May 2013 at the
3339:10.1038/nature14317
3331:2015Natur.522..207H
3227:, pp. 190–191.
3184:2007PNAS..10419214Z
3178:(49): 19214–19219.
3114:(42): 17296–17301.
3050:2020PhT....73i..17W
2984:2001AGUFM.U52B..07P
2953:2006AGUFM.T51D1553G
2900:(5881): 1282–1283.
2851:2013PLoSO...884814R
2542:2012PNAS..109E2030P
2300:2023PNAS..12018834S
2294:(48): e2218834120.
2259:2020Natur.578..355S
2050:Systems engineering
2035:Fault tree analysis
2003:Social cycle theory
1941:Medieval demography
1926:Ecological collapse
1384:diminishing returns
1378:The anthropologist
1216:"Societal collapse"
1127:History of smallpox
996:Plague of Justinian
984:Justinian the Great
975:early modern period
848:Great Wall of China
596:Barbarian invasions
174:cognitive abilities
6548:Doomsday scenarios
6474:Doomsday scenarios
6040:Beast of the Earth
5932:Book of Revelation
5720:Virtual black hole
5700:False vacuum decay
5650:Pollinator decline
5613:Biological warfare
5603:Biotechnology risk
5454:Resource depletion
4863:(1754): 20122845.
4651:10.1093/nsr/nww081
4553:TED talk, Feb 2003
4517:Tainter, Joseph A.
4077:(2014) 2#9 p. 38.
3773:. Earth Sciences.
3253:(1): 295–305.e10.
2407:The New York Times
2133:American Civil War
1988:Group cohesiveness
1618:A Study of History
1580:Tainter's critique
1492:
1461:Thomas Homer-Dixon
1417:
1413:political collapse
1368:
1344:
1073:
1049:Gabriele de’ Mussi
1037:
1015:in Persia. Caliph
979:
916:
866:
803:
714:
664:Romulus Augustulus
600:
505:
474:
406:4.2-kiloyear event
391:
355:resource depletion
329:Causes of collapse
300:Vedic civilization
275:Societal longevity
131:population decline
109:, and the rise of
105:, the downfall of
43:Destruction, from
6553:Economic problems
6543:Societal collapse
6484:
6483:
6315:Zombie apocalypse
6216:Postmillennialism
6011:Great Tribulation
5784:Stellar collision
5745:Near-Earth object
5695:Geomagnetic storm
5663:
5662:
5586:Biodiversity loss
5570:Genetic pollution
5524:
5523:
5313:Biodiversity loss
5276:Societal collapse
5254:Nuclear holocaust
5239:Economic collapse
5222:Doomsday argument
5140:Antimatter weapon
4926:978-0-86571-704-6
4901:
4823:978-1-4262-0091-5
4770:. Liberty Press.
4183:(7523): 494–497.
4129:978-0-465-02042-3
4062:Military medicine
3924:, pp. 84–85.
3896:"Antonine Plague"
3809:978-0-465-02042-3
3625:978-1-78042-964-9
3615:The Art of Champa
3484:, pp. 82–83.
3472:, pp. 94–97.
3431:(10): 3632–3639.
3315:(7555): 207–211.
3059:10.1063/PT.3.4563
3018:978-0-8137-2471-3
2773:, pp. 48–49.
2660:978-0-241-95868-1
2654:, 2005 and 2011 (
2586:(18 April 2017).
2253:(7795): 355–357.
1973:Economic collapse
1886:Social alienation
1775:income inequality
1697:together replace
1685:together replace
1636:dominant minority
1623:Arnold J. Toynbee
1328:carrying capacity
1324:population cycles
1277:
1276:
1269:
1251:
1055:, Crimea) during
961:Plague of Cyprian
900:Disease outbreaks
829:Twentieth Dynasty
773:uprising followed
746:. When Vietnam's
712:from 1206 to 1294
708:Expansion of the
628:Battle of Chalons
529:Holy Roman Empire
525:Thirty Years' War
501:Thirty Years' War
478:paleoclimatogical
259:Shmuel Eisenstadt
201:political science
154:Maya civilization
127:economic collapse
99:social complexity
95:cultural identity
79:Societal collapse
67:Desolation, from
16:(Redirected from
6575:
6525:
6524:
6513:
6512:
6501:
6500:
6499:
6492:
6449:
6448:
6440:World portal
6438:
6437:
6399:Financial crisis
6228:Nibiru cataclysm
6206:Premillennialism
6050:Dhul-Suwayqatayn
6018:Son of perdition
6006:Olivet Discourse
5982:Whore of Babylon
5608:Biological agent
5555:Human extinction
5545:Extinction event
5533:
5532:
5504:Overexploitation
5434:Land consumption
5429:Land degradation
5296:
5295:
5158:Micro black hole
5066:Chemical warfare
5020:
5013:
5006:
4997:
4996:
4969:
4967:
4891:
4890:
4880:
4847:Ehrlich, Paul R.
4835:
4798:
4795:
4789:
4788:
4786:
4784:
4769:
4758:
4752:
4751:
4744:
4738:
4737:
4735:
4711:
4700:
4693:
4687:
4686:
4680:
4672:
4662:
4629:
4623:
4618:
4609:
4606:
4600:
4599:
4597:
4565:
4554:
4541:
4535:
4534:
4513:
4504:
4503:
4501:
4477:
4471:
4470:
4468:
4466:
4452:
4443:
4442:
4424:
4392:
4383:
4382:
4381:on 5 April 2011.
4371:
4365:
4352:
4346:
4329:
4323:
4322:
4320:
4318:
4313:. 5 January 2023
4303:
4297:
4296:
4294:
4292:
4278:
4272:
4271:
4253:
4247:
4246:
4241:. Archived from
4233:
4227:
4226:
4216:
4168:
4162:
4161:
4154:
4148:
4147:
4140:
4134:
4133:
4115:
4102:
4101:
4094:
4088:
4071:
4065:
4058:
4052:
4051:
4033:
4009:
4000:
3993:
3987:
3986:
3984:
3982:
3976:The Conversation
3967:
3958:
3957:
3955:
3953:
3938:
3925:
3919:
3913:
3912:
3910:
3908:
3891:
3882:
3881:
3879:
3877:
3862:
3851:
3850:
3848:
3846:
3831:
3814:
3813:
3795:
3786:
3785:
3783:
3781:
3766:
3757:
3756:
3754:
3752:
3737:
3728:
3722:
3716:
3715:
3713:
3711:
3694:
3688:
3687:
3667:
3661:
3660:
3658:
3656:
3647:. Archived from
3636:
3630:
3629:
3609:
3603:
3600:
3594:
3593:
3579:
3573:
3567:
3558:
3552:
3546:
3534:
3528:
3522:
3516:
3503:
3497:
3491:
3485:
3479:
3473:
3467:
3461:
3460:
3450:
3440:
3416:
3397:
3396:
3394:
3392:
3375:
3369:
3368:
3358:
3324:
3299:
3293:
3292:
3279:
3273:
3272:
3262:
3234:
3228:
3222:
3216:
3215:
3205:
3195:
3163:
3152:
3151:
3133:
3123:
3099:
3088:
3086:
3070:
3064:
3063:
3061:
3029:
3023:
3022:
2994:
2988:
2987:
2963:
2957:
2956:
2932:
2926:
2925:
2894:Science Magazine
2889:
2883:
2882:
2872:
2862:
2830:
2824:
2823:
2798:(2–3): 136–147.
2789:
2780:
2774:
2768:
2762:
2761:
2759:
2757:
2746:
2740:
2739:
2737:
2735:
2729:Science Magazine
2720:
2714:
2713:
2711:
2709:
2694:
2685:
2684:
2682:
2680:
2669:
2663:
2639:
2630:
2629:
2609:
2603:
2602:
2600:
2598:
2580:
2574:
2573:
2563:
2553:
2517:
2511:
2510:
2508:
2506:
2491:
2485:
2484:
2476:
2467:
2466:
2458:
2452:
2451:
2443:
2437:
2435:
2427:
2418:
2417:
2415:
2413:
2398:
2392:
2391:
2389:
2387:
2370:
2364:
2363:
2349:
2332:
2331:
2321:
2311:
2279:
2273:
2272:
2270:
2238:
2227:
2226:
2224:
2198:
2192:
2191:
2189:
2187:
2172:
2136:
2125:
2119:
2092:
2086:
2079:
2073:
2066:
1856:Human extinction
1830:
1825:
1824:
1816:
1811:
1810:
1809:
1802:
1797:
1796:
1795:
1760:systems thinking
1421:hunter-gatherers
1272:
1265:
1261:
1258:
1252:
1250:
1209:
1177:
1169:
971:Plague epidemics
752:bloody civil war
748:Later Lê dynasty
723:Mongol invasions
668:dethroned in 476
660:terminal decline
640:Germanic peoples
87:systems collapse
64:
40:
21:
6583:
6582:
6578:
6577:
6576:
6574:
6573:
6572:
6533:
6532:
6531:
6519:
6507:
6497:
6495:
6487:
6485:
6480:
6459:Future problems
6432:
6423:
6357:
6326:
6293:Climate fiction
6259:
6134:2012 phenomenon
6117:
6023:Sheep and Goats
5910:2 Thessalonians
5788:
5705:Gamma-ray burst
5659:
5574:
5565:Genetic erosion
5520:
5490:
5481:Water pollution
5449:Ozone depletion
5345:Desertification
5285:
5200:
5135:Doomsday device
5115:Nuclear warfare
5054:
5029:
5024:
4994:
4934:Kalnay, Eugenia
4842:
4840:Further reading
4824:
4807:
4802:
4801:
4796:
4792:
4782:
4780:
4778:
4759:
4755:
4746:
4745:
4741:
4712:
4703:
4694:
4690:
4674:
4673:
4630:
4626:
4619:
4612:
4607:
4603:
4566:
4557:
4551:Wayback Machine
4542:
4538:
4531:
4514:
4507:
4478:
4474:
4464:
4462:
4454:
4453:
4446:
4422:10.1038/454034a
4393:
4386:
4373:
4372:
4368:
4362:Wayback Machine
4353:
4349:
4339:Wayback Machine
4330:
4326:
4316:
4314:
4305:
4304:
4300:
4290:
4288:
4280:
4279:
4275:
4268:
4254:
4250:
4235:
4234:
4230:
4169:
4165:
4156:
4155:
4151:
4142:
4141:
4137:
4130:
4116:
4105:
4096:
4095:
4091:
4086:Wayback Machine
4072:
4068:
4059:
4055:
4010:
4003:
3994:
3990:
3980:
3978:
3968:
3961:
3951:
3949:
3939:
3928:
3920:
3916:
3906:
3904:
3892:
3885:
3875:
3873:
3863:
3854:
3844:
3842:
3832:
3817:
3810:
3796:
3789:
3779:
3777:
3767:
3760:
3750:
3748:
3738:
3731:
3723:
3719:
3709:
3707:
3695:
3691:
3684:
3668:
3664:
3654:
3652:
3651:on 26 June 2015
3637:
3633:
3626:
3610:
3606:
3601:
3597:
3580:
3576:
3568:
3561:
3553:
3549:
3544:Wayback Machine
3535:
3531:
3523:
3519:
3513:Wayback Machine
3504:
3500:
3492:
3488:
3480:
3476:
3468:
3464:
3417:
3400:
3390:
3388:
3376:
3372:
3300:
3296:
3281:
3280:
3276:
3241:Yersinia pestis
3235:
3231:
3223:
3219:
3164:
3155:
3100:
3091:
3071:
3067:
3030:
3026:
3019:
2995:
2991:
2964:
2960:
2933:
2929:
2890:
2886:
2831:
2827:
2787:
2781:
2777:
2769:
2765:
2755:
2753:
2748:
2747:
2743:
2733:
2731:
2721:
2717:
2707:
2705:
2695:
2688:
2678:
2676:
2670:
2666:
2640:
2633:
2610:
2606:
2596:
2594:
2581:
2577:
2536:: E2030–E2031.
2518:
2514:
2504:
2502:
2492:
2488:
2477:
2470:
2459:
2455:
2444:
2440:
2428:
2421:
2411:
2409:
2399:
2395:
2385:
2383:
2380:The Independent
2371:
2367:
2350:
2335:
2280:
2276:
2239:
2230:
2199:
2195:
2185:
2183:
2173:
2150:
2145:
2140:
2139:
2129:Napoleonic Wars
2126:
2122:
2106:, used for the
2093:
2089:
2080:
2076:
2067:
2063:
2058:
2045:Risk assessment
2040:Hazard analysis
2024:Systems science
1908:Behavioral sink
1826:
1819:
1812:
1807:
1805:
1798:
1793:
1791:
1788:
1755:
1753:Systems science
1729:Carroll Quigley
1661:Universal State
1640:Oswald Spengler
1613:
1582:
1538:Frontier Thesis
1508:
1453:
1401:
1388:Oswald Spengler
1376:
1358:suggested that
1349:
1312:
1306:
1273:
1262:
1256:
1253:
1210:
1208:
1194:
1178:
1167:
1157:
1094:river blindness
1013:Sasanian Empire
1005:Yersinia pestis
946:and Co-Emperor
944:Marcus Aurelius
928:Antonine Plague
908:
902:
791:
785:List of famines
781:
559:Yamnaya culture
547:
537:
517:Maunder Minimum
438:
402:Akkadian Empire
397:
383:
331:
314:in China (14).
296:Aksumite Empire
292:Kushite Kingdom
287:
279:Main articles:
277:
217:
209:complex systems
103:adaptive system
81:(also known as
76:
75:
74:
73:
72:
65:
56:
55:
54:
41:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
6581:
6571:
6570:
6565:
6560:
6558:Social systems
6555:
6550:
6545:
6530:
6529:
6517:
6505:
6482:
6481:
6479:
6478:
6477:
6476:
6471:
6466:
6461:
6456:
6454:Apocalypticism
6443:
6428:
6425:
6424:
6422:
6421:
6416:
6411:
6406:
6401:
6396:
6391:
6386:
6381:
6376:
6371:
6365:
6363:
6359:
6358:
6356:
6355:
6350:
6345:
6340:
6334:
6332:
6328:
6327:
6325:
6324:
6323:
6322:
6312:
6307:
6306:
6305:
6298:Disaster films
6295:
6290:
6289:
6288:
6283:
6273:
6271:Alien invasion
6267:
6265:
6261:
6260:
6258:
6257:
6252:
6247:
6246:
6245:
6240:
6230:
6225:
6220:
6219:
6218:
6213:
6211:Amillennialism
6208:
6198:
6196:Millenarianism
6193:
6192:
6191:
6181:
6176:
6171:
6166:
6161:
6156:
6151:
6149:Apocalypticism
6146:
6141:
6136:
6131:
6125:
6123:
6119:
6118:
6116:
6115:
6114:
6113:
6103:
6098:
6097:
6096:
6095:
6094:
6089:
6084:
6074:
6073:
6072:
6067:
6062:
6057:
6052:
6047:
6045:Dhu al-Qarnayn
6042:
6037:
6027:
6026:
6025:
6020:
6015:
6014:
6013:
6003:
5998:
5993:
5991:Great Apostasy
5988:
5987:
5986:
5985:
5984:
5979:
5974:
5969:
5964:
5959:
5954:
5949:
5944:
5929:
5924:
5923:
5922:
5917:
5907:
5902:
5897:
5892:
5891:
5890:
5880:
5870:
5865:
5864:
5863:
5858:
5848:
5838:
5836:Last Judgement
5833:
5832:
5831:
5826:
5816:
5815:
5814:
5809:
5798:
5796:
5794:Eschatological
5790:
5789:
5787:
5786:
5781:
5776:
5771:
5766:
5761:
5760:
5759:
5754:
5749:
5748:
5747:
5737:
5732:
5722:
5717:
5712:
5707:
5702:
5697:
5692:
5687:
5682:
5677:
5671:
5669:
5665:
5664:
5661:
5660:
5658:
5657:
5652:
5647:
5642:
5637:
5632:
5627:
5622:
5621:
5620:
5615:
5610:
5600:
5599:
5598:
5593:
5582:
5580:
5576:
5575:
5573:
5572:
5567:
5562:
5557:
5552:
5547:
5541:
5539:
5530:
5526:
5525:
5522:
5521:
5519:
5518:
5517:
5516:
5509:Overpopulation
5506:
5500:
5498:
5492:
5491:
5489:
5488:
5486:Water scarcity
5483:
5478:
5473:
5472:
5471:
5461:
5459:Sea level rise
5456:
5451:
5446:
5441:
5436:
5431:
5426:
5425:
5424:
5422:on marine life
5419:
5409:
5404:
5399:
5394:
5389:
5384:
5379:
5377:Global warming
5374:
5369:
5367:Global dimming
5364:
5359:
5358:
5357:
5347:
5342:
5337:
5332:
5327:
5325:Cascade effect
5322:
5321:
5320:
5310:
5304:
5302:
5300:Climate change
5293:
5287:
5286:
5284:
5283:
5278:
5273:
5272:
5271:
5266:
5261:
5251:
5246:
5241:
5236:
5235:
5234:
5229:
5219:
5214:
5208:
5206:
5202:
5201:
5199:
5198:
5193:
5192:
5191:
5186:
5181:
5167:
5166:
5165:
5160:
5150:
5144:
5143:
5142:
5137:
5132:
5130:Doomsday Clock
5127:
5122:
5112:
5111:
5110:
5100:
5095:
5090:
5089:
5088:
5083:
5081:Cyberterrorism
5078:
5068:
5062:
5060:
5056:
5055:
5053:
5052:
5051:
5050:
5040:
5034:
5031:
5030:
5023:
5022:
5015:
5008:
5000:
4993:
4992:External links
4990:
4989:
4988:
4973:Wright, Ronald
4970:
4929:
4912:
4902:
4900:by the authors
4841:
4838:
4837:
4836:
4822:
4806:
4803:
4800:
4799:
4790:
4776:
4753:
4739:
4726:(4): 815–843.
4701:
4688:
4645:(4): 470–494.
4624:
4610:
4601:
4555:
4536:
4529:
4505:
4472:
4444:
4407:(7200): 34–5.
4384:
4366:
4347:
4324:
4298:
4273:
4266:
4248:
4228:
4163:
4149:
4135:
4128:
4103:
4089:
4066:
4053:
4001:
3988:
3959:
3926:
3914:
3883:
3852:
3815:
3808:
3787:
3758:
3740:Johnson, Ben.
3729:
3717:
3689:
3682:
3662:
3631:
3624:
3604:
3595:
3574:
3559:
3547:
3529:
3517:
3498:
3486:
3474:
3462:
3398:
3370:
3294:
3274:
3229:
3217:
3153:
3089:
3065:
3024:
3017:
2989:
2958:
2927:
2884:
2845:(12): e84814.
2825:
2775:
2763:
2741:
2715:
2686:
2664:
2631:
2604:
2575:
2512:
2486:
2483:. p. 242.
2468:
2453:
2438:
2419:
2393:
2365:
2333:
2274:
2228:
2193:
2147:
2146:
2144:
2141:
2138:
2137:
2120:
2087:
2074:
2060:
2059:
2057:
2054:
2053:
2052:
2047:
2042:
2037:
2032:
2026:
2025:
2021:
2020:
2015:
2013:State collapse
2010:
2005:
2000:
1995:
1993:Language death
1990:
1985:
1980:
1975:
1970:
1965:
1959:
1958:
1954:
1953:
1948:
1943:
1938:
1933:
1928:
1923:
1916:
1911:
1905:
1899:
1898:
1894:
1893:
1888:
1883:
1878:
1873:
1871:Millenarianism
1868:
1863:
1858:
1853:
1848:
1843:
1838:
1836:Apocalypticism
1832:
1831:
1828:Society portal
1817:
1814:History portal
1803:
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1727:The historian
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1557:House of Cards
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1512:Joseph Tainter
1507:
1504:
1490:was abandoned.
1463:and ecologist
1452:
1449:
1400:
1397:
1380:Joseph Tainter
1375:
1372:
1362:'s society so
1348:
1345:
1308:Main article:
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1302:
1275:
1274:
1181:
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1172:
1156:
1153:
1135:jump to humans
1109:was caused by
1082:whooping cough
1041:bubonic plague
901:
898:
886:Mount Tarawera
816:Battle of Xois
780:
777:
670:by the German
536:
533:
513:Little Ice Age
470:global warming
436:
433:sulfur dioxide
393:Main article:
382:
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351:overpopulation
339:nonlinearities
330:
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220:Joseph Tainter
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139:mass migration
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6469:Risk analysis
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6255:World to come
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6201:Millennialism
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6189:Messianic Age
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6174:Gog and Magog
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6164:Earth Changes
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6001:New Jerusalem
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5977:War in Heaven
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5972:Two witnesses
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5841:Second Coming
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5340:Deforestation
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5281:World War III
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5196:Transhumanism
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5059:Technological
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4574:Energy Policy
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4530:0-521-38673-X
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4286:sites.psu.edu
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4267:9781610397216
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3699:"Sea Peoples"
3693:
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3683:0-87727-138-0
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3380:"Sea Peoples"
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3038:Physics Today
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2947:: T51D–1553.
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2653:
2652:Penguin Books
2649:
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2643:
2642:Jared Diamond
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2593:
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2584:Nuwer, Rachel
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2359:New Scientist
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2104:17th Parallel
2101:
2100:Bến Hải River
2097:
2091:
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2028:
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2019:
2016:
2014:
2011:
2009:
2006:
2004:
2001:
1999:
1998:Progress trap
1996:
1994:
1991:
1989:
1986:
1984:
1983:Fragile state
1981:
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1969:
1966:
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1942:
1939:
1937:
1934:
1932:
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1915:
1914:Catastrophism
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1851:Doomsday cult
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1823:
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1772:
1771:Peter Turchin
1767:
1765:
1761:
1750:
1748:
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1730:
1725:
1723:
1719:
1718:transcendence
1715:
1711:
1707:
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1696:
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1673:
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1637:
1631:
1629:
1628:civilizations
1624:
1620:
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1591:
1590:
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1539:
1535:
1532:
1528:
1527:Runaway Train
1524:
1521:
1517:
1516:
1515:
1513:
1510:According to
1503:
1500:
1496:
1489:
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1472:
1470:
1466:
1462:
1457:
1448:
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1445:
1439:
1437:
1433:
1428:
1426:
1425:self limiting
1422:
1414:
1410:
1405:
1396:
1394:
1389:
1385:
1381:
1371:
1365:
1361:
1360:Easter Island
1357:
1356:Jared Diamond
1353:
1340:
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1329:
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1225:
1221:
1218: –
1217:
1213:
1212:Find sources:
1206:
1202:
1198:
1192:
1191:
1187:
1182:This section
1180:
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5957:Seven bowls
5883:Historicism
5779:Solar flare
5655:Overfishing
5630:Defaunation
5417:coral reefs
5179:AI takeover
5098:Nanoweapons
5086:Cybergeddon
5071:Cyberattack
4580:: 141–152.
3746:Historic UK
2978:: U52B–07.
2597:6 September
2505:6 September
2412:10 February
2186:5 September
2116:Vietnam War
2096:Gianh River
2018:Urban decay
1891:Weltschmerz
1881:Survivalism
1669:Proletariat
1045:Black Death
871:cannibalism
857:The deadly
812:Sea Peoples
797:Map of the
735:Mesopotamia
699:Ibn Khaldun
691:Banu Sulaym
632:Roman Italy
582:Sea Peoples
490:Black Death
375:transformed
312:Qin dynasty
269:Mesoamerica
143:incompetent
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6537:Categories
6379:Depression
6369:Ransomware
6184:Messianism
6154:Armageddon
6139:Apocalypse
5927:Antichrist
5915:Man of sin
5812:Three Ages
5675:Big Crunch
5537:Extinction
5529:Biological
5291:Ecological
5163:Strangelet
4975:. (2004).
4950:: 90–102.
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2679:9 February
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2500:BBC Future
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2110:after the
1920:Earth 2100
1714:detachment
1687:creativity
1569:subversion
1563:and other
1436:Malthusian
1432:complexity
1257:April 2024
1227:newspapers
1159:See also:
1139:penicillin
1122:Aboriginal
988:Belisarius
904:See also:
894:tree rings
783:See also:
695:Banu Hilal
689:tribes of
541:Bond event
539:See also:
360:revolution
251:resilience
245:(2005) by
178:creativity
176:, loss of
166:inequality
156:, and the
119:pestilence
107:government
6568:Dark ages
6264:Fictional
6111:Saoshyant
5996:New Earth
5967:The Beast
5900:Preterism
5873:Christian
5829:Kali Yuga
5774:Micronova
5769:Hypernova
5635:Dysgenics
5476:Verneshot
5382:Hypercane
5125:Dead Hand
4928:, 464 pp.
4832:144922970
4311:mises.org
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2734:31 August
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1963:Civil war
1951:Overshoot
1866:Lost city
1841:Decadence
1695:martyrdom
1565:communist
1477:petroleum
1317:sex ratio
1184:does not
1111:Old World
1107:New World
1053:Feodossia
1026:feudalism
940:Silk Road
863:civil war
825:inflation
765:Minh Mạng
761:Phan Rang
644:Visigoths
561:from the
519:involved
455:Cleopatra
230:political
197:sociology
135:overshoot
6515:Politics
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6389:Epidemic
6384:Droughts
6238:Prewrath
6169:End time
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